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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

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The Angels remained in Wild Card contention until the final day of the season but ultimately fell short to the Astros for that spot. With a playoff miss in the books, the 2015 campaign may now be remembered more for the disintegration of the front office than the on-field product. A new regime will look to return the Halos to postseason baseball next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

Contract Options

  • David Murphy, OF: $7MM club option with a $500K buyout — Declined
  • David DeJesus, OF: $5MM club option with a $1MM buyout — Declined

Free Agents

Other Financial Commitments

The series of events that will perhaps have the largest impact on the Angels’ offseason began over the summer, when then-GM Jerry Dipoto abruptly resigned over differences with manager Mike Scioscia and his coaching staff. Reports at the time indicated that Dipoto was frustrated by the field staff’s resistance to implementing information from the club’s analytics department. (Now-former pitching coach Mike Butcher has since been reported to have been heavily resistant as well.) Owner Arte Moreno, it would seem, endorsed his manager over his GM, prompting Dipoto’s exit. Former GM Bill Stoneman assumed the vacated post for the remainder of the year, and Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler was tabbed as the new GM shortly after their season ended.

Dipoto’s exit isn’t the only change, however, as assistant GMs Scott Servais and Matt Klentak have both departed. Servais will serve as manager of the Mariners, where Dipoto was hired as general manager, and Klentak was the hand-picked choice of Phillies president Andy MacPhail to succeed Ruben Amaro Jr. as GM. Special assistant Tim Bogar joined Servais in the Seattle dugout as the club’s bench coach. Suffice it to say, there will be a different brain trust making the calls in Anaheim this offseason.

And that new brain trust hasn’t taken any time to make an impact on the organization. A confession: this post was written and ready to go a few days ago, but it didn’t get onto the site with all of the activity going on at the GM Meetings. No big deal, right? It’s not like the Angels would do something to drastically re-structure the fabric of their organization in the few days between– Oh. Rewrite it is, then!

Eppler’s first move as GM might technically have been to claim Todd Cunningham off waivers last month, but everyone will remember that less than two months into his tenure, the Angels swung a blockbuster deal that sent Erick Aybar, left-hander Sean Newcomb and right-hander Chris Ellis to the Braves in exchange for Andrelton Simmons and minor leaguer Jose Briceno. With this trade, the Angels have dramatically altered the long-term configuration of their infield, proactively acquiring the game’s premier defensive player (sorry, Jason Heyward) in advance of a 2016-17 shortstop market that looks barren and will most likely be headlined by the very guy over whom the Halos would’ve been looking to upgrade (Aybar). Acquiring Simmons technically knocks $2.5MM off the 2016 payroll, but they’re covering that difference by sending the cash to the Braves, anyhow. The takeaway from the trade is that shortstop won’t be an issue for the Angels for the next half-decade.

What it means for the rest of the offseason is harder to figure, because the Halos didn’t really address an immediate need and burned some significant trade pieces in the process. There are still plenty of holes to address, and free agency now looks like the primary way to do it. That could mean that the team will need to be willing to forfeit draft picks to sign significant free agents.

The sting of sacrificing draft selections might have been lessened if the Angels had made a qualifying offer to David Freese on his way out the door. But there was a risk he’d have accepted, and the team ultimately elected to let him hit free agency unencumbered by draft pick compensation. Los Angeles still has interest in re-signing Freese at an annual rate less than the QO, though Freese currently leads a thin crop of free-agent third basemen, so he should have interest elsewhere also.

The Halos currently have about $145MM committed to next year’s payroll between guaranteed contracts, arbitration eligible players (minus non-tender candidate Collin Cowgill) and the $24MM they owe the Rangers for Josh Hamilton’s salary. The luxury tax ledger is calculated a bit differently — it’s based on average annual value of their contracts — but should come in just a few million north of that sum as it stands.

That outlook clears up significantly after 2016, when C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Joe Smith are all free agents, although some of those departures highlight a clear need for the Angels this winter; starting pitching help that is controlled beyond 2016 will be a goal. When he was GM, Dipoto’s long-stated mission was to acquire cost-controlled arms, and he did well to acquire Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Hector Santiago and Nick Tropeano via trades. However, Tropeano hasn’t proven himself in the Majors, and Skaggs is coming off Tommy John surgery from August of 2014. It’s nice to have options, but a team with the Angels’ financial firepower figures to spend on some stability as well, especially having dealt away a potential front-end starter in Newcomb.

