Dodgers Showing Interest In Seth Lugo
The Dodgers are among numerous teams that have shown interest in free agent hurler Seth Lugo, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (on X). Alexander indicates that upwards of two-thirds of the league has checked in with Lugo’s camp, aligning with a recent report from FanSided’s Robert Murray that more than half the teams were involved.
Los Angeles is a suitable fit for every free agent starter. The Dodgers have less certainty in their rotation than they’ve had at any point in the past few seasons. Of the four pitchers who topped 100 innings, only Bobby Miller is going to open next year in the rotation. Julio Urías is unlikely to return after being arrested on domestic violence allegations. Tony Gonsolin will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will be out of action into the 2024 campaign due to a postseason shoulder procedure.
Walker Buehler returns from his second Tommy John surgery to join Miller in the starting five. Los Angeles could bring in as many as three additional starters. Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone struggled to varying degrees. Dustin May won’t be ready for the start of the season as he works back from July flexor surgery. Ryan Pepiot only managed 42 MLB innings in a swing capacity this year thanks to an oblique strain sustained at the tail end of Spring Training. Ryan Yarbrough worked mostly in long relief upon being acquired from the Royals in a midseason trade.
There’s a clear need for both high-end talent and bulk innings. Lugo could provide some combination of the two. The Padres gave the right-hander his first extended rotation opportunity in six years. He responded with a 3.57 ERA across 26 starts. Lugo missed a month in the first half with a calf strain but otherwise stayed healthy and logged a personal-high 146 1/3 innings. He supported the solid run prevention with an above-average 23.2% strikeout percentage while only walking 6% of opponents.
That made it an easy call for Lugo to decline a $7.5MM player option. He’ll surely beat that salary and figures to secure a multi-year contract. Lugo turned 34 a couple weeks ago, so it won’t be a particularly long-term commitment. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported last week that Lugo was seeking three years.
MLBTR predicted Lugo to receive a three-year term at $14MM annually, ranking him 19th among free agents in expected earning power. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, a three-year term beginning in a starting pitcher’s age-34 campaign is rare but not unprecedented. There has been one such deal in each of the past two offseasons. Chris Bassitt secured a $63MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last winter; Sonny Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals on Monday. Lugo doesn’t have the multi-year track record of starting as those pitchers do, but that could be reflected in a lesser annual salary.
The Dodgers have shied away from long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. L.A. signed Kenta Maeda to an eight-year pact when he came over from Japan, but that was an incentive-laden deal with a modest $25MM guarantee. Otherwise, they haven’t gone past three years for a free agent starting pitcher — doing so for Rich Hill ($48MM), Kershaw ($93MM) and Trevor Bauer ($102MM).
That could change this offseason, given both the pitcher-heavy nature of the free agent class and the roster’s rotation issues. The Dodgers should have plenty of payroll room to add multiple starters on the open market. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 luxury tax commitments in the $168MM range, around $69MM below next year’s base threshold.
Royals Sign Garrett Hampson
The Royals announced that they have signed infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson to a one-year contract. Hampson will make a salary of $2MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.
Hampson, 29, spent the 2023 season with the Marlins in a utility capacity. He got into 98 games and stepped to the plate 252 times, striking out at a 26.6% clip and only hitting three home runs but he did draw walks 9.1% of the time. His .276/.349/.380 batting line was a hair above league average, translating to a wRC+ of 101, though his .379 batting average on balls in play was almost 60 points higher than his career rate in that department. That roughly average offensive production was actually a big step up from his time in Colorado, as Hampson slashed .233/.292/.369 for the Rockies from 2019 to 2022.
Hitting aside, Hampson can provide value in other ways. His sprint speed was considered by Statcast to be in the 98th percentile in 2023. He only stole five bases on the year but has 57 in his career. Defensively, he has spent time at all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, giving him plenty of versatility.
After the 2022 season, the Rockies non-tendered him instead of paying a projected $2.1MM salary. He then had to settle for a minor league deal with the Marlins and ended up having a decent campaign in a part-time role but it wasn’t enough for the Fish to keep him on the roster. He exhausted his final option year in 2023 and would have less roster flexibility going forward, so the Marlins opted not to tender him a contract at a projected rate of $1.3MM.
