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Orioles Sign Adam Frazier To One-Year Deal

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The Orioles and infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The O’s subsequently announced the signing.

It’s a belated birthday present for Frazier, who turned 31 years old yesterday. The veteran spent the first five years of his career with the Pirates but has bounced to the Padres and Mariners over the past couple of seasons. One of his most attractive traits is his defensive versatility, as he’s played all three outfield positions as well as the three infield positions to the left of first base.

Though he might be a bit stretched at shortstop or in center, he generally gets solid grades for his work at the corners and at second. All three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average give him positive numbers for his career at second and in left, while DRS and UZR also favor his work in right field. At second base, where he’s spent the vast majority of his time, he’s tallied 15 DRS, 1.5 from UZR and 11 OAA.

Offensively, his track record is a bit inconsistent. In his five seasons with Pittsburgh from 2016 to 2020, he was above-average in two of them, by measure of wRC+. In another two seasons, his 97 wRC+ was just below the 100 average. In the shortened 2020 season, he was down to 79. At the end of those five campaigns, his batting line was .273/.336/.413, amounting to a wRC+ of 99, just a hair under league average. Still, he was able to produce 6.8 wins above replacement due to his defensive contributions, according to FanGraphs.

In 2021, he bounced back by hitting .324/.388/.448 in 98 games with the Bucs, amounting to a wRC+ of 127. The Pirates flipped him to the Padres at the deadline but he wilted down the stretch. He hit .267/.327/.335 with San Diego for a wRC+ of 86. The Friars then traded him to the Mariners prior to 2022, but his struggles continued. As a Mariner, he hit .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81.

Despite that inconsistent track record at the plate, Frazier is a solid fit for a Baltimore team that is still trying to chart its path forward. They have a number of infielders and outfielders who are still trying to get accustomed to the major leagues or have not yet made it to the show. Jorge Mateo had a solid defensive season at shortstop but didn’t hit much and struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson had a solid debut in 2022 and seems to be ticketed for third base duty, though he’s also played second and shortstop. Ramón Urías had also been a solid contributor, even winning a Gold Glove at third base this year, though Henderson’s arrival seems to have bumped him into a utility role. Terrin Vavra could also be in the mix for a bench/utility job. Infield prospects like Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Coby Mayo could get to the big leagues in 2023 and further crowd the picture.

The O’s could conceivably platoon the left-handed hitting Frazier with the right-handed Urías at second base, though both players could also move to other positions if Baltimore wants to give some extended playing time to a young prospect. If Frazier’s bat bounces back or he’s simply getting squeezed out by other players, they could trade him at the deadline given his one-year deal.

The Orioles took a huge step forward in 2022, winning 83 games after five straight dismal seasons. Nonetheless, it seems like 2023 will be another evaluation season, as the club still has many young prospects who need to either make their major league debuts or continue acclimating to the big leagues. Frazier has the ability to slot in wherever he’s needed, giving the club a reliable defender who also has a chance to contribute with the bat. Whether the club can truly compete in 2023 or not, Frazier is likely to be a serviceable addition.

This is the second signing of the offseason for the O’s, as they also signed Kyle Gibson for a one-year, $10MM deal. Since both are one-year contracts, the club continues to have no commitments on the books for 2024, as they have completely avoided multi-year deals in recent years. The last time they signed a free agent to a deal longer than a single season was with Alex Cobb back in 2018. Roster Resource calculates their payroll as now just under $60MM, which is already a sizeable increase over last year’s $44MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Designate Jeter Downs For Assignment

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The Red Sox have officially announced their signing of outfielder Masataka Yoshida. To create space on the 40-man roster, infielder Jeter Downs was designated for assignment.

Downs, 24, is perhaps best known as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in February of 2020. Downs went to the Red Sox alongside Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong. At the time, Downs was a highly-touted prospect, featuring on the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 list in both 2020 and 2021.

Unfortunately, his stock has completely nosedived in the past two years. After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Downs spent 2021 in Triple-A, getting into 99 games on the year. His power and speed were still evident, as he hit 14 home runs and stole 18 bases. However, he struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances and finished with a batting line of .190/.272/.333 for a wRC+ of 62.

2022 was an improvement but only slightly. His strikeout rate dropped but was still quite high at 29.6%. He added another 16 homers and swiped 18 more bags, but his batting line of .197/.316/.412 added up to a 95 wRC+. He also got into 14 MLB games but hit just .154/.171/.256 in that small sample, striking out in 51.2% of his trips to the plate.

