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Tigers Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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With their first prominent offseason move now in the books, the Tigers may be looking to follow up the Alex Cobb signing with some offensive help.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X) that Detroit has interest in seven-time All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who is a free agent for the first time in his 14-year career.

Acquiring Goldschmidt isn’t the type of blockbuster move it would’ve been just a few years ago, as the veteran is coming off the first true middling season of his long career.  Goldschmidt had a perfectly average 100 wRC+ over 154 games and 654 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2024, while batting .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs.  All three points of that slash line were career lows for Goldschmidt, and his strikeout, walk and chase rates were all well below the league average.

Since Goldschmidt turned 37 in September, it could be that he is simply hitting a decline phase after holding off Father Time for so long.  That said, there is reason to believe the first baseman might still have something left in the tank for a 15th MLB season (or beyond).  Most of Goldschmidt’s struggles were contained to the first half of the season, as he hit a more respectable .271/.319/.480 in 250 PA after the All-Star break.  He has continued to blister the ball when he does make contact, as Goldschmidt had strong barrel rates and a hard-hit ball rate that ranked in the 92nd percentile of all batters.

Between the hard-contact numbers and Goldschmidt’s excellent track record, there is certainly reason for teams to think he might have a bounce-back season in a new environment.  His age means that a one-year contract is likely, which fits the Tigers’ preference for shorter-term contracts.  Recent reports have indicated that Detroit is known to be looking for one- or two-year deals for starting pitchers, and the team is also wary of making a play for any free agent attached to a qualifying offer.  This would seemingly hamper the Tigers’ chances of signing another target in Christian Walker, so Goldschmidt could be viewed as alternative.

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has been vocal about his desire to add some veteran leadership to a young and talented club that reached the playoffs this season.  Goldschmidt would certainly fill that role in the clubhouse, and his right-handed bat fits well in a very left-handed Detroit lineup.

The Tigers can use all the offense they can get considering the team’s lackluster hitting numbers in 2024, though installing Goldschmidt at first base begs the question of what will be done with Spencer Torkelson.  The DH spot would allow Torkelson or Goldschmidt some at-bats when Kerry Carpenter is used in right field, though naturally Torkelson would be something of an odd man out in this situation.

It doesn’t appear as though Detroit is giving up on Torkelson’s potential, even though he has yet to show much consistency over parts of three MLB seasons.  In an interview on MLB Network (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press), Harris described Torkelson as “immensely talented. Just like these young guys, we got to stick with him.  We got to keep finding ways to get a little bit more out of him.”

Phillies Sign Jordan Romano

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The Phillies finalized a one-year contract with reliever Jordan Romano, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed at the Winter Meetings. The longtime Blue Jays righty is reportedly guaranteed $8.5MM and would receive another $500K if he pitches 60 innings next season. Romano is represented by VC Sports Group.

The Phils are making a bet on a bounceback. Romano, 32 in February, just finished a frustrating and injury-marred season with the Blue Jays but was their closer for three years prior to that. The righty saved 95 games for the Jays from 2021 to 2023, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip and getting grounders on 42.3% of balls in play.

But 2024 was mostly a lost season for him. He started the season on the injured list due to some right elbow inflammation and never seemed to be fully healthy. He went on and off the IL throughout the year, making just 15 appearances with a 6.59 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate in that small sample was not only below his previous work but also below league average.

He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the elbow in July and was given an estimated six-week shutdown time frame. The Jays were hoping to get Romano back on the mound before the season was up but that didn’t come to pass. His last major league appearance was May 29.

The Jays could have retained Romano for one more season via arbitration. Salaries almost never go down via the arb system, so MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for the same $7.75MM salary he made in 2024. The Jays apparently weren’t willing to fork over that kind of cash for the chance to find out if Romano could get over his lost season, as he was not tendered a contract for 2025. Last week, general manager Ross Atkins said that he expected Romano to be healthy and hoped to re-sign him, but presumably at a lower price point. Instead, Romano will get a fresh start with a new organization and get a slight pay bump.

The Philadelphia bullpen has been shuffled quite a bit in recent months. They traded away Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline, then lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez to free agency at season’s end. They still have some good arms back there, including Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, but they’ve naturally been looking for bullpen upgrades this winter.