The Royals are willing to give him $2MM and a roster spot, presumably to utilize him in the same multi-positional role he has held so far in his career. The club has Bobby Witt Jr. implanted at shortstop but second base and third base have less certainty. Maikel Garcia is the favorite at the hot corner and has a good floor with his speed and defense, but he hit just four home runs in 515 plate appearances in 2023. Michael Massey could be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second after hitting 15 homers this year but his .274 on-base percentage was among the worst in the league last year. Center field has similar question marks after subpar offensive seasons from Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel.
In addition to those aforementioned areas, injuries will inevitably arise over the course of a 162-game season, creating holes elsewhere. Hampson can help fill in there or perhaps serve as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner, depending on how things shake up over the remainder of the offseason. Nick Loftin and Samad Taylor are also on the roster as utility options but they each have options and less than a year of service time.
Orioles To Hire Drew French As Pitching Coach
The Orioles are hiring Drew French to be their new pitching coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. French had previously been working as the bullpen coach in Atlanta.
French, 39, began his coaching career in college ball, serving various roles for Concordia University Texas, University of Alabama, Florida International University and Lee University. He was hired by the Astros in 2016 and worked in the minor leagues of that organization until getting hired as Atlanta’s bullpen coach prior to the 2021 season.
For the past three seasons, the Orioles have had Chris Holt working both as director of pitching and as pitching coach. He had the former role one year earlier, developing individualized pitching plans for both major league and minor league pitchers. But he also jumped into the dugout as pitching coach starting with the 2021 campaign. Perhaps the dual role was a bit much, as it was reported about a month ago that Holt would continue serving as director of pitching but not as pitching coach, with French now taking over in Brandon Hyde’s dugout. O’s general manager Mike Elias and Holt were both with the Astros prior to coming to Baltimore, their time in that organization overlapping with that of French.
This move will give Atlanta another vacancy to fill, with three recent departures. Third base/infield coach Ron Washington was named the manager of the Angels and later brought first base/outfield coach Eric Young Sr. with him to join his staff with the Halos.
Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade
Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.
With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.
Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.
Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.
Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.
The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).
At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.
Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.
If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.
Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.
Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…
Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.
Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.
Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).
D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.
Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.
Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.
Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.
Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.
Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.
Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.
Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.
Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.
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Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.
The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade
There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33MM salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.
President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.
It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.
What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?
Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Best Fits
- Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24MM shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
- Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50MM below the tax threshold. They’re within $7MM of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25MM south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
- Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4MM below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25MM away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
- Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
- Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52MM shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40MM south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.
Longer Shots
- Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
- Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
- Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
- Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7MM projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
- Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).
Payroll Questions
- Astros
- Brewers
- Guardians
- Marlins
- Pirates
- Rays
- Twins
While a $33MM salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and already right around their reported target area.
Other Priorities
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Tigers
Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that make them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.
The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push in to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.
Wrong Competitive Timeline
- A’s
- Nationals
- Royals
- White Sox
The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.
Cubs To Hire Ryan Flaherty As Bench Coach
The Cubs are expected to name Ryan Flaherty as their bench coach, reports Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic. Until recently, Flaherty had that same job with the Padres.
Flaherty, 37, played in the majors from 2012 to 2019 but then quickly transitioned into coaching. The Padres hired him as a quality control coach prior to the 2020 season and he subsequently became bench coach and offensive coordinator going into 2023.
He is clearly a respected voice around the league, as he has received plenty of attention around the league despite only finishing his playing career a few years ago. The Mets wanted to interview him for their bench coach gig prior to 2022 but the Friars denied that request. With manager Bob Melvin departing the Padres for the Giants this offseason, Flaherty was considered a candidate for the bench boss in San Diego but that job ultimately went to Mike Shildt. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Flaherty had one year left on his contract but was given permission to interview with other teams after the Shildt hiring.
It seems that Flaherty has decided to make a change after four years in San Diego. He will now jump to the Cubs, who have shaken up their staff by hiring Craig Counsell to replace David Ross as manager. Counsell will have Flaherty as his top lieutenant while the Padres will now have to make yet another hire, finding Shildt a replacement for the bench coach role.
