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Orioles Sign Alex Cobb

By Mark Polishuk | March 21, 2018 at 5:03pm CDT

TODAY, 5:03pm: Heyman has the layout of Cobb’s contract (Twitter link). He’ll make $14MM in each year from 2018-2020, including $6.5MM deferred without interest this season and $4.5MM deferred without interest in both ’19 and ’20. Cobb will earn $15MM in 2021 and either $4.75MM deferred without interest or $9.75MM deferred without interest, if he throws fewer than 130 innings. If he amasses 180 innings in any of those seasons, he’ll rake in an extra $500K.

9:38am: Cobb has passed the notoriously stringent Orioles’ physical, Heyman tweets, making the deal official. It has also been announced by the organization.

The deal includes a no-trade provision, Heyman adds on Twitter. Cobb picks up full no-trade rights until this coming November and will be able to block deals to ten clubs from that point forward.

There’ll be $20MM in deferred money, Kubatko tweets, though the precise manner of the structure has yet to be reported. When that’s factored in, the present-day value of the deal is $47MM, he adds, though that is a number that’s certainly subject to quite a bit of interpretation. Every multi-year deal, after all, includes future obligations that can be discounted to a lump-sum current dollar amount, and the math is dependent upon what approach is utilized to perform the discount.

YESTERDAY, 9:19PM: Cobb and the Orioles have agreed that he’ll begin the season in the minors for a brief spell in order to get properly stretched out, BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly reports. Cobb had enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment even though he has an option remaining, though obviously both sides felt a short stint on the farm was necessary.

6:53PM: The four-year deal will be worth $57MM, an MLB official tells 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link). There is deferred money in each of the four years, Kubatko tweets.

6:06PM: The Orioles have agreed to sign right-hander Alex Cobb, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reporting (Twitter link) that the two sides had worked out a four-year deal believed to be worth close to $60MM. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported earlier today that there was “a strong belief” that Cobb was close to a contract, with the Orioles considered to be the favorite. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) confirmed the link between Cobb and the O’s, and noted that the deal will be official once Cobb passes a physical, while MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko was the first to report that the deal was a four-year agreement. Cobb is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Cobb was long seen as a natural fit for the Orioles given their severe need for starting pitching, and the team indeed reportedly expressed interest in Cobb quite early in the offseason. While it wasn’t necessarily a surprise to see the two sides end up in an agreement, however, there are some eyebrow-raising elements to this signing given the size and length of the contract.

As Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players were forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market. Lance Lynn, for instance, was Cobb’s closest comparable on the open market and Lynn wound up signing a one-year, $12MM deal with the Twins. Lynn, however, was also in talks with the Orioles and potentially left a longer-term offer on the table in order to sign with Minnesota, believing that the Twins had a better shot at contending in 2018.

Lynn’s rejection could have been what inspired the Orioles to give Cobb four years to solidify its rotation, as it was believed that the club was no longer willing to go beyond a three-year contract for a pitcher in the wake of the disastrous Ubaldo Jimenez signing. Furthermore, the organization has long been very particular about signing veteran pitchers due to injury concerns, so it represents a bold step for owner Peter Angelos to sign off the biggest pitcher contract in franchise history for Cobb, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. (It’s worth noting that the O’s have changed or even abandoned agreements in the past due to concerns about pitcher health, so Cobb’s physical probably represents a bigger final hurdle than usual in most player signings.)

While many free agents left this winter’s market feeling short-changed, Cobb ended up finding his desired four-year guarantee and a very healthy salary. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Cobb 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $48MM deal. Heyman reports that Cobb rejected an offer of that exact size from the Cubs earlier this winter, and despite the free agent deep freeze, eventually landed a more lucrative deal.

