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NL West Notes: Seager, Rockies, Padres

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Dodgers phenom Corey Seager feels “normal-ish”, according to manager Dave Roberts (via an article by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Seager was injured while sliding into second base during the game in which the Dodgers clinched the NLDS series victory, and hasn’t done any baseball activity since then. Roberts adds that Seager won’t be traveling with the team to Chicago, though that could change under certain circumstances. Regardless, Seager can’t be added to the NLCS roster at this point unless someone on the current roster gets injured. In that case, the player Seager replaces would be ineligible for the Dodgers’ World Series roster, should the team advance that far. The 23-year old Seager batted .295/.375/.479 with 22 home runs during the regular season, and ranked first among all NL shortstops in fWAR. His situation will certainly be worth monitoring closely.

More from baseball’s NL West division…

  • In a mailbag article for MLB.com, Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding points out that Colorado used only eight total starting pitchers this past season, which was incredibly lucky considering they averaged 12 starters per season from 2011-2016. Seven of those eight starters are set to return in 2018, and while they have youth on their side, Harding wonders how the organization will adapt if their luck with pitcher injuries regresses to the mean. The Rockies playoff hopes for the next few years will rest largely on the health and development of their young starters, including Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.
  • Speaking of mailbag articles for MLB.com, Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell suggests that San Diego’s bullpen-related offseason plans will largely hinge on whether any teams will meet GM A.J. Preller’s asking price on lefty Brad Hand. If Hand is traded, the Padres’ bullpen will likely need a significant overhaul, including some spending on established major leaguers. However, if he isn’t moved and the club is able to retain Craig Stammen, their relief corps may only need a few tweaks for 2018. To say that Hand essentially was the Padres’ bullpen in 2017 isn’t an exaggeration; his 3.89 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranked fourth-best among all relievers in baseball. All other Padres relievers combined for -1.76 WPA, and Stammen was the only other arm in their ’pen to exceed 0.20.

Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade

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After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.

Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.

The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.

So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.

With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.

Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.

Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Daniel Webb Dies In ATV Accident

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Former White Sox pitcher Daniel Webb passed away due to an ATV accident last night, according to a report from wpsdlocal6.com. Chris Davis, Sheriff of Humphreys County, confirmed the news via telephone.

The Blue Jays selected Webb in the 18th round of the 2009 June amateur draft, but the Kentucky native spent most of his career in the White Sox organization. During his time at the MLB level, he compiled 110 relief innings at the major league level, including 67 2/3 innings in 2014 with a 3.99 ERA. Webb showed promise with a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, but hadn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016.

The White Sox issued the following statement in the wake of the 28-year old’s passing.

“Daniel left many friends within the Chicago White Sox organization, and we are all shocked and stunned by the news of last night’s terrible accident. He was a terrific young man with a full life ahead of him. All thoughts and prayers go to his family and friends as they deal with today’s tragic news.”

MLBTR sends its condolences to Webb’s family and friends during this difficult time.

East Notes: Yankees, Sox, Nats, Orioles

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With the Yankees intent on getting under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders if they’ll shop relievers Dellin Betances and Adam Warren in the offseason. While the two, especially Betances, are high-end bullpen options, the Yankees may not want to spend the projected $7.5MM on the pair given that their relief corps would still be loaded without one or both. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle will stick around next season, and all four of them are currently ahead of Betances and Warren in the Yankees’ late-game pecking order. Both Betances and Warren are likely to file for larger arbitration requests than their projected figures, Sherman notes, which could be especially interesting in the former’s case. After all, the relationship between Betances and the Yankees took a sour turn during the arbitration process last winter.

  • Landing a big bat, adding depth in their rotation and middle infield, and finding another setup man could be on the Red Sox’s offseason to-do list, Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. Regarding Boston’s power-needy offense, which we touched on earlier today, Jennings lists impending free agents J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jay Bruce as possible fits.
  • The Nationals’ playoff trip this year ended in more disappointment for the franchise, but manager Dusty Baker’s return still looks likely, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The future of Baker, who doesn’t have a contract for next year, is one of the biggest offseason questions facing the Nationals, opines Janes. In terms of their roster, the Nats will have to make decisions on whether to re-sign impending free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, whether to upgrade behind the plate and in the rotation, and how to assemble their bench, Janes adds.
  • The Orioles’ coaches will see their contracts run out at the end of the month, but the team still hasn’t made a final decision on Buck Showalter’s staff for next season, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. If Showalter has his way, all of his assistants – including beleaguered pitching coach Roger McDowell – will return, per Kubatko. However, general manager Dan Duquette didn’t rule out changes when speaking to reporters on the final day of the season. “All those things with the coaches and the staffing, all those things need to be addressed, and I think you have to look carefully at them when you don’t have a strong year and see if there are some adjustments that you can make,” Duquette said.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Santana

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The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.