Despite making him a key piece of a franchise-altering trade, it seems the club has run out of patience with him. They will now have a week to trade him or put him on waivers. Despite the rough results in the past two seasons, it seems likely that some team would take a flier on him. He’s still only 24, was a top prospect less than two years ago and has two option years remaining. He also brings defensive versatility, having primarily played shortstop but also some second and third base.

For the Boston fans, trading away an elite talent like Betts was always going to be a bitter pill to swallow, but it seems to be getting worse with age. While Betts helped the Dodgers win the 2020 World Series, Verdugo seems to have settled in as an adequate but unexciting outfielder. Wong has yet to establish himself at the big league level and Downs is now potentially leaving the organization on a low note.

Red Sox Sign Masataka Yoshida To Five-Year Deal

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December 15: The Red Sox have officially announced the signing, designating infielder Jeter Downs for assignment in a corresponding move. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the breakdown of Yoshida’s deal, with features a $3MM signing bonus, $15MM salary in 2023 and $18MM salary in each subsequent season.

December 7: The Red Sox have made a big addition to their lineup, agreeing to terms with outfielder Masataka Yoshida. It’s reportedly a five-year, $90MM guarantee, and the deal does not contain any option provisions or opt-out clauses. The Japanese star had just been made available via the posting system this week, but the Sox struck quickly with a record-setting contract offer.

Yoshida lands the loftiest guarantee of any position player making the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors. The record was just set last spring by Seiya Suzuki, who inked a five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs. Perhaps not coincidentally, Yoshida will edge past that by a million dollars annually.

It’s a massive gamble for the Red Sox, but one they’re prepared to take to add much-needed outfield help. Yoshida has been one of the more accomplished hitters in Japan for the past few seasons. He’s appeared in NPB for the last seven years and carries a career .327/.421/.539 line. The left-handed hitter has reached base in more than 40% of his plate appearances in each of the past six seasons, and he topped a 1.000 OPS for the first time in 2022. Yoshida hit .335/.447/.561 through 508 trips to the dish this year.

The 29-year-old has shown exceptional bat-to-ball skills in Japan, walking more often than he’s struck out for four straight years. This past season’s marks were especially impressive, as he had nearly twice as many free passes as punchouts. Yoshida walked at a massive 15.7% clip while fanning in only 8.1% of his plate appearances. He surely won’t be expected to maintain rates quite that impressive in MLB, where the quality of pitchers’ repertoires is more consistent. Yet the Red Sox are confident he’ll carry over much of that elite on-base ability, presumably as a top-of-the-lineup option for skipper Alex Cora.

The plate discipline is Yoshida’s primary attribute, but he also brings a fair bit of extra-base pop. Despite being listed at just 5’8″, he’s topped 21 home runs in four of the last five years, and he’s collected over 20 doubles five years running. He’s never reached 30 longballs in a season, although he’s consistently been a threat for 20+ homers in Japan.

Suzuki had a stronger track record from a power perspective, twice topping 30 homers and blasting 38 during his final NPB season. Suzuki didn’t have Yoshida’s elite plate discipline metrics, though, posting roughly equal strikeout and walk numbers for his final two years. Yoshida brings a different profile than Suzuki will, but the Red Sox are clearly of the opinion he’ll immediately step in as an above-average offensive performer at the MLB level. Suzuki, for what it’s worth, did immediately find success — hitting .262/.332/.433 in his first season in Chicago.

Yoshida will have to perform at the plate to be productive, as he doesn’t offer much defensive value. He’s generally viewed as a left field-only player at the MLB level. That had been a key area of need for Boston, which entered today with Jarren Duran atop the depth chart. The former top prospect has only a .219/.269/.354 line in 335 MLB plate appearances over the past two years. He’ll be bumped into fourth outfield duty or back to Triple-A Worcester, and it stands to reason the Sox could at least consider the possibility of dealing Duran to add MLB help elsewhere on the roster.

Boston’s investment goes beyond the contract value, as they’ll also owe compensation to the Orix Buffaloes. Under the MLB – NPB agreement, an MLB team that signs a player who’d been posted owes a fee to the player’s former NPB team. That’s dependent on the value of the contract itself, with the posting fee coming out to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any additional dollars. On a $90MM guarantee, that comes out to a $15.375MM payment to the Buffaloes. Overall, the Red Sox’s investment tallies $105.375MM.

