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Tigers Hire Mark Conner As Amateur Scouting Director

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11:50am: The Tigers have confirmed Conner’s hiring.

8:36am: The Tigers have made another addition to their front office this offseason, reportedly plucking Mark Conner from the Padres to serve as the team’s amateur scouting director under recently hired assistant general manager Rob Metzler, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Conner joined the Padres as an amateur scout in 2010 and was promoted to northeast regional supervisor in 2014 before eventually serving as the club’s scouting director during the 2015-2021 seasons. With the Padres, Conner helped draft Robert Hassell, CJ Abrams, Ryan Weathers, and MacKenzie Gore. He transitioned to a special assistant role for GM A.J. Preller in September 2021 and was given the task of evaluating every player within San Diego’s farm system.

The Tigers had been looking for a new scouting director since early October, when the new president of baseball operations Scott Harris fired Scott Pleis. Pleis had held the title of amateur scouting director since 2010. Conner inherits a rather poorly ranked Tigers farm system, with only three prospects in MLB.com’s Top-100 Prospect Rankings after the recent graduations of Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. However, the team will have a strong draft pick after finishing the 2022 season with a 66-96 record. MLB.com projects that the Tigers have the sixth-highest chance (7.5%) of landing the first overall pick in the 2023 draft.

Conner’s addition to the Tiger’s front office is another retooling of the staff built by former general manager Al Avila. Recent additions include Scott Harris as president of baseball operations and Rob Metzler as vice president and assistant general manager. Additionally, the team is looking to add a general manager.

In the dugout, manager A.J. Hinch has also been hard at work retooling his staff, with hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh and quality control coach Josh Paul both departing the organization.

David Robertson Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Veteran reliever David Robertson recently expressed his intent to pitch during the 2023 season, stating that he feels “feels like next season will be a lot easier and I’ll be more prepared,” as reported by The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham.

After pitching to a 2.76 ERA in 626 2/3 innings (with 137 saves) from 2009-2018, Robertson joined the Phillies ahead of the 2019 season on a two-year, $23MM deal with a $12MM club option for the 2021 season ($2MM buyout). However, after only seven appearances, Robertson underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery and suffered a setback during his rehab, forcing him to miss the entire 2020 season. His club option was subsequently declined by the Phillies.

After missing the prior two seasons, the righty pivoted to the Olympics and helped Team USA qualify for the Tokyo Games. In the break before the games, the righty signed with the High Point Rockers of the Atlantic League and pitched a handful of innings. Returning home with a silver medal, Robertson joined the Rays on a major league contract and reported to Triple-A Durham before joining the major league team in September. With the Rays, Robertson pitched 12 innings, allowing 6 earned runs, and striking out 16 of the 50 batters he faced. He was selected to the Rays’ post-season roster, pitching four scoreless innings in the ALDS against the Red Sox.

After the 2021 season, Robertson signed a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Cubs, with up to $1.5MM in incentives. In Chicago, Robertson recaptured his 2000-2018 form, pitching to a 2.23 ERA with 14 saves in 40 1/3 innings, with a robust 30.9% strikeout rate and 47.8% groundball rate — albeit with a high 11.5% walk rate.

Robertson’s strong performance on a rebuilding team made him a top trade target at the deadline, and on August 2nd he was shipped to Philadelphia in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson continued his strong work with the Phillies, pitching to a 2.70 ERA in 23 1/3 innings with a 30.3% strikeout rate. However, Robertson’s walk rate increased to a high 16.2% and his groundball rate fell to 43.4%.

After missing the NLDS due to a hurt calf suffered celebrating Bryce Harper’s home run, Robertson returned to the Phillies’ bullpen, pitching 2 2/3 innings in the NLCS, allowing one run, and pitching a scoreless inning (so far) in the World Series. Robertson is a free agent when the 2022 season concludes, and joins a deep reliever market including Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, and teammate Corey Knebel.

Nolan Arenado Won’t Opt Out Of Cardinals Contract

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Nolan Arenado faced another opt-out decision this offseason, but just like last year, the star third baseman has decided to remain in St. Louis. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Arenado has informed the Cardinals he won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, and he’ll now remain with the Cards and earn $144MM over the final five years of the deal.

