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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves’ efforts to repeat as World Series champions fell short with a four-game Division Series loss to the Phillies. While it was a disappointing finish, there’s plenty of reason for optimism carrying into next season. The Braves won 101 games and were scorching hot from June onwards to claim a fifth straight NL East title. Much of that roster will be back, although they are facing the potential departure of their All-Star shortstop.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $212MM through 2032 (deal also includes 2033 club option)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $153MM through 2029 (deal also includes 2030 club option)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $78MM through 2026 (including buyout of 2027 club option; deal also contains 2028 club option)
  • Spencer Strider, RHP: $75MM through 2028 (including buyout of 2029 club option)
  • Michael Harris II, CF: $72MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option; deal also contains 2032 club option)
  • Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $48MM through 2025
  • Marcell Ozuna, DH: $37MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $25MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option; deal also contains 2027 club option)
  • Charlie Morton: RHP: $20MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Eddie Rosario, LF: $9MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Kirby Yates, RHP: $7.25MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Collin McHugh, RHP: $6MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Manny Piña, C: $4.5MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Orlando Arcia, 2B: $1.4MM through 2023 (deal also includes 2024 club option)
  • Nick Anderson, RHP: $875K through 2023 (arbitration-eligible through 2025)

Other financial commitments: Owe Rangers $10MM in 2023 as part of Jake Odorizzi trade

Total 2023 commitments: $164.675MM
Total future commitments: $767.025MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Total arbitration projection: $22.9MM

Non-tender candidate: Matzek

Free Agents

The Braves stormed back from a deficit that had been as high as 10 1/2 games to claim another division title. One could argue their 2022 team was the best they’ve had in this past half-decade of immense success, but they couldn’t repeat as World Series champions. Now they head into a second straight offseason with the potential departure of one of the winter’s top free agents.

After allowing Freddie Freeman to walk to the Dodgers last offseason, Atlanta has to decide how to proceed with Dansby Swanson. Like Freeman, Swanson has played his entire big league career in Atlanta (although he was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks). He’s an incredibly durable player who has reliably been in the Braves lineup almost every day for six-plus years. After some early-career offensive struggles, he’s turned a corner at the dish to pair with consistently strong shortstop defense.

Swanson has been an average or better hitter three years running. He’s coming off a .277/.329/.447 showing and reached the 25 home run mark for the second straight season. Swanson strikes out a bit more than average and doesn’t draw a ton of walks, but it’s rare to find plus defensive middle infielders with above-average power. The former #1 overall pick earned his first All-Star nod this past season and fits right alongside Javier Báez and Trevor Story — each of whom secured $140MM guarantees with opt-out clauses last winter — as free agent shortstops heading into their age-29 seasons. Swanson’s not elite, but he’s very good, and there’s no question the Braves would prefer to keep him around.

A Georgia native, Swanson has spoken in the past about his desire to return. While there’s clearly mutual interest, financials will needless to say play a big part in deciding whether he’s back in their lineup on Opening Day. Swanson hasn’t given any public indication he’s willing to take a massive discount to stick around, and he reportedly declined an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season. Given how easily Báez and Story each topped that figure, it stands to reason Atlanta will have to raise their proposal significantly at this point — although, to be clear, a $100MM offer midway through what proved a career-best season to date may not have been all that unreasonable when the team first made it.

If Swanson does end up elsewhere, the Braves would recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in next year’s draft, since he rejected a qualifying offer. That’d soften the blow a bit, but it’d leave the win-now club with a major question at shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote earlier this week the Braves are unlikely to sign any of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts — each of whom is expected to command a loftier deal than Swanson. There’s a massive drop-off from Swanson to the fifth-best free agent shortstop, Elvis Andrus.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, the lack of mid-tier free agent shortstops this winter could lead president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff to turn to the trade market if they don’t succeed in re-upping Swanson. The Guardians’ Amed Rosario, Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Reds’ Kyle Farmer are among a handful of speculative possibilities who could provide adequate production as a stopgap, but each would be a marked downgrade from the defending Gold Glove winner.

