Click here to read the transcript of our Royals-centric reader chat, in conjunction with the recently-published Royals Offseason Outlook entry.
Red Sox Rumors: Reynolds, Senga, Murphy, Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are the latest club to show interest in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. Reynolds is one of a few names on the trade radar for the Sox early in the offseason, as Speier reports that the Red Sox have looked into the Diamondbacks’ group of left-handed hitting outfielders, and Boston is also expected to again check in with the Athletics about catcher Sean Murphy.
Public defensive metrics were down (-3.2 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average, -14 Defensive Runs Saved) on Reynolds’ work in center field in 2022, yet with Enrique Hernandez perhaps lined up anyway as Boston’s top center field choice, the Sox could have an eye on moving Reynolds into a corner outfield spot at Fenway. His bat should play anywhere, as Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 homers over 614 plate appearances with the Pirates last season. With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has been a decidedly above-average bat in his four years in the majors, even if his center field defense has been more of a mixed bag.
Adding Reynolds would be an ideal solution for a Red Sox team looking for more power in general, and with a specific need in the outfield. Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and journeyman Rob Refsnyder line up as the current starting outfield, with unproven prospect Jarren Duran and a few utility options as depth. If Reynolds was obtained for a corner outfield spot, Refsnyder would likely be pushed to a bench spot; if Reynolds still played center field, the versatile Hernandez might be see more work at second base. Since Verdugo has also been floated as a potential trade candidate, however, a bigger outfield shake-up could be a possibility.
Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy are all left-handed bats primed for regular duty in Arizona, creating a bit of a surplus the D’Backs could use to fill other roster needs. Thomas and McCarthy are seen as the likeliest to be moved, though it isn’t known which names the Sox might have directly asked about. None of the quartet are as established as Reynolds, yet all have shown intriguing potential either as prospects or early in their Major League careers.
D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen has stated that his team would want MLB-ready talent for any of the outfielders, yet the asking price for an Arizona outfielder wouldn’t be as cumbersome as the Pirates’ demands for Reynolds, which are known to be enormous. It would only take one big offer to perhaps change the mind of Pirates GM Ben Cherington (who formerly ran Boston’s front office), and yet roughly half the teams in baseball have been linked to Reynolds over the last year-plus, with no movement on the trade front. By this point, several pundits have opined that Reynolds won’t be dealt, as the Pirates hope to return to contention before Reynolds hits free agency following the 2025 season.
Murphy is in something of a similar situation, as he is also arb-controlled through the 2025 campaign. While the A’s are in an earlier point in their latest rebuild and catching prospect Shea Langeliers is waiting in the wings, Oakland is under no direct pressure to move Murphy for anything less than a major trade package. Speier cites Brayan Bello as the type of top-tier, MLB-ready younger player the Athletics want as the headliner in a Murphy trade, though it isn’t clear if the A’s wanted Bello specifically in any earlier talks between the Red Sox and A’s prior to the trade deadline. If this was the case, that deal might be a no-go, as Speier writes that “Bello borders on untradeable” from Boston’s perspective.
Speaking of untouchable players, the Red Sox also inquired about Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks have told clubs that Gallen isn’t available. Pitching is another need on Boston’s winter shopping list, and Speier figures the Sox to be among the many suitors for Kodai Senga since they “were among many teams to scout him heavily” in Japan. The Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, and Angels have already been linked to Senga’s market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeting earlier today about the Angels’ interest. Senga is free of his NPB commitments, so an interested Major League team can negotiate with him like any free agent, without the obstacle of the posting system.
Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ “Win-Now Mode” Offseason
Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) at the GM Meetings about some of Baltimore’s winter plans, as the club looks to build on its surprising 83-win season. While Elias noted that “we’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” he left no doubt that the O’s are moving beyond their multi-year rebuild strategy.
“Our objective this winter is to add to the major league roster for the purpose of getting into the playoffs. We think that this team is ready to, hopefully, incrementally take steps forward. We’re in win-now mode.”
This means adding some established big league talent to a roster that is still pretty young and short on experience. However, between these younger players and other top prospects coming up from a deep minor league pipeline, Elias noted that “we have internal players at almost every spot that we think are interesting, and I think that provides us with some flexibility with which players we go after. We’ve got some positional flexibility with our current group and that makes for a scenario where we don’t have a very specific recipe of which positions the players have to come in.”
