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Blue Jays Sign Kevin Kiermaier

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Dec. 15: The Blue Jays have formally announced their one-year deal with Kiermaier. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the contract contains $750K of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster.

Dec. 14: Kiermaier’s contract is a one-year deal that comes with a $9MM guarantee, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

Between Kiermaier’s $9MM salary and the recent $21MM annual value on the Jays’ three-year deal with righty Chris Bassitt, the Jays now project to cross the luxury-tax threshold for the first time; Roster Resource pegs them at just over $234MM — a bit more than $1MM north of the $233MM cutoff point. Certainly there are ways for Toronto to duck back beneath the barrier if required — a trade of catcher Danny Jansen, for instance, would clear his projected $3.7MM salary and bring back help in other areas of need — but there’s no indication that ownership has placed given the front office any such mandates.

Dec. 10: The Blue Jays have an agreement in place with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The deal is pending a physical. It’ll be just the second team Kiermaier has played for, having spent ten big league seasons with the AL East rival Rays. He became a free agent for the first time after the Rays declined his $13MM team option for 2023. Kiermaier is represented by Equity Baseball.

Center field has been an area of need for the Blue Jays this winter, and they had previously been linked with Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

The 32-year-old appeared in 63 games for the Rays last season, slashing .228/.281/.369 with seven home runs over 221 plate appearances. He’s always been known for his stellar defense in center field, and while that’s declined a bit in recent seasons he was still worth two Defensive Runs Saved there in 2022. The offensive production amounted to a below average wRC+ of 90, but his defensive work meant he was still worth 1.1 fWAR.

Injuries played a big part in Kiermaier’s 2022 season, as he landed on the IL in June with left hip inflammation. He was activated July 1, but by July 10 he was back on the IL with the same problem, which ultimately ended his season early. He’d wind up having surgery in August to address the labrum issue in the left hip, but the expectation at the time was that he’d be ready for spring training.

Kiermaier is a three-time Gold Glove winner who’s been one of the best center fielders in all of baseball for the past decade. Since his first full year in 2014, Kiermaier has been worth 147 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Fielding Bible. That’s the best of all outfielders and second overall behind Andrelton Simmons (who had 1,400 more defensive innings).

Despite 2022 being the worst defensive year of his career, it was still above average and there’s every chance his hip problem played a significant part in that. After all, just a year ago he was worth 13 DRS in 894 2/3 center field innings. He still ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed and ranked well above league average in arm strength.

Offense has never been Kiermaier’s calling, and he owns a lifetime .248/.308/.407 line. That’s largely built off his early work, and since 2018 he’s put up a wRC+ of 79, 79, 94, 101 and then 90. There’s not a lot of power there (82 career home runs), and his strikeout rate has gradually ticked up to 27.6% in 2022 against a walk rate of 6.3%.

George Springer has been handling the bulk of the work in center field in recent seasons, but there’s been speculation that he’d move to a corner spot moving forward. The trade of Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners and this signing of Kiermaier seems to confirm that, and it looks likely the Jays will line up with Springer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corner spots with Kiermaier manning center.

This move may not be the last outfield addition either, and the team could look to add a fourth offensively-minded outfielder at some stage. Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet reports that the team has interest in both Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley. Signing either of those two would give the Jays a more flexible outfield group, and allow them to rotate options through the DH position as well depending on matchups, form and workload.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Sign Sam Clay To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks inked reliever Sam Clay to a minor league contract this week, according to an announcement from their top affiliate in Reno. The left-hander receives an invite to big league camp.

Initially a Twins draftee, Clay spent six-plus seasons in the Minnesota system but never cracked the 40-man roster. The Twins allowed him to hit minor league free agency, where he drew enough interest to land an MLB deal with the Nationals. Clay spent most of the following season working out of Dave Martinez’s bullpen, making 58 appearances as a rookie. He allowed a 5.60 ERA through 45 innings, striking out a below-average 15.9% of opponents with a slightly elevated 10.3% walk rate.

