Trevor Rosenthal Hosting Showcase Today
12:05pm: The Blue Jays, Mets and Marlins will be among the teams in attendance, per respective reports from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, SNY’s Andy Martino and SportsGrid’s Craig Mish.
8:45am: Free-agent right-hander Trevor Rosenthal is holding a showcase for Major League clubs at St. Thomas University in Miami Gardens today, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It stands to reason that scouts from the majority of teams will be in attendance to gauge the former All-Star’s readiness to return to a big league mound.
A healthy Rosenthal can be one of the game’s most effective relievers, as he’s shown at multiple times in the past. Unfortunately, good health has eluded him in recent years. Rosenthal underwent Tommy John surgery partway through the 2017 season, which wiped out the entirety of his 2018 campaign. He returned with the Nats and Tigers in 2019 and had lost all semblance of control over the strike zone, walking 26 of the 85 hitters he faced that season (30.6%) and plunking another four.
On the heels of that alarming season, Rosenthal settled for a minor league deal with the Royals heading into the 2020 season and quickly reestablished himself as a dominant late-inning powerhouse. He pitched just 23 2/3 innings due to the shortened 60-game schedule, but Rosenthal overwhelmed opponents with a 1.90 ERA, an elite 41.8% strikeout rate and a strong 8.3% walk rate — all while averaging 98.1 mph on his heater.
Despite that dominant showing, Rosenthal didn’t find the weighty multi-year deal he sought early in free agency, and he eventually took a one-year, $11MM from a surprise suitor: the A’s. Unfortunately for Oakland and for Rosenthal, injuries again derailed his 2021 season. A groin strain slowed Rosenthal early in Spring Training, and shoulder troubles shelved him to begin the season. Eventually, it was revealed that Rosenthal required surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Over the summer, while working toward what he hoped would be a late-season return, a torn labrum in his hip required yet another surgery.
Rosenthal’s career numbers — 3.36 ERA, 132 saves, 31.2% strikeout rate, 11.3% walk rate, 44.3% grounder rate, 98.1 mph average fastball — all speak to the sheer talent in his right arm. (It’s a 2.91 ERA and 10.1% walk rate if you toss out the anomalous 2019 season.) However, he’s now pitched just 39 innings since undergoing Tommy John surgery way back in Aug. 2017.
Bullpen help is always in demand, and virtually every contending team (and likely several non-contenders) will want to get a look at Rosenthal in hopes of bolstering their relief corps for the season’s second half. Given the lengthy injury layoff, he’s unlikely to command a multi-year pact, so signing Rosenthal figures to be — at worst — a short-term risk with plenty of upside. It’s not clear just yet when Rosenthal would be ready to step onto a big league mound. He’ll presumably require a minor league tune-up to reacclimate to game settings and build additional arm strength, but if he’s ready to audition for MLB clubs, he and agent Scott Boras can’t feel he’s too far off.
Nationals Sign Edgar Garcia To Minor League Deal
The Nationals recently signed reliever Edgar García to a minor league contract. He’s been assigned to the team’s Double-A affiliate in Harrisburg, where he made his organizational debut yesterday.
García, 25, pitched in the majors each season from 2019-21. He’s logged time with four different clubs — the Phillies, Rays, Reds and Twins — and totaled 57 innings over 52 appearances. He owns a cumulative 7.74 ERA as he’s struggled immensely both to keep the ball in the park and avoid free passes. The righty averaged 94 MPH on his fastball last season, though, and he’s generated swinging strikes on a decent 11.3% of his career offerings.
A native of the Dominican Republic, García has had a lot more success keeping runs off the board in the minors. He owns a 3.20 ERA across 78 2/3 career Triple-A innings. García struggled with his control at that level last season, but he’d had capable strikeout and walk numbers in the minors before the 2021 campaign. That track record had been enough to intrigue a few organizations in recent years, and the Nats will see if he can get on track in another new environment.
Should García get off on a good run in the upper minors, there should be a path back to the major leagues. That he’s been assigned to Double-A rather than Triple-A Rochester could indicate he’ll need an extended impressive performance to put himself on the MLB radar, but the Washington bullpen is largely wide open. The Nationals have the league’s fourth-worst bullpen ERA (4.59) and ninth-worst strikeout/walk rate differential (12.3 percentage points).
Reds Activate Jose Barrero From IL, Option Him To Triple-A
The Reds announced they’ve activated shortstop José Barrero from the 10-day injured list. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Louisville, so no additional move is necessary.
