Atkins: Jays Would Need To Subtract To Accommodate Significant Acquisition
As the Blue Jays opened Spring Training, general manager Ross Atkins met with reporters yesterday. The GM implied the bulk of the club’s offseason activity was complete, minimizing the chance of making an impactful free agent strike without offloading someone from the roster.
“At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction,” Atkins said (link via Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). “We feel good about the team that we have. Feel good about the work that’s been done over the last five offseasons, the last four trade deadlines and now coming into another trade deadline, we’ll have another opportunity, I hope, that we’re in a strong position to add to that team (and) I know that we will.”
It wasn’t quite as firm a declaration that the team was finished with notable acquisitions as executives with other clubs (i.e. Nationals, Rangers) have made. Atkins noted the Jays remain in contact with player representatives as a large number of free agents are still unsigned. It nevertheless downplays the chance of Toronto jumping in on anything more than depth additions.
That’s an apparent reflection of a franchise-high payroll. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending in the $236MM range. Their competitive balance tax figure sits around $249MM, into the first tier of luxury tax penalization. Toronto paid the tax a year ago, so they’re subject to heightened penalties. They’re taxed at a 30% rate on spending up to $257MM and a 42% rate on the next $20MM, with higher penalties in the unlikely event they push past the $277MM mark.
On the one hand, the Jays have pushed their Opening Day spending past last year’s approximate $210MM figure. Team president Mark Shapiro suggested at the beginning of the offseason they anticipated keeping payroll steady. They have instead increased spending. Yet the Jays have also come up empty on their most significant free agent swings. They’d been linked to high-profile targets from Shohei Ohtani to Jorge Soler.
Their largest guarantee was a five-year, $32MM pact for Cuban swingman Yariel Rodríguez. They signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM deal and inked one-year pacts with Justin Turner ($13MM) and Kevin Kiermaier ($10.5MM).
While Atkins didn’t address any specific free agents — team personnel are prohibited from declaring themselves out of the market on individual players — his comments seem most notable with regards to Matt Chapman. The Jays appeared an on-paper fit to bring Chapman back. Their closest direct replacement at third base is Kiner-Falefa. Coming off a .242/.306/.340 platform showing that is broadly in line with his career numbers, Kiner-Falefa is better suited as a utility player for a team with playoff aspirations.
Toronto also allowed Whit Merrifield to hit free agency. He’s expected to make his signing decision within the coming days. While a return to Toronto isn’t out of the question, the Jays look content to allow a handful of multi-positional types to battle for playing time at second and third base.
Beyond Kiner-Falefa, the Jays have Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez on the 40-man roster. None of Martinez, Jimenez or Barger has played in the majors. All three have reached Triple-A, although Jimenez struggled in a brief look there last year. They’re longer shots to make the Opening Day roster. Veteran Eduardo Escobar will also be in camp after agreeing to a minor league contract last night.
Biggio, Espinal and Schneider are virtual locks to make the team. They’ve all shown flashes in their careers but none is a clear everyday player. Biggio had a league average .235/.340/.370 line over 339 plate appearances a season ago. After posting solid offensive numbers in his first two seasons, he has been an average or slightly worse hitter three years running.
Espinal was a surprising All-Star selection amidst an impressive 2022 campaign. His production dropped precipitously last year, as he hit .248/.310/.335 over 254 plate appearances. Schneider had a scorching start to his MLB career after being called up last August. He raked at a .426/.526/.894 clip over his first few weeks before slumping to a .174/.321/.406 line while striking out a third of the time in September. It was still an extremely impressive debut showing in aggregate, yet he’ll have to make his own adjustments as he faces MLB pitching over a full season for the first time. Clement, meanwhile, has been a utility player throughout his career. He’s out of options, so he’d have to secure a spot on the Opening Day bench or be placed on waivers.
Manager John Schneider told reporters yesterday that Biggio is a bit delayed after battling tendinitis in his left shoulder this offseason (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). He is not yet facing live pitching. Assuming he’s ready by Opening Day, he’s likely to compete with Kiner-Falefa and Espinal at third base. Davis Schneider has split his time in the minors fairly evenly between second and third. John Schneider said that Davis Schneider is focused on second base and left field as his main positions for the upcoming season (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet).