Looking at what the Angels have in-house, Garrett Richards looks every bit the part of a budding ace, and Heaney has undoubtedly earned himself a long look in 2016 with a terrific rookie season. There’s little certainty beyond that duo, though, as even the names that comprised the 2015 rotation come with question marks. Matt Shoemaker was a brilliant rookie in 2014 but a wildly inconsistent sophomore whose end-of-year numbers from 2015 look like back-of-the-rotation production, at best. Weaver’s fastball velocity dipped to the low 80s, and he was hit hard and hit often in 2015. Wilson underwent season-ending elbow surgery in August. Santiago was excellent, but he hasn’t shown consistency in the Majors, as evidenced by losing his rotation spot with Anaheim as recently as 2014.

With that in mind, the Angels seem like logical players for free-agent help on the pitching market. Mid-level arms that could be had without significantly escalating the risk of crossing the luxury tax barrier include Wei-Yin Chen, Marco Estrada, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Kennedy, to name a few. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out to me recently, Eppler has  somewhat of a connection to Kennedy, having been in the Yankees front office while Kennedy was drafted and rose through the farm system.

A run at high-profile names — David Price, Zack Greinke, etc. — probably shouldn’t be entirely written off, although another $20MM+ AAV contract would bring the Halos significantly closer to the luxury tax threshold. It’s possible that the club could free up some room by moving Wilson, who apparently caused some frustration among his teammates when he opted to undergo his season-ending procedure. Moving Wilson’s $15.5MM annual salary wouldn’t offset a $30MM-per-year price tag on Price or the similarly lofty AAVs that other top-tier free agents will command, but it makes the blow easier for the Angels to absorb while leaving room to pursue other needs.

Turning to the ’pen, the Angels are in pretty good shape. Huston Street will return as the club’s closer after inking a two-year extension earlier this year. Joe Smith has been excellent in the first two seasons of a three-year deal, and he’ll be joined in the setup crew by righties Trevor Gott and Fernando Salas. Mike Morin figures to earn another chance as well. Though he slumped badly after a strong rookie showing in 2014, Morin’s strand rate (44.4%) was far and away the lowest in baseball of any pitcher with 30+ innings. That number screams “fluke,” and as such isn’t likely to be repeated. Morin’s 10.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 21.2 percent K%-BB% indicate better days ahead. Left-handed options include Cesar Ramos and Jose Alvarez, each of whom had strong seasons. Depth additions seem more likely than major adds, especially considering the fact that righty Cam Bedrosian, who dominated Triple-A but struggled in the Majors, figures to earn another shot at some point in 2016.

Pitching questions aside, the bigger needs for the Angels are on offense, where the club faces holes at catcher, second base, third base, in left field and possibly at DH. Chris Iannetta and David Freese are free agents, while left field was a revolving door in 2015. David Murphy, Matt Joyce, David DeJesus and Shane Victorino all saw time there but are all free agents now. Johnny Giavotella manned second base for much of the 2015 campaign after mainstay Howie Kendrick was traded for Heaney. Giavotella was slightly below the league average with the bat but also played questionable defense and lacks significant upside.

C.J. Cron appears set to open the season at first base in the wake of Albert Pujols’ foot surgery, and he should eventually split time with Pujols at first and DH. While neither is a great defensive option and Cron does have his flaws (namely, a lack of plate discipline), Cron has the power to join Pujols as a source of 30 home runs. While the former first-round pick struggled greatly for the first two months of the season and was demoted to Triple-A, he hit .285/.325/.507 with 15 homers over his final 290 plate appearances upon being recalled. Pujols should be ready to go in early May, but his absence could lead the Halos to seek a bit of power that could begin the season at DH and shift to the bench when Pujols is activated.

A versatile piece such as Daniel Murphy makes some sense for the Angels, who were said in July to be eyeing left-handed bats to fill out their roster. Murphy could serve as an upgrade over Giavotella at second base or see more regular time at the hot corner if Freese isn’t re-signed. Internal options such as Caleb Kowart and Kyle Kubitza have seen their stock tumble, as neither player’s power has developed as hoped. The trade market has options at either position, with names like Yunel Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie, Javier Baez, Starlin Castro and Jedd Gyorko among the offseason’s potential trade candidates. The Angels are said, in particular, to be intrigued by Plouffe, who could be made available if and when Minnesota reaches an agreement with Korean slugger Byung-ho Park. Bedrosian is said to be one name that intrigues the Twins, who have their eyes on hard-throwing relief help.