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored some of Baltimore’s options in his recent Offseason Outlook piece, such as an infield picture that has Gunnar Henderson (who could play third base, second base, or shortstop) as the only true sure thing heading into 2023. On paper, the Orioles could stand pat with a starting infield of Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Ryan Mountcastle, with the latter three players perhaps somewhat acting as placeholders until the next wave of infield prospects are ready. Or, Baltimore could acquire a new everyday option at one of the infield spots, perhaps by trading from that infield surplus.
The rotation is perhaps an easier fit for a new veteran, especially since Jordan Lyles’ club option was declined. As Elias noted, “we’ve got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters. If we’re able to go out this winter and get more veteran certainty, that would be big. We’re going to be out in the market for that, for sure.”
Re-signing Lyles also isn’t out of the question, as Elias reiterated that the Orioles’ decision to decline the right-hander’s $11MM option was more about timing than any dissatisfaction with Lyles’ performance. “This is a big business with big money, and sometimes it just doesn’t line up at the date that we have to make these decisions,” Elias said. “For us, with this contract with this club option, it was the fifth day after the World Series and we just weren’t ready to bring him back in that way in that point in time….I think that he’s going to have a very good free agent experience himself, and we’ll just stay in touch because I know he liked it here and we liked having him.”
Phillies Extend Hitting Coach Kevin Long
The Phillies have signed hitting coach Kevin Long to a contract extension that runs through the 2025 season, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). Long just completed his first season in Philadelphia, joining the team last winter after a four-year stint as the Nationals’ hitting coach.
Most coaches operate on year-to-year contracts, yet the extra amount of security for Long reflects both the high regard for his work around the league, and the Phillies’ interest in keeping other teams from poaching the 55-year-old for other jobs. Long has been mentioned as a possible managerial candidate, and looking at his past jobs, the Nationals needed a three-year commitment to first sign him away from the Mets following the 2017 season.
Long has been a lead hitting coach in each of the last 16 seasons, working with the Yankees from 2007-14, the Mets from 2015-17, Washington from 2018-2021, and last year in Philadelphia. That tenure has resulted in two World Series rings (with the Yankees in 2009 and Nationals in 2019), as well as two other pennant-winning clubs.
After falling two games shy of the World Series, it isn’t surprising that the Phillies want to keep Long in the fold. Philadelphia hitters finished in or near the top 10 in most team-wide offensive categories, and Phillies hitters combined for a 106 wRC+ (tenth-best of any team in baseball). While the Phils already had plenty of established veteran bats in the lineup, they also received strong work from youngsters Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, which could be chalked up to Long’s tutelage. Manager Rob Thomson and Long have a lengthy working relationship, dating back to their shared days on the Yankees’ coaching staff.
Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals
After a leadership change in both the dugout and in the front office, the Royals are taking their rebuild in a new direction.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Salvador Perez, C: $64MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026; $2MM of salary is deferred)
- Hunter Dozier, IF/OF: $17.25MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
- Michael A. Taylor, OF: $4.5MM through 2023
Total 2023 commitments: $31.75MM
Total future commitments: $86.75MM
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Amir Garrett (5.099): $2.6MM
- Adalberto Mondesi (5.088): $3MM
- Brad Keller (5.000): $7MM
- Scott Barlow (4.030): $4.9MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.002): $1.5MM
- Nicky Lopez (3.139): $3.4MM
- Taylor Clarke (3.120): $1.5MM
- Josh Staumont (3.072): $1MM
- Brady Singer (2.156): $2.9MM
- Kris Bubic (2.135): $1.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Mondesi, O’Hearn, Keller, Clarke, Garrett
Free Agents
J.J. Picollo has worked in the Royals’ front office since 2006 and he was promoted to the GM job just over a year ago, so it isn’t as though the Royals made a completely fresh start when he took over the baseball operations department from the fired Dayton Moore back in September. But, if perhaps not a new book entirely, owner John Sherman is at least looking to start a new chapter in the wake of the team’s seventh consecutive non-winning season. Even after the front office spent some extra money during the 2020-21 offseason, K.C. has yet to turn a corner, following up a 74-88 season in 2021 with an even more disappointing 65-97 record last year.
