MLB Trade Rumors

We checked in last night on the status of some position players whose teams will be deciding on club options at the end of the year. This morning, we’ll do the same with regard to hurlers. As before, we aren’t considering player options/opt-outs (like Johnny Cueto and the Giants) or mutual options (as with Mike Minor and the Royals).

• Tony Barnette, RP, Rangers — $4MM option, $250K buyout: Barnette produced great results last year with less-than-exciting peripherals. In 2017, he’s got double-digit strikeouts per nine but also owns a 5.55 ERA — owing to a high BABIP, low strand rate, and double the rate of homers allowed. With a healthy 14.2% swinging-strike rate to support the strikeout numbers, Barnette may actually still represent a nice value for Texas.
• Jerry Blevins, RP, Mets — $7MM option, $1MM buyout: There have been a few ups and downs, but on the whole Blevins has been a quality member of the Mets’ pen once again. He’s carrying 12.4 K/9 on a 14.1% swinging-strike rate that’s easily a career best. New York would be hard pressed to find a similar power lefty in free agency for a more appealing price.
• Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants — $12MM option, $1.5MM buyout: There was never any question of this option being picked up, even when MadBum suffered a significant injury earlier in the year. He’s back and has been plenty effective, so any slight doubt is completely gone; whether the sides will attempt a new extension this winter, though, remains to be seen.
• Matt Cain, SP/RP, Giants — $21MM option, $7.5MM buyout: Despite the high buyout tag, this one has long seemed mostly a foregone conclusion to be declined. Cain has just never rediscovered his pre-injury form and was finally bumped to the pen. He is carrying an abysmal 4.7% swinging-strike rate on the year — nearly half his career average and the lowest in the game among pitchers with at least 20 innings.
• R.A. Dickey, SP, Braves — $8MM option, $500K buyout: Dickey is beffuddling hitters with his knuckler about as much as he has in the prior four seasons, with a solid 4.03 ERA over 134 frames. Atlanta still needs to fill out the rotation for 2018, so this seems like a pretty easy “yes.”
• Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Rays — $2MM option: We haven’t heard much of Eovaldi’s progress as he works back from elbow surgery, but that’s not all that surprising given the expected timetable for his procedure — a second Tommy John that also included a flexor tendon repair. The Rays still have some time to decide whether to continue their investment in the talented hurler, who could be an interesting asset if he’s able to get back to the mound.
• Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mariners — $13MM option, $2MM buyout: It’s hard to see the M’s taking on the $11MM difference here. Gallardo has allowed over five earned runs per nine for the second consecutive year and ERA estimators (4.96 FIP; 5.02 xFIP; 5.16 SIERA) see the results as a roughly accurate reflection of his performance. It is worth noting, though, that Gallardo has gained about two miles per hour on his average fastball, which may increase his appeal as a turnaround option in free agency.
• Matt Garza, SP, Brewers — $5MM option: Garza has posted solid results, with a 3.68 ERA over 88 frames, though the peripherals (6.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 42.4% groundball rate) don’t excite and ERA estimators are a bit skeptical. Assuming he remains healthy and generally effective the rest of the way, there’s little reason for the Brewers to pass on such a reasonably priced rotation piece.
• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals — $12MM option, $500K buyout: The veteran lefty has long underperformed ERA estimators, but now it’s just the opposite as he carries a career-low 2.66 ERA through 142 1/3 innings. He’s no longer suppressing home runs like he once did, has lost another 1.5 mph on his average fastball, and has benefited from a 85.1% strand rate and .241 BABIP. Still, this is an easy pick-up as things stand … and likely won’t be a choice anyway, as the option will vest once Gio reaches 180 frames — which he’s all but assured of doing for the first time since 2013.
• Craig Kimbrel, RP, Red Sox — $13MM option, $1MM buyout: Last year’s 5.1 BB/9 walk rate is firmly in the rearview mirror and Kimbrel is back as perhaps the game’s most dominant reliever. His 44.6% K%-BB% is a career high, as is his league-leading 20.6% swinging-strike rate. Which is to say, there’s really nothing more to discuss; he’s coming back to Boston barring a catastrophic injury.
