Latest On Rays, Montreal
The Rays have explored the possibility of dividing future seasons between Florida and Montreal, Canada, but that no longer appears to be on the table. St. Petersburg mayor Rick Kriseman announced this week that he will not give the Rays permission to seek a Tampa Bay-Montreal split, per Josh Solomon and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While the Rays had hoped to play games in Montreal by 2024, that’s not happening without the blessing of St. Petersburg.
Rays owner David Sternberg isn’t thrilled with Kriseman’s decision, as he said, “We do not agree that this is the best path forward.”
Sternberg went on to suggest future relocation could be on the table, stating, “We recognize that we must now consider our post-2027 options and all that entails and we remain steadfast in our belief that the sister city concept is deserving of serious consideration.”
Likewise, Rays president Brian Auld isn’t happy.
“It remains clear to us, and we continue to believe that it’s also true for the city, that the worst of possible outcomes here is for the team to be compelled to stay here through the end of the 2027 season,” Auld said, “and forced to pursue other options in a noncooperative engagement with the city of St. Petersburg.”
The Rays will be free to relocate if they and their city don’t establish a new union after the 2027 season. Until then, the Rays are bound to Tropicana Field – which many regard as one of the worst stadiums in baseball. Thanks in part to their unpalatable facility, the Rays posted the second-lowest attendance in baseball in 2019. It looks as if franchise higher-ups have had enough. Auld essentially told the Tampa Bay Times that, barring a true solution to their stadium problems, the Rays stand a good chance of leaving when they’re able.
“We don’t like to say never, but I think as (Sternberg) said on the day of the (June 25 Montreal) announcement at the Dali museum, it’s highly unlikely that a full season baseball team in Tampa Bay is going to be here in 2028,” Auld said.
Meanwhile, Rays president of baseball operations Matthew Silverman admitted that “the clock is ticking” in regards to an answer on the organization’s future. If the Rays do exit Tampa Bay in roughly a decade, Solomon, Topkin and TB Times colleague John Romano list Orlando, Nashville, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Portland, Vancouver and even Montreal as possible new homes for the franchise. Orlando’s efforts to land a major league team are already underway.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers
MLBTR has published Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The 2019 season resulted in another NL West title but more playoff disappointment for the powerhouse Dodgers. Now, newly extended president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is once again looking for ways to get the Dodgers their first World Series championship since 1988.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, LHP: $46.67MM through 2021
- A.J. Pollock, OF: $42MM through 2022 (including $5MM buyout for 2023)
- Kenley Jansen, RHP: $38MM through 2021
- Joe Kelly, RHP: $21MM through 2021 (including $4MM buyout for 2022)
- Justin Turner, 3B: $19MM through 2020
- Kenta Maeda, RHP: $12MM through 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
- Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
- Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
- Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
- Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
- Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
- Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
- Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM
Free Agents
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Russell Martin, Jedd Gyorko, Yimi Garcia, David Freese (retired)
The Dodgers have been eminently successful since Friedman came over from Tampa Bay to take the reins after the 2014 season. However, despite their financial might, they haven’t been aggressive in handing out large contracts during the Friedman reign. In fact, the Friedman-led Dodgers haven’t issued a single $100MM-plus contract. That could change this offseason, though, as the Dodgers work to finally push themselves over the top in 2020. So far this offseason, they’ve been connected to the three best free agents available – right-hander Gerrit Cole, third baseman Anthony Rendon and righty Stephen Strasburg (the latter two helped bounce the Dodgers from the playoffs this year as members of the Nationals). It’s entirely possible all three will require contracts worth at least $200MM and $30MM or more per year, and giving out that type of deal would obviously represent a radical change of course for the Dodgers.
On paper, the team certainly has the money for a Cole-Rendon-Strasburg splash, but if the Dodgers are still leery of the luxury tax, any of those signings would be difficult to swing. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax projection for 2020 is currently at just south of $180MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. The first level of the tax next season will fall between $208MM and $228MM. If the Dodgers spend anywhere in that vicinity, the league would hit them with a 20 percent overage tax. Should that deter the Dodgers from making major improvements this winter? Frankly, no, but as we’ve seen time and again, team owners prefer to stay under the tax.
Tax aside, Friedman hasn’t been keen on passing out very long contracts, which could be problematic in regards to a potential LA pursuit of the game’s elite free agents. Cole and Rendon should each get at least seven-year guarantees, while Strasburg may end up at six. Friedman could offer any of those players a high-AAV deal for fewer years, as he reportedly did last offseason with Bryce Harper, but who’s to say any would leave a larger overall guarantee on the table from another club?
