Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Red Sox Not Planning To Extend A Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

By | at

The Red Sox are not planning to extend a qualifying offer to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report comes at what may be the beginning of an offseason of transition in Boston. With Xander Bogaerts’ opt-out clause looming and extension talks with Rafael Devers having yet to yield any results, Martinez could be one of multiple all-stars whose time in Boston may soon come to an end.

Martinez, age 35, is coming off of his fifth season with Boston, during which he played 139 games and slashed .274/.341/.448. Though Martinez rated as a well above average offensive player by wRC+ (119), his 16 2022 home runs are his fewest in a season since 2013. 2022 was also the first season in Martinez’s career that the five-time all-star did not log a single inning at a defensive position, as Alex Cora used him exclusively as a designated hitter. Martinez ought to have no problem finding employment next season, however. He has been one of the most consistent and productive hitters over the last decade, averaging 26 home runs and a .293 average since 2013.

MLBTR ranks Martinez as the best full-time DH available this offseason. He will headline a DH-class that includes other options such as Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz. Full-time DH’s have reduced earning power compared to other free agents due to their limited defense. The market for this player prototype has the potential to appeal any club looking for a discounted injection of offense without shuffling their defensive alignment. Assured production is paramount when a team decides to commit substantial resources to an offense-only player. Out of the three, Martinez is by far the surest bet. The contrast of Carpenter’s herculean summer with the Yankees and his paltry 2019-2021 leaves uncertainty about in his ability to produce going forward. Carpenter does have the ability to play some defense, however, having lined up at all four corner positions in 2022. Cruz looked ageless until last season, when he experienced substantial drops in hard-contact rate and exit velocity in the midst of his worst offensive season ever as a big league regular.

As the market’s best full-time DH, there ought to be plenty of teams looking to add some thump to their lineup that will consider signing Martinez. Logical suitors may theoretically include the Diamondbacks, who are looking for a right-handed bat, per Heyman, and the Marlins, who plan to address their weak offense this offseason. That being said, any team that may be inclined to add a full-time DH figures to have interest in Martinez on a one or two-year deal with an AAV below the qualifying offer worth $19.65 MM.

It is also possible that Martinez winds up back with Boston, despite the fact that the Red Sox are not planning to extend him a qualifying offer. Chaim Bloom’s decision to not tie draft pick compensation to Martinez’s free agency is likely to be rooted in the Sox’ evaluation of what Martinez could be worth in 2023, as opposed to whether or not they he would like to keep him on Boston’s roster. Martinez has been well worth the 5-year, $110MM deal he signed with the Red Sox in the 2017-2018 offseason and has given every indication that he can still be a productive DH. If Martinez does not receive a qualifying offer, it would indicate Bloom’s unwillingness to pay a full-time DH, albeit a productive one, a salary of $19.65 MM. It could also signify Bloom’s desire to provide consistent opportunity for some of Boston’s core of young first baseman/DH types, like Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. They also have Eric Hosmer on the roster, though it’s unclear how committed they are to him. With the Padres paying down the majority of his contract, Boston is only on the hook for the league minimum salary and could cut ties if they found options they liked better.

In a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster on October 6, Martinez expressed gratitude to his teammates and to Boston fans for their support, adding that he’ll “see what happens” in free agency (via Twitter). If he does wind up back with the Red Sox, it will be interesting to see how close Martinez’s new salary will come to the $19.65 MM figure that the Boston appears unlikely to offer him.

Previewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher

By and | at

MLBTR has gone around the diamond with a position-by-position look at this winter’s free agent class. With all the hitters now covered, we turn our attention to the pitching. This offseason’s starting pitching class features a handful of the game’s highest-upside arms at the top and a seemingly endless supply of back-of-the-rotation innings-eaters beyond them.

Opt-Out Aces

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. His fastball regularly pushes triple-digits, and he backs it up with a power slider that averaged an absurd 92.6 MPH this past season. No pitcher comes close to matching deGrom’s ability to miss bats, and the two-time Cy Young winner has never posted a single-season ERA higher than 3.53. This year’s 3.08 ERA through 64 1/3 frames is actually the second-highest mark of his career, but that’s largely attributable to some late-season homer troubles that aren’t likely to alarm teams. He fanned 42.7% of opposing hitters against just a 3.3% walk percentage.

While there’s no question about deGrom’s performance, he’ll hit the market with some concerns about his durability. He missed over a full calendar year between July 2021 and this past August due to various arm issues. After battling elbow discomfort late last season, he lost the first half of the 2022 campaign to a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade). deGrom returned brandishing the same otherworldly raw stuff and finished the season healthy, but between the truncated 2020 schedule and the various ailments the past two years, he’s made just 38 combined starts since the start of 2020.

Between the injury history and deGrom’s age — he turns 35 next June — it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to top three years on the open market. There’s no question he’ll find one of the loftiest average annual salaries ever, and he’ll have a strong case to top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV for the all-time record. deGrom is a lock to opt out of the $32.5MM remaining on his deal with the Mets before receiving and rejecting a qualifying offer.

Rodon had a breakout 2021 season with the White Sox, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while striking out 34.6% of opponents. He missed a few weeks late that summer with shoulder soreness, though, and his velocity was down a few ticks when he made his return. It earned him an All-Star nod and a fifth-place Cy Young finish, but there seemed enough trepidation about the health of his shoulder he didn’t find a long-term deal to his liking.

The southpaw bet on himself, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. His season in San Francisco was arguably even better than his final year on the South Side of Chicago. Rodon avoided the injured list (aside from a season-ending stint related to a pre-planned innings limit) and made a career-high 31 starts. Through 178 innings, he posted a 2.88 ERA while punching out more than a third of opponents. His fastball velocity held steady in the 95-96 MPH range, and he got swinging strikes on more than 14% of his offerings for a second straight season.

This time around, Rodon should find the megadeal that eluded him last winter. He’s certain to decline the final $22.5MM on his deal with San Francisco and set out in search of a five-plus year pact that tops the deals awarded to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray a year ago. Rodon will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

Verlander missed almost two full seasons from 2020-21 working back from Tommy John surgery. The Astros kept close tabs on his rehab and were sufficiently bullish on his outlook to guarantee him $25MM to return for this season. That deal also contained a $25MM player option conditional on reaching 130 innings, but there’s no chance Verlander exercises that. The Astros’ bet on Verlander paid off better than even the club could’ve reasonably expected, as he’s likely headed to a third Cy Young after pitching to a 1.75 ERA over 175 frames.

While his strikeout rate was down a few points relative to his pre-surgery form, Verlander still fanned a strong 27.8% of opponents against a tiny 4.4% walk rate. His fastball velocity was back in the 95 MPH range. He missed a few weeks late in the year with a calf issue but returned to help the Astros to an American League pennant.

It was a remarkable age-39 campaign, and Verlander joins deGrom in hitting the market with a reasonable shot at topping Scherzer’s all-time AAV. He rejected a qualifying offer last offseason and won’t be eligible for another this winter. Verlander is five years older than deGrom and three years older than Scherzer was last winter, making his free agency even more unprecedented than Scherzer’s. Will there be a three-year deal that takes the future Hall of Famer through age-42 and pushes his overall guarantee north of $100MM?

