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MLB Trade Rumors: Bringing You Independent Hot Stove News And Analysis For 18 Years

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Over the weekend, MLB Trade Rumors celebrated its 18th birthday!  MLBTR just went and bought its first pack of smokes.

18 years is a long time, especially for an internet business.  I’ve seen a lot of other sites come and go, change ownership, and move into gambling.  But we’re still doing what we always have.  We put all worthy MLB trade and free agency news in one place.  We’ve perfected the art of getting news up quickly while still supplementing with tons of our own context and analysis.  This is not an easy job, as our writers Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, Mark Polishuk, Nick Deeds, and Leo Morgenstern could tell you.

That’s our entire writing team here at MLB Trade Rumors.  October and November are big months for high-quality original work at MLBTR.  We just completed Offseason Outlook posts for all 30 teams.  We published Matt Swartz’s widely-used arbitration projections.  And today, we unveiled our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, complete with contract and team predictions and 20,000+ words of analysis.

There are long-term ups and downs with any business.  2023 has been a down year: our revenue is down over 23%, to be particular.  MLBTR has historically been primarily ad-supported, and that will continue.  But ads are not always a reliable source of revenue, which is why I launched our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service during the pandemic in 2020.

With Trade Rumors Front Office, we’ve created another revenue source to help ensure MLBTR’s longevity and independence.  In doing so I wanted to be sure to provide great value to those who subscribe.  I think we have been successful at that.  Here is what $29.89 per year gets you:

  • Removal of ads on MLB Trade Rumors and in our app
  • Exclusive weekly hot stove articles from expert MLB writers Steve Adams and Anthony Franco
  • Exclusive member-only online chats with Anthony Franco every week
  • MLB Contract Tracker: a high-powered tool featuring more than a decade of free agent contracts and extensions
  • MLB Agency Database: agencies for more than three-quarters of those who played in MLB in the last three seasons, compiled from industry sources

Your subscription supports MLBTR directly, and we offer a 100% money-back guarantee.  Subscribe to Trade Rumors Front Office today.  And we hope you enjoy our Top 50 Free Agents list!

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

John Mozeliak On Cardinals’ Offseason Spending, Molina, Bloom

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke with members of the media (including John Denton of MLB.com) on Monday at the GM meetings to discuss the offseason ahead. He addressed the team’s budget for 2024 and touched on how he plans to revamp the starting rotation. The executive also fielded questions about a coaching role for Yadier Molina, as well as rumors concerning a potential front office job for former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom.

After finishing the 2023 season with a 71-91 record, good for last place in the NL Central, there is no denying that the Cardinals need to spend in free agency if they hope to contend in 2024. That doesn’t mean the team is going to spend recklessly, however, as Mozeliak said they plan to be “prudent” with their expenditures. More specifically, he explained that the Cardinals will likely operate with a similar payroll next season as they planned to run this past year before selling off several veterans at the trade deadline. That means they have about $44MM to work with this winter (per Denton), although one would think they’d be willing to go slightly above that number for the right player. After all, sometimes the prudent move is to spend a little bit extra to land the best free agent targets.

The Cardinals have made it clear that starting pitching is their top priority, and for good reason. Their starters finished with the third-worst ERA and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the National League last season, and their numbers only got worse after the rotation lost Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline.

In August, Mozeliak said he planned to bring in three new starters this offseason. He essentially repeated that sentiment on Monday, although he specified that he’s looking for two full-time starters, plus “someone that can maybe split roles.” The Cardinals already have veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz penciled into the rotation for 2024. They also have several talented young arms waiting in the wings, including former first-round picks Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore, trade deadline acquisition Drew Rom, and top prospects Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy. None of those pitchers is quite ready to be trusted with an Opening Day job on the starting staff, but Mozeliak is hoping that at least a few of them will pitch “meaningful” big league innings in 2024.

There is rarely such thing as too much pitching depth, but still, if the Cardinals were to add three bona fide starters this winter, they could end up with a logjam in the rotation. That would mean limited opportunities for their young arms, and the Cardinals aren’t going to mortgage the future of the rotation for short-term gains in 2024.

With that in mind, it’s understandable why Mozeliak is interested in adding a hybrid starter/reliever who could pitch in the rotation if need be but could easily step aside if a more promising pitcher forces the issue. Nick Martinez is the most intriguing arm who fits that description, while other options on the open market include Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, Jakob Junis, and Alex Wood.

In terms of additions beyond the roster, Mozeliak also answered questions regarding Yadier Molina, the beloved former Cardinal who is expected to join the coaching staff in 2024, and Chaim Bloom, the former Red Sox executive who has been connected to the Cardinals in recent days. Mozeliak could not offer much of an update on Molina, although he confirmed that the two sides remain engaged in conversations about the nine-time Gold Glove winner’s role next season. He is “hopeful” Molina will join the organization in some capacity.

As for Bloom, Mozeliak mostly avoided the question, although he did reveal that he has had “some discussions” with individuals from “outside the organization” about potentially coming on as an advisor to the front office. The long-time Cardinals executive explained that he wants to have “someone from the outside look at the inside.” Mozeliak has been the team’s chief baseball decision-maker since 2007, so it certainly makes sense that he’s seeking a fresh perspective from someone new to the organization.

