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Injured List Activations: Ahmed, Stewart, Adams

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After a flurry of injury news and updates around baseball today, here are some players who are getting back to action…

  • The Diamondbacks activated shortstop Nick Ahmed from the 10-day injured list.  Ahmed suffered some right knee inflammation near the end of Spring Training and received a PRP injection as part of his treatment.  The two-time Gold Glove winner is now ready to begin his 2021 season and take his usual place as the defensive anchor of the Diamondbacks infield.  Infielder Geraldo Perdomo was optioned to the alternate training site after last night’s game in preparation for Ahmed’s return.
  • The Orioles reinstated DJ Stewart from the 10-day IL, and Stewart is set for his season debut tonight, scheduled to hit fifth in Baltimore’s lineup.  Due to a left hamstring strain, the outfielder hasn’t seen any game action since a Spring Training outing on March 5.  While strikeouts continue to be a troublingly large part of Stewart’s offensive game, he has hit .224/.334/433 with 14 homers at the MLB level, good for an above-average 107 OPS+/108 wRC+ over 301 career plate appearances.
  • Right-hander Austin Adams has been reinstated from the Padres’ 10-day IL, and righty Nabil Crismatt has been optioned to the alternate training site to make room on the active roster.  Adams had been suffering from a minor elbow strain during Spring Training.  San Diego acquired Adams as part of their seven-player deal with the Mariners last August, and he stands out as a potentially nasty bullpen weapon if he can get his free passes in check.  Adams has an eye-popping 70 strikeouts over 42 career innings in the majors, but control has also been a major issue (a 15.8% walk rate).

Diamondbacks Place Nick Ahmed On 10-Day Injured List, Promote Geraldo Perdomo

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3:18PM: The D’Backs have officially announced the move.  Ahmed’s IL placement is retroactive to March 31.

11:27AM: The Diamondbacks are preparing to promote shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to make his Major League debut, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s certainly early in the season for this type of promotion, but Nick Ahmed’s continued knee pain may be forcing the issue. It’s looking like Ahmed will soon head to the injured list.

The 21-year-old Perdomo has just 26 games at High-A, so his promotion does come as somewhat of a surprise. With the minor league season yet to get underway, however, there’s certainly some sense to getting Perdomo some game action in a short-term fill-in capacity. Thus far in his professional career, Perdomo has shown a tremendous approach at the plate with well-above-average bat-to-ball skills. He has not yet displayed much power, but between his approach at the plate, speed, and defensive skill-set, the Diamondbacks expect Perdomo to eventually take over as their starting shortstop.

That said, Ahmed signed a contract extension in February 2020 that runs through 2023 season, so he is very much still Arizona’s shortstop of the present and the team can take its time in developing Perdomo. Fangraphs ranked Perdomo 68th on their list of the game’s best prospects, his highest finish as a consensus choice in top-100 rankings from Baseball America (75th), MLB.com (79th), Baseball Prospectus (90th), and The Athletic’s Keith Law (91st).

NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Widener, Closer, Ahmed, Dodgers, McKinstry

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Taylor Widener will open the season as a member of the Diamondbacks rotation, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (via Twitter). Widener beat out Taylor Clarke to take Zac Gallen’s spot in the rotation. Widener has been a highly-regarded prospect, first in the Yankees’ system and then with the Diamondbacks. He made 12 appearances out of the Dbacks’ pen in 2020 with a 4.50 ERA/6.49 FIP across 20 innings. Clarke, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen. Elsewhere in the desert…

  • The Diamondbacks are going with a closer-by-committee approach to start the season, per Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). Joakim Soria has been the presumptive closer given his past experience in the role compared to the other options on the roster. Soria’s 223 career saves easily set the pace. Tyler Clippard is second with 68 career saves, and Stefan Crichton comes in third with just five career saves. Nevertheless, Crichton is one of the guys manager Torey Lovullo may turn to late in game. The Diamondbacks might simply want to push some of their less proven bullpen arms to see what exactly they have in someone like Crichton or Kevin Ginkel.
  • Nick Ahmed’s been experiencing knee pain, an issue that he has dealt with in the past. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection as treatment and plans to be ready for opening day, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Arizona doesn’t have a perfect solution to replace Ahmed, were he to miss time. Josh Rojas would likely slide to short with Asdrubal Cabrera seeing more regular time at the keystone. For now, however, they’ll assume good health and move ahead with Ahmed. While he’s not among the elite at his position, Ahmed has put together a quality three-year stretch, pairing gold glove defense with an acceptable 89 wRC+.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that none of the non-roster invitees are still in the running to make their opening day roster, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Presumably, that means Zach McKinstry has made the roster as a utility option off the bench. There is still one roster decision pending for the champs, however, as Roberts says they are not yet decided about their fifth starter. David Price, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin are all still under consideration for the role. Price was scratched from his recent start because of illness. He plans to pitch today in a simulated game. (Twitter links). Gonsolin struggled through 3 2/3 innings against the Angels on Sunday night.