Angels, Ehire Adrianza Agree To Minor League Deal
The Angels have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran infielder Ehire Adrianza, manager Ron Washington announced to beat writers in camp this morning (X link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). It’s a minor league deal, although Adrianza hasn’t completed his physical, so the Warner Sports Management client’s deal is not official just yet.
The 34-year-old Adrianza knows Washington well, having spent the majority of the past three seasons in the Braves organization where Washington was coaching before being hired back to a manager’s post in Anaheim this offseason. He’ll bring some versatility to camp and compete for a spot on the Halos’ bench.
Adrianza has appeared in the majors in each of the past 11 seasons, typically filling a bench role. He’s suited up for the Giants, Twins and Nats in addition to the Braves and sports a career .238/.308/.352 batting line in 1550 trips to the plate. He appeared in only five big league games and another 15 Triple-A contests with Atlanta last season due to an elbow injury that sent him to the 60-day IL for the bulk of the 2023 campaign.
Though his numbers from 2022-23 are unsightly (.159/.248/.187 in 121 plate appearances), Adrianza was an important utility piece for the Braves as recently as 2021, when he hit .247/.327/.401 and played six positions during Atlanta’s World Series-winning season. He’s played every position other than catcher in the big leagues — including three innings of mop-up work on the mound. At this stage of his career, Adrianza isn’t considered the plus infield defender he was in his 20s, but he’s unlikely to be a liability in the infield, either.
The Angels’ bench right now will include backup catcher Matt Thaiss and outfielder Aaron Hicks, who signed a big league deal earlier this offseason. The other two spots are more open for the taking. Former top prospect Jo Adell is out of minor league options and will need to make the club or else be traded or placed on waivers. Infielder Michael Stefanic could make the club as a bat-first utility option, but he does have a minor league option remaining. Adrianza will join fellow non-roster veterans Hunter Dozier, Miguel Sano and Richie Martin (among others) in vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster.
Brian Cashman Discusses Possible Extensions, Current Roster
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke with the media this week and addressed various topics. Notably, he downplayed the possibility of an extension for either outfielder Juan Soto or infielder Gleyber Torres, both of whom are impending free agents. He also indicated it’s still possible for roster additions, with pitching a likely target area.
“The odds are this is a one-year situation,” Cashman said about Soto, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “I don’t see too many things stopping him from reaching free agency.” That assessment of the situation tracks with publicly-available information, as well as logic. Soto is just 25 years old but already has six years of elite production in the major leagues. Most free agents don’t reach free agency until they are around 30 years old but Soto is on track to get there around his 26th birthday, which will be at the end of October.
Despite his youth, he’s already hit 160 home runs in 779 career games, while also drawing walks more often than he strikes out. He’s hit .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154 and has never posted a wRC+ lower than 143 in any individual season. That combination of youth and talent has long made it seem as though a trip to free agency would be fairly inevitable. While with the Nationals in 2022, Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer, which is what led to him being dealt to the Padres.
The Yankees sent five players to the Padres this winter to get Soto and Trent Grisham, likely knowing full well that it was probably going to be a one-year proposition, with Cashman’s comments today reflecting that. Now that Soto has moved closer to free agency, his earning power has only increased since he turned down that $440MM offer, making the odds of keeping him from the open market even lower. The Yanks will have a chance to bring him back via free agency, but they will have to compete with the other clubs around the league in what is sure to be a hotly contested market.
As for Torres, it was reported back in November that the club had not engaged Torres on any extension talks. The infielder even replied “I wish” when asked about the possibility. Cashman confirmed to Greg Joyce of The New York Post this week that the club has not had any extension talks with him. Torres has been a solid player for the Yanks, hitting 123 home runs in his 734 contests thus far. His .267/.334/.454 batting line translates to a 116 wRC+. His defense at second base has been passable at times, though it was graded poorly last year.
While he’s set to be a key piece of the 2024 club, the Yanks likely feel they can pivot to a post-Torres era fairly easily. Oswald Peraza was still considered a top 100 prospect before he exhausted his rookie status last year, but he’s blocked from his natural shortstop position by Anthony Volpe. Peraza still has one option year remaining and could perhaps take over the keystone when Torres hits free agency. They also have multi-positional guys like Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu who could factor in at that spot.
As for the rest of the roster, Cashman said that it’s not “pencils down,” per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. “I guess it’s always pitching,” he added about a concerning area. The Yankees project to have a rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a good rotation if healthy but that’s a big “if” as each of Rodón, Cortes and Stroman missed significant time last year. The club also subtracted from their depth when they included four possible starting pitchers in the Soto deal.