Opting for Romano also makes sense for financial reasons. The Phils have spent a lot of money on their roster in recent years, both via free agency and extensions of incumbent players. That has led to them paying the competitive balance tax three years in a row now. Going into 2025, they were projected to have a high payroll and CBT number yet again, before even making any offseason moves.

That has seemingly led to a shift in approach this winter. While they have been connected to many of the top available free agents in recent offseasons, they seemingly didn’t get involved in the Juan Soto frenzy and there have been many rumors about them trying to trade players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and others.

They reportedly had some interest in re-signing Hoffman and Estévez but both will likely be signing deals far larger than this pact for Romano. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hoffman for a four-year, $44MM deal. That was before the clubs reportedly expressed interest in him as a starter, which could potentially increase his earning power. Estévez was projected for a more modest $27MM guarantee over three years, but still a notable commitment.

By going for Romano, the Phils are hoping that they are making a big upgrade to their bullpen but at a relatively low cost since they are buying low. There is some risk there, as relievers are generally volatile in general and Romano is coming off an injury-marred season, but it’s a logical gamble to take. If things go especially well, it’s possible the Phils could extend a qualifying offer to Romano at the end of next year. Qualifying offers for relievers are rare, but guys like Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Will Smith have received them in recent years.

Now factoring in Romano, RosterResource projects the Phillies for a $271MM payroll. That would be a franchise record by a significant margin, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts having them in the $242-244MM range in recent years but never higher than that. RR projects the CBT number at $289MM for next year. That’s not only beyond the $241MM base threshold but also the second and third tiers of $261MM and $281MM, respectively. As a third-time CBT payor, the Phils will be looking at a 50% base tax next year as well as surcharges of 12%, 45% and 60% for spending beyond the higher tiers. That means they are already slated for a 95% tax rate on any additional spending right now and a 110% rate if they go beyond $301MM, though successfully trading away a notable contract could drop them lower. If they remain above the third line of $281MM, they would also see their top pick in the 2026 draft dropped back ten spots. All of these could be significant factors as the club looks to make further upgrades in the rest of the offseason.

For the Jays, remaking the bullpen will also be a big storyline in the coming weeks and months. Their relief group had a collective ERA of 4.82 in 2024, ahead of just the Rockies and a key factor in their disappointing season. Getting better results out of the bullpen will be necessary for a turnaround but they will have to do so with a new closer. Chad Green racked up 17 saves in 2024 while Romano was mostly out of action and could be the favorite for the job among guys currently on the roster, but they could perhaps find an external addition and bump green into a setup role.

Jim Salisbury first reported the Phillies had interest in Romano. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the sides had reached an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first correctly reported the terms.

Giants Intend To Keep Jordan Hicks In Rotation

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The Giants continue to view Jordan Hicks as a starting pitcher, baseball operations president Buster Posey said this afternoon (X link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The 28-year-old righty finished this past season in the bullpen.

San Francisco signed Hicks to a four-year, $44MM free agent contract last winter. They gave the hard-throwing sinkerballer a starting job. That was Hicks’ first extended rotation work. He had started eight games for the Cardinals in 2022 but moved back to the bullpen relatively early in that year. He was a full-time reliever in ’23 before getting the rotation spot with the Giants.

Hicks showed early promise as a starter. He posted a 2.70 earned run average over 12 starts through the end of May. It looked as if Hicks would be a reliever-to-rotation success story in the Seth Lugo or Michael King mold, but things went off the rails midway through the year. Hicks’ velocity trended down each month. While he averaged 95.6 MPH on his sinker in April, that was down to 93.4 MPH by July. The results sharply dropped with it, as he posted a 5.24 ERA in June and allowed nearly a run per inning in July.

San Francisco kicked Hicks to the bullpen by the end of that month. He pitched well in the more familiar one-inning role but battled shoulder inflammation late in the year. Hicks finished the season with a 4.10 ERA in a career-high 109 2/3 innings. The rate production was around average when all was said and done, but it was an up-and-down year.

Given the way Hicks wore down physically, it was fair to wonder if the Giants would move him back to relief for good. Posey also wasn’t responsible for signing him as a starter, a move that came under previous front office leader Farhan Zaidi. Nevertheless, it seems they’ll give Hicks another shot at a rotation spot.

Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison are locked into rotation roles going into camp. If Hicks takes the fourth spot, that’d leave one job up for grabs. That’ll probably be an external acquisition of some kind. The Giants have been linked to Corbin Burnes, though that reported interest predated their $182MM agreement with Willy Adames. It’s not clear if they’re still willing to play at the top of the rotation market. There are a number of more affordable possibilities in the middle tiers of free agency. Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong and Landen Roupp are the top internal candidates for the fifth starter role. They each have options and could open next season in Triple-A if San Francisco makes an addition.

In other pitching news, Posey downplayed the possibility of trading former closer Camilo Doval (relayed on X by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). The Giants have gotten interest in the one-time All-Star, who struggled to a 4.88 ERA as his command deteriorated this year. Trading Doval this winter would be selling low, though, and the Giants are already a bit thin at the back of the bullpen. Ryan Walker had a breakout season to take the ninth inning, while Taylor Rogers and Tyler Rogers are in potential leverage roles. Doval, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to make $4.6MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility, represents a volatile middle innings option.

Mets Sign Clay Holmes

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The Mets officially announced the signing of Clay Holmes to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the second season. It’s a reported $38MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Holmes will collect $13MM salaries in each of the next two years before deciding whether to opt out of the final year and $12MM. The deal comes with an approximate $12.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The Mets intend to use Holmes as a starting pitcher.

Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, heads across town after three and a half seasons in the Bronx. He was an inconsistent pitcher for the Pirates between 2018-21. The Yankees, intrigued by his gaudy ground-ball rates, acquired him at the ’21 trade deadline. That move wasn’t met with a ton of fanfare, but Holmes broke out immediately after donning pinstripes.

Owner of a 4.93 earned run average at the time of the trade, Holmes fired 28 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to kick off his Yankees career. He took over as Aaron Boone’s closer by the following season. Holmes saved 20 games with a 2.54 ERA across 63 2/3 innings to earn his first All-Star nod in 2022. He followed up with 63 frames of 2.86 ERA ball while picking up 24 saves.

Holmes got out to another strong start this year. He didn’t allow an earned run over 13 1/3 innings through the end of April. He had a productive May as well, though he started to struggle with his command. That was a sign of a somewhat rocky summer. Holmes posted a 3.64 ERA in 30 appearances between the start of June and the end of August. While his rate production wasn’t terrible, he relinquished a lot of leads. By the start of September, the Yankees had replaced him in the ninth inning with Luke Weaver. Holmes finished the season in a setup role.

The 6’5″ righty concluded the regular season with a 3.14 ERA across 67 innings. He struck out around a quarter of batters faced against a league average 8.1% walk rate. Holmes got grounders at a characteristically excellent 65% clip. It’s far from a bad season, but he was bizarrely prone to blowing leads. While he recorded a career-high 30 saves, he was charged with an MLB-worst 13 blown saves. No other reliever gave up more than eight leads. He went into the postseason trending in the wrong direction after losing the closing job.

To his credit, Holmes rebounded when the lights were brightest. He only gave up three runs in 12 postseason innings. While he’d fallen behind Weaver in the bullpen hierarchy, he remained one of Boone’s most trusted setup options. Holmes picked up five holds without giving up the lead once in October.

That finish was a more fitting ending to his strong run in the Bronx. While the fanbase was divided at times on his reliability, Holmes posted good to elite numbers throughout his Yankee tenure. Of the 86 relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three years, Holmes ranks 17th in ERA. While his 25.7% strikeout percentage is middle of the pack, his 68.6% ground-ball rate is #1 among that group.

There’s no doubt that Holmes can be a productive reliever. The Mets believe he can be more than that. They’ll give him a chance at a full-time rotation role for the first time in his MLB career. Holmes has started four major league games, all of which came during his 2018 rookie season in Pittsburgh. Those didn’t go well — he allowed a 7.80 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in 15 innings — but that’s of little consequence. The Mets aren’t placing any stock in a minuscule sample that predated his breakout by three years.