Dodgers To Hire Nelson Cruz As Advisor
The Dodgers are hiring Nelson Cruz as an advisor, per a report from Tenchy Rodriguez of Z101. This was confirmed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, who adds that Cruz will be working for the organization in Latin America.
Cruz, 43, recently retired after spending almost two decades as one of the most potent sluggers in the league. From his debut in 2005 to his final season in 2023, he hit 464 home runs while playing for the Brewers, Rangers, Orioles, Mariners, Twins, Rays, Nationals and Padres. In addition to his work with MLB club, Cruz was also active in terms of international competition. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic in 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2023, also serving as the club’s general manager for the most recent of those tournaments. He’s also played winter ball in the Dominican Republic on numerous occasions.
It’s unclear exactly what his responsibilities will be, but Cruz has been around the game for a long time. By suiting up for so many different teams, both inside and outside MLB, he has surely made contact with hundreds of different players, coaches, scouts and other baseball personnel. The Dodgers will give him a chance to start the next phase of his career just a few weeks after retiring.
Erick Fedde Weighing Interest From KBO, MLB Clubs
Former Nationals first-round pick and top prospect Erick Fedde just wrapped up a dominant season with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos, which saw the 30-year-old righty take home league MVP honors in his first season overseas. He’s unsurprisingly drawn MLB interest on the heels of that performance, but Fedde will have to weigh that interest against a considerable raise from his incumbent team. Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports that Fedde has an offer in hand from the Dinos, which GM Sun-Nam Lim describes as the “best” possible offer his team can make “within the rules” of the KBO.
The KBO caps teams’ spending on foreign players, with first-year players able to earn a maximum of $1MM. Fedde earned that $1MM maximum in 2023. As Yoo further explains, KBO clubs are capped at $4MM to be divided among three foreign players. Each player they’re planning to re-sign for a subsequent season can increase that cap by $100K — up to a maximum of three players.
The maximum offer to Fedde, then, would be $4.1MM — although Lim did not expressly state such an offer has been made. Doing so would require forgoing other foreign signings entirely. It’s plenty feasible that Lim was suggesting they’ve offered what they feel is the most they can while still retaining enough pool space to sign two other foreign players on minimal commitments. Yonhap’s initial report indicates that the Dinos have offered Fedde “at least” one additional year; it’s plausible the team has put forth a multi-year deal, which could technically clock in at just over $4MM in AAV (again, if the Dinos are comfortable entirely forgoing other foreign additions). Near as we at MLBTR can recall, no KBO team has ever gone to such lengths to retain a foreign player. One source who has ample experience dealing with KBO clubs expressed serious doubt to MLBTR that a team would commit its whole pool to one player.
Fedde spoke with Yoo about the decisions he faces this winter, noting that it’s still early in the process and that he faces “so many unknowns” on the heels of leading the KBO in wins (20), strikeouts (209) and ERA (2.00). Fedde touted his faith in agent Scott Boras, voiced his appreciation for everything the Dinos have done for him, and suggested he’ll ultimately do what he feels is best for him and his family.
Fedde’s debut campaign in the KBO was nothing short of remarkable. He pitched 180 1/3 innings of 2.00 ERA ball, averaging six innings per outing along the way. He fanned 29.5% of his opponents against a 4.9% walk rate and recorded an enormous 70% ground-ball rate. KBO hitters don’t tend to focus on elevating the ball as much as their MLB counterparts, so it’s common to see larger ground-ball rates among pitchers there, but a 70% clip is nevertheless excellent.
Presumably, given the demand for starting pitching throughout MLB, Fedde will find guaranteed offers to return to the Majors. The former No. 18 overall pick climbed as high as No. 52 on Baseball America’s top-100 rankings prior to his MLB debut, so there’s certainly some track record and prospect pedigree that adds to his appeal for big league clubs.