There’s a chance Atlanta decides against diving into the free agent or trade markets. Orlando Arcia isn’t a great fit as an everyday player on a contender, but he’s coming off a reasonable 2022 showing that saw him help fill-in at second base when Ozzie Albies was injured. More interesting is the possibility of allowing top prospect Vaughn Grissom to take the reins.

Grissom, 22 in January, put himself firmly on the radar with a massive showing in High-A to start the season. He was bumped to Double-A and appeared in only 22 games there before the Braves surprisingly jumped him straight to the big leagues as part of a revolving door at second base with Albies out. He got out to a blistering start before his production tailed off, but a .291/.353/.440 line through his first 41 MLB games is impressive enough to at least put him in the conversation for an everyday job out of the gate.

Certainly, turning things over to Grissom would be a risky play. He has zero Triple-A experience, and he showed a very aggressive offensive approach in his early big league look which he’ll probably have to dial back. A shortstop for much of his minor league tenure, he played almost exclusively second base in the majors and didn’t rate well there in his brief debut. Prospect outlets have expressed some concern about whether he’s athletic enough to play an effective shortstop, and it’s possible the Braves are wary of handing him such a key responsibility. They’re not completely averse to the idea, though, as David O’Brien of the Athletic writes that Grissom has been working one-on-one with renowned infield coach Ron Washington to try to hone his shortstop skills.

The Anthopoulos front office hasn’t been afraid to trust its top young talents, even in the absence of much upper minors experience. Re-signing Swanson would certainly raise the team’s floor, but it’d also require adding another massive contract to an increasingly cluttered payroll ledger. Roster Resource projects the team’s Opening Day payroll in the $196MM range, and only Tyler Matzek (who has a modest $1.8MM arbitration projection) stands out as a potential non-tender candidate. Before considering a new Swanson deal or any external upgrades, the Braves are projected for a payroll almost $20MM above this past season’s approximate $178MM Opening Day mark, itself the highest in team history.

The Liberty Media ownership group is clearly comfortable with a franchise-record payroll, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of playoff revenue they’ve banked over the past five seasons. CEO Greg Maffei reiterated recently the team is willing to open next year in the top five spenders (via Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). That doesn’t inherently mean they’re pushing spending dramatically above where things already stand, however.

In the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Braves already rank fifth in projected 2023 payroll. Their luxury tax number is projected by both Cot’s and Roster Resource between $222MM and $228MM, with Cot’s pegging that third-highest in the majors. Bringing back Swanson would send the franchise soaring past next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. The Braves already are one of the sport’s top spenders, regardless of whether they make any more notable investments.

While that kind of stacked payroll ledger can sometimes reflect a number of undesirable contracts a team wishes it could shed, that’s not the case for the Braves. Their investments, by and large, are ones with which the front office is unquestionably happy. Atlanta has had more success than any other team in extending its long-term core.

Much of the offseason attention for the Braves being focused on shortstop is a testament to the strength of the roster that’s otherwise in place. It’s arguably the most complete in the majors, with the heavy lifting already done in most areas. Atlanta has one of the top catching groups, with Travis d’Arnaud under contract for just $8MM. He’s likely to split time with William Contreras, who broke out with a monster .278/.354/.506 showing over 97 games this year. Contreras could also see some action at designated hitter and in left field, particularly if the Braves carry three backstops on the active roster. Veteran Manny Piña will make $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year free agent deal; he lost almost all of this past season to left wrist surgery, and the Braves could look to offload some or all of his salary to a team with less catching depth.

The infield aside from shortstop is set. Matt Olson and Austin Riley will probably be the corner tandem for the entire decade. Albies will be the second baseman, hopefully with better injury luck than he experienced this past season. Arcia can bounce around as a depth piece off the bench.

Two outfield spots are also locked down. Ronald Acuña Jr. will be the right fielder, with Rosenthal quashing any nonsensical trade speculation involving one of the sport’s best young talents. Michael Harris II is in center field, fresh off a Rookie of the Year-winning season. Like Olson, Riley, and Albies, Acuña and Harris have already signed long-term extensions that’ll keep them around for the foreseeable future.

