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NL East Notes: Dombrowski, Phillies, Duquette, Diaz, Mets, Ibanez

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Dave Dombrowski’s contract as the Phillies’ president of baseball operations runs through the 2024 season, and it contains a special clause that would allow him to leave if offered a job with an expansion team in Nashville.  However, in the wake of the Phils’ run to the NL pennant, there is obvious interest in keeping him in Philadelphia for many years to come, and an extension looks to be in the works.  “There’s not a chance that we’ll let him get away,” managing partner John Middleton told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Before Dombrowski finally agreed to speak with the Phillies in the 2020-21 offseason, Nightengale reports that the team had narrowed it search for a new front office boss down to Twins GM Thad Levine and former Orioles/Red Sox GM Dan Duquette.  Levine was known to be a top candidate at the time of the search, but Duquette wasn’t previously known to be on the Phillies’ radar at all.  Since parting ways with the Orioles after the 2018 season, Duquette was linked to the Pirates’ GM search before Pittsburgh hired Ben Cherington.

More from around the NL East…

  • Edwin Diaz is one of several prominent Mets players slated for free agency, but the Mets “believe they have the best chance to keep” Diaz of anyone in that top-tier group, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes.  Re-signing Diaz might well cost the Mets the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, but Diaz’s case for such a deal is pretty sound, considering his excellent performance.  Since an increasing number of teams are reluctant to pay top dollar for relievers, this could give the Mets something of an advantage in keeping the All-Star in the fold.
  • Also from Heyman, he reports that Raul Ibanez spoke with the Marlins about their managerial vacancy, though Ibanez took himself out of the hunt “due to family considerations.”  Ibanez has spent the last two seasons working with MLB as a senior VP of on-field operations, and previously worked as a special assistant in the Dodgers organization after retiring from his playing career.  Though he doesn’t have any managing or coaching experience, the widely-respected Ibanez has surfaced as a managerial candidate in the past, though he has consistently declined interviews.  Talking with the Marlins perhaps represents some softening on Ibanez’s stance, though since he lives in Miami, it is possible he saw this specific job as a unique opportunity.  The Marlins announced Skip Schumaker as their new skipper on Tuesday.

Brewers Outright Pablo Reyes To Triple-A, Re-Sign Andruw Monasterio

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The Brewers have outrighted utilityman Pablo Reyes to Triple-A, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link).  Milwaukee also re-signed infielder Andruw Monasterio to a minor league contract that contains an invitation to the Major League Spring Training camp.

Since Reyes was previously outrighted (as a member of the Pirates organization in 2020), he has the right to reject the Brewers’ assignment and become a free agent.  If he opts to remain, Reyes would be heading into his season in Milwaukee, after first signing a minors contract with the Brew Crew in the 2020-21 offseason.  He appeared in 53 big league games with Milwaukee in 2021, but made only five MLB appearances in 2022.

Reyes has mostly been used as a bench player and late game defensive fill-in, owing to his versatility — he has played every position except first base and catcher over his 147 career Major League games with the Pirates and Brewers.  Reyes has a .238/.307/.361 slash line over 323 plate appearances, as a nice initial burst at the plate during his 63-PA rookie season has failed to continue beyond the 2018 campaign.

The 25-year-old Monasterio has hit .264/.344/.355 over 2582 career PA in the minors, breaking in as a 17-year-old with the Cubs in 2014.  2022 was his first season in Milwaukee’s farm system, and he hit .271/.364/.406 over 437 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  The infielder has been involved in two prominent trades during his career, going from the Cubs to the Nationals as part of the Daniel Murphy swap in August 2018, and then going from Washington to Cleveland a few months later as part of the Yan Gomes trade package.

Phillies Announce World Series Roster

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The Phillies announced their 26-man roster for the World Series.  Aaron Nola will start Game 1 tonight against the Astros.

Two changes were made to the group that defeated the Padres in the NLCS.  Right-hander Nick Nelson and infielder Nick Maton have been added to the roster, replacing left-hander Bailey Falter and outfielder Dalton Guthrie.  Nelson was on the NLDS roster in place of the then-injured David Robertson, but Nelson will now take the spot of Falter, who was rostered for the entirety of Philadelphia’s postseason run.  Maton is back on the roster for the first time since the Wild Card Series, as Guthrie had been added for the NLDS and NLCS.

Neither Nelson or Maton have seen any action to date in the postseason, and Guthrie had one appearance as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement late in Game 3 of the NLDS.  Falter had the most prominent appearance as the starter of Game 4 of the NLCS, though it was slated to be more of an opener role.  Falter ended up retiring only two batters and was charged with four runs, though the Phillies rebounded from an early deficit for a 10-6 victory.