Naturally, Picollo bears some of the responsibility for these results as Moore’s second-in-command. But now Picollo will get a chance to take full control over the Royals’ operations, and many of his initial moves have pointed towards changes. Manager Mike Matheny and pitching coach Cal Eldred were fired, while former bench coach Pedro Grifol will also be moving on as the new White Sox manager.
Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson, and Triple-A manager Scott Thorman were among the interview candidates for Kansas City’s own managerial vacancy, yet as Picollo told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters, “after we got through that initial round, able to talk to our committee of people about what we needed, we felt like what we needed at this time was to get a little bit of outside influence. Fresh thoughts. And challenge us professionally.” As such, the Royals hired Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as their next skipper, with Quatraro taking his first MLB managerial post after years of working in various coaching and instructional roles at both the Major League and minor league levels in Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
With Quatraro and what is likely to be a significantly different coaching staff in place in 2023, it is also possible Picollo might look to make more changes within baseball operations, both on the big league staff and in the scouting and player development departments. Moore’s front office made some similar moves back in 2019, but as illustrated by Rustin Dodd, Alec Lewis, and Andy McCullough of The Athletic, those changes have thus far failed to solve the Royals’ biggest issue — how to develop their young pitchers into viable MLB-caliber starters.
Specifically, the new pitching coach will be tasked with getting Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar on track. Albeit under relatively short sample sizes, none of the trio of former Day One picks has shown much at the big league level. Even with Brady Singer (the 18th overall pick of the 2018 draft) breaking out with a quality season, the struggles of the other young starters contributed to a poor year overall for the K.C. rotation.
While the Royals certainly aren’t giving up on their young arms, the first step might be to put less pressure on them to perform, as Picollo has stated Kansas City is looking to add some veteran pitching to the rotation. To that end, the Royals reportedly have interest in bringing Zack Greinke back for what would be his 20th Major League season. Greinke’s one-year, $13MM free agent deal was the highlight of the Royals’ last offseason, and he delivered a 3.68 ERA over 137 innings during his age-38 season.
Advanced metrics weren’t as keen on Greinke’s work. His 4.78 xERA reflected his subpar hard-hit ball numbers, and his 12.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of any hurler in baseball with at least 130 innings pitched. Greinke’s walk rate remains among the game’s best, but the rest of his numbers are troubling enough that if his control even drops from elite to good, it might lead to a big downturn in results.
Between Greinke’s track record, his long history in Kansas City, and his unique brand of clubhouse mentorship, the Royals might be willing to take the risk on the right-hander’s age-39 season, even at the cost of another eight-figure contract. Even if Greinke does get some interest from other teams (who could offer a chance to play for a contender), his price tag might not reach $13MM again, increasing his chances of a possible return to the Royals.
Singer is essentially the only true lock for the 2023 rotation, as Picollo’s ideal might be a starting five of Singer, Lynch, Bubic, two veterans, and then Kowar, Jonathan Heasley, Max Castillo, Angel Zerpa, and Jonathan Bowlan as depth starters. If a veteran starter is traded at the deadline, that opens up more innings for one of the depth pitchers, if a rotation spot hasn’t already been created by injuries or a lack of production.
Kansas City’s rotation struggled enough last year it doesn’t seem feasible Picollo would just bring the whole group back while hoping a new pitching coach can figure things out. If the Royals did re-sign Greinke, that would seem to hint against a complete reunion of the 2022 staff, meaning Brad Keller could be traded or non-tendered. Keller seemed to be turning into a K.C. building block after a solid first three seasons, yet he didn’t pitch well in either 2021 or 2022, though he did at least seem to be on track last year before a late-season breakdown cost him his starting job entirely.
At a projected arbitration cost of $7MM, Keller might be too pricy for the Royals to retain, as they could pursue another veteran with more upside at a comparable or even lesser cost. Since the right-hander drew some attention before the trade deadline, Kansas City could see if any of those interested teams have more faith in a Keller turn-around, as he has at least shown he can eat innings.
Keller is one of a few familiar names who could be plausible non-tender candidates. Ryan O’Hearn appears to have fallen out of favor, especially with Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto ready for a longer look in the first base/DH roles. Amir Garrett and Josh Staumont both struggled in 2022, but given their ability to miss bats, they could be the types of relievers the Royals hope could be fixed under the watch of a new pitching coach. Like the rotation, the bullpen also struggled last season, yet K.C. is more apt to hope for some turn-arounds or internal solutions rather than make any big expenditures on relief pitching.