The only other question mark on the position player side is in left field. Adam Duvall is a free agent and didn’t play well anyhow. Eddie Rosario had a rough 2022 campaign even after undergoing surgery to correct the vision in his right eye. Marcell Ozuna returned to the roster after last year’s domestic violence arrest and suspension. He didn’t play well on either side of the ball and was charged with a DUI in August. Atlanta acquired Sam Hilliard from the Rockies to kick off the offseason, but he has huge strikeout issues and a career .294 on-base percentage despite spending his career to date in Colorado.

It’s not a great group, and the Braves could certainly look for upgrades. Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are among the free agent corner outfielders available, while Andrew Benintendi figures to be a bit more expensive than the rest of that group. On the trade market, players like Max Kepler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jesse Winker could be shopped by their current clubs. The Braves could also give Contreras regular run in left field, but he played just one game there this past season.

Atlanta would surely welcome the possibility of parting with Rosario or Ozuna, but neither is going to have much trade appeal. Finding a taker for a fraction of the $8MM due to Rosario next season could be viable, but the Braves may just prefer to hold him and hope for a bounceback. It’s hard to envision another team engineering even a swap of underwater deals to take on Ozuna, who’s due $37MM for the final two years of a contract that proved a rare misstep for the organization. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Braves release him entirely if he gets off to a slow start.

Just as there’s not much to quibble on the position player side, the pitching staff projects as one of the league’s best. Atlanta has a front four of Cy Young finalist Max Fried, Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton. Few teams can match that kind of 1-4, and there’s a chance the Braves try to work out long-term deals with either Fried or Wright. The former is already projected for a $12.2MM arbitration salary and just two years from the open market, so a Fried extension would be a much heftier investment. Wright is still a year from arbitration and under control for four seasons overall.

There’s a bit of uncertainty in the fifth spot, which Jake Odorizzi failed to effectively seize after being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline. Atlanta felt comfortable enough with its in-house depth to ship away Odorizzi days after he exercised his $12.5MM option, paying down $10MM of the deal and receiving depth arm Kolby Allard from the Rangers in return.

It was a vote of confidence some younger arms in the system can outperform Odorizzi, as Atlanta only saved $2.5MM. Anthopoulos pointed to Bryce Elder, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller as pitchers who could battle for the final spot. Anderson and Soroka each looked like core pieces of the future not too long ago. The former had a rough 2022 season, while the latter has had a nightmarish stretch of Achilles injuries that have cost him two-plus years. That duo has shown plenty of talent, however, and they pair with Elder — a well-regarded prospect who made his first 10 MLB appearances this past season — as depth options with some upside. Righty Freddy Tarnok could eventually get a look as well after a strong showing in the upper minors that briefly earned him his big league debut.

The Braves could scour the market for a depth starter, but they don’t have to force any additions considering the volume of in-house arms. Elder, Muller and Tarnok could trickle into a bullpen that also looks like one of the game’s best units. A.J. Minter broke out as an elite arm from the left side, backed up by the more quietly excellent Dylan Lee. The Braves agreed to take on the last three years of Raisel Iglesias’ contract in a deadline swap with the Angels, giving them a ready-made closing replacement if Kenley Jansen walks in free agency. Collin McHugh gives them a high-leverage setup type from the right side, and the Braves have rolled the dice on former stars Kirby Yates and Nick Anderson, each of whom are trying to regain their footing after lengthy injury rehabs. Atlanta could be a fit for a stable middle innings type — particularly one who throws right-handed — but that’s more of a luxury buy than a pressing concern.

That’s true of much of the roster, one which looks poised to remain among the sport’s best for a number of seasons. So much of the offseason attention will be focused on the shortstop uncertainty, but the Braves will enter the year as one of the likeliest teams to compete for a World Series if Swanson returns or not. Anthopoulos and his group won’t be complacent in a division that also features another 100-win team and the defending NL pennant winners, but the Braves are in excellent shape for this offseason and many beyond.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 11-19-22 at 11:00 am CST. Click here to view the transcript.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/22

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is tomorrow. While tomorrow will surely see a frenzy of deals and non-tenders, some agreements have already started to trickle out today.