With the Astros so deep in right-handed bats, the Phillies felt the right-handed Nelson was the better option than the southpaw Falter, even though Nelson’s splits indicate that he has been slightly better against left-handed batters during his relatively brief (103 2/3 IP from 2020-22) career in the majors.  Likewise, the left-handed hitting Maton actually has better splits against lefties than righties over his 216 career plate appearances, but he’ll get the nod over Guthrie (a right-handed hitter).

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Astros Announce World Series Roster

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The Astros announced their 26-man roster for the World Series.  As previously announced, Justin Verlander will be the starting pitcher for Game 1 tonight against the Phillies.

Veteran left-hander Will Smith joins the roster, taking the place of right-hander Seth Martinez.  This is the first time Smith has been included in Houston’s playoff run, while Martinez was on the roster for the ALCS but didn’t pitch during the Astros’ four-game sweep of the Yankees.  Smith hasn’t pitched in a game since October 4, in Houston’s second-last outing of the regular season (by coincidence, that game was also against the Phillies).

Though there is a natural risk of rust after a pretty lengthy layoff for Smith, he also brings plenty of postseason experience, including a ring just last year with the Braves.  The southpaw was a force for Atlanta throughout the playoffs, throwing 11 innings over 11 games without allowing a single run.  As MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, Smith also has a strong track record against Philadelphia’s left-handed batters — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott are a collective 2-for-20 against Smith.  Harper has the only two hits over his 14 at-bats against Smith, and since Harper has been on a tear throughout the playoffs, the Astros seem to be eyeing Smith as a way of trying to neutralize the NLCS MVP.

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Steve Cohen Says Mets Aren’t Pursuing David Stearns

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David Stearns has long been considered a Mets target, as the Brewers twice rejected requests from Mets owner Steve Cohen to speak with Stearns about New York’s front office vacancies in the last two years.  When Stearns stepped down yesterday as Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations, speculation quickly arose about Sterns’ future and whether or not a move to New York could be in the offing, though Cohen has seemingly closed the door on the possibility.

Speaking with SNY’s Andy Martino, Cohen reiterated that general manager Billy Eppler “is in charge” of the Mets front office, and that the club is “focused on other things right now” than a pursuit of Stearns.

Cohen’s statement tracks with other recent reports suggesting that Eppler isn’t in danger of being replaced, as the positives of the Mets’ 101-win regular season look to have outweighed the disappointment of the club’s early playoff exit in the Wild Card Series.  The Mets are still looking for a new team president, but were reportedly looking to hire a business-oriented executive for the role, leaving Eppler running baseball operations.

Of course, speculation linking Stearns and the Mets isn’t likely to end until Stearns takes a job with another team, the Mets hire a new president, or perhaps until Eppler is given a president of baseball operations title.  (While clubs can use several different titles for their top front office decision-maker, Eppler’s status as “only” a GM does leave some wiggle room for a president of baseball ops to be installed above him.)  In fact, Martino feels Cohen will eventually interview Stearns down the road, though Martino also writes that “Mets people have long insisted that the link between Cohen and Stearns has been overstated for the past year.”

For his part, Stearns said that he isn’t joining another team, and that his decision to step away from Milwaukee’s PBO job was based on a desire to step back from the daily grind of running a Major League team.  Though he’ll remain as a consultant with the Brewers, Stearns said he is “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests.”

There is also the practical matter of Stearns’ contract, which runs through the end of the 2023 season.  Stearns and Brewers owner Mark Attanasio discussed the situation (with MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters) in somewhat oblique terms at yesterday’s news conference, saying that there was some type of arrangement in place should another team ask to interview Stearns about another job.

Because Stearns is a contracted employee, Attanasio is under no official obligation to allow the Mets or any team to speak with Stearns.  As an MLB official tells The Athletic’s Will Sammon, the league would have to approve any attempt on another’s team part to essentially purchase Stearns’ contract for cash.  Perhaps not wanting to set precedent, “MLB would likely prefer the two sides strike a trade involving players,” Sammon writes.  Trades involving non-player personnel are rare but not entirely uncommon.  For instance, the Red Sox received two players (Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz) from the Cubs as compensation for letting Theo Epstein out of the the final year of his contract to become Chicago’s new president of baseball operations, with prospect Jair Bogaerts also dealt from the Cubs to the Sox as part of the swap.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays returned to the postseason, yet were eliminated after a devastating collapse in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.  Toronto may now face some tough decisions in how to best take the next step forward as a contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Obligations

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

By the numbers, Toronto had one of the league’s best offenses, though the lineup was also prone to lengthy and almost team-wide cold streaks.  While any team would be challenged by an in-form Luis Castillo, the Jays’ offensive inconsistency surfaced in Game 1 when they scattered only seven hits in a 4-0 shutout loss.  In Game 2, an 8-1 lead after five innings seemed safe in the hands of a bullpen that had been pretty solid all season.  However, “pretty solid” wasn’t good enough, as the Mariners roared back from the 8-1 deficit and then a 9-5 deficit to secure the 10-9 victory.