Since Arenado’s 2021 numbers were a bit below his usual standard (.255/.312/.494 in 653 PA), passing on the opt-out last year wasn’t too shocking, yet there was some expectation that Arenado might be tempted to test the market coming off a better platform year.  The third baseman put himself into the MVP conversation in 2022 by hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs in 620 plate appearances, and he is again a Gold Glove finalist as he looks to win his 10th consecutive award.

Nolan ArenadoArenado turns 32 in April, potentially limiting his odds of adding much in the way of years to his current pact. However, it’s easy to see how he could have surpassed his current $28.8MM average annual value. Notably, fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon managed to secure an AAV of $35MM in his seven year/$245MM contract he signed with the Angels prior to the 2020 season, while Freddie Freeman’s six year, $162MM pact with the Dodgers last winter exceeds Arenado’s current deal in terms of both years and total value.

That said, Arenado’s $144MM is hardly a minor sum, and he has often spoke about his comfort level in St. Louis and his desire to remain a long-term piece of the Cardinals’ future. With this stability already in place, Arenado chose to pass on free agency, and he can now focus entirely on 2023 without the extra drama and uncertainty that follows even the names on the open market.

With Arenado’s decision now made, the Cards have checked another major task off their offseason to-do list, a few days after re-signing Adam Wainwright for the 2023 season. The Cardinals are expected to have significant room to make additions to their payroll this season, and not having to allocate additional resources to retaining Arenado should allow St. Louis to do more to address other areas of the roster. The starting rotation and outfield are possible target areas, as well as the obvious step of finding a catcher to replace retiring franchise stalwart Yadier Molina.

As The Athletic’s Nick Groke mentions, Arenado’s decision also keeps the Rockies committed to a significant financial obligation. As per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis prior to the 2021 season, the Rockies owe the Cardinals $31.5MM to cover a portion of the third baseman’s salary —  $16MM next season, and then $5MM each year from 2024 to 2026. The $16MM slated for Arenado is more than the Rockies are paying any player on their 2023 payroll, except for Kris Bryant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Injury Notes: Canario, Davis, Amaya

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Cubs outfield prospect Alexander Canario suffered a badly fractured ankle and a dislocated shoulder during a Dominican Winter League game on Thursday, according to multiple sources (including reporter Arturo Bisono).  While trying to beat out a grounder, Canario awkwardly stepped on the bag and then fell to the ground in obvious pain.

It would seem like Canario will face a substantial amount of recovery time, though no timeline has yet been announced by the Cubs.  This is the second notable shoulder injury of Canario’s short career, as he also had surgery to fix a torn labrum in November 2020.  Between the canceled 2020 minor league season and then the recovery from his surgery, it isn’t surprising that Canario had modest numbers in 2021, playing with both the Giants’ A-ball affiliate and the Cubs’ high-A team.

Acquired from San Francisco as part of the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the 22-year-old Canario hit .252/.343/.556 with 37 homers and 23 steals (from 26 chances) over 534 combined plate appearances at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels last season.  This excellent performance sent Canario within the top 10 of Chicago prospects, as per both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline.  It also put Canario on the radar of several rival teams scouting the Cubs as possible trade partners, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, but Canario’s status as a trade chip or as a possible difference-maker in Wrigleyville is now on hold until his recovers.

Brennen Davis has also been sidelined by injury, as lower back tightness limited him to just five games in the Arizona Fall League before the Cubs shut him down.  Sharma writes that the club hadn’t determined the nature of this new injury, but it doesn’t seem similar to the problem (a vascular formation on his sciatic nerve) that required Davis to undergo back surgery in June.

A consensus pick as Chicago’s second-best prospect and a top-50 prospect in all of baseball, Davis has hit .255/.363/.444 over 906 professional PA since being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft.  Multiple injuries have slowed Davis’ progress, as beyond his back surgery, Davis has also had to recover from a concussion and broken nose (after being hit by a pitch during Spring Training), as well as finger injuries in 2019.

Despite all these setbacks, Davis was still moving up the minor league ladder and playing well, before his back problems led to a down year in 2022 and a probable promotion to the majors.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are still expected to place Davis on the 40-man roster this winter, since even with the back concerns, he would surely be taken in the Rule 5 Draft.