Catcher is a similar situation, and the open market is rather devoid of talent now that both Matt Wieters and A.J. Pierzynski came off the board early. With Carlos Perez and Jett Bandy currently serving as the only MLB-ready options on the roster, there’s a need for some type of move. Potential trade candidates could include Jonathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki and Wilson Ramos, though Lucroy finished the season with concussion issues while Suzuki and Ramos each struggled greatly. If a longer-term add is the goal, then perhaps the Braves’ Christian Bethancourt or the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez are plausible options. Eppler is, after all, quite familiar with Sanchez from his time in New York.

One area in which the Angels could aim higher is in the outfield. While the team was said to prefer lefty bats this summer, it eventually warmed to right-handed hitters and was linked to Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton. Either of those players could reasonably fit into the club’s long-term plans, with only Mike Trout, Pujols, and now Simmons under control beyond the 2017 season. The AAV of the contract might present some problems, though the previously mentioned theoretical savings from a Wilson trade could be applied here as well. A run at Jason Heyward makes sense, too, especially if he can be had at a lower annual value over a longer term, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently hypothesized in his free-agent profile. If the Simmons trade taught us one thing, it’s that prime-aged, elite defense holds great value to the restructured front office.

The Angels’ mega-signings of Pujols and Hamilton, plus significant second-tier expenditures have clogged their long-term outlook for years, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel after the 2016 campaign. While the team shouldn’t necessarily look to repeat past mistakes and over-commit to aging sluggers, the current market features a number of more youthful options that could fit into the team’s long-term outlook or be locked up on shorter deals (e.g. a three- or four-year pact for a mid-tier starter).

The Angels have the financial means to spend on nearly any free agent, and with the team’s luxury tax fears likely to dissipate next winter, long-term commitments aren’t necessarily as problematic as they once were. Of course, some future cash could also go to extensions with players such as Calhoun and Richards, both of whom look like fairly appealing targets for long-term deals.

We can’t know for sure what to expect out of a rookie general manager — A.J. Preller taught us that much last winter — but Eppler made his presence felt with the Simmons trade, and in doing so, filled an impending but glaring need a year before it needed to be addressed. With a number of holes to fill and increasing spending capacity, I’d expect the Simmons swap to be just the first move of what should be a highly active offseason.

Padres Have Expressed Interest In Ian Desmond

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The Padres have reached out to free agent shortstop Ian Desmond to express interest, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter.

That’s not a surprise, given that San Diego is one of a relatively few teams that have a fairly obvious need for a shortstop. And Desmond is, by consensus, the best player at that position in this year’s market, though he certainly carries a fair amount of risk after a tough 2015 season.

Desmond is freely available after declining a qualifying offer today from the Nationals, though that does mean that a signing team will need to part with a pick to add him. Of course, San Diego’s top pick (8th overall) is protected, and the team also now stands to add two compensatory picks if and when Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy land with new organizations.

Tonight’s trade of Craig Kimbrel makes a Padres connection to Desmond far more plausible, at least on paper. The ace closer would’ve cost the team $11MM this season, and shedding his salary (along with the $7.5MM that would have gone to the recently-dealt Joaquin Benoit) certainly opens the door to bigger free agent spending.

 

Last Chance To Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest

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The Yankees have nowhere to put Jason Heyward.  The Giants will steal Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers.  The Cardinals would never sign a player like Chris Davis.  The Rangers are going to add a big bat.  Do you have strong opinions like these on MLB’s top free agents?  Then enter into the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction contest and prove your genius!

The closes tonight at 11:59pm central time.  The only requirement is a Facebook account.  The winners will receive cash prizes and, more importantly, bragging rights over MLBTR’s writing team and other contest participants.  Your picks can be saved and edited up until the deadline.  Try it today!

Red Sox Acquire Craig Kimbrel

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The Red Sox have acquired star closer Craig Kimbrel from the Padres. It’s a stunning move for new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose club will now have both Kimbrel and ace reliever Koji Uehara to lock down the late innings.