• Boone Logan, RP, Indians — $7MM option, $1MM buyout: A lat strain will force Logan out for a lengthy stretch, perhaps the rest of the season. That certainly changes the picture somewhat on the option. Logan has remained a somewhat frustrating pitcher: his strand rate has hovered around 60% over the past two years even as he continues to post compelling swinging-strike, strikeout, and groundball numbers. Cleveland had handled him very deliberately early on, giving him just 21 frames over 38 appearances, and that relatively narrow role could reduce his utility to the team in the future. This one could conceivably go either way, and may yet be impacted by Logan’s recovery efforts between now and decision time (five days after the World Series).
• Wade Miley, SP, Orioles — $12MM option, $500K buyout: Even looking beyond the ugly results — a second consecutive year with a 5+ ERA — this has been a rough season for the lefty. He has allowed 5.2 BB/9, nearly double his career average, while coughing up home runs on nearly one-fifth of the flies put in play against him. Baltimore needs arms, but it seems reasonable to anticipate that the club will find more appealing ways to spend the $11.5MM gap between the option price and buyout.
• Matt Moore, SP, Giants — $9MM option, $1MM buyout: It’s tough to know what to make of the 28-year-old, who just hasn’t been all that effective this year after seeming to show improved form in 2016. San Francisco made a rather significant investment in trade assets to get him at last year’s deadline, and will value the chance to control Moore at a reasonable rate for 2019, but the results are surely troubling. Odds are the Giants will decide the upside outweighs the risk here.
• Ricky Nolasco, SP, Angels — $13MM option, $1MM buyout: Home runs have beena big problem for Nolasco this year, as he has allowed nearly two per nine on an 18.1% HR/FB rate. Otherwise, he looks like much the same pitcher as ever and even sports a career-high 11.1% swinging-strike rate. He has also worked out of the zone more than ever before, but hasn’t seen a major jump in walk rate. It’s a pretty hefty price tag, but perhaps it’s not totally inconceivable that the injury-riddled Halos would value the chance to retain the typically durable veteran.
• Martin Perez, SP, Rangers — $6MM option, $2.45MM buyout: The first of three option years, this provision was obviously intended to be exercised unless things really turned south. Perez has not been very good, with a 5.46 ERA and just 5.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 with a lower-than-usual 45.8% groundball rate, but he’s young and evidently healthy. The Rangers need the innings and the price is right.
• Glen Perkins, RP, Twins — $6.5MM option, $700K buyout: Major shoulder surgery has drastically altered his career path, but the former Twins closer is finally nearing a return. It’s still possible the club could find appeal in this price tag for the respected veteran, though he’ll have to show it on the mound over the next seven weeks.
• Anibal Sanchez, SP/RP, Tigers — $16MM option, $5MM buyout: There were some intriguing peaks at one point over the summer, but the 33-year-old’s overall body of work does not inspire confidence — particularly, the fact that he has been torched for nearly two-and-a-half dingers per nine. There’s no realistic chance that Detroit will take on the extra $11MM to keep Sanchez.
• Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox — $12.5MM option, $1MM buyout: He’s been even better than advertised. As with Kimbrel, it’s an easy call for the Sox.
• Huston Street, RP, Angels — $10MM option, $1MM buyout: The 34-year-old has turned in four scoreless appearances since finally returning to the bump, which is somewhat promising but also far too little to serve as the basis for an assessment. Odds are this’ll remain too steep a price for the Halos to pay, though, especially given the backdrop of multiple injuries, age, and a forgettable 2016 campaign.
• Josh Tomlin, SP, Indians — $3MM option, $750K buyout: The sticker price is just so reasonable here that it’s hard to see Cleveland passing. Tomlin has been mostly himself despite a 5.38 ERA. He’s averaging less than one walk and just over seven strikeouts per nine innings. As ever, he’s susceptible to the long ball. The difference between this year’s iffy results and his solid work over the prior two seasons? A .328 BABIP and 65.6% strand rate. Tomlin still looks like a solid back-end starter and remains a bargain.