Miguel Amaya was placed on the 40-man back in November 2019, yet the catching prospect has barely played in the following three years.  Beyond the canceled 2020 minors season, Amaya was limited to 23 games in 2021 and then 40 games in 2022 due largely to a forearm strain that resulted in Tommy John surgery.  Once Amaya made it back this season, he was limited to DH duty, and then his path back to catching was halted when he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot in mid-September.

“My offseason focus is to be the best version of me for 2023, and whatever happens, happens,” Amaya told Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Sun-Times.  “I just want to be healthy to show everyone who Miguel Amaya is and just have fun and play the baseball I know.”

Amaya has been limited to shoulder and elbow exercises while his foot heals, and while he hasn’t much recent contact with Willson Contreras, Amaya also cited the veteran catcher as an important mentor during his development.  In theory, Amaya might’ve already established himself as Contreras’ replacement if healthy, as Contreras is headed into free agency this winter.  A top-100 prospect prior to his Tommy John surgery, Amaya might be a factor for the big league roster later in 2023, though he has only 51 games at the Double-A level and nothing in Triple-A.

White Sox No Longer Considering Joe Espada In Managerial Search

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Astros bench coach Joe Espada is no longer a candidate to become the next White Sox manager, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reports.  Espada was reportedly a finalist for the Marlins’ job before Miami hired Skip Schumaker earlier this week, and he hasn’t been linked to the Royals, the only other team still looking for a new manager.  As a result, it looks like Espada will again come up short in a bid for his first Major League managerial job, after previously being considered by such teams as the Mets, Giants, Athletics, Twins, and Cubs over the last few seasons.

The 47-year-old Espada has been Houston’s bench coach for the last five seasons, the Yankees’ third base coach/infield coach from 2015-17, and the Marlins’ third base coach from 2010-13.  Prior to his first big league posting, Espada also worked as a coach and coordinator for several years in the Marlins farm system.  There has been speculation that the Astros might’ve been grooming Espada to step into their managerial post if Dusty Baker wasn’t retained or if the 73-year-old Baker decided to retire, but since Houston is reportedly interested in bringing Baker back in 2023, Espada might have to wait at least one more year if the Astros job is indeed a possibility.

Espada, Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol, and former White Sox and Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen are the only candidates confirmed to have interviewed for the White Sox job.  Reports surfaced last week that the Sox had interest in speaking with Guillen about a possible return, and NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien reported that Guillen’s interview took place last Monday.

Beyond that trio, interim manager Miguel Cairo and Braves third base coach Ron Washington were also known to be under consideration, though it isn’t known if the Sox have actually spoken with either candidate.  One would imagine Cairo has already met with the team at some point in the last few weeks, since as Merkin notes, White Sox GM Rick Hahn said during his season wrap-up press conference on October 3 that Cairo would get an interview.

With this uncertainty still surrounding the search, it isn’t known if the White Sox have any other interviews lined up, or if they’re approaching any sort of “finalist” stage.  It is possible the Sox might be waiting until the World Series is over (or at least for the Series’ scheduled off-days on October 30 or November 3) to make an official announcement, if they are indeed close to a decision.

Rob Manfred: “I’m Not Positive” About Athletics’ Chances Of Remaining In Oakland

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9:00PM: Schaaf addressed Manfred’s comments in a statement to the media (including Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle), saying “I appreciate Commissioner Manfred’s kind words about my role as champion of a new waterfront ballpark for our Oakland A’s.  I spoke with him today and assured him that I remain absolutely confident our deal in Oakland will get done next year even with new leadership in place.  The A’s are continuing to invest tremendous resources into an Oakland deal.  We are working together every day to realize our shared vision for a vibrant waterfront neighborhood with public parks, good jobs, affordable housing and an iconic home for our Oakland A’s.”

5:10PM: Rob Manfred discussed a variety of topics in an interview with Chris Russo on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM yesterday, including the commissioner’s latest thoughts on the Athletics’ and Rays’ ongoing attempts to build new ballparks (and thus remaining in their current cities or markets).  Since the Athletics’ lease at the RingCentral Coliseum is up after the 2024 season, there is more of a ticking clock to determine their fate, whether the result is the A’s staying in Oakland at the long-gestating Howard Terminal site, or perhaps moving to a new city altogether.

