Royals Evaluating Outfield Trade Market
The General Managers Meetings are taking place in Las Vegas this week, a setting where teams often start conversations on possible transactions to be made later in the offseason. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Royals are evaluating the outfield trade market.
It’s a logical target for the club. The outfield in Kansas City has been a weak spot for years. 2025 was no exception. The team’s outfielders had a collective .225/.285/.348 batting line this year. That resulted in a 73 wRC+, indicating the club’s outfield group was 27% worse than league average. That was easily the worst mark in the majors, with the Guardians’ jardineros second-last with a wRC+ of 77.
The current group in Kansas City includes Jac Caglianone, Kyle Isbel, John Rave, Dairon Blanco, MJ Melendez, Kameron Misner, Drew Waters and others. Caglianone came into 2025 as a top prospect but struggled badly in his first major league call-up. No one else in the group has any real track record of big league success either.
Upgrading there is an obvious way to improve the club overall. The trade market also makes sense as a way to go about doing it, considering the club’s finances. About a month ago, owner John Sherman said that he expects the 2026 club to have a fairly similar payroll to 2025. RosterResource currently estimates the Royals for a payroll of about $140MM next year. That’s slightly higher than the $138MM RR pegged their spending at the end of 2025.
That doesn’t suggest the front office will have a huge amount of spending capacity. They could lower their commitments by non-tendering some of their arb-eligible players. Jonathan India has the highest projected salary in the Royals’ class at $7.4MM and he’s coming off a poor season. The club could also perhaps trade Kris Bubic and his projected $6MM salary since the rotation could still be in decent shape without him.
Even if the club does pinch a few pennies, they’re not going to suddenly become favorites for a big free agent like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. Re-signing Mike Yastrzemski is feasible but it’s understandable that president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo would check to see what’s available on the trade market.
Morosi mentions the Red Sox and Angels as possible trading partners. Those seem like speculative picks but they make sense. The Angels have a question in center field but have a crowded mix in the corners. Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler give them four options for three spots, between the two outfield corners and the designated hitter slot. Trout isn’t going anywhere and Soler has negative trade value at the moment, since he is owed $13MM next year and is coming off a down season.
Trading one of Adell or Ward seems like the move for the Angels, as that could clear up the logjam while potentially adding some much-needed pitching help. MLBTR put both of them on our recent list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates for this offseason. Last week, Morosi reported that the Halos would indeed listen on Ward and Adell.
Ward has the better track record. He has essentially been a 20-plus homer guy for four years now. He only got to 14 long balls in 2023 but was limited by injuries to just 97 games. He just hit 36 homers in 2025 with a strong 11.3% walk rate to boot. Reviews on his defense are mixed. He’s been credited with seven Outs Above Average in his career but minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved.
Adell got many chances with the Angels and didn’t take advantage of most of them but he has shown some promise lately. He did 20 homers in 2024 and 37 this year. His walk and strikeout rates are poor, limiting the overall value of his offense, but he was still a decent contributor in 2025. His .236/.293/.485 line translated to a 112 wRC+. His defensive grades were poor in center but more passable in right.
Though Ward has the longer résumé, the trade value might be comparable. Ward is just one year from free agency and is projected for a salary of $13.7MM next year. Adell, meanwhile, is projected for just $5.5MM and can be controlled through 2027.
The Red Sox have a well-known glut of outfield options which currently includes Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon García. Anthony signed a big extension with the club and isn’t going anywhere. That’s likely also the case for Rafaela, who also signed an extension and is an elite glove in center. García isn’t yet proven at the major league level but is optionable and swings from the right side, a potential asset in a lefty-heavy lineup.
Duran and Abreu are fairly redundant as lefty-swinging corner guys. Both cracked the aforementioned MLBTR list of Top 40 Trade Candidates for this winter. Duran has more big league experience and has shown a higher ceiling but he’s down to three years of club control and will make $7.7MM in 2026. Abreu, on the other hand, hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and still has four seasons of club control remaining.
Both the Angels and Red Sox plan to compete in 2026. If either club were to trade an outfielder, they would likely be looking for a return that would help the big league club, as opposed to prospects. Both clubs could use pitching, which is something the Royals have. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently took a look at the club’s rotation depth and the possibility that the club could leverage that into an offensive upgrade.
The offseason is still young, so there are still many possible paths for the Royals to take. In addition to the Angels and Red Sox, clubs like the Cardinals, Twins, Diamondbacks and others could have outfielders available, while signing Yastrzemski or someone similar is possible as well.
Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images
Mariners, Randy Dobnak Agree To Minor League Deal
The Mariners and right-hander Randy Dobnak have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The righty is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.
Dobnak, 31 in January, just got to the end of an early-career extension that didn’t really pan out. Once an undrafted free agent who was playing indy ball and driving an Uber, he landed with the Twins and climbed all the way up to the majors. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he tossed 75 innings for Minnesota, allowing 3.12 earned runs per nine. His 15.7% strikeout rate was pretty low but he posted a 5.7% walk rate and also got grounders at a high rate of 58.8%.
At the start of the 2021 season, the Twins and Dobnak agreed to a five-year, $9.25MM extension. From the team perspective, that was a tiny amount of money, even for a lower-spending club like the Twins. But for Dobnak, considering his humble origins, that was massive.
Unfortunately, it didn’t really work out for the club. Dobnak’s ERA shot up to 7.64 in 2021. He has largely been kept in the minors since then. He didn’t pitch in the big leagues at all in 2022 or 2023, followed by just five appearances last year and one in 2025. The Twins shipped him to the Tigers at the deadline as part of the Chris Paddack trade, seemingly just to get the remainder of the money owed to Dobnak off their books. The Tigers kept him in the minors and then declined a club option for 2026, giving Dobnak a $1MM buyout instead.
For the Mariners, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal, giving them some non-roster pitching depth. Dobnak’s recent minor league work hasn’t been great but he has continued to get grounders on roughly half the balls in play he’s allowed. If he’s added to the 40-man roster at any point, he’s still optionable. That’s because the Twins usually outrighted him completely off the 40-man roster, as opposed to just optioning him to the minors.
Photo courtesy of Tim Vizer, Imagn Images
Royals Acquire Mason Black
The Royals announced that they have acquired right-hander Mason Black from the Giants. Minor league righty Logan Martin heads in the other direction. The Giants designated Black for assignment last week. The Royals’ 40-man roster count climbs from 36 to 37.
Black, 26 next month, joins a new organization for the first time in his career. The Giants took him with a third-round pick in 2021. As he climbed the minor league ladder, he was generally regarded as one of the club’s top ten prospects.
He hasn’t yet delivered much at the big league level. Between 2024 and 2025, he tossed 40 1/3 innings for the Giants, allowing 6.47 earned runs per nine. His 8% walk rate in that time was around average but his 19.1% strikeout rate subpar.
His work in the minors has been better but he’s coming off a poor season. From 2022 to 2024, he logged 320 minor league frames with a 3.77 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. In 2025, he pitched 119 1/3 Triple-A innings but with a 5.81 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He struck out 21.5% of opponents and walked them at an 11.7% pace. That got him bumped off San Francisco’s roster but Kansas City will take a shot on him.
Black still has one option season remaining, so the Royals don’t need keep him on the big league roster. He could be kept in Triple-A Omaha as rotation depth. It’s also possible they experiment with him in a relief role. Black has mostly been a starter in his career but his final five appearances in 2025 were out of the bullpen for Triple-A Sacramento. In those, he faced 25 batters, striking out six while giving out two walks.
To get Black aboard, the Royals are parting with Martin. He was their 12th-round pick in 2023. Last year, he tossed 102 innings at the Single-A level with a 3.62 ERA, 22.9% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. This year, he moved up to High-A and logged 91 1/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He has been pitching in the Arizona Fall League of late, though with 12 earned runs allowed in 11 innings. Back in May, Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs gave Martin an honorable mention on their list of the top prospects in the Royals system.
Martin is a bit of a lottery ticket since he hasn’t yet reached Double-A but the Giants are surely happy to get any kind of chance at a return for a player they designated for assignment. Martin will be Rule 5 eligible a year from now, so the Giants can use that time to decide if he’s worth a roster spot. The Royals, meanwhile, weren’t going to get anything from Martin in the near term whereas Black has a chance to contribute to the big league club in 2026. The Royals presumably also hope that Black has the greater upside as a former third-round pick and notable prospect.
Photo courtesy of Dennis Lee, Imagn Images
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning — and happy offseason! Apologies for the lack of chat last week. We had a pretty big push to get the Top 50 out, finish the Offseason Outlook series, etc. We’ll get back into a rhythm with regular chats on Tuesdays again. We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you prefer.