With about two-thirds of the season in the books, elements of the coming offseason player market are coming into focus. Before we know the full slate of players on the open market, though, teams will first have a chance to determine the fates of some veterans who can be controlled through contract options. We’ll assess those here. Note that we are only looking at situations where the team will make the call exclusively. So we are not looking at player options/opt-outs (as with the Tigers and Justin Upton) or mutual options (e.g., Adam Lind and the Nationals).

Here are the position players whose contracts include club options for 2018:

• Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros — $6MM option: Altuve is turning in an MVP-caliber campaign, making this perhaps the easiest offseason decision in the game. The bigger question here is whether Houston will look to try for an extension with Altuve controlled only through 2019.
• Alexi Amarista, INF, Rockies — $2.5MM option, $150K buyout: Amarista carries a 46 wRC+ on the year. While he offers defensive versatility, like most utility types, he continues to grade as a sub-replacement-level player. Odds are he’ll go back to the open market.
• Michael Brantley, OF, Indians — $11MM option, $1MM buyout: The 30-year-old isn’t playing to his prior standard and will perhaps always carry some health questions, but he has produced at a solidly above-average rate with the bat. This figures to be a fairly easy pick-up for Cleveland unless a new shoulder problem crops up over the coming months.
• Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets — $8.5MM option, $2MM buyout: Reports on the Mets’ intentions with regard to Cabrera have varied, and it seems an open question whether the team will commit the extra $6.5MM to keep Cabrera. The switch-hitter could provide options at second and third, while also giving the team an insurance policy at short, and he’s still hitting near the league-average rate. What really stands out when looking at his stat line, though, is his abysmal baserunning grade: by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR, Cabrera has detracted more value on the basepaths than any player in the league has contributed.
• Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers — $17.5MM option, $2.5MM buyout: While Ethier could still be ready to return late in the year after failing to suit up to this point, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers take on that salary.
• Tyler Flowers, C, Braves — $4MM option, $300K buyout: Even if you don’t believe the 31-year-old can keep up his prodigious efforts at the plate — he carries a .368 BABIP after checking in at .366 last year — he’s an easy choice to stay in Atlanta. There’s little chance the club could find a more appealing solution on the open market at this rate of pay.
• Logan Forsythe, 2B, Dodgers — $8.5MM option, $1MM buyout: When the Dodgers shipped out Jose De Leon to get Forsythe, the assumption was this contract would stay on the books. That’s no longer clear, as the veteran has posted a tepid .238/.365/.318 slash — somewhat oddly exhibiting a near-doubling of his career walk rate (to 16.0%) combined with a total collapse of power (.079 isolated slugging, three home runs).
• J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles — $14MM option, $2MM buyout: Long an outstanding defender with an all-or-nothing approach at the plate, Hardy has seen his glovework grades slip even as his batting line has fallen to a career-worst .211/.248/.308 level. With a lengthy DL stint added to the mix, he’s clearly heading to free agency — though perhaps he can still boost his market standing if he can make it back and show more down the stretch.
• Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tigers — $10MM option, $5MM buyout: The bat hasn’t kept pace with its output from 2016, but Kinsler still earns excellent grades in the field. With only a $5MM gap between the option and the buyout, it’s all but certain he’ll be retained. What isn’t yet known is whether and where the Tigers will trade him.
• Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics — $6MM option, $1MM buyout: It remains surprising that Lowrie wasn’t dealt at the deadline, as he has turned in a quality all-around year. While he has fallen off a bit at the plate of late, he seems a useful piece and the 2018 salary is easily justified. Oakland could keep him to aid the transition to a younger roster, or clear him out to make way. A deal could come this August or at any point over the winter.
• Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates — $14.75MM option, $1MM buyout: Yeah, Cutch is back. The Bucs won’t face any questions about the option, but there’ll be plenty of speculation — once again — about a trade.
• Chris Stewart, C, Pirates — $1.5MM option, $250K buyout: The 35-year-old has rarely been all that productive offensively, but he has struggled worse than ever before in 2017. It’s a cheap contract, to be sure, but Pittsburgh will need to consider whether it’s better served finding another option to back up Francisco Cervelli.