Diamondbacks Extend Nick Ahmed

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The Diamondbacks have announced a long-term deal with shortstop Nick Ahmed. Ahmed will earn a guaranteed $32.5MM over the four years covered by the deal, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.

Ahmed and the Snakes had been engaged in an arbitration standoff, with the player seeking $6.95MM and the team at $6.6MM. This new deal will therefore tack on three further seasons and over $25MM in new commitments. Ahmed had been due to reach free agency at the end of the 2020 season. He is a client of Meister Sports Management.

The structure includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Ahmed will earn $6MM for the coming season, take home $7.5MM apiece in 2021 and 2022, and receive $10MM in the final year of the deal. There’s also a $500K escalator for each Gold Glove award that Ahmed wins, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

At first glance, it’s a heck of an outlay for a player who’s entering his age-30 campaign without so much as a single league-average offensive season under his belt. Ahmed is a career .236/.289/.387 hitter through 2,209 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out — this could be a bargain. It seems safe to say that the Diamondbacks do not put much stock in the UZR metric, by which Ahmed has been a good but hardly remarkable performer at short. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average, on the other hand, Ahmed is an exceptional performer with the glove. He has also earned the National League Gold Glove in each of the past two campaigns.

But that’s only touching the surface of the intrigue when it comes to Ahmed. Long a marginal performer with the bat, he trended up to a career-best 92 wRC+ last season. Ahmed cracked the .300 OBP barrier for the first time and drove 19 balls out of the park. It’s probably not reasonable to anticipate much beyond league-average offense (if that) going forward, but the arrow is obviously pointed in the right direction given that Ahmed has been able to improve both his plate discipline (career-best .46 BB/K ratio) and power (career-best .183 ISO) at the same time.

So, what’s the total package worth? Even after the offensive uptick last year, Ahmed was only a 2.4 WAR performer by measure of Fangraphs’ UZR-based valuation. But Baseball-Reference, which utilizes DRS, pegged him at 4.5 WAR. If indeed Ahmed truly wields an elite glove and provides anything approaching the league mean with the bat, he could handily out-perform the contract. If things really click at the plate, this could even turn into a truly high-value pact. Of course, there’s also equivalent downside if Ahmed’s offensive/defensive out-making trends reverse course.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Diamondbacks Notes: Marte, Second Base, Arbitration

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Ketel Marte is likely ticketed for heavy usage in centerfield this season, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks stated preference for Marte is twofold: they’d like to return him to the infield, and they’d like not to bounce him between positions (in 2019, Marte appeared in 96 games in center, 83 at second, and 11 at shortstop). But unless they make a move on the trade market, GM Mike Hazen is unlikely to satisfy both criteria.  They could have their cake and eat it too by trading for the Pirates’ star centerfielder of the same surname. Speculatively speaking, Starling Marte and Jackie Bradley Jr. are both available, and there aren’t many options beyond those two to upgrade in center. A year after picking 8 times in the first 100 selections of the 2019 draft, the Diamondbacks have the prospect capital to make such a move if they want to cash in. If not…

  • …the organization is much better off in the second baseman department, with Eduardo Escobar, Andy Young, Ildemaro Vargas, Domingo Leyba and Josh Rojas all capable of winning the spot with a strong spring. Eduardo Escobar’s handling of the keystone only becomes likely if Jake Lamb stakes his claim to the hot corner with some authority. That’s not out of the question for the 29-year-old, though given last year’s .193/.323/.353 performance, Lamb would need a very strong spring to gird himself against any kind of early season slump. Otherwise, the Diamondbacks appear comfortable letting a host of options work their way through second base. Escobar is likelier to play third most of the time, as he did last year, with one of their younger options such as Rojas or Young chunking their time up the middle. With Kole Calhoun in right and Stephen Vogt brought in to back up at catcher, the centerfield/second base slot remains the last significant variable for the Diamondbacks to solve on offense before Opening Day. 
  • Regarding arbitration, the Diamondbacks reached one-year accords with four arb-eligible players yesterday: Robbie Ray, Andrew Chafin, Matt Andriese and Jake Lamb. The D-backs also locked up their left fielder David Peralta with a three-year, $22MM deal. Incumbent closer Archie Bradley and consecutive gold glove winner Nick Ahmed are the only two players headed for the arbitration panel as of right now. Figures for both players have been filed.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

NL West Notes: Padres, Ahmed, Friedman, Tapia, Wallach

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The Padres are expected have a busy offseason as the team tries to figure out the proper mixture for a contender.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune breaks down the Padres position-by-position as they look ahead to 2020, and the common refrain from many inside the organization is that perhaps only seven players (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Garrett Richards, Andres Munoz, and Kirby Yates) look like sure bets to be with the organization next season.  Everyone else, even from seeming building blocks like Dinelson Lamet or Hunter Renfroe, could potentially be traded for more proven talents.

