Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw
February 12: Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the specifics on Kershaw’s performance bonuses and escalators. The future Hall of Famer would earn a $1MM bonus for his sixth start next season, $1.5MM for each of his next three starts, and $2MM if he reaches 10 starts. A relief appearance in which he accrues at least nine outs also qualifies, protecting Kershaw in the event he follows an opener.
The $5MM base value of his 2025 player option would escalate based on his ’24 workload by the following amounts:
- $2MM for six starts
- $3MM apiece for seven through nine starts
- $4MM for 10 starts
If he exercises the option, the deal includes additional bonuses for 2025 depending on the number of starts he makes in each of the next two years.
February 9: Clayton Kershaw is heading back to the Dodgers. The team announced Friday that the left-hander has re-signed on a two-year guarantee — the second season of which is a player option. Kershaw, a client of Excel Sports Management, is recovering from November shoulder surgery and isn’t expected to pitch until the second half of the season, at the earliest. He’s reportedly guaranteed $10MM on the pact: $5MM in each season of the deal.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Kershaw’s 2024 incentives are contingent on him making six to ten starts this season. Any increases to this year’s base salary will also be reflected in the value of his player option. Sherman further adds that between those escalators and incentives specific to the 2025 season, Kershaw could earn as much as $25MM in year two of the contract. That’d give him a total earning power of $37.5MM over the two years of the contract.
Kershaw can boost that 2024 salary to $12.5MM based on the number of games he starts this season. The number of games he starts can also boost the base value of his 2025 player option. Right-hander Tony Gonsolin was moved to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot for Kershaw. If and when the Dodgers need another 40-man spot, Kershaw himself can be transferred to the 60-day IL.
Assuming he’s able to suit up at some point in the second half, the 2024 season will be Kershaw’s 17th pitching for the Dodgers, who selected him with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 draft. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, who hasn’t reached 30 starts in a season since 2015, but the quality of his results remains largely constant. From 2009-15, Kershaw averaged 32 starts per year, won four straight ERA titles and took home three Cy Young Awards. Since 2016, he’s averaged just 24 starts per 162-game season but maintained a brilliant 2.55 ERA — including sub-2.50 marks in three of the past four seasons.
Kershaw clearly wasn’t pitching at 100% for much of the 2023 season. A shoulder strain landed Kershaw on the injured list in July, and manager Dave Roberts candidly acknowledged in September that he was pitching at less than full strength. Los Angeles limited Kershaw to five innings per start for all but one start in his return from the injured list (a 5 1/3-inning outing in his final appearance of the season). Along the way, Kershaw’s average fastball dipped to career-low levels; he averaged just 89.4 mph on his fastball in his return — including just an 88.7 mph average through his final four starts.
Diminished velocity notwithstanding, Kershaw remained quite effective. In eight post-IL starts he turned in a pristine 2.23 ERA. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate were both a ways from his pre-injury levels (27.7%, 6.3%), but Kershaw looked to making the most of what he had to offer on any given day. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of those final eight appearances and in fact held opponents to one or zero runs in six of them. The D-backs ambushed him for six runs in the first inning of his lone NLDS start, however, ending his season on a low point.
It’s not yet clear when Kershaw might be able to rejoin the Dodgers’ staff, though they’ll presumably provide an update when announcing his deal and discussing it with the media. A returning Kershaw in the second half will provide some high-end insurance for a Dodgers rotation that is teeming with uncertainty. Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be adjusting to a new culture and a new league in his debut campaign this year. Right-hander Walker Buehler is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Southpaw James Paxton is a perennial injury risk. Young righties Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone and Kyle Hurt haven’t pitched full big league seasons.
As already noted, Kershaw won’t be the only potential second-half addition for the Dodgers. The aforementioned May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor tendon repair in early July but could potentially be back for the stretch run. Gonsolin, who underwent Tommy John surgery in late August, feels like a longer shot to make it back but could potentially do so in a bullpen capacity if his rehab plays out in a best-case scenario.
The Dodgers are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight season and are already well into the final tier of luxury tax penalization. As such, any dollars committed to Kershaw will be taxed at a 110% rate. That apparently won’t be a deterrent as they welcome the future Hall of Famer back for a 17th season.
In 2712 2/3 innings though his big league career, Kershaw owns a 210-92 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate. He’s a ten-time All-Star with five NL ERA titles, three Cy Young Awards and a National League MVP Award under his belt.
Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Dodgers and Kershaw had reached an agreement. The Athletic’s Andy McCullough reported the presence of a 2025 player option. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the terms of the deal.
Nationals Sign Jesse Winker To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have signed Jesse Winker to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post. Winker is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Winker, 30, is not too far removed from being one of the better hitters in the league but he’s fallen on hard times recently as injuries have seemingly held him back. With the Reds from 2017 to 2021, he walked in 12% of his plate appearances while only going down on strikes 16.5% of the time. His .288/.385/.504 slash line in that time translates to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than league average in that five-year stretch. Among players with at least 1500 plate appearances over those years, only 24 had a higher wRC+.
The left-handed hitter has fallen on harder times over the past couple seasons. Cincinnati traded Winker to the Mariners going into 2022. He slumped to a .219/.344/.344 line over 547 plate appearances. Seattle flipped him to Milwaukee last winter in a challenge trade that brought in Kolten Wong. The deal didn’t work for either team. Wong struggled badly enough that Seattle released him midseason.
Winker held his spot on the Milwaukee roster all year but didn’t fare much better. He ran a career-worst .199/.320/.247 line with only one home run in 197 plate appearances. He didn’t appear in the majors again after being placed on the injured list with back spasms in late July.
Washington doesn’t have a clear option at designated hitter, making this a decent landing spot for Winker on a rebound deal. The Nats signed Joey Gallo to join Lane Thomas in the corner outfield. Stone Garrett looks like a solid right-handed complementary bat, while Winker could push for a role against righty pitching.
Giants, Amir Garrett Agree To Minor League Deal
The Giants and left-hander Amir Garrett are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client will also receive an invite to Spring Training and would make a salary of $1.35MM if in the majors.
Garrett, 32 in May, has had some good years in the big leagues but his 2023 was a struggle. He started the year with the Royals and made 27 appearances for that club. His 3.33 earned run average in that time looks good at first blush, but the underlying numbers were less impressive. He struck out 25% of batters but also gave out free passes at a massive 17.9% clip. His 85.2% strand rate helped him keep some runs off the board but his 5.56 FIP and 5.10 SIERA suggested regression was due.
The Royals didn’t want that luck to run out on their watch so they released Garrett in July. He landed a minor league deal with the Guardians and made five appearances for their Triple-A club but walked four of the 21 batters he faced before getting released from that deal as well.
The control is clearly a problem but it’s nothing new, with Garrett having walked 13.2% of the batters he’s faced in his career overall. He’s still managed to be effectively wild at times, though, having racked up 67 holds dating back to his 2017 debut. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate and has also kept 44.8% of batted balls in the ground in his career. He averages in the mid-90s with his fastball and sinker but throws his slider around half the time.
He was at his best with the Reds from 2018 to 2020, posting a 3.60 ERA over 156 appearances. He struck out 30.2% of opponents in that time while keeping his walks down to 11.6%, still high but not disastrously so. He also was working in fairly high-leverage spots, earning 49 of his holds in that time. But his results have backed up in the three most recent seasons, with the control gradually getting worse.
It’s possible that Garrett has been victimized by the three-batter minimum, which was first implemented in 2020. He has held lefties to a line of .204/.327/.349 in his career whereas righties have slashed .248/.348/.465 against him.
The Giants have one established lefty in the pen in Taylor Rogers but there’s a path open for a second. Ethan Small has just four big league games of experience while Erik Miller has none. The only other lefties on the 40-man roster are Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison, who are both starters and Ray won’t even be healthy to start the season. If Garrett looks good in camp or perhaps during the minor league seasons, the Giants could find a way to use him.
Which Teams Would Benefit Most From Matt Chapman?
Spring Training is underway for a few teams, yet a handful of free agency’s top players remain unsigned. Matt Chapman has been the clear #1 option for clubs looking to address third base all winter.
Chapman started the 2023 campaign on a blistering offensive pace that once looked as if it could vault him towards the $200MM mark. He tailed off as the calendar flipped to May, however, most often finding himself in the bottom third of the Toronto batting order by year’s end. A finger injury may have sapped some of his power, but the bigger problem is that Chapman’s swing-and-miss issues returned in full force. While he carried a league average 22.8% strikeout rate through the end of April, he fanned at a 29.8% clip from May 1 on. The end result was a characteristic Chapman season: a .240/.330/.424 batting line with a strong 10.7% walk rate but a strikeout percentage north of 28%.