[Updated Orioles depth chart at Roster Resource]

It may be too close to Opening Day for Cobb to be ready for the very beginning of the season, though when he is set, the 30-year-old could very well be the ace of Baltimore’s rotation. The O’s went into the offseason with only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy established in the starting five, and were in talks about a wide variety of free agent and trade possibilities. Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette has developed a pattern of late-winter signings during his time in Baltimore, and he stuck to that strategy again this year to rebuild his rotation, signing Andrew Cashner, re-signing Chris Tillman, and now adding Cobb within the last five weeks.

Cobb provides Baltimore with a solid, AL East-tested arm who looked to be front-of-the-rotation material in 2013-14 before getting his TJ surgery in 2015. The procedure cost Cobb all of that season and limited him to just five starts in 2016, though he rebounded for a 3.66 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 179 1/3 innings for the Rays last season. The post-surgery version of Cobb is striking out fewer batters than the pre-2015 Cobb, and his already-middling swinging strike rate took another drop to just 6.7% last season, plus his 36.9% hard-hit ball rate was a career high.

These concerns notwithstanding, it should be noted that Cobb pitched better as the season wore on, which is a good sign that he could fully back to his old self. Even the 2017 version of Cobb would represent a big upgrade for the Orioles over fifth starter candidates such as Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr. or Miguel Castro. The O’s now face some roster-shuffling questions with these arms (Wright is out of options and Cortes is a Rule 5 pick), though they could all possibly be used in the bullpen.

Needless to say, this surplus of arms is now an unexpectedly good problem to have for an Orioles team that has positioned itself to stay competitive within a tough AL East. The length of Cobb’s deal also indicates that the O’s aren’t planning for a rebuild after 2018. Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach will all be free agents next winter (plus Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are entering their last year under contract), though Baltimore now has Cobb, Gausman, Bundy, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens, and Chris Davis as core pieces through at least the 2020 season, plus prospects like Austin Hays and Chance Sisco.

Since Cobb rejected a qualifying offer from the Rays, the O’s will have to surrender their third-highest pick (51st overall) in the 2018 amateur draft, as they were a revenue-sharing recipient that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold. Because Cobb received more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the Rays are now in line to receive a compensation pick after the first round of the draft. This will actually be one of two picks for Tampa Bay in the “sandwich round,” as the Rays are also slated for a compensatory pick for not signing 31st-overall pick Drew Rasmussen in last year’s draft class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Orioles Close To Agreement With Alex Cobb

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2018 at 5:50pm CDT

5:50PM: If completed, the deal would be a four-year pact, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link).

5:19PM: Rosenthal hears from a source that a deal is indeed close, though the three-year/$50MM terms from Rosenthal’s previous report are “not accurate.”

4:39PM: Right-hander Alex Cobb’s long stay in the free agent market could be nearing an end, as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link) “there’s a strong belief that” Cobb is closing in on a new contract. The Orioles are considered by most to be the favorites to sign the 30-year-old, according to Passan, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports that the deal between the two sides is expected to be at least a three-year pact. Rosenthal adds that the O’s and Cobb had been discussing contracts in the range of three years and $50MM.

Cobb and the O’s have been linked for much of the offseason, as the righty was a natural fit for a Baltimore team that entered the winter with a dire need for pitching. The Orioles have already turned to free agency to sign Andrew Cashner and re-sign Chris Tillman, with those two veterans slotting in behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy in the rotation. Cobb would not only be a decided upgrade over current fifth starter candidates Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr., and Miguel Castro, but the argument could be made that Cobb would be the best starter on Baltimore’s entire staff.

As Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players (i.e. Lance Lynn, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Logan Morrison, Neil Walker) have been forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market. Given this environment, a deal in the $50MM neighborhood would be a particularly nice result for Cobb and his representatives at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. That would actually be higher than the $48MM MLB Trade Rumors predicted Cobb would receive when we ranked him 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, though we projected that $48MM to come over a four-year contract.

Astros Extend Jose Altuve

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2018 at 1:44pm CDT

The Astros have officially struck a massive extension with star second baseman Jose Altuve. The deal, which includes a full no-trade clause, reportedly promises Altuve $151MM over five seasons.