Like many MLB relievers, Holmes was a starting pitcher in the minors. He’s not completely unfamiliar with working multiple innings, but it’ll be a tough test against big league hitters. He’ll probably need to make an adjustment to his pitch mix. Holmes has essentially abandoned his changeup since moving to the bullpen. His 96-97 MPH sinker is his go-to offering, the pitch most responsible for his huge grounder rates. Holmes has deployed two distinct breaking balls — an 87 MPH slider and an 83-84 MPH offering that Statcast classifies as a sweeper.

Having three pitches is an advantage as Holmes tries to navigate a lineup two or three times in an appearance. However, he hasn’t used a changeup or splitter that most starters have to handle opposite-handed hitters. Holmes has fared well against hitters of either handedness, but his strikeout and walk profile is far better when he holds the platoon advantage.

As a Yankee, Holmes held right-handed batters to a pitiful .203/.267/.284 batting line. He struck them out at a huge 31.7% clip against a tidy 6.2% walk rate. He fanned only 19.8% of left-handed opponents while issuing walks at a 9.8% rate. Holmes still held lefties to a mediocre .235/.318/.307 slash, but that’ll present more of a challenge as he works through a lineup multiple times.

There’s significant upside if Holmes can make that transition. Reliever to rotation success stories have gotten increasingly common. Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and Holmes’ former teammate Michael King have become top-of-the-rotation starters after spending most of their careers in relief. Jeffrey Springs, José Soriano and Zack Littell look like mid-rotation arms. It hasn’t been uniformly positive, though. Jordan Hicks wore down quickly when the Giants tried him as a starter last season. The Marlins experimented with A.J. Puk in the rotation. They pulled the plug by the end of April after he had four terrible starts.

Puk moved back to the bullpen with relative ease after the rotation experiment flopped. That’s a possibility for Holmes as well. The Mets surely believe he could return to a setup role in front of Edwin Díaz if he doesn’t take to the rotation. They’d be paying a high but not outlandish price for a leverage reliever in that case. Robert Stephenson, Rafael Montero and Taylor Rogers have signed three-year deals in the $33-35MM range in recent years. The Braves guaranteed López $30MM to give him a shot as a starter. Hicks, who is younger than the rest of that group, signed a four-year deal worth $44MM.

MLBTR predicted Holmes would land a three-year, $30MM contract that valued him as a setup arm. The Mets are going a little beyond that based on the perceived upside as a starter. The opt-out gives Holmes a chance to retest the market after two seasons. If he proves he’s capable of starting, he could do quite well in that return trip. There’s precedent for starters getting lucrative three-year deals at age 34. Lugo signed for $45MM, while Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt each inked $63MM contracts.

Holmes is the second rotation addition for the Mets in recent days. They finalized a two-year, $34MM deal with Frankie Montas on Wednesday. They’ve taken upside fliers in the middle of the market thus far — a strategy they employed to great success last offseason with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. There should be more rotation moves on the way. New York already lost Severino and could see Manaea and Jose Quintana depart as free agents.

Kodai Senga and David Peterson likely have rotation spots secured, but there’s little certainty with a fifth spot that’d go to one of Tylor Megill or Paul Blackburn at the moment. Senga barely pitched this year, while Holmes could be on an innings limit. The Mets are still potential suitors for a top-of-the-market arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, though president of baseball operations David Stearns has yet to make that kind of move. At the very least, they’ll continue to identify upside targets in the middle of free agency.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets and Holmes were in agreement on a three-year deal worth $38MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the opt-out clause and confirmed the Mets would use Holmes as a starter, which Sherman first suggested earlier this week. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Jonathan India, Michael Massey Willing To Play Left Field For Royals

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Jonathan India spent the vast majority of his tenure with the Reds playing second base. Michael Massey has also been a primary second baseman throughout his first three seasons with the Royals. Now that India and Massey both play for Kansas City, Royals manager Matt Quatraro will have to be creative to get them both in the lineup. That could involve some platooning (Massey bats left-handed and India bats righty) and each spending some time at DH, but Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic suggest a third possibility: the outfield. According to Rosenthal and Sammon, India and Massey are both willing to try their hands at left field next season.

