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Yankees Have Made New Offer To Aaron Judge

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Aaron Judge entered free agency on the heels of the best platform year we’ve seen in decades, having proven the decision to turn down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training to be a wildly successful bet on himself. Judge, who naturally declined a qualifying offer last week, is now free to field interest from teams throughout the league, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner both voiced hope of getting a deal done and keeping Judge in the Bronx long-term.

Cashman confirmed to reporters last night that the team has already made a new offer to Judge (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that because Judge’s free agency is playing out “in real time… we’re certainly not going to mess around.” Steinbrenner backed Cashman’s sentiment, stating that he’s met with Judge multiple times since the season ended and “absolutely conveyed” that he wants him “to be a Yankee for the rest of his life” (via Newsday’s David Lennon)

Naturally, because Judge is an active free agent, Cashman didn’t disclose the terms of any new offer(s) — as opposed to his surprisingly candid Spring Training press conference, wherein he publicly announced the financial details of the Yankees’ final extension offer to Judge.

Judge is widely expected to top that spring extension offer handsomely, perhaps establishing a new average annual value record for position players and/or a new free-agent contract record in the process. At present, no position player has topped the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout’s 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels (though Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV is the overall record among big leaguers). Bryce Harper’s $330MM contract is the largest ever signed in free agency (though not the largest contract ever, as there have been a handful of extensions promising larger total sums).

Even with some form of record payday likely looming for Judge — MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract on last week’s Top 50 rankings — Steinbrenner went on to note that he’s made clear to Judge that there’s ample payroll space to not only re-sign the recently crowned AL MVP but also make further additions to supplement the roster (via Lennon).

Even without Judge, the Yankees are projected for a bottom-line payroll north of $206MM, per Roster Resource, and a luxury-tax bill that’s already at nearly $223MM. Judge alone would push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and any subsequent moves of note would then likely push the team into the third or possibly even newly created fourth tier of luxury penalties. Of course, those figures assume that the Yankees will tender contracts to and subsequently keep all 14 of their arbitration-eligible players, which seems unlikely. At least some of that group figures to be non-tendered before tonight’s 8pm ET deadline or tendered but subsequently traded, which would obviously alter the calculus.

Big Hype Prospects: Ward, Vodnik, Lavigne, Murray, Sikkema

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It’s time to shift our attention to the frozen wasteland of the offseason. With luck, the baseball gods will provide us with an amply warm stove to survive this bleak period without baseball. Already, we’ve seen a number of interesting, tinkering-on-the-margins trades. Teams are also preparing for the Rule 5 draft, set to take place on December 7.

Today, we’ll check in on some players who were not protected per MLB.com. By nature, none of these are consensus Top 100 prospects. In some cases, they had a better prospect pedigree in the past. In others, scouting reports don’t agree with the statistical output. Still others are clearly talented but have struggled to stay on the field.

We’ll cover half today and the other half next week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Thad Ward, 25, SP, BOS (AA)
33.1 IP, 11.07 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 2.43 ERA

Ward has scarcely pitched in official game action since 2019, accruing just 59.1 innings over the last three seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He appeared in the Arizona Fall League, adding 12.2 innings to his season total. He held opponents to a 2.84 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks.

Any team thinking about drafting Ward will have to consider his readiness for a full campaign after so much lost development time. The right-handed starter has a five-pitch repertoire. It’s believed he could play up in the bullpen as a cutter-slider specialist – they’re his best offerings. He also has a sinker, curve, and changeup, none of which are relief-quality offerings.

Victor Vodnik, 23, RP, ATL (AAA)
27.2 IP, 10.73 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, 2.93 ERA

Vodnik is a relief prospect with a cutting fastball. He has an adequate changeup and a work-in-progress slider. He pitched to a 2.93 ERA at Triple-A last season. He had issues with walks but made up for it by inducing over 50 percent ground balls. He’s allowed high BABIPs – a sign he might not have a high leverage future. He appears to be big league ready. Teams can look at him as comparable to the typical non-roster invitee.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
242 PA, 5 HR, .245/.347/.370

Lavigne had a strong AFL showing, but it wasn’t enough for the Rockies to protect him from the upcoming draft. The left-handed hitting first baseman is a discipline-first hitter. Although he has plus raw power, he doesn’t access it in-game very often. His swing path could use work, especially since his upper-cut hack has yielded a high ground ball rate. Between his size and discipline, a team might believe there is something salvageable here with the right instruction. A flatter, more adaptable swing plane could yield immediate rewards.

