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Have Certain Free Agent Former MLB Stars Already Played Their Last Game?

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This year, we’ve seen former quality MLB players such as Joakim Soria, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Nick Markakis, Hector Rondon, Jordan Zimmermann, Welington Castillo, and Nate Jones decide to retire.  All current MLB free agents are experiencing the first work stoppage of their career right now.  Should the lockout end sometime in February, there could be a burst of concentrated free agent signings and trades unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

While that will likely work out just fine for the likes of Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Freddie Freeman, a free agent frenzy could also include a cold shoulder toward former MLB stars nearing the end of their careers.  Instead of putting the finishing touches on rosters with a sprinkling of February or March one-year MLB deals and minor league deals, front offices will be working to acquire many significant star and mid-tier free agents and trade targets when the lockout ends.  It stands to reason that many veterans with declining skills will be told they need to wait even longer before a team is willing to commit.  That could leave former stars without jobs.  Rich Hill has a deal with the Red Sox heading into his age-42 season, but let’s take a look at eight elder statesmen who may at least consider retirement.

  • Albert Pujols: 42 in January, Pujols mashed lefties and gave the Dodgers a veteran presence off the bench this year.  Back in October, he said, “I don’t think my time to retire has come. I don’t want to sit in my house next year, knowing that I can still keep playing.”  Pujols is 21 home runs shy of 700 for his career, and he’d be aided by the addition of the NL DH.
  • Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman, 37, had an October send-off at Nationals Park but hasn’t publicly made a decision about retirement.  At a press conference, he said, “Do I want to keep playing? I think I can keep playing. I think I had a really good year with the role that I was supposed to do, and now it’s a decision of whether I want to keep doing that, or do I want to be around my family a little bit more. I think the only thing I kind of told Davey is I started the season around 50/50 and it hasn’t gone up.”  GM Mike Rizzo said Zimmerman has an MLB contract with the team as long as he wants it.
  • Brett Gardner: Gardner, 38, scuffled with the bat this year but wasn’t much worse than he was in 2016 or ’18.  He wants to return to the Yankees in 2022, but chose a $1.15MM buyout over a $2.3MM player option.
  • Nelson Cruz: Cruz, 41, has been defying age for many years but managed only a 96 wRC+ in 238 plate appearances after a trade to the Rays.  Before the season, Cruz said “retirement is not on my mind,” and now he might have the chance to DH in the National League.  Cruz is tied with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero at 40th on the all-time home run leaderboard with 449.  It’s easy to see Cruz striving for the 500 club, which currently has 28 members.
  • Jed Lowrie: Lowrie, 38 in April, played only nine games from 2019-20, encompassing his contract with the Mets.  This year, surprisingly, he played 139 games for the A’s.  Lowrie struggled in the season’s final two months, but thus far he’s given no indication he’s looking to retire.
  • Zack Greinke: Greinke, 38, gave up 20 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his final four regular season appearances, ballooning his ERA from 3.41 to 4.16.  He battled through COVID-19 and neck soreness, but capped his season by giving the Astros four scoreless innings to start Game 4 of the World Series.  Asked after the game if he wants to continue playing, Greinke declined to answer.  Back in March, Greinke said, “Hopefully, I’ll pitch a lot longer still, but a lot of things come into play on whether you’re allowed to pitch as long as you want to and stuff.”
  • J.A. Happ: Happ, 39, posted a 6.77 ERA in 19 starts for the Twins, but managed a 4.00 mark in 11 outings after being traded to the Cardinals.  He’s given no indication about retirement.
  • Jon Lester: Lester, 38 in January, also pitched better upon a trade to the Cardinals this year.  Asked in September about playing in 2022, Lester was reportedly noncommittal.  He reached his 200th career win on September 20th.

If Not The Braves, Where Could Freddie Freeman Sign?

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32-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman, once of baseball’s best hitters, entered the lockout without a home.  After 12 years with the Braves and coming off a championship, the assumption is that Atlanta remains the favorite.

