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Rays Activate Ji-Man Choi, Option Ian Gibaut

By TC Zencka | July 13, 2019 at 11:35am CDT

The Tampa Bay Rays activated first baseman Ji-Man Choi ahead of today’s action, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Ian Gibaut has been optioned back to Durham. 

Choi missed the minimum ten games for a sprained left ankle. He is a key cog in the middle of the Rays lineup. With little margin for error in a top-heavy American League, the Rays could stand to get a little more production from him after a .266/.351/.423 first half. 

For now, manager Kevin Cash will rotate Choi with Nate Lowe, tweets Topkin. Lowe would most naturally be used as a roster replacement for Choi, but Cash is also prepared to use Lowe at third base, where he’s spent time in the minors. For now, they simply don’t want to take Lowe out of the lineup as the 24-year-old has hit .291/.355/.509 with 3 home runs in 15 games. That kind of production out of the first base spot would go a long way in helping the Rays secure a spot in this year’s playoffs. 

With the Rays, however, everything is fluid, and one day’s cleanup hitter could be back in Triple-A the next. Yandy Diaz also figures to play a prominent role in the corner infield rotation as the regular starter at third now that he’s discovered a power stroke (.278/.351/.477 on the year). Two other third base options remain on the shelf: Matt Duffy and Daniel Robertson are close enough to returning that each of them could be on rehab assignments by next week, per Topkin (Twitter links). 

Gibaut has a fairly high ceiling as a bullpen piece, but his first taste of the majors was short: one appearance, two innings, two earned runs, two walks, two strikeouts, one hit. 

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Daniel Robertson Ian Gibaut Ji-Man Choi Marc Topkin Matt Duffy Nate Lowe Yandy Diaz

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Injury Notes: Scherzer, Kluber, Hamels

By TC Zencka | July 13, 2019 at 10:22am CDT

Nationals ace Max Scherzer will push back his first post-All-Star-break start from Sunday to Tuesday due to back tightness, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. At 5.5 fWAR on the season, Scherzer trails only Mike Trout (6.4 fWAR) and Cody Bellinger (5.7 fWAR) while leading all pitchers by a fairly significant margin (Lance Lynn is next at 4.4 fWAR, while Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and Nats-teammate Stephen Strasburg follow with 3.4 fWAR). Scherzer has been beyond mortal over the last two months, winning seven consecutive starts over which he sports a 0.87 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to .157/.196/.249 at the dish (his 79:6 K:BB ratio isn’t half bad either). Needless to say, Mad Max is an essential cog in the Nationals revamped playoff hopes, no less so due to their lack of organizational depth. The scheduling adjustment should give Scherzer the extra rest he needs, as he and the team anticipate he will be ready by Tuesday’s opener at Baltimore. Let’s check in on the health of a couple other star hurlers…

  • Corey Kluber intends to pitch again for the Indians this summer, and he’s progressing as planned, per Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. Kluber is playing catch at a distance of 150 feet, and he looks like he’ll be ready for bullpen sessions soon. He’s not there yet, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel for Kluber, who has been out since May 1 with a fracture in his right forearm. The Indians hope he’ll have time to course correct after an aberrant seven starts in which he posted a 5.80 ERA (4.04 FIP).
  • Cole Hamels has begun playing catch as well, with the next steps being a team evaluation sometime today, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. Hamels hit the shelf in late June after scoring a 1.22 ERA for the month. On the whole, Hamels’ Chicago rejuvenation has kept pace into 2019 with a 6-3 record and 2.98 ERA (3.57 FIP). The Cubs need only replace Hamels spot in the rotation once until early August, at which point a return is conceivable. In the meantime, Tyler Chatwood has held the line in three spot starts, though the Braves hit him hard the last time he got the nod. Alec Mills, 27, has looked ripe as ever with a 2.72 ERA over his last eight starts in Triple-A, where he holds a 4.72 ERA for the season. Mills doesn’t figure as a long-term piece for the Cubs, but he’s more than adequate for this brand of spot start. Before you ask, no, Adbert Alzolay won’t take Hamels next time through the rotation, as his rest days won’t align with the Cubs’ need after starting last night’s game for Iowa.
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Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Notes Washington Nationals Alec Mills Cole Hamels Corey Kluber Max Scherzer Tyler Chatwood

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Mariners Notes: Adams, Bradford, Altavilla, King Felix, Long

By TC Zencka | July 13, 2019 at 8:42am CDT

The Mariners are no longer pacing the playoff race, but they’re just one behind the Yankees for the league lead in players on the injured list with 12, per MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler, who provides updates on a number of injured Mariners. The bullpen trio of Austin Adams, Chasen Bradford, and Dan Altavilla are all in a similar boat in that they shouldn’t require surgery, but none are throwing yet so their return dates remain nebulous. Adams, in particular, was having a fine season out of the Mariners pen after he was inexplicably traded to Seattle by the pen-starved Nationals. Adams has appeared in 21 games for Seattle with a 3.47 ERA and even better 2.21 FIP. His strikeout rates dazzled throughout his minor league career, and he’s kept it up in Seattle with an eye-catching 41 strikeouts in 23 ⅓ innings (15.8 K/9). Let’s check in on a couple other injured Mariners…