Aug 10, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres relief pitcher <a rel=

There’s a significant haul going back to San Diego. Top outfield prospect Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje, and lefty Logan Allen make up the return. All four players rated among the thirty best Red Sox prospects in MLB.com’s latest ranking, with Margot (#25) and Guerra (#76) also checking in among the top 100 prospects league-wide.

Kimbrel, 27, has long been one of the game’s very best pen arms. Though he is no longer quite as mind-bogglingly dominant as he was back in 2012, he’s still an ace reliever of the highest caliber. Last year, he worked to a 2.58 ERA over 59 1/3 innings, with 13.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. Those were excellent numbers, of course, but didn’t really come close to what he’d done to that point, as he carried a lifetime 1.43 ERA into the season.

To a large extent, the fall-off (if you can really call it that) was driven by a jump in Kimbrel’s home run proneness, as he allowed career highs of 0.91 HR/9 and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. But basically all other relevant markers stayed constant. The batted-ball profile of opposing hitters  appears to be in line with prior seasons. And Kimbrel not only maintained his average fastball velocity, but bumped it to a career-high of 97.3 mph.

Boston will pick up three years of control over Kimbrel. The contract includes a $24MM guarantee over the next two seasons and a $13MM club option in 2018 that carries a $1MM buyout. The Sox will be responsible for the entirety of Kimbrel’s remaining salary in the deal.

It remains to be seen what the move means for the rest of Boston’s offseason, but at first glance, it makes free agency appear the likelier route to add a major starting pitcher. Of course, the Sox still have plenty of prospects to deal, and could still consider dealing young MLB-level players like Jackie Bradley, so there are still plenty of options.

We’ve already seen San Diego GM A.J. Preller swing huge deals on the buyer’s side, and now we know he can part with major assets, too. The Pads had already shipped out another established late-inning arm, Joaquin Benoit, during last week’s GM Meetings. It looks to be another offseason of change for the Padres.

Naturally, the first thought upon hearing about the deal goes to the swap that brought Kimbrel to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day 2015. San Diego was able to get him while parting only with a good-but-not-great pitching prospect in Matt Wisler, young outfielder Jordan Paroubeck, and a competitive balance draft pick. Of course, that deal also included a whole lot of financial shuffling — Melvin Upton to the Pads, Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin to the Braves — that left San Diego with more than $20MM in additional obligations.

That largely explains the differences in the returns, but there’s an argument to be made that Preller did quite well in the overall calculus (while also getting a season of Kimbrel in the 9th inning). After all, the group of players in tonight’s trade could be special.

Margot is arguably the headliner. The 21-year-old now figures to be the Friars’ long-term center fielder and isn’t terribly far away from commanding a shot in the majors. His power is still developing, but Margot has shown the ability to tally in the double digits over a full season (2014) and swiped 39 bags last year. He struck out only 51 times in 480 plate appearances last year, slashing a solid .276/.324/.419 split between High-A and Double-A.

Guerra, too, is a major piece. As Baseball America’s Josh Norris writes, he’s an outstanding defender who showed surprising power last season, which significantly raised his prospect stock. While it’s far from certain that he’ll remain a 15-homer threat, and he’s somewhat strikeout-prone, the 20-year-old nevertheless has immense promise.

The other two pieces in this deal are hardly throw-ins. Asuaje is already 24, and doesn’t have outstanding physical tools or outstanding power or speed, per MLB.com. But he’s shown a very promising bat and certainly seems on course to become a contributor in the majors.

Then, there’s the 18-year-old Allen, who was only able to be dealt because of the rule changes that occurred after last year’s Trea Turner deal. Taken in the eighth round of this summer’s draft and inked to an above-slot bonus, the southpaw is said to have a fair bit of polish for his age to go with an increasingly impressive arsenal.

It remains to be seen, of course, how the Pads move forward after parting with two most established relievers. This was a pure prospect move, as none of the four acquired youngsters figure to be ready in 2016. Notably, though, the two early-offseason trades have opened just under $18.5MM in payroll that otherwise would have been tied up in the pen. That’s a huge amount of additional space to work with for a team that only cracked $100MM in Opening Day payroll last year, and certainly opens up the possibility of more significant free agent involvement.