Jayden Murray, 25, SP/RP, HOU (AA)
108 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.50 ERA

Part of the Trey Mancini trade, Murray profiles as a high-probability future big leaguer based on his command of a plus slider. His eventual role remains uncertain. He’s spent his entire career starting – with mostly positive results. His ERAs are consistently more than a run below his FIP, a symptom of the aforementioned slider command. Few minor league pitchers have a fine touch with their offspeed stuff. Murray has made only one appearance in Triple-A. Clubs could be curious to try him in a relief role to see if the stuff plays up. Even if it doesn’t, he looks like a plausible innings-eating, low-leverage reliever for any non-contender.

T.J. Sikkema, 24, SP/RP, KC (AA)
69 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.83 ERA

A former 38th-overall pick, the Royals acquired Sikkema as part of the Andrew Benintendi trade. After dominating at the Yankees High-A affiliate, Sikkema struggled to a 7.44 ERA with the Royals Double-A crew. While his performance doesn’t appear to be that of a plausible Rule 5 pick, he fits a historically favored profile for the draft. A southpaw with a 50 percent ground ball rate, he’s worked almost exclusively as a starter. A team in need of a lefty specialist could be interested to see how he performs as a reliever.

Five More

Ethan Hankins, CLE (22): Despite reaching Rule 5 eligibility, Hankins has barely pitched professionally. He’s totaled just 64 career innings across five seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2022. At times, he has flashed multiple plus pitches. Hankins would rate as an extreme selection – he has yet to appear in High-A. Orgs lacking in both Major League and prospect talent – like the Nationals – might take an interest.

Chase Strumpf, CHC (24): Strumpf has topped out at Double-A where he’s mixed solid power and excellent discipline with a serious strikeout issue. Ironically, he was originally considered a hit-over-power prospect. Strumpf could be seen as a development project, especially if a club thinks they can unlock better results by teaching him selective aggression.

Yolbert Sanchez, CWS (25): Sanchez is a contact hitter who would have been valued more in past eras of baseball. His low-angle contact approach yields a high average at the expense of power and on-base skills. He’s mostly of interest for his value as a utility infielder who can put the bat on the ball – not unlike a Ronald Torreyes type.

Jeremiah Jackson, LAA (22): One of the younger and toolsier options available, Jackson made some notable gains at Double-A last season – specifically his rate of contact. The Angels don’t have a well-regarded development system. Jackson is young and talented enough that a team with better resources – might opt to sacrifice a roster spot for a season to see if they can unlock another level.

Micah Pries, CLE (24): Although he’s flown well-below the radar, Pries has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2021. A 2019 draftee, he missed that season due to a pre-draft hamstring injury. COVID restrictions cost him his 2020 campaign. Pries seems unlikely to be selected on so short a track record and modest scouting grades. In 504 Double-A plate appearances, he batted .266/.341/.473 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen bases. If there are underlying metrics supporting his success (I have no such info on him), a data-savvy team might give him a try.

Latest On Potential Trade Scenarios For Marlins’ Rotation

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It’s been widely reported over the past several months — really, dating back to last offseason — that the Marlins are open to dealing from their wealth of starting pitching depth in order to solidify other needs on the roster. That’s led to righty Pablo Lopez, who drew strong interest from the Yankees and the Dodgers at the trade deadline, being one of the most heavily speculated-upon trade candidates of the 2022-23 offseason. However, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes in his latest Marlins notebook column that the team may be more open to moving left-hander Trevor Rogers than Lopez.

The 25-year-old Rogers is coming off a down year — nowhere near the excellent season enjoyed by Lopez — but would appeal to other teams in a different capacity. While acquiring Lopez would likely require trading a bevy of prospects for a pitcher at his value’s peak, Rogers is more of a buy-low option on the heels of a down 2022 season. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Jonathan India in 2021, when he tossed 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball with a hefty 28.6% strikeout rate and a solid enough 8.4% walk rate.