“They have roster problems. They have to move people,” one rival executive tells Acee, which gets to the heart of the challenge facing the Padres.  The team still doesn’t totally know what they have in some players who have been inconsistent at the Major League level, yet a wave of prospects coming up and the organization increasingly impatient for a winning season, some tough choices may have to be made about who stays and who becomes a trade chip.

Some items from around the NL West…

  • Nick Ahmed enjoys playing for the Diamondbacks, but when it comes to the possibility of a contract extension, the shortstop tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that “I want to sign a fair deal. I’ve played long enough to realize that. I want to be able to take advantage of what I’ve got to this point in my career.”  A September slump has dropped Ahmed’s slash line to .255/.318/.442 over 621 PA this season, though his 93 wRC+ still represents the best offensive production of his six-year career, and his glovework has continued to be excellent.  Ahmed has one year of arbitration remaining before he hits free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, and he’ll be 31 on Opening Day 2021.  It makes for something of a tricky extension case, as Piecoro notes, since there aren’t many shortstop comps that would serve as a model for a potential multi-year contract.  There also hasn’t been any word from the D’Backs if they’d be interested in extending Ahmed, though Piecoro observes that GM Mike Hazen “does not speculate on such topics.”
  • There hasn’t yet been word about Andrew Friedman’s status with the Dodgers, as the president of baseball operations will reach the end of his contract when the Dodgers’ season ends.  The involved parties didn’t provide any details about negotiations, though there seems to be general optimism that a deal will be reached, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes.  Friedman said he wants to return, while team president Stan Kasten said he is “pretty confident” Friedman will be back, and “expect him to be here for a long time.”  Manager Dave Roberts also feels Friedman will remain in L.A., saying “everything I hear is [a new contract] is imminent, that it will get done.”
  • Raimel Tapia projects as an everyday left fielder for the Rockies in 2020, Nick Groke of the Athletic (subscription required) writes, which should help a player who seemed to get better with more regular playing time this season.  As a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Colorado’s farm system, Tapia received only 239 MLB plate appearances from 2016-18 before getting more of an extended look this season.  While Tapia has only a .276/.310/.418 slash line (74 wRC+) over 442 PA, he has also battled injuries and didn’t get many consistent starts until late July, Groke noted.  Sticking with Tapia as the mostly everyday left fielder would reduce Ian Desmond to a backup role, though the highly-paid veteran hasn’t done enough to merit more at-bats over three disappointing years in Colorado.  There’s also the possibility, however, that the Rockies could trade Tapia in the offseason to address other roster needs.
  • Tim Wallach is leaving his job as the Marlins’ bench coach to be closer to his family in California, though one rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal (in his latest FOX Sports video) that Wallach could be a possible candidate for the Padres’ managerial opening.  It wouldn’t be the first time that Wallach has been linked to San Diego, as he interviewed for the last managerial vacancy before the club went with Andy Green.  Wallach has over 12 years of MLB coaching experience and has also managed at the Triple-A level in the Dodgers’ organization, though he hasn’t been a big league skipper.  In the wake of Green’s firing, Rosenthal wonders if the Padres could prefer someone with Major League managing experience rather hire than another first-timer.

D’Backs Notes: Ray, Lamb, Ahmed

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The latest from Arizona…

  • Robbie Ray threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and is on track to be activated off the injured list when first eligible on Sunday.  (Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was among those to report the news.)  A lower back spasm sent Ray to the IL on August 15, and while the southpaw’s back has been something of a recurring issue lately, Ray feels the 10-day minimum absence was a long enough break to correct the problem.  Ray is scheduled to start the Diamondbacks’ game against the Brewers on Sunday, and he’ll be a welcome addition to an Arizona team that is battling to stay in the wild card race.
  • It has been a trying couple of years for Jake Lamb, who played only 56 games in 2018 due to shoulder surgery, and has been limited to just 50 games this season after a quad strain kept him on the IL for almost the entire first half.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Lamb has yet to get into a rhythm, hitting .211/.346/.391 with five homers over 156 PA.  Despite these struggles, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required) that he expects Lamb to get on track, and reacted with surprise when asked if Lamb could potentially be a non-tender candidate.  “Wow, I wouldn’t anticipate that being a consideration for him,” Hazen said.  Lamb is making $4.825MM this season, so a projected raise won’t be too large for Lamb’s final year of arbitration eligibility.  There’s not much financial risk for the D’Backs in retaining Lamb to see if he can regain the form that saw him hit 59 homers in 2016-17, and make the NL’s All-Star roster in 2017.
  • Nick Ahmed is slated to hit free agency after the 2020 season, though Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic suggests that the shortstop is the team’s best extension candidate, and that the D’Backs should look to keep Ahmed in the fold.  Long regarded as one of baseball’s best defenders, Ahmed has taken a significant step forward at the plate this season, hitting .271/.333/.465 with 17 homers over 497 plate appearances.  While this only grades out as roughly league-average production (101 wRC+, 103 OPS+), Ahmed had only a .229/.279/.368 slash line in 1584 PA prior to 2019, with a 67 wRC+ and 69 OPS+.  Given that Ahmed’s offensive numbers are still modest, it could pave the way for an extension at a reasonable price for the team, and Ahmed might prefer some contractual security rather than test the market heading into his age-31 season.  Ahmed is earning $3,662,500 this season and is set for a healthy raise on that figure in his final trip through the arbitration process this offseason.