The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported. An even distribution of $18MM annually would bring the Sox’s estimated 2023 payroll commitments around $175MM, per Roster Resource. The $18MM average annual value brings the team’s luxury tax commitments to around $195MM. They’re still well shy of the $233MM base tax threshold and their estimated $207MM Opening Day payroll from this past season.

Boston’s certainly not done, and it’s possible they finalize another major contract in the coming days. Reports this morning suggest there’s growing momentum between the Sox and Xander Bogaerts, lending some optimism they could retain the four-time All-Star. Beyond the middle infield, areas like catcher and the back of the rotation stand out as potential targets for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff moving forward.

Yoshida’s signing subtracts another outfielder from the open market. Brandon Nimmo is the top player remaining, while Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar and Michael Conforto are options at lower tiers. Teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners reportedly had interest in Yoshida. All three have been searching for solutions in the corner outfield and will have to look elsewhere if they’re to land a lefty-swinging outfielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Red Sox and Yoshida had agreed to a five-year deal worth north of $85MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to peg the guarantee at $90MM. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the deal contained no options or opt-out clauses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants, Curt Casali Have Discussed Reunion

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The Giants have made big splashes to their infield and outfield this offseason with the signing of Carlos Correa and Mitch Haniger. They upgraded their rotation by signing Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. One thing still on the to-do list is addressing their catching corps, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting the club has been in contact with Curt Casali about him returning to the club.

When Buster Posey retired after the 2021 season, it was hoped that prospect Joey Bart could step up and take over as the club’s everyday backstop. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition just yet. At the plate, he’s got some power but undercuts his value with strikeouts. He’s been punched out in 38% of his plate appearances thus far in his career and has a batting line of .215/.296/.364 for a wRC+ of 90. He was also given negative marks by Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs’ framing metric in 2022. As Slusser notes in her piece, Bart was nudged out of working with either Carlos Rodón or Logan Webb down the stretch last year.

Veteran Austin Wynns, who is still on the roster, ended up getting into 57 games behind the plate for the club last year. His defensive numbers were around league average, better than Bart, but he’s unlikely to provide much with the bat. The 32-year-old has a career batting line of .231/.275/.337 for a wRC+ of 68. There’s a third catcher on the 40-man roster in Blake Sabol. The Giants just acquired him from the Reds, who grabbed him from the Pirates in the Rule 5 draft. He has great batting numbers in the minors but no major league experience. He also plays the outfield, making him perhaps best suited for a third catcher/utility role.

Given those options, it’s unsurprising that the club would be open to finding more certainty behind the plate. They were connected to both Sean Murphy and Christian Vázquez in recent weeks, but those players are each now off the board, having been traded to Atlanta and signed with Minnesota, respectively.

Casali, 34, is a perfectly serviceable big league catcher, though he’s never really been a club’s primary option. Though he has 462 career games played, he’s never tallied more than 84 in any individual season. He’s generally been a strong defender behind the plate, having tallied 16 Defensive Runs Saved in his career and a slightly above-average mark in terms of framing. He’s not a liability at the plate either, with a career batting line of .223/.316/.392. That amounts to a wRC+ of 92, which is 8% below league average overall but roughly average for a catcher. His 27.8% strikeout rate is definitely on the high side but he also has drawn walks at a strong 10.7% rate. The Giants are surely familiar with him as he played for them in 2021 and the first half of 2022, getting dealt to the Mariners at the deadline.

Casali would be a perfectly defensible addition, but the Giants will have other options. The trade market is now headlined by the Blue Jays and their trio of backstops: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. The free agent market doesn’t have many super exciting options now that Vázquez and Willson Contreras have signed, with Austin Hedges, Roberto Pérez, Omar Narváez and Gary Sánchez some of those still out there.

None of these options are likely to break the bank from a financial perspective. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though that was back in 2018. They also have plenty of room under the luxury tax, though if they succeed in their continued attempts to retain Rodón, that would significantly change the picture.

Identifying The Best Landing Spots For Dansby Swanson

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Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top ten free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.

The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.

Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.

Best Fits

Cubs

The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote last night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300MM as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts had, he’s likely to surpass $150MM. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.

Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? They should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157MM in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200MM+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.

Twins

The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported ten-year, $285MM bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350MM contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from their pitching staff should help in 2023, they’re behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota had already been in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.

Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by their ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. They’re not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.

Braves

The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if they’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.

As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. They’re already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson had had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16-17MM range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.

Viable But Longer Shots

Dodgers

The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting their luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly-touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201MM competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.

Red Sox

Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40MM in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, they’ve been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot towards a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162MM offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280MM figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston had offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they had to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?

Seemingly Unlikely

  • Angels: The Halos have an uncertain middle infield mix and could look outside the organization to pair with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and perhaps Gio Urshela in that group. They’ve been fairly active early, taking on around $40MM in 2023 salary to add Urhsela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez. None of it has come with a longer commitment than the three years they guaranteed Anderson, though. Does owner Arte Moreno want to add a six-plus year deal to the books when he’s hoping to sell the franchise by Opening Day?
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals were tied to Swanson earlier in the offseason. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that was likelier to happen only if the Cards landed the catcher they considered a top priority via trade. Instead, they signed the top free agent available, Contreras, for $87.5MM over five seasons. A franchise-record contract for Swanson on top of that feels uncharacteristic for an organization that usually does its hefty lifting via trade.
  • Diamondbacks: The D-Backs could use a shortstop and were loosely linked to Bogaerts earlier in the offseason. They’ve occasionally come out of nowhere to make a major free agent investment (see: Zack Greinke), but they haven’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll in either of the last two years. Bringing back Swanson, whom the previous front office initially drafted with the first overall pick in 2015, would make a lot of sense from a roster perspective, but the money probably isn’t lining up.
  • Giants: San Francisco could probably accommodate another notable signing, as they’re presently projected around $27MM below the base luxury tax threshold. They’d likely be able to fit Swanson in while avoiding tax payments, but it feels unlikely after they nabbed Correa. Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores give them other options at second and third base. First base, center field and the bullpen all look like greater areas of need.
  • Mariners: At the start of the offseason, the Mariners expressed some willingness to pursue a shortstop with an eye towards kicking him over to second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. They subsequently traded for Kolten Wong instead, which looks as if it’ll rule them out.
  • Mets: The Mets warrant cursory mention on every top free agent at this point given owner Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness. They reportedly at least considered a run at Correa with an eye towards moving him to third base. Swanson isn’t that caliber of hitter, though, and kicking him over to third while displacing Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme and top prospect Brett Baty seems like a stretch.
  • Orioles: The Orioles were reportedly poking around the shortstop market at the start of the offseason. They’ve not actually shown any signs they want to make a major investment this winter, though. With a number of top infield prospects at the MLB level or on the horizon (i.e. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz), a Swanson pursuit doesn’t seem to in the cards.
  • Padres: San Diego is in Mets territory of warranting a mention on every free agent given their boldness, but the infield is already overloaded after the Bogaerts deal.
  • Yankees: For a second straight offseason, the Yankees haven’t seemed much interested in exploring the top of a loaded shortstop class. They’ve maintained faith in prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to eventually seize that mantle. If they’re going to make another big investment after re-signing Judge, it seems Carlos Rodón is the target.

Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Swanson to wind up?

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Poll: Who Will Sign Carlos Rodon?

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Carlos Rodón is the top remaining starting pitcher in free agency and unsurprisingly has many suitors. The Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers have been connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. However, many of those teams have since signed other pitchers, potentially taking them out of the running. Also, the latest report suggests that Rodón and his representatives are looking for a deal of seven years or longer with a guarantee of $200MM or more. That’s well beyond the five years and $140MM that MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason and likely prices out some of those clubs. So, who will actually pull it off? Let’s take a look at the options.

Yankees

It is reportedly Rodón’s preference to make Yankee Stadium his home ballpark and the team is interested in him as well. That’s an excellent starting point but the fit gets more complicated from there. The Yanks would apparently prefer to limit their offers to the four- or five-year range, which is something that would have to be overcome in negotiations. It’s not surprising that the club has concerns about the long-term picture, since the future payrolls are already getting filled in. Aaron Judge is going to be making $40MM per season for the next nine years. Gerrit Cole still has six more years at $36MM per. Giancarlo Stanton has five more years between $25MM and $32MM, along with an option for 2028. Even if the club plans on turning that down at that time, it comes with a hefty $10MM buyout. DJ LeMahieu adds another $15MM per year for the next four seasons.

