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Tyler Mahle To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Rocco Baldelli announced to reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Mahle, who’s scheduled to become a free agent at season’s end, will miss the remainder of the 2023 campaign and the early portion of the 2024 season as well.

It’s a brutal blow for a Twins team that traded three prospects to acquire the final year-plus of Mahle’s arbitration eligibility at last summer’s trade deadline. The 28-year-old Mahle has pitched well for the Twins when healthy, notching a 3.64 ERA in nine starts, but shoulder troubles limited him to just four appearances post-trade last year and he’s now done for the season in 2023 after just five starts. Given his impending free agency, it could spell the end of Mahle’s time with the team entirely — hardly what the front office had in mind when sending Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steven Hajjar to Cincinnati in that swap.

There’s still the possibility that the Twins could try to work out some type extension that’d keep Mahle in Minnesota beyond the current season. They’ve previously shown a willingness to work out that type of deal with pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Michael Pineda’s original two-year, $20MM free-agent deal with the Twins was signed knowing he’d miss the bulk of that first year recovering from a Tommy John operation. Minnesota also extended right-hander Chris Paddack — another trade acquisition who wound up requiring Tommy John — on a three-year deal earlier this year. Paddack won’t return until this summer.

Regardless of where things go with Mahle’s contract status, his injury leaves an unquestionable hole in the Twins’ rotation. Minnesota is deeper in starting pitching this season than at any point in recent memory, but Mahle will now join Kenta Maeda on the injured list. Right-handers Bailey Ober and Louie Varland began the season with Triple-A St. Paul and might well have been guaranteed rotation spots with many other clubs, given their 2022 success. They’ll both likely be locked into the Twins’ starting staff now, following a strong trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray.

Further injuries to the group could truly begin to test the Twins’ depth. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick have had tough starts in St. Paul — though Headrick excelled in a brief big league look — and former top prospect Jordan Balazovic is just now moving back into a starting role after his 2022 season was ruined by a knee injury. Prospects Josh Winder and Cole Sands were rotation options last year in Minnesota, but both have been primarily working out of the bullpen in 2023.

As it stands, the Twins’ starting five still looks like a strong group. Ober has been brilliant in 2023 (0.98 ERA and 18 1/3 innings through three starts) and now boasts a career 3.51 ERA in 166 2/3 MLB frames. Varland has a 4.32 ERA through three turns and, paired with last year’s handful of starts in his debut season, carries a 4.01 ERA in 42 2/3 big league innings. The previously mentioned Paddack isn’t yet ready to join the group, but he’s nearing the one-year anniversary of his own Tommy John operation. He could be ready for a return mid-summer, and the team is also hopeful that Maeda can avoid a prolonged stint on the injured list — though they’ve not yet placed a hard timetable on his return.

Pirates Outright Chase De Jong

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Pirates reliever Chase De Jong has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. He’s gone unclaimed on waivers multiple times in his career, giving him the right to elect minor league free agency.

De Jong has spent parts of three seasons with Pittsburgh. He started nine games with middling results in 2021 but found more success upon moving to the bullpen last year. De Jong threw 71 2/3 innings over 42 appearances for the Bucs, compiling a 2.64 ERA. It was mostly low-leverage work and De Jong’s peripherals weren’t aligned with his strong run prevention.

The right-hander struck out a below-average 20.1% of batters faced while walking 10.2% of opponents. De Jong’s run prevention and ability to work multiple innings nevertheless secured his 40-man roster spot throughout the winter. The Bucs kept the out-of-options De Jong in their season-opening bullpen, but he lost his roster spot with a slow start. Through 9 1/3 frames, he’s allowed 11 runs on 13 hits and five walks. De Jong’s swinging strike rate fell from a serviceable 10.5% rate to a modest 5.2% clip.

De Jong will now decide whether to report to Indianapolis or scour the market for other opportunities. He’d likely be limited to minor league offers as a free agent but could look elsewhere for clearer paths back to the MLB roster and/or a potential opt-out date in a non-roster contract. De Jong has pitched parts of seven seasons in Triple-A, working to a 5.59 ERA with a 19.3% strikeout percentage over 211 innings.