It wasn’t an ideal start to his big league career, but the sinkerballer showed the ability to rack up plenty of ground balls at the MLB level. He induced worm-burners on around three-fifths of batted balls, showing enough to hold his spot on the 40-man roster for a season and a half. Clay got into six more MLB games this year before Washington designated him for assignment. He made a rapid tour of the NL East, bouncing to the Phillies and Mets on successive waiver claims. In late August, New York succeeded in running through waivers and stashing him in Triple-A for the remainder of season. Clay had pitched just once for them at the MLB level, and he reached minor league free agency again at the end of the year.

The Georgia Tech product spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, where he had a decent season. Between Washington’s and New York’s affiliates, he put up a 3.56 ERA in 43 innings. Clay struck out a fine 24.1% of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate and again posted massive grounder percentages at both stops. Clay held left-handed hitters to a meager .191 batting average and .279 slugging mark in the minors this year, albeit with a 14.6% walk rate that led to a .375 on-base percentage.

Clay will get a look in big league camp to try to earn a spot in Torey Lovullo’s bullpen. Arizona has a pair of southpaws penciled into key roles, with All-Star Joe Mantiply pairing with Kyle Nelson. Clay will try to earn a spot behind that duo, likely as a situational grounder specialist. The 29-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining; if he secures a 40-man roster spot at any point, the Snakes can shuttle him between Arizona and Reno as a depth player for another season.

Twins Drawing Trade Interest On Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda

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The Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s not clear how open Minnesota is to moving either player, although it stands to reason they’d at least gauge the market and see if another club were willing to bowl them over with an offer.

It’s unsurprising other teams would eye the pair of Minnesota righties, both of whom have established track records as productive MLB starters. Gray would be the more appealing of the duo, as Maeda didn’t pitch in 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent in September ’21. Gray dealt with a few health issues himself, missing time with a pair of strains in his right hamstring and a pectoral strain. Around the trio of injured list stints, the righty pitched well, though.

Acquired from the Reds in Spring Training, Gray made 24 starts during his first season in Minnesota. He posted a 3.08 ERA across 119 2/3 innings, fanning an above-average 24% of opponents against an average 7.4% walk rate. Gray’s 44.5% ground-ball percentage was a personal low, but it was still a bit better than par. At his best, the two-time All-Star generates a rare combination of whiffs and grounders. He hasn’t reached 30 starts in either of the past two seasons, but Gray’s an upper mid-rotation caliber arm when he’s healthy.

At year’s end, Minnesota made the easy call to exercise a $12.5MM option on his services. He’s slated to return to the Twin Cities for what’ll be his age-33 campaign before hitting the open market for the first time.

Maeda is also down to his final year under contract, with his salary to be determined by his health. The righty is headed into the final season of the eight-year deal he initially inked with the Dodgers coming off from Japan. That deal was layered with innings-based incentives, as the Dodgers expressed concerns about Maeda’s medical evaluation at the time.

The 34-year-old is due a $3MM base salary, and he’ll lock in a $150K bonus for being on the Opening Day roster. Maeda can earn an additional $10MM annually in incentives. He’d pick up $1MM each for reaching 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5MM apiece at 25, 30 and 32 starts; he can tack on up to $3.5MM based on his innings totals between 90 and 200 frames in a season, and he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

While there’s a chance for Maeda to earn more than Gray does next season, that’d only be in the event of his staying healthy after a lost season. If his elbow holds up and he regains his pre-surgery form, the 6’1″ hurler would be a nice addition to the middle of a starting staff. Maeda was brilliant in the shortened 2020 season, securing a second-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled to a 4.66 mark in 21 appearances the next year, but his strikeout and walk rates remained strong. Since coming off from the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, Maeda has provided the Twins 173 frames of 3.90 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout percentage.

