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Minor League Notes: Space Cowboys, Hsin-Chieh Lin

By TC Zencka | January 29, 2022 at 5:31pm CDT

Let’s check in on the latest from the minor league landscape…

The Sugar Land Skeeters have completed their rebrand. The Astros’ Triple-A affiliate is now the Sugar Land Space Cowboys, with brand new duds and a new logo to boot. The Skeeters had played in the independent league from 2012 until 2019, with last season being their first season as an affiliated ballclub. In terms of the re-brand, the Space Cowboys struck a chord alluding to both their Texas roots and Houston’s NASA connection. “We really wanted an identity that reflected a connection to the Astros but stood out as unique and was aligned with the values of Sugar Land: vibrant, thriving, aggressive and a very family-oriented community that’s clearly focused on investing in the future,” said Anita Sehgal, SVP, marketing and communications at the Astros, per MLB.com’s Tyler Maun.
Phillies prospect Hsin-Chieh Lin plans to enter the 2022 draft for the Chinese Professional Baseball League, per the CPBL Stats Twitter account. Lin has pitched in the Phillies farm system since 2018. The right-hander pitched most of 2021 with Single-A Clearwater, tossing 20 innings with a 7.20ERA over four starts and four relief appearances. Lin was not considered to be a top prospect, and given that he is a native of Taiwan, it’s easy to understand a desire to make a run at the CPBL.

Mets Not Done Upgrading Rotation

By TC Zencka | January 29, 2022 at 4:15pm CDT

When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.

Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.

For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.

The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.

Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.

Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37, Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.

Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.

The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.

Padres Discussed Chris Paddack As Part Of Trade Deadline Talks With Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2022 at 3:11pm CDT

Before the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline, the Padres were known to also be in the hunt for both players, with San Diego reportedly coming particularly close to landing Scherzer before the Nats pivoted towards the Dodgers’ offer. Top catching prospect Luis Campusano was discussed as part of the Padres’ negotiations with Washington, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres also “dangled” Chris Paddack as part of the Scherzer talks.

Paddack (who just turned 26 earlier this month) tossed 108 1/3 innings last season, as he was limited by three separate trips to the injured list due to COVID-19, an oblique strain, and then a slight UCL sprain that ended his season in mid-September. The timing of that oblique strain could’ve played a role in Paddack’s deadline fate, as he pitched on July 27 but was then placed on the IL on July 31, the day after the deadline — the Padres might have taken Paddack off the table in trade talks knowing that he was about to be sidelined with an injury.

After posting a solid 3.74 ERA over 174 innings in 2019-20, Paddack took a step backwards in 2021, and it’s fair to guess that his injuries likely played some role in his lesser numbers. Plus, Paddack’s 5.07 ERA was surely impacted by a very low 60.7% strand rate, and his 4.05 SIERA paints a more favorable impression of last season’s performance.

That said, Paddack’s Statcast metrics were decidedly subpar aside from his excellent walk rate, and his hard-contact and strikeout rates were also both troublesome in 2020. Between these numbers and his injuries, it still isn’t quite clear after parts of three MLB seasons if Paddack can be a solid contributor to a rotation, or if he might ultimately be a fringe fifth starter or depth arm.

For this reason, San Diego could opt to keep Paddack until they know exactly what they have in a hard-throwing, controllable (through 2024) starting pitcher. While Paddack might have been available as part of a Scherzer trade package, that doesn’t necessarily mean the right-hander would be available for just anything now, plus other teams would surely gauge Paddack a little differently given his post-deadline injury woes.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed earlier this week, the Padres technically have a rather a large surplus of rotation candidates if everyone is healthy, so Paddack or another arm could possibly be available in trade talks as San Diego looks to make other roster upgrades after the lockout. On the other hand, “if everyone is healthy” is a big if for a Padres team that had so many pitchers sidelined with injuries last season.

Both Lin and Adams noted that the Padres might simply want to hang onto all their rotation depth until they know who or who isn’t healthy. Paddack has also shown a degree of success at the MLB level already, so the Friars could prefer to keep such a big league-ready arm around as a rotation candidate, and instead look to move a pitcher who has little or no Major League experience.

