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Tigers Notes: Carpenter, Baez, Maeda

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Heading into 2025, Kerry Carpenter is one of the Tigers’ most accomplished young hitters. A career .276/.338/.512 hitter across 236 games in the majors, Carpenter missed time last year due to a lumbar spine stress fracture but raked when healthy, crushing the ball to the tune of a .284/.345/.587 slash line with 18 homers in just 87 games. For all of Carpenter’s success as a hitter, however, he’s been limited almost entirely to work against opposite-handed pitching. The lefty slugger has just 134 total plate appearances against southpaws during his time in the majors, only 32 of which came in 2024. As noted by Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, that’s an area Carpenter is hoping to get more opportunities in this season.

It’s a proposition that manager A.J. Hinch appears at least somewhat open to, with Hinch noting that Carpenter is “going to get opportunities and probably more opportunities moving forward.” Hinch also cautioned that those opportunities won’t just be gifted to Carpenter once the regular season begins, however.

“But more doesn’t mean every one. And more doesn’t come for free,” Hinch said, as relayed by McCosky. “There is a cost that comes with every decision and we will be weighing that. Last year’s evaluation doesn’t have to be this year’s evaluation. We have an open mind as to how to use our roster. But I stand behind that my job is to use the roster the best way we can.”

Concerns about Carpenter’s ability to produce against southpaws are understandable despite his minimal opportunities against them. He’s a career .202/.286/.303 hitter against lefties in the majors, with a 23.9% strikeout rate, a walk rate of 6.7%, and just four extra-base hits. Those strikeout and walk figures are actually pretty close to Carpenter’s career numbers of 25.6% and 6.9% respectively, but the complete disappearance of Carpenter’s trademark power will need to be overcome in order for the 27-year-old to be a valuable offensive presence against left-handed pitching.

In addition to more opportunities against southpaws, Carpenter is hoping to more frequently work his way into the lineup as an outfielder in 2025 rather than being limited to DH-only duties. Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez will give Carpenter some competition for that job with Riley Greene and Parker Meadows entrenched in left and center field respectively, but if Carpenter can prove himself a viable option in the field and begin providing at least passable power output against southpaws, the platoon slugger could begin to put together a more well-rounded profile in 2025.

While Carpenter is attempting to carve out a larger role for himself in the outfield, the Tigers are trying to assess the future of veteran Javier Baez on the infield. Baez, 32, missed the club’s surprise playoff push last year after undergoing hip surgery in August. The six-year pact Detroit gave Baez coming off his impressive run with the Cubs from the breakout 2018 season that saw him finish second in NL MVP voting to a 2021 season where he was traded to the Mets and caught fire down the stretch has not gone according to plan.

Since arriving in Detroit, Baez has hit just .221/.262/.347 in three seasons. He remained a plus defender at shortstop for the club in 2022 and ’23, but even his glove took a step back last season and a strong late-season performance from Trey Sweeney as the club’s shortstop has left Baez without a clear role on the team going forward. As noted by McCosky, Baez has resumed swinging at 100% strength but has not yet begun to face live pitching. Even so, he’s on track to begin the season on time, and Hinch made clear that the club is glad to have him healthy and in the fold for 2025 even if his role can’t be determined until after he’s put rehab fully behind him.

One place where Baez appears to be a clear fit for the club’s needs is against left-handed pitching. The Tigers’ offense is heavily left-handed even after adding Gleyber Torres to the lineup at second base, and a right-handed hitter who can help to spell southpaws around the infield like Sweeney and Colt Keith should have plenty of value for Detroit. Baez has been a perfectly acceptable hitter against lefties even during his time in Detroit, slashing .268/.314/.433 (108 wRC+) with a strikeout rate of just 20.1% and 24 extra base hits in 284 trips to the plate against lefties between 2022 and 2023. If he can get back to that level of production against southpaws, Baez could be a key asset for the Tigers this year even if he doesn’t bounce far enough back to reclaim an everyday role.

Baez isn’t the only veteran attempting a comeback after struggling badly in 2024. Veteran right-hander Kenta Maeda is expected to get “every opportunity” to rejoin the club’s rotation after pitching to a 6.09 ERA last year and getting kicked to the bullpen after 17 starts, and news of an injury that will keep veteran righty Alex Cobb off the roster to start the season leaves two open spots in the club’s rotation behind Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson. Maeda figures to be in competition with Casey Mize, Keider Montero, and Jackson Jobe among others as he tries to earn one of those two spots.