It’s worth reiterating that while there’s no harm for other teams in reaching out to president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, Minnesota isn’t under any pressure to deal either pitcher. They’re both a year from free agency, but the Twins are generally expected to make another run at competing in 2023. Minnesota has had two straight disappointing seasons, and they’ll now have to overcome the free agent loss of Carlos Correa. Yet the Twins have ample payroll room, with a projected 2023 payroll nearly $30MM south of this past season’s Opening Day mark.

The Twins have been tied to each of the top two remaining free agents, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón. They could fit either player into the long-term budget without subtracting anyone from the existing roster, and landing either would signal a firm commitment to trying to compete in the American League’s weakest division. Still, the Twins have also shown at least some willingness to shuffle up their MLB roster. They’ve reportedly given some consideration to moving defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez if it nets them major league help elsewhere, and they could explore a similar path with right fielder Max Kepler.

As things stand, Gray and Maeda are set to feature in an Opening Day rotation that’ll include Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder are on hand as depth options, as are Cole Sands and Louie Varland. Minnesota could welcome Chris Paddack back in the season’s final two months if his recovery from a second career Tommy John surgery goes according to plan. There’s enough health uncertainty the Twins could choose to stockpile their rotation depth, though the presence of a few interesting younger options at least gives the front office alternatives if they were to ponder making Gray or Maeda available.

Orioles Interested In Michael Wacha

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The Orioles are showing interest in free agent starter Michael Wacha, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They’re the first team of the offseason known to be checking in on the right-hander, who’s coming off a decent season with the division-rival Red Sox.

Wacha, 31, inked a one-year, $7MM deal with Boston last offseason. He’d posted a 5.05 ERA in 124 2/3 innings with the Rays the year before and hadn’t found much success keeping runs off the board since 2018. The Red Sox nevertheless took on a flier on a bounceback, placing their faith in a fastball that sat around 94 MPH and a swinging strike rate that had been north of 11% in each of the preceding two seasons.

The former first-round pick rewarded them with his most successful year in a while. Wacha made 23 starts and tallied 127 1/3 innings, pitching to a quality 3.32 ERA. He landed on the injured list twice — first with a left intercostal strain, then with inflammation in his throwing shoulder — but generally kept runs off the board when healthy. Wacha allowed three or fewer runs in 17 of his outings while holding opponents to a .233/.283/.410 line in 515 plate appearances.

Strong control helped him keep runners off base, as he walked only 6% of opponents. Wacha has established himself as a quality strike-thrower, but there also seems to have been a decent amount of fortune in this year’s results. Opponents hit just .260 on their balls in play against him, the lowest BABIP he’d allowed in five years. Wacha’s 20.2% strikeout rate and 41% ground-ball percentage were each slightly lower than the league average.

The Texas A&M product also saw minor dips in his swinging strike number and velocity. He generated whiffs on 9.5% of his pitches, below his 2020-21 levels. Wacha’s average fastball speed also lost a tick, dipping from 93.8 MPH in 2021 to an even 93 MPH this year. ERA estimators like FIP (4.14) and SIERA (4.07) each pegged his true talent a bit north of 4.00 — still useful production, but not quite as impressive as his actual ERA might suggest.

Even if Wacha’s run prevention regresses somewhat, he’s a sensible target for clubs seeking rotation help. Wacha has ten seasons of MLB experience under his belt, and he carries a 4.05 ERA in over 1100 career innings. Other than a brief spike in walks towards the end of his time in St. Louis, he’s shown consistently plus control. That kind of reliability makes him a fine fit at the back half of a contending club’s rotation.

The Orioles entered the offseason searching for rotation help. Jordan Lyles was the only Baltimore pitcher to top 23 starts this past season, and the O’s bought out an $11MM club option at year’s end to send him to the open market. Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells and Spenser Watkins all posted serviceable or better ERA’s over 15-plus starts, but Voth was the only one with a strikeout rate around league average. Kyle Bradish had a decent strikeout rate but an ERA pushing 5.00. Mike Baumann and DL Hall joined Bradish in seeing some MLB action as rookies, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez may well have debuted this year if not for a lat injury.