Turning back to the deadline talks, it’s hard to compare offers since we don’t know the full scope of what exactly the Padres offered the Nationals for Scherzer and/or Turner. The combo of Paddack and Campusano was certainly enough to get the ball rolling on talks, but obviously more was required to actually get Washington to part ways with either of its stars. The Nats ended up accepting a four-player package (Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and prospects Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey) from L.A. for both Scherzer and Turner, headlined by big league-ready youngsters in Ruiz and Gray.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2022 at 1:46pm CDT

Click right here to read the transcript of today’s live baseball chat

Latest On Seiya Suzuki’s Market

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2022 at 11:16am CDT

TODAY: In another view of Suzuki’s market, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that “within the industry the Giants and Mariners are seen as the leading contenders” to land the outfielder.

Jan. 27: The consensus among general managers to whom Peter Gammons of The Athletic has spoken is that the Giants are perhaps the favorites to sign Suzuki (Twitter link). Again, it seems difficult to proclaim any concrete favorite when Suzuki has not yet traveled to the U.S. and is still planning multiple in-person meetings, but that bit of informed speculation is nevertheless of some note.

Elsewhere, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Marlins, known to be in the market for another power bat in the outfield, “appreciate” Suzuki’s skill set and have some level of interest, though he characterizes the Fish as something of a long shot to actually push a deal across the finish line.

Jan. 26: Star Nippon Professional Baseball outfielder Seiya Suzuki is set to travel to the United States in preparation for face-to-face negotiations with Major League teams once the lockout is lifted, per a report from Japan’s Nikkan Sports. Suzuki and agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman have already conducted virtual meetings with at least eight clubs, and they’ll continue prepping for advanced negotiations once the transaction freeze has thawed.

Nikkan’s report suggests that the Padres, Cubs, Mariners and Giants are “expected” to be among the finalists for Suzuki once negotiations resume. That’s not an exhaustive list, but it’s worth noting that all four host their Spring Training in Arizona, particularly given this report’s implication that teams with Spring Training camps in Florida may be at a disadvantage when it comes to negotiating with Suzuki. If that’s indeed the case, it’d be a welcome preference for the four “expected” finalists and the Rangers — who’ve also been tied to Suzuki thus far. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays — each of whom hosts Spring Training in Florida — have all been linked to Suzuki as well, however, and Yahoo Japan suggests the Red Sox could be an early favorite (although it seems dubious to crown any kind of front-runner after just nine days of talks and before Suzuki has had a single in-person meeting).

A 27-year-old right fielder who won his fifth NPB Gold Glove in 2021, Suzuki is regarded as the best player to jump from NPB to Major League Baseball since Shohei Ohtani. That’s not a comparison between the two, of course — far from it. Scouting reports on Suzuki peg him as a potential everyday right fielder who can hit for power and play average or better defense, however, which should generate plenty of interest around the league.

MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League evaluators prior to the point at which Suzuki was formally posted by the Hiroshima Carp, receiving generally favorable reviews and hearing at least once that Suzuki is currently the best player in Japan. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times received a similar opinion back in August, and Sports Info Solution’s Ted Baarda took a lengthier look at Suzuki in early November.

Statistically, Suzuki checks every box. He posted a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in Japan, and that’s roughly in line with the type of production he’s delivered dating back to 2018. Over the past four seasons, Suzuki owns a .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances. He’s also walked nearly as often as he’s punched out, drawing a free pass in 16.1% of his plate appearances against just a 16.4% strikeout rate since 2018.

Of course, it remains to be seen just how Suzuki will fare against more advanced pitching. Major League Baseball features, in particular, considerably higher velocity than NPB hitters face on the regular. That’s often led to some struggles from NPB hitters making the jump to North American ball — including recent examples like Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama — but it should be stressed that Suzuki is younger than either was upon coming to MLB and has a much better offensive skill set.

Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, Suzuki will have 21 days remaining in his 30-day posting window. He and Wolfe are free to use the entirety of that three-week window to find a new club, although given the possibility (if not the likelihood) that the start of Spring Training will be delayed, it could behoove them to act sooner than later in order to begin the process of making the already difficult transition to Major League Baseball.

As a reminder, any team that signs Suzuki will also owe a release fee to the Carp. The current iteration of the NPB/MLB posting system stipulates that an MLB team must pay a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any money spent thereafter. That’s on top of the actual value of the contract. So, for instance, a $55MM contract for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM release fee — a total investment of $65.125MM.