Five years removed from a career-best campaign in which he hit .249/.342/.506 with 36 homers, it’s difficult to sell Chapman as a significant upside play at the dish. He’s a slightly better than average hitter whose value is heavily tied into his glove. A four-time Gold Glove winner, he rated as 12 runs better than an third baseman by DRS last season. Statcast graded him three runs above par. By both measures, he has been an a solid to elite defender in every year of his career.
A long-term bet on a player who soon turns 31 and derives much of his value from his defense has probably scared off a few teams, particularly since Chapman would require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. Yet there’s little doubt he’d be an upgrade in the next couple years over the third base situations that at least half of teams are set to deploy. Which ones have the spottiest in-house options to handle the hot corner, and could therefore benefit most from Chapman’s services?
Clear Need
- Angels
Anthony Rendon hasn’t made 60 starts at third base in a season since 2019. Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo can see some time at the hot corner but are better served as bat-first options rotating throughout the infield. This would be a clear weakness if the Angels were one piece away from contention.
Unfortunately for the Halos, they have a handful of potentially bigger concerns. They’re still looking for rotation help. The overall depth on both the position player and pitching sides is lacking. They’re on the hook for $38MM to Rendon for another three seasons. Ownership and the front office probably don’t want to compound the issue with another significant free agent splash at third base.
- Blue Jays
Chapman’s old team hasn’t done much to replace him. They added Justin Turner on a one-year free agent deal. He can handle a few starts at third base but is more of a part-time option heading into his age-39 season. Turner only started seven games at the hot corner with the Red Sox a year ago. While that’s primarily on account of Rafael Devers’ presence, it also points to the risk the team would face in banking on him for 100+ starts on the infield dirt.
Assuming Turner plays mostly designated hitter, the Jays have a collection of infielders (Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez) to handle second and third base. Schneider has 35 games of MLB experience. Espinal and Biggio once looked like viable regulars but have tailed off in recent years. Clement is a utility player.
- Cubs
The Cubs might have the clearest need for third base help of any expected contender. Nick Madrigal, the top in-house option, hit .263/.311/.352 a year ago. There was also some concern about whether his arm plays well on the left side of the infield, although Madrigal posted excellent defensive grades in his first 560 1/3 innings at third base. There’s still a legitimate question as to whether the former #4 overall pick makes enough an offensive impact to start on a win-now team.
Chicago’s other short-term possibilities also have notable drawbacks. Patrick Wisdom has power but strikes out nearly as often as any regular in MLB. He’s a below-average defender who’s probably better served as a bench bat. Christopher Morel has never found a defensive home and only started four games at third base last year. Miles Mastrobuoni is coming off a .241/.308/.301 showing. It’s too early to bank on last year’s first-round draftee, Matt Shaw, making an MLB impact in 2024.
Viable Starter, Could Upgrade
- Giants: San Francisco doesn’t truly need a third baseman. J.D. Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers a year ago. That was Davis’ worst full offensive season but still not far off what Chapman has provided in recent years. At the plate, they’re fairly comparable. Chapman has a marked edge over Davis with the glove, although Statcast felt the Giants’ incumbent third baseman took a step forward in that regard a season ago. While it’s fair to question whether Chapman is a marked enough improvement for San Francisco to make a run, they’ve been linked throughout the offseason. New skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman for years across the Bay Area. The Giants could pursue him with an eye towards flipping Davis for help in another area of the roster.
- Mariners: Seattle is going into 2024 with a projected platoon at third base. They shipped off Eugenio Suárez and acquired Luis Urías. The righty-swinging Urías can pair with left-handed hitting Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Chapman would be a fairly straightforward upgrade, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has expressed a desire to skew away from hitters with significant swing-and-miss rates (although their actual offseason on that front has been more mixed). More meaningfully, the M’s might just be up against ownership’s spending limit.
- Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns said at the Winter Meetings that the Mets were happy with their internal options at third base. Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball a few days later, but New York still has 24-year-old Brett Baty on hand. Baty had a dismal ’23 campaign, hitting .212/.275/.323 in 389 plate appearances. If the Mets were all-in on the upcoming season, Chapman would make a lot of sense. The organizational goal is instead to hang on the fringe of contention while giving opportunities to young players to see what they have for 2025. If Chapman’s asking price craters and he’s open to a short-term deal with an opt-out, perhaps the Mets could jump in. Otherwise, it seems the job will go to Baty.
