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Tatis: “Nothing Happening Out There Yet” On Contract Extension

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An extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was reportedly one of the Padres’ offseason goals, though it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on that front.  In a radio interview on the Ben & Woods morning show (Twitter link), Tatis said he and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group would “talk about it if the Padres come with something, but there’s nothing happening out there yet.”

While Padres general manager A.J. Preller was “definitely not looking to comment publicly” on the status of negotiations during his own Ben & Woods interview (Twitter link), Preller indicated that the club did want to “explore every option and possibility” in terms of a potential long-term agreement with Tatis.  “We’ll sit down with him and his representatives when the time is right here, and kind of get a feel for where they’re at and see if there’s something there,” Preller said.

The fact that talks have seemingly yet to truly begin isn’t necessarily a sign that an extension couldn’t still happen before Opening Day or shortly into the season, as many teams don’t turn their attention to extension talks whatsoever until Spring Training.  Of course, there also isn’t any immediate urgency to get a deal done since Tatis is under team control through the 2024 season — the shortstop has two remaining years as a pre-arbitration player, and then three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Gaining some additional control (not to mention cost certainty) over Tatis would certainly be of interest to the Padres, as Tatis has one of the brightest futures of any player in the sport.  The 21-year-old is coming off a rookie season that saw him hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs over 372 plate appearances.  This was despite a pair of injured list stints due to a hamstring strain, and then a back strain that ended Tatis’ season in mid-August.

Should Tatis continue to perform at this high level over the next five years, he would be on track for free agency heading into his age-26 season and be in line for a monster payday on the open market, more than likely over the $400MM threshold.  San Diego knows a thing or two about spending big on a 26-year-old free agent, having just dropped $300MM on Manny Machado (another MVP Sports Group client, of note) last winter.  Locking up even one or two of Tatis’ free agent years as part of a long-term deal could end up being quite a bargain for the Padres, and by that same token, Tatis could be open to an extension that gives him financial security now, yet also doesn’t prevent him from free agency before his 30th birthday.

Some larger factors could also be at play, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) raised the possibility that Tatis and other younger players might hold off on extensions “with the idea that the next collective bargaining agreement will change the structures of club control and free agency.”  The current CBA expires in December 2021, so assuming a new labor agreement is in place prior to the start of the 2022 season, Tatis would still have three years remaining as a Padre and potentially a new range of contractual options to consider from a negotiating perspective.  Perhaps as a nod to how a new CBA would impact the status quo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that multiple teams were looking to lock up pre-arbitration players to extensions in the next few weeks.

Injury Notes: Alfaro, Harris, Verlander

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The latest on some player health situations from Spring Training…

  • Jorge Alfaro was a scratch from the Marlins’ lineup today due to left oblique tightness (Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald was among those to report the news).  Alfaro is day-to-day, though obviously any type of oblique issue is a concern, given how such injuries have been known to keep players out for weeks at a time depending on the severity.  On the plus side, Alfaro isn’t being sent for an MRI, according to reporter Craig Mish (via Twitter).  After a 2019 that saw Alfaro hit .262/.312/.425 with 18 homers over 465 PA while posting some subpar blocking and framing numbers, Alfaro is still considered to be Miami’s first-choice catcher heading into 2020, though the club did add Francisco Cervelli as a veteran complement this winter.
  • Newly-acquired Nationals reliever Will Harris “tweaked his abdomen” in the wake of a bullpen session yesterday, manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel and other media.  MRI results were negative, and Martinez said the team was opting “to be on the conservative side,” so it doesn’t sound as if the problem is overly serious.  Harris signed a three-year, $24MM free agent deal with the Nationals this winter, going from the Astros to the team that defeated them in last fall’s World Series.
  • Speaking of the Astros, Justin Verlander threw 30 pitches of a live batting practice rather than a scheduled Spring Training start against Washington today.  It would have been Verlander’s first official outing of the spring, but the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola) that he “wanted to be in a little more controlled environment” after suffering minor discomfort in his right groin earlier this week.  Verlander left the simulated two-inning session feeling good, and he is still scheduled to start Houston’s game against the Cardinals on Tuesday.  It is still unclear at to how this setback could impact Verlander’s usual preseason routine and his potential readiness for Opening Day, as “it all depends on where I’m at when I start in games,” the right-hander said.  “If there’s a lot of stuff I need to work on, then I don’t have a lot of time to do it.  But if I feel pretty good and my stuff’s working, it’s just about building my pitch count.  It’s kind of a TBD.”