Salary that can be unlocked via club/player options, performance incentives, etc. is not immediately factored in but does fall under the purview of the release fee once Suzuki reaches those thresholds. For example, in that same $55MM hypothetical, if Suzuki’s new team were to exercise a $10MM club option for an additional season, they’d owe the Carp an additional $1.5MM in release fees. Were Suzuki to unlock a $1MM bonus based on total plate appearances, another $150K of release fees would go to the Carp.

Rays Notes: Hess, Kiermaier, First Basemen

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2022 at 9:59am CDT

Right-hander David Hess announced back in October that a cancerous germ cell tumor had been discovered in his chest, and he would be undergoing chemotherapy treatments to address the issue. Fortunately, Hess provided a great update on his condition yesterday on Twitter, saying that he had “been ’cured’ and cleared for all activity! There’s a spot that we’re watching but expect to clear in a few weeks. I can’t thank everyone enough for the prayers, support, and love through this. Time to get back to work and on a mound hopefully soon.”

A veteran of four MLB seasons, Hess joined the Rays on a minor league contract back in August and appeared in one Major League game for the team, while also twice being designated for assignment and then outrighted off the 40-man roster. Hess elected free agency after the season but rejoined the Rays on another minors deal in November. With this health scare now hopefully behind him, the 28-year-old Hess can now refocus on baseball and look to win a bullpen job in Spring Training.

Rockies Interested In Kyle Schwarber

By Mark Polishuk | January 29, 2022 at 8:23am CDT

The Rockies had interest in Kyle Schwarber prior to the lockout, The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders writes. With the Rockies known to be looking for outfield help and more hitting in general, it isn’t surprising that Schwarber is on the team’s target list, and Saunders figures the team will make a continued push for the slugger once the transactions freeze is lifted.

Despite the thin air of Coors Field, the Rockies’ lineup has been generally inconsistent over the last few years, and the team now faces the likely departure of Trevor Story in the free agent market. A proven power bat like Schwarber would help greatly in replacing or even topping Story’s offensive production, while also solidifying at least one position within Colorado’s outfield. Beyond longtime staple Charlie Blackmon, the Rox have several outfield options (Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza, Ryan Vilade, and multi-position player Garrett Hampson) but none who present a clear everyday answer.

There’s also the designated hitter spot to consider, as the likely adoption of the universal DH means the Rockies will have another position to address. Schwarber or Blackmon could be options here, and since Schwarber played some first base during his stint with the Red Sox last year, the Rockies could conceivably use Schwarber in the infield when regular first baseman C.J. Cron is given a day off or a DH day.

It isn’t exactly been a quiet offseason in Denver, as the Rockies extended Cron before free agency opened, re-signed Jhoulys Chacin, and the team also worked out extensions with righty Antonio Senzatela and catcher Elias Diaz. However, the Rox and general manager Bill Schmidt haven’t done much in the way of adding any new talent to the roster, despite the organization’s oft-stated goal of contending in 2022.

That said, the Rockies have at least explored some notable additions, as they also had interest in Kris Bryant earlier this winter. Saunders doesn’t feel the Rockies will meet Bryant’s asking price, and that same logic could also apply to a pair of other major outfielders still on the open market. Signing either Michael Conforto or Nick Castellanos (who each rejected the qualifying offer) would cost the Rockies a draft pick, plus Castellanos was also reportedly looking for a long-term commitment of at least seven years for his next contract.

It should be noted that the Rockies would get an compensatory pick if/when Story signs elsewhere, so with some extra draft capital to play with, Schmidt didn’t outright reject the idea of signing a QO free agent. In any case, the qualifying offer doesn’t apply to Schwarber, as his midseason trade to the Red Sox made him ineligible, so he can be signed without any draft pick penalty.

Between the lack of draft compensation, his reported aim for a relatively modest three-year deal in the $60MM range, and his track record at the plate, Schwarber could be considered the most attractive option within the top tier of remaining free agent outfielders (Bryant, Castellanos, Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki). Of course, the Rockies aren’t alone in targeting Schwarber, as the Phillies, Marlins, Nationals, and Red Sox have all shown varied levels of interest in his services this winter, and any number of other teams are also speculative fits. While Schwarber’s contractual ask may fall within Colorado’s comfort zone, then, the Rockies may still have to outbid other teams that can offer either more money, or a more clear-cut chance at contending next season.