Altuve is already under contract through 2019, a season the Astros control through a $6.5MM club option under the incredibly team-friendly deal the sides struck back in 2013. Of course, at the time, the second baseman was nowhere near the top-line performer he is today. Altuve has since changed representation, joining the Boras Corporation.

The new contract will begin at the conclusion of his existing deal, meaning the five-year term will begin with the 2020 campaign. This pact, then, will give Houston control over Altuve through the 2024 season, which will be his age-34 effort.

Altuve receives $21MM in the form of a signing bonus, with $1MM due upon final approval of the contract, $10MM later this season and $10MM in 2019. The contract provides a $26MM annual salary in each of the five seasons. That rate can escalate in the final three years of the contract depending upon his performance in the MVP voting, with a $3MM bump for a first-place finish, a $2MM bump for a second-place showing, and $1MM if he comes in third, allowing for maximum increases of $3MM, $6MM, and then $9MM in the 2022-24 campaigns.

Houston is wrapping up a historic season in which the organization broke through with a World Series title. Altuve was a central component of that undertaking. He qualified for his fourth-straight All-Star game, won his third batting title in four seasons, and capped things off by taking home honors as the Most Valuable Player in the American League.

Despite his diminutive stature, Altuve has developed into an offensive force. He put up high-quality campaigns in 2014 and 2015 before going to another level over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2016, Altuve carries a .341/.403/.539 batting line with 48 home runs. He doesn’t walk all that much and has traded just a bit of his impeccable contact ability for some additional pop, but Altuve still maintained a quality K/BB ratio (12.7% strikeout rate vs. 8.8% walk rate) in 2017.

That’s rare air for a middle infielder, making Altuve all the more valuable. While he has generally graded out as an average performer at second, there’s also value in his legs. He has already swipe 231 bags in his career and was credited with creating four runs on the bases in 2017 by Fangraphs’ BsR measure.

The new contract rewards one of the game’s best players with a significant new payday, and does so two full seasons before he’d have reached the open market. As McTaggart notes, this will easily be the largest deal ever struck in team history, handily topping the $100MM Carlos Lee contract.

Though the deal only covers five additional seasons, it does so at a top-level rate of pay. This contract is just the sixth in MLB history that includes an average annual value of over $30MM and is easily the largest extension for a second baseman cataloged in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker.

MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart first reported the agreement. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted that the agreement was in place and reported the financial details in a series of tweets. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported the no-trade clause on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Justin Turner Diagnosed With Broken Wrist

By Jeff Todd | March 20, 2018 at 12:42pm CDT

TODAY: Turner will not require surgery to repair the fracture, he tells MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (Twitter link). In fact, he’ll be able to begin working on regaining his range of motion after spending a few days in a brace. That seems like generally promising news, though clearly Turner will still be out to open the season.

YESTERDAY: Star Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner has been diagnosed with a broken left wrist after being hit by a pitch in tonight’s spring game, manager Dave Roberts said after the contest. (H/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter). The unfortunate news strikes a blow to the defending National League champs less than two weeks before the start of the 2018 season.

Turner says it’s a “small, non-displaced fracture,” as Pedro Moura of The Athletic tweets, though we’ll need to await further information before it’s clear how long he’ll be out. Precise details of the injury, as well as its course of treatment and how the veteran proceeds through rehab, will obviously dictate the timeline. It seems clear, based upon generally similar past injuries, that Turner won’t be available for Opening Day and will be out for at least six weeks or so.

The 33-year-old Turner has been among the game’s more productive players in recent seasons. While he has dealt with some injuries, only once appearing in over 130 games since breaking out in Los Angeles, Turner has racked up 18.8 rWAR and 18.2 fWAR over the past four campaigns. He was never better at the plate than in 2017, when he posted an outstanding .322/.415/.530 slash with 21 home runs and more walks (59) than strikeouts (56) over 543 plate appearances.