His Own Bucket

The future Hall of Famer is no longer the best pitcher on the planet, but Kershaw still provides ace-caliber production on a rate basis. Signed to a $17MM guarantee to return to Los Angeles last offseason, he responded with a 2.28 ERA through 126 1/3 frames. Kershaw punched out 27.8% of opponents and continued to demonstrate elite command while walking fewer than 5% of batters faced. Even with a fastball that averages just north of 90 MPH, he has no difficulty missing bats in bunches.

Injuries have been problematic for Kershaw in recent years. He ended 2021 on the IL with a forearm issue, and he dealt with back and hip problems this year. He’s not going to make 30+ starts annually at this stage of his career, but few pitchers are as strong a bet for 20 excellent outings. The three-time Cy Young winner has indicated he’s likely to continue pitching in 2023. The Dodgers can technically make him a qualifying offer but appear unlikely to do so as they give him time to weigh his options; they’ll assuredly look to bring him back in free agency.

NPB Star

Senga is an international free agent and will be a Wild Card entrant into this offseason’s class. He’s never played in the majors but has indicated his desire to make the jump from Japan’s NPB to the big leagues. An 11-year member of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Senga has a career 2.59 ERA in Japan’s top level. He posted a sterling 1.94 mark through 144 innings this year, striking out an impressive 27.5% of batters faced against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. Teams’ evaluations of Senga figure to vary depending on their scouts’ determination of his arsenal and command projection, but a club that thinks he’s capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB rotation could have him as the fourth or fifth-best starter on the market.

Mid-Rotation Veterans

Bassitt has been a durable, above-average starter for four straight seasons. He’s posted an ERA of 3.81 or lower every year since 2019, relying on a deep repertoire and plus control. Bassitt handles hitters from both sides of the plate, generally avoiding hard contact and pounding the strike zone. He’s consistently posted low averages on balls in play and hasn’t allowed opponents to reach base at better than a .303 clip in any of the last four years.

His 93-94 MPH fastball is solid, but Bassitt has never gotten huge swing-and-miss or chase rates. He’s not overpowering, but he’s demonstrated a consistent knack for keeping batters off balance and limiting damage. He’s earned playoff starts in both Oakland and Queens in recent years and fits well in the middle of a contending club’s rotation. Headed into his age-34 campaign, Bassitt may be limited to three-year offers, but he should find a strong annual salary over that shorter term. He’s a virtual lock to receive and decline a QO.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal with the Red Sox. He rebounded from a tough 2019 campaign to post a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past three seasons. That includes a 3.87 mark this past season, one in which he logged 109 1/3 innings. Eovaldi has never posted the elite strikeout numbers one might expect for a pitcher whose fastball typically lives in the mid-upper 90s, but he does punch batters out at a slightly above-average clip. He also has elite control and has walked fewer than 5% of opponents in each of the last three seasons. He’s a bit home run prone at times but his strong strikeout and walk profile props up solid mid-rotation production overall.

While Eovaldi has averaged north of 97 MPH on his heater for much of his career, his fastball took a slight step back to 95.7 MPH this year. Paired with his age, that’s at least a bit of a warning sign, but he still throws sufficiently hard and had a solid 2022 season when healthy. Eovaldi did battle a pair of injuries, landing on the IL twice due to inflammation in his back and throwing shoulder. The Red Sox can and seem likely to issue him a qualifying offer.

Third Tier Mid-Rotation Types

Anderson worked as an innings-eater with the Pirates and Mariners last year. After signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, he continued to soak up innings while pitching to a career-low 2.57 ERA. Anderson’s 19.5% strikeout rate is fairly modest and right in line with those of previous seasons, but he’s an excellent strike-thrower who excels at getting hitters to chase pitches outside the zone. He doesn’t throw all that hard and he’s soon to be 33 years old, although he consistently thrives at avoiding hard contact. He’s a borderline QO candidate and could land a three-year deal this winter.

Clevinger was a high-end starter during his best days with the Indians, posting an ERA between 2.71 and 3.11 each season from 2017-19. Dealt from Cleveland to San Diego midway through the 2020 campaign, the right-hander required Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) that cost him all of 2021. He made it back to the mound this year but didn’t look much like his former self, posting a 4.33 ERA with an 18.8% strikeout rate that’s nearly ten points lower than his 2017-19 mark. Clevinger was also hit hard in his two postseason outings, making it an inopportune time to hit the market. On the plus side, he still averages north of 93 MPH on his fastball and has strong control. A team that thinks he can bounce back to more closely approximate his pre-surgery form could offer multiple years.

Heaney has long tantalized teams with quality strikeout and walk numbers, but homer troubles have led to some inconsistent ERA’s over the years. That wasn’t the case in 2022, as Heaney turned in a 3.10 ERA over 72 2/3 frames on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. He flashed elite swing-and-miss stuff, fanning 35.5% of opponents on a massive 16.8% swinging strike rate. It wasn’t quite a breakout season, as the southpaw lost a few months to repeated shoulder issues. When healthy, however, he showed top-flight bat-missing ability that should land him a solid multi-year pact this offseason. He’s a borderline QO candidate.

Generally a solid mid-rotation starter in Oakland, Manaea went to San Diego during Spring Training as part of the A’s teardown. His first (and likely only) campaign as a Padre didn’t go as planned. The southpaw started the season fine but was knocked around in the second half en route to a career-worst 4.96 ERA in 158 innings. Manaea still had decent strikeout and walk numbers and an above-average 12% swinging strike rate, giving some hope for a bounceback. He’s consistently given up his fair share of hard contact, but that wasn’t so much an issue in Oakland’s spacious home ballpark. There’ll be multi-year deals out there based on his general decent track record and strikeouts, but it doesn’t seem out of the question he may prefer a one-year pact to rebuild value after a tough final few months.

A former top prospect, Perez has gotten plenty of opportunities from teams searching for the breakout season. The Rangers, his original organization, brought him back last winter and were rewarded with the awaited career year. He made 32 starts and narrowly fell shy of 200 innings while posting a stellar 2.89 ERA. The southpaw’s 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging strike percentage were still each below-average, but he showed strong control and induced grounders on over half the batted balls against him. Perez has played his way into a multi-year deal, and the Rangers could tag him with a qualifying offer. Both sides have expressed interest in hammering out an extension that keeps him in Arlington.

One of the game’s most durable and consistent starters during his peak with the White Sox and Cubs, Quintana’s production slipped in 2019 and his shortened 2020 season was mostly wiped out after a hand injury that required stitches prevented him from throwing. A 2021 rebound effort with the Halos didn’t pan out, but Quintana bounced back to his vintage form in 2022. Tossing a combined 165 2/3 innings between the Pirates and Cardinals, he logged a 2.93 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. It’s enough to put Quintana back in the mix for a two-year deal as a solid mid-rotation option.