The Padres’ Rotation Depth Should Draw Plenty Of Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | January 28, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

As fans look forward to the inevitable post-lockout transaction bonanza, those hoping to see their favorite teams add to the starting rotation are often focused on the Reds and Athletics as potential trade partners — and with good reason. Both Oakland (Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas) and Cincinnati (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle) have three pitchers whom they could feasibly trade in order to cut payroll and add some young talent to the organization. The Marlins, too, are an oft-suggested trade partner for teams needing starting pitchers, even after already dealing Zach Thompson to the Pirates in December’s Jacob Stallings swap.

That said, while those three teams draw much of the focus, the asking prices there will be high. Teams will want alternatives, and the Padres are likely to receive a good bit of interest from those clubs. That’s not because San Diego is embarking on any sort of rebuilding effort, but rather because of the team’s plethora of rotation options and the ever-aggressive, never-rule-anything-out nature of president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller.

Since taking the reins in San Diego, Preller has taken multiple offseasons or trade deadlines by storm with a flurry of activity. The “rock star GM” moniker bestowed upon him by Matt Kemp has become infamous, but Preller repeatedly lives up to the spirit of the nickname by demonstrating a flair for bold, dramatic strikes that reshape the organization.

The Padres staff struggled through injuries and some surprising ineffectiveness in 2021 but is still deep with arms who either have ample big league success or considerable upside. San Diego’s 2022 rotation currently projects to include Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and NPB returnee Nick Martinez, who agreed to a surprising four-year, $20MM contract prior to the lockout after a dominant showing in Japan.

Beyond that quintet, the Padres could have another full rotation’s worth of intriguing arms, albeit some of whom have had some recent struggles and/or injuries. Right-hander Dinelson Lamet has had the most recent success of the bunch, utterly dominating in the shortened 2020 season — 2.09 ERA 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate in 69 innings — before a UCL strain kept him from contributing in the postseason. He missed much of the 2021 season on the injured list and wasn’t as effective upon his return, but he’d be a front-of-the-rotation talent if his arm held up. The Padres may use him in relief this season, but there’s a big ceiling to dream on with Lamet, who’s controlled via arbitration through 2023.

Righty Chris Paddack has yet to regain the form he showed in a 2019 debut campaign that saw him in Rookie of the Year contention before falling to injury. He was diagnosed with a slight UCL tear late last season but is expected ready for the ’22 campaign. Paddack registered a pedestrian 4.95 ERA in 167 1/3 innings from 2020-21, but he’s still only 26 years old and boasts one of MLB’s lowest walk rates, in addition to a fastball that averages nearly 95 mph. He’s controlled through 2024.

Lefty Adrian Morejon, one of the prize signings from Preller’s international signing blitz during the Padres’ rebuild, will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. His MLB experience is limited, but he’s still just 22 and ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects for a half decade while rising through the system. He’s still under club control through 2025.

Another southpaw, Ryan Weathers, was the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2018. Though he only recently turned 22, Weathers debuted in the Majors this past season and held his own early on before a rocky finish. Weathers carried a 2.73 ERA (albeit with shakier peripheral marks) through 62 2/3 innings before being clobbered over the final two months and closing out the season with a 5.32 earned run average. It was a rough finish, but Weathers is a 22-year-old former top pick and top prospect with a strong (albeit brief, thanks to the wiped-out 2020 season) minor league track record.

Twenty-five-year-old right-hander Reiss Knehr doesn’t come with the prospect fanfare that some others in the system do, but he still rode a strong minor league effort to his Major League debut late in the season. A 20th-round pick in 2018, Knehr notched a 3.57 ERA with strong ground-ball rates through 75 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to the big leagues. His 4.97 ERA and 20-to-20 K/BB ratio in the Majors won’t wow anyone, but it was only 29 innings for a 24-year-old rookie who’d never pitched above A-ball coming into the season.

Most enigmatically, southpaw MacKenzie Gore remains in the Padres’ system but has seen his stock plummet. A former No. 3 overall pick who entered the 2020 campaign ranked among the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, the 22-year-old Gore (23 next month) has yet to receive a call to the big leagues even as the Padres have repeatedly dealt with injuries and tapped into the depths of their system.

Gore got out to a dismal start with Triple-A El Paso in 2021, struggling enough for the Padres to push the reset button by taking him out of games and sending him to their spring facility to work on refining his mechanics. When he took the mound again late in the season, Gore looked stronger, posting a 2.67 ERA with a 43-to-16 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings (six starts) across Rookie ball, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s fallen completely off Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, but Gore is still young and teeming with raw talent. A few sharp months in Triple-A would have him right back on the cusp of the Majors.