For many players, there’s little pressure to agree to terms this week. The deadline for exchanging figures isn’t until January 13, with the hearings taking place in March. However, players that are borderline non-tender candidates might get a low-ball offer at this time, with the team hoping that the looming possibility of a non-tender compels the player to accept. As such, deals at this part of the baseball calendar have a higher likelihood of coming in under projections.

One new wrinkle from the new collective bargaining agreement is that all of these deals will be guaranteed. Previously, teams could cut a player during Spring Training and only pay a portion of the agreed-upon figure. However, the new CBA stipulates that any player who settles on a salary without going to a hearing will be subject to full termination pay, even if released prior to the beginning of the season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month but, as mentioned, it’s not uncommon for the deals agreed to at this time to come in below projections. This post may be updated later as more agreements come in…

  • The Cardinals announced that they have a one-year deal in place with right-hander Chris Stratton. The club didn’t disclose the terms but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that it’s for $2.8MM. Stratton spent the past few years with the Pirates but came over to St. Louis at the deadline as part of the Jose Quintana deal. He had much better results after the jersey switch, as his ERA was 5.09 before but 2.78 after.

Earlier Deals

  • The Giants and left-hander Scott Alexander have agreed to a one-year deal worth about $1.2MM, per @drew_smitty. (The New York Post’s Jon Heyman, more specifically, pegs the exact number as $1.15MM.) The southpaw has appeared in each of the past eight seasons, largely providing effective work but also frequently hitting the injured list. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in May and got selected in August. He made 17 appearances down the stretch and posted a miniscule 1.04 ERA, impressive enough to convince the Giants to keep him around.
  • The Reds and right-hander Buck Farmer have agreed on a salary of $1.75MM, per Heyman. Having signed a minor league deal in the offseason, Farmer made the Opening Day roster but was DFA’d in May and re-signed. He got back onto the roster in July and finished strong. At the end of the year, he had 47 innings with a 3.83 ERA.

Mets Re-Sign Edwin Diaz

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November 17: Jon Heyman of The New York Post provides a full breakdown. Diaz will make $17.25MM in 2023 and 2024 with $5.5MM deferred with no interest. He will get a bump to $17.5MM in 2025 with $5.5MM deferred. Then he’ll get $18.5MM in 2026 and 2027 with $5MM deferred. The club option is for $20.4MM and has a $1MM buyout.

November 9: The Mets have officially announced the deal. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has more details on the deferred money, noting that it will be $5.5MM per year for the first three seasons and then $5MM per year for the last two. This means his CBT number will be $18.6MM (Twitter links).

November 6: The Mets have kicked off the off-season in spectacular fashion, inking superstar closer Edwin Diaz to a record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal. The deal comes with a $12MM signing bonus, full no-trade clause and has a team option for a sixth year which could take the total value of the deal to $122MM. Diaz will also have the ability to opt out of the contract after the third season, when he’ll be approaching his age-32 season. $26.5MM of Diaz’s salary is deferred. Diaz is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract takes one of the top free agents off the board before free agency opens on Thursday afternoon, and it also sets a new standard as the biggest contract even given to a relief pitcher in terms of both total value and average annual value. Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM contract was the previous benchmark for total value, while Liam Hendriks’ ongoing three-year deal with the White Sox had given him the previous AAV high of $18MM.

Diaz, 28, was lights out for the Mets in 2022, tossing 62 innings of 1.30 ERA ball. He struck out more than half of the batters he faced, while walking just 7.7% of batters. He gave up just three home runs all year, and converted 32 of his 35 save opportunities. His fastball/slider combo has always been a nightmare for opposition batters, but he leaned far more heavily on his slider in 2022, going to it 58.1% of the time against his usual usage in the mid-30s, and the results were staggering. He led the majors in reliever ERA, strikeout rate and reliever fWAR. The strikeout rate was so dominant it tied Craig Kimbrel’s 2012 effort for the third best strikeout rate of qualified relievers in MLB history. Only Aroldis Chapman’s 52.5% mark in 2014 is better, but that came against an 11.9% walk rate, well above Diaz’s rate this season.