Considering the way they typically operate, some skepticism is warranted in regards to whether the Dodgers will actually reel in any of the three superstar free agents on the board. But let’s say it happens. If it’s Cole or Strasburg, he’ll further beef up an already strong rotation that boasts Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw as locks. Meanwhile, Friedman has suggested Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have legit chances to comprise the rest of the rotation. Not to be forgotten, the Dodgers also have Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among their starting options. At the same time, it would be unwise to rule out the potential re-signing of either Hyun-Jin Ryu and/or Rich Hill, who comprise the Dodgers’ two best free agents. Ryu would make for a nice, much cheaper alternative to Cole or Strasburg, though he’s also in line to do rather well on the open market. The aged Hill should be attainable on a one-year deal, and he has already said he’d like to remain a Dodger. If the Dodgers strike out on all of those fronts, perhaps they’d pursue a trade for a starter. Matthew Boyd, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer (whom Friedman knows well from Tampa Bay) are among the starters who may wind up on the block this offseason.
As is the case with their rotation, the Dodgers don’t necessarily have to do anything at third. Justin Turner remains a hugely valuable contributor, yet the club has nonetheless explored Rendon and the No. 2 third baseman in free agency, Josh Donaldson. The latter’s the type of short-term, high-AAV player who could be up the Dodgers’ alley. What would signing Donaldson mean for Turner, though? Well, the 35-year-old has said he’d be open to a position change, which would likely mean moving to first or second. Problem is that the Dodgers aren’t exactly hard up at either of those spots. Max Muncy can line up at either place, NL MVP-winning outfielder Cody Bellinger can play first on occasion, and stud prospect Gavin Lux garnered quite a bit of experience at the keystone late in the season. All that said, if the Dodgers do add Rendon or Donaldson, perhaps they’d shop Turner. Odds are they wouldn’t have much trouble finding a taker, as Turner’s only signed for another year (at $19MM) and would make for an appealing consolation prize for teams that lose out on Rendon and Donaldson.
Staying in the Dodgers’ infield, there’s also at least some chance of a new shortstop coming to town. The Dodgers are well-equipped there with Corey Seager, but he’s not the type of game-changer Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is. Lindor has another two arbitration-eligible years remaining and, relative to his performance, figures to earn more-than-reasonable salaries in that span. Nevertheless, because the Indians are unlikely to extend the 26-year-old, his name has been bandied about in trade speculation for months. Should he actually become available, Los Angeles is reportedly among the teams that would consider a pursuit. It’s anyone’s guess what a Lindor acquisition would mean for Seager. Perhaps he’d wind up in Cleveland or elsewhere via trade. Regardless, despite his waning team control, Lindor’s good enough to bring back a haul in a trade. The Dodgers may have the ammunition to pull off such a strike, though, considering their wealth of assets in the majors and minors.
Speaking of trades, the Dodgers could go that route and subtract from their lineup. Outfielder Joc Pederson is coming off a 36-home run season, though he has now come up in trade speculation in back-to-back winters. The White Sox seem particularly interested in Pederson, who’s controllable for one more year and should collect a fair salary worth less than $10MM. Pederson’s a valuable player, so the Dodgers can simply keep him, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously noted, they’d be brimming with good outfielders even after his departure (Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Kyle Garlick and Matt Beaty). Furthermore, dealing Pederson may help the Dodgers upgrade an area of greater concern on their roster.
The bullpen was often a source of frustration for the Dodgers in 2019, including during their NLDS loss to the Nats. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen looked more mortal than ever, while last winter’s big-money Joe Kelly signing probably didn’t produce the Year 1 results the Dodgers wanted. Those two will be back next season, though, as will Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Adam Kolareak and Casey Sadler. Meanwhile, the hurlers from the Dodgers’ surplus of starters who don’t crack their rotation could also factor into the mix. In all, not a bad group. The Dodgers could still do better, though.