  • Felix Hernandez may return sooner than most, as he’s schedule to throw a bullpen on Monday, per Wexler. King Felix has been out since May 12. Health will be a necessary precursor for a King Felix return, as he struggled at the outset of the season with a 6.52 ERA across eight starts. He’ll have a role on the Mariners when he returns, but it’s been a steep decline for the Mariners legend, who’s pulling down just under $28MM this season and likely headed towards free agency at season’s end. 
  • Just as Shed Long was given an opportunity to get his season back on track, the music stopped again for the well-traveled prospect. Long came off the injured list for Thursday’s game in Tacoma only to injure his hand while playing second base, tweets the Rainiers’ broadcaster Mike Curto. Long will return to the injured list. When he’s been healthy, Long has fared better with Tacoma than with the big league club, though he showed promise at the ML level as well. As a Rainier, he’s slashing .279/.343/.466, versus .232/.329/.377 in 19 games as a Mariner. It’s been a tumultuous calendar year for long, who no doubt would appreciate a stretch of stability if he can get healthy. The Seattle roster should be able to accommodate giving him another crack at it if/when he sustains a measure of good health.
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Notes Seattle Mariners Austin Adams Chasen Bradford Dan Altavilla Felix Hernandez Shed Long

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Top 60 Trade Candidates At The All-Star Break

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | July 13, 2019 at 1:57am CDT

This is the first update to our annual ranking of top trade candidates in the run-up to the trade deadline, drawing from our power ranking approach to pending free agents. You can check out the original list (and review the methodology) here. Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Without further ado:

1-2. Will Smith, RP & Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants (Last Ranked: 1, 2): Yeah, the Giants are still within shouting distance of Wild Card position — but they still have the NL’s third-worst record. There are a host of teams ahead of them that look better on paper and have greater motivation to keep pressing to contend. The San Francisco club remains well-positioned to take advantage of holding arguably the two best rental chips on the market (along with other trade assets).

3. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (LR: 47): With the Mets collapsing since our last ranking, Wheeler flies up the board. We’ll respect the results of our recent survey and list MadBum first, but there are probably some teams that will be more interested in the younger, cheaper, harder-throwing New York hurler. By most standards, Wheeler looks much the same as he did in his eye-opening 2018 campaign. he has allowed a few more long balls and a greater batting average on balls in play while carrying a lower strand rate, which helps explain why his ERA has ballooned from 3.31 to 4.69. He has allowed more hard contact, but Wheeler’s velocity and strikeout rates have headed northward.

4-5. Ken Giles, RP & Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays (LR: INJ, 3): Both Jays hurlers are controlled through the 2020 season, and both are throwing well. In fact, “well” is an understatement for Giles, who has pitched to a sensational 1.45 ERA with better than 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Stroman’s numbers aren’t quite so gaudy, but the ground-ball machine is on pace for his third 200-inning season in the past four years while maintaining an ERA in the low 3.00s. Smith and Bumgarner might be the top starter/reliever rental combo on the market, but this duo is the best starter/reliever pair with control beyond the current season.

6. Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Tigers (LR: 8): We noted in our first ranking that the 27-year-old could move up the ladder if he kept up a hot streak, and he has done just that. He sprints into the rental-bat lead after a .354/.420/.532 run over his past twenty games. The return here probably won’t be that strong — even a red-hot J.D. Martinez netted the Tigers a lackluster return as a rental two summers ago — but Castellanos is among the game’s safest bets to be traded.

7-8. Sam Dyson (Giants) & Shane Greene (Tigers), RP (LR: 11, 12): We had this pair of quality relievers stashed a bit further down the list the last time around, owing to the fact that neither absolutely must be traded with another season of arbitration eligibility remaining. But that reasoning increasingly feels strained given the dearth of worthwhile rental relievers on the market this year. The quietly excellent Dyson doesn’t have quite the shiny ERA or recent save numbers of Greene, but he’s arguably as good or better. Both hurlers profile as groundball-heavy setup men for most contenders.

9. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers (LR: 9): There’s no rush or need for Detroit to move Boyd, who is controlled all the way through 2022, but interest in him is strong. Boyd’s strikeout rate has exploded in 2019, as he’s averaging 12 strikeouts against just 1.7 walks per nine innings pitched. He’s been plagued by the long ball of late — as has much of the league despite commissioner Rob Manfred’s claim of no intentional alterations to the ball — but Boyd is the best long-term arm that is likely to be available this month. We admittedly may use the term “controllable” too aggressively for players like Stroman, Giles and others signed for only one more season; Boyd is the epitome of a “controllable” trade asset, though.

10-11. Tony Watson (Giants) & Jake Diekman (Royals), RP (LR: 6, 7): Both of these pending-free-agent lefty specialists were tagged in their most recent outings, but teams will take broader views of their merits. They’re among the likeliest players to be dealt in the league.

12. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees (LR: NR): Every day the Yanks go without another outfielder coming down with yet another injury seems one day closer to the departure of Frazier. It’s easy to imagine Frazier going to a non-contender, but there could also be some interesting scenarios where he ends up on a club that still has hopes of reaching the postseason this year.

13-15. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Giants; Justin Smoak, 1B/DH, Blue Jays (LR: NR, 15, 4): As noted with regard to Wheeler, the free-falling Mets are likely to jettison any and all pricey vets on expiring deals. The resurgent Frazier, hitting .256/.340/.443 as of this writing, falls directly into that category, as he’s earning $9MM this season before a return to the open market. Over in San Francisco, the Kung Fu Panda has continued to rake since our last check-in on the game’s top trade chips. That’s less true of Smoak, who has been in a deep funk in recent weeks and hasn’t played up to expectations on the season as a whole. If you’re looking at the last few seasons on the whole, though, Smoak is easily the best bat of this trio of corner-infield rentals.