Even in the short term, there might be issues. There have been reports that the club would like to stay under the third tier of the competitive balance tax, as crossing that line would lead to much higher taxation rates and the club’s top 2023 draft pick moving back 10 spots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $266MM, not too far from the $273MM third tier. Adding a salary near $30MM for Rodón would push them past that line and also past the top tier of $293MM.

From a baseball standpoint, adding another starter makes sense. The club’s rotation currently consists of Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They could fill in the final slot with Domingo Germán or Clarke Schmidt and be in fine shape, but both Severino and Montas missed significant time with shoulder injuries in 2022. One more arm would bump German and Schmidt into depth roles and provide extra cover for an injury absence, but will they go for a top-of-the-market option like Rodón?

Red Sox

The Red Sox also have some long-term contracts on the books, though at lesser terms than the Yankees. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are each under control for five more seasons, though their combined salaries are just barely over $40MM in most of those seasons. That makes them roughly equal to what the Yanks are paying Judge alone, never mind Cole or Stanton. In the short term, Roster Resource has their CBT figure at $192MM, meaning they could easily add a Rodón-sized salary and stay under the first luxury tax threshold of $233MM, if they so desire.

From an on-field perspective, it also makes sense given their rotation question marks. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Garrett Whitlock has done more bullpen work in his career so far, with only nine starts in the majors at this point. Brayan Bello just debuted in 2022 and made 11 starts of middling quality. Nick Pivetta stayed healthy in 2022 but he’s never posted an ERA better than 4.53. There’s plenty of room for upgrades in there.

However, the Sox just watched their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, ship off to San Diego. They apparently made a six-year, $160MM offer that was more than $100MM below the $280MM the Padres gave him. It was even below the $189MM MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason, before spending went wild and it was clear it would take much more than that. After such a half-hearted attempt to secure a beloved franchise icon, are they really going to pivot and put in a harder charge for a new face like Rodón?

Twins

The entire Minnesota offseason has seemed to revolve around their hopes of bringing Carlos Correa back. The club has generally been pretty quiet, apart from acquiring Kyle Farmer as a Correa safety net and signing Christian Vázquez to be their catcher. They reportedly offered Correa ten years and $285MM, but he instead went to the Giants for $350MM over 13 years. Minnesota’s offer was actually a higher average annual value, but it was a significantly lower overall guarantee.

The question now is what their backup plan is. They were willing to five Correa $28.5MM per season, but would they have the same willingness for someone like Rodón? They certainly have the long-term payroll space to do it, as Byron Buxton and Vázquez are the only two players signed beyond the upcoming campaign. Vázquez will get a modest $10MM salary through 2025 while Buxton is only guaranteed $15MM per season through 2028 with various incentives available. In the short-term, the club’s payroll is only at $107MM for 2023, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s Opening Day figure of $134MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

From a baseball perspective, the club has many rotation options and doesn’t strictly need an upgrade. However, Rodón would easily jump to the top of the chart and could allow the club to trade someone else. Currently, their rotation mix consists of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and others. Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery in May and could be back later in the season. Gray and Maeda have reportedly drawn trade interest, which could allow the club to make a splash on Rodón and then use their starters to upgrade elsewhere. The largest contract in franchise history is the $184MM extension they gave to Joe Mauer back in 2010. They were willing to smash that record for Correa but what about Rodón?

Giants

The Giants have been quite aggressive this winter, already handing out a mega deal for Correa as well as smaller but still significant deals for Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. Those latter two deals bolstered their rotation, with Manaea and Stripling now joining Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Jakob Junis as rotation options. That already seems like too many starters, though the club is apparently still in on Rodón.

From a long-term payroll point of view, they could certainly do it. Haniger and Correa are the only contracts on the books by 2025 and Correa the only one beyond that. In the short term, Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $190MM and their CBT figure at $206MM. They are getting near their franchise high payroll of $201MM, per Cot’s, though that was back in 2018. The CBT figure would tiptoe over the $233MM luxury tax line by adding a Rodón-sized deal, but they could pivot and trade one of their other starters to get back under. Wood is making $12.5MM in 2023 before reaching free agency, Cobb $9MM plus an option for 2024, DeSclafani $12MM in each of the next two seasons. Those three would all surely have some degree of trade value, given the high prices for free agent starters this winter. The club is also looking for outfield and catching help, but maybe a Rodón signing could eventually allow them to plug those holes via trade.