Orioles’ Terrin Vavra Taking Catching Drills To Expand Versatility

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The Orioles recalled utility player Terrin Vavra from Triple-A Norfolk earlier in the week. Vavra has MLB experience at second base and in both corner outfield spots, so it was clear he’d add some defensive flexibility to the Baltimore bench, but he’s expanding his versatility in an interesting way.

As Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes, the Orioles have experimented with Vavra as a possible emergency catcher. He appeared behind the plate twice with Norolk during his most recent optional assignment, logging four combined innings. Vavra didn’t start any games — the Tides deployed him only in mop-up work — but it’s possible he eventually logs time behind the dish a little more frequently.

Kubatko notes the O’s have considered giving Vavra some catching time since last year. He did some work there in Spring Training drills and the Minnesota product tells Kubatko he’d caught some offseason bullpen sessions from Dodger reliever J.P. Feyereisen (who lives near Vavra over the winter). The four innings with the Tides marked his first game action behind the dish since high school, however.

The O’s aren’t going to throw Vavra into an important catching role out of the gate. Baltimore has one of the sport’s top backstops in Adley Rutschman, while veteran James McCann is on hand as the backup. The O’s don’t have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, though Luis Torrens is presently in DFA limbo. Manager Brandon Hyde confirmed it’d take an emergency situation, presumably injury substitutions from the top two backstops, for Vavra to log any MLB time there in the short term. The 25-year-old is clearly amenable to working on the position in an effort to increase his value off the bench over the longer haul.

A left-handed hitter, Vavra has tallied 31 MLB plate appearances this year. He’s up to 134 trips to the dish in his career, posting a .252/.333/.313 batting line with one home run. The former third round draftee has walked in a quality 11.2% of his plate appearances against a decent 20.1% strikeout rate.

Matt Chapman Is Mashing His Way To A Massive Payday

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From 2018-19, the short list of baseball’s best all-around players would’ve unequivocally included then-Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman. The 2014 No. 25 overall pick graduated from top prospect status to everyday big league third baseman in the second half of the 2017 season, and by 2018 he’d thrust himself into the fringes of the American League MVP conversation. Chapman finished sixth in AL MVP voting in 2018 and seventh in an All-Star 2019 season. He batted a combined .263/.348/.507 with 60 home runs between those two seasons, winning Gold Gloves at third base each year. Chapman ranked eighth among all position players with 12 Wins Above Replacement from 2018-19, per FanGraphs.

The A’s had a star third baseman on their hands and were seeing a young core that included Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Ramon Laureano blossom into the foundation of a perennial contender. That group never advanced beyond the ALDS but did respectively win 97, 97, 34 and 86 games in 2018-21 before the front office tore things down in the 2021-22 offseason as Athletics ownership embarked on a Rachel Phelps-esque plan to push the team out of Oakland.

Part of the reason the A’s missed the postseason in that 86-win 2021 campaign was undoubtedly that Chapman had taken a step back in production following 2020 hip surgery. That’s not to pin the team’s playoff miss solely on the star third baseman, of course, but Chapman’s production dipped in 2020 as his strikeout rate soared to 35.5% while he played through tendinitis and a torn labrum in his hip. His 2021 campaign saw Chapman post a career-worst .210/.314/.403 batting line with a 32.5% strikeout rate — a far cry from the MVP-caliber output he flashed in 2018-19.

Though they were selling at a low point, Oakland still traded Chapman to the Blue Jays amid that 2021-22 offseason teardown, receiving top pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-handed starter Zach Logue (whom they lost on waivers the following winter) and left-handed reliever Kirby Snead. Chapman’s first year in Toronto was solid but still nowhere close to his previous heights; he played top-shelf defense, as always, but his .229/.324/.433 batting line (117 wRC+) was good — not great. He swatted 27 home runs and succeeded in lowering his strikeout rate back beneath the 30% level, but it still sat at a well above-average 27.4%.