Though Diaz established himself as the best reliever in baseball this season, the deal does present a fair degree of risk particularly given Diaz’s career as a whole has been something of a roller-coaster. After being drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Mariners, Diaz emerged as powerhouse arm out of Seattle’s bullpen. He averaged a 2.64 ERA over three seasons in Seattle, highlighted by a phenomenal 2018 season that saw him notch 57 saves, while posting a 1.96 ERA and finishing eighth in AL Cy Young voting. That prompted the Mets to acquire him that off-season, sending over their own top prospect Jarred Kelenic and taking on the bulk of Robinson Cano’s hefty contract to get him. That off-season blockbuster also featured Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista.

The deal looked a shocker initially, as Diaz pitched to a 5.59 ERA in his first season in Queens. He maintained his strong strikeout rates, but struggled mightily with the long ball, giving up an average of 2.3 home runs every nine innings. He could have been an outside non-tender candidate that winter, but the Mets stuck with him, and their decision paid off immediately. Diaz bounced back in the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, curing his long ball problems and posting the best strikeout rate at that point of his career. He experienced a slight dip in 2021, posting a 3.45 ERA, although advanced indicators such as FIP suggested his performance was largely in line with his previous season (2.48 in ’21 against 2.18 in ’20).

Diaz has become a legitimate superstar of the sport in Queens. His performance speaks for itself, but his entrance to trumpets at Citi Field captivated all of sports and sparked a number of other theatrical entrances that look to mimic the atmosphere that Diaz’s entrance creates. While no reliever is a sure thing, Diaz is the best in the game at what he does, and Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness make money a non-issue when it comes to signing, or in this case re-signing, the game’s top talent.

It’s the first move in what could be a busy off-season for the Mets. Both their rotation and bullpen will significant addressing. Diaz was set to join Tommy Hunter, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams as relievers headed for free agency, while Mychal Givens has a mutual option for next year, meaning they effectively have to rebuild their bullpen entirely. Diaz is a major piece of that, but the Mets will still be heavily active in the relief market this winter. On the rotation side of things, Chris Bassitt has already declined his mutual option and will be a free agent, while Jacob deGrom is expected to confirm he’ll opt into free agency in the coming days. Taijuan Walker has a $7.5MM player option with a $3MM buyout, while Carlos Carrasco has a $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout, so the team could be seeking a number of starters as well. That’s not even getting into the offensive side of the ball, where the Mets will lose outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Tyler Naquin.

It shapes up as another busy off-season, and one which could see the Mets payroll soar to even greater heights. Cohen has never seemed too concerned with the payroll, but RosterResource has the Mets payroll at $251MM for 2023 currently, although that figure doesn’t assume deGrom will opt out. Even so, the team spent $282MM in 2022 on player payroll, and there’s definitely a path to them spending that or more in 2023 if they’re serious about competing in the tough NL East.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report that Diaz and the Mets were close to a deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the deal was done and included an option, opt-out and no-trade clause. Tim Healey of Newsday had financial details of the option year and the time of the opt-out. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had details of the signing bonus, while SNY’s Andy Martino reported about the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Interested In Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez

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Earlier this week, catcher Willson Contreras was one of 12 players to reject a qualifying offer, officially allowing the Cubs to recoup draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. As a team that did not pay the competitive balance tax or receive revenue sharing, the Cubs would be entitled to an extra pick just before the third round. That seems to be their goal, as contract talks with Contreras never seemed to gain much momentum and they are now discussing other backstops such as free agents Omar Narváez and Christian Vázquez, according to a report from Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. There’s nothing yet to indicate they have reached out to the players or their representatives, but the fact that other catchers have been “discussed internally” by the Cubs is nonetheless notable.

Since a Contreras reunion doesn’t seem to be in the cards, the Cubs are currently lined up to go into 2023 with three catchers on their 40-man roster: Yan Gomes, P.J. Higgins and Miguel Amaya. Gomes is a veteran going into his 12th MLB season, which will also be the second of the two-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Cubs a year ago. Once that deal was signed, speculation mounted that the Cubs were set to deal Contreras, though that didn’t come pass. Gomes took a step back at the plate in 2022 but was still solid on the other side of the ball. He hit .235/.260/.365 for a wRC+ of 73 but posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved in just 86 games. He could still be a factor for 2023 but he’ll turn 36 during the year and then become a free agent again, meaning he likely won’t be part of the club’s long-term plans.