- Good afternoon! Let’s get underway
- We published our collaborative Top 50 Free Agents and Contract Predictions last week:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-…I may differ slightly from contract to contract, but in general, most of the numbers on there are pretty closely in line with my expectations (or at the very least seem pretty plausible to me) - Quick note since many of the early questions are asking for contract predictions on prominent free agents
Hunt for Reds October
- Given the payroll is the same, how can the Reds claim they will compete in 2026? Isn’t it more of the same dumpster diving and wishing something good happens?
Steve Adams
- They nabbed a Wild Card spot in 2025 and did so in a season where they went through notable stretches without Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, Noelvi Marte and others — plus they got nothing out of Matt McLain.They have a handful of notable free agents in Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagan, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, but I think most of that group is composed of regression candidates anyhow
- All of which is to say, I don’t think they need to send payroll soaring to compete. Obviously it’d be nice if the Castellinis gave Krall & Co. an extra $20MM or so on top of last year’s budget, but they’ve got some wiggle room right now as it is, especially if they trade Brady Singer
Jays Fan
- Will the Blue Jays pursue Kyle Tucker? I’d like to see them re-sign Bichette AND bring in Tucker.
Steve Adams
- They’ll pursue him. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for a Tucker+Bichette combo, but it’s at least slightly plausible, which is more than can be said for most clubs
Jose G
- What reliever are the Dodgers going got sign?
Steve Adams
- This is a boring answer, but the Dodgers don’t even know the answer to that question yet.I expect they’ll be in on Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams and other prominent bullpen arms though.
Stevey Steve
- Steve why did Baldwin beat out Cade Horton for NL ROY? To me that is a joke. He was unbelievable in the 2nd half. His ERA over his last 14 starts was 1- something. Come on, what are we doing here?
Steve Adams
- Horton would’ve been perfectly deserving, but focusing only on his final 12 starts also ignores a good-not-great 10 starts to begin his career.Drake Baldwin was in the majors all year (Horton wasn’t) and was 25% better than average at the plate as a catcher — a position where the standard player is about 10% worse than average.
I wouldn’t begrudge anyone preferring Horton over Baldwin, but there wasn’t a cavernous gulf between them at all.
I’d also have voted for Baldwin, in full transparency. Sorry! (If Horton had been up on Opening Day and pitched like that in the majors all season, it’d be another story)
Twins Rumors: Payroll, Ryan, Coaching Staff
The Twins are expected to listen to trade offers on several of their remaining veterans after gutting the roster — particularly the bullpen — ahead of this year’s trade deadline. Right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez ranked prominently on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 40 trade candidates, as did catcher Ryan Jeffers. The extent to which the Twins further subtract from the roster will at least in part stem from ownership’s budget for next year’s payroll. To this point, the Pohlad family has not given the baseball operations department “a clear direction” on next year’s payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
RosterResource currently projects a $95MM payroll for the Twins, which is down more than $40MM from their Opening Day mark in 2025. That doesn’t include potential subtractions from the arbitration class. Trevor Larnach, projected for a $4.7MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), stands as a non-tender or trade candidate. Obviously, trades of Ryan, Lopez and/or Jeffers would further scale back spending. Lopez is earning $21.75MM in each of the next two seasons. Ryan is projected for a $5.8MM salary. Jeffers is projected to earn $6.6MM. (Center fielder Byron Buxton is guaranteed $15MM but has a full no-trade clause and has said even after the team’s summer fire sale that he won’t consider approving a trade.)
The idea of Minnesota taking that newfound payroll flexibility and reinvesting it in a series of win-now moves to complement a roster still featuring Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers and several promising young position players (Luke Keaschall perhaps chief among them) makes at least some sense on paper, but there’s little in the Pohlads’ history of owning the club to support the notion that they’d go that route. Further subtraction still seems likely, though until the Twins tip their hand with whatever the first moves of the offseason are, perhaps fans can hold out some faint hope for a quicker-than-expected turnaround.
Assuming they indeed operate more on the sell side of things, Ryan in particular will be one of the most sought-after names on the trade market. The Twins discussed the 29-year-old righty, who has two years of affordable arbitration control remaining, with several clubs ahead of the summer trade deadline. No deal came to pass, but the Red Sox are known to have had substantial discussions regarding the right-hander, while the Yankees and Mets were among the others to at least check in.
Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register adds the Angels to the list of clubs that showed interest in Joe Ryan prior to the trade deadline. With the Halos set to seek pitching upgrades again this winter, it stands to reason that they could circle back and talk with the Twins this winter. The Angels’ farm system is not well regarded, though they have a fair number of young big leaguers or nearly MLB-ready arms who could pique the Twins’ interest (e.g. George Klassen, Ryan Johnson, Nelson Rada, 2025 first-rounder Tyler Bremner).
The Angels would surely face competition in any bid for Ryan. The 2025 All-Star tossed 171 innings of 3.42 ERA ball this past season, fanning 28.2% of opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate. He sports a career 3.79 earned run average that’s skewed a bit by an outlier 4.51 mark in 2023. Ryan has virtually no platoon split in his career, with the main blemish against him being some susceptibility to home runs (particularly in that rocky ’23 campaign). Angel Stadium, notably, has been more conducive to home runs than Minneapolis’ Target Field — both over the past three seasons and in 2025, in particular.
Much of the focus in the early stages of the offseason will be in determining exactly which direction the Twins will go and — if they indeed sell more veterans — the depth of that potential teardown. Minnesota already had a relatively well-regarded farm system prior to the deadline, and the Twins now boast one of the best minor league systems in the sport. They’re not a system that’s devoid of minor league talent, so the extent to which ownership is willing to invest in the club will be especially instructive when it comes to their 2026 outlook.
Looking beyond the roster, however, there are still some short-term decisions that need to be made in the dugout. Longtime manager Rocco Baldelli was fired at season’s end and replaced by his former bench coach from 2019, Derek Shelton. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the Twins initially began their search for a manager with a speculative list running around 80 names deep. They whittled that to 15, conducted Zoom interviews with seven and held in-person interviews with Shelton, Yankees hitting coach James Rowson (another former Twins staffer) and former Mariners skipper Scott Servais.
The decision, per Nightengale, ultimately came down to Shelton or Rowson. While Shelton won the job in the end, the Twins are hopeful of hiring Rowson back to the organization as Shelton’s new bench coach, Nightengale reports. The rest of the staff is largely up in the air. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins will retain pitching coach Pete Maki, pairing him with newly hired bullpen coach LaTroy Hawkins to oversee the staff in Minnesota.
Third base coach Tommy Watkins has already departed for Atlanta, and Hayes writes that assistant bench coach/catching coach Hank Conger and quality control coach Nate Dammann have both been dismissed. Decisions have yet to be made on hitting coaches Matt Borgschulte, Trevor Amicone and Rayden Sierra.
Mets Interested In Tatsuya Imai
The Mets are interested in Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Imai has not been officially posted yet, but his team, the Saitama Seibu Lions of NPB, recently announced that they intend to do so. Martino notes that the Mets’ level of interest is not the same as it was for Yoshinobu Yamamoto two offseasons ago, implying that Imai is simply one of several arms the club is looking into.
Imai, 27, has pitched for the Lions for eight years and is a three-time NPB All-Star. After middling results in his first three seasons from 2018-20, he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts in 2021 and has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in every full season since (he only made nine starts in 2022). This year, Imai turned in a career-best effort with a 1.92 ERA in 163 2/3 innings across 24 starts. He also set a career high with a 27.8% strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate to a career-low 7.0%. His season was highlighted by a combined no-hitter on April 18, in which he pitched the first eight innings, as well as a 17-strikeout performance on June 17 that broke the club record previously set by Daisuke Matsuzaka.
The NPB requires players to have nine years of service time before they become unrestricted free agents. By allowing Imai to pursue a move to MLB one year early, the Lions will secure a posting fee based on the value of his contract. We at MLBTR project Imai for a six-year, $150MM contract and placed him seventh on our Top 50 Free Agents list. Based on that projection, any signing team would owe the Lions a $24.375MM posting fee. In terms of stuff, Imai boasts a 95-99 mph fastball as well as a slider and changeup. Based on that profile and his recent track record, he’ll be an intriguing target for clubs in need of starting pitching. That said, Martino notes that industry opinion is mixed on whether he can succeed as an MLB starter.