The 2022 season was a brutal sophomore campaign for Rogers, however. Back spasms and a lat strain prompted a pair of IL stints for the 6’5″ lefty, and his results when healthy enough to take the mound didn’t even come close to that brilliant rookie output. In 107 innings, Rogers worked to a 5.47 ERA that was more than double his 2021 mark, and his strikeout rate fell by more than six percentage points (to 22.2%) while his walk rate crept up to 9.4%. After allowing just 0.41 homers per nine innings in 2021 (1.1% of his opponents took him deep), Rogers yielded an average of 1.26 homers per nine frames (3.1%).

In addition to the discrepancy between the pair’s 2022 seasons, Lopez is under team control for only two more years and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.6MM in his second year of arbitration. Rogers, meanwhile, is not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled for another four seasons. Both players would be highly appealing to the majority of clubs seeking rotation help this offseason, but a win-now club might feel better about plugging the veteran Lopez into its rotation, as he’s coming off a career-high 180 innings and has worked to a combined 3.52 ERA (3.48 FIP, 3.69 SIERA) over his past three seasons.

As was the case last offseason, it’s not a lock that the Marlins will trade any of their current big league rotation options. Many similar rumblings echoed throughout the 2021-22 offseason, but at the end of the day, the most notable arm the Fish had moved was right-hander Zach Thompson, who’d been their fifth starter. That the Marlins are open to moving Lopez and perhaps even more open to moving Rogers is notable, but that hardly means they plan to shop either pitcher and trade him for the best offer.

Rather, Miami appears likely to again set its sights on solidifying its center field vacancy this offseason. That didn’t transpire last year, and the team instead relied entirely on in-house options — most of whom were corner outfielders that were clearly miscast in center. Jesus Sanchez, former top prospect JJ Bleday and Bryan De La Cruz all logged significant time in center, but none of that trio drew particularly strong defensive grades for their efforts there.

Looking ahead to 2023, Miami will have to hope for better results from Avisail Garcia in one corner outfield spot and could again look to the trio of Sanchez, Bleday and De La Cruz as outfield components — though this time more likely in whichever corner is not occupied by Garcia. Jackson writes within his column that the bulk of Jorge Soler’s playing time will likely come at designated hitter next season, so he looks like an occasional outfield option, at best.

While center field is perhaps the most obvious area of need, Miami could also use upgrades at a variety of positions. Third base seems like another possible focus, and Miami lacks an obvious first baseman aside from Garrett Cooper, who’s been a candidate to be traded himself dating back to the deadline.

Of course, most fans salivate over the mere notion of 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara being made available in a trade, but with four years remaining on an affordable contract, there’s little to no hope of such a scenario actually transpiring. Alcantara is a veritable lock to be Miami’s Opening Day starter in 2023, and if Lopez isn’t traded, he’ll presumably slot into the second spot in the rotation. The Marlins will also lean on a resurgent Jesus Luzardo and hard-throwing righty Edward Cabrera — a longtime top prospect who broke out with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts last year.

Rogers and fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett are the favorites to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation, particularly with top prospects Max Meyer (Tommy John), Jake Eder (Tommy John) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) all recovering from surgery. Right-hander Eury Perez reached Double-A at just 19 years of age in 2023 and could be another rotation option before long; he’s widely considered to be among the ten best prospects in all of baseball and, unsurprisingly, is considered squarely off the table (as is the case with Alcantara), per Jackson’s report.

The Opener: Non-Tender Deadline, Bellinger, Diamondbacks

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With yet another offseason deadline upon us, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball today:

1. The Non-Tender Deadline Is Today

This offseason’s non-tender deadline is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Typically, the focus of the n0n-tender deadline is arbitration level players, though it’s not unheard of for pre-arbitration players to be non-tendered as well. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections provide a comprehensive list of arbitration-eligible players across MLB and their projected 2023 salaries. Some teams have taken steps to address roster concerns ahead of the non-tender deadline, such as the Rays preemptively trading Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates. In some cases, a club and its player will come to an agreement prior to the non-tender deadline, as several already did yesterday (e.g. Cardinals and Chris Stratton). There’s plenty of teams with lots of decisions left to make as the deadline approaches, however, including the Brewers, who have a massive arbitration class of 18 players.

