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Poll: Should The Mets Issue Neil Walker A Qualifying Offer?

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Certainly, the Mets have more pressing matters at the moment than deciding whether to issue a $16.7MM qualifying offer to second baseman Neil Walker. Keeping pace in the Wild Card race takes priority over keeping Walker in town for 2017.

That being said, the team doesn’t have much time until it’ll make a tough call on Walker, who’ll qualify for free agency just after turning 31. The QO was all but a given before Walker’s recent back surgery — he provided New York with 458 plate appearances of .282/.347/.476 production and 23 home runs before going down — but that procedure throws some uncertainty into the matter.

Let’s look at the scary side first. Walker’s back surgery addressed a herniated disk that was causing numbness in his toes and carried a risk of worsening problems. Any back issues are obviously concerning for a big league player of any kind, especially when teams haven’t had a chance to see how the player looks upon his return.

On the other hand, Walker says he’s already progressing nicely and is pain-free for the first time in quite a while. It’ll be three months until he can participate in baseball activities, but that’s plenty of time to allow him to prepare for a full Spring Training. Indeed, he seemingly suggests that it should be viewed as a net positive, as he’ll no longer be saddled by the pain. Plus, it’s hard to ignore Walker’s straight seasons of above-average offensive production from an up-the-middle position — one that he fielded at an average (per DRS) to above-average (per UZR) level in 2016 despite posting below-average metrics in prior years.

Certainly, the Mets are privy to much more detailed information about Walker’s health than we are. But the question seems to boil down to one of financial risk versus the evident upside, which could come in one of two ways. If Walker declines the QO, then the Mets would stand to recoup draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. And if he accepts, but returns to health, he could well represent an appealing investment — even at that high rate — on just a single season commitment. That’s all the more true given that New York would arguably we well-served to retain an additional veteran infielder given the ongoing back and neck-related questions surrounding David Wright and the still-undetermined tender status of first baseman Lucas Duda (who just returned in part-time duty from his own back troubles).

While Sandy Alderson and co. bat things around, let’s see where the MLBTR readership stands (link for app users):

Should The Mets Issue Neil Walker A Qualifying Offer?
Yes 69.92% (3,308 votes)
No 30.08% (1,423 votes)
Total Votes: 4,731

Pirates Aggressive In Extension Talks With Ivan Nova

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The Pirates are “aggressively trying” to come to agreement with righty Ivan Nova on an extension that would keep him out of free agency, according to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter links). We learned recently that Pittsburgh had opened dialogue with the 29-year-old.

Things do not seem to be progressing quite as smoothly as the Bucs might have hoped, though. Agent Greg Genske confirms that there have been “multiple offers” and says that “there is mutual interest,” but also made clear that “no agreement is imminent.”

Though Genske did not address his client’s asking price, prior reports put it at five years and $70MM. It remains hard to imagine the Pirates going near that amount, but the fact that discussions remain open certainly suggests that they put a high value on their most recent reclamation project. The report suggests that the organization is mindful of a weak upcoming market for pitching.

Nova has undeniably been spectacular since coming to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline — even as the organization sold some veteran pieces. His 2.93 ERA over 55 1/3 innings doesn’t really tell the true story. Nova has permitted only three walks in that span while picking up 45 strikeouts, meaning that he carries an outstanding 15.0 K/BB ratio.

With perhaps only a pair of starts to go before he’ll reach the open market, Nova doesn’t have a ton of risk at this point. A few duds could put a damper on his market, as could any kind of injury, but it isn’t as if he’s facing a full season at this point. And the Bucs can’t slap a qualifying offer on him, limiting the team’s leverage. All told, it would be surprising to see a deal come together, as there’s little downside and plenty of upside in testing the market in this case.