Chapman was a good player, to be sure, but from 2020-22 he hit .221/.314/.432. His plus power (64 homers, .211 ISO in 1395 plate appearances) and standout defense still made him a valuable, above-average regular at third base, but he no longer looked like the budding superstar he did during that 2018-19 peak — at least… not until 2023.

We’re just six weeks into the season, but Chapman has not only rebounded substantially from that 2020-22 downturn, he’s eclipsed even his peak levels of production thus far. Through his first 153 trips to the plate, Chapman is hitting .338/.425/.579 with five home runs. His 17 doubles are already more than he hit in the entire 2021 season. The strikeout rate that spiked north of 30% and sat at 27.4% a year ago is down to 25.5%, with reason to believe it could improve further.

Chapman’s 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate are both markedly better than the respective league averages of 10.9% and 31.4%. That doesn’t guarantee his strikeout rate will come down, but chasing bad pitches and whiffing less often than the league-average hitter should, in theory, eventually push his strikeout rate south of the league average.

Beyond the gains in strikeout rate and contact rate, Chapman is simply decimating the ball when he puts it into play. No one in baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Chapman’s 95.3 MPH mark, and his ludicrous 28.7% barrel rate is the best in MLB by an enormous margin of six percentage points. Aaron Judge is second at 22.7%, and there are only six total hitters in MLB at 20% or higher. An astonishing 67% of Chapman’s batted balls have left the bat at 95 mph or more.

Given the authority with which Chapman is hitting the ball, it’s actually a bit surprising he’s only connected on five home runs. His launch angle is right in line with his 2018-19 levels, and he’s hitting the ball in the air more often than he did in his previous peak years. After hitting a fly-ball in 41.3% of his plate appearances in 2018-19, Chapman is at 47.9% in 2023. A smaller percentage of those fly balls are of the infield variety (8.9% versus 15.9%), too. He’s curiously seen just 11.1% of his flies become home runs this year, compared to the 16.6% rate he enjoyed during his career with Oakland. That’s despite hitting the ball harder now and playing in a more homer-friendly venue; it stands to reason that Chapman’s home run output will be on the upswing sooner than later, provided he maintains this quality of contact.

Maintaining this pace, of course, will be difficult to do. Chapman’s clearly enjoying some good fortune right now, evidenced by a massive .449 average on balls in play. He’s already begun to see some regression, hitting .206/.308/.265 in 39 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to May. That dip in production is attributable not only to a drop in his BABIP, but more concerningly a spike in his strikeout rate. We’re looking at a small sample within a small sample, and the endpoints are admittedly arbitrary, but Chapman has fanned in exactly one-third of his plate appearances this month.

It was never reasonable to expect Chapman, a career .240/.329/.469 hitter entering the season, to sustain a batting average in the high-.300s, of course. But he’s regularly shown an ability to make high-quality contact in the past, so the big thing to keep an eye on with him as he approaches his first trip to free agency at season’s end was always going to be his contact rates.

If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play. He’s still walking at an excellent 11.8% clip, after all, and his glovework at third base remains well-regarded. Statcast currently has him at one out below average but also tabs him in the 83rd percentile in terms of arm strength. He’s been credited with five Defensive Runs Saved already, and he’s sporting a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. To date, Chapman has only made two errors this season.

His ability to sustain his elite contact and avoid reverting to his bloated strikeout rates over the next five months will be particularly telling. While Chapman once looked like he’d be the third-best free agent at his own position, the equation has changed substantially. Both Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed long-term extensions to keep them in Boston and San Diego, respectively, leaving Chapman as the clear No. 1 third baseman on the market.

At this rate, however, Chapman won’t be just the clear top option at third base — he looks like he’ll be far and away the best position player on the market (excluding two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who’s in a free-agent tier unto himself). The upcoming free-agent class is utterly devoid of impact bats. Teoscar Hernandez, a resurgent Cody Bellinger, a somewhat resurgent Joey Gallo, and Hunter Renfroe look like the top bats who’ll be available. There’s still some time for that to change — a torrid summer from Javier Baez or Josh Bell could alter the calculus, for instance — but right now the market for position players is decidedly bleak.

