Cubs Expected To Pursue Dylan Cease This Offseason
Free agency won’t officially begin until five days after the conclusion of the World Series, but teams are already well into the process of making their plans for the coming offseason. For many teams, that will include pursuits of some of the winter’s top free agent talent. While Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker is widely viewed as the top hitter headed into free agency this November, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reported a connection between Chicago and one of the winter’s top pitchers: right-hander Dylan Cease. Levine reports that the Cubs are viewed as a potential top suitor for Cease and that he will be pursued by the North Siders this winter.
Cease has significant ties both to the city of Chicago and the Cubs organization as a whole. Drafted by the Cubs in the sixth-round of the 2014 draft, Cease developed into a top-100 prospect in the Cubs organization before being traded alongside Eloy Jimenez in the crosstown deal that brought Jose Quintana to Chicago prior to the 2017 trade deadine. While neither Jimenez nor Quintana quite lived up to expectations during their stints with their new clubs, Cease turned into the sort of top-of-the-rotation arm the White Sox were surely dreaming of when they made the trade. He was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award with the South Siders in 2022 in his age-26 season and was traded to the Padres just before the start of the 2024 campaign for a package headlined by top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe.
2024 saw Cease put together another ace-level campaign as he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 33 starts while striking out 29.4% of his opponents. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young award voting and even garnered some down-ballot MVP consideration. That seemed to set up Cease up for a major payday in free agency as long as he could keep it up in 2025, but he stumbled this year with a rather pedestrian 4.55 ERA in 168 innings of work. Cease’s peripherals were a good deal better than his results suggested, but a tough 2025 season creates a pattern of inconsistency that might worry some suitors after a similarly pedestrian 2023.
Cease might lack the sort of year-to-year consistency many clubs look for when searching for an ace to carry their pitching staff, but it’s still easy to see why he would be attractive to teams. The right-hander has been one of the game’s most durable arms in recent years, and his peripherals have remained far more consistent than his actual results. He’s struck out at least 200 batters in five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts and a 165 innings in each of those seasons. While his ERA has fluctuated between 2.20 and 4.58 across those five seasons, his FIP (between 3.10 and 3.72) and SIERA (between 3.46 and 4.10) have been far more stable. While Cease’s 3.72 ERA ranks 29th among starters with at least 500 innings of work since 2021, his FIP (12th), SIERA (22nd), and xERA (11th) all rank more favorably.
Perhaps most importantly for the Cubs specifically, Cease throws hard and racks up strikeouts. His strikeout rate ranks 3rd in that aforementioned group, behind only Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole. His fastball velocity, likewise, ranks third behind Cole and Sandy Alcantara in that same group. Cease actually threw harder than his career average this year with a 97.1 mph fastball velocity. That was good for sixth among qualified starters this season, and his strikeout rate trailed on Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet. For a Cubs rotation that had the third-lowest fastball velocity in the majors at just 93.1 and put together a pedestrian 20.5% strikeout rate, Cease would be the sort of power pitcher a generally soft-tossing Cubs rotation could really benefit from.
As good of a fit for the Cubs as Cease might seem to be on paper, that shouldn’t be taken to mean a deal is necessarily likely to get done. Cease will have plenty of suitors as one of the top starters on the market, and big spenders like the Mets are known to be in the market for rotation help this winter. Cease’s familiarity with the Cubs organization and the city of Chicago is unlikely to give the Cubs a significant leg up considering that Cease is a client of the Boras Corporation, and agent Scott Boras’s clients aren’t known for affording much of a hometown discount in free agency.
The Cubs haven’t spent at the top of the free agent market very often in recent years. Since signing Jon Lester and Jason Heyward in back-to-back offseasons in 2014 and ’15, the Cubs have signed just two players to deals worth $100MM or more: Yu Darvish, who was famously traded to the Padres halfway through his six-year, $126MM pact with Chicago, and Dansby Swanson. Cease will surely be seeking a contract worth at least that much, and it’s unclear if the Cubs would be willing to go out of their comfort zone to land him.
Another factor could be the Qualifying Offer, as the Cubs have generally been reluctant to sign qualified free agents. Swanson is the only free agent Chicago has signed with a QO attached outside of re-signing their own players since they signed John Lackey to a two-year deal in December of 2015. Even if the Cubs aren’t interested in playing at the top of the market, it’s at least possible that they would circle back to Cease later this offseason if his market doesn’t materialize, as they did with Cody Bellinger during the 2023-24 offseason and attempted to do with Alex Bregman last winter.