Carlos Santana

If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.

The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.

Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.

Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.

To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.

Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.

Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Athletics posted their third straight last-place finish in the American League West in 2017, but for the first time since their fateful Josh Donaldson trade in November 2014, the franchise has a clear direction. Not only did the A’s commit to a full rebuild in the middle of the season, but a couple of their prospective long-term core pieces – first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman – burst on the scene to provide immediate hope and contribute to a roster that closed the season on a 17-7 run. Led by executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst, the A’s will continue with a mostly youth-oriented approach in 2018, which means a fairly quiet winter could be in the offing.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

Athletics Depth Chart; Athletics Payroll Information

Evidenced by its handful of veteran signings in free agency last offseason, Oakland’s hope was to piece together a roster capable of pushing for a wild-card spot in 2017. But the A’s ended up well out of contention by summertime, paving the way for them to cut ties with several established players, most of whom were on expiring contracts. The primary exceptions were relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson and starter Sonny Gray, a trio of controllable players whose trades brought back returns which could benefit Oakland for years to come.

Of the A’s top 15 prospects, five came from those deals, per MLBPipeline.com. Doolittle and Madson netted left-hander Jesus Luzardo (No. 5) and third baseman Sheldon Neuse (No. 14) from the Nationals (plus major league reliever Blake Treinen), while Gray’s two-plus years of team control garnered outfielder Dustin Fowler (No. 3), infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo (No. 4) and righty James Kaprielian (No. 10) from the Yankees.

The Gray deal was especially notable not just for the prospect haul the A’s picked up, but because it was the end result of multiple years of trade rumors centering on the hurler. The A’s orchestrated a weekslong bidding war for Gray before moving him at the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31, and though two of the farmhands they acquired for him are on the mend from significant injuries, they still made out well in the swap. Fowler’s recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon, but the soon-to-be 23-year-old will have a legitimate chance to serve as the A’s starting center fielder from the get-go in 2018, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. And Kaprielian, who’s working back from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in April, could enter Oakland’s rotation sometime next year.

The aforementioned prospects are each important pieces of an ascending farm system, one the A’s could further bolster by selling well-performing veterans such as slugger Khris Davis and infielder Jed Lowrie in the coming months. However, they seem inclined to keep the pair. Fresh off his second 40-home run season in a row, Davis has only two years of arbitration control remaining and is projected to earn upward of $11MM in 2018. Despite Davis’ declining control and increasing price tag, A’s brass wants him in the fold.

“He fits in perfectly here,” Beane said after the season, while Forst brushed off concerns about Davis’ rising salary.

“If it is, it is,” Forst said of Davis’ arbitration case potentially being difficult. “I don’t think you could overstate the impact he has on the rest of the lineup.”

Lowrie, meanwhile, is down to his last year of control, but the A’s will pick up his affordable option and write him in as their starting second baseman for 2018. Doing so will allow them to give top prospect Franklin Barreto further seasoning at Triple-A after a rough 2017 debut in the majors, albeit over just 76 plate appearances.

With Davis and Lowrie seemingly returning next year, the majority of the A’s lineup already looks set. The infield will typically feature Olson, Chapman, Lowrie and shortstop Marcus Semien, while Fowler, Davis, Matt Joyce, Boog Powell and Chad Pinder will divvy up most of the reps in the outfield. For now, the designated hitter slot looks as if it’ll primarily belong to corner infielder Ryon Healy, but the A’s could attempt to move him to strengthen their bullpen, according to Slusser. The 25-year-old Healy isn’t even scheduled to reach arbitration until after the 2019 season, which could certainly appeal to teams searching for a long-term offensive piece, though he’s coming off a so-so year at the plate. While Healy belted 25 homers for a team that finished fourth in the majors in long balls (234), his .271/.302/.451 line across 605 PAs hovered around league average, thanks in part to a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate (3.8). Healy wasn’t much better in that category in his 283-PA rookie year, 2016, when he logged a 4.2 percent mark that a .305/.337/.524 line helped mask.