In hopes of proving himself capable the soon to be 37-year-old hurler changed up his offseason routine this winter. According to MLive’s Evan Woodbery, Maeda began his offseason work with eight bullpen sessions during his time in Japan this offseason despite the fact that he’s typically waited until he returns stateside for Spring Training to resume throwing. The early start to his throwing program, Maeda noted, is in order to make sure he’s putting his best foot forward as he tries to recapture his rotation job this spring. In addition to starting his preseason regime earlier than usual, Maeda notes that he believes he’s fixed some mechanical issues he dealt with last year after working with the Tigers’ pitching development staff this offseason.

A return to form for Maeda would be a major help for a Tigers club with plenty of upside but little certainty in the rotation. Dominant as Skubal was in his Cy Young award-winning season last year, he’s dealt with plenty of injury issues throughout his career. The same can be said for Flaherty, Mize, Jobe, Matt Manning, and a host of other potentially key pitchers for the Tigers this year. Maeda’s own injury history is far from clean, but having an effective veteran starter at the back of the rotation should nonetheless be a major help for the club as they look for better results out of a rotation that saw only Skubal make more than 22 starts and only Mize and Olson join him in making at least 20 last year.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Framber, Roster Moves

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The door for an Alex Bregman reunion in Houston closed this week when the former No. 2 overall pick agreed to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Boston. However, the notion of Jose Altuve playing some left field — a concept first floated when the Astros reengaged with Bregman late in the offseason — remains in play even with Bregman headed to the Red Sox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that even without Bregman, there are plans for Altuve to get some work in left field in at least a part-time capacity.

At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

Cubs Notes: Assad, Birdsell, Rotation

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to camp for all 30 clubs this week, but the Cubs started a little earlier than everyone else. That’s due to the fact that the Cubs and Dodgers are starting the regular season early, flying to Tokyo to play a couple of games there in mid-March.

Inevitably, the opening of camp leads to revelations of injuries that weren’t previously known to the public. Cubs manager Craig Counsell relayed a couple of those to reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Right-hander Javier Assad is dealing with some oblique soreness while fellow righty Brandon Birdsell is dealing with an issue in the back of his shoulder. Per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Assad is getting some imaging today.

At this point, it’s unclear if either issue is serious, though the club’s rotation depth could suffer if one or both of these hurlers have to miss some time. On paper, Assad would be in the club’s Opening Day rotation. Last year, he made 29 starts and logged 147 innings, allowing 3.73 earned runs per nine. He was probably a bit lucky to allow so few runs, as his 80.3% strand rate was well above the 72.1% league average, while his 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate were both subpar. Still, his 4.64 FIP and 4.72 SIERA still point to him being a passable back-end guy.

As of right now, the rotation to start the season would include Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd in four spots. Assad and Colin Rea would be candidates for the back end. If Assad is healthy, Rea could wind up in a long reliever role, or he could hold down the number five spot if Assad needs some time on the shelf.

Birdsell is further down the depth chart. A fifth-round pick from 2022, he is not yet on the 40-man roster. But he finished his 2024 season with 12 Triple-A starts with a 4.26 ERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. He’ll likely be back in the Iowa rotation to start 2025 as a top depth option, alongside guys like Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and Cade Horton.

Adding to the club’s starting mix is seemingly still a possibility. The Cubs were recently connected to the rumors surrounding Dylan Cease of the Padres. They also still have a bit of wiggle room in terms of the competitive balance tax, assuming they would rather not pay it this year. RosterResource puts their current CBT number at $209MM, more than $30MM away from the $241MM base threshold.

Cease is going to make $13.75MM this year, so he could easily fit into that remaining space. There are also a few mid-rotation pitchers still available in free agency, such as Andrew Heaney, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana and more. The club isn’t likely to rush out and make a panic move just because of a few spring injuries, but it’s an area they had their sights set on already. It’s possible that further developments that impact the overall group could increase the club’s desire to pivot to backup plans.

Reds Notes: McLain, Lux, Candelario, Ashcraft

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Matt McLain looked like a budding star following a 2023 campaign where he debuted for the Reds and slashed an incredible .290/.357/.507 in 89 games en route to a fifth place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Impressive as McLain was, however, his rising star came crashing down when he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery last March. He missed the entire 2024 campaign rehabbing but seemed poised to re-enter the club’s middle infield mix as the starting second baseman next to star shortstop Elly De La Cruz for 2025.

That was before the Reds landed Gavin Lux in a trade with the Dodgers, however. Lux has played second base for the overwhelming majority of his big league career outside of the rare cameo in the outfield and a few ill-fated attempts to try him at shortstop. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, club president Nick Krall has indicated that he expects Lux to play second base, left field, and DH for the Reds this year while also getting looks during Spring Training at third base and even shortstop as they look to sort out their mix of position players.