It’s also worth wondering whether adding a starting pitcher will be the team’s top priority this winter to begin with. Whether they pursue a reunion with Tucker or not, targeting a bat in free agency could make some sense given that the club’s internal options to replace him in the lineup would be unproven prospects Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara. The bullpen might also be a priority given that every high leverage reliever from this year’s relief corps except Daniel Palencia is scheduled to hit free agency this winter.
Of course, starting pitching could become a larger priority for the club in a hurry depending on how the option decisions between the club and southpaw Shota Imanaga play out in the coming days. Imanaga departing for free agency would create some urgency to replace him in the rotation, while him remaining in the fold alongside Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton with Justin Steele expected back from surgery in the first half of next season could be enough rotation talent to convince the Cubs to prioritize improving other areas of the roster. Colin Rea‘s bargain $6MM club option for 2025 is likely to be picked up, and he’ll join Javier Assad as quality depth for the Cubs rotation headed into next year beyond their on-paper starting five.
Mariners Aiming For Roughly $166MM In “Starting Point” Payroll In 2026
The Mariners finished the 2025 season with a payroll within the range of around $165.2MM (as per calculations from Cot’s Baseball Contracts) to $166.2MM (according to RosterResource). Either of these projections stand as the largest payroll figure in franchise history, topping the roughly $161.8MM that Cot’s estimated as Seattle’s season-ending budget for its 40-man roster in 2018.
It looks like the club will keep spending at at least this higher level in 2026, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude and other reporters at the season wrap-up press conference on Thursday. When asked what the Mariners’ payroll would be for next season, Dipoto said “I would say similar to where we ended the year, as a starting point,” with the potential to boost spending during the season for trade deadline additions.
This is exactly what the M’s did at this past deadline, landing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez in separate trades with the Diamondbacks and also bringing in left-hander Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates. These swaps added roughly $9.5MM to Seattle’s payroll but the money was clearly worth it. Naylor went nuclear during the remainder of the regular season and through the playoffs, Ferguson pitched well in the regular season, and Suarez was a little more inconsistent but had some big postseason moments (like his two homers in Game 5 of the ALCS).
The deadline spending was a notable step forward for a team that has largely kept its spending in check for the last two offseasons, owing largely to uncertainty over TV broadcasting rights. Dipoto has long maintained that ownership would increase payroll as the team got deeper into regular contention, and while this wasn’t exactly the case following the Mariners’ playoff appearance in 2022, upper management did indeed step forward to approve a larger budget this summer.
“This was always the goal, to methodically build toward what we were doing,” Dipoto said. “And I’m comfortable that the resources that we’re given, we’re going to have every ability to go out and put together a championship-quality team. And like we have in recent years, when we get into the right position, I’m certain that we will be aggressive in doing the next thing.”
In terms of money on the Mariners’ books for 2026, RosterResource projects the team at slightly under $132MM in payroll, and Cot’s with a slightly higher total of roughly $132.4MM. This would seemingly leave about $34MM in payroll capacity for Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander to work with this winter, and of course some more money could be freed up by non-tenders or trades.
Dipoto has stated multiple times that the M’s would love to re-sign Naylor in free agency, so assuming that happens, Naylor alone will take up a significant portion of available payroll space. With Naylor as the stated top priority, the perception is that Suarez likely won’t be retained, while Jorge Polanco (who is expected to reject his player option and re-enter free agency) is a bit more of a 50-50 proposition. Chances are that Seattle will focus its energies on Naylor first and then turn to Polanco, or potentially to other first base options should Naylor sign elsewhere.
As always, expect plenty of trade speculation about the possibility of the Mariners trading from their rotation depth. The cost of keeping the starting five together is on the rise, as Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are due significant arbitration raises and Bryce Miller is now arb-eligible for the first time. Dipoto wasn’t as adamant about not trading starting pitching as he was last winter, but it is fair to assume that it would take a huge offer to get the M’s to even consider moving any of their top five starters.
Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
The Yankees had another good season in 2025, but with the Yankees, good isn't good enough. Going into 2026, they will undoubtedly be looking to reload as they continue trying to take advantage of having a superhuman Aaron Judge on the roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Aaron Judge, OF: $240MM through 2031
- Max Fried, LHP: $196MM through 2032 (includes $10MM to be paid in January of 2026, half of $20MM signing bonus)
- Gerrit Cole, RHP: $108MM through 2028
- Carlos Rodón, LHP: $81MM through 2028
- Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $64MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout on $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins covering $30MM of remaining guarantee as part of trade)
- Ryan McMahon, 3B: $32MM through 2027
Other Financial Commitments
- Owe $15MM to released IF DJ LeMahieu
- Owe $1MM option buyout to released OF Aaron Hicks
Option Decisions
- Cody Bellinger, OF: will opt out of one-year, $25MM, taking $5MM buyout
- Club has $5MM option on RHP Jonathan Loáisiga with no buyout
- Club has $3MM club option on LHP Tim Hill with $350K buyout
2026 guarantees, assuming Hill's option is picked up: $184MM
Total future commitments: $715MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (5.075): $10.2MM
- David Bednar (5.073): $9MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (5.031): $3MM
- Clarke Schmidt (4.148): $4.9MM
- Camilo Doval (4.071): $6.6MM
- Jake Cousins (3.091): $841K
- Ian Hamilton (3.081): $941K
- Luis Gil (3.073): $2.1MM
- Scott Effross (3.063): $800K
- Jake Bird (3.051): $1MM
- Oswaldo Cabrera (3.050): $1.2MM
- Fernando Cruz (3.035): $1.3MM
- Anthony Volpe (3.000): $3.9MM
- José Caballero (2.170): $1.9MM
Non-tender candidates: Leiter, Schmidt, Doval, Cousins, Hamilton, Effross, Bird, Cabrera
Free Agents
- Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, Trent Grisham, Luke Weaver, Amed Rosario, Ryan Yarbrough, Austin Slater, Paul Blackburn
The Yankees haven't had a losing season since 1992. They have missed the playoffs just five times in the past 31 years. But the expectations in the Bronx are higher than that. It's now been more than 15 years since the last parade.
There's always pressure for the Yankees to compete but that title drought should create extra urgency. There's also the ticking clock on Judge. He is still producing at an incredible level. Despite missing some time this year, FanGraphs credited him with 10.1 wins above replacement. But he can't keep that up forever and will turn 34 in April. Key contributors like Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are also in their 30s, adding to the sense that winning needs to come sooner than later.
A lot of good things still happened in 2025. In spring training, the club lost Cole to Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil to a lat strain. Despite losing two rotation building blocks, the team dominated early. They were 35-22 through the end of May, giving them a 5.5 game lead in the American League East. But a summer swoon took some wind out of the sails, allowing the Blue Jays to take over the top spot in the East. Those two clubs kept battling and ended up with the same record, though the Jays were given the nod via tiebreaker. They would then face off head-to-head in the ALDS, with the Jays emerging victorious.
Going into 2026, there is still a lot of talent on the Yankee roster, though there are questions. The rotation should be strong in the long run, though that's assuming improved health relative to now. There is certainly work to do in the outfield and bullpen, and maybe the infield too. There's also the question of how much the club can throw its weight around financially.
Historically, the Yankees have often been the biggest-spending club in the league. In 2025, they were third, according to RosterResource. The Yanks were at $294MM, well behind the Dodgers and Mets, and just barely ahead of the Phillies. Owner Hal Steinbrenner seems to feel that he shouldn't have to spend much more than $300MM, per Greg Joyce of The New York Post. The 2026 payroll is currently slated for $227MM, per RR. That gives the Yanks some breathing room even if they are going to be capped around $300MM, though that kind of powder can get used up pretty quickly when filling a roster with some notable holes. Is there enough pressure to push Steinbrenner beyond his comfort zone?
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Nationals Interview Brandon Hyde, Craig Albernaz
2:47PM: The Nationals also conducted interviews with both Cairo and Guardians associate manager Craig Albernaz within the last week, the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reports. Albernaz has been a candidate for managerial vacancies with the Giants, Guardians, White Sox, and Marlins over the last two years, and was a finalist for both the Chicago and Miami jobs.
Albernaz worked as Cleveland’s bench coach in 2024 before moving into his current job title this season. Before arriving in Cleveland, Albernaz spent four years on the Giants’ staff as a bullpen/catching coach, and four seasons in various roles in the Rays’ minor league system (including two managerial stints).