Regardless of whether Healy sticks around, the A’s will have a chance to build on an offense that placed seventh in the league in wRC+ (102) this year, particularly if they get better production from behind the plate. The A’s catchers, primarily Bruce Maxwell, now-Brewer Stephen Vogt and Josh Phegley, combined to hit just .217/.298/.334 this year. The lefty-swinging Maxwell was the best of the three in 2017 and is likely to collect most of the playing time at catcher next season, but the A’s could at least stand to improve over the righty-hitting Phegley. The 29-year-old non-tender candidate batted a meek .201/.255/.336 in 161 trips to the plate and, like Maxwell, ranked among Baseball Prospectus’ worst pitch framers. Fortunately for Oakland, there will be a few reasonably priced upgrades over Phegley available in free agency, including Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley and Rene Rivera.

It’s fair to expect the A’s to add a catcher via the open market, but taking that path to find a starting pitcher may not be in the cards.

“The preferred route is to create the pitching staff organically. That’s where we’ve had the most success,” Beane said.

A’s starters ranked 20th in the game in ERA (4.74) and 21st in fWAR (7.9) in 2017, and much of that production came from the departed Gray. Despite that subpar performance, though, the A’s still have a mishmash of 20-something rotation candidates they may prefer to go forward with, including two somewhat established options – Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman – as well as Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs (recovering from hip surgery), Daniel Mengden, Jesse Hahn, Paul Blackburn and Daniel Gossett, among others. There’s also Kaprielian and lefty A.J. Puk, the sixth overall pick in 2016, knocking on the door. But even though Beane isn’t gung-ho on free agency, the A’s could still reel in one of the many soon-to-be available veteran stopgaps capable of eating innings. Notably, only three A’s surpassed 100 frames in 2017.

Oakland’s rotation clearly had problems this season, but the bullpen didn’t help the club’s cause. A’s relievers registered the majors’ sixth-highest ERA (4.57) and ranked just 19th in strikeout percentage (22.0). And remember, that was with Doolittle and Madson around for a large portion of the campaign. Treinen, who came over in that trade, was outstanding for Oakland, though he’s the only returning standout in its relief corps. Santiago Casilla, Ryan Dull, Liam Hendriks, Chris Hatcher and Daniel Coulombe remain controllable for 2018, but nobody from that group was a world-beater this year. So, whether it’s via trade or free agency, it would behoove the A’s to upgrade their bullpen. Beane hasn’t been hesitant to use the market to pick up relievers recently, having added Madson, Casilla and John Axford over the previous two offseasons, and could do so again. Free agency will overflow with possibilities, many of them appealing and affordable. Speculatively, with Coulombe as their only semi-established lefty option, the A’s could look to a southpaw like San Jose native Jake McGee, Brian Duensing, Tony Watson or Fernando Abad for late-game improvement.

Given their new course, any players the A’s go after in free agency during the coming months are likely to be modestly priced Band-Aids, meaning there won’t be another Edwin Encarnacion-type pursuit this winter. Beane noted at his season-ending press conference that the A’s are aiming to take a “disciplined” course in the early stages of their rebuild, revealing that their primary concern is to identify which youngsters are bona fide linchpins worth locking up for the long haul. As such, any lengthy deals the A’s hand out prior to next season are likely to go to players who are already in their organization.

Poll: Improving Boston’s Offense

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From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox didn’t thrive in Year 1 of the post-David Ortiz era. While Boston finished 93-69 and won its second straight American League East title in 2017, the club wasn’t the hitting juggernaut it had been throughout Ortiz’s tenure from 2003-16. The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored six times during that 14-year span, including in 2016, and only landed outside the majors’ top 10 in runs and FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric one time apiece – in 2014, when they placed 18th and 25th in those categories.

This year’s Red Sox, whom Houston dismissed from the playoffs in a four-game ALDS, did cross the plate the 10th-most times in the league, but they fell to 22nd in wRC+ after the Ortiz-led outfit ranked first last season. The majority of the Red Sox’s regulars posted mediocre numbers at the plate, and according to Statcast’s xwOBA metric (via Baseball Savant), the only ones who outperformed their results were Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez.