Had he just enjoyed a strong season while following the same gameplan he did throughout his time in the Majors and in Triple-A, perhaps interest would be a bit more muted, with teams chalking up his success to facing lighter competition. That’s surely a factor, but Fedde also chatted with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post back in September about how he’s worked to change the shape of his breaking ball, change the release point on his heater, alter the grip on his changeup and adding a newly adopted sweeper to his repertoire. It’s a notable enough series of changes — particularly the incorporation of an entirely new offering — that Fedde will be viewed as a decidedly different pitcher than he was during his run with the Nats organization.
The extent to which teams are sold on the changes will obviously determine the strength of offers he’ll receive from MLB teams. In recent years, we’ve seen Merrill Kelly, Chris Flexen and Josh Lindblom parlay strong KBO showings into big league deals — Flexen after spending only one year in South Korea. We’ve not yet seen a former big league pitcher coming back from the KBO reach $10MM in guaranteed money, though Fedde’s performance was more dominant than Kelly and Flexen, and he’s three years younger than Lindblom (another former KBO MVP) was when he returned.
On the other hand, even if an MLB team is willing to offer something like two years and $10-12MM total, Fedde could also consider further betting on himself with another year leading the Dinos’ staff. If he were to repeat this performance or even show improvement, he could take home a healthy raise on this past year’s $1MM salary and then hit the open market next winter in search of a two-, three- or even four-year deal from an MLB club at a much heartier annual rate than is likely available to him right now.
It all boils down to a matter of risk tolerance for Fedde, who’ll have to weigh the options of maxing out on his earning power right now or taking a lesser 2024 contract in pursuit of a heftier deal next offseason. Regardless of which route he chooses, the mere fact that he’s in this position is a testament to the strength of his 2023 performance, which stands a clear-cut example of the earning upside players chase when taking their game overseas.
The Opener: Brewers, Trade Market, Reliever Of The Year
As the Winter Meetings approach, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Brewers facing big decisions:
Few teams in baseball are facing as wide an array of possible outcomes this offseason as the Brewers. After losing longtime manager Craig Counsell to the division rival Cubs and non-tendering injured ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this month, the club is facing major decisions on the futures of right-hander Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames, both of whom are slated to hit free agency after the 2024 season. In a recent poll of MLBTR readers nearly 78% of respondents suggested the club should move Burnes, who has spoken candidly about the lack of extension negotiations between the sides.
On the other hand, the club is the reigning NL Central champion and would likely have trouble fending off up-and-coming clubs like the Reds and Cubs next season if they were to lose both Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason. As Milwaukee brass ponders whether to maximize the club’s odds in 2024 or build for the long term, the club is simultaneously discussing a precedent-setting pre-debut extension with top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio, a move that could extend the club’s window of control over a potentially elite talent while accelerating his path to the majors.
2. When will the trade market for starters kick into motion?
Burnes isn’t the only noteworthy ace-caliber arm who could be on the trade market this offseason. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber have gotten plenty of buzz as likely trade candidates so far this offseason, with reports of interest from rival clubs ramping up in recent days. Could a team look to make an impact addition to their starting rotation ahead of the Winter Meetings, which begin on Sunday evening? The Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, and Reds are the clubs that have been most frequently connected to the front-of-the-rotation arms known to be available in trade, though plenty of teams would benefit from such an addition.
3. Reliever of the Year winners to be announced:
The winners of the league’s Reliever of the Year awards, named after Trevor Hoffman in the NL and Mariano Rivera in the AL, are set to be announced this evening at 5pm CT on MLB Network. The reigning winner of the award in the NL, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. That leaves the door wide open for other top arms such as left-handed free agent Josh Hader (1.28 ERA), Brewers righty Devin Williams (1.53 ERA), and Pirates right-hander David Bednar (2.00 ERA) to claim the award this season. Meanwhile, the AL’s top crop of relief arms this year features reigning winner Emmanuel Clase (3.22 ERA), who lead the league with 44 saves this season for the Guardians. However, the likes of Orioles righty Felix Bautista (1.48 ERA) and Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano (2.90 ERA) posted stronger run-prevention numbers than Clase this season.
Brewers Making Progress On Extension Talks With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio
Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.
Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.
It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.
Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.
It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.
As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.
There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.
If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.
If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.
Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta‘s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.
Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.