2:24PM: Brandon Hyde has interviewed with the Nationals about the team’s managerial vacancy, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Hyde becomes the first known candidate for the manager’s job, as Washington’s first order of business was its search for new front office boss.
Paul Toboni has now had a month as president of baseball operations. The Nats haven’t formally ruled out retaining interim manager Miguel Cairo, but it appears likelier that Toboni will want to hire his own replacement. He’s already begun reshaping the front office, including tabbing Justin Horowitz as an assistant general manager on Friday afternoon.
Hyde is plenty familiar with the Beltway after managing in Baltimore for parts of seven seasons. The O’s won 46.1% of games during Hyde’s tenure, though that’s largely weighed down by the full rebuild in which they were mired for the first three years. Hyde led the O’s to three consecutive winning seasons, including playoff berths in 2023 and ’24. Baltimore didn’t find any playoff success in either of those years but went into this season expecting to compete in the AL East.
A terrible start tanked those plans by April. The O’s were 15-28 when they fired Hyde on May 17. Baltimore played roughly .500 ball the rest of the way under Tony Mansolino. Hyde has been clear that he hopes to find another managerial opportunity. He was very loosely tied to the Giants’ and Angels’ searches that respectively landed on Tony Vitello and Kurt Suzuki. It’s not clear if Hyde ever interviewed for either position, though Heyman writes that he has had interviews beyond the sit-down with Washington.
Jason Varitek To Return To Red Sox Coaching Staff
The Red Sox and Jason Varitek are in the final stages of a new multi-year contract for the 53-year-old to return to the team’s coaching staff, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports. The official announcement “is expected soon,” McAdam writes, and chances are the two sides may just be waiting until either the end of the World Series or until an off-day. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that Varitek has agreed to a new deal.
Varitek has been part of Boston’s coaching staff in each of the last five seasons, all as a game-planning coordinator. He was also a catching coach from 2021-24, but his job title was switched to game-planning and run prevention coach prior to this season. It isn’t known if he’ll return to that job or if Varitek might have some different responsibilities in 2026, but whatever the capacity, he’ll be back as a trusted member of Alex Cora’s staff.
Most coaches generally operate on year-to-year contracts, but Varitek’s previous deal was a three-year pact covering the 2023-25 seasons. McAdam speculates that Varitek’s forthcoming contract could be a two-year deal, in order to line Varitek up with Cora (whose contract is up after the 2027 campaign).
Acquired from the Mariners in a trade at the 1997 deadline, Varitek spent his entire 15-season playing career in a Red Sox uniform, and he has remained with the organization since he retired from on-field action. He worked as a special assistant within the front office before also taking on a roving catching instructor role in 2020, prior to his formal designation as part of the big league coaching staff in 2021.
Angels Outright Four Players
October 25: Kieboom has also elected free agency, as per his MLB.com profile page.
October 23: Brogdon and Fulmer have cleared waivers and elected free agency, according to a team announcement.
October 22: The Angels removed a pair of infielders from their roster today, the team announced. Carter Kieboom and Logan Davidson both cleared waivers, and the Angels sent them outright to Triple-A Salt Lake. This was the first career outright for Davidson, who therefore had no choice but to accept the assignment. Kieboom, however, was outrighted by the Nationals in March 2024. So, he had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, a right he quickly exercised.
According to the transaction tracker on MLB.com, the Angels have also outrighted right-handers Connor Brogdon and Carson Fulmer (h/t to Ethan Hullihen on X). However, neither player was mentioned in the team’s announcement today. Both Brogdon and Fulmer have the necessary service time to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, and the team may be simply waiting on Brogdon and Fulmer to formally make that decision – a decision they are both all but certain to make, presuming they have indeed been removed from the 40-man roster.
Kieboom, 28, was once a highly-touted prospect in the Nationals organization. Yet, he just couldn’t translate all that potential into big league success. All told, he played 133 games for Washington from 2019-23, batting .199 with a .598 OPS. He struck out 138 times and ground into 17 double plays in 508 trips to the plate. His -2.0 FanGraphs WAR might be overstating just how much he struggled with the Nationals – he was somehow worth -0.6 fWAR in just 11 games in 2019 – but with those numbers, and his frequent injuries, it was hardly surprising to see him outrighted before the 2024 campaign.