Adding to that group would be sensible but the finances may be tight. Roster Resource has the club’s competitive balance tax number at $307MM right now, well beyond the top tier of $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, any additional spending comes with a 110% tax. Since they have five rotation spots allocated and they effectively have to pay double on any future signings, they may stick to depth signings on minor league deals, though a significant injury can always change that calculus.
Marlins Made Recent Offer To Tim Anderson
The Marlins recently made an offer to free-agent infielder Tim Anderson, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Miami has been on the lookout for help at shortstop throughout the offseason. Their interest in Anderson isn’t a new revelation, but the fact that they just recently put forth an offer is certainly of note.
The 30-year-old Anderson became a free agent back in November when the White Sox declined a $14MM club option. That would’ve seemed unthinkable a year prior, as Anderson was one of the game’s top-hitting middle infielders from 2019-22. During that time, he led all qualified big leaguers in batting average and turned in an overall .318/.347/.473 line in more than 1600 plate appearances.
Fortunes can change quickly, however, and Anderson’s 2023 season was nothing short of calamitous. His average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage somehow all clocked in south of .300; his overall .245/.286/.296 slash and one home run rendered him one of baseball’s least-productive hitters. Anderson saw his exit velocity and hard-hit rate both drop, but the larger issue may have been a sky-high 61.1% ground-ball rate — a jump of nearly 10 percentage points over the 52% mark he’d posted in his career prior to the 2023 campaign. No matter how fast a player may or may not be, it’s difficult to be productive when close to two-thirds of batted balls are hammered into the ground.
On that note, it bears mentioning that Anderson’s speed took a notable hit in 2023. It’s not uncommon for players to lose a step as they enter their 30s, but Anderson’s downturn could well be due to injury. Anderson missed nearly a month early in the 2023 season due to a left knee strain, and the fact that his average sprint speed (per Statcast) dropped by about a full foot per second seems likely to be related. He’d sat between 28 ft/sec and 28.7 ft/sec every season of his career prior to 2023, never ranking lower than the 74th percentile of MLB position players. In 2023, he averaged 27.2 ft/sec and clocked into just the 45th percentile. He still went 13-for-15 in stolen base attempts, but Anderson has always been deft in that regard, evidenced by a career 81.3% success rate.
On what would presumably be a one-year contract, Anderson is a sensible buy-low candidate for a team in need of middle infield help. The Marlins fit that bill and could certainly stand to improve the lineup — which a healthier Anderson could well achieve — but the Miami defense is already quite suspect, which makes Anderson a less optimal fit. With Jake Burger at the hot corner, Luis Arraez at second base and Josh Bell at first base, the Fish already have three questionable infield defenders. Defensive metrics have panned Anderson’s glovework at shortstop for the past two years — making it harder to blame any shortcomings on last year’s injury. Questions about his defense were substantial enough that Anderson voiced a willingness to shift to second base following the ’23 season.
Presumably, that wouldn’t be necessary in Miami, although the Marlins could conceivably shift Arraez to first base and deploy Bell more as the designated hitter. Before trading Arraez to the Marlins, the Twins utilized him more at first base than at second base due to concerns about his defense and his history of knee troubles. Such an alignment could improve the overall defensive outlook of the team, though it would leave the Marlins with the same hole at shortstop they’re currently looking to fill.
It’s not clear how much the Marlins have to spend. Miami is the only team in baseball that has not signed a free agent to a big league contract this winter. They’ve effectively sat out that portion of the market, instead operating only in minor league deals and small trades around the fringes of the roster. Catcher Christian Bethancourt and utilitymen Nick Gordon and Vidal Brujan — all acquired via trade — are the only new additions to the roster so far. Miami has also added veterans like Curt Casali, Trey Mancini, Yonny Chirinos and Matt Andriese on minor league deals.
Angels Hoping To Add To Rotation
The Angels are looking to add to their rotation and have been “mulling” whether to make a run at Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though Heyman adds that they’re more likely to go after a back-end guy like Michael Lorenzen. The club has been loosely tied to Snell and Montgomery earlier in the offseason but without anything seeming close or particularly viable.
The club’s current rotation projects to be fronted by some combination Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Options for the fifth spot include Chase Silseth, José Suarez and Zach Plesac. That competition also would have had Sam Bachman in it, but Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Bachman had arthroscopic surgery last fall and won’t be ready for Opening Day.
