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MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency

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Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.

Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.

That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.

Do The Royals Have A Problem Behind The Plate?

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Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.

A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.

For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.

Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.

Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.

In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.

All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.

For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.

Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.

The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.

To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.

There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.

Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.

Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.

Pirates Designate Hoy Park For Assignment

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The Pirates announced they’ve designated infielder Hoy Park for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for first baseman Lewin Díaz, who has been claimed off waivers from the Marlins as previously reported.

Park landed in Pittsburgh alongside Diego Castillo in the increasingly regrettable deal that sent reliever Clay Holmes to the Yankees. Park had only appeared in one big league game with New York to that point, but he was sitting on an incredible .325/.475/.567 line in Triple-A. He looked like a plug-and-play middle infield option for the Bucs, but he never seized control of a spot in an uncertain second base mix.

The South Korea native hit .197/.299/.339 through 144 plate appearances down the stretch in 2021. He walked at a very strong 12.1% clip but didn’t make much of an impact on batted balls and struck out more than a quarter of the time he came to the plate. Park spent most of this past season as an upper minors depth infielder. He appeared in just 23 MLB games while suiting up 89 times at Triple-A Indianapolis.

In contrast to his incredible 2021 work at the minors’ highest level, Park hit .225/.332/.354 through 375 plate appearances there in 2022. He again showed a willingness to work deep counts, drawing walks at just shy of a 14% clip, and he was successful on all 14 of his stolen base attempts. Still, a 26.4% strikeout rate and a modest 10 home runs and 11 doubles contributed to a below-average offensive performance. He didn’t do much in his 60 MLB plate appearances this year, hitting .216/.276/.373 with a pair of longballs.

The Pirates are lacking a slam-dunk option to play second base after trading Kevin Newman to the division-rival Reds last week. General manager Ben Cherington recently told reporters they were open to addressing the position from outside the organization, and Park clearly had fallen to the bottom of the depth chart among their internal options. As things currently stand, Rodolfo Castro looks like the favorite to join Oneil Cruz in the middle infield, although Castillo and Ji Hwan Bae could battle for reps before accounting for any external pickups.

The Bucs will now have a week to trade Park or try to run him through waivers. His plate discipline and defensive flexibility could draw him some attention. He’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield, although he’s increasingly seen more time at second and third base than at shortstop. Park also has a bit of experience at each of the three outfield positions, making him a possible versatile left-handed bench bat. He’s yet to find much success against big league pitching, but he’s a career .250/.362/.368 hitter over parts of seven minor league seasons. Park still has a pair of option years remaining, so another team could stash him in the upper minors as depth if they’re willing to devote him a 40-man roster spot.

Brewers, Tobias Myers Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have signed Tobias Myers to a minor league contract, reports Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The right-hander had been outrighted and eventually released by the White Sox in September.

Myers is a former 6th-round draftee of the Orioles. He’s never pitched in the major leagues but he’s been a frequent depth target for teams over the past 12 months. Traded from the O’s to the Rays in 2017, he pitched his way up to Triple-A in the Tampa Bay farm system last year. He would’ve been eligible for the Rule 5 draft last winter if not added to the 40-man roster, and the Rays dealt him to the Guardians for infield prospect Junior Caminero. Cleveland immediately added him to the 40-man, but that’s a deal they’d surely like back in retrospect.

The 24-year-old Myers had a dismal 2022 campaign. He was tagged for a 6.00 ERA over 14 starts with the Guardians’ top affiliate, and Cleveland dealt him to the Giants for cash in early July. Caminero, on the other hand, had huge numbers between rookie ball and Low-A and was recently named the #8 prospect in a deep Rays system by Baseball America. Myers would make just two Triple-A appearances with San Francisco before being designated for assignment and lost on waivers to the White Sox. He threw seven times for Chicago’s top affiliate, allowing an eye-popping 24 runs in 13 innings, before being released.

Clearly, it was a season to forget for the Florida native. Myers combined for a 7.82 ERA in 76 Triple-A frames, allowing 15 home runs with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Still, he’s continued to intrigue a number of teams on the strength of his pre-2022 performance. During his final season in the Tampa Bay system, he combined for a 3.90 ERA across 117 2/3 innings with an excellent 30.5% strikeout percentage and just a 5.8% walk rate.