After slashing .265/.365/.386 (103 wRC+) in 91 games at Triple-A that year, Kieboom elected free agency and signed a minor league pact with the Angels last December. He put up very similar numbers with the Salt Lake Bees for most of 2025, until the major league club selected his contract in mid-September. Playing first base for the first time in his MLB career, he appeared in three games for L.A., going 2-for-8 with one RBI. Now a free agent once again, he will presumably look to sign a new minor league deal and try to earn a more substantial big league opportunity in 2026.
Davidson, 27, made his MLB debut earlier this year with the Athletics. He was the A’s first-round pick in 2019, but a fall down the defensive spectrum and continued struggles with the strikeout caused his prospect shine to fade. He played in nine games for the Athletics in May and June before he was optioned, and about a month later, he was designated for assignment. The Astros claimed him off waivers, but a .681 OPS with Triple-A Sugar Land led to another DFA in September. That’s when the Angels swooped in. Davidson went 4-for-22 in 10 games with L.A. until he was optioned once again toward the end of the season. He will stick around in the organization for now and hope to earn his way back to the big league roster.
Poll: Are The Mets Likelier To Re-Sign Pete Alonso Or Edwin Diaz?
Coming off an epic collapse and a non-playoff season, there are plenty of questions facing the Mets heading into the offseason. As the club explores ways to get better, however, they face a couple of big decisions just in regards to keeping two long-time roster staples in first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz. Alonso has already said he will be declining his $24MM player option for 2026 in order to re-enter free agency, and Diaz is widely expected to test the market as well by declining his player options for the 2026-27 seasons (as per the terms of Diaz’s deal, he must exercise or decline both options at once).
Many Mets fans will make the point that the club could or should just re-sign both players. Money isn’t really an object for a team that has boasted record payrolls under Steve Cohen’s ownership, and Alonso and Diaz are each coming off big seasons. For all of the Mets’ issues in 2025, Alonso and Diaz weren’t part of the problem — Alonso hit .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs over 709 plate appearances, and Diaz recorded 28 saves while posting a 1.63 ERA and 38% strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings.
Retaining either player, of course, comes with a few concerns. The Mets and Alonso just went through this free agent dance last winter, as after a lack of interest from other suitors and a protracted series of negotiations with New York’s front office, Alonso settled for a two-year, $54MM deal with an opt-out clause after the first season. Alonso’s goal of entering the market with a better platform season came to fruition, and he also won’t have the qualifying offer attached to his services this time, for any clubs concerned over giving up draft picks to sign him.
While Alonso’s numbers were decidedly better in 2025 than in 2024, the question of whether or not Alonso was still a top-tier bat wasn’t really one of the chief concerns facing the Mets or other free agent suitors last offseason. Alonso is a right-handed hitting first base-only player, and the market simply hasn’t been too welcoming to such players in recent years, no matter how much pop is in their bats. Speaking of defense, Alonso’s subpar glovework has him pointed towards a future as a DH, so any team signing the slugger will face the immediate question over how much longer they’re willing to deploy him at first base. If Alonso projects as a one-dimensional player going forward, the fact that he’s entering his age-31 season means that he is one year closer to the end of his prime.
One plus in Alonso’s favor is his extreme durability. Diaz is entering his age-32 season, and his health record includes a 2023 season entirely lost due to knee surgery, and a (minimal) stint on the 15-day injured list in 2024 due to a shoulder impingement. While Diaz isn’t showing any signs of slowing down on the mound, there are also the natural concerns present when considering any bullpen arm for a long-term contract, given how inconsistent most relievers can be on a year-to-year basis.
Diaz’s knee injury obviously hadn’t happened at the time of his last foray into free agency, but larger concerns over his future performance didn’t weigh too heavily on the Mets’ minds in 2022 when the team quickly re-signed the righty to his five-year, $102MM deal soon after the free agent market opened. Cohen was naturally the one making the final call on Diaz’s new contract, though it is worth noting that Billy Eppler was New York’s general manager at the time of that signing.
Current president of baseball operations David Stearns may well have a different view of Diaz’s value, which is why MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo feels that if the Mets only keep one of the two star free agents, “Alonso has a better chance of staying.” Stearns has traditionally preferred to build his bullpens with relievers on shorter-term commitments, both when he was running the Brewers’ front office (and focusing more on inexpensive hidden-gem types) and during his two years in Queens (when working with a much larger payroll).