India has never played a defensive position other than second base in his career. He prepared for a multi-positional role with the Reds in 2024 when it looked like the team would have a logjam in the infield, but Cincinnati’s infield depth quickly diminished, and India ended up playing more second base than he had in any season since his rookie campaign. Massey has a couple of additional positions on his defensive resume, but that’s little more than a technicality. He played one game at third base in his rookie season and one inning in center field earlier this year.

Although second base is the position they both know best, neither has ever graded out as a particularly valuable defender at the keystone. However, both were above-average hitters in 2024. India showed off excellent plate discipline (12.6% walk rate, 108 wRC+), while Massey made tons of contact and hit for above-average power (.190 ISO, 102 wRC+). So, one can see why the Royals would like to get their bats in the lineup, even if it’s not at their natural position. Rotating between India and Massey in the DH spot is one way to accomplish that, but it’s not the ideal solution. For one thing, the Royals presumably want to keep the DH spot open for Salvador Perez on days when Freddy Fermin is catching. Furthermore, general manager J.J. Picollo would surely like to maintain as much flexibility as possible as he continues to look for upgrades to the lineup. Having some DH reps to work with could help him land a more impactful bat.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported earlier today that the Royals are looking for another hitter who can play the infield and the outfield. Yet, if India or Massey (or both) could be that guy, perhaps Picollo can focus on landing the best possible bat rather than prioritizing defensive flexibility. This team could certainly use the offensive boost. While the Royals pitching staff led the team to the playoffs in 2024, their hitters ranked 13th in runs scored, 14th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+. Their only notable addition to the lineup so far has been India.

When it comes to further additions, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest the Royals would prefer a left-handed bat. They mention Josh Rojas and Adam Frazier as two possibilities on the free agent market. However, neither Rojas nor Frazier has been an above-average hitter over the last two years. Perhaps, then, the Royals are more likely to turn to the trade block for an upgrade. Previous reports have suggested they’re looking for a middle-of-the-order bat on the trade market, although it’s not clear to whom that might refer. Once again, the more flexibility this team can get from guys like India and Massey, the more potential targets they can pursue in a trade.

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No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

Cubs, Carson Kelly Nearing A Deal

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The Cubs are reportedly progressing toward a contract with free agent catcher Carson Kelly, according to both Robert Murray of FanSided and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers confirmed their reports, describing an agreement between the two sides as “close.” The Cubs have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary before they finalize the deal.

Kelly, 30, is coming off a bounceback season with the Tigers and Rangers. Once a promising young catcher for the Diamondbacks, he fell out of favor in the organization with his poor performance at the plate in 2022 and ’23. They released him in August 2023 with close to $1MM remaining on his contract. The Tigers quickly scooped him up, and after the season, they picked up his $3.5MM option for 2024.

That proved to be the right decision. Kelly turned in a strong season at the plate and in the field, allowing the Tigers to flip him to the Rangers ahead of the trade deadline. While he didn’t play quite as well in Texas as he had in Detroit, he finished the season with a perfectly respectable batting line (.238/.313/.374, 99 wRC+) and strong defensive metrics. All told, he produced 1.8 FanGraphs WAR in just 91 games and 313 trips to the plate. For the sake of comparison, Cubs catchers combined for -0.1 fWAR this past season.

Chicago has struggled behind the dish since letting Willson Contreras walk after the 2022 campaign. In 2024, Cubs catchers ranked third-last in the NL in Fielding Run Value (per Baseball Savant) and second-last in OPS and wRC+. According to FanGraphs WAR, no NL club received less production from the catcher position. Needless to say, the front office is aware of these shortcomings. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer failed in his efforts to add a backstop at the trade deadline, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported after the deadline that Hoyer would continue to pursue catching during the offseason.

Ideally, that would mean a starting-caliber catcher to usurp the incumbent Miguel Amaya. Sharma noted back in August that the Cubs see Amaya as a backup in the long run. Funnily enough, Amaya happened to hit quite well from the day that report came out to the end of the season (.770 OPS, 114 wRC+ in 34 games), but his career numbers speak much louder than that small sample size performance. He has a .657 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 170 career games. His defense has been passable, but not enough to make up for a well-below-average bat. All that to say, the Cubs needed an upgrade.