Super Two Status Set At 2.118 Years Of Service

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This offseason’s cutoff for Super Two arbitration eligibility has been set at two years and 118 days of service time, as Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported on Friday. That is down from last winter’s cutoff, which was two years and 128 days.

Most players who aren’t on a guaranteed contract and have between three and six years of MLB service qualify for arbitration. The top 22% of players in service time with between two and three years also qualify one offseason early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Here are the thresholds from prior offseasons:

  • 2022: 2.128
  • 2021: 2.116
  • 2020: 2.125
  • 2019: 2.115
  • 2018: 2.134
  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

That’s generally not the most consequential cutoff for fans but can be quite meaningful for players. The most straightforward benefit is that early arbitration gives the player a raise over the approximate league minimum salary he’d otherwise have made. It also sets a higher baseline for arbitration raises, offering greater benefits over future seasons in a process designed to escalate salaries year over year.

As Blum points out, this year’s lower cutoff was beneficial for a few players. Marlins outfielder Jesús Sánchez and Yankees reliever Albert Abreu are the last qualifiers with matching service times at the 2.118 stopping point. Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo is narrowly above the mark at 2.119 years. While Abreu and Baddoo are fringe roster players who could ostensibly be non-tendered, Sánchez should comfortably hold a spot in Miami. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $2MM salary. Blum adds that Dean Kremer, Alex Lange and William Contreras were among the notable players who landed just short of qualification.

24 players qualified for Super Two overall. Teams have until November 17 to determine whether to tender contracts to members of their arbitration class.

White Sox To Add Grady Sizemore To Coaching Staff

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Grady Sizemore will join the White Sox next season as a part of manager Pedro Grifol’s coaching staff, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The two-time Gold Glove winner will take on a dual role as outfield and baserunning coach. Chicago did not have a dedicated coach for either job last season, so Sizemore isn’t necessarily replacing anyone currently on staff. However, Levine notes that the White Sox will not announce their full coaching staff for 2024 until later this week.

The All-Star center fielder was one of the brightest young stars in baseball during the mid-2000s, earning MVP votes in four straight seasons from age 22 to 25. In addition to his power and plate discipline, he was a gifted defender and a threat on the bases; during his brief peak, he was one of the most highly-regarded outfield gloves and baserunners in the game. Unfortunately, injuries began to take their toll in his age-26 campaign, and Sizemore was never the same. He played just 313 games from 2010-15, hitting for a .665 OPS and stealing just 13 bases in 21 attempts. Even his once-stellar glove became a liability, and he played his final game just two months after his 33rd birthday.

In 2017, Sizemore returned to baseball, joining Cleveland (his long-time team) as an advisor to the player development staff. However, his new job with the White Sox marks his official return to the dugout following the end of his playing career in 2015.

Tyler Gilbert, Austin Adams Elect Free Agency

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve outrighted pitchers Tyler Gilbert and Austin Adams off the 40-man roster. The moves were necessary to create space for the reinstatement of five players from the 60-day injured list. Arizona’s 40-man is at capacity with the offseason underway, while Gilbert and Adams have each chosen free agency.

Gilbert is best known for throwing a no-hitter in his first career start (fourth appearance overall) back in 2021. The former sixth-round draftee has pitched in each of the last three big league campaigns, totaling 91 2/3 innings. He owns a 4.32 ERA, including a 5.19 mark over 17 1/3 frames out of the bullpen this year. Gilbert struck out a career-high 26.4% of opponents while averaging a personal-best 92.5 MPH on his fastball. That wasn’t enough to hold his spot on Arizona’s roster but should aid him in landing a minor league opportunity elsewhere.

Adams, 32, has 132 MLB games between four clubs. He inked a minor league contract with Arizona last offseason and reached the majors in May. The right-hander came out of the bullpen on 24 occasions for Torey Lovullo. He allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 17 1/3 innings, walking eight and hitting five batters. Adams punched out 22 behind a decent 12.1% swinging strike rate. While the slider specialist has always flashed the ability to miss bats, below-average control has led to plenty of walks and a staggering number of hits batsmen (including an MLB-leading 24 in just 52 2/3 innings two seasons ago).

The veteran hurler’s time in the desert ended on a sour note. Adams broke his right ankle when he was hit by a Joc Pederson comebacker in early August. That ended his season and made it a virtual lock Arizona would cut him loose rather than retain him on a projected $1.1MM arbitration salary.

Latest On Angels’ Managerial Search

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Three teams landed new managers on Monday, but there’s still plenty more to be done on that front around baseball. The Angels continue to search for a new dugout leader after declining an option on Phil Nevin at the start of the offseason.

It seems that search could be nearing its conclusion. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Halos could finalize a new hire by the end of the week. Jon Heyman of the New York Post listed a handful of candidates for the position (on X): Buck Showalter, Ron Washington, Gary DiSarcina, Benji Gil and Ray Montgomery. That isn’t necessarily an exhaustive list, as Heyman leaves open the possibility for another candidate to emerge.