It’s a complicated puzzle the Reds will need to sort out this spring. De La Cruz is surely entrenched at shortstop, while Wittenmyer notes that Krall left the door open for veteran Jeimer Candelario to get the first crack at third base this year even after he struggled defensively at the position during an injury-marred 2024 campaign. If Candelario is at third base, that would open up first base for either Spencer Steer or Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Should Lux end up at second base, that would leave McLain without a spot on the infield, but it’s worth noting that the youngster took reps in center field during the Arizona Fall League this year and that C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic recently suggested that McLain could get a look in the outfield himself during Spring Training.

That complex infield picture seems likely to have a domino effect on the club’s outfield this year. Jake Fraley, Austin Hays, and TJ Friedl appear to be the three full-time outfielders locked into the Reds’ roster, but Fraley has long been a platoon player for Cincinnati while both Hays and Friedl are coming off difficult and injury-marred 2024 campaigns. That could open the door for the club’s excess infielders to take reps on the grass, with McLain standing out as an option in center field alongside Friedl while Steer and Lux could both be candidates to patrol the outfield corners.

Turning to the pitching staff, the club has an excess of potential starting pitching options that rivals its excess of potential infield options. Even before veteran Wade Miley returns from Tommy John surgery in May, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com notes that Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, and perhaps even non-roster invitee Chase Petty could be candidates for a rotation job with the club. The most likely starting five in that group, however, figures to be Greene, Singer, Lodolo, Abbott, and Martinez.

Notably, that leaves Ashcraft on the outside looking in. The right-hander has spent his entire big league career in the rotation so far, making 60 starts across the past three seasons. The results have left something to be desired, however, as he’s posted a lackluster 4.91 ERA (92 ERA+) in that time. That includes a 5.24 ERA (84 ERA+) in 77 1/3 innings of work across 15 starts last year. As noted by Rosencrans in a recent mailbag, Ashcraft appears unlikely to make the club’s rotation and may have even fallen behind Lowder to the seventh spot on the club’s rotational depth chart at this point.

That makes Ashcraft a prime candidate to move into a bullpen role, and Rosencrans notes that there’s an “internal belief” that Ashcraft could find success at the back of the bullpen for the Reds if he doesn’t make the cut for the club’s starting rotation. Alexis Diaz had a rollercoaster season in the closer role in 2024, and if he or veteran set-up men Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan struggle in 2025 it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine Ashcraft getting an opportunity to prove himself as a high leverage reliever.

Padres Notes: Morejon, Machado, Ownership

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With Spring Training just around the corner, the Padres held their annual FanFest event yesterday and the impending return of baseball was a hot topic. With trade rumors surrounding right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King while veteran Joe Musgrove figures to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October, the club’s rotation has been under particular scrutiny in recent weeks.

However, the Padres end up filling out their rotation come Opening Day, one potential candidate to start has been eliminated at this point: left-hander Adrian Morejon. According to a report from Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune yesterday, club manager Mike Shildt spoke about Morejon’s place on the roster yesterday and gave the lefty a vote of confidence in a relief role.

“Adrián has found a really nice niche in the bullpen,” Shildt said, as relayed by Sanders. “It’s a spot that we think he’s not only going to do as well as he did last year, but take the next step and he’s excited about remaining in the bullpen and just being a dominant guy in that spot.”

That’s a bit of a reversal from earlier this winter, when Morejon was among a handful of relievers identified by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller as potential rotation converts. Moving players from the bullpen to the rotation has become quite popular around the game in recent years, and Preller’s decision to sign Seth Lugo as part of the club’s rotation mix and Lugo’s subsequent transformation into a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm was a catalyst for that growing popularity.

Morejon was as sensible a candidate for such a conversion as any given his history as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, though given that 2024 was Morejon’s first healthy season as a big leaguer it’s understandable that the club has decided to keep him in the bullpen rather than risk more injuries by stretching him out. Stephen Kolek and Bryan Hoeing have also been discussed as potential converts to the rotation, but it remains unclear whether that’s still on the table for them entering camp or if, like Morejon, the Padres plan to keep them in relief roles for 2025. It’s even possible those decisions have not yet been made given the uncertainty surrounding the club’s rotation amid rumors of the club trading Cease or King.

Turning to the positional side of things, veteran third baseman Manny Machado spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday about the progress his elbow has made since undergoing offseason surgery last winter. That surgery cost him the final days of the 2023 season and kept him from returning to his typical post as the Padres’ regular third baseman until May, and continued to mix in occasional DH days throughout the first half. Machado noted that he dealt with the “lingering effects” of his surgery throughout the 2024 campaign, but made clear that “everything” has been different for him this offseason as he’s now “back to normal” for the first time post-surgery.