The last information we have on Freeman’s negotiations with the Braves dates back to mid-November.  On November 12th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today put it this way, reporting from the GM Meetings in Carlsbad:

“Free agent Freddie Freeman was on the mind of every team seeking a first baseman, with Freeman rejecting Atlanta’s five-year, $135 million offer, and seeking closer to a six-year, $200 million deal. Yet, you couldn’t find a soul who believes Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta.”

Jon Heyman of MLB Network generally concurred in a report four days later, writing, “Last heard 6th year was still at issue in Freeman/Braves talks but situation is fluid and they’ve still got to be considered the favorite.”  A few weeks after that, Heyman suggested the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays are “trying to pry” Freeman away from the Braves, even though those clubs find it unlikely.

Will the Braves or Freeman crack on the sixth year issue once the lockout ends?  Would Freeman take a lower AAV than the expected $30MM+ to convince the Braves to commit to a sixth year, perhaps at something like six years and $160MM?  Whatever needs to happen to get it done, the impending lockout did not create enough pressure to result in an agreement.  You’d have to think Freeman’s chances of leaving the Braves are around their highest point, whatever those chances are.  The Braves have let it get to a point where Freeman has no team, and other teams likely made offers.

Let’s assume something like MLBTR’s six-year, $180MM projection would be needed to lure Freeman away from the Braves.  Signing Freeman would also likely require draft pick forfeiture.  If not the Braves, which teams could reasonably do that contract?  Let’s start by assessing Heyman’s trio.

  • Dodgers: The Dodgers doing a six-year contract for another team’s 32-year-old free agent?  Andrew Friedman has been in charge for seven years now, and he’s given out four-plus years to another team’s free agent two times: four years to Brandon McCarthy in 2014, and four years to AJ Pollock in 2019.  Under Friedman, the club did go to four years to retain Justin Turner and Chris Taylor and five to keep Kenley Jansen in free agency.  They also notably did a 12-year extension with Mookie Betts before he played a regular season game with the team.  But six years to Freeman along with the forfeiture of the Dodgers’ second and fifth round draft picks?  I just don’t see it.  Signing Freeman would also require Max Muncy to spend more time at second or third base, but the addition of an NL DH could alleviate a potential logjam.
  • Yankees: The Yankees basically did nothing to improve the team prior to the lockout, so there’s the idea they could add Freeman’s sweet-swinging lefty bat in lieu of their more pressing need at shortstop.  Even if Freeman costs $180MM, that’s still likely over $100MM less than Carlos Correa.  The team could and would likely have to exceed a new 2022 competitive balance tax threshold to sign Freeman, but they may be willing to do so after staying below the line in 2021.  Adding Freeman would do nothing to solve the shortstop issue, and it would also crowd out Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres to a degree.  One of them could be traded to accommodate Freeman.  Still, Freeman is an imperfect fit for a team that is also in need of rotation help.
  • Blue Jays: Speaking of imperfect Freeman fits, the Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base.  Assuming Freeman doesn’t intend to mostly shelve his first baseman’s glove, Vlad Jr. would have to spend most of his time at designated hitter – fresh off a second-place MVP finish and Silver Slugger award.  A shift back to third base for Guerrero would seem even more risky.  It’s also worth noting that signing Freeman would permanently plug up Toronto’s DH spot, where George Springer spent nearly half his games in 2021.  I think the Blue Jays could swing the financial commitment to Freeman, and I get the idea of replacing Marcus Semien’s bat, but this is not a great roster fit.

So we’ve looked at the three teams Heyman linked to Freeman, and none seem like a perfect fit.  Let’s look at all the other even slightly plausible options.