While some steps have been taken this year towards getting the Howard Terminal project off the ground, quite a number of logistical and financial hurdles remain, as outlined last month by Sarah Ravani of the San Francisco Chronicle.  As a result, Manfred is “not positive” about the chances of the A’s staying put: “I think the mayor in Oakland has made a huge effort to try to get it done in Oakland.  It just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen….Something has to happen. We can’t go five more years in the Coliseum.”

Mayor Libby Schaaf is nearing the end of her second term in office, and is ineligible to run again in the upcoming Oakland mayoral election on November 8.  The Athletics’ ballpark proposal (and, more importantly, what civic funds will be involved in the construction process) is only one of several major issues facing Oakland voters, and it is possible an incoming administration might have a differing view on the project altogether.

Oakland mayoral candidate and current city councilor Loren Taylor told NBC Sports Bay Area’s Angelina Martin that “we have a number of points that still need to be worked out before a final decision, not the least of which is the gap on infrastructure [costs] offsite”  In regards to the lack of fresh information about the ballpark, Taylor notes that “by some accounts, maybe less noise outside means that we’re getting more work done behind closed doors.”

This is far from the first time that Manfred has publicly weighed in about the A’s and their quest for a new stadium, and even the new Collective Bargaining Agreement contained language concerning the Athletics’ ballpark as a factor in their status as a revenue-sharing recipient.  Manfred’s statements to Russo could certainly be interpreted as some public pressure on Oakland city leaders, in addition to simply being the commissioner’s personal opinion on how the situation will play out.

“Given the lack of pace in Oakland, I think [the A’s] have to look for an alternative,” Manfred said, in regards to how the team has been looking into Las Vegas in particular as a possible new destination.  However, Manfred was more bullish on the Rays’ chances of remaining, saying that “Tampa’s a viable Major League market” in need of “a properly located facility.”

“I see Tampa differently….I’ve got a lot of faith in [Rays owner] Stu Sternberg.  I think they will find a place to get a ballpark built and I think baseball can thrive in Tampa,” Manfred said.

Last winter, MLB’s Executive Council rejected the Rays’ proposal to split time between Montreal and the Tampa area, ending the most unusual of the many ballpark plans floated by the Rays as they look for an alternative to Tropicana Field.  These plans have included the exploration of sites in both Tampa and St. Petersburg, ranging from waterfront ballpark concepts to a new stadium (and a “ballpark village” shopping/business/restaurant/housing district) on the Tropicana Field grounds.  There is a little more time for the Rays to figure something out, as their next at the Trop isn’t up until the end of the 2027 season.

Royals Considering Will Venable For Managerial Job

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Red Sox bench coach/outfield instructor Will Venable is one of the candidates to be the Royals’ new manager, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  Venable is a new addition to a field known to include several internal candidates (K.C. bench coach Pedro Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson and Triple-A manager Scott Thorman) as well as Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough.

It is possible other names are still under consideration, though it does seem like the Royals might be nearing the final stages of their search, as Heyman writes that “Quatraro has been seen as the favorite” and past reports have suggested McCullough as a finalist.  Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan also interviewed with the Royals but is now out of the running after signing a contract extension to remain in Philadelphia.

Venable (who celebrates his 40th birthday today) is known by most fans for his nine-year playing career, which saw him suit up for eight seasons with the Padres and brief stints with the Rangers and Dodgers from 2008-16.  Moving almost directly into a new role as a coach, Venable was on the Cubs’ staff from 2018-20 as a first base and third base coach, and then took his current role as Alex Cora’s right-hand man prior to the 2021 season.

With more teams frequently looking to hire younger managers only recently removed from their playing days, Venable has been a popular interview candidate for the last few cycles’ worth of managerial searches.  The Athletics, Giants, Astros, and Tigers all spoke with Venable in regards to recent openings in the dugout, and the Red Sox themselves interviewed Venable for the manager’s job before re-hiring Cora, though the Sox were obviously still impressed enough to bring Venable on board as bench coach.