The O’s had a number of internal options to compete for jobs on Brandon Hyde’s starting staff, but everyone in the mix had either limited or no track record of MLB success. Baltimore thus brought in Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal last month to add some veteran stability. They’re still expected to add another starter, and Wacha’s one of the remaining options in a free agent class that’s rapidly thinning. MLBTR predicted Wacha for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason. He’s one of five unsigned starting pitchers who’d secured a spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents, alongside Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski.

Brewers Acquire Owen Miller, Designate Mario Feliciano

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The Brewers announced they have acquired infielder Owen Miller from the Guardians in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. To make room on the 40-man roster, catcher Mario Feliciano has been designated for assignment.

Miller, 26, was originally drafted by the Padres but came over to the Guardians in the Mike Clevinger trade in 2020. He cracked the club’s 40-man roster in May 2021. Though he’s always hit well in the minors, he’s struggled at the big league level so far. In 190 MLB games, hit batting line is .231/.283/.338. That production is 26% below league average, as evidenced by his 74 wRC+.

The bulk of Miller’s major league experience came this past season. He hit .243/.301/.351 in 472 trips to the dish. Miller connected on just six home runs, but he rapped out 26 doubles and showed excellent contact skills. Miller put the bat on the ball on nearly 84% of his swings, well north of the 76.6% league average. He went down on strikes just 19.7% of the time, part of a broadly contact-oriented lineup in Cleveland.

Without much power and a meager 6.8% walk rate, however, Miller was a below-average offensive player overall. The Illinois State product has a much stronger minor league track record, hitting .305/.368/.450 in just under 1100 plate appearances.

Miller has a fair bit of defensive flexibility. He’s played mostly second and first base in the majors, but he has some experience at shortstop and third base at lower levels. He doesn’t have a particularly strong arm, indicating he’s probably best suited on the right side of the infield. He’ll add a right-handed bat to potentially jostle for playing time with lefty-hitting rookie Brice Turang at the keystone and lefty slugger Rowdy Tellez at first base.

With two remaining minor league option years, Miller can bounce between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as a depth player for the next couple seasons if he holds his spot on the 40-man roster. He has between one and two years of MLB service, so he’ll be controllable through at least the end of the 2027 campaign. Miller won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

Adding him to the roster bumps Feliciano, whose time in the Milwaukee organization could now be coming to an end. A supplemental second-round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2016, the righty-hitting backstop was regarded as a potential catcher of the future for the Brew Crew. Feliciano had a monster showing at High-A in 2019 and was named by Baseball America one of the top ten prospects in the Brewers system the next two seasons. After the canceled minor league season in 2020, however, his production has tanked.

Feliciano has spent the bulk of the last two years in Nashville. He has just a .256/.304/.367 line in 425 plate appearances. The 24-year-old has shown solid contact skills, but he doesn’t draw many walks and hasn’t hit for much power at the higher levels. Prospect evaluators have also raised concerns about Feliciano’s defense, and Milwaukee hasn’t given him much of a look at the big league level. He’s gotten into just three MLB games over the past two seasons despite holding a 40-man roster spot since the end of the 2020 campaign.

The Brewers will have a week to deal Feliciano or place him on waivers. He still has one option year remaining, meaning another team that claims him could send him back to Triple-A next year to see if he can right the ship at the plate.

Cardinals “Unlikely” To Meet Asking Price For Carlos Rodón

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The Cardinals are one of the many teams to have been connected to free agent lefty Carlos Rodón. However, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that it’s “unlikely the Cardinals would shell out the years and money” that Rodón is seeking.

The fact that the Cards have been priced out of Rodón’s market isn’t exactly shocking. The latest report on his asking price indicates that he’s looking for a guarantee over $200MM on a deal of seven years or longer. That’s extremely rarefied air for a pitcher, with only a handful ever reaching either that length or that kind of guarantee or both.