Smyly missed more than a month of the 2022 season due to an oblique strain and averaged fewer than five innings per start when healthy enough to pitch. His results were solid, however, with a 3.47 ERA, a 20.4% strikeout rate and a terrific 5.8% walk rate. Smyly was a buzz name coming off a 37.8% strikeout rate through 26 1/3 innings with the Giants during the shortened 2020 season, but he’s notched a 4.02 ERA in 233 innings since that time. That said, Smyly’s swinging-strike rate (12.4%) and chase rate (36.4%) in 2022 suggest there could be more punchouts in the tank.

A valuable swingman for years with the Dodgers, Stripling had a tough season-plus in Toronto following a 2020 trade. Forced into the rotation on a full-time basis in 2022 when Hyun Jin Ryu required Tommy John surgery, Stripling was a godsend. The right-hander finished out the year with a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 frames, with 24 of his 32 appearances coming as a starter. Stripling has a below-average strikeout rate but showed elite command in 2022. He probably won’t replicate a 3.7% walk rate, but his career 5.7% mark shows that his plus command is real. He has a strong case for a full-time rotation job somewhere in free agency.

A borderline ace during his top seasons in Queens, Syndergaard rode an upper-90s heater and a power slider to a 3.31 ERA in 716 career innings through the end of the 2019 campaign. In Spring Training 2020, he was diagnosed with an elbow strain that required Tommy John surgery. He missed almost all of the next two years, returning for a cameo late in 2021. The Angels signed him to a $21MM deal last offseason in hopes he’d recapture his prior form, but Syndergaard served more as a solid mid-rotation control artist than a bat-missing ace. Between Anaheim and Philadelphia, he put up a 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 frames. He only punched out 16.8% of opponents, but his 5.5% walk percentage was excellent. Syndergaard’s fastball was down to the 94-95 MPH range and his slider came in just under 85 MPH. He wasn’t his peak self, but he was still an effective starter. At age 30, there’s still a chance he regains some of his pre-surgery form as he pulls further away from the procedure, but it wasn’t the dominant 2022 showing Syndergaard or the Angels were hoping to see 12 months ago.

The No. 2 overall pick in 2010 and long one of MLB’s premier pitching prospects, Taillon has put his 2019 Tommy John surgery (the second of his career) in the rearview mirror. Teams will have concerns surrounding any two-time Tommy John patient, but Taillon has pitched 321 2/3 innings over 61 starts since being traded to the Yankees two offseasons ago. In that time, he’s logged a 4.08 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout numbers and strong walk rates. Taillon has never put together an elite season as many hoped during his prospect days, but he’s also never had a truly bad season when healthy. He’s settled in as a solid third or fourth starter and should be popular among teams seeking rotation help but unwilling to spend at the top of the market.

A former first-round pick and top prospect, Wacha battled injuries through his arbitration years in St. Louis. He’s signed a trio of one-year, Major League deals in free agency despite pitching near replacement level from 2019-21. He rewarded the Red Sox’ faith, however, by tossing 127 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. Like many in this tier, Wacha has a below-average strikeout rate (20.2%) but strong command (6% walk rate). He missed more than a month this summer with shoulder troubles — not a new issue for him — but was sharp when on the mound. Several Boston beat writers have pegged Wacha as a qualifying offer candidate, and if the Sox make that $19.65MM offer he should take it. If not, he could find a multi-year deal.

Reliever/Starter Hybrids

A longtime starter with the Tigers, Boyd underwent flexor surgery late in the 2021 season. Detroit non-tendered him as a result, and he worked in relief for the final month this year with the Mariners upon returning to health. The southpaw had wobbly control but missed bats at a slightly above-average rate, as he has throughout his career. With a healthy offseason upcoming, he can could get new rotation opportunities this winter.

Eflin has been a stable back-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies for the past five years. He’s a quality strike-thrower who generates a decent number of grounders with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. As one of the younger arms on the market, he looked on his way to a strong free agent deal. Unfortunately, he missed a good chunk of this past season with a right knee injury. That’s a continuation of career-long knee issues, as Eflin has undergone surgery on both knees and been open about his longstanding battle with pain in the joints. Upon returning late in the season, Eflin has worked out of the bullpen as a reflection of the shorter rehab time. He’s been a trusted high-leverage reliever for the Phils during their postseason run. He’ll likely look to get another rotation job heading into next year, but the bullpen could be a solid fallback if he again is faced with injury setbacks.

A longtime reliever, Lorenzen set his sights on a rotation spot in free agency last winter. He got that shot with the Angels, with whom he wound up making 18 starts. The right-hander posted a 4.24 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers, although he held his mid-90s velocity in longer stints and did a decent job turning lineups over multiple times in a game. He’ll probably find some teams interested in moving him back to the bullpen, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets another rotation opportunity.

Strahm came out of the bullpen 50 times for the Red Sox this year, posting a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings. He punched out almost 27% of opponents, while showing solid control and a deeper repertoire than that possessed by most relievers. That’s relevant since Strahm has spoken about a willingness to consider rotation opportunities if those are presented. He’ll certainly draw interest as a left-handed bullpen option, but there may be enough interest to get him his first extended look as a starter since 2019, as there was with Lorenzen last winter.

Short-Term Former Stars

Cueto signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last offseason after a six-year run with the Giants. The veteran made it to the majors in mid-May and surprisingly served as one of Chicago’s more consistently effective starters. He posted a 3.35 ERA through 158 1/3 innings, averaging more than six innings per outing over his 25 appearances. Cueto only struck out 15.7% of batters faced, but he demonstrated elite control and kept the White Sox in the game more often than not. Between his age, lack of missed bats and a fastball that averaged just over 91 MPH, he won’t land a huge deal, but he’s certainly pitched himself into a guaranteed rotation spot on a higher base salary than the prorated $4MM he made in Chicago this past season.

A likely future Hall of Famer, Greinke is now a reliable back-of-the-rotation option. His fastball is below 90 MPH and he struck out a career-worst 12.5% of opposing hitters during his return to the Royals this year. It certainly wasn’t a vintage Greinke performance, but he walked fewer than 5% of opponents and posted a strong 3.68 ERA. Even at 39 years old, the six-time All-Star will receive major league offers and a rotation spot next year.

Kluber missed a good chunk of the 2021 season with the Yankees, leading to an $8MM guarantee with $5MM available in incentives on last winter’s deal with the Rays. The two-time Cy Young winner stayed healthy all year and made 31 starts, triggering all his incentives by soaking up 164 innings. He posted a 4.34 ERA but walked a minuscule 3% of batters faced. Kluber’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH, but he still generated swinging strikes on more than 11% of his offerings and was adept at getting opponents to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He has a good chance at beating last offseason’s $8MM guarantee as a result.

