Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Hitters
We’re less than a week removed from analyzing how the five largest expiring contracts on the pitching side have panned out. We’ll do the same here with five big-money hitters who are scheduled to reach free agency in about a month. Notable omission: Red Sox designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez, who’s far from a sure thing to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM that remain on his contract.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals (six years, $100MM, including $2MM buyout for 2020 and $10MM personal services contract that begins when career ends)
Total fWAR: 5.2
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $41.7MM
- The Nationals made the decision in 2012 to extend Zimmerman, then a star third baseman, though the contract didn’t kick in until 2014. Aside from a resurgent 2017, Zimmerman hasn’t been particularly valuable since Washington awarded him his lucrative accord. Injuries have been a consistent problem for Zimmerman along the way, including during a 190-plate appearance 2019 in which the 35-year-old mustered a less-than-stellar .257/.321/.415 line with six home runs. Those type of numbers don’t really play anywhere, especially at first base – which has become Zimmerman’s lone position. He hasn’t lined up at the hot corner since the first season of his deal. Once their season ends, the Nats will buy Zimmerman out for $2MM in lieu of bringing him back for an unpalatable $18MM.
Russell Martin, C, Dodgers (five years, $82MM)
Total fWAR: 12.5
Dollar value of contributions: $99.6MM
- As a free agent in November 2014, Martin returned to his native Canada on an expensive contract with the Blue Jays. It worked out beautifully for the Jays during the first few years, but the rebuilding club elected to send Martin and the majority of the money left on his deal to the Dodgers – with whom he began his career – last January. The well-respected 36-year-old has remained a useful player in 2019, though he’s no longer the starting-caliber catcher he has been for most of his career. Martin, who has taken a backseat to Dodgers rookie Will Smith, has hit .220/.337/.330 with six HRs in 249 PA on the offensive side. Defensively, Martin’s still an above-average option, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
Alex Gordon, LF, Royals (four years, $72MM, including $4MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 3.3
Dollar value of contributions: $26.3MM
- Gordon’s contract, which still stands as the largest the Royals have ever given out, hasn’t provided the on-field value KC was hoping for when it re-signed him off a World Series-winning campaign. Gordon remains an immensely respected figure with the franchise, though, and if the soon-to-be 36-year-old decides to continue his career in 2020, it appears the Royals will welcome him back. First things first, the club will decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout, meaning Gordon will have to sign a new, much cheaper contract should he play next season.
Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox (six years, $68MM)
Total fWAR: 17.9
Dollar value of contributions: $141.5MM
- Abreu’s the sole player on this list who’s setting up to make out well on his next deal, thanks in part to a late-season surge. The 32-year-old could even get a qualifying offer before hitting free agency, though he and the White Sox probably hope it doesn’t come to that. Both sides have publicly gushed over one another on several occasions, so it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the White Sox and Abreu shake hands on a fresh deal sometime in the next few weeks. Regardless, the franchise-record contract the White Sox gave Abreu as a Cuban emigree in 2013 has provided tons of surplus value for the team.
Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins (seven years, $60MM, including $1MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 10.6
Dollar value of contributiions: $83.4MM
- Plenty has changed for Castro since he landed his contract as an up-and-coming player in 2012. For one, he was a shortstop at that point – a player the Cubs thought would be a long-term building block. But Castro was inconsistent from 2013-15, the first three years of his deal, leading the Cubs to trade him to the Yankees. Castro’s so-so production continued in New York from 2016-17, after which the Yankees offloaded him to the Marlins in a salary-dumping move that made it easier for the Bronx Bombers to take on Giancarlo Stanton‘s massive contract. The now-second baseman has essentially been the same player in Miami, a notoriously low-budget outfit that will buy him out for $1MM this offseason instead of exercising its $16MM option over him for 2020. Set to turn 30 in March, Castro will venture to the market on the heels of a 1.3-fWAR season in which he batted .270/.300/.436 and smacked 22 homers over 676 PA.