The question is: How can the Dodgers upgrade their bullpen from outside? It might not be that easy in free agency, where the No. 1 reliever on this year’s market, Will Smith, has already signed with the Braves. That move crushed the hopes of the many who wanted to see Will Smith pitching to Will Smith in Los Angeles in 2020. With Smith (the pitcher) and Drew Pomeranz (Padres) now off the board, this year’s class of unsigned relievers looks a lot less inspiring. Dellin Betances, Steve Cishek, Kevin Gausman, Daniel Hudson, Collin McHugh, Joe Smith and Will Harris are some of the best choices left, and the Dodgers have shown interest in former A’s closer Blake Treinen. Meantime, the trade market could feature Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Keone Kela (Pirates) and Mychal Givens (Orioles), to name a few. Whether or not the Dodgers acquire anyone from that bunch, it doesn’t appear they’ll be spending an exorbitant amount of cash on trying to better their relief corps in the coming months.
Unlike some other NL clubs (the Padres and Braves, for example), the Dodgers haven’t orchestrated any headline-grabbing moves to this point in the offseason. However, considering their reported interest in several big fish, that could change as early as next week’s Winter Meetings. Even if the Dodgers veer away from adding any true standouts before next year, the Friedman-led club will enter 2020 as the odds-on favorites to win the NL West yet again. But that alone isn’t going to suffice for Dodgers fans, who have waited three-plus decades since their most recent title and have endured one letdown after another in recent postseasons.
D-backs Expect To Spread Free Agent Spending
The Diamondbacks will have money to work with this winter, but don’t expect them to land a premium free agent. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, the team intends to spread its free cash around to plug multiple holes.
Team CEO Derrick Hall wasn’t looking to play hide-and-seek with his payroll planning. He made clear the team expects to open with about as much on the books for 2020 as it had in the prior two campaigns. That leaves $30MM and change to spend toward the 2020 roster, per Piecoro’s tabulations, depending upon the opportunities available and any desire to keep a war chest handy for mid-season moves.
It’s “doubtful” the team will “put it all in on one big free agent,” Hall says. Rather, the intention is to “look at multiple guys.” So, the intention is to compete. At the same time, the organization won’t rule out trading from its MLB roster.
Flexibility is the name of the game for GM Mike Hazen. The Snakes feel they have it and are willing to utilize it … so long as it doesn’t handcuff them in the future. Even as the team explores possible deals involving southpaw Robbie Ray, who’ll be a free agent after the season, Hall says there’s a “surplus of talent” on the farm that could allow the organization to structure deals to improve the MLB product.
The possibilities are endless as the Winter Meetings approach. Click here to read our full preview of the Arizona offseason (which we published before reports emerged of Ray’s ongoing availability).
Rays, Padres Announce Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe Trade
DECEMBER 6, 6:32pm: The trade has been announced. The Rays will acquire a player to be named later to go with Renfroe and Edwards, with the Padres picking up Pham and Cronenworth.
2:00am: It appears the Rays will also land another prospect in the deal, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com.
12:27am: The Padres will also acquire minor leaguer Jake Cronenworth in the trade, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports. The 25-year-old Cronenworth enjoyed an eminently successful year at the Triple-A level in 2019, when he hit .334/.429/.520 with 10 HRs and 12 steals in 406 trips to the plate. Cronenworth’s primarily a middle infielder, but the 2015 seventh-rounder can also pitch. He put up 7 1/3 scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and four hits allowed at the minors’ highest level in 2019, though the righty hurler did surrender eight walks.
DECEMBER 5, 10:55pm: The teams have agreed to the trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. However, it won’t be announced until medical reviews of all the involved players are completed Friday.
10:42pm: The Rays and Padres are deep into talks on a trade that would see Tampa Bay outfielder Tommy Pham and San Diego outfielder Hunter Renfroe switch clubs, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Rays would also land Single-A shortstop Xavier Edwards, while the Padres would pick up an unnamed prospect to go with Pham.
This is already the second major outfield trade of the winter for the Padres, who acquired Trent Grisham from the Brewers last week. Pham is far more proven than Grisham, as the former is coming off yet another outstanding season at the plate. The 31-year-old Pham, whose first full season came with the Cardinals in 2017, has somewhat quietly been among the majors’ most effective outfielders over the past three campaigns. He has totaled 13.6 fWAR, including 3.3 in 2019, dating back to his initial full season. Typically one to post high on-base percentages, Pham’s coming off a year in which he slashed .273/.369/.450 with 21 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 654 plate appearances.
In Pham, the Padres – led by under-fire general manager A.J. Preller – are getting a player with two years’ control remaining. Pham, who’s slated to earn a projected $8.6MM next season, will join Grisham, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Franchy Cordero and prospect Taylor Trammell as the Padres’ most prominent outfielders.