As for the Mets, it comes as no surprise that they would like to reinforce their rotation. The club’s starters ranked 18th in the majors with a 4.13 ERA in 2025, although they did lead the league with a 49.4% groundball rate. David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Kodai Senga led the team in innings pitched, although Senga only made 22 starts due to missing a month with a right hamstring strain and being optioned to the minors in September. Peterson was worth 3.1 fWAR this year and is projected to earn $7.6MM in arbitration, while Holmes is under contract for $13MM with a player option for 2027. Beyond those three, the rotation picture is less certain. Frankie Montas declined to opt out of his contract, but he is a candidate to be released since he will miss next season recovering from a UCL surgery in August. Sean Manaea missed most of the season with a right oblique strain and struggled upon his return. Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong all debuted in 2025 and will factor into the rotation, though owner Steve Cohen has never been shy about spending big on free agents. Signing Imai could provide stability in the rotation behind Peterson, Holmes, and Senga while easing the rookies into larger roles.
Braves Add Tony Mansolino, J.P. Martinez To Coaching Staff
Nov. 11: Mansolino will serve as the bench coach and work with the team’s infielders rather than his previously reported role of third base coach, according to David O’Brien of the Athletic. Instead, the Braves have hired Tommy Watkins to be the third base coach, per Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Watkins was a long-time Twins coach and was given permission to interview for the role with the Braves. O’Brien adds that Eddie Perez will be remaining as a major league coach for Atlanta. The club also officially announced Dustin Garneau as catching coach, Darnell Coles as assistant hitting coach, and Tony Diaz as a major league coach.
Nov. 7: The Braves on Friday announced the hiring of former Orioles interim manager Tony Mansolino as their new third base coach. He’ll take over for Fredi Gonzalez, whose departure from the staff was reported earlier in the week. Atlanta also hired former Giants pitching coach J.P. Martinez — not to be confused with the former Braves outfielder of the same name — as their new bullpen coach.
The 43-year-old Mansolino took over for O’s skipper Brandon Hyde after Baltimore dismissed him back in mid-May. He’d been Hyde’s third base coach prior to that appointment — a role he’d held dating back to the 2021 season. Mansolino was previously a hitting coach and infield coordinator in Cleveland prior to being hired in Baltimore. A 26th-round pick by the Pirates back in 2005, he played professional from 2005-10 as an infielder Pittsburgh’s system and later on the independent circuit.
Mansolino guided the O’s to a 60-59 record, but that wasn’t enough to erase a disastrous start to the season. Baltimore finished last in the AL East with a 75-87 record. He was in the running for the Orioles’ full-time managerial gig moving forward, but that job went to Guardians associate manager and bench coach Craig Albernaz.
Martinez, also 43, was San Francisco’s pitching coach in 2025 and an assistant pitching coach with the Giants from 2021-24. He broke into the coaching ranks in the low levels of the Twins’ system back in 2015. He served as a pitching coach with Minnesota’s Rookie-level and High-A affiliates before being named the organization’s overall minor league pitching coordinator in 2018 — a role he held until being hired by the Giants in the 2020-21 offseason.
The Opener: GM Meetings, Manager Of The Year Awards, MLBTR Chat
Here’s a few things to monitor around the baseball world today:
1. GM Meetings continue in Las Vegas
Baseball’s annual General Manager Meetings are this week in Las Vegas, Nevada. While they typically don’t feature as many transactions as the more well known Winter Meetings, the GM Meetings still see executives laying the groundwork for offseason trades and free agent signings. With all 30 teams as well as many player agents in attendance, there might be some interesting rumors trickling through later in the day. Among the new leaders this year are Paul DePodesta, Chaim Bloom, and Paul Toboni. Of course, all three have significant baseball experience, but DePodesta is returning to the sport as the Rockies’ president of baseball operations after spending a decade in the front office for the NFL’s Cleveland Browns. Bloom recently took over as president of baseball ops for the Cardinals, while Toboni assumed that role for the Nationals back in September.
2. Manager of the Year Awards announced tonight
Awards season continues with the Manager of the Year winners set to be announced tonight at 6 pm CT. The American League finalists are Blue Jays manager John Schneider, Mariners skipper Dan Wilson, and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, who won the award last year. Schneider took the Blue Jays from last place in 2024 to Game 7 of the World Series this year, while Wilson’s Mariners and Vogt’s Guardians both won their respective divisions, with the Guardians mounting a historic comeback to overtake the Tigers on the final day of the regular season. Meanwhile, the National League contenders are the Brewers’ Pat Murphy, the Phillies’ Rob Thomson, and the Reds’ Terry Francona. The Brewers under Murphy had the best record in the majors at 97-65 (.599), while Thomson took the Phillies to the NLDS and Francona took the Reds to the playoffs in his first year at the helm.