The Royals’ difficulties after winning the 2015 World Series could perhaps best be symbolized by Adalberto Mondesi, who has gone from cornerstone to possible non-tender. Since debuting in 2016, however, Mondesi has only 358 Major League games played (the equivalent of a little more than two full seasons) due to a litany of injuries. In 2022, Mondesi played in only 15 games before suffering a torn ACL.
Back in 2021, Moore had already indicated Mondesi might not be any more than a part-time player, and a major injury like an ACL tear only adds further doubt for a player whose game is built around speed and athleticism. Mondesi’s $3MM arb projection isn’t a huge sum, but it is possible the Royals are done waiting on a player who turns 28 years old next season.
Between Mondesi, O’Hearn, and Hunter Dozier, multiple players the Royals once hoped would be part of their next winning team could be replaced entirely by a fresh set of faces. Dozier’s contract naturally gives him some security, and his ability to play both corner infield and corner outfield spots makes him a viable player to be bounced around the diamond as circumstances dictate. With Bobby Witt Jr. expected to resume everyday shortstop duty, Dozier’s best path to regular playing time might be third base, but he won’t get a guaranteed job anywhere if he can’t improve upon his below-average hitting numbers over the last three seasons.
Dozier and defensive standout Nicky Lopez could potentially split time at third base, or perhaps provide cover for younger players at other positions — whether that’s Pasquantino and Pratto at first base/DH, or Michael Massey at second base. Maikel Garcia and Nate Eaton also figure to be part of the infield picture, and could push Dozier more towards outfield than infield duty.
The outfield mix is only slightly more stable, with MJ Melendez, Michael A. Taylor, and Drew Waters tentatively penciled into the starting jobs. Taylor is another player who drew some calls at the trade deadline, and could be moved to a team in need of defensive help if the Royals want to use Waters in center field instead of a corner spot. After being acquired from the Braves in July, Waters’ change of scenery seemed to take, as he hit well at both the Triple-A level and in his first 109 plate appearances in the majors.
Kansas City hopes Waters can play every day in one of the outfield spots, with his specific placement based on Taylor’s status or on how other noted younger players best fit into the lineup. Melendez will continue to get playing time at catcher when franchise icon Salvador Perez needs a DH day or an off-day, but left field is likely Melendez’s best opportunity for more at-bats as he continues to acclimate to big league pitching. Turning 27 in March, Edward Olivares is a little older than most of Kansas City’s young core, but he hit well in limited action in 2022 while battling injuries and earned himself at least another part-time role in 2023.
Kyle Isbel, Brent Rooker, and minor leaguers Brewer Hicklen, Dairon Blanco, and Nick Loftin are also part of the depth chart, and will be competing for jobs during Spring Training. It makes for a crowded outfield mix that perhaps would make the front office lean towards trading Taylor. Moving Dozier would be trickier given his contract, yet Picollo could perhaps explore a trade involving Dozier and another team’s undesirable contract.
With all of these players on hand, is there room for the Royals to add at least one notable player to the everyday lineup? Picollo has said the team is looking for at least one veteran hitter that would preferably hit from the right side, and Kansas City’s multi-positional depth is a plus in that it allows the front office to explore many possible options. Third base or (if Taylor is dealt and Waters moves to center field) the corner outfield might be the most logical areas, or K.C. could add some pop to the first base/designated hitter mix. However, a DH-only player isn’t really a fit since the Royals wouldn’t want to take at-bats away from Pasquantino or Pratto, though Pratto does have some corner outfield experience.
While it remains to be seen how Picollo’s front office will differ from Moore’s leadership, the payroll will remain the same, at least in the short term. The Royals won’t suddenly start splashing around money with a new GM in charge, as Picollo has reiterated Kansas City will spend roughly close to its 2022 levels — so, somewhere in between the $95MM Opening Day roster and the $88MM the Royals were spending by season’s end (as per Roster Resource). With roughly $76.5MM already committed to the 2023 roster, that leaves Picollo with some room to maneuver even without any non-tenders, but the Royals seem unlikely to use the bulk of their spending space on a single player.
