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Kline, Urena Remain With Orioles

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10:15am: Connolly tweets that the both Kline and Urena remain with the Orioles organization and neither has been released. We regret the inaccuracy.

8:50am: Right-hander Branden Kline and infielder Richard Urena were both among the Orioles’ wave of recent releases, according to J.J. Cooper and Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly previously reported that the Baltimore org had cut 37 low-level minor leaguers, but both Kline and Urena add two former big leaguers to the list of Baltimore cuts. Both had been removed from the 40-man roster back in February, however.

Kline, 28, appeared in 34 games for the O’s last season, tallying 41 innings of relief in his debut campaign at the Major League level. Things didn’t go particularly well, however, as Kline was clobbered for a 5.93 ERA (5.87 FIP) with averages of 7.5 strikeouts, 4.2 walks and 1.98 homers per nine innings pitched. The 2012 second-round pick’s work in Triple-A wasn’t any better. That said, Kline is a season removed from pitching to a combined 1.64 ERA in 65 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced (20 2/3 innings) and Double-A (45 innings). He averaged 9.7 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 while recording 17 saves that year, although it should be pointed out that he was a fair bit older and more experienced than the average competition at those levels.

As for Urena, the 24-year-old had spent his entire career with the Blue Jays organization prior to being claimed off waivers by the Orioles back in January. Baltimore designated Urena for assignment in February upon claiming fellow infielder Andrew Velazquez, and the O’s were successful in passing Urena through waivers, thus keeping him in the organization without committing a 40-man roster spot to him.

Urena appeared in a combined 91 games with the Jays from 2017-19, appearing at shortstop, second base and third base (in addition to three innings in left field and one inning on the mound in a blow0ut game). But while Urena is a versatile defender, he’s yet to show much at the plate in the Majors or upper minors. He’s a career .253/.300/.336 hitter in 263 MLB plate appearances and a .250/.289/.373 hitter in 670 plate appearances with Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate in Buffalo.

Get Ready For The MLB Trade Rumors Mock Expansion Draft!

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As we wait to see whether MLB and the players will come together to play a shortened 2020 season, why is this the right time to hold a mock expansion draft here at MLBTR?  Well, lots of reasons!

A mock expansion draft serves an interesting thought exercise.  If each MLB team were allowed to protect only 15 players, who would be left exposed?  Thousands of MLBTR readers have participated in polls over the last few weeks in an attempt to answer that question for each of the 30 teams.  Click here to see who’s available in the draft – and be sure to check out both the “By Team” and “By Player” tabs in this Google Sheet.  Who would be your top picks?  Let us know in the comments.

The current MLB transaction freeze presents a unique opportunity, as team rosters have remained stable to allow us to spend weeks creating protected lists.  The unprecedented transaction freeze and lack of games and also means we have less to write about here at MLBTR, and the mock expansion draft helps fill the void.

Also, consider the possibility that MLB might actually be driven to expansion within the next several years as a result of revenue lost to the coronavirus.  Mike Axisa of CBS Sports wrote about this recently, noting that the Rockies and Marlins were born in part as a way for the existing 28 teams to raise cash, speculating that MLB could charge expansion teams a billion dollar entry fee or more per each new team.

MLB’s last expansion draft took place in 1997, with the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays.  Those were simpler times, both in terms of player evaluation and fan interest in the hot stove.  Consider this nugget from Pedro Gomez of The Arizona Republic back in ’97.  “The biggest cheer in the [Diamondbacks draft war] room came after Tampa Bay selected outfielder Bobby Abreu with its third selection. There were slaps on the back and high-fives passed out. ’Our first break,’ one of them said.”  The Diamondbacks’ front office actually high-fived because the Devil Rays took Abreu, allowing catcher Jorge Fabregas to get to them.  Not so fast with accolades for Tampa Bay, though – they had an agreement in place to immediately trade Abreu to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.

If an expansion draft were to happen in 2020, it’s easy to imagine a big live event put on by MLB.  MLB Network would broadcast the picks and sites like MLBTR and many others would be obsessively covering the lead-up, rumors, and actual event.  Back in ’97?  “The Rays’ brain trust began the day with a 7 a.m. breakfast with the 70 or so Tampa Bay fans who traveled to the draft,” wrote Marc Topkin and John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times.  More people will follow along live with MLBTR’s mock expansion draft this week than followed along with the last real one!  Noted the Tampa Bay Times writers, “Unlike the NFL draft, which sparks wild cheers and boos from the fans’ gallery, there was little reaction to the lesser-known picks by the 75 supporters from both teams.” 