When we were first kicking around thoughts and ideas for the initial installment of our 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes floated the idea of Chapman surpassing a $200MM guarantee. That was on April 4. The number felt jarring and unrealistic, and he received plenty of pushback on the idea due to Chapman’s hip surgery, uptick in strikeouts and general downturn in production since 2020.

Just a few weeks later, that type of contract feels far, far more plausible. Chapman has been the best hitter in baseball for nearly a quarter of the season, and the market surrounding him will be among the thinnest in recent memory. Perhaps that’ll lead to an uptick in trade activity throughout the league, but for teams looking to pad their roster without depleting the farm system (and without spending half a billion dollars on Ohtani), Chapman currently looks like he’ll be the best bet. Add in his defensive prowess and the fact that he won’t turn 31 until late next April — plus last year’s spike in ultra-long, CBT-skirting contracts — and it increasingly looks like Chapman and agent Scott Boras will be in prime position to break the bank.

AL Notes: Moncada, Lewis, Glasnow

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The White Sox could welcome third baseman Yoan Moncada back tomorrow, manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters, including James Fegan of The Athletic. It doesn’t seem to be confirmed yet but Moncada, who has been rehabbing with Triple-A Charlotte, won’t be playing with them tonight.

Moncada was off to a great start this year, hitting .308/.325/.564 through nine games before landing on the injured list with back tightness. It was later revealed that the pain was caused by a protruding disc that was touching a nerve. It seems he’s moved passed the issue, if the minor league numbers are any indication. He’s hit a comical .571/.667/1.071 through five rehab games for Charlotte. Getting Moncada back without missing a beat would be a tremendous boost for the Sox, who have also seen Moncada’s replacement Jake Burger hit the injured list recently.

2022 was a disappointing season for Moncada, who dealt with various injuries and hit just .212/.273/.353 in 104 games. But a healthy Moncada can be a gamechanger, as he showed with a .263/.375/.412 performance in 2021. With a 13-26 record, they’ll need a boost like that to help them get back into contention.

Some other notes from around the American League Central…

  • Twins infielder Royce Lewis began a rehab assignment today with Double-A Wichita. As Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic writes, Lewis is expected to play both shortstop and third base during his rehab stint as he looks to recover from last year’s torn ACL. A shortstop for the majority of his career thus far, Lewis started spending a bit of time in the outfield last year in deference to Carlos Correa. Now that Correa is locked in as the shortstop in Minnesota for the foreseeable future, he probably has a better path to playing time at third, where the club just optioned José Miranda yesterday. The first overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis has long been considered one of the top prospects in baseball but has been frequently held back by injuries. He posted an excellent .300/.317/.550 batting line in his first 12 major league games last year before tearing the ACL in his right knee, the second year in a row he was felled by tearing that ligament.
  • Rays’ fans were dealt a minor scare yesterday when Tyler Glasnow left his rehab outing after one inning because of some side soreness. The club maintained the removal was precautionary, and it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for concern. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters before tonight’s win over the Yankees that Glasgow’s tests came back clear and he’s expected to resume his rehab stint next Tuesday (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). The big righty is ticketed for one following rehab start as he works back from an oblique strain that sent him to the IL to open the season. He should be back in the MLB rotation thereafter if all goes as planned. The Rays have had no issues without Glasnow, sprinting to a 30-9 start to open the year.

The Rangers’ Quietly Excellent Catcher

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A five-player trade between the A’s and Rangers in February of 2021 grabbed immediate headlines due to the recognizable names at the top of the deal. Texas sent stalwart shortstop Elvis Andrus to the division-rival A’s in a swap that brought baseball’s most consistent .247-hitting, 40-homer slugging designated hitter, Khris Davis, to Arlington. It was an exchange of players who’d become lineup fixtures but also had seen their respective contract extensions turn sour for their organizations. The Rangers kicked in $13.5MM to make the trade happen. They also sent backup catcher Aramis Garcia to the A’s and received minor league righty Dane Acker and a catching prospect of their own.