Milwaukee becomes the next team to take a shot at trying to get Myers back on track. He still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he can earn a 40-man roster spot, the Brewers could move him between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as either rotation or multi-inning relief depth.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option

Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tendered: Josh James

Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM

Free Agents

For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.

With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.

For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.

There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.

Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.

Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.

The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.

That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.

Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.

Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.

No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.

Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.

The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.

Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.

If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.

Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.

Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.

The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.

There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.

In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.

Details On Nick Martinez’s New Contract With Padres

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Nick Martinez opted out of his Padres contract at the end of the offseason but he and the club agreed to a new deal last week. The club made it official today by announcing the deal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic added some more information about the incentives.

As a recap, it’s technically a three-year, $26MM deal but with a convoluted structure. Martinez will get a $10MM base salary in 2023, which is the straightforward part. After that, the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. If they decline, Martinez will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. Since player options are considered guaranteed, that $16MM option and the $10MM base in 2023 combine to form a $26MM guarantee.

Adding some extra layers of complication are the incentives that Lin outlines, which reflect the uncertain role Martinez will play going forward. He started 2022 in the rotation but eventually got bumped to the bullpen, with his new contract seemingly accounting for a similar trajectory in 2023. Martinez will get paid based on games started, earning an extra $500K at 10, 15, 20 and 25 starts. In terms of relieving, he’ll get $100K at 10 appearances and 20 appearances, $200K at 30, 40, 50 and 60 appearances. For games finished, he will get $200K each at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 finishes.

That’s technically $4.4MM in available incentives, though there’s no way Martinez unlocks all of those. For instance, if he makes 25 starts, he’s unlikely to trigger many of the relief incentives, since a healthy pitcher will make about 32-33 starts over a full season. However, this contract allows Martinez to continue increasing his earnings whether he’s starting or relieving, so long as he’s healthy.

The aforementioned option values can also change, as Lin adds that there are escalators based on Martinez hitting certain innings totals, making the All-Star team or finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. Those details aren’t publicly known at this time.

Going forward, the Friars have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell taking up the first three spots in the rotation. Martinez is a candidate to take one of the spots at the back end, but subsequent moves by the team could push him to the bullpen. Last year, he posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all better out of the bullpen than the rotation.

Latest On Cubs’ First Base Plans

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The average batting line for first basemen in 2022 was .246/.320/.410, wRC+ of 107. For the Cubs, they used various players at the cold corner for a combined slash line of .232/.304/.348, wRC+ of 86, that latter stat being 24th out of the 30 MLB teams. Given that disparity, the Cubs will undoubtedly be looking for better production in 2023. They might have an in-house solution in Matt Mervis, though they will also be looking for external upgrades this winter. “He’s very much in our plans,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said about Mervis, per Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “But I think we’re also going to be active in exploring alternatives.”

Mervis has really exploded onto the scene in 2022. As mentioned in the piece linked above, he didn’t get drafted in either 2019 or 2020, eventually signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He played 72 minor league games in 2021, hitting at a below-average level.

2022 has been a completely different story, however. He began the season in High-A and completely mashed, producing a batting line of .350/.389/.650, wRC+ of 189. He got bumped to Double-A and hit .300/.370/.596 for a wRC+ of 148. After moving to Triple-A, his line was .297/.383/.593, 152 wRC+. Incredibly, his walk rate improved from 4.6% to 8.7% to 10.4% as he moved up the ladder, while his strikeout rate fell from 24.1% to 20% to 14.6%. The Cubs decided to keep the good times rolling by sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .262/.324/.590 in 17 games.

It’s not just the bat that has the Cubs excited either. “He’s more athletic than people think,” Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner said. “He knows his way around the bag at first base. He’s a nice, big target, and he actually grades out really well defensively. No concerns there.”