While Pham looks like an intriguing addition for the Padres, they’re giving up a powerful and affordable outfielder at the same time. Renfroe, soon to turn 28, entered the bigs as a first-round pick of the Padres in 2013. He has hit at least 26 homers in each season since debuting in earnest in 2017, including 33 this year, though injuries helped undermine him after a hot start in 2019. Renfroe wound up slashing .216/.289/.489 over 494 PA, and he earned elite marks in 998 innings divided among all three outfield positions (22 Defensive Runs Saved, 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating).
Never a team to boast a high payroll, the Rays are saving quite a bit of money in this swap. Renfroe should only make around $3.4MM next season, which will be his first of four arbitration-eligible years. He’ll presumably accompany Austin Meadows and Kevin Kiermaier as the Rays’ starting outfielders in 2020, thus replacing free agent Avisail Garcia.
Along with Renfroe, the Rays are getting a quality farmhand in Edwards, a 2018 first-rounder whom FanGraphs ranked as the Padres’ 14th-best prospect in a loaded Padres system back in May. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote then that Edwards “is a high-effort offensive catalyst who knifes at defenses with line drives and well-placed bunts,” adding that second base or center field could be in his future. The 20-year-old divided 2019 between both middle infield positions and batted .322/.375/.396 with just a single homer in 596 PA at the Single-A and High-A levels.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Yankees, Brett Gardner Still Negotiating Contract
The Yankees are still working with outfielder Brett Gardner on a new contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter. It seems the expectation remains that he’ll stay in pinstripes.
The sides have been chatting about a new contract for some time now, but it doesn’t appear as if any doubt has arisen as to their mutual intentions. Per Heyman, the Yanks have put another offer on the table to Gardner and his reps.
It’s unknown what kind of price points are being haggled over. Gardner earned $7.5MM last year and hasn’t taken home a single-season salary of over $13.5MM during his dozen years in New York. It’s tough to imagine a new contract departing from that range.
While Gardner is now 36 years of age, he popped a career-high 28 long balls last year. Though he wasn’t alone amidst a leaguewide power outburst, he was productive as compared to the league mean and his own established track record. Gardner’s 115 wRC+ represented a full-season high-water mark. He remains a highly capable baserunner and outfielder as well.
The Yanks got exceptional value on their money last year and figure to do so again. Whether Gardner is interested in multiple years isn’t known, but it stands to reason he’d be able to command two-year offers from other teams. The steady veteran has appeared in at least 140 games in every season since his washed-out 2012. He graded out as the 32nd player on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings.
White Sox Claim Tayron Guerrero
The White Sox have claimed righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment on non-tender day to clear roster space.
Guerrero pumps 99 and increasingly proved capable last year of drawing swings and misses (13.3%) while also getting his first pitches over for strikes (63.4%). But he hasn’t yet figured out how to consistently convert his physical tools into big-league outs.
Last year, Guerrero averaged over seven walks per nine innings to go with 8.4 K/9 and an ugly 6.26 ERA. Perhaps the Chicago organization has mechanical or pitch usage ideas to help the towering hurler as he moves from South Beach to the South Side.
Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach
2:55pm: Brach’s signing has been announced. The club designated righty Chris Flexen for assignment to create roster space.
1:13pm: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Brad Brach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s said to be promised a $850K salary for the 2020 season (on top of the $500K he’s already owed by the Cubs). Brach is a client of Big League Management.
While the single-season earnings are relatively modest, the deal does include a $1.25MM player option that provides a backstop for the 33-year-old reliever. The price tag goes up based upon the number of games he appears in. ($125K at 20 games; $350K apiece upon his 30th, 35th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 65th appearances.) There are incentives in both years of the contract, also tied to appearances (beginning with his 50th).
Brach has deep ties to the area, having grown up and played his college ball in New Jersey. It was seen as something of a homecoming when he landed in Queens in the middle of the 2019 season. As I noted in previewing the Mets’ offseason, it seemed sensible to imagine a reunion.
Both team and player obviously enjoyed the experience. For the second-straight season, Brach turned around suboptimal results after swapping jerseys in the middle of the year. In 39 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Brach limped to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and an alarming 6.4 BB/9. But with the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 14 2/3 frames while posting a strong 15:3 K/BB ratio.
What changed? Brach was pumping his customary 95 mph for most of his tenure in Chicago and continued upon moving to New York. But there was some chatter that Brach had been tipping his changeup. And pitch-tracking software identified a major shift in usage in favor of a cut fastball. The new approach worked, at least in a short sample.