2. What Will The Dodgers Do With Bellinger?

Perhaps the most significant decision any team faces due to today’s deadline is that of the Dodgers on former MVP Cody Bellinger. Just a few years ago, he was widely considered one of the sport’s brightest stars, but back-to-back disastrous seasons at the plate, combined with Bellinger’s projected $18.1MM salary for 2023, could give the Dodgers pause about retaining him for next season. Bellinger still has value as a plus baserunner and excellent glove in the field, but his .193/.256/.355 slash line since the start of the 2021 season inspires little confidence in his bat going forward. As one of the game’s financial powerhouses, the Dodgers could conceivably be more comfortable taking a risk of this nature than most teams; a one-year, $18.1MM contract would not be quite as painful for them as it would be for others should Bellinger struggle again in 2023. If the Dodgers ultimately do non-tender Bellinger, his free agency will be a fascinating one to follow, as he would join a thin center field market behind top option Brandon Nimmo.

3. Lewis Trade Furthers Outfield Logjam In Arizona

Yesterday’s Opener discussed how Seattle’s recent trade for Teoscar Hernandez added to a logjam in their outfield and suggested they may look to trade from that newfound depth in the coming days. That came to pass rather quickly as the Mariners dealt 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks yesterday in exchange for Cooper Hummel. Lewis has struggled following his breakout 2020 campaign due to a number of significant injuries, but the acquisition of a player of his talents could certainly address Arizona’s desire for additional right-handed power in 2023. While Lewis does check a box on GM Mike Hazen’s offseason shopping list, the trade also adds to Arizona’s own outfield logjam. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho are likely set in center and right field, leaving  Jake McCarthy, former top prospect Alek Thomas, Dominic Fletcher and Lewis (who could also spend ample time at DH) to vie for reps. Furthermore, if Lewis indeed occupies the DH slot for a significant portion of his playing time, perhaps no player is as impacted by Arizona’s newest acquisition than Seth Beer, who struggled in limited playing time in 2022 and could see his further opportunities limited further going forward. Carroll and Varsho are overwhelmingly unlikely to move, but the D-backs should still receive interest in the remainder of their outfield/DH options. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a deeper look at Arizona’s outfield logjam back in September.

Mariners, Diamondbacks Swap Kyle Lewis, Cooper Hummel

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The Mariners and Diamondbacks have swapped young big leaguers, announcing agreement on a one-for-one deal moving outfielder/DH Kyle Lewis to Arizona. The Mariners bring back catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel in return.

Lewis is the more well-known of the players involved. Seattle’s first-round pick in 2016, he bounced back from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during his first professional season to climb the minor league ranks. The Mercer University product made it to the big leagues late in the 2019 season, and he looked as if he’d cemented himself as a key piece of the organization the following year.

During the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Lewis appeared in 58 games and tallied 242 plate appearances. He connected on 11 home runs and walked in a fantastic 14% of his trips en route to a .262/.364/.437 line. That offensive production was 27 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, and it earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Few would’ve imagined Lewis would only spend two more years in Seattle coming off that season, but he’s rapidly fallen down the depth chart. That’s less due to performance than an unfortunate series of injuries in his right knee, which has proven consistently problematic. Lewis began the 2021 campaign on the injured list, and an April return proved brief. He went back on the shelf in early June, and the M’s subsequently announced he’d suffered a meniscus tear. He ended up missing the remainder of the season and wasn’t recovered in time for the start of this year.

Lewis opened the 2022 campaign back on the IL. He was reinstated on May 25, nearly a full calendar year since his previous MLB game. After a handful of games, he unfortunately suffered a concussion and spent another two months on the IL. Lewis returned in late July, played in 14 more games, then was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. He spent the rest of the season there but had a solid showing, putting up a .245/.362/.517 line with 12 homers through 42 games there.