16. Mike Leake, SP, Mariners (LR: 22): Since last publishing this list, Leake has made two strong starts and two awful ones — highlighted (err… lowlighted?) by a seven-run drubbing at the hands of the Orioles. However, Leake has a superlative 21-to-1 K/BB ratio over 26 innings in that same stretch of time. He’s sitting on a 4.32 ERA and, in an era proliferated by five-inning starts, he’s averaging 6 1/3 frames per outing. Leake won’t front your rotation, but if you need durable innings and ground-balls to round out the starting five, he’s a solid option. The Cardinals are already paying part of his salary, and the Mariners would surely kick in some cash to get a deal finalized for Leake, who’s signed through 2020.

17-18. Mychal Givens, Orioles & Roenis Elias, Mariners, RP (LR: 17, NR): Call it a hunch, but the O’s seem well-positioned to move on Givens. He’s in his first year of arbitration with two more to go, so there’s no rush. And outwardly, the results make this an awkward time, as he has surrendered a home run-driven 4.76 ERA. But Givens has also racked up 20 strikeouts in his last 11 1/3 innings. He fits any budget and seems an obvious candidate to function in late innings for a contender. With the Orioles as far from contention as possible, I’m betting they’ll find a deal for their most talented relief pitcher. As for Elias, we examined him at length earlier. In short, he’s a solid, cheap reliever ($910K) controlled for two more seasons who currently plays on a rebuilding team that is run by Jerry Dipoto. Need we say more?

19. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres (LR: 5): With the Pads continuing to put out word that they’re chasing starting pitching, it’s feeling less and less likely that they’ll seriously pursue deals involving Yates. There’ll be a strong desire to keep him, both for this year and next, so long as the club is in the hunt for a Wild Card bid. But there’ll still be a pull towards a deal, as interest would be huge.

20. Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates: This is by no means a declaration that we think the Pirates will be sellers. To the contrary, they’re very much in the NL Central and Wild Card races at the moment. But the emergence of Bryan Reynolds simply gives Pittsburgh too many outfielders. It’s the quintessential “good problem to have.” The team’s reported preference is to move Dickerson, a pending free agent making $8.5MM, rather than one of its other outfielders. Doing so could fetch them some needed bullpen help or a back-of-the-rotation arm to help solidify the pitching staff. The Buccos could also just accept a nominal prospect return and then use the saved funds to help take on a pitcher.

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21-22. Hunter Renfroe & Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres (LR: 26, NR): San Diego is willing to consider scenarios involving the majority of its players (non-Tatis/Machado division). Renfroe, in particular, has drawn interest. Both are controllable for the foreseeable future and both would add some thump to any lineup in the game. The Padres aren’t necessarily going to sell, to be clear, but they’ve been hell-bent on getting some controllable pitching and have a known outfield surplus. Moving either burgeoning young slugger could help them achieve that goal by dealing from a surplus.

23. Whit Merrifield, INF/OF, Royals (LR: 10): Signed long-term at an affordable rate? Check. Producing well? Check. A fit in a contender’s lineup? He can play almost anywhere, so… check. Merrifield is hitting .306/.355/.495 in the first season of a four-year, $16.25MM deal and can play second base, first base or any outfield position. There’s basically nothing he doesn’t do well, and while the Royals needn’t feel any rush to trade the All-Star, the 30-year-old Merrifield will be on the tail end of his prime by the time Kansas City is competitive again.

24-25. Andrew Cashner, Orioles & Jason Vargas, Mets, SP (LR: 20, NR): Cashner is on a legitimately impressive run at the moment. Over his past five starts, he has allowed just five earned runs on 19 base hits and four walks over 32 frames. There are reasons for hesitation, too: he has only 18 strikeouts in that span, owes his 3.83 season ERA in part to a .256 BABIP, and stands out as a Statcast regression candidate (.288 wOBA-against vs. .340 xwOBA-against). Likewise, Vargas has bounced back from a putrid opening and now sits at a 3.77 ERA over 71 2/3 innings on the year. That’s rather remarkable given that the southpaw sits at just 85 mph with his two fastball offerings. ERA estimators do not provide much ground for optimism as to the sustainability of the results (4.37 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA), but teams in need of innings will take a hard look. These two hurlers are not only in somewhat similar positions from an on-field perspective, but also line up in terms of contracts. Both are earning $8MM this year and come with 2020 options. Cashner’s is for $10MM and does not include a buyout; Vargas’s can be exercised for $8MM or bought out for $2MM. (For a bonus overlap, each hurler has also made eyebrow raising comments of late. See here and here.)

26-27. Freddy Galvis & Eric Sogard, INF, Blue Jays (LR: 32, NR): Here we have some sure-handed veteran middle-infielders who have helped turn the Rogers Centre into the game’s leading launching pad. Galvis is up to 15 big flies on the year while Sogard has lofted nine dingers (albeit in questionably sustainable fashion). Both of these rental players are valued as dependable clubhouse members and fielders, so the power is in some sense a bonus. It’s not likely that the offers will be overwhelming, but contenders with a hole to plug will certainly be sending scouts to watch this pair. Galvis comes with the bonus of a rather reasonably priced $5.5MM club option ($1MM buyout).