AL East Notes: Gibbons, Yankees, Kelly, Uehara

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports breaks down a half-dozen managers who may be on the hot seat. Among them, only Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons could be in a postseason-or-bust position, in Rosenthal’s estimation (he also lists Bryan Price of the Reds, Walt Weiss of the Rockies, Robin Ventura of the White Sox, Chip Hale of the D-backs and Brian Snitker of the Braves — each for other reasons), who points out that Gibbons was hired by former GM Alex Anthopoulos, who is no longer with the organization. Moreover, the Jays have a number of free agents, including Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey and Michael Saunders, and new baseball ops heads Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins could look to make a large transition with such a great deal of roster turnover already likely to be forthcoming.

More from the AL East…

  • With such little certainty in their rotation heading into the 2017 season, the Yankees need to focus on starting pitching this winter, opines ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). Olney surmises that the Yankees have the financial firepower to add via free agency and should target left-hander Rich Hill as a high-upside addition to the staff. While Hill doesn’t come with much in the way of certainty himself, adding him would allow the team to enter the season with a high-upside mix of rotation arms and conserve its prospect depth and make a midseason pitching acquisition at a time when a greater number of targets will be available.
  • Joe Kelly is demonstrating the potential to be a shutdown reliever for the Red Sox and could develop into a late-inning weapon in that role next season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. MacPherson spoke to Red Sox pitching analyst (and former big league pitcher) Brian Bannister about Kelly, with Bannister noting that Kelly has one of the best spin rates of any pitcher in baseball on his curveball. “As a reliever, he can showcase that much more often,” said Bannister of Kelly, who has all but cut out his changeup and slider since moving to the bullpen. “It’s as impressive of a curveball as you’ll see out of anybody. It’s just a matter of finding out how far that can take him.” Kelly would like another chance at starting, however, according to MacPherson, though the Red Sox have yet to have the necessary conversations to determine if they’ll give him that chance.
  • Sticking with the Boston ’pen, the Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes that the return of Koji Uehara has helped to stabilize what was once a weak point for the Red Sox and turn it into a strength. Uehara’s return, paired with Kelly’s emergence, has allowed Robbie Ross Jr. and Brad Ziegler to be used in more specialized high-leverage roles. Uehara’s strong work late in the season makes it imperative that the Sox try to re-sign him this winter, Cafardo opines, despite the fact that he’ll pitch next season at age 42.

Mariners Suspend Steve Clevenger Without Pay For Remainder Of Season

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The Mariners announced that catcher Steve Clevenger has been suspended without pay for the remainder of the season. Clevenger was the subject of a great deal of social media controversy yesterday following a pair of offensive, racially charged tweets.

“As soon as we became aware of the tweets posted by Steve yesterday we began to examine all of our options in regard to his standing on the team,” said GM Jerry Dipoto in the press release announcing the suspension. “Today we have informed him that he is suspended for the reminder of the season without pay.”

Clevenger, 30, was acquired in a lopsided offseason swap that sent Mark Trumbo to the Orioles in what amounted to a salary dump for the Mariners. Clevenger has been on the disabled list since late June to do a fractured hand and has appeared in just 22 games for the Mariners this year, batting .221/.303/.309 in 76 plate appearances. The former Cubs and Orioles backstop is a lifetime .227/.284/.324 hitter in 522 Major League plate appearances. The suspension will cost him about $28,000 — not an insignificant sum for a player that has yet to reach arbitration in his career — and it seems likely that it’s only a matter of time before the Mariners cut ties with him completely.

Latest On Diamondbacks’ Personnel Decisions

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There’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the status of the Diamondbacks’ front office, as both chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart have seen the deadline for their 2017 options to be exercised pushed back from the end of August until after the season. The D-backs have already parted ways with senior vice president De Jon Watson, and CEO Derrick Hall said yesterday in an appearance on the Doug and Wolf Show on 98.7 FM in Arizona that decisions on La Russa and Stewart would come quickly after the season ended.