Higgins, 30 in May, has done some hitting in the minors but hasn’t been able to transfer that to the big leagues just yet. In 83 career games, his batting line is .210/.291/.348 for a wRC+ of 83. He posted a -6 DRS behind the plate and actually spent more time at the infield corners, meaning he’s likely considered more of a third string/emergency catcher.

Amaya, 24 in March, could be a long-term solution but has question marks in the short term. He’s considered one of the club’s top 15 prospects by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. However, he dealt with forearm issues in 2021 and ultimately required Tommy John surgery. He returned to the field this year and got into 40 games in the minors but hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2019 and has yet to reach Triple-A. It’s possible he gets to the MLB level in 2023 but it doesn’t seem like something that should be expected or relied upon.

Even though the club seems content to let Contreras walk and recoup the draft pick when he signs elsewhere, they will likely need to do something to supplement this group. Vázquez is arguably the second-best free agent backstop behind Contreras, having been Boston’s regular catcher over the past few years. He’s hit around league average in that time, producing a .271/.318/.416 batting line from 2019 through the present for a wRC+ of 95. He’s also provided quality defense and is considered to be an all-around contributor. He was traded to the Astros at the deadline and served as Martin Maldonado’s backup in Houston, though he’s looking for a full-time job again going forward. That perhaps make him and the Cubs a less-than-perfect fit, given the presence of Gomes, though it’s possible Vázquez would be fine with sharing time in a similar manner to what Contreras and Gomes did in 2022. MLBTR predicted Vázquez could earn a contract of $27MM over three years.

As for Narváez, 31 in February, he will likely be attainable with a lesser commitment than Vázquez would take. Considered a bat-first catcher for the early part of his career, he came to the Brewers and flipped that. He’s posted strong defensive numbers in each of the past three years but hit .233/.318/.350 for a wRC+ of 85. However, as a left-handed hitter, he would pair well with the Cubs’ incumbent catchers, all of whom hit from the right side. He didn’t have strong platoon splits in 2022 but his career numbers definitely favor his work against righties.

Although Narváez and Vázquez were mentioned by name, the Cubs have surely discussed various other scenarios. The rest of the free agent market includes names like Gary Sánchez, Austin Hedges and Roberto Pérez. There’s also the trade market to consider, with Sean Murphy of the Athletics frequently mentioned in rumors and the Blue Jays looking to cash in their surplus. Whichever route they take, the Cubs shouldn’t have financial concerns. The ongoing rebuild means their current payroll is well below previous seasons, and none of the non-Contreras options will require huge expenditures regardless. They will have competition, however, with the Cardinals being one team that’s already known to be looking for catching help.

Rockies, Dinelson Lamet Avoid Arbitration

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November 17: Lamet will make $5MM in 2023, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

November 16: The Rockies announced that they have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with right-hander Dinelson Lamet, avoiding arbitration. The terms have not yet been revealed but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $4.8MM.

Lamet, 30, has been on a bit of a roller coaster in the past few years. In the shortened 2020 season, he seemingly broke out with an excellent campaign with the Padres. He made 12 starts and threw 69 innings, posting a 2.09 ERA along with a 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate.

Unfortunately, the next two years saw him fall from those incredible heights. A forearm issue sent him to the injured list twice in 2021, limiting him to just 47 innings on the year, which included a move to the bullpen. The Padres kept him as a reliever going into 2022, but Lamet didn’t take to the new role. He posted a 9.49 ERA over 12 1/3 innings before getting flipped to the Brewers as part of the Josh Hader trade.

Lamet never pitched for the Brewers, as they designated him for assignment just two days after acquiring him. David Stearns, who was Milwaukee’s president of baseball operations at the time, said that Lamet “was included in the trade to help balance out the deal” but that “as subsequent transactions played out, the roster fit became a little tougher.” It’s possible that the Brewers just took on Lamet to offset some salary for the Padres or that their subsequent acquisitions of Trevor Rosenthal and Matt Bush squeezed him out of their plans. Either way, the Rockies were the beneficiary as they claimed him off waivers.