Marcell Ozuna Discusses Cardinals, Qualifying Offer Decision

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Marcell Ozuna signed a one-year, $18MM deal with the Braves in January, after an offseason that saw the outfielder connected to multiple teams, including a potential reunion with the Cardinals.  Though he turned down the Cards’ one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, “if I knew before it was going to happen like this, I would have taken it,” Ozuna told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “But I wanted to make sure I had a chance (at a contract) for my career.”

As it happened, such an acceptable long-term offer didn’t materialize over the early weeks of the offseason, leading Ozuna and his representatives to pivot to the idea of a one-year deal and a quick return to free agency next winter without the burden of the draft pick compensation attached to his services for rejecting the QO.  (Players cannot be issued more than one qualifying offer in their career.)  Before taking Atlanta’s one-year deal, Ozuna turned several multi-year offers that were reportedly on the table, including a three-year/$50MM offer from the Reds.

There’s some obvious risk in Ozuna’s decision, as injury or a down year would erase his chances at landing another major long-term contract, and he’ll be re-entering the market heading into his age-30 season.  But, the outfielder is choosing to bet on himself to deliver a better platform year than in 2019, when he hit a solid but unspectacular .241/.328/.472 with 29 homers over 549 PA for the Cardinals, and missed over a month recovering from a fractured finger.

Ozuna made no secret of his desire to return to St. Louis, and after extensions talks proved fruitless last season, he and his agency (MDR Sports Management) remained in contact with the Cardinals “every time something moved” in his market, Ozuna said.

“If they offer a good offer, I would get it.  But they didn’t do it….I thought the Cardinals were going to offer something (early), but they didn’t do that after I rejected the qualifying offer,” Ozuna told Goold.  “So, I got patient. And I waited.  And I talked to my agent a lot of the time.  We were waiting — and then Atlanta was the team that gave me the opportunity for the one year and a good deal.  I had to do that.”

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings between Ozuna and the Cardinals, as he is “not disappointed” with how the winter played out.  “I feel like they did not give me the opportunity, so I had to walk away.  It’s business,” Ozuna said.

It ended up being a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals overall, who re-signed Adam Wainwright and Matt Wieters, and signed Kwang-Hyun Kim and Brad Miller but otherwise didn’t pull the trigger on any major moves, despite constant rumors.  The club’s one notable trade was a multi-player deal with the Rays that saw the Cardinals actually subtract from their Major League roster, moving Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay.  At the time of that trade, there was some thought that St. Louis could be making room in its outfield to potentially accommodate Ozuna, but instead, the Cards were simply subtracting from an outfield picture that is still pretty crowded as we approach Opening Day.

It can certainly be argued that Ozuna represents a more proven MLB asset than any of Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, and Ozuna also seems like a better option at this point than veteran Dexter Fowler, who is entering his age-34 season and is coming three inconsistent years for the Cards.  However, with so many outfielders in the mix, the Cardinals were seemingly more comfortable with counting on some members of this group to emerge than they were in offering Ozuna even a one-year deal.

It’s interesting to speculate on how the shape of the offseason (for the Braves, Cardinals, and the free agent market as a whole) would have been altered had Ozuna indeed taken the Cards’ qualifying offer.  There was some thought last fall that he could be a candidate to take the $17.8MM deal, as two other notable would-be free agents — Jose Abreu (White Sox) and Jake Odorizzi (Twins) did with their respective teams.  However, given that the Cardinals’ interest in retaining Ozuna seemed lukewarm at best, it could be that St. Louis might not have issued the QO whatsoever if they thought there was a truly serious chance that Ozuna would accept.

Dodgers Shut Down Jimmy Nelson’s Throwing Program

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Dodgers right-hander Jimmy Nelson has been shut down for the time being after experiencing a setback following yesterday’s bullpen session, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Nelson has been dealing with back and groin pain early in camp and felt renewed discomfort in his groin after the session. There’s no timetable set for him at present.

Nelson, 30, was a known health risk at the time he signed a heavily incentive-laden deal — a reality that was reflected both in his relatively modest $1.25MM guarantee and the $1MM bonus he’d receive simply for making the Opening Day roster. Nelson’s contract also contains $500K bonuses for spending 45 and 90 days on the active roster, as well as another $1.5MM of unlockable bonuses based on innings pitched. The deal’s low-cost, $2MM team option would become a $5MM mutual option if Nelson is on the mound enough, and the base of that option can also rise based on his innings totals.