    • White Sox: They’ve got Jose Abreu at first base, but only through 2022.  They’ve also got flexibility in the DH spot, so the roster fit could work.  Financially, though, I’d be quite surprised to see the White Sox make this level of commitment given their current payroll situation.
    • Tigers: There’s a sense that the Tigers have finished their major spending after the Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez signings.  But man, would Freeman be a game-changer in Detroit.  They’ve got Jonathan Schoop at first base and Miguel Cabrera at DH, neither of whom should block a player like Freeman.  Freeman could get in the way of top prospect Spencer Torkelson, who played more first base than third this year in the minors.  Plus, the club has Jeimer Candelario at third base.  I don’t think the Tigers will pursue Freeman, but if they had the desire to spend the money I think the roster could be figured out.
    • Red Sox: The Red Sox have Bobby Dalbec at first base, who came on very strong in the season’s final two months.  They’ve got J.D. Martinez at DH, but only for one more year.  They also have first base prospect Triston Casas.  Roster-wise, the Red Sox have good options at first for the long-term, though no established Major Leaguers.  They also have a GM who’s yet to give a free agent more than $14MM.  As with Andrew Friedman, this just doesn’t seem like Chaim Bloom’s way of doing things.
    • Astros: The Astros have Yuli Gurriel at first base, but only for one more year.  They’ve got Yordan Alvarez as the regular DH.  Signing Freeman would probably necessitate a Gurriel trade.  The Astros do have the payroll flexibility to accommodate Freeman, but they seem like yet another big market club that would shy away from signing a corner infielder through age 37 – especially since they don’t seem to want to pay Carlos Correa past age 31.
    • Angels:  The Angels are committed to Shohei Ohtani as DH for two more years, and they’d surely like to lock up the AL MVP beyond that.  And Jared Walsh took over first base quite capably for the Halos this year.  Like the Yankees, shortstop and the rotation are more pressing needs.  It’s difficult to see Freeman landing here.
    • Mariners: The Mariners have Ty France at first base, plus Evan White under contract through 2025.  They don’t have a set DH, but Kyle Lewis and Luis Torrens are projected to spend time there in 2022.  France could potentially play some second or third base, if the Mariners decided to accommodate Freeman.  The Mariners spent big on Robbie Ray and traded for Adam Frazier, but they’re known to be in the hunt for a significant position player addition.  I consider Freeman within the realm of possibility, though the more versatile Kris Bryant would fit better if the price tag is similar.
    • Rangers: The Rangers have Nathaniel Lowe at first base, and no set DH.  Lowe had a nice year for a player who hits the ball on the ground 55% of the time, but bumping him to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be problematic.  It’d be staggering for the Rangers to add Freeman after already committing $561.2MM to four free agents, though they could afford it.  Pitching has to be a higher priority for this team, but who’s to say they can’t do both?
    • Cubs: The Cubs have Frank Schwindel penciled in at first base after a strong couple of months, and no NL team has an incumbent DH.  Schwindel is 29 and there was nothing special about his exit velocity or launch angle even in his successful stint.  Pushing Schwindel to DH for Freeman wouldn’t be an issue, and the team did make a statement with the Marcus Stroman signing.  But that was a surprisingly short three-year deal, and with Freeman we’re talking about double that term to a player who is 19 months older.  Freeman just doesn’t fit with the long-term payroll flexibility GM Jed Hoyer enjoys.
    • Cardinals: The team has Paul Goldschmidt under contract for three more years, but again, an NL DH would open things up.  Signing Freeman would mean stretching payroll to a franchise record, and I doubt the team considers first base/DH a position of need.
    • Marlins: The Marlins have Jesus Aguilar under control for next year, but he’s not much of an impediment for a player like Freeman.  Here, it’s all about money.  A team with a $65MM payroll can afford Freeman, but Avisail Garcia’s $53MM deal seemed like the Marlins’ big free agency strike.  Freeman would require more than triple that commitment.
    • Mets: The Mets have to be listed here in the name of, “How crazy can Steve Cohen get?”  Crazy enough to add Freeman to the $254.5MM the club already committed to free agents this winter, while also forfeiting the 14th pick in next year’s draft?  Even with a more significant need in the rotation?  I don’t expect Cohen to steal Freeman away from the Braves, but it’d be the ultimate power move.
    • Phillies: The Phillies have Rhys Hoskins for two more years.  He’s been an excellent hitter, though he will be coming off lower abdomen surgery.  The Phillies’ needs at shortstop, third base, left field, and center field are much more stark than at first base/DH.  They also have a fairly bloated payroll situation.  I suppose Dave Dombrowski could simplify and try to sign Freeman in the name of adding the top bat, but it’d be a surprising choice.
    • Nationals: One year of Josh Bell wouldn’t block Freeman.  And should the Nats really take any kind of step back with only three more years of control of Juan Soto?  But it just doesn’t sound like the Nationals are looking to take on a commitment of this nature this winter.
    • Rockies: They’ve got C.J. Cron at first base, but could easily move him to DH for Freeman.  The Rockies have relatively modest commitments, which drop quite a bit as of 2024.  As a team with real and surprising interest in Kris Bryant, we should consider a possible pursuit of Freeman as well.
    • Padres: Freeman is an excellent roster fit for the Padres, who have an underperforming Eric Hosmer locked in through 2025.  The team’s payroll is pushing $200MM already, so GM A.J. Preller would need to get creative and move contracts to fit Freeman in.  It’s a possibility that can’t be ruled out.
    • Giants: The Giants haven’t really demonstrated their financial might yet, committing $99.4MM to four free agents without topping Anthony DeSclafani’s $36MM.  DH is the ideal spot for the injury-prone Brandon Belt.  Farhan Zaidi does seem to come from the increasingly common GM school of thought that eschews long-term free agent commitments, even in big markets.  He’d have to buck that trend to sign Freeman, but otherwise it’s reasonable enough.
    • Brewers: The Brewers are a contending team with Rowdy Tellez penciled in at first base, so they at least warrant a mention.  It’s just hard to see them outbidding the field to land Freeman in that $180MM range.  I could write something very similar for the Guardians.