Depth Types

  • Chris Archer (34): After a few seasons affected by injury, Archer managed 25 starts this year with the Twins. He worked to a 4.56 ERA through 102 2/3 innings with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. His days as an upper mid-rotation arm are behind him, but he could find another big league contract as a back-of-the-rotation type.
  • Zach Davies (30): Davies started 27 games for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.09 ERA. He doesn’t miss many bats but he’s typically been a durable source of back-of-the-rotation innings.
  • Kyle Gibson (35): A 2021 trade deadline pickup after a strong start with the Rangers, Gibson has underperformed in Philadelphia. He has a 5.06 ERA in 43 starts as a Phillie. His peripherals are more solid: a quality ground-ball rate and solid strike-throwing paired with slightly below-average swing-and-miss numbers. Gibson’s a capable fourth/fifth starter.
  • Rich Hill (43): Even headed into his age-43 season, Hill plans to continue pitching. He signed with his hometown Red Sox last winter and provided a 4.27 ERA across 124 1/3 innings. His swing-and-miss rate and velocity are below-average, but he’s a respected veteran who throws strikes and has generally kept runs off the board since his late-career renaissance.
  • Wade Miley (36): Miley was one of the more effective starters in the National League a season ago, pitching to a 3.37 ERA over 163 innings in 2021. Claimed off waivers by the Cubs last winter, he battled injuries throughout the season and was limited to 37 innings.
  • Trevor Williams (31): Williams pitched in a swing role with the Mets, starting nine of 30 outings. The veteran right-hander had a 4.19 ERA as a starter but posted a much more impressive 2.51 mark in 51 innings of relief.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • Chase Anderson (35): Anderson spent the bulk of the season working in Triple-A, but he picked up nine late-season appearances with the Reds. He posted a 6.38 ERA through 24 innings.
  • Kohei Arihara (30): A mid-rotation starter in Japan, Arihara signed a two-year deal with the Rangers over the 2020-21 offseason. He managed only a 7.57 ERA in 15 appearances over two years in Arlington. Arihara will be looking at minor league offers from affiliated teams, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he explores NPB opportunities.
  • Tyler Beede (30): A former first-rounder and well-regarded pitching prospect, Beede mostly worked out of the bullpen with the Giants and Pirates this year. He did pick up five starts in 31 outings and posted an overall 5.14 ERA before clearing waivers late in the season.
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (31): Gonzalez suited up with three different teams in 2022, bouncing around on waivers and via minor league deals. He made five starts in seven appearances and posted a 5.87 ERA across 23 frames.
  • Drew Hutchison (32): The Tigers turned to Hutchison for his greatest workload since 2015. He soaked up 105 1/3 innings in a swing role, managing a 4.53 ERA.
  • Dallas Keuchel (35): The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has fallen on hard times in recent years. He bounced between three clubs this past season but was tagged for a 9.20 ERA through 60 2/3 frames.
  • Chad Kuhl (30): Signed to a $3MM guarantee by the Rockies last winter, Kuhl got off to a strong start in Colorado. He was hit hard in the second half and finished the year with a career-worst 5.72 ERA across 137 innings.
  • Mike Mayers (31): A productive reliever for the Angels from 2020-21, Mayers had a rough season. He posted a 5.68 ERA over 50 2/3 innings and was waived twice during the year. He did make a trio of big league starts, topping out at 5 1/3 innings in an outing, but he figures to draw more bullpen interest as a minor league free agent.
  • Michael Pineda (34): Typically a solid back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Pineda had an injury-plagued 2022 season with the Tigers. He was limited to 11 starts by a hand fracture and some triceps soreness. The non-competitive Detroit club released him before the end of the season to get a longer look at some of their controllable arms.
  • Josh Rogers (28): Rogers had an impressive five-start run late in 2021 to earn a season-opening roster spot in Washington. He couldn’t carry it over in 2022, posting a 5.13 ERA through 26 1/3 frames as a swingman before being cut loose. He spent the rest of the year in Triple-A with the Marlins.
  • Joe Ross (30): Ross has flashed mid-rotation potential at times in his career, but he hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2016. He underwent Tommy John surgery this summer and might be looking at minor league offers while he rehabs. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, but a late-season return in 2023 doesn’t seem out of the question.
  • Aaron Sanchez (30): The former AL ERA champ has settled into journeyman territory at this stage of his career. He started 10 of 15 games for the Nationals and Twins this year, putting up a 6.60 ERA across 60 innings of work.
  • Anibal Sanchez (39): Sanchez returned after a year away to start 14 games for the Nationals. The veteran righty posted a respectable 4.28 ERA but struggled with walks and home runs.
  • Devin Smeltzer (27): Smeltzer picked up 12 starts in 15 appearances for the Twins in a depth capacity. He worked to a 3.71 ERA but only struck out 13.2% of opponents while working with a fastball that averaged just north of 89 MPH. He went unclaimed on waivers at the end of the season.
  • Jose Urena (31): Urena latched on with the Rockies midseason and made 17 starts. The former Marlin right-hander posted a 5.14 ERA across 89 1/3 innings, although he did show his typically strong velocity and ground-ball proclivities.
  • Vince Velasquez (31): Velasquez has continued to get opportunities based on his mid-90s velocity and decent ability to miss bats. Home runs have been a constant issue, however, and he’s battled plenty of command inconsistency. He worked in a swing role with the White Sox this year and put up a 4.78 ERA across 75 1/3 innings.
  • T.J. Zeuch (27): A former first-round pick of the Blue Jays, Zeuch has seen brief MLB action in four seasons. He was hit hard in three starts with the Reds in 2022.

Players With Opt-Outs/Player Options

  • Nick Martinez (32), can opt of final three years and $19.5MM on contract with Padres, $1.5MM buyout

Martinez has worked in a swing role during his first season with the Padres. After starting 10 of his first 12 outings, he moved full-time to the bullpen in June. He didn’t miss many bats in either role but he showed much stronger control as a reliever and posted a 2.67 ERA over 54 innings out of the bullpen. He’d reportedly prefer another chance as a starter, which could lean him towards triggering his opt-out. Martinez has yet to establish himself in an MLB rotation, but he was excellent over three years in the rotation in NPB and showed the ability to handle MLB bats in relief this year.

The hefty buyout figure on Odorizzi’s option means he’d only need to top $6.25MM in free agency to make testing the market a reasonable decision. Even still, he may elect to stick with the Braves after a rough second half. Acquired at the trade deadline, the veteran right-hander posted a 5.24 ERA over 10 starts in Atlanta. He was more effective in Houston but no longer misses bats as he did a few seasons ago.

  • James Paxton (34), will hold $4MM player option once Red Sox decline two-year, $26MM club option

Paxton signed a complex deal with Boston to finish off his rehab after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He didn’t wind up pitching in 2022, as he suffered a lat tear while rehabbing. There’s no way the Red Sox guarantee him $26MM, so Paxton will be left to decide whether to return to Boston on a $4MM salary or set out to free agency in search of an incentive-laden deal with a bit more earning power.

The durability issues that plagued Walker in his mid-20s have largely been put in the past. He’s made 69 starts and pitched 369 2/3 frames over the past three seasons, recording a 3.80 ERA along the way. This year’s 20.3% strikeout rate is a career-low, but his 6.9% walk rate is Walker’s best since 2016. The right-hander doesn’t do any one thing especially well but also doesn’t have a glaring weakness. Walker is a slam-dunk to turn down this modestly priced option and find a multi-year deal in free agency, assuming the Mets don’t make him a qualifying offer.

Players With Club Options

  • Dylan Bundy (30), Twins hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

Bundy signed a one-year guarantee with Minnesota last offseason. The Twins’ hopes at a bounceback season didn’t pan out, as he averaged under 90 MPH on his fastball for the first time in his career and put up a 4.89 ERA over 140 innings. He’ll be bought out.