So get ready: my Portland Lumberjacks will compete with Connor Byrne’s Las Vegas Vipers to put together the best 38-man roster.  The live event will take place here at MLBTR on Thursday, June 4th, at 1pm central time.  We’re not messing around here.  In 1997, Topkin and Romano noted, “The Rays were so serious about keeping their plans under wraps they hired 24-hour security to guard the team’s War Room the past week and had the area searched for electronic bugs each morning.”  Rest assured, I’m taking our expansion draft just as seriously, and I have indeed bugged Connor’s home.  In the coming days, Connor and I will be poring over the list of 438 available players and crafting our strategies.  We invite you to do the same!

Quick Hits: A’s, Phillies, Yankees, Mets

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Checking in on a few MLB teams…

  • Athletics owner John J. Fisher made the widely panned decision last week to stop paying minor leaguers at the end of May. Industry sources told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle they’re of the belief that “the front office was tremendously disappointed” in A’s ownership’s call. It’s a choice that Slusser notes could have a negative effect on the A’s after next week’s five-round draft, as various minor leaguers and agents told Slusser the A’s would not be their No. 1 choice. However, as Slusser writes, Oakland still has a chance to land talent if it’s willing to pay enough, and if it presents the best opportunity to the player.
  • With no season underway yet, the Phillies are in cost-cutting mode. Owner John Middleton told full-time employees in an email Monday that the team’s projecting losses of “substantially more than $100 million” in 2020, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. As a result, anyone in the team’s business department who’s on a $90K salary or above must take a pay cut. The Phillies will continue to provide health insurance, pension and 401(k) benefits to their full-time staff. However, because there may not be fans in the stands this year, the team’s facing “an enormous financial challenge” according to Middleton, who wrote that “approximately 40% of our total annual revenue is generated by attendance — tickets, food and merchandise concessions, parking and sponsorships.” Of course, the lack of fans is one of the reasons the owners have pushed for a far smaller schedule this year. They and the players have not been on the same wavelength in negotiations, though.
  • Teams are expected to have a few extra rosters if there is a season in 2020. Between that and likely a lack of a minor league campaign, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News has been profiling Yankees pitching prospects who could get to the majors sooner than expected this year. Right-handers Deivi Garcia (link) and Clarke Schmidt (link) are among them. Garcia (No. 3) ranks a bit below Schmidt (No. 2) on Baseball America’s list of Yankees farmhands, and the scouts Ackert spoke with are optimistic they’ll turn into capable major league contributors.
  • The Mets have reopened their spring training complex in Port St. Lucie, Fla., to players for the first time since late March, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. Four to six players, including catcher Wilson Ramos, have resumed training at the facility. It’s an encouraging sign that they’re getting back to work, though DiComo points out that the players must follow “MLB, CDC, and local and state safety protocols.”

A Bad Trade Gets Even Worse

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Neither the Pirates nor their long-suffering fans needed more unfortunate news Wednesday, but they received some centering on one of the team’s most prominent players. The club announced that right-hander Chris Archer underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on Tuesday, meaning he won’t play in 2020 if there is a season.

While the team believes Archer will be ready to return in 2021, it’s very much up in the air whether he will pitch for the Pirates again. The club does have Archer’s rights for ’21 by way of an option worth $11MM, but it could choose to buy him out instead for a relatively paltry $250K. In light of the surgery – not to mention the money the low-budget Pirates would save (which could be all the more important for them in these uncertain economic times) and Archer’s uninspiring production in their uniform – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bucs cut ties with him in a few months.

It’s well known by now to everyone who closely follows the majors, but here’s yet another reminder: Archer joined Pittsburgh in a 2018 trade with the Rays that looked like one of the worst in Pirates history even before Wednesday’s developments. The Pirates and then-general manager Neal Huntington thought they were acquiring a front-end, reasonably priced starter in Archer, who was then 29 and someone who had recorded a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP with more than a strikeout per inning in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Since Archer got to Pittsburgh, though, his run prevention has gone in the tank. While he has struck out almost 11 batters per nine, he has also logged a less-than-stellar 4.92 ERA/4.71 FIP over 172 innings as a Pirate.