An Ortiz-esque thumper obviously would have been of use to the Red Sox this year, and it’s possible president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will attempt to find one in the offseason. That said, the vast majority of Boston’s position player group already looks settled for next year. Outfielders Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, third baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz’s DH successor, Ramirez, are locks. Sure, the Red Sox could stand to improve offensively behind the plate, where catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined to rank a below-average 19th out of the majors’ 30 teams in wRC+, but each offered significant value in the pitch-framing department (per Baseball Prospectus). And with Jonathan Lucroy having fallen off in 2017, there don’t appear to be any surefire upgrades set to hit free agency next month.

J.D. Martinez

While the aforementioned players are good bets to return to Boston next year, the status of center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. looks less certain. The Red Sox could trade the 27-year-old Bradley, who’s controllable for three more seasons, move Benintendi from left to center and reel in an offensive force such as J.D. Martinez or Justin Upton via free agency to join Beninendi and Betts in the grass. Martinez and Upton (if he opts out of his contract with the Angels) will come at much higher prices than Bradley, who will earn around $6MM in 2018, but the righty-swingers would likely mash at Fenway Park. And it’s worth noting that Dombrowski has already acquired Martinez in the past. When he was the Tigers’ general manager in 2014, Dombrowski took a flyer on the then-struggling Martinez.

Despite Dombrowski’s familiarity with Martinez, it’s possible the Red Sox will elect to stick with Bradley. Although he had a subpar year offensively, batting just .245/.323/.402 in 541 plate appearances, he was an easily above-average hitter the previous two seasons. Further, even if he doesn’t revisit his 2015-16 levels with the bat, Bradley’s still capable of providing surplus value in other ways. In fact, Bradley ranked third at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (nine) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (4.2) in 2017. He also fared nicely on the bases, placing 11th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. So, even in a down 2017, Bradley was still part of the overall solution for the Sox.

It’s up in the air whether Boston will have a new outfield alignment next year, whereas change at first base looks highly likely. Moreland is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Red Sox don’t seem to have a ready-made replacement on hand. Prospect Sam Travis, 24, is fresh off an uninspiring year at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he hit for almost no power across 342 PAs (six home runs, .105 ISO), and didn’t distinguish himself during an 83-PA major league debut in Boston. The Red Sox would be hard pressed to count on him, then, which could point them toward free agency or the trade market for a first baseman.

Free agents-to-be Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce and Yonder Alonso all had successful offensive seasons in 2017 and could land on Boston’s radar. On the other hand, Dombrowski has never been shy about making deals and is only a year removed from swinging a blockbuster with the rebuilding White Sox, who have a star first baseman and potential trade candidate in Jose Abreu. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Abreu and his two remaining seasons of team control would warrant a quality haul, but the right-handed slugger and Fenway Park would make for an enticing match.

Whether the Red Sox make a play for Abreu or another high-profile hitter over the winter, it does seem fair to expect an offensive upgrade to come in some form. What do you think Dombrowski will do?

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Red Sox make any major offseason moves to improve their offense?
Yes 88.29% (5,524 votes)
No 11.71% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 6,257

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Braves Investigation: “Unprecedented” Violations

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SUNDAY: Hart may not be innocent in this matter, Bill Shanks of the Macon Telegraph reports in a piece that’s worth reading in full. He “knew everything,” according to two scouts who spoke with Shanks, with one source saying that “(Hart) is just as guilty as Coppy. He helped create this mess by letting Coppy do what he wanted to do.” If true, Hart could be on his way out of Atlanta. His contract is set to expire after the World Series, when the league is likely to announce the results of an investigation that continues to see allegations pour in, per Shanks. MLB investigators have not spoken with Hart, Shanks writes, but they have interviewed Coppolella multiple times, including at his house, and Blakely, among other past and current Braves employees. The league could also talk with some of the Braves’ international scouts, Shanks adds. Even after his resignation, the Braves offered Coppolella a severance package – a move that “amazed” several scouts, Shanks relays – but he rejected it and has hired an attorney, which could suggest that lawsuits are forthcoming.

THURSDAY: The investigation into apparent international signing violations by the Braves has already claimed the jobs of GM John Coppolella and special assistant Gordon Blakely, but the investigation is still ongoing. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has a lengthy update (subscription required and recommended) on the matter, citing sources that tell him the team’s “violations are unprecedented in scope.”