That rotation mix has talent but plenty of question marks. Detmers had a 3.77 ERA in 2022 but it jumped to 4.48 last year. Sandoval went from 2.91 to 4.11 while Anderson jumped from 2.57 to 5.43. Canning was healthy enough to get to 127 innings pitched last year but that was a new high for him, thanks to injuries and the pandemic. Suarez missed most of last year due to a shoulder strain. Silseth has just 81 innings of MLB experience and only 45 2/3 at Triple-A. Plesac’s ERA shot up to 7.59 with the Guardians last year. There was some bad luck in there but he was nonetheless passed through waivers and outrighted off the roster.
Given those question marks and the inevitable pitcher injuries that arise in a long baseball season, there’s plenty of logic in adding to that group. A run at Snell or Montgomery would be interesting, as there are reasons to doubt the possibility. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the largest contract the Angels have given a starting pitching since the start of 2012 is the three years and $39MM they gave Anderson. That historical lack of spending on starting pitching and owner Arte Moreno’s recent comments about operating with a lower payroll this year would make it surprising to see the Angels suddenly splurge on Snell or Montgomery.
Even with a lower payroll, it’s possible they have some powder dry. They opened last year with an Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and also flirted with the luxury tax line. This year, Roster Resource pegs them at $173MM, almost $40MM below where they were a year ago. Their CBT number of $188MM is almost $50MM below this year’s $237MM threshold. That could leave some wiggle room for them to make a notable signing while still having lowered their spending slightly.
Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell for $200MM over seven years and Montgomery for $150MM over six. The fact they are still on the open market in mid-February suggests they may be having difficulty getting into that range, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Angels to make something work, despite their past resistance to long-term deals for starters.
Either would immediately become the best pitcher on the staff, if added. Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young victory, posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres last year. He’s had his ups and downs but is obviously one of the best in the league when he’s throwing well. Montgomery has continued to build his innings totals and lower his ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery. He tossed 44 innings in 2020 with a 5.11 ERA, then got to 157 1/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA in 2021. He followed that up with 178 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball and then 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA last year, then adding another 31 postseason frames with a 2.90 ERA.
But signing someone like Lorenzen would be more the Angels’ style and they have, in fact, done it before. After years of being pushed to the bullpen by the Reds, the Halos gave Lorenzen a one-year, $6.75MM deal and let him try starting in 2022. It went reasonably well, as he made 18 starts and logged 97 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA.
He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Tigers and pushed himself even farther in terms of workload and results. He had a 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with Detroit before getting flipped to the Phillies. He made two excellent starts for his new club, the latter being a no-hitter, but seemed to run out of gas after that. After completing his no-hitter, he was sitting on a 3.23 ERA through 122 2/3 innings on the year. He was lit up the rest of the way and finished the season with an ERA of 4.18, but it seems possible that was a result of him pushing his innings tally into new territory.
MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $22MM deal this offseason. He remains unsigned and is arguably the best starter in free agency apart from Snell and Montgomery. Unless the Angels plan to make a pivot and open themselves up to the idea of a mega deal for a pitcher, Lorenzen would be their best path to solidifying the rotation. Other notable remaining free agent starters are Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.
Twins Still Interested In Michael A. Taylor
The Twins are known to be looking for rotation depth and a right-handed-hitting outfielder even as spring training gets underway, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Minnesota hasn’t ruled out a reunion with Michael A. Taylor. The veteran Taylor was seeking a two-year deal earlier in the offseason, per the report, though it’s not clear whether that ask remains in place.
Taylor, 33 next month, played his typical brand of plus defense in 2023 with the Twins. He logged 960 innings in center field and wound up being credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average. He went 13-for-14 in stolen base attempts, adding to his track record as a contributor on the basepaths. His season at the plate was a bit more unusual, at least by his standards.
Though he’s not typically known for his power, Taylor belted a career-high 21 homers in just 388 trips to the plate. His .223 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) was 83 points higher than the .140 career mark he carried into the season. That surge came at a cost, however. Taylor appeared to perhaps be selling out for power, as his 33.5% strikeout rate was easily a career-high mark over a full season — and nearly 10 percentage points higher than the 23.9% mark he’d turned in with the Royals just one year prior. Taylor finished out the season batting just .220 with a paltry .274 on-base percentage but a heartier .442 slugging percentage.