3. MLBTR chat today
The offseason continues with the GM meetings running through November 13, the deadline for qualifying offer acceptance coming on the 18th, and the non-tender deadline a few days later on the 21st. Whether your team is planning an active offseason or merely looking to improve the margins of their roster, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 1 pm CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Nick Kurtz Wins American League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Full Year Of Service Time
Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has been named the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. His teammate Jacob Wilson finished second and Roman Anthony of the Red Sox finished third in the voting. Kurtz, who was the unanimous choice for the award, will be retroactively awarded a full year of service time by finishing in the top two of the voting. The full voting results can be found here.
Kurtz was the fourth overall pick of the 2024 draft and came into 2025 as one of the top prospects in the league. He didn’t break camp with the club but was called up on April 23rd. Almost immediately, he started showing his talent for crushing the ball. Due to his late call-up and a brief injured list stint for a strained left hip flexor, he only got into 117 games, but that was still enough time for him to put the ball over the fence 36 times.
It wasn’t a perfect season, as Kurtz struck out at a high 30.9% rate. However, his 12.9% walk rate was quite strong. When combined with his aforementioned power, it was a very productive season. His .290/.383/.619 slash line translated to a wRC+ of 170. Among hitters with at least 20 plate appearances this year, only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani topped that wRC+ number.
It’s impressive that Kurtz did so much despite not even playing a full season. His late call-up also has notable implications for him and the club. The most recent collective bargaining agreement included measures to discourage service time manipulation. If a team promotes a top prospect early enough in a season for him to earn a full service year, the team can earn an extra draft pick if the player meets certain awards voting criteria, via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. On the flip side, if a player is not promoted early enough for a full service year and then goes on to finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting in his league, then he is retroactively credited with a full service year.
Kurtz came into the year as a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball, meaning he would have been PPI-eligible this year if the A’s had called him up earlier. He only got 159 days of service, 13 shy of the 172 needed for a full season. If he were PPI-eligible, this award win would have netted them an extra draft pick in 2026. Since they did not call him up early enough and Kurtz finished in the top two of the voting, he will get a full year of service anyway. That reduces the club’s window of control over Kurtz from six years to five, meaning he’s now on pace to reach free agency after 2030 instead of 2031.
Wilson is Kurtz’s teammate but the two are polar opposites when it comes to their offensive profiles. While Kurtz strikes out a lot but also draws walks and has huge power, Wilson has modest power and rarely walks but almost never strikes out. His 7.5% strikeout rate this year was the second-lowest among qualified hitters, trailing only Luis Arráez. Wilson only hit 13 home runs and drew a walk in just 5.2% of his plate appearances, but he still managed to hit .311/.355/.444 for a 121 wRC+ while playing the premium position of shortstop, even if his defense wasn’t highly rated.
The shortstop actually got promoted in July of 2024 but he landed on the injured list and missed enough time to still have rookie status coming into 2025. Despite having rookie status, he would not have earned the A’s a PPI pick even if he had finished first in the voting. Players are ineligible for the PPI bonus if they have at least 60 days of service time. Wilson earned 73 days of service in 2024, much of it on the injured list, meaning he was in a weird twilight zone of being rookie eligible but not PPI eligible.
Anthony came into the year not only as a top 100 prospect but most rankings had him first or second in the league. However, the Red Sox had a crowded outfield mix that was difficult for him to break into. Eventually, injuries opened a path and he finally got the call in June. By August, he had impressed the Sox enough that they signed him to an eight-year, $130MM extension.
Though he only got into 71 games, Anthony slashed .292/.396/.463 for a 140 wRC+ and stole four bases. He was credited with seven Defensive Runs Saved and six Outs Above Average. FanGraphs credited him with 2.7 wins above replacement in less than half a season. He would have pushed those numbers even further if not for an oblique injury sending him to the IL in early September.
Anthony only got 112 service days this year. He would have earned a full year if he had cracked second place in the voting, though that is largely a moot point with his extension. However, the result does impact him financially when looking at the details of his pact. The deal contains a number of escalators which Anthony can unlock via awards voting. Some extra money could have been tacked on with a top two finish but this third-place finish isn’t enough for him to add anything to the $130MM total. He can still push that up in the future by getting MVP votes.
