Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, George Springer, and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
As first-year arbitration awards continue to grow with the revenue and payrolls in baseball today, they provide higher platforms through which arbitration records in later years can be more easily broken. Mookie Betts will go through the arbitration process one more time after earning $20.1MM including bonuses during his penultimate year through the arb process, putting him in line to potentially break Nolan Arenado’s record of $26MM his last time through arbitration. Betts’ potential salary is high enough that he has frequently been featured in trade rumors as the Red Sox seek to reset themselves below the luxury tax threshold in 2020.
Either way, Betts’ case is going to simultaneously take a large chunk of someone’s payroll while also being a relative bargain to similarly-producing free agents. After a historic season in 2018 in which Betts hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, and racked up an amazing slash line of .346/.438/.640, Betts had a slightly more pedestrian year — by his standards — in 2019. Betts batted .295 and hit 29 home runs while stealing 16 bases, while recording 80 RBI and a league-leading 135 runs scored.
The model uses the generally accurate fact that players’ salaries in subsequent years in arbitration are determined as raises based on their platform year production alone. So while Betts may not have had a historic season, he does have a good case for breaking Arenado’s record, thanks to Betts’ $20.1MM salary in 2019. My model projects a $7.6MM raise for 2020, which would land the Red Sox outfielder at $27.7MM.
Even coming down to earth in 2019, Betts still put up rare numbers. There are very few hitters who have reached their third year of arbitration eligibility with at least 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases in their platform year — in the last five years, only four players hit both plateaus. Charlie Blackmon got a $6.7MM raise in 2018 after hitting .331 with 37 homers, 104 RBI, and 14 steals the prior year.
Although Blackmon’s batting average obviously bested Betts’ .295, the other three hitters had far lower averages. Todd Frazier hit .225 with 40 HR, 98 RBI, and 15 steals and got just a $3.75MM raise in 2017. Didi Gregorius hit .268/27/86 with 10 stolen bases and got a $3.5MM raise last year, while Aaron Hicks hit .248/27/79 with 11 stolen bases last year en route to a $3.2MM raise. Still, the Red Sox could argue that Betts may deserve a smaller bump over Frazier, Gregorius, and Hicks, and potentially less than Blackmon’s $6.7MM.
Obviously, we are limiting the potential list of comparables by requiring double-digit stolen bases. A couple more recent names (both third basemen) emerge when dropping that requirement. Anthony Rendon got a $6.5MM raise in 2018 after putting up a solid .301/25/100 campaign — and that could easily serve as a benchmark for Betts. Arenado last year got an $8.25MM raise after a .297/38/110 season. Given that Arenado’s numbers were at Coors Field, Betts could certainly argue for that as a basis.
I suspect Betts would be able to successfully argue for at least topping Rendon’s $6.5MM, although Blackmon’s $6.7MM could be a ceiling. I could see Betts even getting up to an $8.25MM raise like Arenado did last year as well, though that might be more difficult. Based on this list of potential comps, the $5.9MM Betts would need to break Arenado’s record definitely seems doable if not guaranteed, and the model’s $7.6MM projection does seem out of reach either.
Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Brandon Drury
The Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury, agreeing to a one-year, $2.05MM deal for the 2020 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.
MLBTR projected Drury for a $2.5MM arb figure, so he’ll get a significantly smaller raise than expected over his $1.3MM salary from the 2019 season. Then again, Drury did little to enhance his value after a sub-replacement level (-0.6 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR) 2019 campaign that saw him hit only .218/.262/.380 with 15 home runs over 447 plate appearances. This makes it consecutive negative-WAR seasons for Drury, following an abbreviated 26-game year with the Jays and Yankees in 2018.
Drury will now be fighting to keep a superutility role next year, hoping that his versatility can keep him on the roster long enough to revive his bat. Drury spent most of his time at third base prior to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s promotion, and also saw action at second base, first base, both corner outfield slots, and five games at shortstop.
Ken Giles and Matt Shoemaker are Toronto’s two remaining arbitration-eligible players, as per MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. Teams have until 11am tomorrow to exchange figures with their arb-eligibles. Giles is projected for an $8.4MM deal, and Shoemaker for a $3.8MM salary.
Pirates Designate Pablo Reyes For Assignment
The Pirates have designated utilityman Pablo Reyes for assignment, the club announced. The move creates roster space for Guillermo Heredia, whose one-year deal with the Bucs is now official.
Over his 89 career games as a Major Leaguer since the start of the 2018 season, Reyes has already played multiple games at all three outfield positions, second base, third base, and shortstop. The bulk of that work has come as a corner outfielder, though Reyes’ versatility is a nice boost for a player who has yet to hit much at the MLB level — just a .229/.295/.368 slash line and five home runs over 220 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old Reyes has displayed more pop at the minor league level, hitting .278/.351/.421 over 2587 PA in Pittsburgh’s farm system. This includes an .885 OPS over 191 PA at Triple-A Indianapolis last season, though as with many minor leaguers in 2019, it’s hard to tell if the increased numbers indicate genuine progress on Reyes’ part. (The Triple-A level as a whole experienced an untold offensive surge after adopting the MLB baseball.) Between Reyes’ raw numbers and his value as a utility player, however, there’s a chance another team might be interest in plucking him away from Pittsburgh on the waiver wire.