Even as the Atlanta organization weighs its next steps, which will necessarily include a replacement for Coppolella and others, the league continues to dig. There’s no evidence to this point that president of baseball operations John Hart had knowledge or involvement in the transgressions, per Rosenthal, though he also hasn’t yet had his sit-down with investigators.

Whether or not the matter can be traced higher than Coppolella will obviously play a role in the ultimate punishment. That said, Rosenthal emphasizes that commissioner Rob Manfred could potentially also cite lack of “oversight” or “institutional control” over the now-deposed GM. Of course, it’s not as if Coppolella was just a rogue, lower-level employee; he was entrusted with significant decision-making authority and was the face of the front office to the public.

We heard earlier today that former Braves exec and current Royals GM Dayton Moore is not expected to depart for Atlanta — a possibility that many have cited as a potential out for the Braves, but one that might require the departure of Hart (as well as interest from Moore and permission by Kansas City). And based upon Rosenthal’s report, it seems the expectation is that Hart will continue to lead the charge in finding a new GM and overseeing a broader realignment of internal personnel.

Timelines on all of these threads — the league investigation, hiring of a GM, and assessment and actions on current Braves employees — are not yet known. There are a few weeks yet to go before the organization will begin making key offseason decisions, and the continued presence of Hart would presumably help with continuity. Still, it’s obviously imperative for the Braves that they receive and deal with the punishment that’s expected while lining things up for a hectic offseason to come.

Just what kinds of sanctions might be anticipated? Per Rosenthal, “a substantial fine, a loss of prospects and restrictions on the Braves’ participation in the international market” are all on the table. The devil here is in the details, of course, as that slate of possible demerits could either be relatively light or rather compelling, depending upon how extensively applied.

Broadly speaking, we still don’t know how all of this will turn out. And it’s far from clear that the Braves will be fully diverted from their course — which, the organization hoped, would soon reach a stage of contending. But it’s also not yet apparent just how president John Schuerholz or the corporate ownership at Liberty Media feel about things. And given the evident severity of the misdeeds committed, it certainly seems as if further internal turmoil can be anticipated before the team is ready again to return its sole focus to the on-field product.

Offseason Rumblings: J.D., Grichuk, Cards, Twins, Rockies

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Along with the Diamondbacks (his current team), the Giants, Angels, Cardinals and Red Sox all stand out as potential offseason fits for impending free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes.  While the Cardinals and Red Sox already have logjams in the outfield, a trade could open up room for Martinez, notes Morosi, who adds that whether the Angels pursue the offensive superstar is going to depend on Justin Upton’s opt-out decision. The Giants, meanwhile, are in dire need of a slugger and a corner outfielder, making them arguably the most logical match for Martinez, Morosi opines.

  • Outfielder Randal Grichuk has come up as someone the Cardinals could trade, and the 26-year-old realizes he may have played his last game in their uniform. On whether he expects to be a Redbird in 2018, Grichuk told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com: “No. Not necessarily. But who knows. Anything is possible. It’s going to be a fun offseason. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to see what direction the club goes with a lot of guys. I’m excited to see what the future holds.” Grichuk has registered decent production across 1,386 career plate appearances in St. Louis (.249/.297/.488, .239 ISO) and put up back-to-back 20-home run seasons, but a lack of plate discipline has somewhat offset his impressive power and made him a trade candidate. Grichuk is projected to earn $2.8MM in 2018, his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons.
  • After Twins pitchers recorded the majors’ third-worst swinging-strike rate in 2017, team brass is hoping to build a staff capable of missing more bats, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press details. At the same time, the Twins aren’t ruling out having some pitch-to-contact types on hand. In fact, even though closers Matt Belisle and Brandon Kintzler (now with the Nationals) generated fewer swings and misses than the average reliever this season, the club’s interested in re-signing the former and reuniting with the latter in free agency, according to Berardino.
  • For the second straight offseason, the Rockies will have to work on shoring up their bullpen, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes. The Rockies signed Greg Holland and Mike Dunn to sizable contracts last winter, but Holland’s now set to opt out of his deal and head to the open market again. Colorado probably won’t be able to re-sign the closer, Saunders writes, and the fact that Holland isn’t the team’s only key reliever who could exit in free agency only worsens matters. Jake McGee and July trade acquisition Pat Neshek are also unsigned entering the offseason. Holland, McGee and Neshek were among the best options in a bullpen that made big strides from 2016 to ’17, jumping from 23rd in fWAR to sixth and last in ERA to 20th.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After preventing left fielder Yoenis Cespedes from departing in free agency last offseason, the Mets entered 2017 on the shortlist of potential contenders in the National League. But injuries and down years beset nearly all of the Mets’ top players this season, leading to a 70-win campaign and the end of Terry Collins’ run as their manager. GM Sandy Alderson & Co. are currently searching for Collins’ replacement, but regardless of who’s atop the dugout next season, roster improvements are clearly in order.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information]