- Phillies: Philadelphia seems content with Alec Bohm. He’s a subpar defender who has done the vast majority of his offensive damage against left-handed pitching in his career. There’s an argument the Phillies should make a run at Chapman and push Bohm to the bench, but the team doesn’t seem to consider third base a pressing issue. Bohm is a former #3 overall pick who had a decent .274/.327/.437 slash a year ago, so the Phils could hope there’s a little untapped potential at the dish.
- Yankees: The Yankees are planning to turn third base back to DJ LeMahieu. The 35-year-old was a league average hitter a season ago, running a .243/.327/.390 line with 15 homers. The longtime second baseman receives slightly above-average marks for his glovework at third base. LeMahieu hasn’t maintained the star-level production he showed from 2019-20, yet he’s still a solid everyday player. He had a strong finish to 2023, hitting .273/.377/.432 with a robust 14% walk rate after the All-Star Break. Chapman would likely be an upgrade, but it’s not a massive boost on what LeMahieu has provided. The Yankees have tried to move away from right-handed hitters with strikeout issues after overloading their lineup with that type of player in previous years.
Competitive Timeline Question
- Nationals
- Tigers
- White Sox
The Nationals took a flier on former top prospect Nick Senzel to start at third base. Senzel hasn’t contributed much at the MLB level, so this is still a clear area of weakness. Washington hasn’t fully pivoted from rebuilding to making a competitive push, though, meaning it’s probably a year or two early to pursue a player like Chapman. Chicago might be going in the opposite direction, as they may soon find themselves at the beginning of a rebuild. Yoán Moncada is under guaranteed contract for one more year with a club option for 2025. The Sox will likely give him a rebound opportunity and hope to offload some of the money he’s owed at the trade deadline.
Detroit admittedly didn’t fit particularly well within any of these five categories. They’re at the beginning of what they hope to be their contention window. The Tigers don’t have a clear starting third baseman right now but are hopeful that top prospect Jace Jung could push for the job by next season. Manager A.J. Hinch has suggested they’re comfortable rotating the likes of Andy Ibáñez, Matt Vierling and Zach McKinstry through the position as a stopgap platoon.
Payroll Issues
- Athletics
- Brewers
- Marlins
- Royals
None of these low-payroll franchises are going to spend the kind of money it’d take to land Chapman. Each of Milwaukee (Joey Ortiz), Miami (Jake Burger) and Kansas City (Maikel García) could turn the position to a controllable player they hope will be part of the long-term core.
Already Set At Third Base
- Astros
- Braves
- Cardinals
- Diamondbacks
- Dodgers
- Guardians
- Orioles
- Padres
- Pirates
- Rangers
- Rays
- Red Sox
- Reds
- Rockies
- Twins
These 15 teams all have either a clearly above-average starting third baseman (e.g. José Ramírez, Austin Riley), have addressed the position already this winter (Eugenio Suárez), or possess enough infield talent that can capably cover the position. In either case, it’s hard to envision any of these clubs considering Chapman a notable upgrade on their in-house options to bring him in. That’s true regardless of whether he pivots to a short-term deal.
Marlins Hire Sara Goodrum, Brandon Mann
The Marlins announced that they have hired Sara Goodrum as director of special projects. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed the news prior to the official announcement. They also announced that former big leaguer Brandon Mann has been brought aboard as a pitching strategist and announced their previously-reported hiring of Sam Mondry-Cohen as vice-president of player personnel. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported the hiring of Mann last month.
Goodrum has been working for the Astros for the past two years. She was hired late in 2021 to be director of player development and served in that role until the organization parted ways with her in October. Prior to that, she worked as a minor league hitting coordinator with the Brewers.
Mann got a brief taste of major league action as a pitcher, getting into seven games for the 2018 Rangers. Since then, he’s worked as pitching coordinator for the Lotte Giants of the KBO and spent the past two years working with Driveline Baseball.
The Marlins have been busy reworking their baseball operations department this winter after general manager Kim Ng moved on. Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations and has subsequently added Gabe Kapler as assistant general manager and Rachel Balkovec as director of player development.
Mets Sign Ben Gamel To Minor League Deal
3:20pm: Gamel will make a salary of $1.2MM in the majors or $35K per month at Triple-A, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.
11:55am: The Mets have signed veteran outfielder Ben Gamel to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. The Wasserman client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee during spring training.