Carrasco went from the Indians to the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster over the 2020-21 offseason. His first year in Queens was tarnished by injury, but he returned to make 29 starts this past season. Over 152 innings, Carrasco posted a 3.97 ERA with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers. It looks like he’s done enough to earn the Mets picking up his option, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Carrasco’s injury history could give the team pause.

Duffy signed with the Dodgers last offseason while rehabbing from a flexor strain that required surgery. He had a setback this summer and didn’t throw a big league pitch in 2022. He’ll be bought out and might be limited to minor league offers this time around.

Gray’s option is a no-brainer for the Twins. He battled some injuries during his first season in Minnesota but put up a 3.08 ERA in 119 2/3 innings when healthy. He’ll be back in the middle of the Twins starting staff next year.

  • Jordan Lyles (32), Orioles hold $11MM option with $1MM buyout

The O’s are faced with a tough decision on Lyles, whom they signed to a one-year guarantee last winter. The veteran righty ate innings as the club had hoped and put up a 4.42 ERA that was his lowest mark in three seasons. Even that was still a fair bit worse than average, however, as were his strikeout and ground-ball numbers. He’s a stable back-end starter who reportedly served as a strong veteran leader in the O’s clubhouse.

  • Aaron Nola (30), Phillies hold $16MM option with $4.25MM buyout

There’s no chance Nola hits free agency. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and the Phillies won’t have any easier decisions this offseason than to exercise his option.

  • Luis Severino (29), Yankees hold $15MM club option with $2.75MM buyout

The Yankees are sure to retain Severino, who came back from a trio of injury-diminished seasons to post a 3.18 ERA over 102 innings. He again missed a couple months with a lat strain, but the right-hander showed his old velocity and upper mid-rotation form when healthy.

Previous installments:Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Corner outfields, Center Field, Designated Hitter

MLB Cancels 2022 Korea Series

By | at

Major League Baseball is canceling the 2022 Korea Series that had been scheduled for next month, reports Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (Twitter link). The league cited a contractual issue with a local promoter as the reason for the cancelation, Yoo notes.

In late August, MLB and the Players Association announced the creation of the Korea Series. The event would’ve pitted some major league players against players from the Korea Baseball Organization in a four-game exhibition, with two contests scheduled apiece in Busan and Seoul. Earlier this week, Michael Clair of MLB.com listed a number of players who’d been set to participate — including Randy Arozarena, Steven Kwan, Salvador Perez, former KBO slugger Darin Ruf and South Korea natives Ha-Seong Kim, Ji-Man Choi and Hoy Park.

MLB noted at the time of its announcement that it would be the first time players from MLB traveled to play games in Korea since 1922. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and KBO commissioner Koo-youn Heo have also previously discussed the possibility of playing some KBO games in the United States and MLB games in South Korea down the line.

There’s no indication the cancelation of the upcoming event has any bearing on longer-term plans, although it’ll still come as a notable disappointment to a number of fans inside South Korea. The event was set to kick off in just over two weeks time, with the first game scheduled for November 11.

The Korea Series had been part of a broader “World Tour” arrangement. Established as part of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, the program is set to play as many 24 regular season contests and 16 exhibition games throughout Latin America, Asia and Europe between 2022-26.

Mariners Outright Derek Hill

By | at

Outfielder Derek Hill has gone unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Mariners earlier in the week, the team announced. He has been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, but he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the start of the offseason as a player who has spent more than seven years in the minors.

Hill, 27 in December, was a first-round pick of the Tigers in 2014. An excellent runner and gifted center fielder, he played his way up the minor league ladder but never found the offensive consistency Detroit had hoped. He’s reached double digits in home runs just once in his minor league career, and he’s increasingly struggled to make contact against higher-level pitching. Through parts of eight minor league seasons, he owns a .246/.315/.362 line with an elevated 25.7% strikeout rate.

Despite the offensive inconsistency, Hill played his way to the majors by 2020 on the strength of his glove and baserunning. He spent parts of three seasons in Detroit, compiling a .240/.291/.339 line over 254 plate appearances in intermittent playing time. He swiped nine bases and played over 600 innings in center field over that stretch. The Tigers designated him for assignment in early August, and Seattle nabbed him off waivers.

Hill has spent the past few months in the Mariners organization, but he didn’t make an appearance in Seattle. He instead spent the stretch run on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma, putting up a .236/.320/.462 showing with five homers in 34 games. Once he officially hits free agency, he figures to entertain some minor league offers with invitations to big league Spring Training.

Matt Harvey Undergoes Knee Surgery, Hopes To Pitch In 2023

By | at

Right-hander Matt Harvey underwent knee surgery last month, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear whether the procedure is expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training, but Boras tells Sherman that Harvey plans to attempt to make it back to the majors next year.

The 2022 campaign was the first since 2014 in which Harvey didn’t pitch in the majors. He missed the ’14 campaign rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but had otherwise been a fairly frequent presence in the big leagues since his 2012 debut. After a few ace-level performances through 2015, he’s consistently struggled. Harvey has settled into journeyman territory, pitching for five different teams and posting a combined 6.00 ERA in 354 innings since the start of the 2018 season.

Over the offseason, Harvey testified to providing former teammate Tyler Skaggs with Percocet in the trial against former Angels communications director Eric Kay. Kay was convicted of providing Skaggs with the drugs that led to his death, while Harvey was granted immunity from criminal prosecution for his testimony. That raised the possibility of an MLB-levied suspension for drug distribution. The Orioles re-signed him to a minor league contract in April, and Harvey was suspended for 60 games in mid-May.

After serving that ban, Harvey reported to Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk. He started 10 games for the Tides, putting up a 4.31 ERA through 54 1/3 innings. That decent run prevention was in spite of a modest 18.5% strikeout rate and an untenable 2.32 home runs allowed per nine innings. Harvey didn’t pitch after September 8, presumably on account of the knee issue, and didn’t appear in the majors.

The 33-year-old (34 in March) will hit the open market again this offseason. It remains to be seen whether he’ll land another minor league contract with a big league club.

A’s, Tyler Wade Agree To Minor League Deal

By | at

The Athletics have signed utilityman Tyler Wade to a minor league contract, reports Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. He’d elected minor league free agency earlier this month after playing the second half of the season on a non-roster deal with the Yankees.

Wade has appeared in the big leagues in each of the last six years. A Yankees fourth-round pick in 2013, he blossomed into one of the system’s more interesting prospects on the strength of plus speed and solid contact skills. Wade never cemented himself as a regular, however, consistently working as a depth player who bounced between multiple positions off the bench. He never tallied more than 145 plate appearances in an individual season in New York as the Yankees frequently bounced him on and off the active roster.

Last offseason, New York designated Wade for assignment as part of a 40-man overhaul to set their roster before the Rule 5 draft. The Angels acquired him a few days later. Because he’s out of minor league option years, the Halos had to carry him on their active roster to keep him in the organization. He spent the first three months of the 2022 campaign in Anaheim, picking up a personal-high 163 plate appearances over 67 contests. Wade didn’t hit well, though, connecting on just one home run while posting a .218/.272/.272 overall line. Anaheim designated him for assignment in July, and he returned to the Yankees on a minor league deal after going unclaimed on waivers.