Barrero has been on a rehab assignment with Louisville since May 20, and he’ll remain with the Bats for the time being. Position players are allowed up to 20 days on rehab stints before the team must either reinstate them from the IL or recall them from the stint and shut them down for at least another five days (if the player has suffered a setback or a new injury). Barrero’s rehab window was set to wrap up on Wednesday.
The team evidently determined Barrero needs more reps against minor league arms, though, so they’ll keep him on optional assignment. The 24-year-old hasn’t played in a major league game this season after suffering a left hamate injury in Spring Training. While he’s obviously now healthy enough to play, he’s shown some signs of rust with Louisville. Barrero has punched out in 24 of his 57 plate appearances (42.1% rate) on the rehab stint, although he’s also collected a trio of home runs and doubles apiece.
Barrero will spend some more time with the Bats, but he figures to make his return to Cincinnati at some point in the not too distant future. The native of Cuba has been one of the organization’s most promising young players for the past few years, and he entered the 2022 campaign as Baseball America’s #33 overall prospect. He looked a strong candidate to open the season as the Reds shortstop before his Spring Training injury.
Between 2020-21, Barrero tallied 124 plate appearances over 45 MLB games. He’s stumbled to a .197/.242/.248 line, striking out 34.7% of the time against a tiny 3.2% walk rate. He combined for a huge .303/.380/.539 mark between Double-A Chattanooga and Louisville last season, though, and he’s regarded by prospect evaluators as a potential above-average defender at shortstop. It stands to reason the Reds will want to get an extended look for Barrero against big league arms after he gets his timing down in Triple-A, particularly since the club has floundered to an 18-35 start and is a virtual lock to miss the postseason.
Kyle Farmer has been the Reds’ primary shortstop this season, just as he was last year. The former catcher has held his own, entering play Monday with a .258/.314/.421 slash that checks in right around league average by measure of wRC+. It’s the second straight solid season for Farmer, who has surprisingly developed into a regular in his early-30’s.
Farmer will continue holding down the shortstop job while Barrero is in the minors, but it stands to reason other teams will inquire about his availability leading up to the August 2 trade deadline. Cincinnati is likely to listen on veterans this summer given their first-half struggles, and Farmer could be an affordable target for shortstop-needy teams. He’s playing this season on a $3.155MM salary, and while the former eighth-round pick is controllable through 2024, Barrero’s presence and Farmer’s age (32 in August) could push the Reds to deal him in the next couple months.
The Reds are soon to get some help on the other side of the second bag, as the club informed reporters that Jonathan India will start a rehab assignment in Louisville this week (via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). India has been out of action for a bit more than a month dealing with right hamstring trouble, and the reigning NL Rookie of the Year says he’s targeting June 17 for a return to the big league club. India has only appeared in 11 games this year on account of a pair of IL stints.
Blue Jays Select Matt Gage
The Blue Jays announced they’ve selected reliever Matt Gage onto the MLB roster. Jeremy Beasley was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo to clear an active roster spot, while Nate Pearson was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding 40-man move.
Gage is headed to the majors for the first time after spending eight years in the minor leagues. Drafted by the Giants out of Siena College in the tenth round in 2014, Gage spent four seasons in the San Francisco farm system. He topped out at Triple-A before being released, then spent some time in the Mets’ system and in the Mexican League. The southpaw worked as a starter through his time in Mexico but converted to relief after signing a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks heading into 2021.
The New York native dominated over seven Double-A appearances with the D-Backs, but he struggled with home runs en route to a 5.57 ERA in a hitter-friendly environment at Triple-A Reno. Gage qualified for minor league free agency again at the end of the season, and he’s off to a career-best start in Buffalo. The 29-year-old has tossed 16 2/3 innings with the Bisons, working to a sparkling 1.08 ERA. He’s fanned an excellent 32.3% of opposing hitters against a solid 7.7% walk rate to get a big league crack.
Toronto just traded Ryan Borucki to the Mariners over the weekend, thinning the lefty relief mix. Borucki was out of minor league option years, though, so the Jays were limited from a roster perspective with him scuffling. Gage has a trio of options remaining, so he’ll add a more flexible arm behind Andrew Vasquez while Tim Mayza is on the injured list.