Whether that will be enough to help catapult the 32-year-old back into the .280/.352/.504 (130 wRC+) form he showed during his first four seasons in a Padres uniform remains to be seen, but it’s surely an encouraging sign for Padres fans that Machado is feeling healthier than he was last season, when he posted a 122 wRC+ with 3.6 fWAR. The veteran slugger has nine years left on the 11-year, $350MM deal he signed prior to the 2023 season, so Machado’s ability to maintain star-caliber production into his mid-to-late 30’s will be key to the Padres’ success over the coming decade.

While the Padres have been preparing for the coming season on the field and in the front office, a squabble between ownership stakeholders has been going on in the background. While the Padres announced back in December that Peter Seidler’s brother John Seidler was poised to take over as the franchise control person, that was seemingly put on hold when Peter’s widow, Sheel Seidler, filed a lawsuit against Peter’s other two brothers (and trustees of The Peter Seidler Trust) Matt and Bob Seidler. Matt Seidler subsequently filed a response to that lawsuit last week, and as the legal battle surrounding the role of Padres control person continues plenty of speculation has gone on among fans and media members about the future of the franchise.

As noted in a column by Matt Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times yesterday, however, one thing the Seidler brothers are resolute on is their commitment to owning the Padres. Shaikin notes that the brothers have “no plans to sell the Padres to anyone.” That apparently includes Sheel Seidler, whose legal counsel Dane Butswinkas, Shaikin reports, refused to answer whether or not she is attempting to buy her former brothers-in-law out of the franchise.

“Ideally, we would like to resolve this with the brothers,” Butswinksas said, as relayed by Shaikin. “However, for that to occur, it would take some level of cooperation from them. So far, we have seen no signs of that happening. The current path towards resolution, unfortunately, is through litigation, which we know can drag on for years and would be in no one’s interest.”

The possibility of a sale comes up in Shaikin’s piece, which MLBTR readers are encouraged to read in full, as part of a larger discussion about recent legal disputes between stakeholders within ownership groups in instances of divorce, illness, or death affecting a club’s primary owner. Those disputes, as Shaikin notes, have a history of being resolved through the sale of the team. Former Padres owner John Moores and, more recently, the Angelos family that formerly owned the Orioles are among previous owners who have sold their teams amid legal battles within the team’s ownership structure.

Dodgers Notes: Freeman, Glasnow, Rojas, Sheehan

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Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman led his team to the World Series championship in 2024, with series MVP honors to prove it. That postseason run came at the expense of his health, however, as he played through a bone bruise and sprain in his right ankle that eventually required him to undergo surgery in early December. At the time, the Dodgers suggested that Freeman would be able to “participate in baseball activities” during Spring Training, but that vague timeline did not set a date for when he would be ready to participate in games again.

Freeman himself offered a bit of clarity on the situation to reporters during the Dodgers FanFest event today. As noted by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Freeman has resumed swinging a bat again but has yet to start running to this point. With the start of Spring Training a matter of weeks away, it’s hardly a surprise that Freeman indicated he won’t be available for the first games of Cactus League play this spring. Freeman did say that he “expects” to be ready for the start of the Dodgers’ season in Tokyo on March 18, though of course with that just six weeks away a setback in his recovery could alter that timeline.

That Freeman should be ready for the start of the season is surely a relief for Dodgers fans, though it would hardly be a surprise if the club opted to be as careful with him as possible in order to ensure he starts the season on the right foot with as good of health as possible. The slugger’s .282/.378/.476 slash line in 147 games for the Dodgers in his age-34 campaign last year was a modest step back from his back-to-back top-4 MVP finishes in 2022 and ’23 but was still more than enough to put him on the shortlist for the very best first basemen in the sport last year. Freeman once again figures to help anchor the Dodgers lineup alongside fellow former MVPs Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani in 2025. It’s a lineup that largely looks the same as last year, though Michael Conforto has replaced Jason Heyward in the outfield mix while Hyeseong Kim has taken over for Gavin Lux at the keystone.

Aside from Freeman, however, the club appears to be generally healthy headed into Spring Training when looking at players who are expected to impact the 2025 team on Opening Day. Right-hander Tyler Glasnow was shut down in August due to an elbow sprain, but Dodgers Insider relays that Glasnow spoke at today’s fan event as well. The right-hander revealed that he’s resumed throwing and is feeling “as good as [he’s] ever felt.” The 31-year-old is one of the most dominant hurlers in the sport when healthy, but his 22 starts last year were a career high as he’s constantly battled injury woes throughout his career. With Glasnow seemingly poised to be ready for the start of the season, the Dodgers will surely hope that their plans to use a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Ohtani in his return to pitching can help Glasnow stay healthy enough to pitch for them in the postseason this year after he missed last year’s World Series run.