It’s the latest in a lengthy series of minor league deals and waiver claims of veteran depth options for the Mets this winter. The 31-year-old Gamel has appeared in eight big league seasons, spending the majority of his time with the Mariners and Pirates. He’s a career .252/.332/.384 hitter with strong plate discipline but minimal power. Gamel has walked in 10.1% of his career plate appearances, including an 11.8% clip since 2021 (838 trips to the plate). He’s never topped 11 homers in a season, however, and his career .131 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is well shy of average.
Defensively, Gamel has played all three outfield positions in the big leagues, but he’s best suited for left field work. Between the majors and minors, he’s played more than 2600 innings in center, but he’s only appeared at the position for one inning over the past two seasons. He’s also appeared sparingly at first base, giving him a bit of extra versatility.
There’s no immediate path to a roster spot for Gamel, as the Mets have the trio of Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader and Starling Marte slated to handle regular work, plus outfielders DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor on the 40-man roster. Gamel seems likely to join Trayce Thompson as a depth option in Triple-A Syracuse, where he’ll be the most experienced outfielder. That could make him the first man up in the event of an injury that creates a need for either an extra outfielder or a left-handed bat off the bench.
Getz: White Sox Expect Cease To Be Opening Day Starter
Trade chatter on White Sox ace Dylan Cease has died down over the past month amid reports that first-year general manager Chris Getz has set an extremely high asking price and has shown no willingness to back down, even as the season draws nearer. Getz himself threw more cold water on the possibility of trading Cease today, plainly telling the Sox beat: “I expect [Cease] to be our Opening Day starter” (X link via Chuck Garfien of NBC Sports Chicago).
Like the majority of baseball executives, Getz didn’t speak in absolutes. There’s always the chance of a late offer that’s simply too good to turn down — particularly if a contending team loses a starting pitcher to a long-term injury this spring and feels emboldened to make a trade that was previously deemed too costly.
That said, Getz also didn’t need to go out of his way to frame it as likely that Cease would be on the Opening Day roster, either. Choosing to voice that is a firmer stance than speaking in generalities about remaining open-minded and considering all avenues. That’s the route Getz took just one month ago, publicly stating that a Cease trade could potentially come in the offseason, at the deadline or even at an atypical time like May or June, if the right offer presented itself then.
Entering the offseason, Cease stood out as one of the likeliest trade candidates on the market. The White Sox fired longtime GM Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams last summer, promoting Getz from assistant GM. He began the offseason making clear that the Sox would be open for business, even going so far as to candidly state, “I don’t like our team.” The South Siders have indeed proven active, trading relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, acquiring young outfielder Dominic Fletcher and swinging a trade for veteran catcher Max Stassi.
Many of the Sox’ dealings have focused on improving the defense; Getz said in today’s media session that early talks with free agent pitchers this winter showed a reluctance to sign in Chicago because of the team’s poor glovework (X link via CHGO’s Vinnie Duber). Recognizing that limitation, Getz acquired Nicky Lopez and glove-first infield prospect Braden Shewmake (in the Bummer deal), signed Paul DeJong, and landed a pair of catchers with good defensive reputations (Stassi and free agent Martin Maldonado). Fletcher, acquired from the D-backs in exchange for pitching prospect Christian Mena, is regarded as a plus defender at all three outfield spots.
Amid all that roster shuffling, there was a general expectation that Cease would eventually be moved. That no longer seems nearly so certain. There’s clear risk in hanging onto the 28-year-old righty. A spring or early-season injury could prove catastrophic for the Sox, tanking the value of their clear best trade chip. At the same time, trading Cease this summer won’t necessarily reduce the asking price, particularly if teams simply weren’t putting forth compelling packages for him this winter.
Cease is coming off a pedestrian 4.58 ERA, but he’s only one season removed from a runner-up showing on the AL Cy Young ballot, when he pitched 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball. His strikeout rate and velocity both dipped a bit in ’23 from their ’22 levels, and he gave up more hard contact than usual. The extent to which those red flags combined to impact offers for him can’t be known, but if Cease can come out looking like the 2022 version of himself, it’s conceivable he could even command more near the deadline — particularly since the supply of starting pitching will be much smaller than in the offseason, when there’s a wide bank of free agents to consider.
Cease is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He and the White Sox agreed to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier this winter, avoiding an arb hearing in the process. The right-hander leads all of Major League Baseball with 109 starts dating back to the 2020 season. In that time, Cease sports a 3.58 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 36.5% ground-ball rate and 1.03 HR/9.