By all accounts, Taylor enjoyed his time in Minnesota. He said back in October that he hoped to return for the 2024 season. However, he’s not likely to have the same role waiting for him if he opts to return. Byron Buxton didn’t play a single game in center field last season as he battled lingering effects from offseason knee surgery. Buxton is slated to return to center field work this season, which would leave less playing time available for Taylor at Target Field. Of course, Buxton’s injury history is among the lengthiest in baseball, so there’d likely be some stretches where Taylor is pressed into regular duty in center — but it nonetheless seems unlikely he’d approach 1000 innings in the outfield in 2024, as he did last year.
That said, even in the unlikely event that Buxton were healthy enough to play nearly everyday in center, there’d still be ways to get Taylor into the lineup. He tattooed left-handed pitching in ’23, hitting .252/.313/.602 with nine homers in only 112 plate appearances. The Twins will have lefty-swinging bats in both the outfield corners — Matt Wallner, Max Kepler — and could use Taylor to spell either player against southpaw opponents. Kepler is a premium defender himself, making him unlikely to be lifted for a late-game defensive replacement. Wallner, on the other hand, is more of a bat-first left fielder and could be swapped out in such situations. A defensive outfield with Taylor in left, Buxton in center and Kepler in right would be among the best in the game.
Taylor has drawn interest from a wide range of teams this offseason. Each of the Pirates, Angels, Padres, Blue Jays, Reds, Dodgers and Red Sox have been linked to him at various points throughout free agency. Some of those clubs (e.g. Dodgers, Jays) have since gone in other directions in their outfield search, but Taylor is still stands as a fit with many of them.
Minnesota’s front office is likely working with a somewhat limited budget. The Twins stated early in the offseason that they planned to reduce payroll due to uncertainty regarding their television broadcast situation, with Dan Hayes of The Athletic reporting a $125-140MM range as the target at the time. They’re currently projected at about $123.5MM, per Roster Resource, so there’s certainly room to add Taylor back into the fold. Adding Taylor and another arm could prove more difficult within those budgetary constraints, barring some type of late trade to free up a bit more payroll space (e.g. Kyle Farmer). The Twins have also reportedly shown interest in righty-hitting outfielder Adam Duvall. Other options on the market include Randal Grichuk, Enrique Hernandez, Tommy Pham and perhaps Whit Merrifield, who’s expecting to decide on his next team within the next couple days.
Nationals, Jacob Barnes Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals and right-handed reliever Jacob Barnes are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The Vayner Sports client will presumably be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.
Barnes has pitched in the majors every year since 2016, suiting up for eight different teams along the way. The 33-year-old had a strong start to his career with the Brewers from 2016-18, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA and matching 3.55 FIP over the life of 147 1/3 frames, but he’s struggled in the five years since and slipped into journeyman status. Dating back to the 2019 season, Barnes has pitched 115 1/3 innings for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and Cardinals — logging a combined 6.32 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.
Despite those big league struggles, Barnes has produced at a steadily excellent clip in the upper minors. He’s pitched 134 innings over parts of six Triple-A seasons and turned in a stellar 2.15 earned run average. He’s fanned 24.1% of his opponents at that level against a 9% walk rate and has yielded only six total home runs — an average of just 0.4 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. The right-hander has above-average grounder rates and still averages better than 95 mph on his four-seamer. He’s been a two-pitch reliever throughout his career, typically leaning on a fairly standard four-seamer/slider profile.
The Nationals have largely sat out of the free agent market this offseason, with righty Dylan Floro standing as their only bullpen addition. The relief mix behind closer Kyle Finnegan and setup man Hunter Harvey is generally wide open, particularly with this week’s revelation of an injury to right-hander Mason Thompson. Floro and a returning Tanner Rainey (who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022) will give manager Davey Martinez another pair of experienced arms on which to rely, but there’s plenty of opportunity in the Washington ‘pen, should Barnes impress either in camp or in Triple-A Rochester to begin the season.
The Opener: Bohm, Orioles, Merrifield
With Spring Training underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Bohm, Phillies await arbitration results:
Just two arbitration cases have yet to reach their conclusion: that of Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, and that of Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott. According to a report from Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Bohm had his hearing yesterday with a verdict expected sometime today. Bohm requested a $4MM salary for the 2024 campaign while the Phillies countered with a $3.4MMM figure. Both figures come in below MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection for Bohm, which landed at $4.3MM. Bohm appeared in 145 games for Philadelphia last year, slashing an above-average .274/.327/.437 while splitting time between first and third base. With Bryce Harper set to take over first on a permanent basis this year, Bohm figures to get everyday reps at the hot corner in 2024.