The Rays, for their part, are no doubt pleased with their end of the trade. They came away with outfielder Austin Meadows and righty Tyler Glasnow, who were promising prospects as Pirates and who have since proven their worth in the majors. The 25-year-old Meadows was a 4.0-fWAR player with 33 home runs a season ago. Glasnow missed a substantial amount of time with injuries in 2019, but the towering 26-year-old was a force during the 60 2/3 innings he did accrue, as he owned hitters with a 1.78 ERA/2.26 FIP, 11.27 K/9 against 2.08 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate.

Now more than ever before, it appears the Pirates are going to rue making this deal. So, perhaps they’ll regard it as a sunk cost and decline Archer’s option when the time comes, especially considering new GM Ben Cherington has no connection to the trade that brought the hurler to the Steel City. As you’d expect, though, Cherington suggested Wednesday he hasn’t closed the door on retaining Archer.

“We won’t have games to evaluate, but there will be other information that we have at that time that we don’t have now,” Cherington told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “We want to take all the time we possibly can until we have no time remaining, and then make the best decision we can at that time.”

Cherington would probably like to at least get something for Archer in a trade, but that may be impossible to ask now that he’s coming off TOS surgery. Regardless, do you think Archer is done as a Pirate?

(Poll link for app users)

MLB Rejects MLBPA Proposal; No Counter-Offer Planned

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5:21pm: Two team executives, Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams and Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, expressed optimism Wednesday that the owners and players will hammer something out. Williams told Jim Day of Fox Sports Ohio that “both sides want to play,” interestingly adding that he believes an agreement’s “very close” (via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). Stearns said, “I firmly believe we are going to have baseball this season” (per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

3:43pm: The two sides are seeing eye to eye on expanded playoffs and the universal DH, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They’re also “close to agreeing on the all-important health protocols,” Heyman writes, but season length could still stand in the way of a deal.

2:45pm: One possible point of leverage for the MLBPA, per Rosenthal and Drellich (subscription required), is that the March agreement offers rather concrete language indicating that MLB cannot simply impose an expanded postseason format without agreement from the union. A May report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested that expanding the postseason to the oft-floated 14-team setup would increase projected television revenue from $777MM to roughly $1 billion.

Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweets that he’s heard some talk of pushing the potential start date back from the July 4 weekend to July 15, as the league and union continue their interminable staredown.

1:00pm: The latest, widely expected step in the exhausting back-and-forth between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association became official today, as the league has formally rejected the union’s proposal for a 114-game season with prorated salaries, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Moreover, the league has no plans to even extend a counter-proposal. The commissioner’s office has begun speaking with owners about implementing a shortened season, Rosenthal adds, and hopes to have similar talks with the union (rather than a negotiation regarding season length).

Owners contend that ommissioner Rob Manfred can seek to unilaterally impose a shortened season if the union won’t budge from its prorated salary demands, and it appears that’s where they’re leaning, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Either a 48- to 54-game season with fully prorated salaries or an 82-game season at less than prorated salaries are under consideration.

The union can still push back on that, however; Rosenthal and Drellich wrote over the weekend that the MLBPA could point to a clause in the March agreement which states the league will make its “best efforts to play as many games as possible” as a point of contention against a league-implemented short schedule. Union chief Tony Clark could conceivably point to his side’s 114-game proposal as an effort to honor that language while contending that the league simply has not done so. As for any chances of the MLBPA accepting a 48- or 54-game season, those seem minuscule. The union wasn’t pleased with an 82-game schedule; nearly halving that hardly seems like a palatable alternative. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets that one player described those proposed lengths to him as a “joke” and “absurd.”

All of this aligns with an ominous sentiment tweeted by SNY’s Andy Martino this morning, wherein he reported that there “has not been much dialogue” between the league and the players union. Sherman adds to that, noting that he’s “heard greater pessimism today” from both sides than at any point since these negotiation began.

There’s a bit more optimism on the health and safety guidelines, it seems; Martino writes in a full column that the two sides have made progress and believe an agreement can be reached. Might some productive talks in another area finally help facilitate a breakthrough in terms of player salary? Some speculate that to be the case, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic when neither side appears willing to give an inch.