DiComo also observed that “just about everyone needs relief pitching,” so while perhaps only a few teams may be able to meet Diaz’s expected price tag, “Díaz is also likely to have at least as many suitors as Alonso.” Diaz’s age is a factor in another sense here, as SNY’s Andy Martino points out that Diaz may view this trip to free agency as his “last bite at the apple at getting a huge contract.” Despite the mutual interest between Diaz and the Mets in a reunion, he might not be able to resist taking the larger offer if a closer-needy team outbids the Mets in years.
Could it be possible that both Alonso and Diaz have played their last game in a Mets uniform? This seems like perhaps the least-likely scenario, as then the Mets would have to add both first base and closer to an offseason shopping list that is already headlined by a severe need for starting pitching. Technically, letting both Alonso and Diaz walk would free up more payroll room for the Amazins to splurge on rotation help, or for the club to pursue other quality first base or high-leverage relief that would come at lower price tags. But, “payroll room” is probably not a big deal to a club with a more or less endless budget. And, letting two fan favorites go in the same offseason might not appeal to a Mets fanbase that is already upset over the disappointment of 2025.
What do you think will happen with the Mets and these two big free agent decisions? Vote now in our poll.
Are the Mets likelier to re-sign Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz?
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Re-sign Diaz 39% (2,213)
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Re-sign both 26% (1,477)
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Both will sign elsewhere 19% (1,064)
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Re-sign Alonso 15% (867)
Total votes: 5,621
Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates took a step back in 2025 and fired manager Derek Shelton early in the season. He was replaced by his bench coach, Don Kelly, who'll take over in the dugout into 2026 and beyond. General manager Ben Cherington's job status prompted plenty of speculation, but he'll be back for 2026 as well. Can the Pirates finally turn things around?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Bryan Reynolds, OF: $76MM through 2030 (including buyout of 2031 club option)
- Mitch Keller, RHP: $54.5MM through 2028
Total 2026 commitments: $30.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $130.5MM through 2030
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dennis Santana (5.126): $3.4MM
- Johan Oviedo (4.078): $2MM
- Joey Bart (4.020): $2.7MM
- Justin Lawrence (3.167): $1.2MM
- Yohan Ramirez (3.135): $1.2MM
- Colin Holderman (3.120): $1.7MM
- Oneil Cruz (3.110): $3.6MM
- Dauri Moreta (3.056): $800K
- Jack Suwinski (2.170): $1.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Holderman, Ramirez, Suwinski, Moreta
Free Agents
The Pirates have drawn increasing levels of praise for their excellent core of young pitching, headlined by likely NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, but the team's collection of bats is miles behind its impressive stable of arms. Anemic offense proved to be Pittsburgh's downfall yet again in 2025. The Pirates scored just 583 runs -- last in the majors and nearly 300 fewer than the MLB-leading Yankees' mark of 849. Pittsburgh hitters connected on just 117 homers -- a whopping 31 long balls behind the 29th-ranked Cardinals. The Pirates' lineup ranked 28th in batting average, 23rd in OBP and dead last in slugging percentage.
Addressing such widespread offensive deficiency isn't an easy task. Cherington's job security was the source of considerable speculation late in the year. He'll be back for 2026, but with Shelton out the door and owner Bob Nutting calling for "urgency" -- a rich declaration from an owner who hasn't signed a free agent to a multi-year deal in a decade -- there's mounting pressure for the sixth-year Pittsburgh GM to bolster the lineup in support of a strong pitching staff.
Even coming off a last-place finish, the Pirates seem far likelier to add to the roster than subtract. That doesn't mean there won't be some veteran Buccos available via trade -- there very likely will be -- but such trades will be aimed at acquiring young, MLB-ready hitters who can augment a lineup that's badly in need of an overhaul. Let's run through the roster and some possibilities.
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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Starting Pitcher
MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve gone through each offensive position and now turn to the starting rotation. For this exercise, we’re focused on pitchers who spent most of this past season working as a starter. Some relievers (e.g. Luke Weaver, Steven Matz, Sean Newcomb) could also receive rotation interest. They’ll be covered in the respective reliever previews. Player ages, listed in parentheses, are for the 2026 season.
Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield, designated hitter, right-handed relief
Top Group
- Dylan Cease (30)
Cease may be the biggest wild card of the free agent class. He entered the season as the presumptive top pitcher. A repeat of his fourth-place Cy Young season from 2024 would’ve positioned him for a $225-250MM contract. He instead had an uneven platform season, finishing with a 4.55 earned run average across 168 innings. His past four seasons have alternated between top five Cy Young finishes (2022, ’24) and years with an ERA closer to 5.00 than to 4.00 (2023, ’25).
The positives are obvious. Cease has not missed a start in four years. He’s eighth in MLB in innings going back to the start of 2022. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff headlined by a fastball that sits above 97 MPH. It’s the seventh-highest average fastball speed among starters. This year’s 29.8% strikeout rate was right in line with the swing-and-miss numbers he posted during his ace-caliber seasons. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Tarik Skubal had a higher swinging strike rate.
All that said, Cease’s camp is going to have an uphill battle pushing for a $200MM+ contract for a pitcher coming off a second mediocre ERA in three years. The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola for seven years and $172MM coming off a 4.46 ERA a few years back, but Nola was a more reliable source of innings. Cease has been durable but is generally inefficient and only averaged 5.25 innings per start this year. He didn’t work beyond six frames after June 21.
The Padres will issue Cease a qualifying offer, which he’s a lock to decline. If a $200MM offer doesn’t materialize, it’d make sense for him to look for a two- or three-year guarantee that allows him to opt out and give free agency another go next winter. It’s tough to see him splitting the difference and accepting a four- or five-year deal without opt-outs that pays him like a #3/4 starter.
- Tatsuya Imai (28)*
Imai, who is likely to be posted by NPB’s Seibu Lions, is the best foreign pitcher in this year’s class. He might command the top contract of any pitcher. The 5’11” hurler won’t turn 28 until May, making him the youngest free agent pitcher of note. He has posted ace-caliber numbers in consecutive seasons. Imai turned in a 2.34 ERA last year and posted a 1.92 mark across 163 2/3 innings this past season. He ranked second in NPB with 178 strikeouts and led the league (minimum 100 innings) with a 27.8% strikeout rate.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in September that contract estimates from people with whom he spoke ranged from $80MM to over $200MM. Imai isn’t the slam dunk ace that Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he commanded $325MM from the Dodgers. He’s younger and throws a lot harder than Shota Imanaga did when he signed a four-year, $53MM guarantee.
Teams are going to have different evaluations on his stuff and some clubs might feel there’s a risk that his command projects him to relief. Imai has improved his control each season and is coming off a solid 7% walk rate, but he’d issued free passes to more than 9% of opponents in every year before this one. Whatever team wins the bidding will be one that views Imai as a slam dunk starter, though, and he’s likely to be paid as a #3 arm who is in the prime of his career.
- Ranger Suárez (30)
Suárez has been a steady #2/3 starter for the Phillies over the past four seasons. He’s coming off arguably the best year of his career. He turned in a 3.20 ERA over a personal-high 157 1/3 innings. Suárez fanned a solid 23.2% of opponents against an excellent 5.8% walk rate. He reliably gets weak contact and has gotten ground-balls at a 51% clip since the start of 2022.
The lefty doesn’t have the kind of power stuff that tends to get paid highly. He hasn’t reached a league average swinging strike rate in any of the last four years. His sinker has averaged between 90-91 MPH in each of the past two seasons. The multi-year track record should support a nine-figure deal spanning five or six years. Suárez will reject a qualifying offer and be attached to draft compensation.
- Framber Valdez (32)
Valdez is now the top domestic free agent starter in the class. The southpaw is coming off his sixth consecutive sub-4.00 ERA season. He hasn’t gone on the injured list in four seasons. Valdez has slightly above-average strikeout stuff, but his standout skill is an elite ground-ball rate. He sits in the 95-96 MPH range with his heater, so he’s hardly a soft-tossing grounder specialist. There are clear parallels to Max Fried, who commanded an eight-year and $218MM deal last winter.
Valdez isn’t going to get that long of a contract. There hasn’t been a six-year deal for a 32-year-old free agent starting pitcher in a decade. Valdez would have had a better case to snap that precedent had he finished the season well. He ended with a 6.05 ERA over his final 10 starts. Valdez was also at the center of controversy when he didn’t appear to show much concern after a cross-up that led him to drill catcher César Salazar in the chest. The Astros downplayed that publicly, but he could face some questions about the situation from interested teams.