Cardinals

Though the Cardinals have been connected to Rodón, it was reported yesterday that they are unlikely to meet his asking price. That’s not exactly shocking as the largest contract in club history is the five-year, $130MM Paul Goldschmidt extension. The most they’ve ever given a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016. To suddenly jump up to $200MM would be quite a surprise. Their payroll for 2023 is also at $164MM, per Roster Resource, which is beyond last year’s figure and a match with their franchise high, per Cot’s. They may be willing to increase payroll this year, but going $30MM beyond their previous record would be a surprise.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year. Similar to the Twins and Giants, they could sign Rodón and then flip one of their current pitchers, but the financial situation is probably an obstacle.

Rangers

The Rangers were connected to Rodón as far back as October. At the time, it made perfect sense since the club’s rotation going into the winter consisted of Jon Gray and a bunch of crash test dummies. Since then, however, they have re-signed Martín Pérez, traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed free agents Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. That group, along with Gray and Dane Dunning, puts the club’s rotation in solid shape, certainly much better than 2022. The club reportedly met with Rodón after the deGrom signing, though that was shortly before the Heaney deal was announced.

The club could certainly sign Rodón and bump Odorizzi into a sixth starter/swingman role until someone gets hurt. However, the club’s CBT figure is currently $204MM, per Roster Resource. Adding Rodón would get them near or above the luxury tax threshold of $233MM. In terms of pure payroll, the club’s current $181MM figure is already more than $15MM beyond their previous franchise record, per Cot’s. Would they be willing to add another $30MM on top of that, when they are still looking for outfield upgrades as well?

Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were connected to Rodón in a limited way, though that was before they signed Chris Bassitt. That signing and the club’s other moves have shot the payroll up to record heights and put them into luxury tax territory for the first time. Roster Resource puts their CBT figure just barely over the $233MM line. The $209MM payroll is well beyond last year’s $171MM, their previous high, per Cot’s.

The club’s current rotation would consist of Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and José Berríos, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White options for the back end. They are reportedly still open for upgrades, though adding a monster deal for Rodón seems unlikely when they are already so far into uncharted territory in terms of the finances. It’s much more likely they search for a more modest upgrade, as they were connected to Johnny Cueto yesterday.

Mets

The Mets reportedly met with Rodón back in late November, but they have since signed Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. Those three, along with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco, give the club a full rotation. The Mets are reportedly even thinking about trading Carrasco to open the final rotation slot for someone like David Peterson or Tylor Megill.

It would be foolish to completely rule the Mets out on anyone at this point, given that there doesn’t seem to be any limit to their spending. The payroll is already in record territory, with Roster Resource putting them down for $336MM and a CBT figure of $350MM. They are set to be second-time payors and are now paying a 90% tax on all spending since they are way beyond the top CBT line of $293MM. That means signing Rodón to a contract around $30MM per year would actually lead to the club paying about $60MM.

They have larger needs in the bullpen so spending huge money on Rodón doesn’t seem especially likely. However, they were just connected to Correa before he signed with the Giants, so maybe there’s still some big cash left on the pile.

Orioles

The Orioles are the best fit for Rodón in terms of long-term payroll. They have literally no one guaranteed any money for 2024. Of course, many of their players will earn arbitration salaries for that season, but they are committed to nothing. For 2023, Roster Resource pegs their payroll at a meager $52MM, less than what the Mets are set to pay in taxes alone.

The rotation could surely use an extra arm, as it currently consists of Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Spenser Watkins, Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann and DL Hall. Those guys all have limited track records and are still works in progress, apart from Gibson who was brought in as a veteran stabilizer. Prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely join the group at some point, as will John Means, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April. But there’s plenty of room for upgrades.

The main argument against a Rodón signing is the track record of the O’s under general manager Mike Elias. The club has been aggressively rebuilding and avoiding long-term commitments. The club’s last free agent signing longer than one-year was for Alex Cobb back in 2018, prior to the hire of Elias. It’s much more likely that they target a lower tier of free agency, in line with their Gibson signing and their reported interest in Michael Wacha.