“We’re operating right now near capacity with what we want to spend, but that’s where we need to be open-minded in how we can manage and free up some money to change the look of the team a little bit,” Picollo said. “John [Sherman] has told me, ’Let’s understand where we are as a team right now, and when the time is right for us to add to the payroll, we’ll do that.’ It’s going to ebb and flow a little bit, but with where we’re at as a team right now, adding an extra $20 million isn’t going to put us at the top. There are other things we need to take care of first before we make that push with the payroll.”
As noted, non-tenders or trades are logical avenues for the Royals to “free up some money.” Whereas a Keller or a Dozier might have limited appeal on the trade market, however, a player like Scott Barlow also stands out as a possible trade chip, given how teams have tried to pry him away from K.C. in the past. Barlow is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration, he turns 30 in December, and he is a free agent after the 2024 season. These factors could all make him expendable if the Royals don’t see Barlow as part of their longer-term future, but trading a quality reliever would further set back a Kansas City bullpen that is already in need of help.
The idea of 2023 as yet another evaluation year probably doesn’t hold much appeal to Royals fans, but it does seem more sensible than blowing things up and relaunching another rebuild, or suddenly spending to build around a young core that may not be stable. Since Quatraro is coming from a Rays team renowned for developing young talent and for mixing and matching roster pieces to create a winning lineup, a managerial change alone might help K.C. get a better sense of which players are surefire building blocks.
Nationals Looking To Add Starter, Corner Outfielder
As a team that finished 55-107 in 2022 and faces an uncertain ownership picture, the Nationals are not expected to be shopping for the big ticket free agents this winter, but general manager Mike Rizzo has said he will remain active in looking to upgrade the roster. Per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post, Rizzo specifically mentioned the rotation, as well as first, third and the corner outfield spots as positions he could look to add in.
The rotation is no surprise, given the Nats ranked 29th in the majors in starting pitcher ERA last season. Given the team is still in the midst of a rebuild, it’s more likely they seek out one or two buy-low veterans to stabilize the rotation than make any sort of splashy move. For starters, a few of the rotations spots are already sewn up. Veteran Patrick Corbin has struggled mightily of late, posting 5.82 and 6.31 ERAs the past two years but he’s owed $24.4MM next season and then $35.4MM in 2024. Then there’s Stephen Strasburg, who’s owed $140MM over the next four seasons but has thrown just 31 1/3 innings over the past three seasons as he battles his way back from a mountain of injury problems. It’s possible there’s a bad contract swap to be done, but it’s more likely the Nationals try and get Strasburg healthy and see if they can both rebuild their value in 2023.
Beyond those two, the team may look to fill the final three spots with youngsters Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli and MacKenzie Gore, but that poses plenty of questions itself. Gray gave up 38 home runs across 148 2/3 innings in his rookie year after coming across from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer deal. Cavalli dealt with shoulder problems and Gore never pitched for the team after arriving in the Juan Soto deal due to elbow inflammation. All three have plenty of promise and will get a lot of opportunities in 2023, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt for the Nats to solidify things a little by adding a veteran pitcher or two.
On the position player side of things, Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia and Lane Thomas form a promising young core up the middle, so it’s not surprising that it’s the edges that Rizzo is looking to upgrade there.
In the infield, Carter Kieboom will look to bounce back from Tommy John surgery and stake a claim to be the team’s long term third baseman. Kieboom hasn’t hit much in the big leagues, posting wRC+s of 18, 68 and 69 in his three seasons. The Nats rebuild affords him a bit more time to find his feet, and Rizzo’s already stated he’ll have spring training to compete for the position. Over at first, the team will surely give 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses a chance to show his surprise 2022 season was no fluke. He hit .324/.367./.563 with 13 home runs in 240 plate appearances, and while that sample size is still small, there’s no real reason why Washington wouldn’t give him plenty of looks in 2023.
Washington does have Luke Voit under control for 2023 as well, and it’s possible they use him and Meneses as their first base/DH split. However, Voit is due an arbitration salary of $8.2MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ predictions, and given he was right around league average last year (102 wRC+), the Nats may opt to non-tender him and look for a cheaper alternative. Speculatively speaking, perhaps a low-cost bounce back candidate such as Miguel Sano or Jesus Aguilar could appeal.