[Related: HoopsRumors — NBA Expected to Approve 22-Team Return-to-Play Format]

The next chapter in this interminable saga unfolds against the backdrop of the NBA’s impending vote on its own return-to-play scenario. A vote to ratify that plan will come tomorrow and would bring basketball back on July 31. MLB seemed to have the opportunity to come back in early July and be the first major sport to give starved fans across North America some of the entertainment they’ve desperately craved. On the surface, doing so seemed like an opportunity to perhaps broaden the sport’s fanbase by attracting new fans (or luring old ones back into the fold) as the only game in town, so to speak. Instead, there’s increased doubt as to whether a season will be played at all.

At this point, the “good faith” negotiations that were oft-referenced in the March agreement are a distant memory. Both sides have issued proposals they knew to be nonstarters — twice, in the league’s case, although the revenue-sharing plan was a strategic leak rather than a formal proposal. Now, ownership appears intent on driving home the point that play will only resume under its terms.

Remembering The Top Of The 1997 Expansion Draft

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In case you missed it, MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes and I are gearing up for a mock expansion draft that will kick off Thursday at 1 p.m. CT. On the eve of our event, I figured it would be worthwhile to go back to 1997 – the last time there was a real expansion draft in Major League Baseball – and specifically focus on the first 10 players whom the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks took off the board. For the most, real standouts were hard to come by near the top of that draft (here are all 70 selections if you’re interested). Maybe Tim’s Portland Lumberjacks and my Las Vegas Vipers will stumble on more gems Thursday.

1.) Tony Saunders, LHP, Devil Rays:

  • Saunders, then 23, was coming off a rookie year with the Marlins in which he pitched to a 4.61 ERA/4.46 FIP across 111 1/3 innings. Little did he or Tampa Bay know his career wouldn’t extend much beyond then. Saunders made 40 starts and tossed 234 1/3 innings of 4.53 ERA/4.51 FIP from 1998-99, but he broke his arm (warning: that video is hard to watch) on the mound in the second of those seasons and broke it again while rehabbing the next year. He had to retire after that.

2.) Brian Anderson, LHP, Diamondbacks:

  • Twenty-five at the time, Anderson was a former No. 3 overall pick (1993) who was coming off a run of unspectacular pitching with the Angels and Indians when he went from Cleveland to Arizona in the expansion draft. But Anderson did end up eating a lot of innings as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he recorded a 4.52 ERA/4.91 FIP with 4.39 K/9 and 1.64 BB/9 over 840 2/3 frames from 1998-2002. He was part of the D-backs’ only World Series-winning team in 2001.

3.) Jeff Suppan, RHP, Diamondbacks:

  • Then 22, Suppan was coming off a so-so tenure in parts of three seasons with the Red Sox when the Diamondbacks selected him. He barely even pitched for the Diamondbacks, as the Royals purchased him in 1998 after Suppan totaled 66 innings of 6.68 ERA ball in Arizona. However, Suppan did go on to a long major league career. As a member of a few different teams, he combined for a 4.70 ERA/4.86 FIP and 2,542 2/3 innings from 1995-2012.

4.) Quinton McCracken, OF, Devil Rays:

  • A former Rockie who was 27 when the expansion draft rolled around, McCracken got off to a decent start in Tampa Bay in 1998, when he batted .292/.335/.410 with seven home runs, 19 steals and 1.5 fWAR in 675 plate appearances. However, owing in part to a torn ACL, McCracken only mustered a line of .229/.308/.291 with one homer, six steals and minus-1.4 fWAR in 202 PA from 1999-2000. The Rays released him after that.

5.) Gabe Alvarez, 3B, Diamondbacks:

  • Alvarez, whom Arizona took from San Diego, never played for Arizona. The Diamondbacks traded Alvarez, righty Matt Drews and infielder Joe Randa to the Tigers for third baseman Travis Fryman on the day of the expansion draft. None of Alvarez, Drews or Randa offered much impact in Detroit. Fryman didn’t play for Arizona, which quickly flipped him and lefty Tom Martin to Cleveland for third baseman Matt Williams.

6.) Bobby Abreu, OF, Devil Rays:

  • This could have been an absolute steal for Tampa Bay, but the club squandered it. Abreu, whom the D-Rays got from the Astros, went on to enjoy at least a “Hall of Very Good career.” He played with a few teams (primarily the Phillies) from 1996-2014 and slashed .291/.395/.475 with 288 homers, 400 steals and 59.8 fWAR. None of his 10,081 plate appearances came as a Ray, though, as the club dealt him to the Phillies for shortstop Kevin Stocker on the day of the draft. Stocker took 804 PA with Tampa Bay from 1998-2000 and batted .250/.329/.347 with nine homers.