Pearson has been out all season recovering from mononucleosis. Today’s IL transfer is strictly a procedural move that doesn’t affect his eligibility window. He’s ruled out for sixty days from Opening Day, not today, which we’ve already surpassed. Pearson is on a rehab assignment at Buffalo and should be reinstated within a couple weeks.
Padres Designate Kyle Tyler For Assignment
The Padres announced they’ve designated reliever Kyle Tyler for assignment. San Diego also sent righty Pedro Avila — whom the club hadn’t previously indicated was in DFA limbo — outright to Triple-A after he went unclaimed on waivers. The moves clear a pair of 40-man roster vacancies for Adrian Morejón and Michel Báez, each of whom have been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to the minor leagues.
Tyler is no stranger to the DFA process, as he was something of the 41st man for a few teams earlier this season. The righty was successively designated for assignment and waived by the Angels, Red Sox, Padres and Angels a second time before being claimed off waivers by the Friars (for the second time in as many months) on April 12. At that point, he finally stuck on a 40-man roster for a couple months, but he’ll lose his spot yet again after a rough start to the season at Triple-A El Paso.
The 25-year-old has tossed 16 2/3 innings across 11 outings with the Chihuahuas, posting a 5.51 ERA. Tyler has punched out a solid 26.8% of batters faced but walked an untenable 19.7% of opponents. That marked a rather surprising turn of events for the former 20th-round pick, who had filled up the strike zone for essentially his entire minor league career prior to this season. That track record earned him his first five big league outings with the Halos last season and caught the attention of a few organizations during the first few weeks of this year. Tyler will now be traded or waived yet again in the coming week.
Avila has gotten to the big leagues in three of the past four years, but he’s made just four cumulative appearances. A well-regarded prospect early in his pro career, he’s seen his stock dip since undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2019. He didn’t pitch in 2020 and spent almost all of last season in the upper minors after being non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal. San Diego selected him to make a start during last season’s final weekend after falling out of playoff contention, and he’d been on the 40-man roster since then.
He’s spent the bulk of this season as a member of the Chihuahuas, only making two MLB appearances. Avila has a disappointing 8.10 ERA in El Paso, where he’s allowed five homers in 23 1/3 frames and walked 15.6% of batters faced. That rough stretch cost the 25-year-old his roster spot. Avila has never been outrighted in his career and has barely any MLB service time, so he can’t refuse the assignment. He’ll remain in El Paso and try to earn another MLB crack.
Morejón will also be on that roster for the time being, as San Diego has optioned him to Triple-A. A one-time top pitching prospect, the southpaw opened last season in the Friars’ rotation. He required Tommy John surgery after just two starts, though, and the procedure obviously ended his campaign before it really got going. Morejón opened this year on the IL as he continued his recovery, but he’s spent the past few weeks in the minors on a rehab appearance. The 23-year-old has thus far topped out at three innings in a game as the team gradually builds his arm strength back.
Pitchers are allotted up to 30 days for rehab stints (although that can be extended for pitchers recovering from TJS with commissioner’s office approval). Whether the club applied for a lengthier rehab leash or not is unclear, but Morejón will now reassume a 40-man roster spot while the optional assignment provides him something of an unofficial rehab opportunity. The Padres already have a rotation logjam, so they can afford to take their time bringing along a young pitcher who is no doubt still viewed as a key piece of the organizational future.
It’s a nearly identical situation for Báez, who has been optioned to Double-A San Antonio. The 26-year-old reliever saw some MLB action between 2019-20, but he underwent a Tommy John procedure late last spring. He’s been on the IL since then but has made nine minor league appearances as he builds his arm back up.
Twins Sign Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Thornburg To Minors Deals
The Twins have agreed to a minor league contract with starter Aaron Sanchez, reports Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link). Minnesota also signed reliever Tyler Thornburg to a non-roster deal over the weekend, assigning him to Triple-A St. Paul.
Sanchez began the season in the Nationals’ organization after signing a minor league deal in March. He opened the year in Triple-A but was selected to the majors in mid-April. The 29-year-old made seven starts with the Nats but was tagged for an 8.33 ERA as he struck out a career-low 11.3% of opposing hitters. Sanchez threw a fair amount of strikes and induced grounders on over the half the batted balls against him, but he surrendered six home runs in 31 1/3 innings while struggling to miss bats.