Pirates Sign Guillermo Heredia
5:03PM: The Pirates officially announced the signing.
1:24PM: The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Guillermo Heredia, as first reported by Francys Romero of Los Mayores (Twitter link). It’s a Major League deal, MLB.com’s Adam Berry adds. Heredia is represented by Magnus Sports.
The 28-year-old Heredia was with the Rays in 2019 and spent the three prior seasons with Seattle. He’s seen action in 382 big league games and batted a combined .240/.317/.342 with 17 homers, 46 doubles, a triple and six stolen bases in 1101 plate appearances. While Heredia’s overall profile isn’t exactly eye-catching, he’s been a solid producer against left-handed pitching, hitting at a .274/.335/.401 clip in 487 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage (including a sharp .281/.339/.456 slash in 2019).
Heredia is capable of handling all three outfield spots, and while he doesn’t have plus marks for his work in center field, both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved feel he’s a strong defender in either corner slot. Despite playing in only a part-time role and being shuffled between the Majors and Triple-A, Heredia ranks 21st among 565 big league outfielders with 19 Outs Above Average dating back to 2016, per Statcast.
The Rays non-tendered Heredia back in December despite a rather timid $1.1MM projected salary in arbitration. He has three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that the Pirates can control him via arbitration all the way through 2022 should they see fit. Just how he fits into the club’s outfield picture is largely dependent on the fate of Starling Marte, for whom the organization is listening to trade offers.
Rangers Sign Luis Garcia, James Jones To Minors Contracts
The Rangers announced a series of pitching-related moves today, including the signings of right-hander Luis Garcia and southpaw James Jones to minor league contracts. Garcia and Jones will be invited to the club’s Major League Spring Training camp. In addition, recently-designated righty Jimmy Herget has been outrighted to Triple-A Nashville after clearing waivers, and right-hander Reed Garrett has been released so he can pursue a deal with Japan’s Seibu Lions.
Garcia, the most experienced member of the quartet, tossed 62 innings out of the Angels bullpen last season before opting for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A in October. Garcia posted a 4.35 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 1.73 K/BB rate, while taking a lot of damage from the home run ball, allowing 13 homers over his 62 frames of work. Garcia also posted a career-low 47.2% grounder rate; still a respectable total, though a step down for a pitcher who never dropped below the 54.7% mark with the Phillies from 2013-17. Garcia also posted a 48.4% grounder rate in 2018, so his days as a truly elite grounder specialist could be over.
Overall, Garcia has a 4.17 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 1.77 K/BB rate over 306 2/3 innings over the last seven seasons. He has held right-handed batters to a .238/.329/.370 slash line in that time, so he offers a bit of specialist value and durability to the Rangers should he win a job in their bullpen.
Jones will return for his fifth season in the Rangers organization as he continues the transition from outfielder to pitcher (yes, this is the same James Jones who saw action in center field for the Mariners in 2014-15). This work was interrupted by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2017 season, though more recent results have shown promise. Jones had a 2.67 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 2.37 K/BB rate over 64 innings in 2019, split between Double-A (56 1/3 IP) and Triple-A (7 2/3 IP). Jones seems likely to continue at Triple-A this year, as continues to slowly but surely take an unlikely path back to the majors.
Herget was designated when Texas acquired Adolis Garcia from the Cardinals almost three weeks ago, though Herget’s extended stay in DFA limbo was due to league offices being closed over the holiday season. A sixth-round pick for the Reds in the 2015 draft, Herget made his Major League debut in the form of 6 1/3 relief innings for Cincinnati last season, before the Rangers claimed him off waivers in early December.
Garrett also got his first taste of MLB action in 2019, with an 8.22 ERA over 15 1/3 innings with the Tigers. Garrett had some strong numbers in the minors in 2018, which prompted Detroit to select him in the Rule 5 Draft. The righty’s lack of immediate success, however, prompted the Tigers to send Garrett back to the Rangers last May. Garrett will now become the latest in an increasingly large number of players with MLB or high-minors experience (or, the proverbial “Quadruple-A” types) to head to Japan or South Korea in search of a larger salary or a more prominent role.
Brewers Re-Sign Tuffy Gosewisch To Minors Contract
The Brewers have re-signed catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, the team announced via Twitter. Gosewisch will return on a minor league contract that contains an invitation to Milwaukee’s Major League Spring Training camp.
Gosewisch joined the organization on a minors deal last winter and hit .205/.299/.308 over 134 plate appearances for Triple-A San Antonio. In all likelihood, Gosewisch will continue to serve in a similar veteran depth role this year, providing backup behind Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina on the big league roster.