28-29. Kole Calhoun, Angels & David Peralta, Diamondbacks, OF (LR: NR): These players would rank higher on this board but for the fact that their respective teams don’t seem sure to pack it in so long as they have a fighting chance at claiming a Wild Card. Still, they have to be considered as trade candidates given the unbridgeable division deficits at play. The left-handed-hitting Calhoun has put himself back on the map after a rough 2018 season. He has already matched his home run output from each of the prior two campaigns (19) and owns a career-high .237 isolated power mark. Calhoun isn’t exactly the only player in the league showing newfound pop, but the bottom line is he’s carrying a 109 wRC+, typically strong grades on his outfield glovework, and neutral platoon splits. He’s earning $10.5MM this year. The 2020 club option on Calhoun’s contract seems a bit pricey at $14MM (with a $1MM buyout). As for Peralta, another 31-year-old lefty bat with a reputation for good corner outfield defense, the picture is generally quite similar. He’s a bit cheaper at $7MM with another arb season remaining. Peralta also has a more impressive recent offensive track record owing to a big 2018 campaign. Perhaps the biggest difference is that Peralta’s current 112 wRC+ is attributed to a yawning platoon split. That doesn’t necessarily harm his marketability, as many contenders would be happy to welcome his bat to the lineup alongside a right-handed platoon partner.

30. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets (LR: NR): The Mets’ swan dive into oblivion has stoked the embers on the seemingly annual rumors of a Syndergaard swap. “Thor” and his flowing locks aren’t having the best of seasons, but he’s still averaging nearly 98 mph on his heater with a plus swinging-strike rate, above-average control and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s controlled for two years beyond 2019, so the price will be steep. Rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Syndergaard’s former agent, listened to offers over the winter even as he exuded confidence over his team’s 2019 outlook. Now that the rest of the league has stomped out the Mets’ 2019 hopes, there’s no reason to think he won’t at least entertain offers once again — even if he’s giving public signals that the team doesn’t expect move the exceptionally talented right-hander.

31. Mike Minor, SP, Rangers (LR: 31): So … Minor is still throwing the ball great and the Rangers are still hanging in the postseason mix. It remains awfully difficult to know how this’ll all turn out. The course of play over the coming weeks could dictate the outcome, or perhaps the willingness of other teams to deal quality rotation pieces will shape the market. With the Rangers keeping the door open to a deal involving Minor, we’ll do the same and rank him in the same exact place we put him on the first list.

32-33. Zack Greinke & Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks (LR: NR): The good news for the D-backs is that they’re only 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The bad news is that they’re buried in their division, and six other teams are within five games of that same Wild Card berth. Arizona entered the season in a transitional year and has outpaced expectations, which could prompt them to add some pieces this summer. It’s also possible that even as they seek to add some low-cost upgrades, they also move some current big leaguers for long-term benefit. And, if the Snakes endure a losing streak in the next three weeks, it’s a safe bet that they’ll more aggressively look to trim future payroll while simultaneously bolstering the farm.

34. Trevor Bauer, SP, Indians (LR: 49): Cleveland has surged back up the standings to make the AL Central race interesting again. They’ll also be facing payroll constraints once again in the offseason, though, which has prompted speculation that the Tribe could deal Bauer for some pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help. Flipping Bauer for a younger outfielder who could be plugged directly into the lineup wouldn’t necessarily be “selling” in the truest sense, and it’d proactively address some offseason bookkeeping that looms on the horizon. The Indians have a pivotal series against the division-leading Twins beginning tonight, and the outcome of that three-game set could prove critical in determining the team’s deadline approach.

35. Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles (LR: 25): Mancini would be higher if he were a lock to be moved, but it’ll be tough for rookie GM Mike Elias to step in and immediately trade the new face of the franchise when he’s still controlled through 2022. Add in the fact that corner bats have received generally underwhelming returns on the trade market in recent seasons, and the task is even taller. Perhaps that remaining control would allow Elias & Co. to coax an offer that handily tops recent packages for corner outfielders and first basemen, but in a world where C.J. Cron was waived after a 30-homer season, it’s tough to see Mancini fetching a godfather offer — strong as his bat may be. The O’s are reportedly “open to anything” on Mancini, though, so a deal can’t be totally ruled out.

36-37. Kevin Pillar (Giants) & Jarrod Dyson (Diamondbacks), OF (LR: 42, NR): Need a rental fourth outfielder capable of playing center? Pillar offers a right-handed bat who can do just that, while Dyson brings a left-handed bat to the table. Pillar is on a well-timed hot streak and generates most of his offensive contributions through decent power numbers. Dyson, meanwhile, is practically devoid of pop but still possesses one of baseball’s best sets of wheels at 34 years of age.

38-40. Martin Maldonado (Royals), Stephen Vogt (Giants) & Alex Avila (Diamondbacks), C (LR: NR): No need for a center fielder? Can we interest you in a reserve backstop, then? Maldonado is among the game’s premier defenders behind the dish, making him the prototypical defensive-minded backup. (That’s a nice way of saying, ahem, don’t expect him to hit.) Neither Avila nor Vogt can match his defensive chops, but they’re both hitting pretty well. Contractually speaking, all three are rentals.