Rizzo also mentioned the corner outfield spots as possible places to add. Thomas spent most of last year in right field with Victor Robles manning center. Robles is the superior defender and Thomas is the better hitter, so there’s every chance that alignment remains heading into 2023. Both are projected to make modest salaries in arbitration ($2.1MM for Thomas, $2.5MM for Robles), but given Robles’ struggles at the plate there’s a chance they trade or non-tender him and let Thomas take over in center, where he’s still more than adequate. Waiver claim Alex Call and veteran Yadiel Hernandez hit well enough this season to suggest they’ll be back, and perhaps Washington will look to platoon them in left.
Considering all of that, there’s certainly room for the Nationals to add another outfielder to the mix, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Call or Hernandez relegated to a bench spot. The Nats added Nelson Cruz on a $15MM deal last winter when they were a ways off contention, and while that particular move didn’t pay off, it shows they’re willing to commit a bit of salary to players in the hope of them turning into something come the trade deadline. Again, speculatively, that could put the likes of Tommy Pham, Andrew McCutchen and Corey Dickerson on their radar, particularly if they’re still available later in the off-season.
Any ownership change will certainly shape most of the conversation of how much Rizzo can get done in free agency though. All he could offer on the matter is they’ve been told to continue “business as usual”.
A’s Sign Rico Garcia To Minor League Deal
Oakland have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with pitcher Rico Garcia, according to A’s broadcaster Jessica Kleinschmidt. The deal comes with an invite to spring training.
Garcia, 28, appeared in six games for the Orioles in 2022, throwing eight innings of 4.50 ERA ball, giving up a pair of home runs and striking out just two batters. In 34 2/3 innings at Triple-A, Garcia had a 2.34 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. He throws a 95mph fastball and adds in a changeup and cutter to his arsenal.
Garcia was drafted in the 30th round of the 2016 draft by the Rockies. He made his way up through Colorado’s system, debuting with a handful of innings in 2019. He was plucked off waivers by the Giants that winter and pitched ten innings of 5.40 ERA ball for them in 2020. Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2021 put an end to that campaign and he latched on with the Orioles for 2022 before being granted free agency shortly after the season.
All told, Garcia owns a lifetime 6.38 ERA across 24 innings in the big leagues. Given his solid numbers in the minors, he’ll join the A’s and provide them with some pitching depth heading into the 2023 campaign.
Cubs Expecting To Add Starting Center Fielder; Active In Shortstop Market
It’s shaping up as a busy off-season for the Cubs as they look to push on with their rebuild and improve on their 74-88 record in 2022. According to remarks made by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs are expecting to add a starting center fielder, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the team has been one of the most active early on in the shortstop market.
“We have guys internally that will certainly play out there [in center],” Hoyer said, “but I think the lion’s share might come from external.”
Rafael Ortega and Christopher Morel had the bulk of the playing time in center this past season, but while both are under club control for next season, Hoyer’s comments make it pretty clear that neither are seen as their center fielder moving forward. Ortega hit .241/.331/.358 with seven home runs, while Morel posted a .235/.308/.433 line with 16 home runs in his rookie campaign. Morel bounced around the infield positions as well, but neither posted positive defensive marks for their work in center.
A number of the Cubs top prospects are outfielders, but they’re at varying stages of their development. Their top prospect, according to Fangraphs, Pete Crowe-Armstrong is at High-A while Kevin Alcantara (third) is at Single-A. Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario are their best outfield prospects at Triple-A, but both are injured and uncertain timelines.
“Certainly with [Alexander] Canario’s injury and Brennen [Davis’] setback, it made that just that much more obvious,” Hoyer said.
As far as center field options go in free agency, the options aren’t particularly plentiful. Aaron Judge is the biggest name available, but while he played a significant amount of center this season for the Yankees, it seems unlikely the Cubs would be prepared to make the sort of splash needed to land him. Brandon Nimmo’s blend of elite on-base skills, solid power, and adequate defense would make him a strong candidate, but even though he’ll be much cheaper than Judge, he’ll still likely command a deal north of $100MM and there’ll be plenty of suitors to drive his price up.
Two less high profile names to consider are Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger, and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports reports that both are n the Cubs’ radar. Kiermaier, 33, is a free agent after the Rays declined his team option for 2023. While his previously elite defensive numbers have dropped off as he’s aged, he’s still a strong defender and would be a cheaper stopgap option until one of the Cubs’ prospects are ready. Bellinger could well become a free agent shortly if the Dodgers opt to non-tender him. He’s dropped off considerably since his 47-homer MVP year in 2019, posting a wRC+ of 47 and 83 the past two seasons, but is still a solid defender in center, and at 27, he’s young enough that a change of scenery might allow him to rediscover some of his offensive talent.