The 36-year-old Gosewisch last played in the majors in 2017, appearing in 11 games with Seattle. Over 447 PA with the Diamondbacks and Mariners from 2013-17, Gosewisch has a .190/.228/.271 career slash line. After being released by the M’s after the 2017 campaign, Gosewisch spent the 2018 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A club.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Miguel Castro
The Orioles have avoided arbitration with right-hander Miguel Castro, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter). The two sides agreed to a one-year, $1.05MM deal with the right-hander, which falls just below the $1.2MM salary projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz.
A first-time arbitration-eligible player, Castro is coming off a season that saw him post a 4.66 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 1.73 K/BB rate over 73 1/3 IP out of Baltimore’s pen. The hard-throwing righty enjoyed a big boost in strikeouts over the 5.6 K/9 he posted over the 2017-18 seasons, though control continued to be an issue for Castro, as he hit the 5.0 BB/9 plateau for the second consecutive year. On the plus side, Statcast’s xwOBA metric indicated that Castro did a much better job of limiting hard contact in 2019 (.294 xwOBA) than he did in 2018 (.353), even though Castro’s ERA jumped from 3.96 in 2018 to his 4.66 figure last year.
With contracts for Castro and Richard Bleier now settled, the Orioles have three arbitration-eligible players remaining, as per MLBTR’s Arb Tracker — Trey Mancini ($5.7MM projected salary), Mychal Givens ($3.2MM), and Hanser Alberto ($1.9MM). Teams have until 11am CT tomorrow to exchange figures with their arb-eligible players.
Brewers Sign Logan Morrison
The Brewers have signed veteran outfielder/first baseman Logan Morrison to a minor league contract, as per reporter Robert Murray (Twitter links). The team has officially announced the move.
Morrison only appeared in 29 games last season, the fewest of his ten-year Major League career. He didn’t sign on with a team until April since he was recovering from hip surgery, eventually landing with the Yankees on a minors contract. Morrison requested his release in July when it became apparent that New York didn’t have any immediate plans for him at the MLB level, and Morrison then signed on with the Phillies, hitting only .200/.263/.400 over 38 plate appearances.
While neither the 2018 campaign nor last year went well for Morrison at the MLB level, he did mash in Triple-A ball in 2019. The 32-year-old posted a .308/.369/.640 line with 18 homers across 233 PA at the minors’ top level. He’s also not that far removed from a career-best showing in 2017, during which he batted .246/.353/.516 with 38 HRs in 601 trips to the plate as a member of the Rays.
In an ideal world for the Brewers, Morrison will revisit his Tampa Bay form. That seems unlikely, but as a member of an organization whose leading first base options either weren’t that impressive in 2019 (Justin Smoak, Ryon Healy) or don’t carry much experience at the position (Ryan Braun), perhaps Morrison will have a real chance to earn a spot.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/20
The latest minor league moves from around baseball….
- The Reds signed southpaw Brooks Raley to a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (via Twitter). After posting a 7.04 ERA over 38 1/3 innings for the Cubs in 2012-13 and then spending 2014 back in the minors, Raley headed for the Lotte Giants of the KBO League. Raley posted a 4.13 ERA, 2.79 K/BB rate, and 7.5 K/9 over 910 2/3 innings in Korea, starting all but one of his 152 outings. If the 31-year-old Raley can carry over some measure of that form from the KBO League, he’ll provide the Reds with some veteran rotation depth at the Triple-A level, putting him in line for another crack at the majors in the event of an injury to Cincinnati’s starting five.
- The Orioles have outrighted right-hander Marcos Diplan to Triple-A Norfolk, the team announced. Diplan cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week to create roster space for the newly-signed Kohl Stewart. Diplan has a 3.88 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 1.85 K/BB rate over 540 2/3 career minor league innings, working mostly as a reliever (starting seven of 38 total appearances) in 2019, pitching for the Double-A affiliates of the Twins and Brewers. It has been a busy transactional stretch for Diplan, who was claimed off Minnesota’s waiver wire by the Tigers in September, and then claimed again by the Orioles in December.
Nationals To Sign Tyler Eppler To Minors Contract
The Nationals have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Tyler Eppler, MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams reports (Twitter link). Eppler is returning to North American baseball after pitching for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes last season.
The trip to Japan saw Eppler pitch for both Orix’s minor league affiliate and with the Buffaloes themselves, including a 4.02 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 2.78 K/BB rate over 31 1/3 relief innings with the big club. Eppler worked almost exclusively as a starting pitcher over his previous 592 innings in the Pirates’ farm system from 2014-18, starting 100 of his 111 career games.
Originally a sixth-round pick for the Pirates in the 2014 draft, Eppler had some decent but unspectacular numbers in his minor league career. He had a 3.82 ERA and 3.14 K/BB, though didn’t generate many grounders or miss many bats (6.4 K/9), which could be why Pittsburgh didn’t protect Eppler from the Rule 5 Draft in either 2017 or 2018. Still, the bottom-line results are pretty solid, and there’s little risk for the Nationals in bringing the 27-year-old Eppler to Spring Training to see that he could contribute to the club’s shaky bullpen.