Of the six known candidates in the Royals’ search, none have previously worked as a Major League manager on anything more than a fill-in basis.  (For instance, Venable served as Boston’s manager for a few games earlier this season when Cora was sidelined with COVID-19.)  Barring any other experienced skippers surfacing in the search, it would appear as though new Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo is favoring a first-time manager as the replacement for Mike Matheny.

Dodgers Interested In Carlos Correa

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After being eliminated from the postseason in 5 games by the division rival Padres, the Dodgers have turned their focus to the offseason earlier than expected coming off a 111-win campaign. This offseason is sure to be a significant one for the Dodgers, as Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, and Craig Kimbrel are among their players who will test free agency this offseason, with it also being possible that Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger depart in the event that the Dodgers decline Turner’s club option and non-tender Bellinger.

Even with so much potential roster churn this offseason, shortstop appears to be the biggest question mark for LA headed into 2023 given Turner’s pending free agency. Even as Jon Heyman of the New York Post and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya both mention Turner’s willingness to sign with the club long term, Heyman mentions that the Dodgers “appear to have landed on” Carlos Correa as their preferred replacement for Turner in free agency while Ardaya notes that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been non-committal about continuing to spend well above the luxury tax going forward and has mentioned a desire to integrate the talent LA has at the upper levels of its farm system into the 2023 big league club.

As Ardaya notes, however, Jacob Amaya is the only shortstop in that group of upper-minors talent Friedman noted, and he was below average offensively at Triple-A this season, slashing just .259/.368/.381 across 84 games in the offense-heavy Pacific Coast League. Thus, it’s worth looking more closely at the fit between Correa and the Dodgers.

At first glance, Correa may seem to be Turner’s equal or superior in most regards. Correa’s .291/.366/.467 slash line in 2022 shows him to have slightly outproduced Turner on a rate basis this season, as Turner slashed a slightly less impressive .298/.343/.466. Looking under the hood, it would also appear that Turner has more luck baked into his numbers this season than Correa, with Turner’s wOBA of .350 slightly outpacing his xwOBA of .335, whereas Correa’s .362 wOBA is a near match for his .363 xwOBA. In addition to comparing favorably to Turner with the bat, Correa’s reputation with the glove far outstrips that of Turner, as Correa has frequently rated well with defensive metrics throughout his career and even won the Platinum Glove in the AL last season.

Correa is also a bit over a year younger than Turner, who will celebrate his 30th birthday next June. That age gap should mean that Correa will project more favorably going forward than Turner. The Dodgers may also have interest in Correa due to his track record in the playoffs. After 334 trips to the plate during the postseason, Correa has posted identical marks of 130 wRC+ in both regular and postseason play, whereas Turner has managed a wRC+ of just 62 across his 197 postseason plate appearances.

Despite all these points in Correa’s favor, the comparison between him and Turner is far from cut-and-dry. While defensive metrics have significantly favored Correa in the past, they’ve soured on him in 2022, with OAA in particular strongly preferring Turner to Correa this past season. Turner is also among the best baserunners in the league, having swiped 230 bases in his career, including 27 in 2022. Correa, meanwhile, was caught stealing in his only 2022 attempt, and has rated negatively according to Fangraphs’s baserunning metric in each of the past three years.

Additionally, while Turner is a year older than Correa, he’s also been far more reliable in terms of staying on the field throughout his career. Turner has made just two trips to the injured list since the start of the 2018 season, while Correa had that many stints on the IL in 2022 alone. 2017 represents the only year of Turner’s career where he spent significant time on the IL, whereas Correa has spent significant time on the IL in 2017 and 2019 in addition to shorter stints each of the past two seasons. Even in a mostly healthy 2022 season, Correa took 118 less trips to the plate than Turner, whose 708 plate appearances were tied for second in all of baseball this season.

Correa and Turner aren’t the only options for the Dodgers this offseason, however. Of course, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts are expected to join Correa and Turner at the top of the free agent shortstop class this offseason, so it’s also feasible the Dodgers could explore signing either of them. Ardaya suggests that LA could look to utilize their farm system depth to explore the trade market in search of their new shortstop, and mentions Milwaukee’s Willy Adames as a possibility. Speculatively speaking, swinging a trade for a lower-cost option at shortstop could leave payroll space open for a potential pursuit of Aaron Judge, who the Dodgers have previously been reported to have interest in.

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