While two playoff games don’t erase the 92 wins of the regular season, the specific nature of the two WCS losses underlined weaknesses that lingered all year.  And, with only a 35-39 mark against teams with a winning record, the Jays had a tendency to come up short against tougher competition during the regular season as well.

Some of those issues were solved when Charlie Montoyo was fired as the team’s manager on July 13, as the Blue Jays played better under interim manager John Schneider (46-28) than under Montoyo (46-42).  This was enough to earn Schneider a three-year contract as the team’s proper manager, and now Schneider, GM Ross Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and the rest of the Jays brain trust has to identify and patch up these flaws in the would-be strengths of the lineup and bullpen.

In addition, there’s also the more immediate issue of a short-handed pitching staff.  Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah form a strong 1-2 punch atop the rotation, but then the questions start.  Jose Berrios was very inconsistent in posting a 5.23 ERA (but also a more respectable 4.13 SIERA) over 172 innings, and since the righty is already locked up to a pricey extension signed last winter, the Jays can only hope that Berrios can get on track going forward.  Yusei Kikuchi pitched so poorly that he lost his rotation spot, Mitch White wasn’t much better as Kikuchi’s replacement, and Hyun-Jin Ryu will be a later-season addition, at best, after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June.

There also isn’t any obvious and immediate help on the farm, given such uninspiring depth options as Casey Lawrence, Thomas Hatch, or Bowden Francis.  Former top prospect Nate Pearson had another injury-plagued season and now looks ticketed for a multi-inning relief role rather than starting work.  Current top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann has plenty of promise but only had a handful of Double-A outings, while Yosver Zulueta made it to Triple-A yet is still battling significant control issues.  These promising youngsters may indeed play a role for the 2023 Jays, but not by Opening Day.

With all of this rotation turmoil, Ross Stripling was one of the team’s unsung heroes of 2022.  After Ryu was injured, Stripling moved into the rotation for good, and he finished the season with a 3.01 ERA and an elite 3.7% walk rate over 134 1/3 innings.  This excellent control helped Stripling offset a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate, and Stripling also got a bit of batted-ball luck in the form of a .269 BABIP.

Stripling is now a free agent and will be looking for his first multi-year payday as he enters his age-33 season.  Though he has worked mostly as a swingman throughout his career and his overall results as a starter are somewhat hit-or-miss, Stripling’s success in 2022 and the league-wide need for pitching will earn him a good contract on the open market.

While Stripling’s price tag won’t be excessive, re-signing the right-hander might require the Blue Jays to outbid several other teams, and to make another notable investment in their pitching staff.  It doesn’t help that Ryu ($20MM), Kikuchi ($10MM) and even Berrios ($15MM) are taking up such a sizeable chunk of the payroll, even though the Jays don’t know what they’ll really be getting from any of the trio in 2023.

If not Stripling, at least one more starter will have to be acquired, and perhaps two if the Blue Jays don’t want to risk giving a rotation spot to either of Kikuchi or White on a full-time basis.  The Jays have had some notable successes (e.g. Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Stripling) in acquiring starters during Atkins’ tenure, but with just as many misfires (Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Kikuchi through one year), there is certainly risk involved in targeting another rebound candidate.  But, given the money already committed to the rotation, shopping at the top of the market doesn’t seem likely.

Or, does it?  The Jays have greatly increased their payroll as the team has become more competitive over the last two seasons, with a club record of roughly $171MM committed to the Opening Day roster.  That record is already on its way to being broken in 2023, as projections from Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts set the Jays’ payroll at around $192MM, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of approximately $217MM — within striking distance of the $232MM tax threshold.

That payroll number will likely drop at least a little due to some non-tender decisions.  (Raimel Tapia, for instance, generated only 0.2 fWAR last season, so his $5.2MM projected arbitration salary is steep.)  Since the Blue Jays have never really been close to the tax threshold before, it remains to be seen if ownership considers the CBT as an upper limit on payroll, or if they would be willing to spend beyond the threshold in the right circumstance.