The 27-year-old (28 next month) spent the rest of the year at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Wade put up a .227/.353/.369 line with four homers through 170 plate appearances with the RailRiders. He walked in an excellent 15.9% of his trips against a manageable 20.6% strikeout rate, but his results on batted balls weren’t great. He didn’t get a new big league look in the Bronx.

Wade will presumably get an opportunity to compete for a big league job in Spring Training. The rebuilding A’s have very little in the way of position player certainty. Tony Kemp is the in-house favorite for playing time at second base, although he could be traded or non-tendered this offseason. Nick Allen is the top shortstop option but began his MLB career with a .207/.256/.291 line through 326 plate appearances. Wade’s also capable of factoring into the outfield mix if he can carve out another bench job.

Big Hype Prospects: Merrill, Marte, Davis, Yorke, Winn

By | at

Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. A general note before we dive in – I’m relaxing the definition of “big” so we can continue to cover different active players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Merrill, 19, SS, SDP (A)
AFL: 73 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .308/.356/.431

Merrill was the 27th overall selection in the 2021 draft. One of the youngest players in the AFL, he’s held his own in Arizona after a promising regular season split between the complex and Low-A. He’s now arguably the top prospect in a Padres system that traded the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and James Wood.

Merrill has the look of a throwback shortstop. He’s smaller than many of the current crop of shortstops and has a swing geared more for all-field contact than generating power. He appears to be a high-probability future big leaguer. It’s possible he’ll top out as a utility guy if certain aspects of his game – such as first-step quickness in the field – don’t age well. His defensive aplomb will go a long way toward determining his future role.

Noelvi Marte, 21, SS, CIN (A+)
AFL: 58 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .208/.345/.333

Marte hasn’t been particularly effective this fall – possibly a sign that he’s out of gas after a 520 plate appearance regular season split between Seattle and Cincinnati’s High-A affiliates. Marte has also been prone to streaks this year so he still has plenty of time to turn things around with a couple big games. Encouragingly, he’s recorded more walks than strikeouts. He recently hit a titanic 461-foot home run, showcasing his premium power upside.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
AFL: 53 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .256/.415/.462

One of two exciting, near-Majors catching prospects in the Pirates system, Davis managed just 236 plate appearances during the regular season due to injuries. He’s mostly in Arizona to work on his defense. If he doesn’t improve in all defensive facets, he could eventually move to first base where his bat should still play – just a lot less excitingly. He’s shown more than his characteristic plate discipline this fall. While one home run seems disappointing for a player with premium raw power, he’s also hit five doubles.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, BOS (A+)
AFL: 76 PA, 1 HR, .328/.434/.492

Yorke was one of a few players with more to prove than most in the AFL. He’s mostly succeeded. Yorke currently leads the league in plate appearances and doubles (7). He also has 15.8 percent strikeout and walk rates. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope Yorke can fit in as a future leadoff hitter, and he’s filled that role ably this fall. Lately, it’s been shared that Yorke played through nagging injuries which might have led to his poor performance at High-A. Occasionally, the “nagging injury” card is played to distract from the real reasons for a lousy season. A healthy 2023 campaign could do much to restore confidence in Yorke’s future role in Boston.

Masyn Winn, 20, SS, STL (AA)
AFL: 52 PA, 1 HR, 6 SB, .300/.462/.375

Winn is an up-and-coming prospect. At present, the tools are more obvious than the actual statistical outcome. He’s a plus runner who has the capacity to hit for power. Scouts have noted that his game approach doesn’t always tap into those tools – as if he’s selling out for contact at the expense of power. Given that he’s a Cardinals prospect – a system that has long valued discipline and contact – this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Should Winn access more in-game power next season, he could climb onto Top 10 prospect lists. In the AFL, he has just one extra-base hit, though he’s otherwise performed well including 12 walks to just eight strikeouts.

Five More

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Simon currently leads the AFL with 18 RBI. He’s the sort of player the Rays system tends to produce in bulk. He can play second or third base. During the regular season, he hit 22 home runs with 34 steals over 473 plate appearances. He spent the bulk of the season at High-A. Rule 5 eligible, Simon might not be doing enough to claim a 40-man spot with the roster-crunched Rays. If so, we could see him in the Majors next April as a Rule 5 draftee.

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The Cardinals will have a difficult choice with Thomas. He is also Rule 5 eligible. A ground ball machine who worked to a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings this season, Thomas should find himself on a 40-man roster before long. While he didn’t succeed at preventing runs during the regular season, the 5’ 11’’ southpaw features plus command of a four-pitch repertoire. He’s arguably the top-performing pitcher in Arizona, posting a 1.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and four walks in 17.2 innings. His slider in particular looks like it could play up in a relief role.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert is the AFL’s top-performing reliever. He has 15 strikeouts with just one walk and no hits allowed in 7.2 innings. Acquired in the Mike Brosseau trade with the Brewers, Reifert has an upper-90s fastball and a two-plane, borderline elite slider. The right-hander has historically struggled with command, though he’s mostly avoided walks this year. He’s on pace to debut next season.

Zach Daniels, HOU (23): Daniels recently hit the longest home run of the 2022 AFL season – a 481-foot moonball to center field. It was his first home run in an otherwise poor showing in Arizona. He’s addressed his biggest demon – a sky-high strikeout rate – by punching out just five times in 26 plate appearances. However, he’s batting only .130/.231/.304. Power hitters of this profile tend to be volatile.

Zach Britton, TOR (23): Yet another catching prospect in the catcher-rich Blue Jays system, Britton is a highly disciplined left-handed hitter roughly in the mold of Cavan Biggio. Britton isn’t nearly as maxed out on fly ball contact which should help him to hit more consistently than Biggio. Britton should receive more attention from prospect outlets next season as he approaches a Major League debut. He’s currently second in the AFL in OPS with a .457/.524/.686 (1.210 OPS) triple-slash in 40 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By | at

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine have been in place for six years now. The team has a winning record under their leadership, but the last two seasons have ended in disappointment, with the Twins missing the postseason by a wide margin despite heading into the year as projected contenders. They’ll enter the offseason with a large amount of payroll space, though that’s due partly to last winter’s marquee signing opting out of his contract.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Byron Buxton, OF: $90MM through 2028 ($15MM base salary can increase to $23MM annually based on MVP voting)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $9.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2024)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B: $8.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2024; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2025)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $7.75MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026; contract also contains $7MM club option for 2026, $8.5MM club option for 2027)*
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $3.125MM through 2023 (can earn up to $10MM of incentives based on games started, innings pitched)

*=Dobnak is in the organization but no longer on the 40-man roster

Total 2023 commitment: $35.625MM
Total long-term outlay: $118.875MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Twins’ first order of business will be determining whether they have a legitimate chance to retain Carlos Correa, who’s already said he’ll opt out of the remaining two years and $70.2MM on his contract. The only long-term commitment of note on the books is Byron Buxton’s $15MM annual salary through the 2028 season, leaving plenty of room for the Twins to put forth a market-value offer with what would be the first $30MM+ annual salary in club history.