Replacing that production isn’t reasonably possible, though the Dodgers are about as well-equipped as any team to do so. The club can bump Logan Forsythe to the hot corner while utilizing any number of players at second base. Veteran Chase Utley will no doubt see plenty off time against right-handers, as had already been expected, while versatile right-handed hitters Austin Barnes and Enrique Hernandez will surely also factor into the infield mix.

The injury to Turner will open an opportunity for another player to join the roster to open the season. It’s possible the club could carry an infielder such as Jake Peter or Donovan Solano, neither of whom is on the 40-man, though perhaps the likelier scenario is to keep another outfielder while utilizing Hernandez more on the dirt. Los Angeles is facing tough decisions on players such as Matt Kemp, Joc Pederson, Andrew Toles, and the out-of-options Trayce Thompson, so the injury to Turner could allow the club to keep one more of those names. Alternatively, the Dodgers could break camp with Kyle Farmer as a reserve catcher while giving Barnes more time at second base. Needless to say, there are plenty of possibilities.

Twins’ Jorge Polanco Gets 80-Game Suspension

By Connor Byrne | March 18, 2018 at 4:02pm CDT

Major League Baseball has handed Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco an 80-game suspension without pay for testing positive for Stanozolol, a performance-enhancing substance, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com tweets. Polanco issued a statement in response to the ban (all of which is available here via Bollinger), saying that he “regretfully accepted” the suspension, but he “did not intentionally consume this steroid.”

“The substance that I requested from my athletic trainer in the Dominican Republic and consented to take was a combination of vitamin B12 and an iron supplement, something that is not unusual or illegal for professional athletes to take. Unfortunately, what I was given was not that supplement and I take full responsibility for what is in my body,” said Polanco, who added that he’d like to fight the punishment, but he’ll avoid doing it in the best interest of the Twins organization.

The Twins issued their own response, stating: “We were disappointed to learn of the suspension of Jorge Polanco for violating Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. We fully support Major League Baseball’s policy and its efforts to eliminate performance enhancing substances from our game. Per the protocol outlined in the Joint Drug Program, the Minnesota Twins will not comment further on this matter.”

[RELATED: Twins Depth Chart]

This is a tough late-spring development for Minnesota, a playoff hopeful that had the 24-year-old Polanco penciled in as its starting shortstop. Polanco filled that role in 2017 for the playoff-bound Twins and accounted for 1.6 fWAR across 544 plate appearances during his first full season in the majors. The switch-hitter batted .256/.313/.410 with 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases on the offensive side, and he posted minus-1 DRS and minus-4.3 UZR as a defender.

With Polanco set to miss half the season, the Twins are likely to give short to Eduardo Escobar, while Ehire Adrianza will act as his main backup and minor league signing/experienced veteran Erick Aybar could also make the team, per Bollinger. Additionally, the Twins have 22-year-old middle infielder Nick Gordon, who ranks as MLB.com’s 80th-best prospect, but it doesn’t seem they’ll turn to him yet.

Rockies Re-Sign Carlos Gonzalez

By Steve Adams | March 16, 2018 at 2:00pm CDT

March 16: ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Gonzalez is actually guaranteed just $5MM on his deal with the Rox, though he can earn $3MM of incentives quite easily (Twitter link). Per Crasnick, Gonzalez will earn a $1MM bonus for accruing 125, 150 and 175 days of Major League service time this season. In other words, as long as he’s on an active roster or disabled list (be it the Rockies’ or another team) for that number of days, he’ll receive those bonuses. In effect, he’ll get that $3MM so long as he isn’t released.

March 12: The club has announced the signing.

March 9, 12:23pm: Gonzalez will be guaranteed $8MM on his deal with the Rockies, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link).