“It’s something that will happen relatively quickly after the season,” said Hall. “I mean, we decided — along with ownership — that they wanted to wait until after the season, I understand why, and there is a thorough process going on, which is great, but I think whether it’s still going to be Tony here, whether it’s going to be Stew here, the decision has to be made quickly for them because they’ve got a lot of plans.”

La Russa himself was a guest with Doug and Wolf the previous day and suggested that he wouldn’t agree to stay with the organization in the event that ownership decided it wanted to retain him but part ways with Stewart (audio link to the interview, plus some written highlights from the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro). “I think there’s a matter of integrity, as far as personal integrity, and it’s hard for me to see agreeing to let somebody go that I don’t think should be let go,” said La Russa. “… I just think that hopefully I’m not put in that position.”

The chief baseball officer also recognized that there’s no certainty surrounding his own status, adding, “By the way, I think there’s an equally good chance that they’re going to say, ’Look, I’ve watched you for two and a half years, and we’re worse now or almost as we were in 2014, so you can just pack your bag as well.’ So I’m not assuming anything.” Furthermore, he emphasized that ownership has had enough time to evaluate both him and Stewart, stating that he wouldn’t consider any decision “unfair” in any way.

Regarding Watson, Hall explained in his interview that the SVP insisted that he wanted to know his fate before the season came to a close: “De Jon was in a place where he wanted to know (about his future) earlier, and ultimately Stew and Tony — and he did report to Tony — they decided that they were going to let him know that he was not going to be renewed.” La Russa, meanwhile, implied that there was no way they could give Watson the certainty that he desired at this point, so the decision to part ways was reached.

Hall also said in his interview that he’d be understanding if the ultimate decision was that the team wished to part with Stewart, but La Russa also walked away due to his loyalty. “I get it when Tony is defending him and always will — this is his guy, and he always has been his guy, and they have a wonderful relationship,” said Hall. “So if that scenario did come to fruition and that’s the decision Tony made, I get it. And I wouldn’t fault him for that.”

Meanwhile, manager Chip Hale recently told reporters, including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert, that the organization’s focus remains on the team. While Hale conceded that it’s “natural” to wonder about his future when he’s on his own time, he’s not dwelling on his status, nor is La Russa or Stewart. “Everybody’s been so good — Tony, Stew — we’ve talked baseball, talked about the club, how guys are doing in the Minors at different levels, who we’re going to protect [over the winter], things like that,” Hale explained. “We’re just keeping it all baseball.” While Hale is signed through the 2017 season, changes in baseball operations hierarchy often beget changes to the field staff, including the manager.

Heyman’s Latest: Braves, Lincecum, Weaver, Chapman, Giants, Panik, Odor

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FanRag’s Jon Heyman kicks off his weekly notes column by recapping seven moves that turned the Cubs from cellar-dwellers into contenders, recalling the trades that netted the team Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Addison Russell as well as the Rule 5 selection of Hector Rondon. Here are some highlights from his roundup of notes on all 30 big league clubs…