Suffice it to say, the Dodgers knew that Nelson was a risky but high-upside signing when handing out that $1.25MM guarantee. The right-hander didn’t pitch at all in 2018 due to late-2017 shoulder surgery, and he was slowed by elbow and shoulder troubles in 2019. Overall, he’s pitched just 22 MLB innings since undergoing surgery in Sept. 2017.

A healthy Nelson, though, is a highly intriguing addition to any pitching staff. During that 2017 campaign, he racked up 175 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball (3.05 FIP) with 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 0.82 HR/9. A former second-round pick and top 100 MLB prospect, Nelson has a strong pedigree, terrific numbers in the upper minors and, in 2017, looked to be emerging as a high-quality arm with the Brewers.

Whether he’ll deliver on any of that potential with the Dodgers remains to be seen. For now, he’ll focus on rehabbing what he and the club hope to be minor issues in an effort to contribute in any way possible with his new club. The Dodgers currently boast a deep rotation mix with Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Alex Wood and Julio Urias likely in the top five. Ross Stripling, and top-notch prospects Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are among the plentiful depth options L.A. has cultivated, although May has been slowed by some injury troubles of his own and hasn’t thrown since the first day of camp. As such, Nelson seemed likelier to emerge as a bullpen option, but he’ll need to get back up to strength before he’s an option in either role.

Cubs’ Brad Wieck Undergoes Cardiac Ablation Procedure

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Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

The Cubs acquired Wieck, 28, in the trade that sent righty Carl Edwards Jr. to the Padres prior to last year’s trade deadline. The lefty didn’t make his Cubs debut until being brought to the big leagues as a September call-up, but he gave the team some reason for optimism when he held opponents to four runs on two hits and four walks with 18 strikeouts in 10 innings (3.60 ERA, 2.71 FIP).

Wieck’s previous work with the Padres had been unsightly (18 runs in 24 2/3 innings), but his ability to miss bats was on full display there as well. In total, Wieck has tossed 41 2/3 innings in the big leagues, and while his 4.97 ERA in that time isn’t much to look at, his 59-to-13 K/BB ratio is certainly intriguing. Notably, he’s fared better against righties (.287 wOBA) than lefties (.307) in his young career.

If Wieck isn’t ready to go to begin the season, Kyle Ryan becomes the Cubs’ lone plausible left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster. Prospect Justin Steele is on the 40-man but has yet to pitch above the Double-A level (where he struggled in 2019). The only other lefties on the 40-man roster are Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.

That could open the door for a non-roster invitee like Tyler Olson, Rex Brothers, Danny Hultzen or CD Pelham to get a look, although the Cubs could also just roll with a primarily right-handed relief corps early in the season as well. Wieck himself wasn’t a lock for a spot, given that he has a minor league option remaining, though his September showing put him in a good position.

Indians’ Emmanuel Clase Out 8-12 Weeks With Teres Major Strain

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The Indians received another injury blow Thursday, as an MRI revealed a moderate strain of the teres major muscle in hard-throwing young reliever Emmanuel Clase’s back (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). Clase, the main player Cleveland received in the trade that sent Corey Kluber to the Rangers, is expected to miss eight to 12 weeks of game activity.

If the injury sounds familiar to Indians fans, that’s because it’s the same muscle strain that sidelined right-hander Mike Clevinger for more than two months early in the 2019 season. Clevinger landed on the IL on April 9 and was able to make it back on the shorter end of that timetable — returning to action in just under 10 weeks’ time, on June 17.

The loss of Clase is tough for the Indians not only because it leaves them with only Delino DeShields Jr. as an immediate return for Kluber but also because Clase had been expected to be a key late-inning weapon for manager Terry Francona. Clase made his big league debut at just 21 years old last year, showing off a triple-digit sinker that helped him pitch to a 2.31 ERA with a 21-to-6 K/BB ratio and a whopping 60.6 percent ground-ball rate in 23 1/3 innings of work.