Turning back to the position player side of things, veteran infielder Miguel Rojas joined Freeman in playing through injury during the postseason and underwent sports hernia surgery after the season concluded. As noted by Ardaya, Rojas spoke about his recovery process during today’s fan event and revealed that he suffered from a post-surgery infection that delayed his ability to rehab for a couple of weeks. Fortunately, that now appears to be behind him as Rojas indicated he remains on track to be fully ready for Spring Training when it begins later this month. The addition of Kim in conjunction with Betts’s move back to the infield leaves Rojas without an everyday role headed into 2025, but he managed to carve out a role for himself in 103 games under similar circumstances last year despite a trip to the injured list.

As for players who aren’t expected to be ready for Opening Day, Ardaya notes that right-hander Emmet Sheehan provided an update on his recovery from Tommy John surgery for the first time since he went under the knife last May. The right-hander has resumed throwing off a mound at this point in his rehab and added that he hopes to start pitching in rehab games come May or June. That timeline would put him on the mound for those games just over a year after his surgery, putting him more or less on track for a normal recovery and to be a depth option out of the rotation or bullpen for L.A. in the second half this year.

Mets Notes: Alonso, Stanek, Jansen

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Per reporting from earlier this week, the Mets have an agreement in place to re-sign Ryne Stanek to a one-year deal. They almost made a very different bullpen addition, however. Both Andy Martino of SNY and Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Mets were talking to Kenley Jansen before agreeing to terms with Stanek.

The report from The Athletic suggests that the Mets couldn’t get the deal done, in part, because Jansen is looking for a chance to close. He currently has 447 saves, which puts him fourth on the all-time list. The 37-year-old doesn’t have much hope of catching Mariano Rivera (652 saves) or Trevor Hoffman (601), but he is just 53 away from getting to the 500-save plateau. He’s also not far from passing Lee Smith, who is in third place with 478, though Craig Kimbrel is also right behind Jansen at 440 and still active.

The Mets can’t really offer Jansen the closing role he’s looking for, however, as they have Edwin Díaz cemented as their ninth-inning guy. Jansen has also received reported interest from clubs such as the Tigers, Blue Jays and Cubs this winter, though likely has talked to several others without it leaking out. Those three clubs have all made bullpen additions this winter, with the Tigers signing Tommy Kahnle, the Jays signing Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García and the Cubs acquiring Ryan Pressly.

In the latter case, Pressly waived his no-trade clause from the Astros because he was unhappy with that club signing Josh Hader to replace him as the closer. It would therefore be quite stunning if the Cubs did the same thing to him by signing Jansen. The Tigers and Jays are better on-paper fits for bringing in a closer, though there are plenty of others. The Nationals, Angels, Diamondbacks and Brewers are some clubs that have competitive aspirations and don’t have a surefire closer.

Turning back to the Mets, Martino suggests that getting Stanek instead of Jansen keeps the door open a crack for a Pete Alonso return, since Jansen will surely sign for more than the $4.5MM guaranteed that Stanek got. The report from The Athletic suggests that, in addition to the lack of a closing opportunity, the Mets didn’t like Jansen’s price tag. No details were provided on what he’s looking for but late-30s relievers like Kirby Yates, Aroldis Chapman and Blake Treinen each got eight-figure salaries this winter.

The staredown between Alonso and the Mets has been going on for quite some time now. It does appear there is some mutual interest in a reunion, though the club’s behavior suggests they’re not too worried about him leaving. A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that they offered him a three-year deal that was valued in the $68-70MM range. When he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation turned that down, they reportedly decided it was time to leave the table and pivot to other options.

In the past few weeks, the Mets have seemingly pivoted to spreading money around to various other players. They have added A.J. Minter and Stanek to the bullpen in recent weeks, as well as bringing Jesse Winker back into the position player mix. None of those moves have explicitly blocked the path to a reunion with Alonso, but it’s possible they signal a willingness to spend their remaining budget on multiple smaller moves.

Both Martino and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that a depth/utility infielder is a remaining item on the to-do list. Jose Iglesias was a revelation for them in 2024, hitting .337/.381/.448 in 85 games, but became a free agent at season’s end. The Mets have a cluster of young infielders in Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty but likely want all of those guys getting regular playing time, either in the majors or the minors. Therefore, bringing back the still-unsigned Iglesias or some other veteran for a part-time role is a sensible addition.