41-44. Craig Stammen (Padres), Greg Holland (Diamondbacks), Sergio Romo (Marlins) & Daniel Hudson (Blue Jays), RP (LR: 27, NR, NR, NR): Or perhaps you need a quaffable veteran rent-a-reliever? Holland and Romo have been functioning as closers, though the former has had substantial troubles of late. It’s unlikely that anyone from this quartet would become one of a new team’s best relievers, but there’s still value in upgrading the middle relief corps. Plus, no one from this group has a higher base salary than Holland’s $3.25MM, so they’re all plenty affordable.

45. Alex Colome, RP, White Sox (LR: 16): In the first list, we had Colome bunched with Givens. He’s still getting the job done. So why the drop? For one thing, Colome has a shrug-inducing 6:5 K/BB ratio in 13 frames since the start of June. For another, the White Sox are close enough to the Wild Card picture to want to keep their closer. It’s also worth wondering just how highly he’d be valued. Colome’s 2.02 ERA and 20 saves look nice, but he’s averaged just 6.8 K/9 and benefited from a ridiculous .124 BABIP. Colome’s save total will probably push his salary north of $10MM next year in arbitration, and that’s a hefty price for a reliever with some questionable peripheral numbers.

46-52. Dee Gordon, 2B, Mariners; Danny Duffy, SP, Royals; Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants; Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals; Mark Melancon, RP, Giants; Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants; Wil Myers, OF/1B, Padres (LR: 21, 22, 23, 24, 36, 37, 40, 41): For the sake of efficiency, we’re going to consolidate some rather expensive veterans here into their own grouping. Frankly, the broad strokes are similar in all cases. There’s reason to think that each of these players is still a useful big leaguer, but they’re also all owed far more than they’re worth.

53-54. Wilson Ramos, C & Justin Wilson, RP, Mets (LR: NR): Each of these mid-range free agent signees is a candidate to be moved if the New York org decides it wants to shed some extra salary (this year and next) and there’s a willing buyer. Ramos has hit well but defensive questions have only gotten louder. Wilson is still topping 95 mph from the left side, but has missed much of the season with injury. It’s still hard to know where the market will go on these two players, but both certainly will be considered.

55-56. Tim Beckham (Mariners) & Jonathan Villar (Orioles), INF (LR: 34, 35): Here we have a pair of reasonably youthful middle infielders who come with affordable control for 2020. Each has had his share of ups and downs over the years, but has turned in league-average hitting in extended action this year.

57-58. Reyes Moronta (Giants) & Joe Jimenez (Tigers) (LR: NR): Future closer or immediate trade chip? These young hurlers’ rebuilding teams will need to decide, now or in the near-term. Both have the big heater and strikeout numbers needed to wear the closer’s crown. Neither will reach arbitration eligibility until 2021. Though Moronta has a better track record of results, Jimenez is younger and comes with a loftier current swinging-strike rate. Teams that want these hurlers will need to come with significant offers, but there’s good reason to believe their respective organizations will be willing to turn them into prospects if the offer is significant enough.

59. Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins (LR: NR): We’re told that the Fish don’t want to deal Smith. But the club can’t rule out the possibility entirely, not when the breakout lefty has reached a value point that seemed all but impossible when he was acquired. Smith is already closing in on his 28th birthday, so he’s not exceptionally youthful. That dings his value to a Miami organization that is one of the furthest from contention in all of baseball. Meanwhile, even marginal contenders can fancy themselves pursuers of Smith, who won’t even reach arbitration until 2021. Entering his outing today, Smith carried a 3.50 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He’s sporting a strong 14.6% swinging-strike rate and 35.3% chase rate. While he’s struggling a bit with the long ball — and who isn’t? — Statcast doesn’t exhibit any glaring reason to worry about regression in terms of batted balls. The total package is quite appealing, blending the potential for immediate impact with a hefty dose of long-term value. Come to think of it, Smith is almost beginning to remind us of another long-unheralded, late-developing NL East hurler …

60. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets (LR: NR): With Max Scherzer out of the deadline picture (not that he was ever really in it), deGrom is the most alluring conceivable starting pitcher for a win-now team. The contract is big but still fairly affordable for a big-market team; the fact that deGrom can be controlled for another four years ultimately boosts his value. Though he hasn’t matched his 2018 season for the ages, deGrom is somehow still adding velocity at 31 years of age and is unquestionably still one of the game’s very best pitchers. Most respondents in a recent MLBTR poll advocated for the Mets to listen to offers, only moving deGrom if they can secure a massive haul in return. That seems a sensible approach. The mere possibility of a blockbuster earns deGrom the final spot on this list, even if it’s rather unlikely he’ll be moved.