You’ve seen my opinions; now it’s your turn (direct poll link for app users here).

Orioles Notes: Bullpen, Catcher, Mancini

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As expected, it has been another fairly quiet offseason in Baltimore to this point. The Orioles have made a pair of low-cost big league deals, signing infielder Rougned Odor for the league minimum salary and agreeing to terms on a $7MM guarantee with starter Jordan Lyles. (The Lyles deal was agreed to in the waning hours before the lockout and wasn’t made official prior to the transactions freeze, but it’s expected to be finalized whenever the lockout ends).

The O’s are entering year four of what has been a massive rebuild. The big league roster is still a ways worse than the rest of those in the loaded American League East, and it never seemed likely Baltimore would make a major splash this winter. That said, there’s plenty of room for general manager Mike Elias and his staff to continue to make smaller additions in the Odor/Lyles mold — both to make the team more respectable and perhaps stumble upon a midseason trade chip if things break well.

Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Baltimore is likely to add at least one reliever to the big league club whenever transactions are again permitted. That could take the form of a free agent signee or the selection of a bullpen arm in the big league portion of the Rule 5 draft, which is expected to take place after the lockout.

There’s not a ton of sense for the rebuilding Orioles in signing a big-name closer like Kenley Jansen, yet the free agent market still offers plenty of lower-cost middle relief or reclamation candidates who may be of interest. It’s fairly common to see teams also take fliers on relievers in the Rule 5 draft. Baltimore added two bullpen arms — Mac Sceroler and Tyler Wells — in last year’s Rule 5. Sceroler didn’t stick with the O’s, but Wells looks likely to have a spot in the 2022 ’pen after tossing 57 innings of 4.11 ERA ball with a strong 29% strikeout rate as a rookie.

In addition to the search for bullpen help, Kubatko suggests the O’s are likely to continue to pursue catching depth. The O’s don’t have a single backstop on their 40-man roster. Top prospect Adley Rutschman figures to be in the majors relatively early next season, and he’d no doubt get the lion’s share of playing time whenever the organization brings him up. Yet the O’s will at least need somebody to back up Rutschman, and it’s possible they start their top farmhand in Triple-A (perhaps past the threshold for the 23-year-old to accrue a full year of MLB service).