9:44am: The Rockies are reportedly set to bring right fielder Carlos Gonzalez back to Denver. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the two sides are merely working through the final language details of the contract, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds that there’s an agreement “in principle” on a one-year pact. Heyman reported last night that the two sides were close to an agreement on a one-year deal. Gonzalez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

A reunion between the two sides has been reported to be a possibility for much of the offseason, but CarGo remained on the market well into Spring Training as he explored all opportunities. He’ll now return to the team with which he broke out as a star-caliber player back in 2010 and the team which he has thrice represented at the All-Star Game over the past nine seasons.

Gonzalez, 32, picked a poor time to struggle through one of the worst seasons of his big league career. The slugger posted a .262/.339/.423 slash and 14 home runs in 2017 — his lowest total in a full season at any point in his career. While he rebounded in the season’s second half and finished out his 2017 campaign with a torrid .327/.401/.553 batting line in his final 227 plate appearances of the season, that apparently didn’t prove convincing enough to garner a multi-year deal on the open market. (Gonzalez did sport a ridiculous .401 BABIP during that turnaround.)

He’ll now look to carry as much of that production as possible into a full season and rebuild his stock in an effort to land a longer-term pact next winter. Bryce Harper, of course, headlines the 2018-19 crop of free-agent outfielders, and CarGo will also face competition in the form of Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones and longtime teammate Charlie Blackmon.

Gonzalez was one of baseball’s most feared hitters from 2010-13, when he batted .311/.370/.556 in nearly 2200 plate appearances with the Rockies. Since that time, he’s been more good than great, posting a collective .272/.332/.484 line, which translates to a 103 OPS+ after adjusting for Coors Field. To be fair, he’s turned in two fairly strong seasons — including a 40-homer 2015 campaign — against two weak seasons in that time, and his 2014 season was ruined by a knee injury that has not sent him back to the disabled list since.

As far as 2018 goes, Gonzalez will likely supplant Gerardo Parra as the primary right fielder. His return will present Rockies brass with a similar outfield quandary to the one they faced last spring, as the team will now have Blackmon and Gonzalez as outfield regulars with Parra, Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and a (hopefully) healthier David Dahl all in the mix for the remaining outfield at-bats. It’s possible that Gonzalez could be platooned to an extent, and there’s previously been talk of him eventually getting some occasional looks at first base, where Desmond also has experience. Extra time at first base for Desmond could take some time away from top prospect Ryan McMahon, but McMahon also has experience at second base and third base, giving skipper Bud Black plenty of opportunities to get creative with his lineup.

Regardless of how the team divides the playing time, the added depth should serve as a boon to the on-field product, and CarGo’s return should also go over well in the clubhouse. Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado recently lauded his longtime teammate in an interview with the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, and the Post’s Nick Groke tweeted this morning that the clubhouse seems energized by the news, with Blackmon stating that he “would love to have CarGo back.”

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Extend Eugenio Suarez

By Steve Adams | March 16, 2018 at 10:28am CDT

The Reds announced this morning that they’ve signed third baseman Eugenio Suarez to a seven-year contract extension that spans the 2018-24 seasons and contains a club option for the 2025 campaign. Suarez, an Octagon client, will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $66MM over the life of the contract, which does not include any incentives, escalators or no-trade protection.

Cincinnati already controlled Suarez through the 2020 season via arbitration and had previously agreed to a $3.75MM salary for the 2018 season, meaning his new deal affords him $62.25MM over a six-year term that includes his final two arbitration seasons and at least his first four would-be free-agent years. If the option is exercised, he’ll secure a total of $79MM over an eight-year span.

Notably, the new contract reportedly reworks Suarez’s 2018 salary. He’ll receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $2.25MM salary this coming season before earning $7MM and $9.25MM in his final two arbitration years. He’ll then earn $10.5MM in 2021 and $11MM annually from 2022-24 before the club has an option on his age-33 campaign.

Cincinnati initially acquired Suarez, 26, alongside righty Jonathon Crawford in a lopsided trade that sent Alfredo Simon to the Tigers. Over the past three seasons, Suarez has seized the everyday third base job for the Reds, hitting a combined .260/.336/.438 — including a career-best .260/.367/.461 batting line and a career-high 26 home runs in 2017.