7.) Jorge Fabregas, C, Diamondbacks:

  • The Diamondbacks wanted Fabregas so much that they were happy Tampa Bay took Abreu instead. Oops. Most recently a member of the White Sox when the Diamondbacks scooped him up, Fabregas had a short stint in Arizona. He amassed 167 PA with the team in 1998 and hit .199/.263/.245. The D-backs traded him and righty Willie Blair to the Mets that summer for RHP Nelson Figueroa and outfielder Bernard Gilkey.

8.) Miguel Cairo, INF, Devil Rays:

  • Twenty-three when the Rays grabbed him from the Cubs, Cairo wound up lasting 17 seasons with several different clubs, though he was never much of an offensive threat. His OPS as a Devil Ray from 1998-2000 (.675) matched his lifetime mark.

9.) Karim Garcia, OF, Diamondbacks:

  • This couldn’t have worked out better for Arizona, and it had little to do with Garcia’s contributions in its uniform. After swiping the then-22-year-old from the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks saw Garcia turn in a .222/.260/.381 line in 354 PA in 1998. The D-backs subsequently traded Garcia to the Tigers for outfielder Luis Gonzalez, who was largely outstanding in the desert from 1999-2006 and whose World Series-winning hit against Mariano Rivera and the Yankees in 2001 will always count as one of the most iconic moments in baseball history.

10.) Rich Butler, OF, Devil Rays:

  • Butler joined Tampa Bay as a 24-year-old who played in all of seven games with the Blue Jays in 1997. He appeared in 79 as a Devil Ray from 1998-99, but he never played in the majors again after combining to hit .219/.274/.350 in 259 PA during those two seasons.

Several Prospects Withdraw From 2020 Draft

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With MLB’s shortened, five-round draft a week away, multiple players have removed their names from consideration. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports that high school outfielders Dylan Crews and Brandon Fields have withdrawn their names, as has Florida State outfielder Reese Albert, who’ll return to FSU for his senior season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that high school catcher Kyle Teel is also withdrawing. Crews will honor his commitment to Louisiana State University, while Fields will play for the University of South Carolina and Teel will head to the University of Virginia. They’ll all be eligible for the 2023 draft.

Crews is the most notable of the bunch, landing 39th on McDaniel’s Top 150, 54th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 68th on MLB.com’s Top 200. Collazo writes that Crews ranked as the No. 2 prep player in the country entering last summer but had somewhat of a down year that caused his stock to dip a bit. As for the others, McDaniel calls Teel a potential third-round talent, while Collazo lists both Fields and Albert as “top-200 caliber” players, which suggests that neither was a lock to go in this year’s shortened draft.

It’s possible, if not likely, that additional players will remove themselves from consideration in 2020 between now and next Wednesday. Beyond the draft being capped at five rounds, this year’s slot values did not increase over their 2019 levels, and draft bonuses are being paid out in deferred fashion through 2022. Those who go undrafted, meanwhile, will be limited to $20K signing bonuses. High school players, in particular, could see appeal in playing college ball and bolstering their stock, given the elimination of the middle and late rounds of the event.

Chris Archer Undergoes Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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The Pirates announced Wednesday that right-hander Chris Archer underwent surgery yesterday to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome. The surprising, out-of-the-blue announcement rules Archer out for any games that are played in 2020. He’s expected to be ready for full competition in 2021, per the team’s press release, although his future with the club is far from certain at this point. The Pirates hold an $11MM club option ($250K buyout) over Archer for the 2021 season. The decision to undergo surgery came after “consulting with several leading vascular and orthopedic surgeons in recent weeks,” according to the Pirates.

The track record of pitchers coming back from TOS surgery, which typically involves the removal (or partial removal) of a rib in order to alleviate pressure on nerves in the shoulder/armpit area, is rather poor overall. Matt Harvey, Tyler Thornburg, Tyson Ross, Nate Karns, Matt Harrison, Carter Capps, Andrew Triggs and Kyle Zimmer are among the players to have undergone the surgery in recent years. None of that bunch has found much success upon returning. That said, recently retired righty Chris Young attributed TOS surgery to salvaging his career, and we’ve seen other success stories in Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Clayton Richard. It’s not an insurmountable hill to climb, but a TOS procedure is one of the more ominous arm operations a pitcher can undergo.