However, the market for free agent catchers moved quickly this offseason, to the point where Chicago’s options started to look slim. Kelly is one of the few catchers still available who should be an upgrade over Amaya. Indeed, Kelly might be the only everyday catcher left on the market, depending on how you feel about Yasmani Grandal and Elias Díaz (and how much you’re willing to stretch the definition of an “everyday” catcher). Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen, and Gary Sánchez are already off the board.

Matt Thaiss, who the Cubs acquired from the Angels earlier this offseason, is nothing more than another potential backup. With Kelly taking the majority of the reps behind the dish, Thaiss and Amaya will presumably compete for a bench role in 2025. Both are out of minor league options, so one will likely be traded or DFA’d at some point before Opening Day. Amaya has been the more productive player over the last two seasons, providing a similar level of offense and significantly better defense. However, Thaiss could have a leg up as a left-handed batter; Kelly bats right-handed, so the Cubs might like a lefty-batting backup. What’s more, the Cubs might prefer to DFA Amaya, who doesn’t have the necessary MLB service time to reject an outright assignment should he pass through waivers.

Cody Bellinger Generating Trade Interest, Seiya Suzuki Trade Less Likely

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Cody Bellinger is quickly becoming one of the most talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. Earlier this month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Cubs were “determined” to trade one of Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic added further detail to that story today, noting that the team would prefer to part with Bellinger. Dealing Suzuki doesn’t seem like anything more than a backup plan in case no Bellinger trade comes together. 

Sharma goes on to mention that there “seems to be real interest” in Bellinger on the trade market, thus pouring cold water on the possibility of a Suzuki deal (at least for now). Indeed, Bellinger has already been linked to the Diamondbacks, Mariners, Yankees, and Astros this winter, and Sharma suggests that the market for Bellinger could heat up now that Juan Soto has signed with the Mets. It seems the Cubs have been shopping Bellinger as a second choice for teams that missed out on the lefty-batting superstar. Bellinger is no Soto, but he can provide above-average offense from the same side of the plate and a much better glove in the outfield. He may not be a perennial MVP contender, but he does have superstar upside, even if his 2019 MVP season is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror.

As for Suzuki, it’s not hard to understand why the Cubs would prefer to hold onto the righty bat. He is set to make $19MM in each of the next two seasons, while Bellinger will make $27.5MM in 2025 and has a player option for $25MM in 2026. Trading Bellinger would free up more payroll space for the coming season and would free the Cubs of his player option; as the name suggests, player options are inherently player-friendly. Furthermore, Suzuki is coming off a stronger season than Bellinger. While Bellinger is a better defender and baserunner, Suzuki is a more reliable middle-of-the-order bat. Bellinger’s offense has been much less stable in recent years. Thus, Suzuki looks like a bargain at $19MM per year, while Bellinger presumably would have opted out of his contract this winter if he thought he could do better on the open market.

For all of those same reasons, Suzuki’s trade market would probably be more robust than Bellinger’s. However, it doesn’t seem as if the Cubs are necessarily trying to maximize their return. Rather, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might simply need to create more payroll flexibility to address areas of greater need on the roster. After all, the Cubs have no shortage of outfield and/or designated hitter types in the organization. That includes center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, left-fielder Ian Happ, and top prospects Kevin Alcántara, Matt Shaw, and Owen Caissie.

What the Cubs could use more of is pitching. After signing Matthew Boyd, they reportedly remain interested in adding another starter (per Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). Over the past few days, the club has been linked to free agent Walker Buehler and trade candidates Jordan Montgomery and Garrett Crochet. As much as they could use another arm, however, the Cubs might not be willing to pay for another starter without first removing some money from the books. On a related note, Sharma says Chicago has also shown “some interest” in Jack Flaherty but only if his price tag is low enough.

In theory, the Cubs should be able to sign a top-end starting pitcher like Flaherty without trading Bellinger or Suzuki. Their estimated 2025 payroll currently sits around $185MM, according to RosterResource. That’s $43MM lower than last season’s final estimate. They’re also about $40MM under the first luxury tax threshold, which should give them plenty of wiggle room even if they’d like to get back under the tax in 2025. However, Chicago’s eagerness to shop Bellinger and reluctance to court Flaherty certainly suggest that Hoyer is working under payroll constraints as he looks to get the Cubs back to the playoffs for the first time in his tenure as president of baseball operations.