Fast forward two years, and that prospect, Jonah Heim, has become a centerpiece of the Rangers’ roster.

Heim’s development certainly wasn’t immediate. A fourth-round pick by the Orioles back in 2013, the now-27-year-old backstop was traded twice — first for Steve Pearce, and second for Joey Wendle — before making his debut seven years later, during the shortened 2020 season. Heim hit .211/.268/.211 in 41 plate appearances as a rookie and was ranked between eighth and fifteenth in Oakland’s system at the time he was traded to Texas.

That shaky age-25 debut could certainly be attributed to a small sample and the general strangeness of the 2020 campaign, but Heim received a heftier 285 plate appearances with the Rangers in 2021 and turned in a dismal .196/.239/.358 batting line. He managed to swat 10 home runs, but Heim rarely walked and even though he struck out at a better-than-average 20.4% clip, he rarely made great contact (87.1 mph average exit velocity, 37.3% hard-hit rate). Defensively, he was excellent, but Heim’s lack of offense made him look like a backup or part-time option behind the dish.

The Rangers seemed to agree, as they entered the 2021-22 offseason in search of catching upgrades and, just after the lockout ended, swung a deal to acquire slugging catcher Mitch Garver from the Twins. Heim started 12 of the Rangers’ first 28 games behind the plate, but an injury to Garver opened up the door for a larger role. Even when Garver returned relatively quickly from a flexor strain, the Rangers kept him at designated hitter. Prospect Sam Huff came up from Triple-A and saw some of the workload at catcher, but Heim’s early performance at the plate and his excellent defense earned him the larger portion of playing time.

From May 9 through season’s end, Heim started 70% of the Rangers’ games behind the plate. He didn’t sustain the torrid .342/.457/.658 line he’d compiled through his first 12 games, of course, but he finished out the year with a .227/.298/.399 batting line and 16 home runs. His walk rate jumped from 5.3% to 9.1%, and he cut his strikeout rate by a percentage point (19.3%). Heim also upped his average exit velocity by more than two miles per hour and increased his hard-hit rate by two percentage points. It was a series of small gains, but when paired with Heim’s defense, it resulted in a highly valuable all-around player. Heim trailed only the Yankees’ Jose Trevino in pitch-framing value, per Statcast, and Defensive Runs Saved (which doesn’t include framing) credited him with a plus-8 mark. Baseball-Reference pegged him at 2.5 wins above replacement. FanGraphs had him at 2.8 WAR.

That’s enough to consider Heim a starting-caliber catcher in and of itself, but the switch-hitter is in the midst of an offensive breakout that’s further elevating his profile in 2023. Through his first 123 trips to the plate, Heim has turned in a ridiculous .318/.382/.555 batting line with six home runs — already 37.5% of the way to his 2022 total despite having accumulated just 27% as many plate appearances.

Heim has undoubtedly benefited from a .354 average on balls in play, but there’s more than just good fortune at play. Heim has upped his contact on pitches in the strike zone from 88% to 90.1%. His average exit velocity has jumped another 2.2 miles per hour, and he’s seemingly made a more concerted effort to elevate the ball. After posting a 40% grounder rate in 2021 and a 39.1% rate in 2022, he’s hitting the ball on the ground in just 29.5% of his plate appearances this season. Heim has improved his launch angle in each of his big league seasons, and he’s nearly doubled last year’s barrel rate. Statcast ranks him in the 94th percentile or better in “expected” batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Whether Heim can sustain that pace is up for debate. He had similarly encouraging batted-ball metrics during last year’s hot start to the season, though that came in a smaller sample of plate appearances by virtue of the fact that he was playing less often. By the time Heim had reached his current number of plate appearances, he was sitting on roughly average exit velocity and hard-hit rates. At the very least, he’s maintained a high-caliber batted-ball profile over nearly double the sample of his hot start in ’22 — and he’s done so while again grading out as a premier defender at his position.