Dodgers

The Dodgers were connected to Rodón back in November, but they have since agreed to terms with Noah Syndergaard. He slots into a rotation that also features Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, with prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove around as depth. There are injury concerns in there, as Kershaw hasn’t been able to throw 130 innings in a season since 2019 due to various ailments. May just came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2022 and only made six starts on the year. Gonsolin jumped from swingman to starter in 2022 but dealt with a forearm strain down the stretch. Syndergaard was healthy in 2022 but it was his first full season back from Tommy John and his velocity didn’t fully return.

It’s not impossible to think that they would add another starter, but they generally prefer short-term deals. They signed Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney to one-year deals last offseason and have done the same now with Syndergaard. The last time they signed a pitcher to a deal longer than three years was Brandon McCarthy’s four-year deal going into 2015. There have also been reports that they would like to reset their luxury tax status this year so that they can be a “first-time” payor for 2024. Roster Resource has their CBT number at $201MM. That’s well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold, but Trevor Bauer is appealing his suspension at the moment. If he gets it overturned, that puts over $30MM back onto that number, taking up the space that they could theoretically use on Rodón. A decision on that is expected in the next month or so. Until they get clarity on that, they might avoid huge commitments.

Mystery Team

Perhaps some team that hasn’t been connected to Rodón in rumors will swoop in and surprise us all. The Rays are never big spenders but were apparently willing to consider splurging on Freddie Freeman last year and Brandon Nimmo this year. The Mariners have been surprisingly quiet this winter and could be open to trading Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Cubs have signed Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger this winter but haven’t yet made the big splash many expected. They’ve been often connected to the shortstops and could still go after Dansby Swanson but the rotation has plenty of question marks. The Padres have already spent a bunch but apparently just missed on Bassitt. Do they have one more surprise up their sleeve?

Which of these paths makes the most sense to you? Have your say in the poll below!

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Reds Have Shown Interest In Johnny Cueto Reunion

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The Reds have reached out to free-agent right-hander Johnny Cueto about a potential reunion for the 2023 season, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Cueto was also linked to the Blue Jays earlier this week.

Cueto, 37 in February, enjoyed a resurgent 2022 season with the White Sox, making his highest number of starts (24) since 2017 and logging the most innings he’s thrown in a season (158 1/3) since 2016. Signed to a minor league deal just prior to Opening Day 2022, Cueto began the season ramping up in Triple-A and ultimately totaled 174 innings between that minor league tune-up and a successful run with the ChiSox that saw him log a 3.35 ERA.

Granted, Cueto’s 15.7% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB, ranking 130th among the 140 pitchers who tossed at least 100 inning. However, Cueto’s 5.1% walk rate ranked 22nd in that same set of pitchers, and he was also comfortably in the top half of the league in terms of limiting hard contact; Statcast ranked his average exit velocity in the 69th percentile of MLB pitchers and his hard-hit rate in the 67th percentile. Despite pitching his home games at the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto averaged just 0.85 homers per nine frames. It’s true that he posted better results and allowed fewer homers on the road (2.84 ERA, 0.59 HR/9) than at home (3.83 ERA, 1.09 HR/9), but Cueto was a generally effective pitcher in both settings.

That ability to limit home runs, if the Reds feel he can sustain it moving forward, ought to hold appeal to Cincinnati brass. Great American Ball Park, the Reds’ home stadium, has been far and away the most homer-friendly stadium in all of MLB over the past three seasons, per Statcast’s park factors, producing long balls at 50% greater than a league-average rate. Guaranteed Rate Field, Cueto’s aforementioned home environs as a member of the White Sox, ranks a distant second.

Whether Cueto or another veteran innings eater, the Reds could quite clearly use some stability in a rotation that’ll be composed entirely of unproven MLB starters. Prospects Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all made their big league debuts in 2022 and appear ticketed for rotation jobs in 2023, and all three held their own.

Greene, a former No. 2 overall draft pick and one of the game’s consensus top prospects heading into the season, logged a 4.44 ERA in 125 2/3 frames while fanning 30.9% of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Home runs were an issue (1.72 HR/9), but he’s a clearly exciting arm around which to build. Similar things can be said about Lodolo, another top-tier prospect who tossed 103 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball with a 29.7% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. He missed nearly three months with a back injury but was impressive when healthy. Ashcraft didn’t carry the same fanfare on national prospect rankings but was regarded as one of the organization’s better arms and managed 105 innings of 4.89 ERA ball, relying more heavily on plus ground-ball (54.5%) and walk (6.5%) rates than on missing bats (15.3% strikeout rate).