  • Brian Snitker, Terry Pendleton and Bo Porter are the Braves’ primary internal candidates to fill the managerial vacancy, while Heyman lists some potential outside candidates as Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, former Padres manager Bud Black, former Twins manager Rob Gardenhire and Royals bench coach/former Mariners skipper Don Wakamatsu.
  • The Astros will seek rotation help this offseason even if Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers get back up to full strength from their respective shoulder and elbow issues. With Doug Fister hitting the open market and the Astros receiving lackluster production from Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers, that’s not exactly a surprise.
  • Both Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver are determined to return in 2017, according to Heyman. He writes that Lincecum feels that he focused so much on strengthening his surgically repaired hip that he neglected to strengthen his arm enough, though a return to prominence for Lincecum always seemed like a fairly noted long shot after four down seasons and a significant surgical procedure.
  • The Yankees will make a run at re-signing Aroldis Chapman as a free agent this winter, Heyman writes, at least in part due to Dellin Betances’ recent struggles. While Betances’ slump has been magnified by the fact that it’s taken place in late September, he was excellent for the bulk of the time following the Yankees’ deadline sale, pitching to a 0.57 ERA in his first 15 2/3 innings following the deadline and allowing only one run in August. If the motivation to re-sign Chapman is simply to once again create an extraordinarily deep back of the bullpen, that certainly makes sense, but pursuing him in light of three poor September outings from Betances seems rather reactionary when looking at Betances’ body of work as a whole.
  • Second-half bullpen struggles have the Giants kicking themselves for not making a stronger push for Mark Melancon, Heyman reports. The Giants felt their offer was comparable to that of the Nationals, but Pittsburgh ultimately traded Melancon to D.C. in exchange for left-hander Felipe Rivero and minor league lefty Taylor Hearn. While the Giants made a run at Andrew Miller, as well, the Yankees asked for Joe Panik in exchange, which the Giants understandably found to be too steep an ask. GM Bobby Evans lamented not adding another established reliever to Heyman, and it seems likely that they’ll be in the mix for the top bullpen options this winter (Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Melancon).
  • Extension talks between the Rangers and Rougned Odor were put on hold earlier this season, as the two sides couldn’t get on the same page. Odor’s camp was seeking a deal larger than Gregory Polanco’s five-year, $35MM pact with the Pirates, and while the Rangers wanted two club options tacked onto their top offer, Odor’s reps were only willing to concede one option year. That, of course, doesn’t rule out a deal being reached further down the line, but Odor’s 31-homer season as a 22-year-old second baseman figures to give his side plenty of leverage in talks, even if that power comes with an OBP that’s barely scraping the .300 mark.

Latest On Twins’ Front Office Search

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9:34pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter) that while Mets assistant GM John Ricco has recently been linked to the Twins’ job, Ricco is no longer in the running at this point. Berardino adds to that report, tweeting that Ricco was never under heavy consideration.

9:28am: The Twins appear to be homing in on a handful of possibilities for their open president of baseball operations position, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Though the team could still conduct interviews with additional executives, it may be that the slate of candidates is already set, he adds on Twitter.

One outside option who has impressed, per Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter link), is Cubs vice president of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod. He is “well-regarded” and “well-positioned” in the Twins’ search after impressing in his early interactions with Minnesota’s top brass, according to the report.

McLeod obviously isn’t the only highly-regarded young executive under consideration. Prior reports have suggested that Rays AGM Chaim Bloom, Indians AGM Derek Falvey, and Royals AGM J.J. Picollo are also in the discussion.

Then, there’s sitting Twins interim GM Rob Antony, who rounds out the five names known to be in the hunt. Per Berardino, he’s the only internal candidate who will receive an interview. The club did consider VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff, scouting director Deron Johnson, and special assistant (and former Reds GM) Wayne Krivsky, but elected not to hold meetings with them.

Pirates Have Made Extension Offers To Ivan Nova

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Ivan Nova has been a revelation in the Pirates’ rotation since being acquired for a pair of minor leaguers (Stephen Tarpley and Tito Polo), and Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Pittsburgh is already working to prevent Nova from reaching the open market. The Pirates have made a pair of extension offers to Nova, according to Brink, but Nova’s representatives with the Legacy Agency opened talks with an asking price of $70MM over five years.

While that’s a shocking number, to be sure, given Nova’s lack of a track record, it’s not surprising to see any agency come in with high starting point. (Conversely, while Brink doesn’t report the size of Pittsburgh’s early offer, one can only imagine that it was probably considerably lower than the top of their comfort zone and than Nova’s market value.) Brink does note that the Pirates were the ones to initiate talks with Nova’s camp in the first week of September, and they came back with an increased counter-offer after hearing the early asking price. While Brink doesn’t indicate that anything is close between the two sides, discussions are still alive at this juncture.