Dating back to the 2021 season, Heim is now a .246/.312/.426 hitter — about 12% better than league-average by measure of wRC+. The league-average catcher hit .226/.295/.367 in 2022 (89 wRC+) and is hitting .242/.314/.389 (94 wRC+) so far in 2023. Heim is comfortably ahead of that pace even if he reverts to a mirror image of his 2022 production for the remainder of the season, and if he can sustain any of his new flyball-oriented approach and hard-contact gains, he’ll cement himself as one of the best catchers in the league.

Heim isn’t even eligible for arbitration yet — that’ll come this offseason — and the Rangers control him all the way through the 2026 season. Three different organizations have felt comfortable trading him to this point in his career, and never in exchange for a marquee player. Heim never ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects and never climbed higher than 13th on any of his four organizations’ top-30 rankings at Baseball America.

Despite that lack of fanfare in the minors, Heim has emerged as an everyday option on an ascendent Rangers club and improbably looks like one of baseball’s best all-around catchers. Texas doesn’t have a catcher in its top-30 prospects at Baseball America or MLB.com right now. They control Heim for another four years, so there’s hardly any urgency to explore an extension, but if he’s willing to sign on for a team-friendly deal right now, it’d be worth looking into the possibility of securing a core piece whose affordable salaries could help balance out the huge sums they’ve paid to their recent free-agent signings.

On that note, critics of the Rangers often like to scoff at the team’s efforts to buy a championship. They spent more than half a billion dollars in the 2021-22 offseason when they signed Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. They followed up with nearly a quarter-billion more this past offseason when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to re-signing Martin Perez (among other, smaller-scale moves).

There’s little denying that a large portion of the team’s core has been acquired via free agency, but that’s only been a piece of the puzzle. They hit the jackpot in simultaneously acquiring Heim and shedding some of the Andrus contract, and they’ve done well to land both breakout slugger Nathaniel Lowe and Brock Burke in separate trades with the Rays over the past four years. The Rangers haven’t drafted well — Josh Jung’s excellent start to the 2023 season notwithstanding. Perhaps that played a role in the team moving on from longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, but several of Daniels’ trade acquisitions have panned out, and Heim’s breakout has been a large part of that.

Angels, Meibrys Viloria Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Meibrys Viloria, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Salt Lake. It’s their second non-roster deal of the day, as they also added reliever Reyes Moronta this morning.

It’s a sensible depth addition for Los Angeles. The Halos have been dealt a serious of injuries to their catching core. Rookie Logan O’Hoppe had his blistering start cut short by a labrum tear in his shoulder last month. He’ll miss most or all of the season. Expected backup Max Stassi opened the season on the injured list with a hip strain. Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that Stassi has been attending to a family emergency and is without a timetable for his return.

That left the Angels counting on Matt Thaiss as their starter. They selected veteran backstop Chad Wallach from Triple-A but quickly lost him to concussion-like symptoms. The Halos then tabbed Chris Okey — a career .208/.283/.333 Triple-A hitter — as Thaiss’ backup. It’s understandable they’d look to add a player with upper level experience to the organization.

Viloria, 26, has appeared in parts of five major league seasons between the Royals, Rangers and Guardians. He’s functioned in a depth capacity for the majority of that time, tallying 280 cumulative plate appearances. He’s just a .198/.270/.279 hitter against big league pitching, but he’s been quite a bit better in Triple-A. The lefty-swinging backstop owns a .257/.395/.412 line over 430 trips at the top minor league level.

The Guardians carried Viloria on the MLB roster as their third catcher to start the season. He barely played, hitting just four times in roughly a month before being designated for assignment. Upon clearing waivers last week, he elected minor league free agency and quickly finds a new opportunity. The Halos’ injuries figure to give him a good shot at returning to the MLB roster. Viloria is out of minor league options, so if he’s promoted at any point, the Angels will have to keep him in the majors or DFA him themselves.

According to the transaction log, the Angels also optioned veteran first baseman Jake Lamb to Salt Lake. As a player with over five years of major league service, Lamb would ordinarily have the right to decline any minor league assignment in favor of free agency. However, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (on Twitter) that Lamb had agreed to a 45-day window from the start of season in which the Halos could send him down without exposing him to waivers.