In large part, one’s assessment of the deal depends upon how one feels about reliever valuation. Kimbrel is obviously capable of delivering huge value from the back of the pen, but he’s only throwing a third or less of the innings of a starter. As Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs recently discussed, there could be some value that WAR is missing in weighing elite pen arms. Kimbrel has been a two-to-three win annual pitcher for most of his career, though he’s separated from the top end of that range by a few years. As you start to slide that number up, he looks more and more like an upper-middle rotation starter in terms of overall value. It’s an open and fascinating question — and one that Dombrowski, at least, already appears to have answered.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the trade of Kimbrel on Twitter. The return was reported by Josh Norris of Baseball America (Twitter links), Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter), and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe tweets. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted the salary details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Three Players Accept Qualifying Offers; 16 Decline

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After three straight seasons in which no player accepted a qualifying offer, and a record twenty offers extended this offseason, perhaps something had to give. For the first time, we saw players land in favor of taking the one-year offer — valued this year at $15.8MM — rather than entering the market with the burden of draft pick compensation attached.

We’ve covered the rules in some detail previously. For those players that accepted a qualifying offer, their once-and-current teams may not trade them without consent until June 15, 2016. (That’s the same rule that applies to any other free agent signing.) And no draft compensation changes hands.

That’s the situation for these three players who accepted qualifying offers:

For the seventeen declining players, their former teams will stand to receive a “sandwich” round draft pick as compensation. New teams that sign those players will have to forfeit their top unprotected draft pick (or picks, if they sign multiple QO-rejecting players). If a player rejects a QO but ultimately re-signs with the same team, no draft pick shuffling occurs.

Here’s that list:

That only accounts for 19 of the 20 offers, of course. The other player to receive a QO was righty Marco Estrada, who agreed to a multi-year pact with the Blue Jays before being forced to accept or reject the offer. Toronto will neither gain nor lose draft choices.

 

 

Brett Anderson Accepts Qualifying Offer From Dodgers

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Lefty Brett Anderson has decided to accept the qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. He becomes the third player to accept a qualifying offer this year, joining Colby Rasmus (Astros) and Matt Wieters (Orioles).

Oct 12, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher <a rel=

Anderson is just 27 years of age and is coming off of a year in which he put up 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. That makes his decision somewhat surprising, at first glance, particularly given his pedigree. And metrics like xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46) felt that Anderson was a bit unlucky, with his 17.0% HR/FB rate probably stands to drop back toward his career levels (11.2%). All told, there was good reason to think he’d draw wide interest as a free agent.

Of course, it’s obviously highly relevant that the talented southpaw failed to reach the 100-inning threshold in any of the four preceding seasons. His results have generally been quite strong, and his 3.72 career ERA is actually a fair bit higher than ERA estimators value his performance, but Anderson has dealt with a wide variety of injuries. He’s battled through Tommy John surgery, a fractured foot, a broken finger, and back issues over his careers.

In short, then, Anderson presented possible suitors with ample risk and plenty of upside. And he faced the same kind of calculus in assessing his decision on the qualifying offer.

It’s worth noting that Anderson was able to earn a $10MM base salary and $2.4MM in incentives in his contract last year, coming off of yet another injury-shortened campaign. It certainly would have been plausible to imagine him signing a nice one-year contract if nothing better was offered, possibly with a club that had already given up an early pick or two to sign other QO-bound free agents.

But there were other considerations at play, too, for Anderson and his reps at the Legacy Agency. In addition to ensuring that he’ll add a hefty, $15.8MM salary to his bank account, the move allows Anderson another opportunity to prove his health and effectiveness. He’ll still be plenty young next year, when the market features nothing close to this season’s mass of top-end talent and overall depth. With a big 2016, then, Anderson could be in prime position to cash in.

Los Angeles will be glad if Anderson does position himself for a big payday, as they would stand to reap the benefits. The team is uniquely situated to take on this kind of salary in a one-year arrangement, and is probably not displeased at the chance to fill a rotation spot with a good arm without binding up future commitments. The team is certainly not done shopping, though, as the rotation still needs to be filled out — including, perhaps, adding another high-level arm alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marco Estrada Signs Two-Year Deal With Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays have announced the signing of righty Marco Estrada, giving him a $26MM guarantee to return to the Toronto rotation for the next two seasons.