Red Sox Interested In Anthony Santander

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The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox have strong interest in free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). The Jays and Yankees have been connected to Santander in previous rumors.

The fit is logical as all three clubs just came up short in their pursuit of Juan Soto. This winter’s free agent outfield market featured Soto at the top, clearly on a tier by himself, well above the rest. The level below featured a cluster of guys including Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto and others. O’Neill and Conforto are also off the board now, in addition to Soto, so it’s natural that these clubs would pivot to the guys still available.

Santander, 30, doesn’t have Soto’s youth or plate discipline but there’s no doubting the power. He has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past three seasons, including 44 in the most recent campaign, leading to 105 overall for the 2022-24 seasons. His 8.5% walk rate in that time was right around league average, with his 20.5% strikeout rate slightly better than par. His .244/.317/.478 batting line for that stretch led to a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average.

Given that healthy production, it’s unsurprising that he is generating plenty of interest. What also works in his favor is that he is a switch-hitter without strong platoon splits. As a righty against lefties, he hit .239/.309/.513 in 2024 for a 132 wRC+. For the inverse split, he hit .225/.306/.488 for a 123 wRC+. For his career, he has a 111 wRC+ against lefties and 116 against righties.

That balanced attack means he should be able to fit into the plans of any club with an outfield need, or perhaps an opening at designated hitter. His outfield defense has been subpar in his career, with grades of -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. He has gotten brief looks at first base recently, with 72 innings at that spot in 2023 and one more in 2024.

Despite the defensive concerns, Santander’s power bat is one of the best available. Perhaps some club would be willing to live with the subpar defense, or maybe try to slot Santander in at first base or designated hitter down the road. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Santander could earn a guarantee of $80MM over four years.

For the Sox, they would likely be looking at Santander as an outfielder. Their corner infield and designated hitter mix is already crowded, with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a primary option for designated hitter. There have been some rumors that the Sox would like to sign a third baseman and move Devers over to the other side of the diamond, which would likely require Casas or Yoshida to be moved.

In the outfield, the Sox have some good options but they could fit Santander into the mix. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu project to be in two spots, but both are left-handed hitters with notable platoon splits. The lineup is already fairly left-leaning as Devers, Casas and Yoshida all hit from that side as well. The right-handed Rob Refsnyder can help out a bit but having Santander as an everyday option would help stabilize the whole group.

Ceddanne Rafaela could be involved in the outfield group as well but he’s a glove-first option who can also play the infield. Roman Anthony is one of the top prospects in the sport but he has not yet turned 21 years old and only has 35 games of Triple-A experience thus far. He is also a left-handed hitter, so he’ll exacerbate the club’s slant in that direction even if he earns his way into the big league plans.

The Sox have been looking to be aggressive this winter with the rotation being a primary focus but adding Santander or another big bat to the lineup would obviously help as well. They are reportedly even willing to pay the luxury tax under the right circumstances. RosterResource currently projects the club’s tax number at $181MM, which is $60MM below next year’s base threshold of $241MM. That should give them enough wiggle room to sign Santander or another outfielder as well as a notable starting pitcher, if they so choose. The Sox have been connected to various rotation options, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

The Jays and Yankees have been connected to just about every big-name free agent, though both clubs have been focused on Soto until now. The coming days should see them pivot and gauge the market on guys like Fried, Burnes, Santander, Hernández, Alex Bregman and others, as those guys have each been connected to both the Yankees and Jays in rumors this offseason.

The loss of Soto obviously leaves a huge hole in the Yankee outfield, so they will surely be considering various options to bolster the group alongside Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Jasson Domínguez. That could include the aforementioned free agents but the Yanks have reportedly contacted the Cubs about a Cody Bellinger trade.

The Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as their two most established outfielders, though Varsho is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. They have Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and other guys on the roster but those guys are all fairly limited in terms of their major league experience.

Santander rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at season’s end, so that club will receive draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere. That feels fairly inevitable now that they have an agreement with O’Neill, effectively replacing Santander in the club’s outfield mix. If Santander signs a contract worth more than $50MM, the O’s will get a pick after the first round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to penalties, depending on whether they are revenue sharing recipients or paid the competitive balance tax in 2024.

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