Washington designated Sanchez for assignment and outrighted him off their roster late last month, at which point he elected free agency. The Southern California native once looked like a potential rotation building block for the Blue Jays, making an All-Star appearance and leading American League qualifiers in ERA in 2016. Sanchez has assumed more of a journeyman role in the last few seasons, though, particularly since undergoing shoulder surgery in September 2019. After working in the mid-upper 90s at peak, he averaged just north of 90 MPH on his fastball with the Giants last year and a pedestrian 92 MPH for Washington this season.
Thornburg has also spent time in the NL East this year, as he began the season with the Braves. Atlanta had signed the veteran reliever to a $900K contract during Spring Training, and he opened the season in the big league bullpen. Thornburg allowed six runs (four earned) in 9 1/3 frames, striking out ten while issuing five walks. His early-season velocity was right in line with career norms, but Thornburg’s swing-and-miss rate was underwhelming and the Braves had consigned him to lower-leverage work. Atlanta designated him for assignment and released him in late May.
The 33-year-old has appeared in parts of nine MLB seasons, suiting up with the Brewers, Red Sox, Reds and Braves. Thornburg was quietly one of the league’s more effective late-game weapons in Milwaukee between 2013-16, but he’s struggled with injuries and underperformance in the years since then. Thornburg, who made his organizational debut with St. Paul yesterday, will try to pitch his way into a Minnesota bullpen that has been middle-of-the-pack thus far.
The rotation was generally expected to be a weakness, but Twins’ starters enter play Monday with the 7th-lowest collective ERA (3.54). That’s a big reason the club is currently sitting 32-24 and four and a half games clear of the competition in the AL Central, but they’ve been hit by a series of injuries over the past month.
Minnesota lost another rotation member this evening, announcing that right-hander Bailey Ober has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 3, due to a right groin strain. That’s the same issue that already resulted in an IL stint earlier in the season, as he was on the shelf for the first three weeks of May.
Ober made it back to the mound on May 22, and he’s made three starts since returning. The 26-year-old has allowed nine runs in 14 innings over that time, and he’ll apparently need some more time to recover. Ober earned himself a season-opening rotation spot with a solid 4.19 ERA showing across 20 starts as a rookie last year. He’d allowed only eight runs in 19 2/3 innings through four April outings prior to his first IL stint.
Minnesota is also without Joe Ryan — currently on the COVID-19 IL — and Sonny Gray, who hit the IL late last week due to a pectoral strain. Josh Winder has been out since mid-May dealing with a shoulder impingement, and the team lost Chris Paddack to Tommy John surgery last month. Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer are rotation locks, with Cole Sands probably the top depth option on the 40-man roster. Prospects Jordan Balazovic and Ronny Henriquez are already on the 40-man and starting games with St. Paul, but both have struggled mightily this year. Sanchez joins Chi Chi González as experienced, non-roster depth options with the Saints.
In additional procedural moves, the Twins reinstated four players — Max Kepler, Emilio Pagán, Trevor Megill and Caleb Thielbar — from the restricted list. Jharel Cotton and Ian Hamilton, both of whom had been selected to the roster as designated COVID-19 substitutes before the club’s weekend series in Toronto, have been removed from the 40-man and returned to St. Paul. That’s also true of González, who started Friday’s game but was returned over the weekend.
Have The Brewers Developed Another Ace?
The Brewers’ rotation has been its primary strength for the past several seasons. Entering the year the club looked like the favorite in the NL Central (or at least a co-favorite) on the strength of the three-headed monster of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and 2021 National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Brewers starters have indeed been excellent both in the eyes of traditional and newer metrics, ranking fifth in the Majors with a collective 3.36 ERA, fourth with a 3.43 FIP and third with a 3.44 SIERA.
The route the Brewers have taken to get there, however, isn’t the one any would’ve forecast heading into the season. Burnes has been predictably excellent, working to a 2.50 ERA on the back of a dominant K-BB% and thus far making a strong bid for a repeat win in the Cy Young balloting. Woodruff, however, is struggling through his worst full season as a starter thanks to an alarming spike in home-run rate, and he recently hit the IL with a high ankle sprain. Peralta, meanwhile, pitched just 38 2/3 innings of 4.42 ERA ball before a lat strain sent him to the injured list. He’s not expected back anytime soon.
So, how have the Brewers continued on as one of the game’s best starting staffs? They’ve received solid if unspectacular work from fifth starter Adrian Houser and some intriguing work from rookie Aaron Ashby, but the biggest driving factor that’s allowed them to weather the Woodruff struggles and Peralta injury has been Eric Lauer‘s transformation from back-of-the-rotation arm to what looks like the next great Brewers starter.
Acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in a deal that sent outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies to San Diego, Lauer was seen as a back-of-the-rotation option for the Brewers at the time of the swap. That’s understandable, as from 2018-19, he’d been just that with the Padres. Between those two seasons, Lauer tallied 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball with a below-average strikeout rate (20.6%), a solid walk rate (8.4%) and below-average ground-ball tendencies (38.9%). Generally speaking, he fit the soft-tossing-lefty mold with which most baseball fans are familiar: strike-thrower who doesn’t overpower opponents but has good command of the zone and keeps his team in the game more often than not.
As recently as the 2020-21 offseason, the trade to acquire Lauer and Urias looked quite lopsided in San Diego’s favor. Lauer tossed just 11 innings for the Brewers in 2020, while Urias provided no real offensive value through 120 plate appearances that season. Grisham, meanwhile, was excellent while playing 59 of 60 games for the Padres that summer, and Davies had the best year of his career by a wide margin (which helped the Padres subsequently include him in the trade to acquire Yu Darvish from the Cubs). Recent play from Urias and especially Lauer has flipped the narrative, though.
Lauer opened the 2021 season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club and spent the first month of the year there before being recalled to the Majors on April 29. Over his first nine appearances (seven starts, two from the bullpen), he posted a nondescript 4.50 ERA/5.08 FIP and garnered little attention. At that point, few would’ve pegged Lauer as a critical cog to the Brewers’ immediate rotation plans.
On July 3 of last season, however, something changed. Lauer threw a slider. It wasn’t the first of his career, but it was his first of the season. He wound up throwing the pitch just under 20% of the time that day, taking his retooled breaking ball for a test drive against a hapless Pirates lineup with good success. Lauer has featured the pitch regularly since, and it’s difficult to overstate just how important it has been to his arsenal.
Since re-debuting the pitch on July 3 last season, FanGraphs ranks Lauer sixth among all Major League starting pitchers in slider runs above average. His slider trails only Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Tarik Skubal and, ever-so-slightly, Brad Keller. That’s a bit misleading, though, as all of those pitchers other than Scherzer throw their slider more often than Lauer. Keller has thrown his slider at a 38.7% clip in that time, while Cease has used his exactly a third of the time. Ohtani is at 28.8% and Skubal at 26.8%. Lauer’s 19.9% usage rate from 2021-22 comes in at exactly half that of Keller. In other words, on a per-pitch basis, Lauer’s slider has been substantially move valuable than all of Cease, Ohtani, Skubal and Keller.
In fact, when shifting to look at slider value per 100 pitches thrown, Scherzer is the only starter in baseball (min. 50 innings) whose slider has generated more value. (Notably, had the beginning of Lauer’s slider usage not coincided almost perfectly with Jacob deGrom‘s 2021 season-ending injury, he’d have ranked above Lauer as well, given that deGrom unsurprisingly had the best per-pitch slider in MLB last year.)
Lauer wound up throwing 224 sliders from July 3 onward last season, and in the 73 plate appearances that culminated with that pitch, his opponents batted just .123/.219/.215. He’s thrown 201 sliders this season, finished off 61 plate appearances with the pitch, and yielded just a .140/.180/.193 output to opponents. This season, Statcast ranks Lauer sixth among big league pitchers (min. 50 PAs) with a .221 expected wOBA against his slider. Given the pitch’s success, it’s little surprise that Lauer is throwing it at a career-high 21.9% clip so far in 2022, and you could argue he ought to feature it even more heavily.
All told, since Lauer reincorporated the slider into his arsenal, he’s made 23 starts and pitched to a 2.40 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate. He’s had some good fortune, evidenced by a .247 average on balls in play and an 83.6% strand rate, but even accounting for some likely regression in those areas, Lauer looks like a completely different pitcher. That’s especially true because the addition of a slider doesn’t appear to be the only meaningful change that’s led to his breakout.
Entering the 2022 season, Lauer had averaged 91.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He saw a slight uptick from 91.7 mph (2018-20) to 92.5 mph in 2021, however, and he’s sitting at a career-high 93.7 mph so far in 2022. The left-hander told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel near the end of Spring Training (where he’d also shown a noticeable jump in velocity readings) that his strong finish in 2021 allowed him to shift his offseason focus from searching for flaws in his delivery and refining his mechanics to building strength. Said Lauer at the time:
“It was more a focus on strength training and finally getting used to my body being synched up like it is now. I spent a lot of time this offseason focusing on upper body movement and strength so I think we’re finally seeing everything line up.”