The Cardinals have never given out that kind of money to any player, a pitcher or otherwise. They’ve never really come close, in fact. The largest contract in franchise history is the five-year, $130MM extension they gave to Paul Goldschmidt in March of 2019. The largest guarantee they’ve given a free agent is the $120MM they gave to Matt Holliday in 2010. The largest contract they’ve given a pitcher was the $97.5MM extension given to Adam Wainwright in March of 2013, whereas the largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent pitcher was $80MM for Mike Leake going into 2016.

A deal in the $200MM range for Rodón would dwarf any of those deals, meaning that the Cardinals have to set an aggressive new standard to get it done, even in a vacuum. Outside of the vacuum, there are other factors that also make it unlikely. The highest Opening Day payroll in club history is $164MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already effectively even with that record, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. The club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated that the club will increase payroll this season, but meeting Rodón’s asking price would mean going about $30MM beyond previous levels in 2023 while also adding significant long-term commitments. Between Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, the Cards already have over $40MM on the books for 2026 and over $30MM for 2027. Giving Rodón what he’s looking for would come close to doubling those figures and have the club committing a huge chunk of their payroll to three players who will each be in their mid-30s by then.

The Cardinals also don’t strictly need a starter right now, as they have a number of rotation options. Their current crop of starters includes Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. There are some injury concerns in there but it’s still a solid group overall, with depth options like Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson available if needed. Adding Rodón would certainly be an upgrade, especially after 2023 when Wainwright will retire and Flaherty, Mikolas and Montgomery will all be free agents. However, that group is also decent enough for the club to compete in the National League Central this year.

It’s always possible that Rodón’s asking price will come down if he fails to find a deal that he likes. As mentioned, it’s quite rare for pitchers to crack $200MM. Only six pitchers have ever gone above that line: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. Rodón has been quite good over the past two seasons but doesn’t have the track record to match up with those guys in their respective primes. Injuries have limited him to 847 1/3 innings so far in his career and he only just cracked 170 for a single season for the first time in 2022. Each of those other guys had multiple seasons of over 200 innings and well over 1,000 total innings. Starting pitcher usage has gone down in recent years but it’s still a significant difference.

There are many teams still interested, such as the Yankees, Twins, Giants and others. However, no one has met his asking price just yet. If it drops, perhaps the Cardinals will reconsider their pursuit, but it doesn’t seem to be the most probable course of events at the moment.

Dodgers Acquire J.P. Feyereisen

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3:15pm: The Rays have officially announced the deal.

10:18am: The Rays are receiving minor league lefty Jeff Belge in the trade, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

10:10am: The Dodgers and Rays have agreed to a trade sending right-hander J.P. Feyereisen from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The Rays will receive a minor league pitcher in exchange for Feyereisen, who underwent shoulder surgery last week and is expected to be sidelined into late August. The Rays designated Feyereisen for assignment yesterday to make roster space for newly signed Zach Eflin.

It’s a long-term play for the Dodgers, as Feyereisen is still controllable through the 2026 season via arbitration. The Rays would surely have loved to keep Feyereisen until this spring, when they could place him on the 60-day injured list and free up his 40-man roster spot. However, Tampa Bay also has righties Shane Baz and Andrew Kittredge recovering from Tommy John surgery and in need of 60-day IL spots when camp opens. As such, carrying all three until Spring Training would’ve effectively amounted to Tampa Bay operating with a 37-man roster instead of a 40-man roster for the balance of the offseason.

Feyereisen’s DFA raised plenty of eyebrows yesterday, as the right-hander rattled off 24 1/3 scoreless innings for the Rays in 2022 before being shelved by the shoulder injury that eventually led to the recent operation to repair both his right rotator cuff and labrum. A year prior, Feyereisen had turned in 56 innings of 2.73 ERA ball, albeit with a bloated 14.1% walk rate that created some skepticism about his ability to sustain that pace.