Reds Will Have Bigger Payroll, Postseason Aspirations In 2020
While their 75-win tally fell far shy of postseason qualification, the Reds did crack seventy victories for the first time since 2014. Expectations are only ramping up from there, as club president of baseball operations Dick Williams made clear in his chat today with media members including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
The measure of success in 2020 is unambiguous. Per Williams: “The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters. That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”
Getting there is going to require a massive effort, beginning with the hot stove efforts of the front office. Williams says he sees a path to an “even more impactful” offseason effort than he oversaw last year, because “we’ll have more financial resources at our disposal.” He went on to state plainly: “Our payroll will be bigger this year. There will be good opportunities to invest that payroll.”
The Cincinnati ballclub already ramped its spending up significantly this year, opening the season with over $126MM on the books. There’s a bit less than sixty million committed already for 2020, before accounting for the arbitration salaries of Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Peraza and others. That should leave a fair bit of breathing room to work with, particularly with the Opening Day payroll figure slated to rise.
Williams didn’t exactly map out how the team intends to spend that cash, but did make clear that it isn’t going to “shy away from” a “big-dollar, multi-year contract.” There’ll be a healthy respect for avoiding too massive a commitment, he said, but made clear that open-market spending “is part of the strategy this year.”
The Reds have quite a few pieces in place, but no shortage of areas to improve. There’s need in the middle infield and room for an outfield bat (especially after dealing away top prospect Taylor Trammell to acquire Bauer). It’s possible to imagine the club again exploring a better-hitting catcher. The rotation may need only a depth addition or two, but the bullpen could stand to be upgraded with multiple good arms.
Figuring out how to sustain the pitching advances achieved in 2019 remains necessary. But the focus will surely be on bringing up an 87 team wRC+ that was sixth-worst in baseball. Williams says that the pitching strides came from “a combination of making smart trades, smart signings, the staff we brought in, the advancement in technology.” The Reds hope to replicate that blend with the bats this winter. The organization will anticipate “internal improvement” but won’t be content watching and hoping, he says. The Reds also intend to “add to the offensive side of the club.”
MLBTR Poll: AL Wild-Card Matchup
The Athletics are minutes away from hosting the Rays in a wild-card matchup consisting of two of the majors’ lowest-spending teams. Even though the A’s and Rays don’t boast the spending power of fellow AL playoff clubs such as the Yankees and Astros, that didn’t stop either Oakland or Tampa Bay from enjoying outstanding regular seasons. The A’s, built by executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst, amassed 97 wins and posted the majors’ fifth-best run differential (plus-165). The Rays, led by by their own formidable two-man setup of senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and GM Erik Neander, rival the A’s in victories (96) and run differential (plus-113, which places seventh in the game).
Oakland will initially turn to left-hander Sean Manaea in Wednesday’s matchup, even though he missed the majority of the regular season while recovering from the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. The 27-year-old Manaea was fantastic during the five starts he did make this season, though, having notched a sterling 1.21 ERA (with a less imposing 3.42 FIP) and 9.1 K/9 against 2.12 BB/9 in 29 2/3 innings. He’ll try to contain a Rays lineup that was tough on lefties during the regular campaign, as the unit logged the league’s 11th-highest wRC+ (101) versus southpaws.
Meanwhile, the Rays will count on the battle-tested Charlie Morton, a brilliant offseason free-agent signing who’s just two falls removed from serving as a playoff hero for World Series-winning Houston. The 35-year-old Morton has been among the absolute best pitchers in baseball in 2019, evidenced by the 3.05 ERA/2.81 FIP with 11.1 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 he has put forth across a career-high 194 2/3 frames. He’ll deal with an A’s offense that has caused headaches for righties, who yielded a 104 wRC+ (the game’s sixth-highest figure) to Oakland’s hitters. Center fielder Mark Canha, first baseman Matt Olson, shortstop Marcus Semien and third baseman Matt Chapman have made life especially miserable on RHPs this season.