Falling Off

Tanner Roark, David Hernandez, Jared Hughes, Raisel Iglesias & Derek Dietrich (Reds); Jordan Lyles, Melky Cabrera, Francisco Liriano &  Felipe Vazquez (Pirates); Billy Hamilton & Alex Gordon (Royals); Jose Abreu (White Sox); Adam Duvall (Braves); Brad Hand (Indians); Anthony Rendon (Nationals)

Injured List

Mitch Haniger (Mariners), Jose Urena & Martin Prado (Marlins), Josh Harrison & Tyson Ross (Tigers), Alex Wood (Reds), Tommy La Stella & Jonathan Lucroy (Angels)

Watch List

Blue Jays: Joe Biagini, Aaron Sanchez, David Phelps

Orioles: Shawn Armstrong, Dylan Bundy

Tigers: Jordy Mercer, Niko Goodrum, JaCoby Jones, Gordon Beckham, Jordan Zimmermann, Blaine Hardy

Royals: Wily Peralta, Homer Bailey, Lucas Duda, Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Scott Barlow, Jakob Junis

Mariners: Domingo Santana, Cory Gearrin, Wade LeBlanc

Marlins: Neil Walker, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen

Giants: Joe Panik, Drew Pomeranz, Derek Holland, Trevor Gott

White Sox: Kelvin Herrera, Yolmer Sanchez, Welington Castillo, Ivan Nova, Evan Marshall, James McCann

Padres: Manuel Margot, Robbie Erlin

Mets: Edwin Diaz, Adeiny Hechavarria, Seth Lugo, Michael Conforto

Angels: Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez, Justin Anderson

Diamondbacks: Adam Jones, Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Yoshihisa Hirano, Merrill Kelly

Cubs: Ian Happ

Rockies: Jake McGee, Chris Iannetta

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MLBTR Originals Top Trade Deadline Candidates

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Brodie Van Wagenen Gives Mickey Callaway Vote Of Confidence

By Connor Byrne | July 13, 2019 at 1:28am CDT

A bleak season atop the Mets’ dugout continued Friday for second-year manager Mickey Callaway. His club opened the second half of the season with yet another forgettable performance in an 8-4 loss to the Marlins – the lone National League team with a worse record than New York’s. The Mets are an abysmal 40-51 after their latest defeat, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen informed Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters beforehand that he “absolutely” expects Callaway to stay on through the season.

“Mickey has done a difficult job very well,” said Van Wagenen, who added he’s “very satisfied” that Callaway “shows up to work every day with a passion to win and a desire to work and get better.” He also lauded Callaway for the way he has kept the clubhouse together during what “has not been an easy year for us.”

This is the second time this season that Van Wagenen has issued Callaway a public vote of confidence. The executive did the same back on May 20 in response to reports suggesting Callaway was on the hot seat. There have been some obvious changes to the Mets’ circumstances since then, though. For starters, while the Mets’ record was a subpar 21-25 when Van Wagenen came out in support of Callaway two months ago, they were still a manageable three games back of the National League East lead. But the Mets have continued their downward spiral dating back to then, having gone 19-26. They’re now an insurmountable 14 1/2 games back of the division-leading Braves and a potentially out-of-reach seven behind a wild-card spot.

Off the field, we’re only a week removed from Van Wagenen unleashing a tirade at the expense of the Mets’ coaching staff. Disgusted with another loss, Van Wagenen reportedly “lashed out” at the coaches, threw a chair and ordered Callaway to go conduct his “[expletive] press conference.”

It wouldn’t have been unreasonable a week ago to believe Callaway would lose his job this season. Now, if we’re to believe Van Wagenen, that’s not going to happen. Whether the Mets keep or fire Callaway, they have a multitude of other problems Van Wagenen will somehow need to fix in order for the team to escape the league’s cellar.

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New York Mets Mickey Callaway

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Retirements: Stewart, Nieuwenhuis

By Connor Byrne | July 13, 2019 at 1:01am CDT

A couple of former role players are leaving the game…

  • Longtime catcher Chris Stewart has called it quits, Andy Martino of SNY tweets. Stewart entered the pros as a 12th-round pick of the White Sox in 2001 and went on to play with them as well as the Rangers, Yankees, Padres, Giants, Pirates, Braves and Diamondbacks from 2006-18. Although Stewart hit just .230/.297/.291 with nine home runs in 1,334 major league plate appearances, he earned the trust of plenty of teams behind the plate. The 37-year-old threw out 28 percent of would-be base stealers and garnered high marks from Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
  • Long Island Ducks outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis has also retired, the team announced. The former Met, 31, gave up baseball on the four-year anniversary of his personal masterpiece – a three-home run game against the Diamondbacks on July 12, 2015. Nieuwenheis was a third-round pick of the Mets in 2008 who also went on to see MLB action with the Brewers and Angels. He combined to hit .221/.311/.384 with 31 homers and 20 stolen bases over 1,116 plate appearances from 2012-17. Nieuwenhuis spent a greater amount of time at the Triple-A level, batting .253/.348/.441 with 49 HRs and 27 steals in 1,616 PA.
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Notes Chris Stewart Kirk Nieuwenhuis Retirement

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Yankees To Activate Luke Voit; Latest On Stanton, Betances

By Connor Byrne | July 13, 2019 at 12:35am CDT

The Yankees will activate first baseman Luke Voit from the 10-day injured list Saturday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. The club cleared room for Voit on Friday by optioning infielder Breyvic Valera to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

It’s not apparent from looking at the Yankees’ major league-best 58-31 record, but long-term injuries to core players have haunted them all season. Voit, however, is returning to their lineup in short order after going to the IL on July 2 (retroactive to June 30) with an abdominal strain. Before that, Voit was continuing his emerge as one of the majors’ best offensive first basemen with a .280/.393/.509 line and 17 home runs in 349 plate appearances. The Yankees primarily relied on Edwin Encarnacion and DJ LeMahieu at first in Voit’s absence.