Lamet had a much stronger second half after joining the Rockies. He got into 19 games for them and threw 20 innings, posting a 4.05 ERA in that time. His strikeout rate jumped to 33.3% after being at 25.8% with San Diego. He also dropped his walk rate from 14.5% to 11.5%.

The Rockies often struggle to attract pitchers to join their club, given the hitter-friendly nature of their home ballpark. By claiming Lamet off waivers, they’ve grabbed a guy who had a dominant 2020 season and, though he seemed lost for a while, finished 2022 on a strong note. If he can recapture his past form, he could be a valuable piece for the club.

A’s Claim Brent Rooker

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The Athletics announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker off waivers from the Royals. Kansas City designated Rooker for assignment earlier in the week.

Rooker, 28, was the No. 35 overall draft pick by the division-rival Twins back in 2017. The hope was that the former Mississippi State slugger could be a quick-the-Majors source of pop for the Twins, and that proved to be partially true. Rooker mashed his way through the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A by the 2019 season and hitting .281/.398/.535 through 274 plate appearances there. Minnesota gave him a brief big league look during the shortened 2020 season, and Rooker responded with a 6-for-19 showing, including a homer and a pair of doubles.

Unfortunately, that brief production didn’t carry over into a larger sample in 2021. Rooker remained productive in Triple-A (.245/.367/.564, 20 homers in 62 games) but managed only a .201/.291/.397 slash with an ugly 32.9% strikeout rate in 213 plate appearances at the MLB level in 2021. The Twins sent Rooker to San Diego alongside Taylor Rogers in the trade that brought Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to Minnesota, and Rooker again thrived in Triple-A while struggling in limited MLB action.

Overall, Rooker is a .200/.289/.379 hitter in 270 Major League plate appearances but a .274/.387/.590 hitter in 906 Triple-A plate appearances. While he’s seen time both in left field and at first base in his career, however, scouting reports at the time of the draft called it a stretch for him to ever be a full-time outfielder, and that’s just how things have played out so far. In just 386 2/3 innings in the outfield corners, Rooker has posted -11 Defensive Runs Saved, -7 Outs Above Average and a -4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Ultimately, if he’s to solidify himself in the big leagues, his bat will need to carry the day, and he’ll likely need to move to either first base or designated hitter.

Rooker has one minor league option year remaining, so the A’s will be able to shuttle him between Oakland and Triple-A Las Vegas in 2022 — assuming he lasts the whole offseason on the 40-man roster. Oakland is as good a landing spot as Rooker could have hoped for, given that the rebuilding A’s only have two set outfielders in the out-of-options Cristian Pache and Ramon Laureano — the latter of whom could be traded. Lefty-swinging Seth Brown will rotate between the outfield corners, first base and DH, but there’s clearly playing time available for Rooker if he can hit his way into a roster spot next spring.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat

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The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.

“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”

Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.

As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.

Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.

Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.

“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.

The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.

Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.

As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.

With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.

Astros To Re-Sign Rafael Montero

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November 17: Montero’s contract will see him earn $11.5MM in all three years, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

November 12: Rafael Montero and the Astros are in agreement on a three-year, $34.5MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Montero is the third elite reliever to fall off the board early, after the Padres re-signed Robert Suarez and the Mets held on to Edwin Diaz.

It’s a remarkable deal considering Montero has amassed just 0.1 bWAR over his career and had a 6.39 ERA just in 2021, but speaks to how good he’s looked since landing in Houston, and the early value teams are placing on high-end relief pitching.

Montero, 32, tossed 68 1/3 innings out of Houston’s pen this year in addition to six innings thrown late last year after coming over from Seattle, posting a 2.18 ERA in that time with a 26.8% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. He’d posted an ugly 7.27 ERA (albeit with decent peripherals) in Seattle last year, before the Astros acquired him as part of the Kendall Graveman deal. In Houston, he’s leaned more heavily on his fastball, and cut back on his sinker and slider usage. Hitters have found it incredibly difficult to square up his pitches, and he gave up just three home runs all year (and one more in the playoffs) and ranked in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity.