In all likelihood, both teams’ bullpens will figure prominently in tonight’s contest. Both groups were among the league’s most successful in the regular season, and the two look especially loaded for a one-game playoff. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, breakout righty Tyler Glasnow and dominant in-season pickup Nick Anderson are at the forefront of the Rays’ options, while the A’s bring to the table imposing youngsters Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk, not to mention lights-out closer Liam Hendriks and workhorse righty Yusmeiro Petit, among others.
Regardless of who wins tonight, the hope is the game will rival the excitement of Tuesday’s Nationals-Brewers matchup. The home team, Washington, survived a thriller to advance to the National League Division Series. Now, will the A’s also hold serve in their stadium? Or will the Rays move on to face the top-seeded Astros in the ALDS?
(Poll link for app users)
Who Will Win Tonight's AL Wild Card Game?
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Rays 64% (1,914)
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Athletics 36% (1,057)
Total votes: 2,971
White Sox Will Not Retain Hitting Coaches
The White Sox have announced that they will not retain hitting coach Todd Steverson, as James Fegan of The Athletic was among those to cover on Twitter. Assistant hitting coach Greg Sparks will also not be brought back.
Steverson has been in his position since 2014, representing a rather lengthy run for a hitting coach. He has previously coached with the Athletics. Sparks had a three-year run as Steverson’s assistant.
Otherwise, the staff under manager Rick Renteria will remain unchanged. The White Sox had to be thrilled with the strides made by some hitters — Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, James McCann — but the overall offensive output fell below league average. That’s certainly not the sole fault of Steverson and Sparks, but the organization obviously decided those weren’t the right people to drive future improvements at the plate.
Red Sox Will Not Retain Assistant Hitting Coach Andy Barkett
The Red Sox have decided not to bring back assistant hitting coach Andy Barkett, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported. The 46-year-old had been in the role for two seasons.
Further coaching decisions aren’t yet known, though Speier notes that head hitting coach Tim Hyers is expected to return in the same capacity. While Barkett is said to have been valued as a communicator, Speier suggests that an analytical approach may be preferred in the role.
Rays Announce Wild Card Roster
As the Athletics did shortly before them, the Rays have announced their 25-man roster for tonight’s Wild Card showdown in Oakland. They’ll carry 10 pitchers, as Tampa Bay looks to have loaded up on right-handed bench bats in anticipation not only of lefty starter Sean Manaea but of the Athletics’ five left-handed relief options. Conversely, Tampa Bay is only carrying three lefty pitchers, as Oakland’s lineup is predominantly right-handed.
Right-handed pitchers
- Charlie Morton (starter)
- Nick Anderson
- Diego Castillo
- Oliver Drake
- Tyler Glasnow
- Emilio Pagan
- Chaz Roe
Left-handed pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
- Willy Adames
- Jesus Aguilar
- Mike Brosseau
- Ji-Man Choi
- Yandy Diaz
- Matt Duffy
- Brandon Lowe
- Daniel Robertson
- Joey Wendle
Outfielders
Absent from Tampa Bay’s roster are deadline pickup Eric Sogard and slugging young first baseman Nate Lowe, both of whom hit left-handed. The Rays also opted against carrying outfielder Guillermo Heredia and late-season speed specialist Johnny Davis in tonight’s winner-take-all setting.
A look at this iteration of the Rays underscores the enormous amount of work that general manager Erik Neander, senior vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and the rest of the Rays’ front office have done in reshaping the roster over the past 18 months. Tampa Bay’s roster features 15 players who weren’t even in the organization on Opening Day 2018. Of this group of 25 players, only seven were on the Rays’ Opening Day roster to begin the 2018 season.
In fact, the Rays’ playoff roster not only contains 15 players who weren’t with the organization on Opening Day 2018 but 17 players whom it acquired via trade (counting Drake, d’Arnaud and Roe, each of whom was acquired for cash considerations or, ostensibly, purchased from another club). The only drafted/originally signed Rays on tonight’s roster are Kiermaier, Lowe, Snell, Yarbrough, Castillo and Brosseau (who signed as an undrafted free agent in 2016). Morton and Garcia signed as free agents this past offseason.