Unfortunately for New York, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton won’t return to its lineup in the near future. Stanton, who has dealt with a series of injuries this year and played in just nine games, went back to the IL on June 26 with a PCL strain in his right knee. At the time, general manager Brian Cashman cast doubt on the possibility of Stanton returning in July. Stanton still hasn’t resumed baseball activities, according to Hoch, so a July return does indeed look out of the question. The Yankees have gotten through Stanton’s latest injury with the aid of a hot streak from his replacement in left field, Brett Gardner.

While the Yankees’ offense has barely had Stanton this season, the team’s bullpen hasn’t gotten a single pitch from right-hander Dellin Betances. The four-time All-Star setup man first dealt with a bone spur in his shoulder before suffering a lat injury, though there is progress to report: Betances is slated to begin a throwing program Monday, per Hoch. The solid season-long performances of Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Tommy Kahnle have helped the Yankees build a sturdy bridge to closer Aroldis Chapman even without Betances.

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New York Yankees Dellin Betances Giancarlo Stanton Luke Voit

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Minor MLB Transactions: 7/12/19

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 11:58pm CDT

Keeping track of the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Giants have signed infielder Cristhian Adames to a minor league contract, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Adames had been with the Cubs until this past Monday, when they released him after injuries limited him to 75 plate appearances with their Triple-A affiliate. Also a former Rockie and Marlin, the 27-year-old Adames has hit a respectable .288/.343/.423 in 1,582 trips to the plate at the minors’ top level. On the other hand, Adames put together a miserable .206/.283/.278 line in 343 big league PA with the Rockies from 2014-17.
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Notes San Francisco Giants Transactions Cristhian Adames

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Brodie Van Wagenen Addresses Mets’ Struggles, Deadline Plans

By Jeff Todd | July 12, 2019 at 10:52pm CDT

Embattled Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen discussed his team’s dire straits today with the media. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News and Mike Puma of the New York Post were among those to round up the choicest quotes. MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola approached it from a bit of a different perspective, focusing on the forward-looking aspects of Van Wagenen’s chat.

With the Mets all but buried in the standings, Van Wagenen faced the music on his “come get us” pre-season bravado with respect to the rest of the NL East contenders. As he put it today, “they came and got us.”

That may put a satisfactory wrap on a memorable quote, though it also glosses over some of the actual causes of the Mets’ failings by suggesting their rivals simply got the better of them. Van Wagenen’s claim that the club was the favorite in the division wasn’t just an attention-grabbing statement worthy of skepticism; it also seemingly represented a key driving factor for the team’s decisionmaking over his first offseason at the helm.

Van Wagenen did accept blame for how things have gone, though he did so in a curious manner, deflecting even as he absorbed culpability. “I wouldn’t want to put the blame on players or coaches or scouts or anybody of that matter,” he said, “but I can tell you that this team we built was one of unified vision and it hasn’t worked, so I accept my responsibility in that capacity as well.” Likewise, he seemingly minimized the role of big-picture roster-building when he cited a failure to “do enough of the little things right as a team.”

At the end of the day, the top roster-building decisionmakers have to own their missteps. There are quite often intervening factors that do help explain unanticipated struggles, to be sure. But it’s hard to argue that unforeseeable or simply unlucky happenings have really driven the disaster in Queens this season — Jed Lowrie aside, at least. (The oft-injured veteran has yet to play. He is now said to be dealing with a calf injury, with no apparent target for a return.)

The single major blunder, to this point, has been Van Wagenen’s signature trade — the swap that brought in ace closer Edwin Diaz and highly compensated veteran Robinson Cano. It seemed a highly questionable decision at the time, albeit one that would almost certainly deliver short-term rewards. Instead, both players have struggled mightily, and rather unexpectedly, even as the key prospects sent in the trade have prospered.

“You have to look at where we were and where we are now,” Van Wagenen said when asked whether he has had second thoughts on the deal. He noted that Diaz and Cano still have the remainder of the season to “change the narrative.”

Once again, this explanation seems to miss the mark. The real problem isn’t (just) the ensuing struggles of those players. It’s the series of conceptual failings that led to the deal in the first place. First, the deal was rough for the Mets from a value standpoint, given the huge amount of Cano’s contract the team absorbed. Even assuming that away, it was legitimately questionable whether the Mets had a strong enough roster to justify that kind of outlay for such clearly win-now players (a closer and an aging second baseman). Beyond all that, there were quite possibly better ways to utilize the team’s resources — a dedicated pursuit of Manny Machado, increased offer to Yasmani Grandal, etc. — even in a scenario in which the team pushed for contention.

The point here isn’t to lay on the blame. Van Wagenen had a distinctly difficult task as an agent-turned-GM who was trying (with limited resources) to turn around a roster that had struggled in the prior season. That was the strategic direction of ownership — even if the new GM pitched it in his interviews. And it wasn’t a ridiculous thing to attempt. It’s just that the undertaking came with obvious risks, especially in the manner it was pursued, and several of the downside scenarios have come to fruition — none moreso than the big-picture one, in which the Mets are left yet again facing a need to pursue some amount of rebuilding or reloading while also carrying a series of player assets that hints towards near-term contention.

It was a tricky spot; it is now, all the more. Van Wagenen will need to adapt on the fly. So, where do the Mets go from here?