RosterResource currently projects the club for a $301MM payroll and a $297MM competitive balance tax number. They had those numbers in the $330-360MM range in each of the past two years, so they could certainly still add a big contract if willing to get up there again. But despite the seemingly endless resources of owner Steve Cohen, president of baseball operations David Stearns has taken a disciplined approach to roster building. Rather than go for the top free agent pitchers like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, he opted for shorter deals for Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, in addition to playing hardball with fan favorite Alonso.

Alonso’s situation is one of the biggest unresolved storylines of the offseason, with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in about two weeks. Despite his huge home run power, he hasn’t found a contract offer to his liking yet. That’s likely due to his limited overall profile, as his defense, baserunning and pure hitting skills aren’t considered as strong as the power. His offense was also a bit lower in the past two years compared to his previous seasons. If he doesn’t return to Queens, clubs like the Blue Jays, Angels and Giants have also been in the mix for his services, but the offers from those clubs presumably haven’t been overwhelming, given that he is still unsigned.

Despite the frustrating winter, it doesn’t appear an agency change is upcoming. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, agents are being told they can’t contact Alonso, seemingly because the first baseman has no interest in switching representation at this time. The first baseman had switched before, going from Apex Baseball to Boras at the end of the 2023 season. Though his free agency is playing out in frustrating fashion, it’s understandable that he doesn’t view now as a good time to make such a significant change, with the new season so close.

It’s theoretically possible that he decides to switch representation later, as Jordan Montgomery did last spring. After his disappointing trip to free agency led to a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks, the lefty switched to Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman in April and later said that Boras “kind of butchered” his free agency. On the other hand, Blake Snell defended Boras after he also had to settle for a two-year deal. Snell ended up opting out and securing a five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers this winter. Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger also had disappointing free agencies with Boras last winter and have stuck with him. Chapman ended up getting a six-year, $151MM extension from the Giants. Bellinger didn’t use the first opt-out on his three-year deal but will have another chance after the upcoming season.

Twins Notes: Varland, Woods Richardson, Castro

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The Twins entered the 2024 season with high hopes that prospect and Twin Cities native Louie Varland would step up and seize a spot in the rotation. The former 15th-round pick had the look of a late-round steal, having climbed to the No. 88 prospect in the game on FanGraphs’ top-100 rankings after pitching to a 3.06 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate in 126 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022 and notching a 3.81 ERA through 26 frames in his MLB debut late that season. Varland posted a 3.97 ERA with similar strikeout and walk rates in 81 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2023 and then held his own with a 4.63 ERA and continued K-BB rates in his 2023 range.

The 2024 season, however, could scarcely have gone worse for Varland. He lasted four starts in the rotation before being optioned to Triple-A with a 9.18 ERA (17 runs in 16 2/3 innings). Varland had a rollercoaster season in Triple-A, resulting in a 4.75 ERA through 16 starts, though a disproportionate amount of damage came in one start that saw him tagged for a staggering 11 earned runs. (He had a combined 3.67 ERA in his other appearances.) A late look in the majors yielded poor overall results, though Varland did finish with a nice stretch of 7 2/3 innings, wherein he allowed two runs with an 11-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that as the Twins gear up for 2025, it appears increasingly likely that Varland will be ticketed for a relief role. The St. Paul native averaged better than 95 mph on his heater last season even when working as a starter; it’s reasonable to expect that velocity to play up in a transition to a shorter role. Varland has posted at least average swinging-strike rates in the upper minors and big leagues as well, so it stands to reason that he could see an uptick in whiffs with a more powerful repertoire.

One reason it’s become easier to move a former rotation hopeful like Varland to the ’pen has been the reemergence of Simeon Woods Richardson. The former top prospect had tumbled down Minnesota’s starting pitching depth chart heading into ’24 after a dismal 2023 showing in Triple-A. But, as Woods Richardson explained in a sitdown with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, an offseason and spring training of work with the Twins’ data team and coaching staff brought about a new arm slot that produced more velocity and a new-look slider that broke out as his most effective secondary pitch.

Woods Richardson wore down a bit late in the 2024 season as he pushed to a new career-high level in terms of workload (31 starts, 147 innings), but he finished the season with a 4.17 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. His four-seamer, which averaged just 90.7 mph in his brief MLB looks in 2022-23, sat at 93.1 mph on the season despite fading over his final six starts (92.1 mph average four-seamer, 6.75 ERA). Woods Richardson, acquired alongside Austin Martin in the trade that sent the final year-plus of control over Jose Berrios to Toronto, now looks like he’ll open the 2025 season locked into the No. 4 spot in Minnesota’s rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

Development from in-house arms of this nature will be key for the Twins in 2025, as ownership has handcuffed the baseball operations staff all offseason in terms of roster additions, as the Pohlad family explores a sale of the club. The Twins have been active in trade talks but have not yet pieced together a deal of much note. They’ve added some catching depth in small swaps for former top prospect Diego Cartaya and utilityman Mickey Gasper, but top trade candidates like Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack remain with the club. The Twins still would like to add at first base and pick up a right-handed hitting outfielder, but there’s been no trade of note and not one major league free agent signing thus far, given payroll constraints from ownership. The Twins may not need to cut payroll from its current level, but they also don’t have much (or any) room to raise it without a trade that trims some salary from the books.