Pirates Sign Connor Sadzeck To Minor League Deal
The Pirates announced today that three right-handers have been added to their camp as non-roster invitees, indicating they have signed minor league deals with the club. Two of them, Wily Peralta and Brent Honeywell Jr., were previously reported. The third was for Connor Sadzeck, a client of Frontline.
Sadzeck, 32, spent the 2023 season in the Twins’ organization after signing a minor league deal with that club. He tossed 35 innings over 25 Triple-A appearances, allowing 5.40 earned runs per nine frames. His 24.6% strikeout rate was quite strong but his 15.2% walk rate was untenably high.
That has generally been the recipe with the righty, who features a four-seamer and sinker that each have mid-to-high 90s velocity, as well as a slider in the high 80s and the occasional changeup. But as is often the case for pitchers with that kind of power arsenal, control is an ongoing concern.
He has 36 innings of scattered major league experience, having pitched for the Rangers, Mariners and Brewers dating back to his 2018 debut. He has walked 16.4% of major league hitters he has faced, though the baseball gods have helped him keep them from scoring. He has a 2.75 ERA in that small sample of big league work, thanks in part to a .245 batting average on balls in play and 84.3% strand rate. His larger Triple-A résumé now consists of 166 2/3 innings over four separate campaigns. He has a ERA of 4.00 in that time, striking out 25.6% of batters faced but also giving free passes to 12.1% of them.
For the Pirates, there’s no risk in bringing him into camp to get a close-up look at the stuff, while seeing if he can better harness his arsenal throughout the year. All clubs need depth arms throughout the season and the Bucs may be likelier than some others to reach into their minor leagues. They have David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman set to be the high-leverage arms in their bullpen but things are a bit flimsy beyond that as Ryan Borucki is the only other reliever on the roster with more than two years of service time. Guys like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and José Hernández have some intriguing numbers but are still fairly light on experience.
To add some non-roster depth, the club has signed guys like Peralta, Honeywell and Sadzeck, as well as Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan. If Sadzeck is added to the roster at any point, he is out of options but has just over a year of service time.
Twins Still Exploring Starting Pitching Market
The Twins lost a trio of starters in free agency, as Sonny Gray signed with the Cardinals, Kenta Maeda signed with the division-rival Tigers, and Tyler Mahle signed with the World Series-champion Rangers. The acquisition of Anthony DeSclafani helps to replenish some depth, but they’re still poking around the market for further starting pitching help.
Both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (video link) have suggested recently that Minnesota could make some further additions before long. The Twins, who’ve scaled back payroll while spending much of the offseason facing questions about their television broadcast rights, aren’t likely to sign Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The Twins reportedly had interest in Michael Lorenzen prior to adding DeSclafani, and Morosi suggests that pitchers like Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard are in the general price range the Twins are actively considering.
As things stand, the Twins still have a solid group of starters, though the depth isn’t as strong heading into 2024 as it appeared to be in 2023. Pablo Lopez had the third-most strikeouts in all of baseball last season while finishing ninth innings pitched and logging a 3.66 ERA. He’ll lead the staff, followed by righties Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The former carried a sub-3.00 ERA with outstanding K/BB marks through his first 15 starts before fading down the stretch. He’ll look for a stronger finish to the 2024 season but has nonetheless cemented himself as a useful big league starter. The latter touts a 3.37 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in 200 1/3 frames dating back to 2022.
Beyond that trio, the Twins are hoping to get a full season’s worth of starts from righty Chris Paddack, who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and pitched well out of the bullpen. The former Padre allowed three runs in 8 2/3 innings between the regular season and postseason, turning in an electric 14-to-1 K/BB ratio in that time (41.8% strikeout rate, 2.9% walk rate). However, the 28-year-old has just 40 2/3 innings total since 2022 (minors and postseason included), and he’s only reached 100 innings in two MLB seasons. Counting on him for 30 starts seems wildly optimistic.
The veteran DeSclafani and 26-year-old right-hander Louie Varland will vie for the final starting job. DeSclafani, 34, has battled injuries over the past two seasons and pitched poorly when on the field, but he gave the Giants 31 starts of 3.17 ERA ball as recently as 2021. The Twins are only on the hook for $4MM of this season’s $12MM salary, with the Giants paying $6MM and the Mariners kicking in $2MM as part of the Jorge Polanco trade with the Mariners that also brought reliever Justin Topa and top prospect Gabriel Gonzalez to Minnesota. Varland has pitched 94 innings of 4.40 ERA ball in the big leagues. He was immensely homer-prone in 2023 (2.12 HR/9), but he boasts strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, leading metrics like SIERA and xFIP (which normalize home-run rate) to peg his 2023 performance at solid marks of 3.77 and 3.81.