Most notably, Van Wagenen slammed on the brakes so far as expectations are concerned. In mid-June, Van Wagenen said that the Mets were “right where we wanted to be.” Now, about a month later? “In the second half of the year I think we have low expectations for what we can be,” he said bluntly. Rather than posturing as front-runners, says the GM, the Mets will fashion themselves as “underdogs” who’ll “try to prove some people wrong this year and certainly try to improve on it next year.” It’s a starkly different look from an executive who said before the season, upon his latest hot stove conquest: “This action, rather than our inaction, should demonstrate to the fans that we say what we do and we do what we say.”

Without any pretense to immediate contention, the Mets can turn to making the best of the roster they have compiled. “We have to face our reality, to some degree, about where we are in the standings,” said Van Wagenen. Rental players — Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas (who does have an option remaining) — seem clearly to be on the block. But the question remains whether the Mets will also “face reality” with respect to their broader organizational position, which is certainly a question that can’t be answered by Van Wagenen alone.

Van Wagenen says the Mets will be “open-minded, … thoughtful and measured” at the deadline, though that characterization obviously doesn’t offer much in the way of specific direction. He was clear that he does not “anticipate being in a situation where we’d have a total teardown rebuild.” He also says he “fully expect[s]” the team’s best veterans with future contract control “to be on our roster” past the trade deadline — though he didn’t rule out deals of star pitchers Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The front office has been bombarded with phone calls of late, adds Van Wagenen. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether any of those chats lead to creative scenarios in which it makes sense for the Mets to move some of their best and best-known players.

If there’s a definitive statement on the Mets’ near-term approach to be found in Van Wagenen’s words today, it probably resides in this passage:

“The reason why we put some chips on the table this year is because we felt like we had a core of starting pitchers from which we could build around. … Right now, as we look at the halfway point, we feel like we have a core going forward, just maybe a different core. … We have a core from which we can compete, and we’ll look at our moves with both win now or certainly win in 2020 [perspectives] and looking beyond that.”

You can probably read that to mean just about whatever you want it to, but it certainly sounds as if Van Wagenen sees a vision of the future. Perhaps it suggests the club’s ace hurlers are now open to be moved … or that they are part of the “different core.” If there’s a core in place, one might think that a big push for 2020 would yet make sense … yet Van Wagenen was careful to note that the team needs to be “looking beyond that” point in time.

Whatever the precise core concept — it presumably features Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil at a minimum — there’ll be an awfully tough path to navigate. Whether they pursue immediate contention or some manner of rebuilding, the Mets face a tricky financial situation in 2020, when they owe about $115MM to players (not including David Wright) even before accounting for raises to Syndergaard, Diaz, Conforto, Steven Matz, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and a few others. For a team that hasn’t yet cracked $160MM in payroll to open a given season, it’ll be challenging to add enough to spur a turnaround. And with so much already on the books, no small part of it (Cano, Lowrie, Jeurys Familia, Yoenis Cespedes) largely immovable, it’ll also be tough to embark upon a dedicated rebuilding effort.

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New York Mets Newsstand Brodie Van Wagenen Edwin Diaz Jed Lowrie Noah Syndergaard

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Andy MacPhail Discusses Phillies’ Deadline Approach

By Connor Byrne | July 12, 2019 at 10:15pm CDT

Philadelphia came into 2019 mired in a seven-year playoff drought, but an aggressive winter made the club a popular pick to turn around its fortunes this season. With the second half of the campaign now underway, the good news for the Phillies is that they are in possession of a playoff spot. The bad: It’s by the slimmest of margins.

Owners of an underwhelming 47-44 record and losers of 22 of 36 – including a 4-0 home defeat against the Nationals on Friday – the Phillies are tied with the Brewers for the NL’s last wild-card position. Earning a place in a one-game playoff appears to be Philly’s most realistic path to the postseason, as the team’s sputtering and sitting a lofty seven back of the first-place Braves in the NL East.

The Phillies have obvious weak points, including throughout their pitching staff, but it doesn’t seem they’re lining up as aggressive buyers with the July 31 trade deadline approaching. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail spoke about the Philllies’ status with Todd Zolecki of MLB.com and other reporters Friday, admitting he and his front office cohorts “don’t believe” the roster’s one trade away from turning into a World Series winner.

MacPhail acknowledged that an extremely impressive run of baseball to end July could sway him toward a bolder deadline approach. As of now, though, MacPhail’s expecting “to be a little judicious and careful about what talent’s walking out the door” in trades. That suggests MacPhail and general manager Matt Klentak won’t be dealing any of the Phillies’ very best prospects away this summer, at least not for short-term help. However, the Phillies are willing to take advantage of their financial clout to better their roster. They could land upgrades by taking on salary in exchange for giving up “lesser talent,” as Zolecki writes. MacPhail certainly isn’t ruling it out.

“Our ownership has been pretty clear, and they’ve demonstrated by their actions, that salary is not something that is going to be … it has to make some sense, but that’s not going to be something that’s going to hold us back,” MacPhail said.

While it remains to be seen what the Phillies will do at the deadline, their 2019 is looking a bit too similar to their disappointing 2018 right now. The Phillies got off to a solid start then, even sitting atop the NL East from July 6 through Aug. 12, before petering out and finishing two games below .500. Acquiring several veteran stopgaps (Wilson Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour, Jose Bautista and others) couldn’t save the Phillies’ season a year ago. We’ll find out in the next two-plus weeks the caliber of help they’ll bring in this summer in an effort to return to the postseason.

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Philadelphia Phillies

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