Oct 21, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Marco Estrada (25) waves to the crowd after leaving the game during the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals in game five of the ALCS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Last year was unquestionably a career-year for Estrada, who opened things up in the bullpen but quickly established himself as a key cog for the AL East champs. He ended the season with a stellar 3.13 ERA in his 181 frames.

That figure is both surprising and potentially misleading, as Estrada is no longer able to strike out a batter per inning (as he once did) and doesn’t induce many ground balls. Indeed, advanced metrics saw his results as incredibly lucky. An unsustainable .216 batting average on balls in play and career-low 8.7% HR/FB rate surely played a role.

On the other hand, Estrada has traditionally carried extremely low BABIP-against figures (.261 career), and his contact management ability arguably supports it going forward. Hardly a power pitcher, Estrada gets a ton of pop-ups and possesses an outstanding change-up that (one might think) could hold up well with age. And, most importantly, Toronto doesn’t need a repeat of that stellar run prevention to get what it needs out of this contract.

Estrada had been weighing a qualifying offer by the Jays, meaning he had the option of simply taking a $15.8MM salary for a one-year term. That was surely tempting, as Estrada has earned only about $10MM previously in his career. But the 32-year-old also had a chance at securing a multi-year commitment in free agency, which, given his age, may not ever again come around.

In the end, the sides appear to have chosen a mutually agreeable middle ground. Estrada gets multiple years, foregoing a chance at a third guaranteed season but maintaining a strong $13MM AAV. And the Blue Jays, who were in need of multiple starters, will fill one rotation spot with a manageable commitment.

It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that Estrada’s representatives at TWC Sports have had a chance to gauge the 32-year-old’s market all week long. Last year, Michael Cuddyer only turned down his QO when he knew a deal was in hand with the Mets. In this case, Estrada and his agents likely have a good sense of where things stand, though there’s always some uncertainty until a formal agreement is made.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that the deal was close (via Twitter) and reported its value (Twitter link). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported on Twitter that the deal was done, as did Shi Davidi and Mike Wilner of Sportsnet.ca, who confirmed its length and value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Podcast With Peter King Of CBS Radio News

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Respected journalist Peter King of CBS Radio News has reported on some of the world’s most important news stories. He’s also a hot stove junkie who once followed transactions by way of newspaper and now regularly visits MLBTR.

King joins host Jeff Todd to discuss the roots and growth of his particular blend of fandom, chat about the recent rise of the Mets — the club he’s rooted for all his life and covered in this year’s World Series — and tell us more about his interesting career in broadcast journalism. Listen in here:

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

Ian Kennedy To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy will reject the team’s qualifying offer and seek a multi-year deal on the free-agent market, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported yesterday that Kennedy was planning to reject the offer, and he did just that rather than following the path of fellow Scott Boras client Matt Wieters in accepting he one-year pact.

Many have speculated that Kennedy would accept the offer due to a poor start to the season and a problem with home runs in 2015, but the longstanding belief at MLBTR has been that Kennedy’s durability and penchant for strikeouts would lead to a multi-year deal on the open market. The right-hander ranks fourth in the NL in innings pitched dating back to 2011 and he’s averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time to go along with a 3.89 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.78 xFIP.

The 30-year-old Kennedy did have some struggles in 2015, namely an abnormal susceptibility to home runs. Kennedy logged a dreadful 7.15 ERA through the first two months of the season, but he rebounded with a 3.41 ERA and 137-to-38 K/BB ratio over his final 129 1/3 innings (22 starts).

Over the course of his career, 10.7 percent of fly-balls off Kennedy have turned into home runs, but that number soared to an uncharacteristic — and probably fluky — 17.2 percent in 2015. A return to his normal rate in that regard should lead to dramatically improved bottom-line results from Kennedy, who recorded the best K%-BB% mark of his career this past season.

It’s hard to peg a specific market for the veteran at this point, as none of the starting pitching pieces have fallen into place. Generally, though, he lands comfortably in the mid-tier of free agent rotation options. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated him the 19th-best player available, sandwiched between Scott Kazmir and Yovani Gallardo, and predicted that Kennedy will land a deal in the range of four-years and $52MM deal in spite of the QO.

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