The revelation of a TOS diagnosis goes a long way toward explaining some of Archer’s recent struggles. From 2013-17, the righty pitched to a 3.60 ERA (3.45 FIP) with 9.7 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in a hitter-friendly American League East division. His numbers dipped a bit in 2018 but were generally serviceable. In 2019, however, Archer was lit up for a 5.19 ERA (5.02 FIP) with career-worst marks in BB/9 (4.1) and HR/9 (1.9). In retrospect, Archer’s 2019 season did end about a month early due to shoulder discomfort, and he was slowed by neck pain this spring prior to the league shutdown. However, while those symptoms are present in most TOS cases, most instances of neck/shoulder discomfort for pitchers don’t result in a TOS diagnosis.

Rather, much of the reason for Archer’s struggles in Pittsburgh were previously believed to have been due to the organization’s push to use a two-seamer/sinker that simply wasn’t an effective pitch for the right-hander. Archer had scrapped the two-seamer years prior, but the since-dismissed Pirates regime had a pitching philosophy that focused on incorporating sinkers into a pitcher’s repertoire. Archer finally jettisoned the pitch this past June and saw his strikeout and walk percentages immediately trend in positive directions, even though he continued to be unusually homer-prone (an issue that plagued many pitchers in last year’s juiced-ball season). The significant K-BB% gain was one of several reasons I profiled Archer as a rebound candidate back in March, but it’s now clear that there were more concerning causes for his struggles.

The generally poor track record of pitchers returning from TOS surgery presents the perennially low-spending Pirates with a particularly difficult decision this offseason. With teams losing enormous revenue amid the pandemic shutdown, it’s widely expected that free agents and arbitration-eligible players will feel the effects of those losses. Many in the game expect a depressed free-agent market and a spike in the number of non-tendered players. Archer’s club option is a net $10.75MM decision for the Pirates — a figure that represents nearly 18 percent of their would-be $60.7MM payroll in 2020. On the surface, it’s immensely hard to see owner Bob Nutting green-lighting such a commitment.

At the same time, the Pirates gave up Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and prospect Shane Baz to acquire Archer in a trade that now looks to be among the most regrettable swaps in franchise history. It’d be understandable if the club sought one final bite at the apple, so to speak, in hopes of a rebound that could help salvage some value from that deal, be it in the form of a quality performance from Archer or a summer 2021 trade that recouped some prospect capital.

Ownership and the new front-office regime, headed by GM Ben Cherington, will have several months to decide, but it’s certainly plausible that Archer has pitched his final game as a Pirate.

 

Replacing Lester And Quintana

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At present, the Cubs have only two starting pitchers under contract for the 2021 season: Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks.  The Cubs actually control Darvish through 2023 and Hendricks through ’24, so they’ll continue as rotation mainstays into their mid-30s.  The pair combined for 355 2/3 innings of 3.72 ball in 2019, and they’ll earn a total of $36MM in 2021.  It’s a good starting point, but the Cubs have to address 60% of their rotation before the 2021 season.

The Cubs’ Three Free Agents

Jon Lester’s time with the Cubs has been a clear success no matter what else happens, and he’ll never have to buy his own drink in Chicago.  The lefty will turn 37 prior to the ’21 season.  Is there a way he continues with the Cubs?  The easiest path would be through his current contract, which guarantees his $25MM mutual option for 2021 with 200 innings pitched in 2020.  Obviously Lester can’t reach that number in a shortened season, but such benchmarks would become prorated.  Meaning if MLB teams play an 81-game season, Lester’s goal would become 100 innings.

Lester has averaged 5.62 innings per start over the past three years, so in a half-season he’d either need to go deeper into games or make 18 starts to reach 100 innings.  In a recent chat with WEEI’s Rob Bradford, Lester talked about the need for pitchers to ramp up carefully to avoid injury, and it’s doubtful he’d push himself well past six innings per start just to get his option to vest.   I suppose in the most extreme example, MLB could follow through on its 50-game schedule threat, dropping Lester’s benchmark to about 62 innings.  He could theoretically pull that off in 10 starts, but it still seems physically risky to push to a level he hasn’t reached in years.