Athletics Announce Wild Card Roster
The Athletics have formally announced their roster for this year’s Wild Card game against the Rays. They’ll head into tonight’s sudden-death showdown with 11 pitchers, headlined by resurgent top starter Sean Manaea.
Right-handed pitchers
Left-handed pitchers
- Sean Manaea (starter)
- Ryan Buchter
- Jake Diekman
- Jesus Luzardo
- A.J. Puk
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
The fact that Manaea is in line to start tonight’s contest is remarkable for multiple reasons. The lefty underwent shoulder surgery last August that, at the time, was expected to not only end his 2018 season but quite likely his 2019 campaign. Over the course of the current season, though, Manaea passed recovery milestones and benchmarks well ahead of schedule — enough that he was able to make it back to a big league mound at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 1.
Talented as Manaea was known to be, few could’ve expected the type of otherworldly production he’s shown since activation. In five starts, he’s given the A’s 29 2/3 innings of 1.21 ERA ball with a 30-to-7 K/BB ratio and just three home runs allowed. He didn’t face a dominant series of lineups down the stretch, squaring off against the Tigers, Rangers (twice) and Mariners in addition to the more formidable Yankees, but that level of output immediately upon returning from major shoulder surgery is nevertheless impressive.
One name that is notably absent, as was first reported by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, is right fielder Stephen Piscotty. The decision to carry Barreto over Piscotty boiled down to the simple matter of health, manager Bob Melvin explained in that interview with Slusser. Piscotty missed a month with a sprained ankle late in the year, and while he returned in time to take four at-bats in the Athletics’ regular-season finale, the club felt Barreto’s superior speed was a better use of the roster spot. The A’s could, of course, change gears and carry Piscotty on the roster in the ALDS if they advance beyond tonight’s one-game playoff.
More broadly looking at the Oakland roster, it’s punctuated by a rather large number of rookies. Not only have none of Luzardo, Puk, Neuse, Murphy or Brown played a full season in the big leagues — none of those five had even played in a single Major League game prior to Aug. 21. Barreto, meanwhile, has seen action in parts of three Major League seasons but still has just 209 plate appearances at the game’s top level under his belt.
Oakland isn’t carrying veteran starters Tanner Roark, Homer Bailey or Brett Anderson on its single-game roster, either, although as with Piscotty, they can be added back into the mix for the Divisional round of play in the event of an A’s victory tonight.
Latest On Angels’ Managerial Vacancy
Owner Arte Moreno, frustrated with the Angels’ fourth consecutive losing season, was the one who ultimately pushed for a managerial change, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. And although the timing of Brad Ausmus’ dismissal as Angels manager aligned rather conveniently with the news that Joe Maddon was out as Cubs manager, general manager Billy Eppler said in a conference call yesterday that Ausmus’ status was being debated even before the availability of other veteran candidates (i.e. Joe Maddon) was known.
Perhaps most interestingly, Fletcher adds that while there’s been heavy speculation about the Angels and Maddon, there had been no contact between the two sides as of Tuesday. Maddon wasn’t fired and is technically under contract with the Cubs through the end of October, although the Cubs organization clearly wouldn’t stand in the way of him talking with other teams at this point.
A lack of contact between the two sides certainly doesn’t mean that there won’t be any at all. To the contrary, it’d be a genuine surprise if Maddon didn’t emerge as a viable contender for the job. At the same time, the fact that the two sides haven’t even talked suggests that Maddon to the Angels perhaps isn’t set in stone. To that end, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger lists Angels special assistant Eric Chavez, Astros bench coach Joe Espada and former Yankees manager Joe Girardi as possible candidates. Girardi, who publicly voiced a desire to return to the dugout just this morning, knows Eppler quite well from the pair’s days with the Yankees. Eppler, though, made clear yesterday that he needs to sit down with Moreno and team president John Carpino to formulate a list of interview candidates.