NL Notes: Carlson, Hader, Hosmer, Ahmed

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The Cardinals have promoted top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson to Triple-A, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. That puts the 20-year-old switch-hitter right on the doorstep of the big leagues. Carlson turned in a strong .281/.364/.518 batting line with 21 long balls and 18 steals over 483 Double-A plate appearances. It’s not clear whether the club has any thought of a late-2019 MLB promotion for the talented youngster.

More from the National League …

  • MLB.com’s Mike Petriello provides an interesting examination of the feast-or-famine experience hitters have had this year against Brewers lefty relief ace Josh Hader. It really is a curious situation, as Petriello explains in full detail. In essence: Hader is harder to make contact against than anyone in baseball. But when batters have put bat to ball this year, they’ve tended to make loud sounds and often ended up trotting the bases. Petriello identifies a few potential causes/fixes for the Milwaukee southpaw. In particular, it seems Hader can work on reducing first-pitch predictability and tightening up his command at times. You’ll certainly want to read the entire piece to appreciate it.
  • As he continues to produce middling overall offensive numbers, Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer is showing increasingly yawning platoon splits, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. It’s simple enough, in theory, to spell him against southpaws. But that’s tough to do given the club’s mammoth investment in Hosmer. Skipper Andy Green made clear it’s not an immediate possibility. That makes sense, as the Friars have to hope that Hosmer turns a corner and can afford to give him the leash to work things out. But if it comes down to it, the extreme platoon situation actually ought to make it easier in the long run to deal with a contract that has simply not panned out.
  • Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has long been lauded for his superlative glovework, but has mostly remained an obscure player. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic highlights the growing value of the 29-year-old, who is now finally marrying his excellent defensive performance with much-improved hitting. With torrid recent streak, Ahmed has reached league-average offensive levels for the season as a whole. Piecoro provides an excellent look at Ahmed’s thus-far successful efforts to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone and make better contact when he does offer. Ahmed, who is earning $3.663MM this season, is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Injury Notes: Arenado, Simmons, Ahmed, Montgomery

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After fouling a ball off his left foot today, Nolan Arenado left the game with what the Rockies described as a contusion on his big toe.  The injury occurred in the top of the eighth inning, and the third baseman took his position in the bottom half of the inning before being subbed out in the bottom of the ninth.  The Rockies’ announcement specified that the move was made “for precautionary reasons,” noting that Arenado suffered a similar injury against the Padres last week.  Arenado told the Athletic’s Nick Groke and other reporters that today’s foul ball exacerbated the injury, though x-rays didn’t reveal any damage.  Particularly with Trevor Story hitting the IL earlier today, the absolute last thing the Rockies need is to lose their other superstar infielder to injury, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Arenado misses a game or two to fully heal up.

Some more injury situations from around baseball…

  • There was some thought that Andrelton Simmons could return to the Angels roster this weekend, though manager Brad Ausmus told reporters (including Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times) that Simmons won’t be returning quite so soon after coming up limping during last night’s minor league rehab game.  The shortstop could still potentially rejoin the club sometime next week, Ausmus said, and may not even play any more rehab games.  A Grade 3 ankle sprain put Simmons on the injured list on May 22, so even pushing back a return until next week still represents a very quick recovery from such an injury.
  • Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed suffered what the club termed as a left hand contusion after being hit by a Jeff Hoffman pitch in today’s game.  The injury forced Ahmed out of the game in the fifth inning, though manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters that x-rays were negative and Ahmed could still potentially play tomorrow.  The defensively-gifted Ahmed has started all but four of Arizona’s games this season, and Ketel Marte would likely move from center field to shortstop if Ahmed did need to miss any time.
  • The Yankees have shut Jordan Montgomery down from throwing for two weeks, manager Aaron Boone told media (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  The southpaw felt soreness while throwing a batting practice session as part of his rehab from Tommy John surgery in June 2018, and an MRI revealed inflammation in Montgomery’s throwing shoulder.  Despite the setback, Boone didn’t close the door on Montgomery potentially being able to return to the Yankees at some point this season.
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