With those financial limitations in mind, the front office is considering some time at first base for utilityman Willi Castro, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Twenty-six-year-old Jose Miranda, who bounced back from a 2023 season ruined by shoulder surgery to bat .284/.322/.441 last year (115 wRC+) is the top in-house option at the moment. He’s played 698 big league innings there and graded poorly from a defensive standpoint, although the former second baseman/third baseman was largely learning the position on the fly in 2022 when he tallied 595 of those innings; he’d entered that season with all of 225 career minor league innings at the position.

It seems unlikely that Castro would be a regular option at first, given the value of his versatility. He’s a viable backup at shortstop, second base, third base and anywhere in the outfield. Adding first base to that repertoire only further broadens his importance to the club. There’s been some thought that Castro and his own $6.4MM salary could be a candidate to change hands, though doing so would thin out the Twins’ depth at all those positions and remove one of the team’s best baserunners. With Minnesota at least ostensibly not required to slash payroll any further, trading Castro seems like a scenario to which the front office would be heavily opposed.

Mets Notes: Bregman, Nimmo, Minter

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Infielder Alex Bregman remains unsigned, with his market taking some turns recently. While returning to the Astros once seemed impossible, it now seems that door is open a crack. Other teams are still lurking but it doesn’t seem like the Mets will be jumping in. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that the Mets are no longer in the running.

The Mets were connected to Bregman earlier this winter but it always seemed like a somewhat less-than-perfect fit since the club has a lot of other options for the infield corners. First baseman Pete Alonso and the club have been in a bit of a staring contest for months and it’s still possible that he comes back to Queens. Even without Alonso, the Mets could have Mark Vientos as their regular first baseman and then have third base open for a competition between Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. Bregman is reportedly willing to move to second base but the Mets have Jeff McNeil there. McNeil can also play the outfield but the Mets have a somewhat crowded mix there.

Bregman is a more established big leaguer than any of the Mets young options but he wouldn’t come cheap. He reportedly has been unwilling to accept a six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros this winter, hoping to get something in the $200MM range. While the Mets might have had some interest in going with a more certain player like Bregman for the 2025 season, signing Bregman would be a larger commitment in terms of dollars and years. He’s about to turn 31 years old and the Baty/Acuña/Mauricio trio are all in the 22-26 range, so perhaps the Mets would rather dedicate their money elsewhere.

It also seems like Alonso is more likely to sign a short-term pact, having pitched a three-year deal to the Mets, while Bregman is still holding out hope for a long-term deal. Considering all those factors, it seems that a reunion with Alonso is probably more likely than pivoting to giving a big deal to Bregman.

Turning to players already on the roster, the club held Amazin’ Day recently, which allowed members of the media to get updates on certain players. Per two reports from Bill Ladson of MLB.com, both outfielder Brandon Nimmo and left-hander A.J. Minter are hoping to be ready before or around Opening Day.

Nimmo, the longtime Met, was playing through plantar fasciitis in his left foot during the latter parts of last year’s schedule. It’s possible that affected his performance, as he slashed .248/.361/.454 in the first half but just .190/.277/.319 in the second, followed by a tepid .220/.328/.280 performance in the postseason. He tells Ladson that he had an injection in his foot after the season and has ramped up to jogging, but has not yet started sprinting. He says he will probably miss some early spring training games but expects to be ready to go by Opening Day.

Getting a healthy season out of Nimmo hasn’t always been easy. Due to various injuries from 2016 to 2021, he only once topped 92 games and maxed out at 140. In 2022 and 2023, he finally showed what he could do with proper health. He got into at least 151 games in both of those campaigns and slashed a combined .274/.365/.450 for a 131 wRC+. Last year, despite the foot injury, he got into 151 contests but his production dipped to .224/.327/.399 and a 109 wRC+.

Nimmo turns 32 in March but his contract runs through 2030, so the club will obviously want to keep him healthy and productive for as long as possible. The fact that he’s trending towards Opening Day readiness is a good sign but the club will probably opt for playing things slow for long-term health if any speed bumps arise.