Justin Verlander gave serious consideration to signing with Toronto last winter.  Now that the ace is certain to test free agency again, would the Jays realistically be able to offer the type of deal (maybe a $40MM average annual value) it could take to pry Verlander away from the Astros or other suitors?  If not Verlander, perhaps another top-of-the-rotation arm like Carlos Rodon could be feasible.

Moving away from the pitching side, could the Jays even get involved in the shortstop market?  Given how public defensive metrics painted a grim picture of Bo Bichette’s glovework in 2022, the Blue Jays could shake up their lineup by moving Bichette to second base and signing one of Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, or longtime AL East foe Xander Bogaerts.

Since we don’t know how far ownership is willing to go with payroll, it may be prudent to not count on too many splashy signings.  Also, it is possible the Jays might need some future payroll space earmarked for possible extensions for Manoah, Bichette, and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  If big free-agent moves might not be in the cards, the trade market could be the answer to the Blue Jays’ issues.

The farm system has lost some depth due to past trades, and Toronto will likely be hesitant to further deplete its prospect stock in any meaningful way (i.e., the likes of Tiedemann probably won’t be available).  While Atkins has downplayed the idea of moving a player from the current core, that might be the most realistic way for the Blue Jays to make an impactful addition to the rotation, bullpen, or perhaps at another position in the lineup.

Between Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and star prospect Gabriel Moreno, the Blue Jays have perhaps the most catching depth of any team in baseball.  This trio became even more valuable in 2022, after Kirk reached the All-Star team, Jansen posted an .855 OPS and 15 home runs over 248 plate appearances, and Moreno looked solid in his first 25 games in the big leagues.  Moreno’s potential as a multi-position player could mean that the Jays don’t need to make a decision on their catching corps just yet, but trading a catcher has long seemed like Toronto’s most logical route to landing a big trade target.

Any number of clubs could use reliable catching help, but the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Marlins stand out as teams who both need catching, and who have been frequent trade partners with Toronto in recent years.  It seems less likely that Moreno would be the one dealt, since clubs rarely move prospects of his pedigree.  But, moving Kirk or Jansen could land the Blue Jays a controllable starting pitcher, or an everyday second baseman, or perhaps an outfielder to play center field or one of the corners.

As for the players already in those positions, some plausible trade chips could be placed on the table.  Both Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be free agents after the 2023 season, and the Jays may need to open up a corner outfield spot sooner rather than later for Springer, for both health and defensive reasons.  Springer is probably still the best bet up the middle for 2023, though Whit Merrifield might get some time in center field as part of a super-sub role, or one of Jackie Bradley Jr. or Bradley Zimmer could be brought back as defensive depth.

If the Blue Jays do need to create some room in the budget for other additions, Hernandez’s projected $14.1MM arb salary could increase his chances of being traded.  On the other hand, Hernandez has a lot more power and general consistency than Gurriel, so Hernandez might be the preferred option for a Jays team trying to win in 2023.  Whatever a decision could be, it doesn’t seem like both Gurriel and Hernandez (or maybe even either) will receive contract extensions, especially not if the Jays are also trying to lock up Guerrero and company.  If one or both of these outfielders aren’t in Toronto’s long-term plans, a trade this offseason might be the best answer.

The Jays might also look into dealing from their second base mix of Merrifield, Santiago Espinal, and Cavan Biggio, if they plan to deploy Merrifield in more of an everyday role.  The 2022 campaign was the worst statistical season of Merrifield’s career, though he hit significantly better after the Blue Jays acquired him from the Royals.  Depending on how much Toronto intends to use Merrifield in the outfield as well as second base, the Jays could dangle Espinal or Biggio in trade talks, and give rookie Otto Lopez a longer look in the infield picture.

As noted, Toronto’s lineup was quite potent last season, so there is a limit to how much of a shake-up the front office needs (or wants) to make.  But, moving at least one regular create rooms for the Jays to diversify their lineup, whether that’s adding speed, more athleticism, or one or two left-handed everyday bats to a very right-handed batting order.  The 2022 Jays had a regular lineup that was almost entirely right-handed and a bench that was almost entirely left-handed, with lefty swingers like Tapia, Biggio, Bradley, and Zimmer providing subpar offense.

The bullpen also tilted to the right-hand side, as Tim Mayza was the only southpaw who received significant innings last year.  Adding another reliable left-hander is one obvious need, and Atkins has noted that the Jays will also look to add another power arm to a bullpen that was middle-of-the-pack in strikeouts.  Anthony Bass and David Phelps both pitched well last year, so the Blue Jays are likely to exercise their club option on Bass and at least look into re-signing Phelps in free agency.