While a big splash in center doesn’t appear likely, it could come at shortstop where the team is active in the market for the top four options available – Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. Wittenmyer’s report adds that the Cubs apparently “love” Correa, something that dates back to the 2012 draft when they were eyeing him up with the sixth pick before he went first overall to the Astros. The 28-year-old had a strong platform year with the Twins, where he signed on a short term deal after no adequate long term deals materialized last winter. He’ll look to cash in this winter though, and it’s certainly possible that his contract lands in the $300MM range over nine or ten years.
The Cubs used Nico Hoerner at shortstop this year to great effect. Hoerner was worth 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Outs Above Average at the position, but he could easily slide over to second base in the event the Cubs do sign one of the aforementioned shortstops, and take over at shortstop again if a new signing begins to decline and needs to switch position.
Ultimately, it’s going to be a busy winter for the Cubs, and it won’t just stop at shortstop and center field. As Wittenmyer adds, the Cubs have explored upgrading at first base and have checked in with Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, while they’re also looking to beef up their rotation and showing interest in Koudai Senga and a reunion with lefty Drew Smyly. The Cubs payroll is currently projected at $126MM, according to RosterResource. That’s well short of the sort of spending they made during their championship years last decade, so as they begin to show progress in their rebuild, it’s not surprising to see them willing to flex their financial muscle again.
White Sox Interested In Sean Murphy
After a disappointing 81-81 campaign, the White Sox enter the off-season with some clear needs to tend to if they’re to bounce back into contention with their current core of players. Among them, the catcher position, and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports the team has inquired about the A’s Sean Murphy.
While an inquiry into a player’s availability falls well short of any meaningful momentum towards a deal, it is interesting to consider given the White Sox have the under performing Yasmani Grandal under contract for 2023 at the steep rate of $18.25MM, while Murphy is projected to make $3.5MM in his first season going through arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Murphy, 28, was drafted in the third round of the 2016 draft by Oakland. While his defensive prowess behind the plate was his big calling, his bat developed to the point where he quickly became one of the A’s top prospects. Since making his debut in 2019, he’s blossomed into one of the best catchers around and 2022 was his best season yet, as Murphy hit 18 home runs, slashed .250/.332/.426 and appeared in 148 games (116 at catcher). He cut back on his strikeouts this year, dropping them from around 25% for much of his career to 20.3% in 2022.
Defensively, Murphy receives strong marks for framing and ranked sixth in all of baseball on Statcast’s Catcher Framing Runs. He also ranked fifth in Pop Time – that is, the amount of time it takes the catcher to receive a pitch and get it to the base he’s throwing it to – and that resulted in him throwing out 19 of 61 potential baserunners.
As mentioned, Murphy is going through arbitration for the first time in 2022 and is expected to make a moderate $3.5MM salary. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign, so any team acquiring him would have him for three years. All told, the price for Murphy would be steep and given the free agent catching market is thin outside of Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, the A’s will surely be looking for a big trade haul if they are to move him.
The White Sox could certainly do with Murphy, given Grandal’s struggles this season. The recently-turned 34-year-old hit just .202/.301/.269 across 99 games, with an alarming drop in power the biggest cause for concern. Grandal never hit much for average, but was always an OBP machine who could slug 20-plus homers each year. He hit just five long balls this past season, and saw his HardHit rate drop almost 14% from a year ago.
There’s already been reports that Chicago’s payroll is expected to drop and the team would be more focused on trades than the free agent market. With that in mind, the team could look to shift Grandal and bring in Murphy, freeing up just under $15MM or so of salary. While Grandal had a poor season and has a hefty salary, there is only one year remaining so it’s not unreasonable to think that a team could be interested in acquiring him if the White Sox are willing to kick in a bit of cash or throw in an intriguing prospect too. That’s purely speculation though, and there’s no indication that the team is shopping Grandal.
Astros Part Ways With General Manager James Click
The Astros have parted ways with general manager James Click, the team announced Friday. ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that Click formally rejected Houston’s one-year offer to return to the organization. Future details on the Astros’ baseball operations structure will come at an unspecified later date, per the team.