For the Mets, this move plugs one bullpen opening with a known quantity who has late-inning experience. Brach is now a few years removed from his best years in Baltimore, but this seems like a nice price tag for the veteran. The Mets will still need to look for creative ways of boosting their relief unit.
Cubs Sign Dan Winkler
2:42pm: The deal has now been announced.
10:09am: Winkler agreed to a split Major League contract with a $750K salary in the Majors and a $200K salary in the minors, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). He can earn an additional $750K in the Majors via incentives.
8:20am: The Cubs and free-agent righty Dan Winkler are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The MVP Sports Group client elected free agency at season’s end after being outrighted off the Giants’ 40-man roster.
Winkler, 30 in February, was one of the players sent from Atlanta to San Francisco in the Mark Melancon salary dump. He lasted only a day on the Giants’ 40-man roster, though, further underscoring that the trade was primarily a financially motivated transaction.
But while Winkler struggled through 21 2/3 innings at the MLB level in 2019 (4.98 ERA, 22-to-11 K/BB ratio), he was a very effective bullpen piece with the Braves just a year prior. In 2018, Winkler returned from a grueling injury absence to post 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Winkler had previously gone down to Tommy John surgery in 2014 and, upon returning to the mound in 2016, sustained another gut-wrenching injury when he (audibly) fractured his elbow while throwing a pitch. From 2015-17, he totaled just 41 1/3 innings between the big leagues and the minors thanks to those injuries, but the right-hander is seemingly healthy now. In addition to his work in the Majors last year, Winkler tossed 30 2/3 innings in Triple-A (with a 2.93 ERA, 29 strikeouts and a troubling 23 walks).
If Winkler is able to return to form with his new team, the Cubs will be able to control him through the 2021 season via arbitration. He also has minor league options remaining, so the Cubs can shuttle him back and forth between Triple-A Iowa and Chicago on an as-needed basis if he doesn’t solidify his spot in the ‘pen from the outset.
Phillies To Pursue Anthony Rendon
The Phillies are preparing to make a run at free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’s now the team’s top priority, per the report.
If there was any doubt as to the Phillies’ all-in intentions after they inked Zack Wheeler, this would seem to resolve it. The organization had spoken of its disinclination to part with draft compensation to land free agents. But having done so for Wheeler, adding another qualifying offer-declining free agent would actually cost less in draft capital.
Should the sides end up seeing eye to eye on a contract, Rendon would be following Bryce Harper in a dramatic trip north on I-95. It’s not difficult to see the match on paper. Rendon is an exceptional all-around player who’d fill the void at the hot corner for the Phils. The team grew tired of waiting for Maikel Franco to establish himself there and isn’t inclined to sit on its hands until top prospect Alec Bohm is ready.
Plenty of other teams (the incumbent Nationals among them) would likewise love to slot Rendon in at third base. He’s being courted by a variety of organizations. Rumors persist that Rendon would be interested in a somewhat shorter, higher-AAV contract — the precise opposite of the angle Harper took. Whether that sort of arrangement would suit the Philadelphia club’s needs isn’t known.
What is clear is that the involvement of the Phillies only serves to buttress Rendon’s market. Entering the winter, we predicted a $235MM guarantee over seven years. It seems that Rendon does indeed have that kind of earning power, even if he ultimately elects to take a shorter contract with greater single-season salaries.
Latest On Addison Russell
DECEMBER 6: A source tells Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link) that the Tigers “have no interest” in Russell.
DECEMBER 5: The Tigers are among the teams interested in free-agent middle infielder Addison Russell, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Russell joined the open market when the Cubs non-tendered him Monday.
There is no denying Russell is a major league-caliber middle infielder, but the significant baggage he comes with likely helped influence the Cubs to move on from him. The 25-year-old Russell sat out the early portion of last season after the league issued him a 40-game suspension for a violation of its domestic violence policy in October 2018. Once Russell came back from that alarming ban, opposing pitchers handled him. The former top prospect managed a weak .237/.308/.391 line with nine home runs across 241 plate appearances.
The Cubs, led by president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, have spoken well of Russell since they moved on from him. Nevertheless, he probably won’t do all that well in free agency, which helps make the rebuilding Tigers a fit for Russell. They don’t figure to spend that much in free agency after a 47-win campaign. General manager Al Avila has indicated that utilityman Niko Goodrum‘s the favorite to man short in 2020, but even if that’s true, the Tigers have a clear need at second base. Russell has significant experience at both positions.