If Rutschman returns to the Orioles’ top affiliate in Norfolk to open the season, they’ll need to select two other backstops to the big league roster. They’ve already signed Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom to minor league deals, and Kubatko writes that they’re hoping to add another backstop to the high levels of the system, either via minors pact or the Rule 5. Players who didn’t finish the season on a 40-man roster or MLB injured list are permitted to sign non-roster deals during the lockout, so it’s possible the Orioles bolster their catching depth even prior to the signing of a new CBA.

Even as they add around the margins, the Orioles seem open to offers on virtually anyone on the roster. Reports from earlier in the offseason indicated the O’s were willing to take calls on both star center fielder Cedric Mullins and top starter John Means, and Kubatko writes there’s still a “slim possibility” they move first baseman/DH Trey Mancini. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball wrote last week that there’s not yet been any progress on a potential extension for Mancini, who’s entering his final year of arbitration control.

It’s an inopportune time for the Orioles to make a deal involving Mancini, though. The 29-year-old (30 in March) missed all of 2020 battling colon cancer. His return to the field this past season was heartwarming, and his advancement to the final round of the Home Run Derby made for one of the sport’s best stories. Trading Mancini would be a tough blow to a significant portion of the organization and fanbase.

He’s also simply a difficult player for rival clubs to value. Mancini played in 147 games and tallied 616 plate appearances, impressive durability considering what’d he had to endure the year prior. His .255/.326/.432 slash line was a rather significant step back from 2019’s .291/.364/.535 mark though. It’s certainly understandable his production might suffer in the wake of a battle with cancer, and Mancini’s shown himself capable of putting up far better numbers in the past. It’s arguable the O’s may be better suited holding onto him into 2022 in the hope that he bounces back to peak form over the first few months. That’d allow the front office more time to determine whether to pursue a long-term deal or attempt to move Mancini in advance of next summer’s trade deadline.

MLB Lockout Reader Survey

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Today marks Day 26 of the MLB lockout, as we trudge toward the end of the quietest December this website has ever seen.  The new year begins Saturday, and there’s an expectation MLB and the players’ union will resume negotiating core economic issues sometime in January.

The collective bargaining agreement expired on December 1st and MLB instituted a lockout, and the time since has been a waste: no notable movement on a new CBA, and of course a freeze on free agent signings and trades.  The only dates that seem likely to motivate either side are related to Spring Training.  Normally we’d see pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training the week of February 14.  And the Spring Training game schedule has been in place for months, with games set to kick off February 26.  So February 26 is the next real pressure point, as canceling Spring Training games will result in tangible revenue loss for teams.  It’s entirely possible we won’t see any real CBA movement until February.

Seeing as how we’re mired in the first work stoppage of MLBTR’s 16-year history, I’d like to see where our readers stand on several key issues.  Check out our eight-question survey below.  You can click here for a direct link to it, and click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

NPB’s Yomiuri Giants Re-Sign Thyago Vieira, Zelous Wheeler

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The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball have re-signed right-hander Thyago Vieira and first baseman/outfielder Zelous Wheeler, according to reports out of Japan.  Both players will be entering their third season with the Giants, though Wheeler is a longtime veteran of NPB, having also played with the Rakuten Golden Eagles from 2015-2019.

Vieira tossed 25 2/3 innings over parts of three seasons with the Mariners and White Sox from 2017-19, with a 7.36 ERA to show from this brief taste of the majors.  The hard-throwing righty found his groove after joining the Tokyo-based Giants  prior to the 2020 campaign, and he has a 3.04 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate over 80 relief innings in the last two seasons.  A 12.4% walk rate represents the down side of those numbers, as Vieira’s big fastball has been undermined by a lack of control both in American and Japanese baseball.

Back in October, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that as many as five big league clubs had interest in bringing Vieira back to North America, though no deal materialized prior to the lockout.  It could be that Vieira simply preferred to remain in a familiar environment rather than compete with a rush of other pitchers scrambling for contracts once the transactions freeze eventually ends, as there wasn’t necessarily a sure thing that Vieira would even have landed a guaranteed Major League deal.