There’s obvious risk for the D-Backs in taking on a player who has appeared in just 54 MLB contests over the past two years. He’s never topped 58 big league games in a season and has only 130 career games and 526 plate appearances under his belt. Yet it’s similarly easy to see the appeal for general manager Mike Hazen and his group in rolling the dice on Lewis’ upside. During his lone healthy season, he showed the obvious power and plate discipline that made him such a well-regarded prospect. There’s a fair bit of swing-and-miss in his game, but he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order caliber bat if healthy.

Lewis spent some time in center field as a minor leaguer and early in his big league career, but he was almost exclusively a designated hitter this past season. He’s capable of factoring into the corner outfield and could perhaps still moonlight up the middle if necessary, but the Diamondbacks aren’t going to rely on him in center field much — if at all. Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are all talented defenders, and Carroll and Varsho figure to get a particularly strong amount of playing time up the middle. Hazen has expressed a willingness to deal one of those players if it nets him help elsewhere on the roster, but Arizona’s depth of plus defenders should give them the chance to mostly keep Lewis off his feet as a DH.

Adding some right-handed pop was also a key offseason objective for Arizona, and Lewis could be a long-term righty power bat in the desert. He’s still just 27 years old and has two years and 146 days of major league service time. That qualifies him for early arbitration as a Super Two player, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just a $1.2MM salary. He’s arbitration eligible through 2026, and the early-career injuries have kept Lewis from building the kind of resume that’d be handsomely rewarded through that process thus far.

Lewis’ departure will be jarring for Mariners fans, but it looked increasingly likely Seattle could subtract from the corner outfield after acquiring Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays yesterday. As another right-handed hitting right fielder/DH, Hernández made Lewis an arguably superfluous presence on the roster. Julio Rodríguez has cemented himself as the franchise center fielder, and the M’s still have a number of internal options — Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore — as left field possibilities. The M’s have reportedly floated Winker’s name in trade talks, but they could either look into a left field upgrade or rely on some of their younger options even if they send the former Red elsewhere.

In exchange for Lewis, they bring in a player with a bit more defensive flexibility. Hummel, 28 next month, was first drafted by the Brewers in 2016. Arizona acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline in a deal that sent veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar to Milwaukee. The right-handed hitter was sitting on a .254/.435/.508 line in Triple-A at the time, and the Snakes gave him his first big league chance this year.

Hummel scuffled over his first 66 MLB games, hitting just .176/.274/.307 with three homers in 201 plate appearances. He struck out in a huge 31.8% of his plate appearances during that time, but he walked at a strong 11.4% clip. Hummel also continued to hit well with Arizona’s top minor league affiliate, posting a .310/.423/.527 line in 33 games in Reno. In a bit more than 500 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Oregon native has a .310/.429/.540 line with an incredible 16.7% walk rate.

On the defensive side of the ball, Hummel has split his time between catcher and the corner outfield. He got 14 MLB starts behind the dish and 17 apiece in left field and designated hitter. Prospect evaluators have never considered Hummel a likely everyday catcher, but the M’s don’t need him to be with Cal Raleigh as their franchise backstop. Hummel can factor in as an occasional catcher and corner outfield option off the bench, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two years. He’s a flexible depth piece who has less than a full year of big league service. He won’t qualify for arbitration until at least after the 2024 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the D-Backs and Mariners were swapping Lewis and Hummel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

White Sox Planning To Keep Garrett Crochet In Bullpen For 2023

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The White Sox face some questions about their starting rotation this offseason, with the group’s lack of depth needing to be addressed from the outside. Dylan Cease doubled down on his 2021 breakout to finish second in AL Cy Young voting. He’s a true ace, while Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn will look to bounce back from uncharacteristically middling seasons to reestablish themselves as above-average arms in the middle of the staff.

Michael Kopech figures to assume the #4 rotation spot, but the club doesn’t have a great option at fifth starter after seeing Johnny Cueto hit free agency. Davis Martin is the in-house favorite for that role, but general manager Rick Hahn told reporters at last week’s GM Meetings the club would look to plug the hole with an outside addition.