It’s a fine top six, but the departure of Maeda and particularly Gray, who finished second in AL Cy Young voting this past season, still loom large. The Twins will surely be banking on more consistency from Ryan and more innings from Paddack, but there’s no getting around the fact that the group looks weaker than it did in 2023 — particularly late in the season, when Gray and Maeda were both pitching quite well.
Barring some type of surprising trade, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will find a way to replace the quality of Gray’s innings. Free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there, but the Twins have been cutting payroll due to their murky television situation. Minnesota formally announced a one-year extension of their deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports today, though presumably at a lesser rate than they received in 2023. The outlook beyond that point remains unclear, too. A major splash for Snell or Montgomery would come as a shock.
Deepening the group by bringing in someone like Lorenzen probably wouldn’t give the Twins the same type of Game 1 or 2 playoff starter they had in Gray, but springing for quantity has some merit as well. Even adding 150 or so league-average innings would help to safeguard against injury concerns among the current group (Paddack and DeSclafani, most notably), push DeSclafani to a long-relief role to open the season and push Varland to Triple-A, where he could work out of the rotation and be summoned as injuries dictate. Roster Resource currently projects a $123.5MM payroll for the Twins — more than $30MM shy of last year’s season-end mark but in the general $125-140MM vicinity they were reportedly targeting for the upcoming season.
Red Sox Sign Lucas Luetge To Minor League Deal
February 12: Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relays that the minor league deal is now official and that Luetge will make a $1MM salary if he cracks the roster.
February 10: The Red Sox and left-hander Lucas Luetge are in agreement on a deal, according to a post on Luetge’s own Instagram page. Luetge didn’t specify the terms of the arrangement, though it’s likely a minor league pact that includes an invite to big league Spring Training.
Luetge, 37 next month, made his MLB debut back in 2012 as a member of the Mariners. The southpaw pitched decently during his rookie season, posting a roughly-league average 3.98 ERA and 4.03 FIP while striking out 21.3% of batters faced and generating grounders at a 46.9% clip. Solid as those peripheral numbers were, Luetge’s overall performance was dragged down by control issues as he walked an elevated 13.5% of batters faced during his first season in the majors.
The left-hander spent the next three seasons shuttling between Triple-A and the majors for the Mariners, pitching to a 4.66 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 48 major league appearances while managing a slightly stronger 4.21 ERA across 94 appearances in the minors before he was outrighted to the minors in late 2015. He elected free agency shortly thereafter but would not return to the majors until 2021, when he joined the Yankees as a member of their bullpen.
Luetge enjoyed the best seasons of his career in the Bronx as he pitched to a 2.71 ERA and 2.92 FIP across 129 2/3 innings of work from during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. He struck out 25% of batters faced across those two seasons while walking just 5.8%, numbers impressive enough to earn him plenty of high-leverage opportunities with the club. Luetge’s tenure in New York came to a surprising end during the 2022-23 offseason when the Yankees designated him for assignment to make room for Tommy Kahnle on the 40-man roster.
He was traded to the Braves shortly thereafter and opened the 2023 campaign in their bullpen, though he didn’t last long on the club’s roster after allowing eleven runs in 9 2/3 innings of work during his first nine outings with the club. He was outrighted to Triple-A and remained with the Braves for the rest of the season. He returned to the big league club after the All Star break and pitched four scoreless innings across three appearances down the stretch, though that wasn’t enough for the club to retain him on the 40-man roster headed into the offseason. Luetge was outrighted off the club’s roster once again in late September and elected free agency the next month.
Now, Luetge returns to the AL East in search of his next big league role. The Red Sox only have one left-handed relief option currently expected to make their major league bullpen in Brennan Bernardino. Luetge figures to join fellow non-roster southpaws Jorge Benitez and Cam Booser in the club’s bullpen competition this spring alongside Bernardino and Joe Jacques, both of whom are already on the club’s 40-man roster. If Luetge can return to the form he flashed during his time in New York, it would be a huge boon for a Boston club that posted a 4.18 ERA out of the bullpen last year, a figure that ranked just 16th in the majors.