Wheeler turns 35 next month, and though his only MLB experience was 62 plate appearances with the Yankees in 2014, the veteran is now set to enter his 16th season in pro ball.  A 19th-round pick for the Brewers back in 2007, Wheeler spent eight years in the Milwaukee, Baltimore, and New York organizations before embarking on what has become a lengthy stint in Japan.  Wheeler has hit .264/.339/.458 with 133 home runs over his 3107 plate appearances in NPB, bouncing back from a down year in 2020 to hit .290/.358/.477 with 15 homers in 439 PA for last season’s Giants club.

KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Socrates Brito, Ronnie Williams

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed outfielder Socrates Brito and right-hander Ronnie Williams to one-year contracts, the team announced.  Reports out of South Korea last week indicated that Brito was joining the Gwangju-based team (hat tip to The Athletic’s Sung Min Kim).

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Brito will earn a $600K salary with another $300K available in contract incentives, with the Yonhap News’ Jeeho Yoo noting that $100K of Brito’s guaranteed money is a signing bonus.  Also via Yoo, Williams will get a $300K salary and a $100K signing bonus, with $350K more available in incentives.

Brito has appeared in parts of four MLB seasons, hitting .179/.216/.309 over 218 plate appearances with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays from 2015-19.  He signed a minor league contract with the Pirates in 2020 and played at the team’s alternate training site, but opted out of the season in September for tragic reasons, as Brito’s brother passed away from COVID-19.  Returning to the field in 2021, Brito hit .251/.315/.376 over 419 PA with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate.

This performance represented a notable step down from Brito’s usual strong Triple-A numbers, as he had always produced in his previous stops with the Diamondbacks’ and Jays’ top farm clubs.  Some dropoff isn’t unusual given a full year away from the game, though it was Brito’s first season outside of a Triple-A environment that was very favorable to hitters.  Arizona’s Triple-A team played in the Pacific Coast League, while the 2019 season (which Brito spent with Toronto’s Buffalo affiliate) saw offensive numbers explode all across Triple-A baseball.

A trip to the KBO League might be what Brito needs to get his career back on track, as he enters his age 29 season.  A noted prospect in his early days with the D’Backs, Brito can play any of the three outfield positions, though he has has more recently been deployed in the corners.

Williams turns 26 in early January, and the righty already has seven seasons of pro experience.  A second-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2014 draft, Williams spent his first six years in the St. Louis organization before the Giants claimed him off waivers last winter.  The Miami native has a 4.24 ERA and 21.41% strikeout rate over 409 1/3 career innings in the minors, pitching mostly as a reliever over his last three seasons.  Only 15 2/3 of those innings came at the Triple-A level, as Williams didn’t reach Triple-A until this year in the Giants’ system.

The $400K (and the incentive possibilities) represent a much higher salary than Williams would have earned in the minors this year, and it makes sense that he would take the guaranteed money now rather than roll the dice on signing another minor league deal and trying to finally crack a big league roster.  The Tigers deal also allows Williams for some chance at reinvention, and a chance to showcase his skills for either further opportunities abroad or for MLB scouts.

East Notes: Rogers Centre, Ocumarez, Vazquez, Nationals

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The Blue Jays are planning extensive renovations at Rogers Centre, as Venues Now’s Don Muret reports that the club will spend $200-$250MM in upgrades to the ballpark.  The specifics of the renovations aren’t known, though Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that the work is “likely to include a redesign of the stadium’s lower bowl.”  Given the potential scale of the redesigns, Davidi speculates that the renovations may slowly take place over the next few years, with work restricted to the offseason so fans or team personnel won’t be impacted during regular-season games.

Rogers Centre (which opened in 1989) is the seventh-oldest of all active Major League ballparks, and while the Jays were known to be exploring their options for building a new stadium near the current property or perhaps elsewhere in Toronto, the pandemic seems to have changed the team’s plans.  Renovating Rogers Centre now seems like the preferred and simpler route for the Blue Jays, rather than spend years finding and developing a new site.