Suarez’s career year at the plate came in large part due to a massive jump in his plate discipline — a trait he’s improved with each full season in the Majors. After posting a meek 4.3 percent walk rate in his first year with the Reds in 2015, Suarez walked at an 8.1 percent pace in 2016 and saw that number soar to 13.3 percent in 2017. Suarez swung at pitches in the zone at a career-high rate while chasing out-of-zone offerings at a career-low 24.2 percent last season, illustrating an overall more patient approach.

Defensively speaking, the former shortstop looks to have found a new home on the diamond at the hot corner. Suarez posted solid marks of +1 DRS and a +0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 and took a step forward in 2017 with respective ratings of +5 and +5.8 in those same metrics. In all, he was worth 3.7 rWAR and 4.1 fWAR last season.

From a financial standpoint, the deal certainly makes sense for the Reds, who’ll gain security over Suarez at a more affordable rate than recent three-plus service extensions for Wil Myers (six years, $83MM) and Kyle Seager (seven years, $100MM), as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. Cincinnati only has Joey Votto and Tucker Barnhart on the books beyond the 2020 season, so there’s plenty of room to fit in an $11MM annual value for Suarez’s would-be free-agent seasons.

Looking at the larger picture, the Suarez contract poses a minor impediment to top prospect Nick Senzel’s arrival in the big leagues, though the Reds will surely find a place to work the former No. 2 overall pick into the lineup. Senzel has been working out at second base and shortstop, and his bat has made enough noise in the minors that the Reds will want to get him a look at the big league level sooner rather than later.

Last season, Senzel batted .321/.391/.514 with 14 homers and 14 steals through 507 PAs between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. While third base has been his only position in the minors to date, it now seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for middle infield duty once he forces his way onto the big league roster — likely at some point in 2018.

The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweeted that the Reds were in the process of announcing an extension for Suarez. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer added details on the length of the deal (Twitter links). Tommy Stokke of LockedOnMLB.com reported the total guarantee and option value. Rosecrans reported the yearly breakdown (Twitter link).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Sign Jake Arrieta

By Connor Byrne | March 12, 2018 at 7:00pm CDT

The Phillies have officially inked right-hander Jake Arrieta, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia first reported on Twitter. It’ll be a three-year, $75MM contract for the Scott Boras client, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Arrieta will earn $30MM in 2018, $25MM in 2019 and $20MM in 2020, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports (links to Twitter). Arrieta can choose to opt out of the deal after the second season, though interestingly, the contract also allows the Phillies to “void” the opt-out by picking up a two-year option that would extend the contract through the 2021-22 seasons.

Should the Phils override the opt-out, they would pay Arrieta a base salary of $20MM in each of the two additional years. But those option-year salaries aren’t fixed. Games-started escalators (presumably, based upon 2019 tallies) can boost the values by as much as $5MM, with the escalators beginning at 25 starts and maxing out if and when Arrieta takes the ball for a 31st time. He can escalate those salaries further by finishing in the top-five of the N.L. Cy Young voting in either 2018 or 2019; the annual rate on the potential extra years goes up by $5MM with a top-three finish or by $3MM if Arrieta finishes fourth or fifth. The contract also includes a $1MM assignment bonus provision.

Up until Sunday, the 32-year-old Arrieta ranked as the best free agent remaining in what has been a famously slow-moving market since it opened in November. Back then, MLBTR forecast a four-year, $100MM pact for Arrieta, who’s coming off a four-plus-year run with the Cubs in which he was one of baseball’s best pitchers.