The question, of course, is whether the front office feels it’s wise to do so and whether owner Jim Pohlad will green-light that franchise-record expenditure. For his part, Correa has effused praise for the Twins since day one. He’s since said on record multiple times that his family enjoys living there and that he personally “loves” manager Rocco Baldelli and the clubhouse environment.

Pleasantries are all well and good this time of year, but Correa has also made clear that he’s seeking a long-term deal and will again become a free agent if the two parties cannot agree to an extension. Falvey has said on record that the Twins have talked contract with agent Scott Boras since the season ended, also expressing a willingness to “get creative” on a deal. Cynics would suggest that’s corporate-speak implying the Twins aren’t prepared to offer a straightforward long-term pact, but it was a somewhat “creative” offer that brought Correa to Minneapolis in the first place. He still seems likely to test the market, but the Twins have another couple weeks to convince him to stay.

If Correa indeed opts out and signs elsewhere, the Twins will be left with a hole at shortstop but also a heaping amount of payroll space. All four of their club option decisions are easy to decipher. Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer will be bought out, and all are likely to sign elsewhere. Sonny Gray’s $12.5MM club option is a no-brainer to exercise. In a scenario where Correa departs and Gray is picked up, the Twins will have around $50MM committed to next year’s books.

There are arbitration-eligible players to consider, but that’ll only add another $30MM or so to the ledger. The Twins opened the 2022 season with a payroll in the neighborhood of $142MM, but even with Gray returning and only a handful of non-tenders, they’ll clock in around $80-82MM in commitments. Even if 2022’s Opening Day mark is set as a firm ceiling — which it likely is not — the front office has a lot of financial freedom this winter.

Where can the Twins reallocate those resources? Frankly, just about anywhere. The lineup has few guarantees, though that’s generally due to flexibility afforded by key young players.

Luis Arraez spent a large chunk of time at first base this season and won a batting title in the process, but he can play second base, third base and even some left field if needed. Rookie Jose Miranda also spent time at first base, but he rose through the system as a third baseman and could man the hot corner if the Twins prefer to trade Gio Urshela and go with Miranda/Arraez at the corners. Doing so could bring back some bullpen help or a decent minor league asset and free up another $9MM or so.

If Correa doesn’t return, the Twins can turn shortstop over to former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, though he’s rehabbing a second tear of his right ACL and thus shouldn’t be considered a lock to handle shortstop from the jump (if at all). Lewis is another candidate to play multiple positions at some point and could do so as soon as next year, depending on which course the Twins chart.

If Minnesota isn’t willing to pay top-of-the-market money for the marquee shortstop they already know and love, Correa, it stands to reason that fellow free agent Trea Turner will be out of their comfort zone. But both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson will be free agents this winter, and while both figure to command nine-figure contracts, they’ll likely be less expensive than Turner and Correa. Barring another splash in the deep end of the free-agent pool, the Twins could look to a shorter-term veteran like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias to help ease Lewis into a larger role.

There’s similar flexibility and uncertainty in the outfield. Byron Buxton remains one of the most talented players in MLB on a per-game basis but also one of the most oft-injured. He hit 28 homers in just 92 games but missed time with a hip strain before undergoing season-ending knee surgery in September. Max Kepler has been a stalwart in right field, and his pull-happy approach could make him a beneficiary of the forthcoming limitations on infield shifts. However, Kepler has never replicated the fly-ball rates (and subsequent power output) he showed in the juiced-ball 2019 season that saw him club 36 home runs. With just one guaranteed year to go on his contract (plus an option), he could be a trade candidate as the Twins look to open space for younger players.

Among those younger options are snakebitten corner outfielders Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Both are former first-rounders and consensus top-50 prospects in the league, but both have seen their early careers waylaid by injury. Kirilloff, who’s twice undergone wrist surgery, was particularly touted. That duo can play the corners, and Kirilloff has plenty of experience at first base as well, further adding to the aforementioned infield flexibility. Twin Cities native and former No. 39 overall draft pick Matt Wallner is another right field option who made his big league debut in 2022 and could factor into next year’s group.

If the Twins do trade Kepler, there’s an argument that they ought to bring in a different veteran to stabilize/complement the in-house group — ideally a right-handed hitter. The most wide-eyed dreamers among Twins fans can point to the payroll space and last March’s stunning Correa deal as justification for an “anything is possible” mentality, but Aaron Judge is scarcely worth a mention here. Still, a short-term veteran could at least be in play as an occasional left fielder and designated hitter, depending on what happens with Kepler.

Behind the plate, the Twins remain high on Ryan Jeffers’ receiving and his power, but Falvey has specifically talked about bringing in another backstop to again utilize a “co-catcher” method that divides playing time more evenly than the traditional starter/backup pairing. As Falvey plainly noted, Jeffers was particularly adept against left-handed pitching.

The Twins haven’t labeled the still-25-year-old Jeffers a pure platoon option, but they’ll want someone who can help out against right-handed pitching. This year’s free-agent class isn’t a great one in that regard, though Omar Narvaez has a nice track record against righties despite a down showing in 2022. Willson Contreras, the market’s top catcher, would bolster the offense against righties and lefties alike, and the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to make them a dark-horse landing spot. The trade market will have options ranging from clear starters (Oakland’s Sean Murphy, Toronto’s Danny Jansen) to out-of-options fliers (the Angels’ Matt Thaiss).

The depth on the pitching staff is more suspect. Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. Some of that was by design, at least early on. For instance, Minnesota inked Chris Archer to an incentive-laden deal that allowed him to boost his salary based on games started and outings of three or more innings in length. The plan was to ease him into the year with short outings and build him up, but Archer never built up to the workload the team envisioned. Rotation-mate and fellow offseason signee Dylan Bundy had averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start from 2019-21 and averaged under five innings per start with the Twins in ’22. He likely was never viewed as a potential workhorse.

That approach placed undue stress on a bullpen that, beyond breakout arms Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, had few alternatives for much of the season. The Twins swung what looked like one of the better deals of the deadline, bringing in All-Star reliever Jorge Lopez from the Orioles, but Lopez struggled greatly with his command following the swap and wasn’t able to replicate his Baltimore form.

We don’t need a full breakdown of what went wrong for the Twins’ staff for the purposes of outlining the forthcoming offseason. The end-of-season results — 20th in rotation ERA/27th in innings; 15th in bullpen ERA/third in innings — are telling. For the Twins to remedy things in 2022, they’ll need more innings and more quality from the rotation and/or a deeper and more talented bullpen to help offset the lack of innings from the starting staff.

Returning to the 2022 rotation will be the aforementioned Gray and right-hander Joe Ryan, who dubiously led Twins pitchers with 147 innings. Both were strong mid-rotation arms, though Gray was hampered by hamstring injuries that limited him to 119 2/3 innings. Kenta Maeda will also be healed from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota will hope for better health from deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle, for whom they surrendered three prospects in a deal with the Reds.