The now-29-year-old righty (30 in February) not only improved his command in 2022 but sent his walk rate plummeting to 5.8% — a mark that’s leaps and bounds better than league average. All told, Feyereisen has 89 2/3 innings of experience at the big league level and has pitched to a 2.31 ERA with a 23.8% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate. However, if he can sustain any of the 2022 strides he made in terms of strikeout rate (29.1%) or walk rate, he has the potential to be a vital late-inning arm for the Dodgers for three-plus seasons. And, because he’s unlikely to pitch much this season, his first trip through the arbitration process next winter shouldn’t produce a particularly large salary.

Belge, 25, was the Dodgers’ 18th-round pick in 2019 and spent the 2022 season pitching for their High-A affiliate, where he logged a 3.66 ERA in 32 innings and fanned a whopping 36.7% of his opponents — albeit against a concerning 12.5% walk rate. Belge was older than the average competition in the Midwest League in 2022 — his second stint at that level — but has drawn praise from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen for a 96 mph heater and above-average slider.

The Dodgers have a trio of open spots on the 40-man roster, so it’s far easier for them to roster Feyereisen for the time being, even if he’ll now bump them up to 38. They’ll part ways with a hard-throwing lefty who has a penchant for missing bats and could begin the 2023 season in Double-A. By the time 2024 rolls around, it’s possible that both Feyereisen and Belge are ready for work in their respective teams’ big league bullpens, though Belge is far from a sure thing given his shaky command and a history of eye troubles dating back to a freak injury in his childhood days.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Johnny Cueto

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The Blue Jays made a notable addition to their rotation this week by signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, but they might not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the club is open to further additions and have shown recent interest in righty Johnny Cueto.

The club has four rotation spots now spoken for, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Bassitt all locked in as long as they’re healthy. The final spot in the rotation is a bit less concrete, however. The club signed lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal going into 2022 but saw him struggle badly, eventually getting bumped to the bullpen and finishing the year with a 5.19 ERA. Righty Mitch White had a 3.70 ERA with the Dodgers when the Jays acquired him at the deadline, but he posted a 7.74 ERA after the deal. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in June and won’t be an option until the second half of the season even in a best-case scenario. Nate Pearson was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but he’s been limited by various injuries to less than 50 innings in each of the past three seasons. Given all that uncertainty at the back end, it’s unsurprising that a win-now club like the Jays would be open to adding a stable veteran.

Cueto, 37 in February, surely fits the bill having pitched in each of the past 15 MLB seasons with a career 3.44 ERA. One of the best pitchers in baseball earlier in his career, he’s falling from those incredible heights but has proven himself to still be quite useful of late. He dealt with injuries and was barely able to pitch in 2018 and 2019, then struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, he’s had a solid return to form in each of the past two campaigns.

With the Giants in 2021, he tossed 114 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit shy of average, but his 6.1% walk rate was quite strong. He reached free agency after that campaign and lingered on the market after the lockout. He eventually signed a minor league deal with the White Sox in early April, though one that would pay him a prorated $4.2MM salary once in the majors. After getting built up to a starter’s workload, he made it back to the big leagues in May and eventually tossed 158 1/3 innings for the Pale Hose with a 3.35 ERA. Similar to the year before, he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, finishing with a 15.7% rate. However, his control was even better, as he walked just 5.1% of batters faced. He got grounders on 42.6% of balls in play and limited hard contact, coming in the 67th percentile in terms of hard hit percentage and 69th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.

Given Cueto’s age, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal but he should still earn a decent salary. He’s coming off a stronger platform than he was one year ago and the market for starting pitching has been quite strong overall this year. The free agent market still has a few surefire starters in Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard and Michael Wacha, but Cueto is one of the more attractive options outside of that group. Others include Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Drew Rucinski.

Notably, the Blue Jays are now positioned to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time in franchise history. The recent signings of Bassitt and Kevin Kiermaier have nudged the team just barely over the $233MM threshold, according to Roster Resource. It’s always possible that they could make a trade that puts them back under, but it seems possible the club is willing to stay over the line by season’s end. If that is indeed the case, then perhaps they are willing to spend a bit more to add Cueto or someone similar to their pitching staff. Nicholson-Smith relays that president Mark Shapiro recently said that the CBT is “not an obstacle” for ownership. “The support and the growth of that payroll is unprecedented in the history of the franchise and it continues to be very strong.”