The Mets were never able to get off the mat after a 10-14 April, and as the season wore on, it became obvious Alderson was going to sell the team’s free agents-to-be in the summer. Ultimately, with the exception of Jose Reyes, Alderson dealt every notable Met on an expiring contract either before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline or prior to the Aug. 31 waiver deadline. During those two months, the Mets said goodbye to outfielders Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, first baseman Lucas Duda, second baseman Neil Walker and reliever Addison Reed, among a couple others. All five of those players weighed heavily into the Mets’ franchise-record $155MM Opening Day payroll, a figure that will reportedly decrease by around $20MM in 2018. When factoring in the Mets’ arbitration projections and a couple club options they’re likely to exercise, roughly $100MM of their payroll for next season already looks settled. As such, New York probably won’t be a major player for the premier members of this offseason’s free agent class. That means Alderson is going to have to strike gold on some bargain pickups in order to help the team return to contention.

There’s a litany of question marks on the Mets’ roster heading into the offseason, but the most suspect area may be their infield. Aside from 21-year-old starting shortstop Amed Rosario – who, despite his elite prospect pedigree, struggled in his first 170 big league plate appearances – it’s anyone’s guess how the four-man unit will look in 2018. Third baseman and franchise icon David Wright will continue to loom over the Mets’ payroll through the next three years, but upper body injuries have prevented him from playing in the bigs since May 1, 2016, and he just underwent yet another surgery. The Mets can’t count on Wright to bounce back, something Alderson realizes, so they’re going to have to figure out what to do at the hot corner.

With Wright sidelined for all of 2017, Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera combined to fare decently, but that doesn’t mean any are locks to start at third next season. Reyes is probably done as a Met, while they’ll have to make a decision on Cabrera’s $8.5MM option. The Mets will have to pay Cabrera a $2MM buyout if they decline to bring him back, which looks unlikely. After all, the 31-year-old has offered solid offensive production during his two-season tenure as a Met, and he’s capable of playing multiple infield positions. Flores and Rivera also bring respectable bats and defensive versatility to the table, making them strong bets to continue factoring in across the infield.

Should Cabrera, Flores and Rivera stays in their plans (and if Rivera’s recovery from Tommy John surgery goes smoothly), the Mets might not feel obligated to make any significant changes at either third or second, but if they do, there will be some reasonably priced options available in the coming weeks. Mike Moustakas figures to be out of the Mets’ price range at third, though fellow impending free agents Todd Frazier (a New Jersey native), Eduardo Nunez and, if he’s willing to move off shortstop, Zack Cozart might be fits. Nunez or Cozart could be solutions at second, too, which also holds true for Walker – who enjoyed his stint with the Mets – Howie Kendrick and trade candidates such as Ian Kinsler (Tigers), Yangervis Solarte (Padres) and Logan Forsythe (Dodgers). The speedy Nunez stands out as an especially intriguing possibility for a team that stole the majors’ fourth-fewest bases in 2017 (58) and finished fifth from the bottom in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. Notably, no Met acquitted himself better in either of those departments this season than Reyes, so losing him and adding Nunez would essentially be a lateral move from a baserunning standpoint.

As right-handed hitters, Flores and Rivera could be platoon mates at first for the lefty-swinging Dominic Smith, but the Mets might want to find an upgrade there. Smith, who debuted with the Mets in August as a top 100 prospect, was woeful during his 183-PA introduction in 2017. While the Mets don’t necessarily have to abandon hope on the 22-year-old, they also shouldn’t hand him the job at first next season if their goal is to contend. With three minor league options remaining, Smith could go back to Triple-A while the Mets turn to a more established player at first. That’s not to suggest they’ll splurge on Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, but Bruce, Duda, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Mitch Moreland may be on their radar as more payroll-friendly types (admittedly, giving Smith another shot might make more sense than turning to the mediocre Moreland).