It’s certainly worth nothing that this isn’t the first time Montero has had a bit of success, only to crash not long after. The Rangers inked him to a minor league deal in 2019 after four unsuccessful years with the Mets that concluded with Tommy John surgery prior to the ’18 campaign. He turned into a valuable member of the Rangers bullpen that year, throwing 29 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He regressed a bit in 2020, but the Rangers were still able to flip him to the Mariners for a couple of prospects – Andres Mesa and Jose Corniell – prior to the 2021 campaign, but things would unravel for him in Seattle.

While it’s easy to look at that 2019 season with the Rangers and draw similarities to his past season with the Astros in that it’s an isolated strong season amongst a wider portfolio of poor output, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s turned a corner for good. For instance, in 2019 his peripherals were far less impressive than his actual output, and it was over a much smaller sample size (29 innings against 74 1/3 in Houston). Ultimately though, dishing out any sort of multi-year free agency deal to relievers comes with a large degree of risk, and given how tough relievers’ future performance is to predict, there’s no guarantees Montero performs like he did in 2022 over the life of this deal.

This deal locks up a key contributor from their World Series winning team, but it’s curious to see a major deal like this done one day after the team moved on from their general manager. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus are running the day-to-day operations for the Astros after the departure of James Click, although Rome adds that that doesn’t necessarily mean those two were responsible for the Montero deal.

Houston’s projected payroll now sits at $164MM per RosterResource, about $15MM shy of their 2022 mark. There’s every chance they bring back Justin Verlander, while they could seek additions at center field, catcher and first base, so there’s a strong possibility their payroll comfortably eclipses the $179MM mark from 2022.

Their bullpen was one of the strengths of their championship roster this past season, and with the likes of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris and the now-returning Montero it’s shaping up to be one of the best in baseball again.

It also bodes well for other top relievers on the market. Montero’s $34.5MM deal follows on from Suarez’ five-year, $46MM contract with the Padres and Diaz’s record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets. On the whole, relievers are being paid handsomely to kick off free agency this year, and the agents of pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Kenley Jansen will surely be pointing teams to these deals as price points when going into negotiations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLB Awards 2024 All-Star Game To Texas Rangers

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MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred announced today that the Texas Rangers will host the 2024 All-Star festivities. The 94th “midsummer classic” will be held July 16th of that year.

This will be the second time the Rangers have played host to the game, though it will be the first at Globe Life Field, which opened in 2020. The only other time the club hosted was in 1995, at the Ballpark in Arlington.

“Major League Baseball is pleased to award the 2024 All-Star Game to the Rangers and the Cities of Arlington and Fort Worth, which presented a robust bid for All-Star Week,” Manfred says in the statement. “The Rangers stepped up under difficult circumstances and Globe Life Field served as terrific host for the 2020 Postseason, including the World Series. We are excited to once again feature Baseball’s newest ballpark on a global stage next summer.”

The next two All-Star games will be hosted by AL West teams, since the Seattle Mariners are hosting the 2023 contest. The 2025 host has not yet been announced, but 2026 will be in Philadelphia to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Marlins Hire Jeff Conine As Special Assistant

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The Marlins are bringing Jeff Conine back to the organization, according to Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Conine will work as a special assistant to owner Bruce Sherman.

Conine, 56, had a 17-year MLB career as a player, with most of that time spent as a Marlin. He was actually an original member of the franchise, having been selected in the expansion draft in 1992. He stayed with the club through 1997, helping them win their first World Series title in the last year of that stretch. After some time with the Royals and Orioles, he came back to Miami  in 2003, helping them win their second title, and stayed through 2005. He then bounced around for a few more seasons before signing a one-day contract with the Marlins in March of 2008 and then retired.

In his post-playing days, Conine has worked as a special assistant to the club but he departed the organization in 2017. When Jeffrey Loria sold the team to a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Conine and several other special assistants were fired but then confusingly approached by Jeter with new job offers. At that time, Conine turned down that offer and explained that he was offered a role with less responsibility than he previously held. It’s unknown exactly what kind of role he will be stepping into now but “Mr. Marlin” has nonetheless returned to the organization with which he’s synonymous. He will now have the same employer as his son Griffin Conine, who was traded from the Blue Jays to the Marlins in 2020.

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