That’s not even the full extent of San Diego’s near-MLB depth, either. Righty Pedro Avila may ultimately end up in the bullpen but has had some Double-A/Triple-A success and already gotten his feet wet in the Majors. Right-hander Adrian Martinez, 25, was selected to the 40-man roster prior to the lockout after dominating in Double-A and reaching Triple-A for the first time in 2021.

Thanks to a slew of win-now trades, the Padres’ farm system isn’t what it once was, but the wealth of pitching depth they’ve accumulated is nevertheless impressive. It also provides Preller and his lieutenants with fodder to make virtually any type of trade imaginable, and history has shown us that more often than not, Preller’s Padres will do just that. The nice part, however, is that there’s no pressure to move any one specific individual. Each of Paddack, Morejon, Weathers, Knehr, Gore, Avila and Martinez has minor league options remaining, so there’s no “on-the-bubble” pitcher who runs the risk of being exposed to waivers at the end of Spring Training.

With so many rotation options on hand, there’s any number of avenues the Padres could pursue following the transaction freeze. Holding onto the lot is, of course, a perfectly defensible route to chart, but even if the Padres aren’t actively shopping pitchers, other teams will come calling. Pitching-needy teams like the Nationals, Twins, Rangers, for instance, might like to get their hands on someone like Paddack or Weathers — a controllable arm without an immediate path to regular innings on the MLB roster in San Diego.

It’s also worth recalling the multiple points at which it was reported that the Padres had explored the possibility of getting out from under the remainder of Eric Hosmer’s contract. Both the Rangers and the Cubs at least entertained the possibility of taking on Hosmer as part of a deal that would net them a high-end prospect, and while there’s no guarantee those specific talks will be rekindled, it’s easy to dream up scenarios where Hosmer would be packaged with some young pitching to help facilitate a deal. Similar scenarios with Wil Myers make some sense, too.

To be clear, the Padres don’t need to move any of their rotation depth. Beyond the fact that all of the candidates listed here have options remaining (outside of the projected Opening Day quintet), San Diego will soon have a need for some new blood in the starting staff. Both Musgrove and Clevinger are free agents after the 2022 season. Snell and Darvish are signed through 2023 (the same point at which Lamet can first become a free agent). They’ll need some of these young arms to step up and solidify themselves as long-term options.

Still, the Padres are typically among the most aggressive and active clubs in baseball, and few teams have such a deep reserve of near-MLB rotation candidates. At the very least, other clubs throughout the league are going to be trying to pry some pitching loose from San Diego — particularly now that the free-agent market has been largely picked over. There’s a whole lot of focus on the available starters in Oakland and Cincinnati, but asking prices will be high there, and teams still in need of pitching are going to be mining the market for alternatives. San Diego has more of those than most.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract

By Anthony Franco | January 28, 2022 at 10:12pm CDT

Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.

Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.

That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.

Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.

So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.

Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?

(poll links for app users)

Dodgers, Sam Gaviglio Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | January 28, 2022 at 7:57pm CDT

The Dodgers have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Sam Gaviglio, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams (on Twitter). The Oregon State product had been a minor league free agent after finishing the 2021 campaign as a member of the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers.

Gaviglio didn’t appear in the majors last year, his first since 2016 with no MLB action. Between 2017-20, he appeared as a member of Mariners, Royals and Blue Jays. Working in a swing capacity, Gaviglio tossed 296 2/3 cumulative innings in 98 outings (including 37 starts). He didn’t miss many bats, striking out only 19.1% of batters faced on a 9.1% swinging strike percentage.

To his credit, the former fifth-rounder has demonstrated strong control (7.2% walk rate) and induced a decent number of worm-burners (48% grounder rate). He owns a career 4.88 ERA/4.37 SIERA, struggling at times to keep the ball in the yard in spite of his capable ground-ball numbers. Gaviglio hasn’t had the same homer troubles in Triple-A, though, where he owns a 4.19 ERA over parts of five seasons.

Last year, Gaviglio began the season in the Rangers organization, having signed a minors pact in January. He made just five starts with Triple-A Round Rock before being granted his release to pursue the aforementioned opportunity in South Korea. Gaviglio started all 15 of his outings with the Landers, working to a 5.86 ERA with a 19.9% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk percentage.

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