Despite that tremendous breakout season, it stands to reason that the Cubs don’t want to simply hand over the starting job to Mervis just based on that. “We’re thrilled with what he’s doing,” Hoyer said. “We know he’s a big part of where we’re going. But at the same time, we have to be cognizant of having real depth. Injuries and other things happen.”

With Mervis seemingly on the cusp of reaching the majors but not a guarantee to immediately succeed, it’s likely that the club will look for a short-term addition to first base. That way, should Mervis continue charging forward, he wouldn’t be blocked from securing the full-time job. The Cubs don’t really have a player locked into the designated hitter mix, so it’s possible that Mervis could co-exist on the roster with someone who will require a long-term deal like, say, Josh Bell. However, teams generally don’t like clogging up the DH spot and prefer to rotate players through there. That’s especially true of a team like the Cubs that’s still trying to give at-bats to young players and evaluate their capabilities against major league pitching. That being said, with no real lock for first or DH, the Cubs are one of the teams best suited to fit a bat-first player into their lineup.

MLBTR’s Top 50 had Josh Bell as the top available first baseman, predicted a contract of four years and $64MM, or $16MM per year. However, Jose Abreu was actually pegged for a higher contract in terms of average annual value: $40MM over two years. Abreu has a longer and more impressive track record but he’s more than five years older than Bell, hence the disparity. The White Sox seem set to let Abreu walk and replace him with Andrew Vaughn at first, and the Cubs have been reported to be interested in facilitating a crosstown move. Brandon Drury would be a sensible fit, if the Cubs are content with moving him to second or third base in the event Mervis takes over at first.

If the Cubs opt for a more short-term solution, players that can likely be had on one-year deals include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel or Wil Myers. There’s also the trade market, which could feature bats like Rowdy Tellez or Eric Hosmer. Tellez still has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a $5.3MM salary this year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Hosmer still has three years left on his deal but the Padres agreed to pay down everything but the league minimum when trading him to the Red Sox.

There are many different options available to the club and how they proceed will depend on how much faith they have in Mervis and how much they want to spend. Last year, the Cubs gave out a whole bunch of one-year deals to veterans, with Seiya Suzuki’s five years and Marcus Stroman’s three years (with an opt-out after two) the only multi-year deals.

Pirates Open To Adding Middle Infielder

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The Pirates’ middle infield is fairly open at the moment, with several talented young players who could eventually seize jobs on a more permanent basis but haven’t done so just yet. To that end, general manager Ben Cherington told members of the media, including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, that the club wouldn’t rule out another external addition.

“I think we want to create competition there certainly, whether it’s guys that are already here. Wouldn’t rule out adding an infielder, either,” Cherington said. “I would emphasize the competition, but there will be a runway to be part of that competition and continue to earn it.”

At first glance, the idea of Pittsburgh adding a depth infielder is a little odd since they just traded Kevin Newman to the Reds. That move opened up the path for younger players to seize playing time, but evidently left them not totally satisfied with their remaining options. There’s possibly a financial component, as Newman was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make an arbitration salary of $2.8MM, which the Bucs will no longer have to worry about. They could redirect some of those funds to replace Newman, while having added reliever Dauri Moreta, the return in the trade.

It doesn’t seem like bringing in a reinforcement is a must, just something that’s on the table as the club gauges the temperature of the offseason. That’s a fairly logical approach, since they do have plenty of in-house options, though they are written in pencil and not in ink. Oneil Cruz is now the clear top shortstop with Newman out of the picture. He has tantalizing tools, such as elite exit velocities, sprint speed and arm strength. However, he struck out in 34.9% of his plate appearances last year and has long faced questions about whether he and his 6’7″ frame can stick at short in the long run. The reviews in 2022 were mixed, as Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 1 while Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average were much more pessimistic, giving him a -.7.5 and -9, respectively.

The corners seem to be fairly set for next year, with Ke’Bryan Hayes at third and Ji-Man Choi at first. The latter is an impending free agent and a midsummer trade candidate, though perhaps today’s waiver claimee Lewin Diaz can take over at that point. Cruz seems likely to get some more time to continue the shortstop experiment for the near future, with several candidates on hand to take over a full-time second base job or utility role.