During his stretch in Chicago from 2013-17, the former Orioles castoff won a Cy Young (2015) and a World Series (2016), and he pitched to a 2.73 ERA/3.16 FIP with 8.89 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent groundball rate over 803 innings. Arrieta fell off somewhat last year, however, with a 3.53 ERA/4.16 FIP over 168 1/3 frames. While Arrieta again offered strong strikeout and walk numbers (8.71 K/9, 2.94 BB/9), his grounder (45.1 percent) and swinging-strike rates (8.7; down from 10 percent as a Cub) each trended in the wrong direction. He also experienced a drop in velocity, going from upward of 94 mph with his fastball in each of the previous five seasons to 92.6.

With last year’s decline in mind, it’s less surprising that free agency didn’t go as planned for Arrieta. It’s also not surprising that the Phillies were willing to reel him in at a discounted rate. Phillies president Andy MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak emphasized throughout the offseason that they weren’t interested in signing anyone to an overly long deal, but they did suggest they’d be willing to pay extra for shorter-term pacts. Arrieta is now the fourth noteworthy free agent to whom they’ve guaranteed three or fewer years since December.

Previously, the Phillies landed first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) and the relief duo of Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM). Despite those signings, the big-market Phillies entered Sunday with plenty of spending room, and they still figure to fall short of last year’s $100MM Opening Day payroll even in the wake of their expensive Arrieta agreement.

All of those additions certainly aren’t guaranteed to lead to immediate contention for the Phillies, who registered their sixth straight non-playoff season and their fifth consecutive sub-.500 year in 2017. But the Arrieta pickup could be particularly helpful to a team whose projected rotation otherwise wouldn’t have featured any proven options beyond Aaron Nola. He and Arrieta should form a quality one-two punch and perhaps help the Phillies return to contention in 2018 as part of a National League that features three clear favorites – Arrieta’s previous team, the Cubs, as well as the Dodgers and Nationals. Washington, which was a speculative landing spot for Arrieta, will now have to deal with him as an opponent in its division, though the Nationals are still the obvious NL East front-runners over the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins.

Despite their recent run of irrelevance, the Phillies clearly regard themselves as a team on the upswing, as their free agent splashes indicate. After losing their second-highest draft pick in 2018 and $500K in international bonus pool to sign Santana, who rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, they’ll surrender their third-highest selection (No. 79) and another $500K for Arrieta. The Cubs, who qualified Arrieta in November, will collect a compensatory pick after the second round. They seem well equipped to move on without Arrieta, having added this offseason’s top free agent starter, Yu Darvish (six years, $126MM), and Tyler Chatwood to a rotation that will also feature Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester.

Boras hoped to outdo Darvish’s pact with Arrieta, given that the latter has the better track record of production, but he has instead seen another of his clients collect a lower-than-expected payday. To Boras’ credit, a pair of his players – first baseman Eric Hosmer ($144MM) and slugger J.D. Martinez ($110MM) – did receive two of this free agent class’s three richest guarantees. On the other hand, before Arrieta reached an agreement, Carlos Gonzalez ($8MM), Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) and Carlos Gomez ($4MM) each signed for relatively underwhelming amounts. Now, reliever Greg Holland is the last high-end Boras client remaining on a shrinking market as Opening Day draws closer.

Nightengale and Jon Heyman of FanRag first reported that the Phillies and Arrieta were headed toward a deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Sign Neil Walker

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2018 at 4:53pm CDT

The Yankees have agreed to a contract with free-agent infielder Neil Walker, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Walker, a client of Excel Sports Management, will earn a base salary of $4MM, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

Walker can also boost his earnings a bit through bonuses, per Jack Curry of the YES Network (via Twitter) and Hoch (via Twitter). He can take home up to $500K via plate appearance incentives, with $125K apiece upon reaching each of 425, 450, 475 and 500 plate appearances.

The agreement will bring to a close a lengthy trip through the free-agent process for the 32-year-old Walker, who struggled to find a landing spot this offseason despite a history of above-average offense and the ability to handle multiple positions around the infield. The infielder himself told Billy Witz of the New York Times recently that he thought he’d been close to an agreement with the Yankees before the team pivoted and acquired Brandon Drury from the D-backs.