That’s unlikely to stop him from commanding a five-year contract that pays between $25-30MM annually. He’ll cost a team a draft choice after he declines a qualifying offer. Extension talks with the Astros never gained traction and he’s expected to sign elsewhere.
Second Tier
- Shane Bieber (31)
Bieber is technically weighing a $16MM player option versus a $4MM buyout. It’s an obvious decision for him to opt out. The former Cy Young winner signed a two-year deal to return to Cleveland when he was halfway through rehab from April 2024 Tommy John surgery. The recovery went mostly as expected. He had a brief setback in June when he was scratched from a rehab start with elbow soreness. That prevented him from returning to an MLB mound before the trade deadline, but he was back on a rehab assignment by July.
The Blue Jays were encouraged enough by his form to give up a legitimate pitching prospect, Khal Stephen, to acquire him. It paid off, as Bieber turned in a 3.57 ERA over seven regular season starts. He averaged nearly six innings per start while striking out 23.3% of opponents against an excellent 4.4% walk rate. He has taken the ball three times in the postseason, allowing seven runs (six earned) over 12 1/3 frames. His 15:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio is excellent, but he has given up a home run in each of his past two starts. He’ll make at least one and potentially two starts during the World Series.
Bieber is unlikely to return to the Cy Young heights he reached in 2020, but he looks like a high-end #3 arm. While the ill-timed surgery has prevented him from racking up many innings over the past two seasons, some teams will probably view that at as a standalone injury which is now behind him. He will hit free agency without draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
- Zac Gallen (30)
Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures. The Diamondbacks are expected to make him a qualifying offer.
- Lucas Giolito (30)
Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.
A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.
Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. He’s a borderline QO candidate.
- Michael King (31)
King will decline his end of a $15MM mutual option with the Padres. He’ll be paid a $3.75MM buyout and become a free agent. A few months ago, he looked like he’d find a nine-figure deal. That’s tougher to envision after injuries interrupted what had been an excellent start to his walk year.
The righty began his season with a 2.59 ERA while striking out 28% of opponents through his first 10 starts. He went on the injured list at the end of May with what the team initially viewed as a minor shoulder injury. That turned out to be far more of a hindrance than expected. It turned out to be a nerve issue that cost him three months. He came back in mid-August, started one game, then went back on the injured list with left knee inflammation. King returned a few weeks later and made four starts in September but was nowhere near as effective as he’d been early in the year. He didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of those appearances and gave up 10 runs in 15 2/3 innings.
King was healthy enough for the Padres to carry him on their playoff roster. The team clearly didn’t trust him, though, as they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start a must-win Game 3 of their Wild Card Series while keeping King in the bullpen. Darvish gave up two runs in one inning to take the loss. King tossed a scoreless inning of relief, striking out three of four batters in his only playoff action. It now remains to be seen if teams are willing to chance a four- or five-year contract on a pitcher who looked like a high-end #2 starter a few months ago. A two-year deal with an opt-out isn’t out of the question.
- Brandon Woodruff (33)
On talent alone, Woodruff belongs in the first tier. Teams that are only concerned with chasing short-term upside could have him alongside Valdez as the two best pitchers in the class. Woodruff isn’t going to command the same long-term contract because of his age and durability questions.
Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. His 93 MPH average fastball is down nearly three ticks from his pre-surgery level, which is an obvious concern, but that didn’t prevent him from dominating before the lat strain. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters and Woodruff has that kind of ceiling.
The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.
Rays Promote Hamilton Marx To Assistant GM
The Rays promoted Hamilton Marx to assistant general manager, writes Adam Berry of MLB.com. Marx is entering his 12th season in the organization and spent this past season as the club’s vice president of baseball process/strategy. He’d previously held the title of director of baseball operations.
Marx, 39, assumes the AGM role vacated when Carlos Rodriguez stepped down earlier this month. Rodriguez had previously run the team’s international scouting department. Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times writes that Marx, who has a scouting background, will now be in charge of both the domestic and international amateur scouting operations. That’s on top of his previous responsibilities, which included arbitration and contract work.
The Rays have had four assistant GMs for the last two seasons. Marx joins Chanda Lawdermilk, Will Cousins and Kevin Ibach in that role. The Rays have a number of assistant GMs without actually having a general manager. They never filled that position after Peter Bendix departed to become president of baseball operations in Miami. The Rays’ front office is led by baseball ops president Erik Neander, who’ll continue in the role he has had for a decade under new owner Patrick Zalupski.