On the Cubs’ end, they likely prefer the $10MM buyout to locking Lester in for $25MM.  So new manager and former Lester battery-mate David Ross could encounter a delicate situation, where if Lester somehow kicks off a 2020 season going deeper into games, Ross’ bosses might push for earlier hooks.  Ultimately, though, I don’t expect Lester’s option to vest, in which case it’s a mutual one.  It’s rare that both sides exercise such an option, meaning Lester would become a free agent.  Working out a new short-term deal could be tricky, with the Cubs already on the hook for a significant $10MM buyout.

The Cubs also stand to lose Jose Quintana to free agency.  Quintana, who will turn 32 prior to next season, hasn’t quite gotten the results the Cubs hoped for after giving up Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for him in July 2017.  In his time with the Cubs, Q has posted a 4.23 ERA over 429 2/3 innings.  His impressive durability has remained intact, but the southpaw has dropped to about 5.4 innings per start since 2018.  By a results-based measure, Baseball Reference WAR, Quintana was at just 1.4 in 2019.  FanGraphs WAR, rooted in the Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stat, puts him at a healthy 3.5 – rewarding respectable strikeout, walk, and home run numbers but ignoring his allowing 10.1 hits per nine innings.

Wherever you land on WAR, it’s fair to say Quintana projects to be better than 2019’s 4.68 ERA.  170 solid innings of 4.30 ball might be a reasonable expectation moving forward.  It’s not clear yet on what the qualifying offer may look like if teams play a shortened 2020 season, so it’s impossible to say whether the Cubs would offer one.  My guess is that they would not make the offer, instead maintaining their financial flexibility.  That’s what they did with Cole Hamels last winter.

Though he’s penciled in as the Cubs’ fifth starter for 2020, Tyler Chatwood’s contract has been a bust for the Cubs, and he’ll surely be allowed to leave via free agency.

Internal Options

What options do the Cubs have to fill a rotation spot internally?  There’s Alec Mills, the soft-tossing righty who turns 29 in November.  Mills was a candidate for the Cubs’ fifth starter job this spring, so he’ll likely be in the mix next year as well.  Adbert Alzolay, 26 next March, would be in the running again as well.  Alzolay pitched 109 innings in total over the past two seasons, and Mills hasn’t been particularly successful even at Triple-A.  Both pitchers are depth options, and if they’re favorites for a 2021 rotation job, it will be because they’re affordable.

Lefty Brailyn Marquez is the crown jewel of the Cubs’ farm system, but he’s yet to pitch above High A and projects for a 2022 ETA.  Even that goal could be pushed back given the lack of a minor league season this year.  The Cubs do have a few starters with experience at Double-A or above in Cory Abbott, Tyson Miller, and Justin Steele, all of whom have ceilings at as back-end starters according to Baseball America.  The bottom line?  The Cubs need to add at least two starters from outside before next season, and possibly three.

Free Agency

After paying a $7.6MM luxury tax bill for 2019, the Cubs were looking to stay under the $208MM payroll mark in 2020 as a means of resetting the escalating penalties.  The Cubs won’t get a free reset if the 2020 season is canceled, but if games are played the club will likely maintain their goal of staying below the base tax threshold.  It’s also possible that the luxury tax will be temporarily reduced in some way as part of the current negotiation between MLB and the players’ union, to grease offseason spending.  If the Cubs don’t spend money during the 2020-21 offseason, I don’t expect the luxury tax to be the reason again.

Cubs owner Tom Ricketts recently claimed that “about 70 percent of the revenue that comes into our organization comes in on day of game.”  He also said, “We’ve already lost half that season, so in a best-case scenario, we’re looking at recovering maybe 20 percent of our total income.”  We’ll never know the real financial picture, but obviously the Cubs won’t make nearly as much money as they expected to in 2020.  It’s easy to see this being the justification for modest free agent spending.  Still, there almost has to be some money to spend if the salaries of Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood come off the books.

While some of the savings could be offset by arbitration raises for players like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras, it’s impossible to project what those arbitration raises will look like after a shortened season.  I imagine we’d be subjected to a fundamental disagreement across baseball on whether a half-season should result in a half-raise, but at least there’s already a mechanism in place to settle that with arbitration hearings.