Clase has been heralded as a potential closer of the future in the Indians organization, although for the time being (once healthy), he’s likely to serve as a setup piece for All-Star closer Brad Hand. With Clase sidelined, the Indians will likely look to right-hander Nick Wittgren as the primary setup option for Hand. Other options in the ’pen include veteran lefty Oliver Perez, as well as right-handers Adam Cimber and Hunter Wood. There’s a fair bit of competition for the final few bullpen spots to begin the season — particularly now that Clase will begin the season on the 15-day injured list. (Remember: Major League Baseball upped the minimum IL stay for pitchers from 10 to 15 days, effective in 2020.)

While it’s a disheartening start to the beginning of Clase’s Indians tenure, he’ll have plenty of time to make an impact with his new club. Clase has yet to accrue a full year of MLB service time, though he’ll likely cross that threshold at some point in 2020. He’s under team control through at least the 2025 season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2022 season.

Chris Sale To Open Season On Injured List

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Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke says that star lefty Chris Sale won’t be ready for the start of the season, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports (Twitter links). This news doesn’t come as a surprise but is still a bit of a disappointment. It’s worth reminding that the recent slate of rule changes in MLB included pushing the minimum IL stay for pitchers back to 15 days.

Sale, whose return from elbow woes was interrupted by pneumonia, is said to be approximately two weeks behind the schedule of the remainder of the team’s starters. That provides a solid gauge as to the earliest possible point at which he’d be slotted back into the MLB rotation. Fortunately, the delay largely reflects the poorly timed illness, not any development of concern with regard to Sale’s throwing arm.

While the Sox would surely prefer to hand Sale the ball on Opening Day, the team can live with a few missed starts. That said, the organization needs to rack up every possible win if it hopes to surprise sans Mookie Betts. Even with the rival Yankees dealing with a host of worrisome health problems early in camp, the New York roster is loaded. The Rays look strong and there are several good Wild Card competitors from other divisions.

Despite the desire to turn Sale loose as soon as possible, it’s quite understandable that the Red Sox would elect a conservative course. The club is invested in him for the long run and has obviously not put all of its eggs in the 2020 basket.

Korean, Japanese Baseball Leagues Change Schedules Due To Coronavirus

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With much concern around the world regarding the spread of coronavirus, it was inevitable that there’d be an impact on the staging of sporting events. Asia’s two most significant baseball leagues are beginning to adjust their schedules to adapt to a situation in which large public gatherings would not be prudent.

The situation is especially concerning in Korea, which has seen the most cases of infection outside of China (where the disease originated). The Korea Baseball organization is responding by canceling its slate of planned pre-season games, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News reports.

For the KBO, this may only be the beginning. The league is still pondering what to do about the upcoming regular season. Delaying Opening Day (presently scheduled for March 28th) is presumably one possibility.

Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is also taking action, as the Associated Press reports, but it is taking a somewhat different initial step. The NPB’s spring contests will take place in empty stadiums. There’s still hope of launching the regular season as scheduled on March 20th, but that decision has yet to be made.

Keeping fans away from the spring contests was a “bitter decision,” in the words of the NPB commissioner, but it seems clear that tougher choices could still be to come. In addition to the baseball regular season, Tokyo is scheduled to host the Summer Olympics beginning in late July.

The handling of these difficult questions abroad could help inform Major League Baseball’s approach to the coronavirus situation — if and when it must do so. No doubt the league is already working through contingency plans that would avoid disruption to the extent possible while serving far more important public health imperatives.

8 AL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series exploring potential bounce-back candidates for 2020 began with a look at several AL West hitters hoping to rebound. Let’s stay in the division and focus on a group of talented pitchers who want to put disappointing seasons behind them…

Corey Kluber, RHP, Rangers: Kluber was the Rangers’ highest-profile offseason pickup and someone who’s now near the front of a revamped rotation, but the Indians decided the 33-year-old was expendable in the wake of a truncated 2019. In a limited number of innings (35 2/3), Kluber came nowhere near his two-time Cy Young form, notching a 5.80 ERA/4.06 FIP, and didn’t pitch past May 1 as a result of a broken forearm. Kluber did strike out almost 10 batters per nine when he was healthy enough to take the mound, but he offset that with some of the worst walk (3.79 BB/9), groundball (40 percent) and average fastball velocity (91.6 mph) marks of his career. With the Rangers holding an $18MM option or a $1MM buyout over him for 2021, this is an especially pivotal season for Kluber.