Whether all five of those people have already interviewed with Halos brass is unclear. Showalter has been perhaps the most frequently mentioned candidate for the job. Gil and Montgomery make for natural candidates since they’re already on staff — the former as infield coach, the latter as bench coach.

DiSarcina also has myriad ties to the organization. He played for the Halos for the entirety of his 12-year playing career, earning an All-Star selection in 1995. He spent time in the front office at the beginning of the 2010s and logged three seasons on Mike Scioscia’s coaching staff. DiSarcina spent the last two seasons on Dave Martinez’s staff in Washington as third base coach. The Nationals announced last month that he would not return.

Ron Washington has spent seven seasons with the Braves as third base coach. The former Ranger skipper has come up in various managerial searches in recent years but hasn’t gotten a job since resigning from Texas at the end of the 2014 season. Washington led Texas to consecutive pennants in 2010-11 amidst a nearly eight-year run in Arlington.

Recent reports have named former Angels players Darin Erstad and Torii Hunter as potential options. Heyman confirms the Angels have spoken with Hunter but casts doubt on the fit, noting that owner Arte Moreno appears to prefer someone with prior MLB managerial experience. That could give the upper hand to Showalter or Washington, although it’s tough to pinpoint a specific favorite.

Padres Considering David Ross For Managerial Opening

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With the shocking news that long-time Brewers manager Craig Counsell signed a five-year, $40MM contract with the Cubs, a new managerial free agent entered the fray: David Ross. The freshly fired former Cubs manager should be an intriguing candidate for those teams still in need of a skipper, and indeed, at least one club is already interested. Per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Padres are “considering adding Ross to their candidate pool” for the position left vacant by Bob Melvin, who recently traveled north for a job with the Giants.

Before the game of managerial musical chairs began on Monday, the Padres and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller had reportedly narrowed down their search to four finalists: senior advisor to player development and major leagues Mike Shildt, bench coach and offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty, Angels infield coach Benji Gil, and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza. According to Acee, the team wasn’t planning to interview any further candidates; their next manager would be one of Shildt, Flaherty, Gil, or Mendoza.

However, with Ross now available, along with the news that the Mets have hired Mendoza to be their next manager, the Padres could be inclined to reconsider their options. After all, Preller has a well-documented history of changing his mind. Acee mentions several surprise hires the executive made during his tenure with the Padres, including former managers Andy Green and Jayce Tingler.

Of Shildt, Flaherty, and Gil, only Shildt has genuine managerial experience; he took over from Mike Matheny as the Cardinals manager in 2018, steering the team for the next four years. St Louis had a winning record in all four of his seasons at the helm, making the playoffs in the final three. Shildt was fired due to “philosophical differences” with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, but he seems to be on the same page with the front office in San Diego. He has spent the past two years working in the organization, and evidently, they are happy with the work he has done. 

Still, if the Padres are looking for a seasoned manager to replace Melvin, one of the most experienced skippers in the game, Ross presents an intriguing alternative. He has spent the past four years with the Cubs, leading the team through a mini-rebuild and out the other side. By all indications, the Cubs were largely happy with his performance. At his end-of-season presser, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer praised his then-manager for the clubhouse culture he fostered. Indeed, if it weren’t for Counsell hitting the open market, the Cubs would almost certainly have stuck with Ross in 2024.

Drew Smyly Exercised Player Option

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Left-hander Drew Smyly exercised his player option to return to the Cubs, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He’ll make an $8.5MM salary next season and is guaranteed a $2.5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2025.

There wasn’t much suspense with the decision. Smyly wasn’t going to beat $11MM in guarantees on the open market. The veteran southpaw had a tough 2023 campaign, allowing five earned runs per nine across 142 1/3 innings. The Cubs moved him to the bullpen in mid-August as his struggles mounted. Smyly fared well in relief, working to a 2.51 ERA through 28 2/3 innings.

That’s perhaps the ideal role for him to assume in 2024. The Cubs have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon locked into three rotation spots. They’re likely to add at least one arm this winter to replace Marcus Stroman, who opted out of his contract. Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski headline the remaining options for back-end roles.

With Smyly officially back in the fold, Roster Resource projects the Cubs’ 2024 player payroll around $178MM. They’re at roughly $186MM in luxury tax obligations, around $50MM shy of the threshold. Chicago opened the ’23 campaign with a payroll around $184MM.

Guardians Designate Cam Gallagher For Assignment

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The Guardians announced that right-hander Tanner Bibee was activated from the 60-day injured list, a procedural move since there’s no IL from today until Spring Training. To open a 40-man spot for him, catcher Cam Gallagher was designated for assignment.

Gallagher looked like a non-tender candidate entering the offseason. After signing last offseason, the right-handed hitter ran a .126/.154/.168 line across 149 plate appearances as a backup catcher. Even with a modest projected arbitration salary of $1.3MM, the complete lack of offense made it difficult for Cleveland to keep him on the MLB roster.

It became clear they’d move on once they claimed Christian Bethancourt from the Rays this afternoon. The Guards will now have a week to trade Gallagher or put him on waivers. Assuming he goes unclaimed, he’ll become a free agent.

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