The free agent market will feature roughly 30 credible options, many of whom the Cubs have already tried.  Aside from the trio mentioned above, there’s recent former Cubs Cole Hamels, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Arrieta, Brett Anderson, and Drew Smyly.  If the Cubs seek innings, they could make a run at Trevor Bauer, who famously seeks a one-year deal with a team that will let him pitch every fourth day.  With three vacancies, getting significant innings out of someone like Bauer could fit the Cubs better than an arguably better pitcher with a poor track record of durability, like James Paxton.

Though the market lacks a true ace, options abound with a solid group including Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, Robbie Ray, and Anthony DeSclafani.  Feel free to explore next winter’s starting pitcher market further with this FanGraphs leaderboard I created.  Even on a budget, the Cubs could plausibly target any of these guys.

The Trade Market

I’ve yet to see any concepts floated regarding in-season trading during a shortened 2020 campaign.  At the least we can assume players will be traded in the offseason and starting pitchers will be available.  The Cubs’ farm system is far from robust, but they do have minor league assets to consider trading.  There’s also a good chance of the team trading Kris Bryant, who becomes eligible for free agency after 2021.

Even the teams that were clearly rebuilding for 2020 could adjust course if they somehow make a fluke run in a shortened season with expanded playoffs.  Names like Matthew Boyd, Daniel Norris, Joe Musgrove, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, Jose Urena, and Nick Pivetta could reasonably be available, though we may be in for an unpredictable offseason.

Whatever path they choose, the Cubs seem likely to remake their rotation in a significant way for 2021.  What do you expect them to do?  Let us know in the comments.

Brewers Provide Updates On Corey Knebel, Others

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The Brewers had a wide slate of injured players during Spring Training — some expected to be key contributors in 2020 — and president of baseball operations David Stearns tells Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel that most are progressing well through their rehab.

Former closer Corey Knebel, who underwent Tommy John surgery last spring, is “getting pretty close” to being able to join the bullpen mix, per Stearns. He’s been on a throwing program and seemingly hasn’t had any setbacks, though Stearns noted that the final test is always to see how players fare in competitive settings with adrenaline flowing, and that obviously hasn’t been possible during the COVID-19 shutdown.

It’s easy to forget just how important Knebel was to the Brewers’ bullpen prior to his injury. Josh Hader’s breakout as MLB’s strikeout king has somewhat overshadowed Knebel, but the two form one of baseball’s best late-inning tandems when both are healthy. From 2017-18, Knebel gave the Brewers 151 1/3 frames of 2.54 ERA ball (2.74 FIP) with a ridiculous 14.7 K/9 and a 40.2 percent overall strikeout rate. He agreed to a $5.125MM salary this offseason — the same as in 2019 — and is under club control through the 2021 season.

Shortstop Luis Urias should be up to speed once play is able to resume, Haudricourt writes. Stearns notes that Urias was already close to getting into Spring Training games at the time of the league shutdown, and he’s of course now had nearly three additional months to mend from the fractured hamate bone he sustained during winter ball. Urias was acquired in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres. And while lefty Eric Lauer, the other player the Brewers landed in that swap, was slowed by shoulder troubles this spring, he’s healed up and should be in the rotation competition again when Spring Training 2.0 kicks off (assuming an agreement is reached).

Both players could well hold important roles for the Brewers in 2020 and for years to come. Onetime top prospect Orlando Arcia has yet to seize the everyday role at shortstop, opening the door for Urias — a touted prospect in his own right but one who the Padres felt comfortable dealing to upgrade in other areas. The 22-year-old Urias hasn’t hit in the Major yet but did turn in a ridiculous .315/.398/.600 slash in 73 Triple-A games last year (137 wRC+).

As for Lauer, the 2016 first-rounder was a quick riser to the Major, debuting in 2018. Since that time he’s tossed 261 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 38.9 percent grounder rate. He’s likely more of a mid-rotation or back-of-the-rotation arm, but for a Brewers club that uses its pitching staff in less conventional manners than many other clubs, there could be some ideas to maximize his effectiveness through the use of openers, limiting times through the order, etc. He’s controllable all the way through 2024, so whatever games are able to be played in 2020 will serve as a proving ground of sorts for Lauer. With Brett Anderson lined up for free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, there’s a clear path to innings in future seasons if Lauer or another young Brewers hurler impresses when play resumes.

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