2. Will Orioles look to add more pitching?
Yesterday was a tough day for the Orioles pitching staff, as the club announced that right-hander Kyle Bradish is suffering from a UCL sprain and will start the season on the injured list. To make matters worse, left-hander John Means is a month behind schedule entering camp.
The club’s rotation now figures to be led by a duo of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez entering the season, with Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and Cole Irvin rounding out the group. Means would likely replace Irvin or Wells whenever he’s cleared to return to the roster. Solid as that group is, it’s easy to see how Baltimore could benefit from the addition of another arm, particularly given the ominous nature of Bradish’s injury. If the club looks to make an addition this spring, Dylan Cease has been subject to trade rumors all throughout the winter, while Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Mike Clevinger linger on the open market.
3. Merrifield signing on the horizon?
Recent reporting has indicated that veteran second baseman Whit Merrifield is likely to sign on with a new club this weekend as he fields interest from five teams. A three-time All Star, the 35-year-old sports a career .284/.330/.420 line and has generally augmented that production with strong stolen base totals, the versatility to play both the infield and the outfield, and relatively low strikeout rates.
It’s unknown which teams are interested in the veteran’s services at this time, though the Pirates could be a strong speculative fit as a club that had reported interest in adding a second baseman earlier this winter but has yet to do so. The Padres could also make sense as a fit for Merrifield given their glaring need for outfielders and the small chance that incumbent second baseman Ha-Seong Kim could still be moved at some point.
Blue Jays To Sign Eduardo Escobar
TODAY: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that Escobar’s deal is a minor league arrangement.
Feb 15, 10:44pm: Escobar and the Jays are in agreement on a contract pending a physical, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on X). Terms of the deal remain unreported. Escobar is represented by DJ Rengifo y Associates.
9:55pm: Infielder Eduardo Escobar is nearing agreement on a free agent deal with the Blue Jays, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). It’s not known if the former All-Star is closing in on a big league contract or a minor league pact with a non-roster invite to Spring Training.
Escobar, 35, is coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign. He opened the season as the Mets’ third baseman but began the year in a dreadful slump. Escobar carried a .125/.173/.229 line into the middle of April and lost the starting job to Brett Baty. The 13-year MLB veteran turned things around in a depth role but seemed a bit superfluous on the New York roster once Baty was recalled.
The Angels, reeling with infield injuries in late June, acquired Escobar for a pair of minor league pitchers. He didn’t produce much offensively, slumping to a .219/.259/.303 slash over 59 contests. The Halos made the obvious call to buy him out for $500K at year’s end as opposed to retaining him via $9MM team option.
Escobar finished the season with a combined .226/.269/.344 batting line in 309 trips to the plate. He struck out in a little more than a quarter of his plate appearances against a 5.8% walk percentage. While he has never had great strikeout and walk numbers, Escobar’s power production dropped off sharply. He hit six home runs after topping the 20-homer mark in each of the prior five full schedules. That was the result of a significant uptick in ground-balls and a drop in his hard contact rate.
The Jays will hope for something more closely approximating his 2021-22 form. Escobar was a slightly above-average hitter in each of those seasons and combined for a .247/.305/.452 showing with 48 longballs over that stretch.
Escobar’s defensive grades have dropped off as he’s gotten into his mid-30s. He can play any of first, second or third base but received below-average marks at all three spots (although his first base experience is limited enough that it’s difficult to draw conclusions about his glovework there).
Toronto has a number of upper level infield options but doesn’t have much certainty at either second or third base. Last year’s primary starters, Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, are free agents. The Jays brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year pact. Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Ernie Clement and prospect Addison Barger are all on the 40-man roster and could vie for reps at one or both positions.
Should Blake Snell Consider A Short-Term Deal?
This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.
As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.
Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.
Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.
The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.
That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.
Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.
The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.
The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.
Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.
Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”
It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.
Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.
Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.
If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.
Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!
Which path should Blake Snell take?
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Short-term, high AAV, opt-outs, etc. 54% (4,428)
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Maximum total guarantee right now 46% (3,784)
Total votes: 8,212