Jose Leclerc, RHP, Rangers: Leclerc was an absolute force during a breakout 2018, but his run prevention numbers took noticeable steps backward because of control problems. He lost his job as the Rangers’ closer at one point early in the year and wound up with a 4.33 ERA and 5.11 BB/9 in 68 2/3 innings. However, the 26-year-old did get a lot better after a terrible May, and he also concluded with 13.11 K/9 and a career-high 96.8 mph average fastball velocity (1.5 mph better than he recorded during his dream ’18).

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Angels: Considering their lack of high-end pitching additions in the offseason, it’s particularly important for the the Angels to get a healthy and better version of Heaney in 2020. Injuries victimized Heaney last year, holding him to 95 1/3 innings of 4.91 ERA/4.63 FIP ball. He also struggled to induce grounders (33.6 percent), which helped lead to an 18.3 percent home run-to-fly ball rate. But Heaney did log 11.14 K/9 against 2.83 BB/9 with a personal-best average fastball velocity (92.5 mph) and a career-high swinging-strike rate (14.1 percent).

Lou Trivino, RHP, Athletics: Trivino had an outstanding rookie year from the A’s bullpen in 2018, but with the clear exception of his 97 mph-plus velocity, just about everything went downhill last season. Fewer strikeouts and more walks meant far more runs against, with Trivino’s ERA/FIP shooting from the twos and threes to 5.25/4.53 over 60 frames during a year that ended early because of rib issues. And Trivino wasn’t as lucky as he was a rookie, as his batting average on balls in play and strand rate each went the wrong way. On a more encouraging note, the 28-year-old did rank near the top of the majors in a few notable Statcast categories, including average exit velocity against (85.5 mph).

Joakim Soria, RHP, Athletics: Soria was another A’s reliever who may not have produced as the team hoped he would have in 2019. The A’s signed Soria to a two-year, $15MM deal in December 2018 after a terrific season between the White Sox and Brewers, but for the most part, he couldn’t match what he did then. That’s not to say Soria was bad – he still posted a 4.30 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9, and his mean fastball velocity remained in the 93 mph range. Also, as with Trivino, Soria was something of a Statcast favorite, mostly earning good marks in that area.

Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Mariners: On the heels of an excellent tenure in his homeland of Japan, Kikuchi was a high-profile signing for the Mariners entering the 2019 campaign. They guaranteed Kikuchi $56MM on a contract that could max out at $109MM, but Year 1 of the deal probably didn’t go to the Mariners’ liking. In his first season in the majors, the 28-year-old recorded a 5.46 ERA/5.71 FIP – both among the worst in the game – across 161 2/3 innings. He relied primarily on a fastball-slider-curve mix, but all three of those offerings ranked among the least effective of their kind, per FanGraphs. Kikuchi did walk fewer than three hitters per nine, though his K/9 (6.46) placed sixth from the bottom out of 75 pitchers who accumulated at least 150 innings.

Carl Edwards Jr., RHP, Mariners: It wasn’t long ago that Edwards was a key component of the Cubs’ bullpen. As recently as 2018, he put up a 2.60 ERA/2.93 FIP with 11.6 K/9 across 52 innings, though that stellar production did come in spite of a 5.54 BB/9 and a lowly 28.9 percent groundball rate. Edwards found a way to dodge home runs then, as he gave them up on just 3.8 percent of the many fly balls he allowed, but he wasn’t able to do so during an abbreviated, shoulder injury-plagued 2019 in the majors. Edwards only totaled 17 innings between the Cubs and Padres (his other 17 2/3 frames came in Triple-A ball), and he gave up HRs 15 percent of the time en route to an abysmal 8.47 ERA/5.74 FIP. His control got worse along the way, as he surrendered almost seven walks per nine, and so did his strikeout rate. Edwards fanned a little over 10 hitters per nine, but his strikeout percentage fell almost six points from the prior year, while his swinging-strike rate dropped nearly 4 percent. Still, for $950K, you can’t fault the Mariners for rolling the dice.

Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP, Mariners: Hirano’s another low-cost bullpen flier for the Mariners, whom they inked for $1.6MM last month. No doubt, they’re hoping they get a version of Hirano closer to 2018 than ’19. The former Diamondback recorded a 2.44 ERA/3.69 FIP in his first year in the majors, but those numbers rose to 4.75 and 4.04, respectively, last season. Hirano also generated fewer ground balls, gave up more home runs and issued more walks, though he did see his K percentage go up almost 4 percent, finishing with 10.36 per nine. Like the Edwards signing, there’s little to no harm from the M’s perspective in taking a chance on a rebound.

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