Beyond that solid young trio, options are sparse. Longtime Yankees reliever Luis Cessa appears ticketed for a starting gig with the Reds, who acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline. Cessa moved from the bullpen to the rotation late in 2022 and pitched to a 3.77 ERA with a 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 43% grounder rate and 1.67 HR/9 in 43 innings in that role.

Looking further down the list, righties Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are potential rotation options, while prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could get a look in next year’s rotation. Each of Dunn, Williamson and Stoudt were acquired in trades with the Mariners — the former two in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker, the latter as part of the Luis Castillo swap. Dunn missed most of 2022 with a shoulder injury and posted a 6.10 ERA when healthy, however, while Williamson walked 13.9% of his opponents and pitched to a 4.11 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. Stoudt only reached Triple-A for his final 19 innings but posted a combined 4.70 ERA in 111 minor league frames.

The Reds currently project for a payroll of just $73MM, with much of that money earmarked for veterans Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas in the final seasons of their respective multi-year contracts. There ought to be ample space to add a veteran in the Cueto mold, but Cincinnati hasn’t spent more than $7.5MM on any free agent since signing Nick Castellanos in Jan. 2020 and it remains to be seen just how much they’ll be willing to commit to free agents this winter. Thus far, catcher Luke Maile’s $1.175MM deal is the Reds’ lone free-agent addition.

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The Opener: Giants, Cubs, MLBTR Chat

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As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things to keep an eye on today:

1. With Correa on board, what’s next for San Francisco?

The Giants have agreed to terms with star shortstop Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract, which will install Correa as the face of the Giants franchise through his 40th birthday. Correa adds immediate impact to a team that desperately needs it following the retirement of Buster Posey last year. With that being said, the Giants will need to do more if they want to return to the postseason in 2023. While the Giants are adding a likely 5-win player in Correa, they also appear unlikely to re-sign Carlos Rodon at this point, who produced 6.2 fWAR for them last season. The additions of Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling should help offset that loss, and Mitch Haniger should bolster their outfield production. Still, there’s plenty left for San Francisco to do this offseason if they want to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. While an outfield unit of Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr. (plus likely designated hitter Joc Pederson) is solid, the Giants are nonetheless reportedly looking to add another outfielder. The free agent market for outfielders has begun to thin out, but there are still some interesting players available, including Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar. Additionally, the trade market has plenty of options, with the likes of Bryan Reynolds, Max Kepler, and Daulton Varsho drawing interest so far this offseason. Aside from the outfield, San Francisco is known to be interested in a late-inning bullpen arm to pair with incumbent closer Camilo Doval. While the Giants came up short in their pursuit of Kenley Jansen, other options remain on the market, such as Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, and Taylor Rogers, twin brother of Giants reliever Tyler Rogers.

2. Do the Cubs have more moves on the horizon?

Entering the offseason, there were high expectations for the Cubs, who performed surprisingly well in the second half of 2022 and were frequently speculated upon as a landing spot for a star shortstop. Flash forward to today, though, and the offseason hasn’t gone as many fans would have hoped. Correa, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts are all off the market along with potential fits at other positions, such as Christian Vazquez, Sean Murphy, and Kodai Senga. This offseason hasn’t been entirely quiet, as the club has added both outfielder Cody Bellinger and starter Jameson Taillon. While both are sensible additions to a roster with plenty of holes, it’s an open question whether these moves can even make up for the production lost by franchise catcher Willson Contreras moving on to sign with the division-rival Cardinals, much less set the Cubs up to attempt to return to the postseason. Dansby Swanson is still on the market, and the Cubs do appear to be a legitimate candidate to sign him, but he should have multiple suitors, including the Twins, who recently lost Correa. Owner Tom Ricketts pledged in August to be “very active in free agency” this offseason — comments that generally echoed his Oct. 2021 statement to fans, wherein he declared: “We commit to fielding a competitive team reflective of your unrivaled support.” If Taillon ends up as the Cubs’ most notable addition, that doesn’t necessarily line up with the expectations created by Ricketts himself in those public-facing comments.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If there’s still unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team burning in your mind, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting another chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and you can use the same link to check back in this afternoon and participate live once the chat begins.

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