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Dan Haren Trade Analysis

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The first domino fell tonight as an ace starter, Dan Haren, was dealt to the Diamondbacks for a bevy of prospects.  I believe the D’Backs won this one.  Let’s dig into the details.

Take Haren, a horse of an American League pitcher, and throw him in the easier league.  The D’Backs got themselves a bona fide ace to pair with Brandon Webb, and they get him for three years at a reasonable price.  He makes a mere $16.25MM over 2008-10; he’s worth at least three times that amount.   (Arizona also gets 26 year-old reliever Connor Robertson, who hasn’t really conquered Triple A yet.)

To balance out the immense value of Haren, the A’s get six young players.  Four of them represent the #1, 3, 7,  and 8th ranked prospects on Baseball America’s top ten for the team.

Carlos Gonzalez, 22, is the stud of the group.  He can play right or center and has definite star potential.  However, he’s no lock to become Carlos Beltran or Jeff Francoeur.

Southpaw starter Brett Anderson turns 20 in February.  He’s more about polish and command than stuff, and is a curious guy to be the main pitching prospect in the Haren deal.  He’ll try to tackle Double A in 2008.

We’ve discussed 21 year-old first baseman Chris Carter recently; the D’Backs just acquired him for Carlos Quentin.  Who knew it was setting up a Haren deal.  He’s a slow guy with massive power and plenty of strikeouts.  He’ll give High A ball a try in ’08.

Outfielder Aaron Cunningham turns 22 in April.  He’s one of those guys who doesn’t do anything poorly but isn’t great at any one skill either.  Baseball America thinks he’ll become a solid fourth outfielder.

24 year-old southpaw Dana Eveland came to Arizona along with Doug Davis.  He’s drawn David Wells comparisons and has proven himself in the high minors.  He missed a lot of ’07 with a torn tendon in his pitching hand. 

Greg Smith is a 24 year-old southpaw starter with a good curveball and mediocre fastball.  His strikeout rate was just 5.85 per nine at Triple A in ’07.

I’m surprised Billy Beane didn’t get more "sure thing" young players for his best trading chip.  Gonzalez will probably pan out, but he really needed a high octane near-MLB young gun starter too and he didn’t get it.  I will give him credit for spreading out his risk over six prospects, though.  Josh Byrnes gets an ace without giving up anyone he needed in ’08.

Dan Haren Traded To Diamondbacks

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It looks like Billy Beane has pulled the trigger on a trade for Dan Haren, sending him to the Diamondbacks for a package of prospects. The departed: Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, and Aaron Cunningham. The A’s also sent right Connor Robertson to the D’Backs.

The D’Backs also completed another deal, sending closer Jose Valverde to the Astros for Chris Burke, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez.

Tim will be around later to share his views on the trade.

–Joe

Odds and Ends: Rowand, A-Rod, Calero, Clemens

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Some odds and ends floating about…

Today’s Non-tenders: Towers, Prior, Everett, Durbin

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Tim’s out for the night, so we’ve got a fresh post started for the non-tenders.  MLB.com has a running list as well.

These guys are the officials as of now:

  • As expected, the Marlins non-tendered catcher Miguel Olivo.  Johnny Estrada was another casualty; these two make up the market for starting catchers.
  • The Blue Jays non-tendered Josh Towers, a surprising move.  Some NL team could offer him two years and get league average work out of him.
  • Mark Prior has been non-tendered.  Honestly if I were the Cubs, I would’ve tossed the $3.5MM his way just to see.
  • Aaron Miles is now a free agent.
  • The A’s cut Kiko Calero loose.
  • The Padres have non-tendered four: Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, and pitchers Jack Cassell and Ryan Ketchner. RotoWorld speculates that the latter two, not arbitration eligible, could be offered minor league deals.
  • The Royals cut the cord on Emil Brown.  He turns 33 soon; he hit an ugly .257/.300/.347 in 2007.  Brown earned $3.45MM in ’07.
  • The Tigers non-tendered Chad Durbin, toss him into the free agent pool.  Guess those trade talks with the Bucs didn’t work out.
  • The Twins have let go Jason Tyner.
  • The Nats have cut bait with Nook Logan and LHP Michael O’Connor.
  • The Dodgers wave goodbye to Mark Hendrickson.
  • The White Sox have non-tendered Andy Gonzalez and LHP Heath Phillips. Joe Crede sticks with the Pale Hose for now.
  • Adam Everett has lost his job with the Astros. It’d be kind of funny if the Orioles signed him.
  • Per RotoWorld, the Angels have non-tendered Dallas McPherson. He’s full of potential, but he’s never come through. He’s only 27, though, so he could still catch on somewhere. Unless, RotoWorld notes, he has an agreement in place with the Angels.
  • The Braves have non-tendered Willie Harris, though he had already been DFA’d.

–Joe and Tim

Indians Rumors: Haren, Blanton, Bedard, Inge

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Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer gets the Indians rumor mill churning.