Several other players received some recognition from the voters. Noah Cameron of the Royals finished fourth in the voting, followed by Colson Montgomery of the White Sox, Carlos Narváez of the Red Sox, Jack Leiter of the Rangers, Will Warren of the Yankees, Luke Keaschall of the Twins, Braydon Fisher of the Blue Jays, Shane Smith of the White Sox, Cam Smith of the Astros, Chandler Simpson of the Rays, Luis Morales of the A’s and Jasson Domínguez of the Yankees.
Photos courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Daniel Kucin Jr., David Richard, Imagn Images
Drake Baldwin Wins National League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Braves PPI Pick
Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Cade Horton of the Cubs and Caleb Durbin of the Brewers finished second and third in the voting, respectively. Baldwin’s win will net Atlanta a bonus draft pick after the first round in 2026, via the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Horton earns a full year of service time from his top two finish. The full voting results can be found here.
Baldwin came into the year as one of the top prospects in baseball. Since he finished the 2024 season at Triple-A, he had a shot at a big league job to start 2025. However, Atlanta was set to open the season with Sean Murphy as the primary backstop. Rather than be a backup at the major league level, there was an argument for Baldwin to stick at Triple-A and get regular reps.
In early March, Murphy suffered a rib fracture, an injury with a timeline of four to six weeks. That opened the door for Baldwin to get an Opening Day job. He hit well in the spring and Atlanta added him to the roster prior to Opening Day. Though Murphy got healthy by early April, Baldwin had already started producing and he never really stopped. The two shared the catching duties fairly evenly for a few months, though Murphy returned to the injured list in September due to a right hip labral tear.
Baldwin finished the year with 446 plate appearances over 124 games. He hit 19 home runs and slashed .274/.341/.469 for a wRC+ of 125. That means he was 25% better than the league average hitter, though that’s even further above par for a catcher. Most outlets considered his defense to be a bit below average, but not by much. FanGraphs credited him with 3.1 wins above replacement on the year.
While Baldwin’s win is surely gratifying for him personally, it also benefits the team. The current collective bargaining agreement introduced measures to combat service time manipulation. If a team promotes a top prospect early enough for him to earn a full service year, then that player meets certain awards criteria, the team is awarded with an extra pick just after the first round in the next draft. Since Baldwin was a consensus top prospect who was up all year, his Rookie of the Year win gives Atlanta a PPI bonus pick in 2026.
Horton also came into the season as one of the top prospects. He had finished 2024 at Triple-A but with just five appearances at that level. He was sent back to Triple-A to start 2025 but the Cubs needed rotation help fairly early on, as Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga were both on the injured list by early May.
Horton was called up on May 10th. He stayed up with the club the rest of the way, though a rib fracture put him on the injured list late in September. He finished the season with 118 innings pitched, having allowed 2.67 earned runs per nine.
There was probably some luck in there. Horton’s 20.4% strikeout rate was subpar, though his 6.9% walk rate was good and his 42.3% ground ball rate right around average. His .258 batting average on balls in play and 78.3% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. ERA estimators like his 3.58 FIP and 4.26 SIERA feel his ERA should have been around a run higher, though the performance was still good enough for a second-place finish in the voting.
That is significant for Horton, as there’s a flipside to the aforementioned PPI bonuses for teams. If a top prospect is not promoted early enough in the season to get a full service year, he can earn one retroactively with a top-two finish in the Rookie of the Year voting. Horton only earned 142 service days this year, 30 shy of the 172 needed for a full season, but this vote result will get him bumped up to the one-year mark. That means he will be on pace to become a free agent after 2030 instead of 2031.
Durbin was not a top prospect to open the year, meaning PPI wasn’t a factor for him, but he had a good season regardless. Acquired from the Yankees last offseason, he was called up in April and took over the third base job in Milwaukee. He appeared in 136 games and stepped to the plate 506 times. He hit just 11 home runs and didn’t walk much but rarely struck out, leading to a .256/.334/.387 line and 105 wRC+. He also stole 18 bases and was credited with five Defensive Runs Saved and two Outs Above Average at the hot corner.
Several other players also received some recognition from the voters. Isaac Collins of the Brewers finished fourth, followed by Daylen Lile of the Nationals, Agustín Ramírez of the Marlins, Chad Patrick of the Brewers, Jakob Marsee of the Marlins, Jack Dreyer of the Dodgers, Matt Shaw of the Cubs, Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers, Nolan McLean of the Mets and Heriberto Hernández of the Marlins.
Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Jordan Godfree, Isaiah J. Downing, Jeff Hanisch, Imagn Images