That would have closed this weekend, so the Angels decide to send him down. The lefty-hitting Lamb is hitting only .216/.259/.353 through 54 plate appearances. He’ll remain on the 40-man roster but moves into a depth capacity as the Angels near the return of Jared Walsh. The 2021 All-Star will begin a minor league rehab assignment this weekend as he works back from insomnia that delayed his start to the season.

Giants Place Austin Slater On Injured List

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The Giants announced this evening they’ve placed outfielder Austin Slater on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain. Bryce Johnson was recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s a rough break for Slater, who pulled up while running during yesterday’s loss to the Nationals. Slater had also lost the first three weeks of the season to a left hamstring strain. It’s been a tough opening to the year for the 30-year-old, who has been limited to just six starts thus far. He’d played well in that limited look, hitting .368/.455/.421 with two stolen bases through 22 trips to the plate.

The right-handed hitting Slater has been a productive role player for San Francisco for a few seasons. He’s now appeared in parts of seven campaigns and set his career high in playing time last year. Slater tallied 325 plate appearances of .264/.366/.408 hitting while starting a little less than half the club’s games in 2022. He’s taken particular advantage of favorable platoon matchups. For his career, Slater is a .291/.381/.473 hitter against left-handed pitching.

Slater’s absences have contributed to the Giants’ struggles against southpaws. San Francisco ranks just 26th in on-base percentage (.294) and 27th in slugging (.362) against left-handed pitching. Johnson adds a switch-hitter to the outfield mix but is more of a speed and defense type than a major offensive threat.

The Dodgers’ Youth Movement Is Showing Positive Results

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The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.

What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.

James Outman

Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.

Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.

In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Miguel Vargas

Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.

The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.

The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.

Michael Busch

Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.

Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller

These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.

Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.

Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.

Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.

Future Options

Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.

Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.

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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.

Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.

On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.

Athletics Select Zach Neal, Place Mason Miller On IL With Forearm Tightness

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4:10pm: The A’s announced Neal’s selection, along with the recall of right-hander Luis Medina. In corresponding moves, righty Rico Garcia was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas while righty Mason Miller was placed on the 15-day injured list. Catcher Manny Piña was transferred to the 60-day injured list to make room on the 40-man for Neal. Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle relays that Miller’s IL placement is due to right forearm tightness. Pina has been on the IL all year due to a lingering wrist issue and was recently pulled off his rehab after suffering a setback. He won’t be eligible to return until 60 days from the initial IL placement, which would be late May.

10:04am: The A’s are set to select the contract of righty Zach Neal prior to tonight’s game, reports Martin Gallegos of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’s expected to make a spot start tonight against Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers. Neal inked a minor league deal with the Athletics last month.

It’ll be the second stint with Oakland for Neal, who also pitched there in 2016-17, logging a combined 4.89 ERA in 30 appearances (six starts). That accounts for the vast majority of Neal’s big league experience, though he also tossed one inning for the Dodgers in 2018. Overall, he carries a 4.94 ERA, 10.5% strikeout rate and 2% walk rate in 85 2/3 innings at the MLB level.

Now 34 years old, Neal hasn’t pitched in the Majors since that one-off  appearance with the ’18 Dodgers. He spent the 2019-21 seasons with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, working to a combined 4.49 ERA with a 12.4% strikeout rate against a 5.6% walk rate. Neal logged a 2.87 ERA in 100 1/3 innings in his first year with the Lions but was north of 5.00 in his second and third seasons in Japan.

Neal spent the 2022 season with the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate but was tagged for a 6.87 ERA in that hitter-friendly setting. He’s opened the 2023 campaign with similarly shaky results in another hitter-friendly setting, Las Vegas, allowing seven runs on eight hits and five walks with 11 punchouts in 11 1/3 innings (5.56 ERA).

The A’s have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a corresponding transaction to get Neal onto the roster. They’ve already turned over nearly their entire bullpen since the season began and could make yet another move there to accommodate Neal’s addition. Righty Zach Jackson and lefty Sam Moll are the only two members of Oakland’s Opening Day relief corps who are still currently in the bullpen.

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