Lauer’s fastball hasn’t morphed into a dominant offering with the newfound velocity, but it’s performed much better — as one would expect upon jumping nearly two miles per hour in a two-year span. The 2020-21 version of Lauer’s heater was a decidedly below-average offering, according to run values from both FanGraphs and Statcast. Both now rate it as a roughly average pitch. Lauer has posted a career-best 12.9% swinging-strike rate (swings-and-misses per total pitches thrown) on his four-seamer in 2022. His 33.3% whiff rate (swings-and-misses per swing) on the four-seamer is up from 26.5% in 2021 and way up from the 21.5% he posted in 2018-19 with San Diego.
Lauer is far from a two-pitch starter, as he’ll also work in a cutter, curveball and more occasional changeup (which also rates excellently on a per-pitch basis). But the improvements he’s made to his four-seamer and especially to his slider have vaulted him from a fairly run-of-the-mill back-end starter to a legitimate weapon who’s helped the Brewers offset downturns in production from Woodruff and Peralta.
Barring an extension, the Brewers control Lauer for two years beyond the current campaign. That timeframe lines up directly with all three of Burnes, Woodruff and Houser. Peralta is signed through 2024, and his contract contains affordable 2025 and 2026 club options for Milwaukee. The aforementioned Ashby, who perhaps merits a deep dive of his own, is controllable all the way through 2027.
Suffice it to say, the long-term outlook for the Brewers’ staff is quite bright. And, if Milwaukee can get Woodruff and Peralta healthy and closer to 2021 form by the season’s final month, their top four starters — paired with Josh Hader and Devin Williams — will again give them the type of formidable staff that can carry a deep postseason run, provided the Brewers’ bats speak louder than they did last October (six total runs in four NLDS games against the Braves).
Read The Transcript Of Today’s Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.
We’ll be hosting fantasy baseball-focused chats with Brad regularly, and feel free to drop him some questions on Twitter @BaseballATeam as well.
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with Brad!
Astros Sign Yordan Alvarez To Six-Year Extension
June 6: The Astros have formally announced Alvarez’s six-year deal. They’ll hold a press conference this afternoon at 2:30pm CT.
June 3, 12:48pm: Alvarez’s contract breaks down in the form of a $5MM signing bonus followed by annual salaries of $7MM (2023), $10MM (2024), $15MM (2025) and $26MM (2026-28), Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 reports (Twitter link). He’s already passed a physical.
12:19pm: The Astros have agreed to terms on a six-year, $115MM contract extension with Yordan Alvarez, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). The contract begins next season and will cover the 2023-28 seasons. Alvarez is represented by the MVP Sports Group.
Alvarez, 25 later this month, was on pace to reach free agency following the 2025 season and would have hit the open market at at just 28 years of age. Instead, his new contract will buy out all three of his arbitration seasons and give the Astros control over what would have been Alvarez’s first three free-agent seasons. Alvarez technically won’t reach three years of Major League service time until tomorrow, but since the contract begins next year, it can effectively be viewed as the second-largest deal ever signed by a player in the three-plus service bracket, trailing only Freddie Freeman‘s eight-year, $135MM extension with the Braves back in 2014.
Acquired in a flat-out heist that sent reliever Josh Fields to the Dodgers, Alvarez burst onto the Major League scene in 2019 when he mashed at a .313/.412/.655 pace and crushed 27 home runs in just 369 plate appearances. Despite barely spending half the season in the Majors (87 games), Alvarez was the unanimous American League Rookie of the Year. While he missed nearly the entire 2020 season due to arthroscopic surgery that was performed on both knees, he was back in full force a year later, hitting .277/.346/.531 with 33 home runs in 598 trips to the plate.
Since making his big league debut, Alvarez has quite simply been one of the best hitters on the planet. He’s a career .287/.370/.576 hitter, and the resulting 156 wRC+ (indicating he’s 56% better than the league-average hitter) sits just ahead of Juan Soto and trails only Mike Trout (177) among all qualified MLB hitters in that span.