Now, it seems that the Yankees will have veteran options to fill in at both third base and second base as they round out their infield before Opening Day. The addition of Walker likely means that both Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar will begin the 2018 season in the minors, with Drury lined up at the hot corner and Walker at second base. That said, Walker’s ability to bounce between first base and third base as well, if necessary, could allow him to move to a utility role later in the year if Torres emerges and pushes him for the starting second base job.

Walker is fresh off a solid .265/.362/.439 slash line with 14 homers in 448 plate appearances between the Mets and Brewers last season. A partially torn hamstring sidelined him for several weeks last summer, but he showed little in the way of ill effect late in the year, hitting at a .267/.403/.433 clip after an August trade to Milwaukee. Injuries have to be at least something of a concern with Walker, to be sure; in addition to last year’s hamstring trouble, Walker underwent back surgery in 2016 — a procedure that led to him accepting a $17.2MM qualifying offer from the Mets.

Health-related red flags notwithstanding, Walker has hit between 12 and 23 homers per season with average or better walk rates and above-average contact skills each season dating back to 2010, when he first established himself as a regular in Pittsburgh. By measure of OPS+ and wRC+, he’s been 14 to 15 percent better than the league-average hitter in that time. He’ll add to an already-imposing Yankees lineup and deepen an already-envious collection of quality infield options for GM Brian Cashman and first-year manager Aaron Boone.

The presence of Walker on the 25-man roster could also push utility infield option Tyler Wade to Triple-A early in the year, though fellow utilityman Ronald Torreyes also has options remaining. That group, paired with Drury, Torres and Andujar should leave the Yankees extremely well-positioned to deal with any injuries or unforeseen circumstances that may arise over the course of the season, and the added depth could theoretically go a long way toward keeping Walker healthy as well by affording him ample rest opportunities.

With a fairly modest overall commitment, the Yankees should still have roughly $10MM to work with as they seek midseason upgrades in advance of the nonwaiver trade deadline. Maintaining that type of flexibility has long been reported to be a critical factor for the Yankees in any free agent negotiations. That Walker’s price point fell to the range of several other solid veterans who have signed in this range in recent weeks allowed the Yankees to come away from the offseason with both of the infielders in which they held interest when previously negotiating with Walker’s camp and with the D-backs on the Drury swap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Sign Lance Lynn

By Kyle Downing and Steve Adams | March 12, 2018 at 2:13pm CDT

The Twins have continued their aggressive, late foray into the free-agent market, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Lance Lynn to a one-year contract. He’ll earn $12MM, per the team, confirming previous reports on his salary. The deal reportedly allows Lynn to earn another $2MM worth of incentives — half each upon reaching 170 and 180 innings. Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management, will get right going with the Twins and start their Grapefruit League Game against the Orioles tomorrow, per the team’s announcement.

The pact makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the (relatively) meager $12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.

As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy (and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. Minnesota also managed to bring Morrison to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option. Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command in the vicinity of $100MM in combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.

Lynn will join Odorizzi as a newcomer in the rotation, which will also eventually feature three holdovers in the form of Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Santana, however, will be out for as much as the first month of the season after undergoing surgery in February to repair an injury in his right middle finger. The increased number of off-days early in the season could cause the Twins to largely get by without a fifth starter in that time, though lefty Adalberto Mejia and veteran Phil Hughes (returning from his second thoracic outlet surgery) are among the on-hand options should a fifth starter be needed. The addition of Lynn likely pushes Tyler Duffey back to the bullpen and further lessens the organization’s need to rush top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to the Majors.

The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a provision in the new CBA.

Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds (to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a 3.43 ERA.

Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off, pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to 2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9 mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175 innings in each of his full major league seasons.

The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-hander Alex Cobb who remains on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to substantially eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks until Opening Day, it’ll be interesting to see what type of contract the top remaining free-agent starter can secure, especially in relation to his most statistically comparable open-market competitor.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweeted details of the incentives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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