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted last month, Bruce could also act as a right field fill-in if breakout star Michael Conforto’s late-season shoulder surgery keeps him out of action in early 2018. Conforto’s injury somewhat clouds the outfield picture, but it still seems fair to surmise that the Mets’ alignment in the grass next season will mostly consist of him and Cespedes flanking a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo tandem in center. With those players on hand, the Mets could cut ties with expensive reserve Nori Aoki. Although Aoki performed well after signing with the Mets late in the season, his low-ceiling skillset may not be worth $6MM-plus to a team with many holes and limited spending room.

While the Mets’ group of position players has plenty of issues – including behind the plate, arguably, though it appears they’ll stay the course with Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki –  their pitching was the weaker area in 2017, surprisingly enough. The Mets’ staff looked elite coming into the year, but their starters and relievers wound up recording the majors’ third-highest ERA (5.01) and 10th-worst fWAR (10.0). Injuries were at fault to a degree, especially considering fireballer and all-world ace Noah Syndergaard was barely available on account of a torn right lat. Syndergaard sat out all of May, June, July and August, limiting him to 30 1/3 innings on the year, but he returned late in campaign and figures to take the ball on Opening Day in 2018.

If healthy, Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are about as good as it gets atop a rotation, but certainty is difficult to find anywhere else among the Mets’ cadre of starters. Former ace Matt Harvey will be back in his last year of arbitration eligibility, and while it does make sense to tender him a contract, his leash may be short next season. In his first action since undergoing July 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Harvey pitched to a 6.70 ERA/6.37 FIP across 92 2/3 innings. More of that next year could send him to the bullpen or out of New York entirely. Harvey certainly wasn’t the only Mets starter who disappointed this season, though, as Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler were also ineffective before seeing their years end early thanks to arm problems. The fact that they opened the season with durability concerns makes their truncated, below-average 2017s all the more troubling. Meanwhile, the other Mets who amassed double-digit starts – Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero – also failed to distinguish themselves as rotation locks this year. The only member of the trio without any options left is Montero, which means he could find himself out of the organization if he doesn’t at least crack the Mets’ bullpen next spring.

The Mets clearly have enough arms to fill in a rotation behind Syndergaard and deGrom, but as evidenced above, there’s substantial risk with each of those hurlers. As such, it would behoove the Mets to search for a competent innings eater – something they had in Bartolo Colon from 2014-16. If they’re not in big-spending mode, expecting to find the type of production Colon offered during that three-year stretch may be unrealistic, but there will still be affordable free agents who could help their cause. Doug Fister was on the Mets’ radar early in 2017 and is due to reach the market again after an encouraging showing in Boston. Other potential targets in free agency may include CC Sabathia (it’s hard to imagine the Yankees not re-signing him, though), Jaime Garcia, Jhoulys Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson, John Lackey, Jason Vargas, Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman, to name several.

Moving to the bullpen, there will be an array of quality relievers available in free agency, which is good news for a Mets club on the lookout for late-game stability. Jeurys Familia, like many other Mets, was both injured and unspectacular in 2017, pitching to a 4.38 ERA and walking nearly 5.5 batters per nine innings over 24 2/3 frames. His struggles played a part in the Mets’ bullpen posting the majors’ second-worst ERA (4.82) and fifth-lowest fWAR (1.2). Only one bullpen – the Brewers’ – recorded a higher walk rate than the Mets’ 4.25 per nine, while just eight induced fewer groundballs. The Mets’ woes in the walk department came despite having Reed for the majority of the season. Reed put up an extremely impressive 1.1 BB/9 in 49 innings with the Mets this year, and he’s one of several control artists headed for the open market. As shown in the previous link, no free agent-to-be combines appealing walk and grounder rates like Brandon Kintzler, who was top seven this year among impending FA relievers in each category. If signed, he’d join Familia, Jerry Blevins and AJ Ramos as the Mets’ go-to arms in high-leverage spots. However, the Mets may opt for a far more strikeout-minded reliever(s) than Kintzler, who barely punched out four batters per nine innings this season.

Evidenced in part by their pitching staff, a lot has changed in the past year for the Mets, who went into last offseason bent on keeping a playoff-caliber roster intact. Twelve months later, they’re an NL also-ran that closed this season with a dreadful record and the league’s third-worst run differential (minus-128). Better health alone will prevent such a poor finish from happening again in 2018, but management will have to make a variety of shrewd moves this winter in order to restore the club to the winning ways it displayed from 2015-16.

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