One option that does not seem to be on the table is stretching left-hander Garrett Crochet out as a starter at any point next season. Pitching coach Ethan Katz told reporters this afternoon he doesn’t “think starting is in the cards next year” for the hard-throwing 23-year-old (link via James Fegan of the Athletic). Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery this past April. He’s presently stretched out to throwing from 120 feet, tweets MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, but he nevertheless seems unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster just 12 months removed from surgery. Once he’s healthy, it looks as if the White Sox will return him to a bullpen role in which he’s had plenty of success in his young career.

The 11th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Crochet made his big league debut as a reliever with the Sox just a few months after coming out of the University of Tennessee. He mostly stayed in that role for 2021, working 54 1/3 innings of 2.82 ERA ball over 54 appearances. There was some thought the Sox could consider lengthening Crochet into rotation work this past season, but he was diagnosed with the ligament damage in his elbow a few days before the start of the season. He went under the knife just before Opening Day and didn’t pitch this year.

Crochet only made one 3 1/3-inning start during his final season of college. He missed the first few weeks of that season with injury, and the pandemic resulted in the cancelation of the college baseball season almost immediately upon his return to the mound. With no minor league campaign that year, he threw a combined 9 1/3 innings between college and MLB. Factor in his 54 1/3 frames last year, and Crochet has just 63 2/3 innings under his belt since the end of the 2019 campaign.

With such a limited platform, it’s sensible for the White Sox to opt against trying to build him towards a rotation workload at any point in 2023. At the same time, it also raises the question of whether such a move will ever be practicable. Many prospect evaluators suggested Crochet could be better suited for relief work dating back to his time in Knoxville, but the White Sox presumably wouldn’t have drafted him so highly if they didn’t feel he had at least some chance of starting. The unfortunately-timed Tommy John surgery has killed any possibility of that to this point, and Crochet will have already topped three years of MLB service by the end of next season.

Of course, Crochet can be a valuable piece of the Sox’s pitching staff even if he’s limited to shorter stints. He’s already demonstrated the capacity to handle big league hitters, punching out 28.3% of opponents behind an 11.9% swinging strike rate and a fastball that averaged just under 97 MPH in 2021. Crochet only once faced more than eight batters in an outing that year, but Katz indicated the club could deploy him a multi-inning relief role next season.

The White Sox have some experience in building a talented power arm back gradually from an extended layoff. Kopech followed a fairly similar path. He started his first four big league games in 2018 but underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of that year. He spent all of 2019 rehabbing and then opted out of the 2020 season. The Sox worked him back from that two-year absence as a multi-inning reliever, giving him 69 1/3 innings through 44 appearances in 2021. He made the full-time move to the rotation this past season, building to 119 1/3 frames over 25 starts.

Kopech’s year was cut short by injury. Originally placed on the injured list in mid-September with a shoulder strain, he underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee just before the season ended. The initial expectation was the right-hander would be ready for Spring Training, and while that may still be the case, Katz conceded today Kopech’s recovery has involved “a little slower progression than we originally thought.” The pitching coach noted the team still expects Kopech to have sufficient time to build up to five-inning appearances by the end of exhibition play, but any uncertainty on that front would only increase the team’s urgency to add rotation depth this offseason.

Mets Meet With Kodai Senga

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The Mets recently sat down with free agent starter Kodai Senga in New York, reports Will Sammon of the Athletic. Andy Martino of SNY first reported earlier this week that New York and Senga’s camp would sit down.

Senga, 30 in January, recently wrapped up his 11th season in Nippon Professional Baseball. He had a 2.59 ERA in over 1000 career innings at Japan’s highest level. Senga’s coming off a particularly excellent platform campaign, working to a 1.94 ERA through 144 frames with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He punched out an above-average 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate.

Evaluators have raised some concerns about Senga’s command and breaking ball, but his combination of an upper-90s fastball and a split-finger offering have drawn plenty of praise. Between his excellent NPB performance and quality raw stuff, he figures to be of interest to virtually every team with a rotation need. The right-hander has already found a wide array of interest as he tests the market in preparation for his jump to Major League Baseball. The Mets join the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners and Padres as teams known to be involved in his market to some extent.