“We are grateful for all of James’ contributions,” owner Jim Crane said in a prepared statement. “We have had great success in each of his three seasons, and James has been an important part of that success. I want to personally thank him and wish him and his family well moving forward.”
It’s a bizarre and largely unprecedented dismissal, though not one that comes as a total surprise. Reports suggesting friction between Crane and Click date back more than a month now, although the general expectation was that if Houston managed to win the World Series, Click would be retained. Crane technically gave his GM that opportunity, but only in the form of a one-year extension. Extensions of just one year for a lame-duck GM are rare in the first place, and putting forth that type of offer on the heels three consecutive ALCS appearances, two straight World Series berths and, of course, a 2022 World Series victory, seems like little more than a lowball offer.
Crane hired Click on Feb. 3, 2020, just weeks after former president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch were fired in the wake of the investigation into the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Click oversaw three seasons and three trade deadlines with the Astros in addition to a pair of full offseasons. Among his notable free-agent signings were Hector Neris, a bargain pickup of Ryne Stanek, and a new deal for Justin Verlander, though Verlander himself has spoken on record about how it was a call directly from Crane that wrapped up that agreement. Relatedly, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported recently that Crane has had a far larger role in baseball operations than most owners, functioning as a sort of “owner/GM” at times.
At least on the surface, there’s some evidence that was true not only with regard to free agent endeavors but the trade market. Crane reportedly nixed a trade agreement that would’ve sent righty Jose Urquidy to the Cubs in exchange for Willson Contreras this past summer, for instance. The Astros pivoted and acquired Christian Vazquez instead. Among the other trades of note made during Click’s tenure were acquisitions of relievers Kendall Graveman, Rafael Montero, Yimi Garcia, Phil Maton and Brooks Raley — all of which look anywhere from defensible to outstanding with the benefit of hindsight.
Where the Astros go from here remains to be seen. In the past several seasons, they’ve seen key lieutenants like Sig Mejdal (Orioles) and more recently Pete Putila (Giants) leave for more prominent roles with other organizations. At present, they have a pair of assistant GMs in Andrew Ball and Scott Powers.
Of course, there will be (and already has been) rampant speculation about former Astros assistant GM David Stearns, who recently stepped down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations. Milwaukee hired Stearns away from Houston as their GM back in 2015, and Stearns quickly built a reputation as one of the most respected and successful executives in the sport, eventually being elevated to the title of president of baseball operations.
Stearns still has a year to go on his contract with the Brewers. The team announced at the time of his decision to step back that Stearns would remain with the team in an advisory/consultant capacity, helping GM Matt Arnold transition into the lead baseball operations role. Stearns, a New York native and frequent target of the Mets in recent offseasons, said at the time that he had no plans to pursue any other opportunities. “I’m not going anywhere,” Stearns stated, plainly adding that he planned to remain in Milwaukee and, for the first time in years, have the opportunity to take a deep breath and spend time with his young family.
Whether Stearns is a legitimate option for the Astros remains to be seen, though it stands to reason that Crane will look into the possibility. It’s been speculated that because Stearns still has a contract, the Astros would need to orchestrate some kind of trade to bring him into their front office. That, however, presumes that Stearns even wants to immediately jump back into the rigors of a 24-hour-a-day, 365-days-a-year baseball operations schedule.
Failing that, Crane will now have the opportunity to interview executives with other clubs to step into Click’s former role. If the hope is to eventually lure Stearns or another big-name executive to Houston, Crane might only hire a general manager for the time being, thus leaving the “president of baseball operations” title vacant and perhaps waiting for a bigger name. Doing so, however, would generally limit Crane to interviewing assistant GMs from other organizations. Teams typically only allow their executives to interview with other clubs and leave if they’re being offered a promotion.
However things play out, it’s a major shift for the Astros organization and a jarring sight to see a World Series-winning GM ousted just weeks after hoisting the trophy above his head. Crane can and likely will point to the one-year offer and say he tried to retain Click, though any such transparent statements will ring hollow. Click, who was previously an assistant GM with the Rays, should have no shortage of interest from other organizations as he looks for his next opportunity in baseball, though, and in all likelihood will have multiple offers and multiple roles from which to choose as the 44-year-old ponders what’s next in his career.