Minter, 31, was just signed a few days ago. His 2024 season was ended by left hip surgery in August. Regardless, the Mets liked him enough to give him a two-year, $22MM deal with an opt-out after year one. His recovery timeline in the wake of that procedure has been a little murky but he’s hoping to be ready for the start of the season as well.

“The goal is to be ready for Opening Day, hopefully,” Minter said. “With that being said, my hip does feel really good. I’m happy where I am. I don’t want to put a date on it. … The Mets are going to have their protocols. They want me to take it day by day. But for me, personally, my goal is to be ready close to Opening Day.”

Over the past five years, Minter has posted an earned run average of 2.85 over 267 appearances. He has struck out 30.1% of opponents while limiting walks to a 7.8% clip. His contributions were more limited last year due to the hip injury but the Mets are clearly hoping he can be back to his old self once that’s fully in the rear-view mirror.

Rockies Notes: Marquez, Relief Pitching, Condon

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Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt spoke with reporters (including the Denver Post’s Kyle Newman and Just Baseball Media’s Patrick Lyons) at the “Rockies Fest” fan event this weekend, addressing such topics as the health of several notable Colorado players.  German Marquez was one of those players, as Schmidt said the right-hander is recovered from the stress reaction in his right elbow that prematurely ended Marquez’s 2024 season.

Injuries have limited Marquez to five starts and just 24 innings for the Rox over the last two seasons.  The bulk of that injury layoff came in the form of Tommy John rehab, after Marquez underwent the procedure in May 2023.  He made it back to the big leagues by July of last season, but Marquez’s return lasted just a single game, and four innings in Colorado’s 8-5 win over the Mets on July 14.  Elbow inflammation soon sent Marquez to the 15-day IL after that one outing, and the stress reaction was discovered shortly thereafter.

Marquez has spent all nine of his Major League seasons with the Rockies, posting a 4.40 ERA over 996 innings from 2016-22.  The Rockies acknowledged Marquez’s durability and success at handling Coors Field with a five-year, $43MM contract extension in April 2019, with a $16MM club option for the 2024 campaign.  The option never ended up coming into play, as Marquez inked a new two-year, $20MM deal with Colorado in September 2023 that covered the 2024-25 seasons, and gave both sides a little more flexibility as Marquez recovered from his TJ surgery.

With the first season of that deal unfortunately going down as a wash, Marquez now faces extra pressure as an impending free agent.  Marquez’s first priority is just getting healthy and getting back onto a mound, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rockies make a move to lock him up on another extension if he pitches well in the early part of the season.  Despite his lengthy track record in the majors, Marquez doesn’t turn 30 years old until next month.

Any kind of rotation stability is sorely needed in Denver, both due to the infamous thin-air conditions and because of how hard the Rox have been hit by pitching injuries over the last few years.  Marquez is penciled into a rotation that also includes Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela (who also missed most of 2023-24 due to Tommy John rehab).  Between this group and some Triple-A arms nearing their big league debuts, Schmidt is hopeful the Rockies have amassed enough depth to withstand any further injuries or any struggles from the regular starters.

Some more pitching could be on the way in the form of relievers, as Schmidt indicated that the Rockies could yet add to their bullpen before Spring Training.  Diego Castillo, Jimmy Herget, Tommy Doyle, and Jake Woodford are among the pitchers with MLB experience who have been brought into the organization on minor league deals or waiver claims, and it remains to be seen if the Rockies’ pitching explorations will lead to any guaranteed contracts for bullpen help.

Infielders Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer are the only players the Rox have signed to guaranteed deals, both brought into the fold on one-year contracts.  It isn’t necessarily surprising that a team coming off 204 losses in the last two seasons isn’t aggressively spending, but the Rockies are continuing their unusual path of not entirely rebuilding, but also clearly focusing on younger talent.

Charlie Condon is one of those key building blocks for the future, and Schmidt said the team hadn’t yet decided where Charlie Condon will play in the minor leagues next season.  The third overall pick of the 2024 draft began his pro career in inauspicious fashion by hitting only .180/.248/.270 over 109 plate appearances for high-A Spokane, but Schmidt said Condon was trying to play through a bruised thumb that “he kind of didn’t tell us” about.

This injury could well explain those struggles, even though it isn’t unusual for even star prospects to face some growing pains in their first taste of professional baseball.  Condon was also moving right into his pro career on the heels of 60 games with Georgia during the 2024 NCAA season, with Condon crushing college pitching to the tune of a .433/.556/1.009 slash line and 37 homers over 304 PA.  In recently-released top-100 lists, MLB Pipeline rated Condon as the 29th-best prospect in the sport, and Baseball America ranked him 42nd.

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