The Mets figure to cast a wide net in their search for return help, as the starting staff is facing a high degree of possible turnover. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and swingman Trevor Williams all hit the open market — deGrom and Bassitt after declining qualifying offers. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are presently the only locks for the season-opening rotation, with David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto among the depth options who could get a look. New York is sure to retain or add at least two starters (and quite likely three) from outside the organization over the coming months, and they’ve also been tied to former Dodger southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Senga, it bears remembering, is a true free agent after reaching nine years of service time in Japan. Unlike with players made available a year or more early via the posting system, signing Senga will not require an MLB team to provide any kind of financial compensation to the Hawks.

Guardians Release Kirk McCarty

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NOVEMBER 17: McCarty has been released, according to the transactions log at MLB.com.

NOVEMBER 15: The Guardians announced a series of roster moves in setting their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft. In addition to tonight’s pair of trades — Nolan Jones to the Rockies; Carlos Vargas to the D-backs — Cleveland has designated lefties Anthony Gose and Kirk McCarty for assignment. The series of subtractions from the 40-man paves the way for the Guardians to select the contracts of infielder Angel Martinez and lefties Joey Cantillo and Tim Herrin. Cleveland also selected infielder Juan Brito, whom they acquired from Colorado in exchange for Jones. The team’s 40-man roster is at capacity.

It’s been quite the year for McCarty, from a transactions standpoint. Originally called to the Majors as a Covid replacement in April, McCarty was returned to the minors shortly thereafter but formally selected to the 40-man roster the following month. Cleveland designated him for assignment on July 3, after which he was claimed by the Orioles, who designated him for assignment just nine days later and lost him on waivers… back to the Guardians. Beyond that series of moves, McCarty was optioned to the minors on four separate occasions over the course of his roller coaster season.

The 27-year-old McCarty generated decent but unspectacular results at the big league level in his his rookie effort this year, logging a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. His 16.4% strikeout rate was well below average, but he turned in a respectable 8.2% walk rate. McCarty has well above-average spin on his fastball and curveball, but he doesn’t throw especially hard or miss many bats, and the 2.63 HR/9 he yielded this season is an obvious red flag. He was solid in Triple-A (3.52 ERA in 65 1/3 innings) and does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so another club in need of some left-handed depth could conceivably take a look.

Gose, 32, was one of baseball’s feel-good stories in recent years. Originally a second-round pick and top prospect as an outfielder, his career stalled out after he was unable to produce much at the plate in the Majors or in the upper minors. Gose, a two-way star in high school who some scouts preferred as a pitcher in the draft, got back on the mound in A-ball as a 26-year-old in 2017 and, after taking several years to refine his command and learn to control his blazing fastball, finally made it back to the big leagues in 2021.

Gose didn’t just return to the Majors last year, though. He tossed 6 2/3 innings out of the Cleveland bullpen and allowed just a run on two hits and two walks with nine strikeouts and a heater that averaged 99.2 mph. It was a small sample, of course, but Gose stormed out of the gates in 2022 with 20 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Walks looked like an issue (14%), but by that point Gose’s big league pitching career consisted of 27 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 36 strikeouts.

The Yankees pounced on Gose for four runs in his next outing, however, after which he landed on the injured list. The Guardians initially characterized the move as one made out of necessity with a doubleheader looming, but Gose’s absence proved protracted, and more than two months after he was shelved, the team announced Gose had undergone Tommy John surgery. The Sept. 14 date of the procedure all but formally rules Gose out for the 2023 campaign, so it’s no surprise to see the Guardians open his roster spot in this fashion.

Joining the Guardians’ 40-man roster are two of their top 30 prospects — Martinez and Cantillo — as well as a lefty reliever (Herrin) who posted eye-popping numbers in Double-A. Baseball America ranks Martinez 12th in Cleveland’s system and Cantillo 15th. Martinez hit .278/.378/.471 as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A this season. Cantillo was limited to just 60 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain this season but made 14 appearances (13 starts) with a 1.93 ERA and 35.5% strikeout rate. Herrin, 26, turned in a 2.01 ERA and 41.6% strikeout rate in 22 1/3 Double-A innings before being bumped to Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.98 ERA and “just” a 30.9% strikeout rate in 47 frames.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP

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Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.

Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.

Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.

Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.

Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.

Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.

Full voting breakdown available here.

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