Furthermore, Eppler was emphatic in taking accountability for the Angels’ poor season. “I want to make it clear Brad is not solely responsible for the result of our season,” said the GM in yesterday’s call. “The majority of our short-term acquisitions that we made this past offseason did not produce to their forecast. And those failures lie with me.”
Indeed, the trio of Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill and Cody Allen proved unproductive, although Eppler did make some shrewd pickups over the past year. Right-hander Hansel Robles has proven to be one of the more successful waiver claims in recent memory, and Eppler nabbed another waiver gem just prior to Opening Day when he claimed Brian Goodwin off release waivers from the Royals organization. Those additions might’ve provided some bright spots this season, but the team’s starting pitching situation remains bleak and will surely be an area of focus for the Angels as the offseason approaches.
Joe Girardi: “I Want To Manage Again”
Former Yankees and Marlins manager Joe Girardi hasn’t been in the dugout since the Yankees opted not to re-sign him after the 2017 season, but he made clear in an appearance with Mully & Haugh on 670 The Score AM this morning that he’s interested not only in the Cubs’ current vacancy but in any of the managerial gigs available this winter (Twitter links). “Any job out there is going to interest me, because I want to manage again,” said the 2006 NL Manager of the Year. Girardi added that he won’t comment on whether he has an interview lined up with the Cubs or any other team.
Girardi has previously discussed his desire to get back into the dugout and earlier this year even expressed an openness to managing a rebuilding club. He’s been working as an analyst for the MLB Network since last year. Girardi interviewed for several openings in the 2018-19 offseason, including the Rangers, Blue Jays and Reds, although he ultimately withdrew his name from consideration in Cincinnati’s search. Texas and Toronto, meanwhile went with younger and/or less-experienced options in Chris Woodward and Charlie Montoyo, respectively.
An even greater slate of managerial vacancies will likely present itself to Girardi and other candidates this winter, as the Padres, Royals, Cubs, Angels, Pirates and Giants, at the very least, will be seeking new skippers. The Phillies and Mets could yet join them in that regard, as rumors surrounding the status of Gabe Kapler and Mickey Callaway continue to swirl.
Girardi, who’ll turn 55 later this month, has spent 11 seasons as a big league manager and compiled a 910-710 record during regular-season play. He was at the helm for the Yankees’ most recent World Series win back in 2009 and has an overall record of 28-24 in postseason play. Given his track record and vocal stance on wanting to manage again, Girardi will join Joe Maddon among the more high-profile candidates seeking a new opportunity this winter.
Atkins: Blue Jays Will Prioritize Pitching, Increase Offseason Spending
The Blue Jays and their fans were surely excited to see a potential wave of young talent reach the Majors, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio all debuting in 2019, but the team’s pitching proved to be a disaster. Toronto starters posted a combined 5.25 ERA, and that number includes Marcus Stroman‘s pre-trade contributions. Cut out his 124 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball, and non-Stroman Blue Jays starters recorded a 5.74 ERA.
As such, it was hardly a surprise to hear general manager Ross Atkins declare that his organization plans to “look for pitching in every possible way” this offseason when meeting with the media yesterday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). That’s probably a bit of hyperbole, as no one’s expecting the Jays to be prime suitors for Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner. However, Atkins also suggested that simply acquiring filler won’t be good enough. Rather, the the Jays need arms they can “count on” to “contribute in significant ways.”
Currently, the Blue Jays’ rotation is virtually bereft of certainty. Trent Thornton led Toronto starters with 139 1/3 innings. But while he showed an ability to miss bats and had some positive stretches, the collective results (5.04 ERA, 4.80 FIP) were lackluster. No other pitcher currently on the Jays’ roster even tossed 70 innings as a starter. Right-hander Jacob Waguespack managed a 4.13 ERA with lesser peripherals in 65 1/3 innings. Injuries wiped out Ryan Borucki‘s season. Veteran Matt Shoemaker gave the Jays 28 2/3 innings with a 1.57 ERA (3.95 FIP) before suffering an ACL tear early in the season. Lefty Anthony Kay, acquired in the Stroman trade, should get a chance to log a high volume of innings next year.