Mahle, like Gray, was an above-average starter with the Reds prior to his acquisition and was particularly effective away from the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He hit the injured list with a “minor” shoulder strain in July, returned to make two solid outings prior to the deadline, and landed in Minnesota as a hopeful rotation boost down the stretch. Instead, he twice went back on the injured list with shoulder troubles and made only four total starts as a Twin. Falvey has said since the season ended that Mahle “has been evaluated beyond the traditional MRI” and that the team believes the strain led to some weakness in Mahle’s rotator cuff. The expectation is that he’ll be healthy in 2023.

A healthy quartet of Ryan, Gray, Mahle and Maeda would be a solid start to any staff, and the Twins have some in-house options to join them. Righties Bailey Ober, Josh Winder and Simeon Woods Richardson have all pitched in the Majors — Ober extensively so, dating back to a quietly solid rookie effort in 2021. Winder missed time in 2022 due to shoulder troubles but was a top-100 prospect prior to this year’s debut and at times looked quite impressive. Woods Richardson had a promising year in the upper minors and made his MLB debut in the season’s final week. Top prospect Jordan Balazovic had a lost season, spending a month on the shelf with a knee strain and struggling for the majority of the Triple-A campaign thereafter.

Twins fans will call for the team to pursue a front-line starter, but the reality is that consecutive poor finishes makes that a far more difficult task. Veterans Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom will likely prioritize signing with more clearly defined contenders. Lefty Carlos Rodon would be a more feasible target if the Twins are willing to dole out their first nine-figure pitching contract in franchise history, but he should clear the Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) contracts — perhaps by a wide margin.

Right-hander Kodai Senga, ace of Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, will pursue MLB opportunities this offseason, too, but the competition for him will be fierce. The market does feature a number of solid second-tier options, with Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard and Tyler Anderson among them.

In the bullpen, the Twins will hope Duran, Lopez and Jax can pair with lefties Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran to anchor the late innings. Hard-throwing righty Jorge Alcala missed nearly the whole season with an elbow issue but is expected back in ’23. It’s a talented group that looks far better than the unit they had early in 2022, but after generally eschewing veteran additions a year ago (save for a one-year flier on Joe Smith, who was released over the summer), the Twins should place more of an emphasis on adding stability. Minnesota’s lack of depth was exposed in 2022 when Tyler Duffey declined and trade pickup Emilio Pagan regularly proved unreliable, despite persistent opportunities (due largely to said lack of depth). The latter now seems likely to be traded or non-tendered following a disastrous year.

The only multi-year free agent deal the current front office has given to a reliever is Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal, and that was six years ago. In fact, as far as I can tell, that’s the only multi-year deal given to a free-agent reliever by the Twins since the turn of the century (though they’ve extended in-house star closers like Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins).

In other words, don’t expect this team to break the bank for Edwin Diaz. If the Twins want to break that multi-year trend, the top names with a chance at three- and two-year deals include Robert Suarez, Kenley Jansen and (more quietly) Rafael Montero. More realistically, the Twins will bide their time and wait out the market for relievers open to one-year deals. That strategy has backfired recently (Smith, Alex Colome) but paid off at times in the past (Tyler Clippard).

Few teams in baseball have as much money coming off the books as the Twins this winter, and they could further add to that stockpile of resources by trading a veteran they feel they can replace internally (e.g. Kepler, Urshela). That should give the Twins the financial latitude to pursue just about any endeavor they choose, and at least as far as the lineup goes, they’re deep in young options.

This version of the Minnesota front office has typically eschewed long-term commitments in free agency, with Josh Donaldson’s four-year deal marking the only time they’ve signed a free agent for more than three years. Given the clean payroll outlook, a strong free-agent class and mounting pressure to return to contention in the AL Central, it’s arguable that this offseason is the time to deviate from that risk-averse approach.

Quick Hits: Twins, Rays, Minor League CBA

By | at

The Twins announced that they have hired Nick Paparesta to be the club’s head athletic trainer. Paparesta has spent the previous 12 years in the same role for the Athletics. Prior to that, he spent five years with the Rays and 11 years with Cleveland.

A new head athletic trainer usually wouldn’t be especially noteworthy, but there are a couple of reasons to think this could be an impactful move for Minnesota. Reporting on the vacancy last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune pointed out that there’s been a large amount of turnover in the club’s strength and conditioning departments, including having three different head trainers since 2016.

Also, the Twins were leading the AL Central for much of 2022 before a rash of injuries dragged them down to a 78-84 finish. While the training staff can’t be reasonably blamed for every health issue that pops up, any improvement in that department could have big ramifications for the club. If Paparesta can provide some stability to the department, it could help the Twins on the field, especially with a roster that features some players with injury concerns, such as Byron Buxton, Tyler Mahle, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and others.

Some other notes from around the league…

  • The Tigers recently hired Rob Metzler to be their assistant general manager, plucking him from the Rays organization. Since Metzler had been working as senior director of amateur scouting for Tampa, that left them with a vacancy in their scouting department. The Rays turned inward to replace Metzler, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times reports that they promoted Chuck Ricci to director of amateur scouting. Ricci has spent the past nine seasons as national crosschecker for the Rays and has evidently impressed the organization enough to get a bump up the ladder. Additionally, David Hamlett was promoted to assistant director of amateur scouting. The Rays have earned a reputation for finding talented young players from various areas, something that is essential for their success as a franchise that typically doesn’t spend at high levels. Though the departure of Metzler will surely create challenges for them, the club will be hoping that Ricci and Hamlett can step up and fill the void.
  • In recent months, the Major League Baseball Players Association sought to represent minor league players in negotiations with the league, an effort that ultimately proved successful. The arrangement became official in mid-September, with an arbiter validating the organization efforts of the union and the league agreeing to recognize the MLBPA as the bargaining representatives for minor leaguers. It was reported around that time that minor leaguers would be negotiating a separate agreement to the one that affects major leaguers, and Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports that those talks have now begun. As the recent MLB CBA negotiations showed, these situations can drag on for months, so it’s unclear how long this agreement will take. It might also prove to be even more challenging since these are uncharted waters, with minor leaguers having never been unionized before. More details will surely emerge as the negotiations play out, but many minor league players have been vocal about dissatisfaction with various elements of their work environments, including housing and payment, among others.

Cubs Promote Dustin Kelly To Hitting Coach

By | at

The Cubs are making a change at hitting coach, as Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Greg Brown will not be returning to that role next year, though he was offered a different role within the organization. Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune adds that minor league hitting coordinator Dustin Kelly has been promoted to take Brown’s place and that Brown will leave the Cubs to pursue other opportunities.

The job has been remarkably volatile in recent years, with Mooney pointing out that the Cubs have employed 14 different hitting coaches since 2012. The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years and have many young and developing hitters on the roster, meaning that they will be looking to help those youngsters maximize their potential while also providing some much-needed stability and continuity as they aim to be more competitive in the years to come.

Kelly has been in the organization for almost two years now and had spent the previous three years working with the minor leaguers of the Dodgers. In the past couple of seasons, Kelly has surely developed relationships with the young players that have been moving through the system. Whether those players are already in the majors or still working their way there, the Cubs are evidently impressed with the work he’s done and have quickly bumped him up to the show without any signs of having conducted a search of external candidates.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top