It’s unclear how high they plan on taking the payroll, but they appear to be targeting areas other than the rotation. Nicholson-Smith reiterates their known interest in outfielders and adds that they have been showing interest in “high-upside relievers” even after acquiring Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade earlier this winter. No names are listed as specific targets, but some of the top relief names on the open market are Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Adam Ottavino and Michael Fulmer. Nicholson-Smith adds on Twitter that it’s possible the Jays are more likely to add in the bullpen than the rotation, despite the interest in Cueto.

Cubs Sign Cody Bellinger

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December 14: The Cubs have officially announced the signing.

December 6: The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Cody Bellinger. It will be a one-year deal with a $12.5MM salary and a $5MM buyout on a mutual option, bringing the guarantee to $17.5MM. Bellinger is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bellinger, 27, has been one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, given that he has shown incredible upside in the past but has been in a dismal downturn in recent years. Over his first three seasons, 2017 to 2019, Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% better than league average during that time. That included a 2019 season where he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also provided excellent outfield defense, leading to a tally of 7.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.

Bellinger slid a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average with his wRC+ finishing at 112, but a significant drop-off from previous seasons. An ill-advised celebration in the postseason caused a shoulder injury that required surgery and he hasn’t seemed himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then bounced back a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.

Despite those down years, Bellinger’s salary kept climbing for a few reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time going into 2020, on the heels of his MVP campaign, as a Super Two player. He quickly jumped up to $11.5MM in his first year of eligibility and then to $16.1MM for 2021 after having a diminished but still productive 2020. Since the arbitration system is designed to push salaries up, Bellinger jumped to $17MM for 2022 despite his poor performance in the prior season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected another jump to $18.1MM for 2023 but the Dodgers decided to cut bait and non-tendered Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving on to a new club, they will have to chart a new course in center field for 2023.

Despite the rough few years Bellinger has had, he still found robust interest as a free agent. At one point, Heyman reported that there were 11 teams at the table. That’s due to a couple of factors, one of them being that Bellinger was looking for a one-year deal so that he could potentially return to form and then go back to free agency in search of a better deal. That opened the door to many suitors who would normally be wary of a lengthy commitment but would happily take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. There’s also the fact that Bellinger provides a decent floor with his speed and excellent center field defense. Despite a subpar batting line in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR by stealing 17 bases and producing six Outs Above Average in center field.

The Cubs were linked to Bellinger a few weeks ago and make plenty of sense as a landing spot for him. The rebuilding team had a rotating cast of characters playing center field for them this year, including Christopher Morel, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez and Michael Hermosillo. All of those players were subpar at the plate except for Morel, who is a natural infielder and produced poor defensive numbers on the grass. The Cubs have some intriguing outfield prospects that could fill this role in the long run, but Bellinger and Ian Happ are set to become free agents a year from now, meaning there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya Suzuki, who’s controlled through 2026, is the only outfielder penciled in for the long haul.

Financially, there’s no real impediment for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes their commitments to just under $140MM for next year, according to Roster Resource. They had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but have been over $203MM in recent seasons and should have plenty of space still to work with.

The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years but could be aggressive this offseason in trying to return to contention in 2023. Whether they are successful or not, Bellinger could potentially be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a useful ballplayer even if his bat doesn’t rebound to previous levels. If he and the team are both playing well, that’s a great outcome for all involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term deal means he should be able to be flipped at the deadline for prospects. As mentioned, even if Bellinger doesn’t truly bounce back, he can still be a useful player with his glovework and baserunning, meaning he could still be an interested trade chip regardless.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first with Bellinger going to the Cubs. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the $17.5MM guarantee. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the structure of the $12.5MM salary with $5MM buyout on the mutual option.

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