The Blue Jays, notably, still have Shoemaker under club control. He signed last winter after being non-tendered by the Angels but only had four-plus years of service time. He’s still shy of six years of service, meaning the Blue Jays can control him via arbitration. Atkins didn’t tip his hand with regard to Shoemaker’s status, though Nicholson-Smith suggests that Shoemaker is open to a multi-year deal (Twitter link). Such an arrangement, presumably, would buy out Shoemaker’s final arbitration season and give Toronto an additional year of relatively cheap control. Simply retaining Shoemaker via arbitration wouldn’t be an onerous financial commitment, as his 2019 salary checked in at just $3.5MM.
Realistically, though, the Blue Jays shouldn’t fret much over any levels of spending. Toronto has only $29MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2020, and their arbitration class only features one player in line for a notable raise: closer Ken Giles, who’ll be an offseason trade candidate anyway. Giles is due a raise on this season’s $6.3MM salary. Beyond him, Shoemaker, Devon Travis ($1.925MM in 2019), Ryan Tepera ($1.525MM), Brandon Drury ($1.3MM), Ryan Dull ($860K), Derek Law (pre-arb) and Luke Maile (pre-arb) are the only players who are in line for raises. Travis, Dull and Maile are non-tender candidates.
To that end, Atkins indicated that the Jays plan to spend more aggressively this winter than in the past two offseasons, stating that the “overall outlay will be more significant” than last year while voicing a willingness to add salary in trades (Twitter link via Nicholson-Smith). Even looking past the market’s elite options, there’ll be useful starters for the Blue Jays to pursue. Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel and Tanner Roark are among the many second-tier options in free agency, and the trade market should offer additional names. Toronto isn’t lacking in outfield options that could be made available to other teams, with Anthony Alford, Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jonathan Davis and Billy McKinney all on the 40-man roster (in addition to the well-compensated Randal Grichuk and breakout left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr.). None of that bunch is going to headline a deal for a marquee name, of course, but any could be a piece in a theoretical deal.
Looking to the team’s collection of position players, that glut of outfielders and the aforementioned emergence of several key infielders should give the team a promising (but still raw) lineup. Bichette and Biggio will comprise the team’s middle-infield tandem next season, and Atkins emphasized that the Jays are committed to Guerrero at third base, though they want him to improve his conditioning in the offseason. Danny Jansen showed pop and elite defensive skills behind the plate, even if his overall .207/.279/.360 batting line was obviously weak. He had a fairly productive three-month stretch from June to August (.243/.310/.459, 10 homers in 203 plate appearances), so there’s some hope for better days ahead.
A reunion with Justin Smoak at first base isn’t out of the question, Nicholson-Smith tweets, but the Jays have Rowdy Tellez as an option there and will likely look at more defensively versatile options in free agency. “It’d be nice to consider alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well,” Atkins said. Speculatively speaking, Todd Frazier, Neil Walker, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko are among the many infield options on this year’s market who have experience at multiple positions, and as with the pitching market, there will be alternatives available via trade.
It should be noted that a promise of increased offseason spending doesn’t necessarily mean an increase in the team’s Major League payroll. Toronto opened the 2019 season at $114.5MM, and given the numerous pre-arbitration players occupying key roster spots, upping the actual payroll would mean taking on perhaps more than $60MM in 2020 salary alone. That may technically be plausible based on previous payroll levels — the Jays peaked at $163MM in 2017 — but team president Mark Shapiro cautioned against being the team that “wins the offseason” only to fall shy of postseason play. A more aggressive winter seems certain, but the Jays probably won’t be going for broke just yet.