The front office hasn’t traditionally invested big dollars into the relief market, though they have been aggressive in adding new arms via multiple trades over the last few seasons.  It’s probably safe to expect that same strategy this winter, though the Jays will have more difficulty in picking and choosing which relievers to keep from what was (the playoff meltdown notwithstanding) a decent bullpen.

While just getting back to the postseason was no small feat in the wake of the Jays’ near-miss in 2021, their playoff trips in both 2020 and 2022 have yet to yield a single win, let alone a series victory.  The 2022 campaign revealed that the Blue Jays have to find ways to improve — both to just keep up with the ever-competitive AL East, and to establish themselves as a true threat in October.

Marlins Expected To Turn To Trade Market For Center Field Help

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On Tuesday, the Marlins named former infielder and Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker the sixteenth manager in team history. Schumaker (a first-time professional manager) will take over a club that scored the fewest runs in the NL in 2022, but also features some of the best young pitching talent in the league. Now that they have their manager, GM Kim Ng is expected to concentrate her efforts on reviving the Marlins’ anemic offense.

Currently, the Marlins’ biggest question mark is in center field. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald  writes that Miami is likely to attempt to use some of their starting pitching depth to trade for an established center fielder. Jackson offers Michael A. Taylor and Adolis Garcia as two options that Miami could potentially pursue.

Garcia, in particular, would present a substantial offensive upgrade from the Marlins’ current group of center fielders. Garcia will not be a free agent until 2027 and has already proven himself to be a legitimate big league bat, belting 27 home runs, stealing 25 bases, and posting a wRC+ of 112 in 2022. Though Garcia spent more time in right field last season, he has played almost as many MLB games in center (137) as he has in right (151).

If Miami is not able to land a new center fielder, it is likely that they will open spring training with a competition between Jesus Sanchez or Bryan De La Cruz for the starting job. After a strong showing in 2021 (.808 OPS, 14 homes in 64 games), Sanchez was demoted to Triple-A Jacksonville, finishing the season with a MLB slash of .214/.280/.403. De La Cruz may have a bit of momentum heading into 2023, having hit .310 in the second half of 2022 and .388 in September/October. Sanchez has rated more highly in a small-sample defensive look between the two players.

It seems unlikely that Miami would splurge on the free agent market to land a center fielder. As of now, the Marlins have $41.8MM in guaranteed money for 2023. Arbitration figures project to push Miami’s payroll just south of $80MM. This will be nearly equivalent to their 2022 opening day payroll of about $79MM, and while some trades or non-tenders could free up a bit of spending space, the Fish could have a hard time making a splash on the open market. Jackson has previously reported owner Bruce Sherman would likely be comfortable with a modest increase in payroll, though it’s hard to image such an increase that would accommodate the market value of someone like soon-to-be free agent Brandon Nimmo. With a rather thin class of free agent options available, looking to trade possibilities to address center field could be the preferred outcome for Ng and her staff.

Large Gap Remains Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers In Extension Talks

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The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.

Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.

Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.

During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.

In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).

With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.

12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.

This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.

At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.

Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.

At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.

That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.

Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.

While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.

That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.

Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.

Phillies Agree To Extension With Third Base Coach Dusty Wathan

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The Philadelphia Phillies have agreed to a multi-year contract extension with third base coach Dusty Wathan, reports Robert Murray of Fansided.com (via Twitter). Wathan, age 49, has served as Philadelphia’s third base coach since he was named to Gabe Kapler’s staff in November of 2017.

Wathan is a former professional catcher who played a total of three games for the Royals in his only big league season in 2002. On his way to the Majors, he logged over 3000 minor league at-bats. After retiring as a player in 2007, he began his coaching career in 2008, when he was named manager of the Williamsport Crosscutters, the Phillies’ former Class-A (Short Season) team. Wathan continued on to spend years as the manager of the Clearwater Threshers (Phillies’ Class-A Advanced, the Double-A Reading Fightin’ Phils, and the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs before being promoted to the Phillies’ coaching staff.

Wathan’s extension takes him out of the running for the various current big league managerial openings. NBC Sports Philadelphia reported that Wathan met with the Marlins before they hired Skip Schumaker and interviewed with the Royals as recently as October 20. He had also been a finalist for the Phillies’ job in the 2017-2018 offseason before Philadelphia hired Kapler.

News of Wathan’s extension comes on the eve of Philadelphia’s first World Series appearance since 2009. With an extension that is reportedly for multiple years, it appears that Wathan will remain with the Phillies long beyond the fall classic.

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