Rodolfo Castro had a solid showing this year, hitting 11 home runs and stealing five bases in just 71 games. He finished the year with a batting line of .233/.299/.427, which amounted to a wRC+ of 102, or 2% above average. He played between 19 and 32 games at each of second, third and short and is a switch-hitter, making him well-suited to a utility role. Though it’s also possible he separates himself from the pack and seizes the job at the keystone.

Ji Hwan Bae got a cup of coffee towards the end of the year, hitting well in 10 games while showcasing his speed. He added three steals at the big league level to go with the 30 he tallied in the minors prior to his call-up. He played some second base with the big league club but also center and left field.

Diego Castillo didn’t hit much last year but did play all four infield positions as well as right field. Hoy Park and Tucupita Marcano didn’t hit much either but both played the outfield corners and each infield position except for first base. Prospects Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales played both second and short at Double-A last year and could be factors in 2023.

The Pirates are obviously rebuilding and very few expect them to emerge as surprise contenders in 2023, which means this jumble will likely be straightened out as the season goes on. If they look into adding a more established player to the mix, they surely won’t be going after top free agents like Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. Even the next tier of free agents like Elvis Andrus, Jean Segura and Jose Iglesias will likely be looking for more secure jobs than just the placeholder gig in Pittsburgh. That means the Bucs will likely be in contact with options like Hanser Alberto, Yu Chang, Tyler Wade or Danny Mendick. On the trade market, guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Cavan Biggio could be available, though it’s also possible that Cherington keeps working the waiver wire.

Pirates Claim Lewin Diaz

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The Pirates have claimed first baseman Lewin Diaz off waivers from the Marlins, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link). Miami designated Diaz for assignment last week.

Diaz, 26, was a fairly high-profile amateur signing by the Twins back in 2013, inking a $1.4MM bonus and headlining their 2013-14 international free agency class. He ranked among Minnesota’s top prospects for several years due to his power potential and a plus glove at first base, but the Twins flipped him to Miami in a 2019 trade that netted them veteran reliever Sergio Romo and pitching prospect Chris Vallimont.

With the Marlins, Diaz elevated his profile early on before scuffling through parts of three Major League auditions. He’s logged big league time each season since 2020 but produced only a .181/.227/.340 batting line with a 28.9% strikeout rate against just a 5.5% walk rate. Despite his 6’4″ frame and considerable raw power potential, Diaz hasn’t yet hit the ball with much authority in the Majors; he does have 13 home runs in 343 plate appearances, but Diaz’s average exit velocity (88.1 mph), barrel rate (8%) and hard-hit rate (32.6%) are all pedestrian, at best. He’s also been quite prone to pop-ups, with more of his fly-balls (14.4%) registering as infield flies than as home runs (11.7%).

That said, Diaz only just turned 26 years old and has at least one demonstrably excellent skill that’ll play at the Major League level: his glove. He’s only logged 753 Major League innings at first base but still has eye-popping totals in Defensive Runs Saved (16) and Outs Above Average (9). The offensive profile is still quite clearly a work in progress, but Diaz is a .250/.325/.504 hitter in two Triple-A seasons. At his best, he’s tattooed right-handed pitching in the minors, creating some hope that he could at least be a platoon option for the Buccos.

Diaz is out of minor league options, so he’ll either have to break camp with the Pirates next spring or else be designated for assignment once again. If the Pirates at any point are able to succeed in passing him through waivers, Diaz could be retained without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster, though his glove alone might make that difficult.

Diaz is the second option the Bucs have acquired to potentially address their need at first base in the still-young offseason. Pittsburgh also acquired lefty-swinging Ji-Man Choi in a trade with the Rays, though Choi recently underwent elbow surgery. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. Diaz is the far superior defender between the two, so if he indeed earns a spot on the Opening Day roster next spring, that could push the 31-year-old Choi into the Pirates’ designated hitter slot. Between Diaz, Choi and late-season acquisition Miguel Andujar, the Pirates have a number of players who could vie for time at first base and designated hitter. Andujar’s right-handed bat would be a fine complement to either Diaz or Choi, and Andujar has ample experience in left field as well.

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