  • As we mentioned earlier today, the Indians have spoken to the A’s about Dan Haren and Joe Blanton.  They’ve also inquired on Erik Bedard.  The Tribe is quietly looking to pair C.C. Sabathia with another ace.  Such an acquisition would soften the blow if Sabathia leaves after the ’08 season.  Hoynes says a Haren acquisition might require one player from the Indians’ 25-man roster plus at least one near MLB-ready guy.
  • The Tribe had brief talks with Detroit about Brandon Inge, but they’ve moved on.  Doesn’t seem to be much interest in Inge.
  • Cliff Lee and Kelly Shoppach weren’t part of the Jason Bay discussions.  Instead, the Pirates were looking for a slew of the Indians’ best prospects.  It seems the Bay talks have since cooled.

Surprise Players For Haren

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During the Winter Meetings, there wasn’t much talk of the Indians or Reds pursuing Oakland starter Dan Haren.  However, there’s buzz that both Ohio teams have interest. 

The Tribe definitely inquired on Haren.  See Susan Slusser’s article today, where she notes that Asdrubal Cabrera was "believed to be an A’s target."  The Indians don’t want to part with the young infielder, a player they stole from the Mariners in June of 2006 for Eduardo Perez.  Paul Hoynes further solidifies it, saying Mark Shapiro has spoken to Billy Beane about Haren. 

Slusser believes the Reds "might turn their focus toward Haren with an offer that could include starter Homer Bailey" if they can’t get Erik Bedard.  Slusser’s report is unclear whether Wayne Krivsky has had conversations with Billy Beane about Haren.  Ken Rosenthal says the Reds are "pushing for Haren," which does indicate talks. 

Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Cabrera, Kuroda, Edmonds, Rolen

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Ken Rosenthal checks in with the latest hot stove buzz around baseball.

  • Johan Santana is Boston’s only target – they’re not after Dan Haren or any other starter.  The talks keep slugging along.  For what it’s worth, Curt Schilling expects the Red Sox to get him.
  • 36 year-old first baseman Alex Cabrera is a sleeper power threat among free agents.  The former Rockie, Cub, and Diamondback has been mashing in Japan since 2001.  The Nationals don’t have any room for him but want him anyway.  Rosenthal says A.L. clubs are looking at him as a DH candidate, also.  Cabrera hit .295/.377/.512 with 27 HR in 441 ABs in Japan in 2007.
  • Hiroki Kuroda has not reached an agreement with any team, according to Rosenthal.
  • The Padres are still considering Jim Edmonds as a center field candidate.
  • Here’s a new one: the Indians expressed interest in Scott Rolen.  The talks have cooled however.
  • Rosenthal says the Astros don’t think they will get Miguel Tejada.  Instead they’ve moved on to…Ron Mahay and Jeremy Affeldt.

D’Backs Put Offer On Table For Haren

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According to John Mahnke of the East Valley Tribune, the Diamondbacks have a trade offer out to the A’s for Dan Haren.  The package includes Carlos Gonzalez, Emilio Bonifacio, and Brett Anderson – but not Max Scherzer. 

Gonzalez is apparently the headliner – the A’s would try him in center field even though he’s mostly played right.  Mahnke says Gonzalez hasn’t appeared in a winter league game in over a week, and that’s a sign that he’s part of a possible trade.

It’d be surprising to see Josh Byrnes pull this off without giving up any young Major Leaguers.  However, none have been named as part of Arizona’s offer as of yet.  The D’Backs are one of few teams that could pull this off without disrupting their big league club much.  Pairing Brandon Webb with Haren could really help the team plow through playoff series. 

Odds And Ends: Inge, Gagne, Pavano

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Couple of findings around the Internets:

  • Drew Sharp argues that Brandon Inge should stay with the Tigers. His argument is that Inge would still get 300 or so at bats and would be playing for a surefire contender. If he was to be traded, he likely wouldn’t land with a team nearly as good. Plus, with some of the injury histories of current Tigers, it might be best for Inge to wait around for playing time.
  • Though the Rangers were interested in Eric Gagne, they were only $6 million interested. For a one-year deal with an option, there was little chance of that happening. Gagne likely would have sooner accepted the Red Sox arbitration offer.
  • Carl Pavano will accept a minor league assignment after the Yankees release him this week. They need 40-man roster spots for Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera. They’ve already released Bronson Sardinha to make room for Andy Pettitte.
  • Monte Pool dislikes the idea of the A’s signing Barry Bonds. He mentions what you’d expect: The trial, his health, and the money.

–Joe

Coco Crisp’s Agent Speaks

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Coco Crisp’s agent, Steve Comte, supplied all sorts of quotes to the Boston Herald’s Rob Bradford.  Covelli’s not a fourth outfielder, he’s better than Jacoby Ellsbury, he’s a proven commodity, stuff like that.  It was interesting to read, and you can see where Crisp and Comte are coming from.  But it doesn’t really change anything, because if the Red Sox don’t trade Crisp and he wants his $4.75MM next year, he’s going to have to live with a reduced role.

Bradford mentions that the White Sox, A’s, Rangers, and Braves have inquired on Crisp.  The Padres, Twins, and Orioles have also been connected to him.

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