Two months ago, that number for Nova would’ve seemed preposterous, but like many pitchers before him, Nova has experienced a renaissance in Pittsburgh. Though he finally had a rough outing in his most recent start, the 29-year-old Nova has worked to a brilliant 2.93 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against a superlative 0.5 BB/9 in 55 1/3 innings of work. He’s maintained his strong ground-ball rate (50.9 percent since the trade) and issued an unthinkable three walks to the 220 batters he’s faced. While there will, of course, be skepticism about his ability to sustain this performance (particularly the superlative command), this isn’t the first prolonged stretch of excellence that Nova has enjoyed in his career. He tossed 139 innings of 3.10 ERA ball for the Yankees in 2013, but Tommy John surgery in late April of the 2014 season prematurely halted his opportunity to build on that success.

MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently likened Nova’s emergence with the Bucs to that of J.A. Happ last season following a trade from the Blue Jays, and the comparison is apt. However, Happ was three years older than Nova at the time of their respective trades, and he was walking into a considerably stronger market for starting pitching. I’ve been slow to warm to this idea, personally, as I recently explained in the MLBTR Mailbag, but a four-year contract for Nova is looking increasingly likely on this year’s dreadful market for free-agent starters. His primary competition will be a 36-year-old Rich Hill (37 next March) and Jeremy Hellickson. However, while Hellickson is more comparably aged to Nova (29) and has been an outstanding buy-low investment for the Phillies, he’ll almost certainly have to deal with a qualifying offer this winter. Nova, though, will be free of that burden by virtue of the midseason trade that sent him from New York to Pittsburgh and made him ineligible to receive a QO.

Three Needs: Tampa Bay Rays

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MLBTR will provide a broader view of each club’s winter plans when our annual Offseason Outlook series kicks off at the end of the regular season.  Until then, the Rays are the latest team to be featured in our quick look at this season’€™s non-contenders. We’ve already covered the Angels, Brewers, and Twins.

Things fell apart this year for Tampa Bay, which entered with hopes that a deep rotation and bolstered offense would spur a return to the playoffs. Instead, the club vanished into the basement of the AL East — a place it hadn’t visited since 2007 — and ended up dealing away Matt Moore, Brandon Guyer, and Steve Pearce at the trade deadline.

Still, the most significant of those trades, the Moore swap, brought back a controllable major league asset in Matt Duffy — who, they hope, will fill a need at shortstop — and the organization continues to field a number of affordable players with reasonable promise. A full-blown rebuild seems unlikely for a team that has typically focused on remaining competitive even while hunting for value and exchanging increasingly expensive veterans for youthful talent.

Operating on the presumption that the Rays don’t intend to shop their best assets this winter, preferring instead to build around their core, here are three areas where the team has significant needs this winter:

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Minor MLB Transactions: 9/22/16

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We’ll keep tabs on today’s minor moves right here:

  • The Marlins announced that right-hander Bryan Morris has been outrighted to Triple-A New Orleans. Morris was designated for assignment two days ago after missing the majority of the season due to back surgery. Because of the Major League service time he’s accrued — four-plus year — Morris will be able to elect free agency this winter and hand-pick the best environment and the best offer from interested teams. The 29-year-old (30 next March) has a 2.30 ERA in parts of three seasons with the Fish and a 2.80 career ERA in 215 innings between Pittsburgh and Miami. He’s also sporting one of the league’s best ground-ball rates (58.4 percent) among pitchers with at least 200 innings dating back to the 2013 campaign.
  • The Royals have released righty Chien-Ming Wang, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports on Twitter. Wang had been designated on Saturday, and with the minor league season in the books, that all but assured that the veteran would end up being released. It’s remarkable, really, that the once-excellent starter was able to last as long as he did in the big leagues this year given all the arm troubles and failed comeback attempts already in his past. Now 36, Wang managed to put up a 4.22 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 to go with a 49.3% groundball rate over his 53 1/3 innings in his first major league action since 2013. This was also his first season as a full-time reliever.

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