Alvarez achieves his dominance at the plate through a keen eye (10.8% walk rate), improving bat-to-ball skills (his 17.6% strikeout rate is down from his rookie year’s 25.5% mark) and, most importantly, through hitting the ever-loving snot out of the ball. Since 2019, Alvarez ranks third in the Majors in both average exit velocity (93.3 mph) and overall hard-hit rate (54.2%), as well as eighth in barrel rate (16.1%) per Statcast. He’s taken that pristine Statcast profile to new heights in 2022, as he’s currently leading the Majors in hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.
While Alvarez is primarily a designated hitter and figures to spend even less time in the field as he ages, he’s still seeing a decent chunk of time in left field. He’s logged 155 innings there this year and 540 innings through 278 big league games. He doesn’t rate as a strong outfielder but also hasn’t necessarily drawn butcher-esque reviews for his defense to this point (-2 Defensive Runs Saved, 0.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, and a more bearish -5 Outs Above Average). No one is going to mistake Alvarez for a potential Gold Glove candidate, but as an occasional option to give the Astros’ regular outfielders a breather, he’s a passable enough option who can be relied upon to make the routine plays.
Alvarez is now signed longer than any other Astros player, surpassing Lance McCullers Jr., whose contract runs through the 2026 season. His extension gives the ‘Stros a hefty $107MM on next year’s books before the offseason even begins and with several key arbitration cases (e.g. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier) to address. Houston has more than $100MM committed as far out as the 2024 season, although for a team that flirted with the luxury tax in 2021 and took its actual 2021 payroll upwards of $190MM last year, that’s not an dire outlay.
The Alvarez extension ensures that he, Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve will continue to anchor the Houston lineup through at least the 2024 season (when the contracts of Alruve and Bregman are set to expire). Young shortstop Jeremy Pena has given every reason to believe so far that he can be counted among that core group of hitters, and the Astros are hopeful that prospects like Pedro Leon, Colin Barber and Korey Lee could eventually do the same.
White Sox Sign Mike Wright To Minor League Deal
The White Sox signed right-hander Mike Wright Jr. to a minor league contract, per an announcement from the team’s Triple-A affiliate, the Charlotte Knights. Wright actually started yesterday’s game for the Knights, tossing six innings of three-run ball while allowing three hits and two walks with one strikeout.
It’s the second ChiSox stint for Wright, who was with the South Siders in 2021 as well. He had a nice run with the Knights in 2021 when he pitched to a 3.40 ERA over the life of 95 1/3 innings, but Wright was tagged for 11 earned runs in 18 big league frames (5.50 ERA) with as many walks issued as strikeouts recorded (11 apiece).
Wright — who has also spent parts of five seasons with the Orioles, one with the Mariners and one with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos — opened the 2022 season with the Dodgers’ Triple-A club after signing a minor league deal in Spring Training. He worked to a 4.46 ERA in 34 1/3 frames with their affiliate in Oklahoma City but posted a more concerning 13% walk rate against just a 16.9% strikeout rate. Overall, he’s pitched 276 big league innings but has just a 5.97 earned run average to his credit thus far.
Wright will give the Sox some needed depth after a series of injuries and some pronounced struggles from Dallas Keuchel have thinned out their starting depth in 2022. Lance Lynn has yet to pitch this season after undergoing spring knee surgery, though he’s on a rehab assignment and finally nearing his season debut. Vince Velasquez has struggled quite a bit himself and recently landed on the injured list owing to a groin strain. Keuchel, meanwhile, pitched himself off the roster entirely by logging a 7.88 ERA in 32 innings (eight starts). The Sox designated him for assignment and released him last week.
Lucas Giolito recently returned from the injured list, and the Sox have gotten a better-than-expected performance from former All-Star Johnny Cueto, who inked a minor league deal himself back in early April. Cueto blanked the Royals and the Yankees over six frames apiece in a pair of road outings to begin his White Sox tenure. He was tagged by the Cubs for five runs in his debut at Guaranteed Rate Field and has since tossed a quality start on the road against the Jays as well. Overall, he’s sporting a 2.92 ERA in 24 2/3 frames, cementing his place on the starting staff alongside Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and (barring any late setbacks) the soon-to-return Lynn.
Wright, then, will join rookie Davis Martin and fellow righty Jimmy Lambert as Triple-A depth. He’ll likely be behind that pair on the depth chart given that they’re already on the 40-man roster, but health issues and a slightly condensed 2022 schedule — thanks to the season’s late start — could create some opportunities for Wright down the line if he throws well in Charlotte.