More from both the AL and NL East divisions…

  • The Marlins have hired Roman Ocumarez as the team’s new international director, according to ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Twitter link).  Ocumarez comes to Miami from the Astros, where he worked as a scout and most recently as an international scouting supervisor.  Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are just a few of the notable signings credited to Ocumarez, with that particular trio already providing a huge return on the Astros’ total investment of $40K in bonus money.  The Marlins will look for Ocumarez to continue that success at finding hidden gems, and carrying on the Marlins’ own history of finding and developing quality international prospects.
  • Christian Vazquez has begun playing winter ball in Puerto Rico, as The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Vazquez feels the extra work will help him bounce back from a disappointing year at the plate.  The Red Sox catcher hit only .258/.308/.352 in 498 plate appearances, and he is now in the final year of his contract after Boston exercised its $7MM club option on Vazquez’s services for 2022.  Obviously, better numbers will help re-establish Vazquez as a reliable starting catcher and line him up for his next deal, whether that contract could come with the Sox or another team.  There has already been an indication that the Red Sox are looking beyond Vazquez, as the team was reportedly close to acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates before Pittsburgh ultimately dealt the catcher to the Marlins.  Speier observes that Vazquez decided to play winter ball of his own volition, as the Red Sox aren’t allowed to be in contact with players due to the lockout, and might well have not permitted the veteran backstop to participate under normal circumstances.
  • Relief pitching has been an issue for the Nationals for years, and in looking ahead to next season, the Nats have already acquired Francisco Perez from the Guardians and added three relievers in the minor league Rule 5 Draft.  As The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty notes, this can help the Nationals augment a bullpen that has already parted ways with several members of its 2021 relief corps, and is lacking in homegrown minor league relievers who could provide immediate help.

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Troy Tulowitzki Discusses Retirement, Future Plans

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It has now been over two years since Troy Tulowitzki announced his retirement from his playing days, and Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post recently caught up with the former superstar and discussed various topics, including how he’s been making use of his post-playing time.

Tulo retired at a relatively young age for a player of his caliber, as he was just 34 at the time. However, it wasn’t his heart or his soul that took him off the field. “I won’t say that I wanted to retire at that point because I still loved playing the game,” he told Saunders. “Unfortunately, my body didn’t let me keep playing.” This isn’t terribly surprising to hear from the man himself, as baseball fans could see the toll injuries were taking on him as his career progressed. After playing over 100 games for five straight seasons from 2007 to 2011, he was limited to 47 games in 2012 and just 91 in 2014. He played two nearly full seasons in 2015 and 2016, but then just 66 games in 2017 before missing the 2018 season entirely. He played five games for the Yanks in 2019 before deciding to hang up his spikes.

Despite the frustrating injuries, Tulowitzki has maintained his passion for the game and is now channeling it into coaching. “The day I announced my retirement, I had already decided I wanted to get started coaching at a major D-I school,” he said, before detailing how he viewed himself as having less natural talent than a phenom like Alex Rodriguez. “But because of all the work that I put in, and how focused I was on my craft, I made myself really good. I know how I got there, and that’s why I’ve always thought coaching was for me.”

Since his retirement, Tulowitzki has been been pursuing his coaching desires, spending time working with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and Athlete Development Program, in addition to a position as volunteer assistant coach for the University of Texas. As noted by Saunders, Tulowitzki quickly became a mentor figure at a young age during his time with the Rockies, and for Nolan Arenado in particular, making the transition to coaching a natural one. “My favorite part is developing the young kids and showing them the ins and outs of the game,” Tulo says.

Does that mean Tulo could return to the big leagues someday? Saunders says that Tulowitzki “has had nibbles from major league teams about possible coaching or working in the front office,” but that Tulo and his wife are busy raising their seven-year-old son, meaning the current role with the University of Texas aligns well with his parenting duties. But he seems open-minded about whatever the future has in store for him, saying, “I just look at it like I did as a player. You just do your job every day and then if you have an opportunity that you like, then you think about it.”

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