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Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

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One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ Pitching Search

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Reports over the weekend suggested that the Orioles weren’t keen on giving up a compensatory draft pick in order to sign a pitcher who rejected a qualifying offer, which would seemingly rule out Max Fried, Sean Manaea, and Nick Pivetta from the team’s list of possible targets.  Speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters today at the Winter Meetings, Orioles GM Mike Elias denied that the qualifying offer was an obstacle in club’s quest to add pitching.

“We’re in on everybody….When there’s aspects of the rules that create wrinkles, you’ve got to weigh them, so we do that,” Elias said.  “But there is no player that we’re not interested in or pursuing in some shape or fashion if we feel like the talent is additive to the current roster that we have.”

Signing a qualified free agent would require the Orioles to give up their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft as compensation.  Since the O’s would stand to gain two compensatory picks after the first round of the draft if Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander (Baltimore’s own qualified free agents) signed with another team for more than $50MM, the Orioles’ third-highest pick would therefore fall within the 30-40 range of the 2025 draft order.

Losing such a high selection is no small matter, considering how highly teams prize draft picks.  Fans might grumble that the Orioles’ prospect depth should mean that they should be more open to moving draft capital if it means landing more proven big leaguers, yet it should be noted that Baltimore already gave up a pick to land proven talent last offseason — the Orioles included their Competitive Balance Round-A selection (34th overall) as part of the trade package that brought Burnes to Baltimore from Milwaukee.

Elias’ comments today lined up with his comments from November about the Orioles were exploring “the whole spectrum” of pitching targets.  This means both ace-level pitchers and mid-rotation help, and Elias didn’t rule out the possibility that Baltimore could add two pitchers to its pre-existing rotation base of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott.

In terms of gaining an ace, Burnes could depart in free agency, leaving a particularly big hole atop the rotation.  Elias acknowledged the difficulty in acquiring such pitchers, whether via free agency or (as the O’s did in landing Burnes) in trades.

While Baltimore’s deep farm system ostensibly gives the club a leg up in trade talks, “there aren’t too many teams making their major league players available for prospects right now,” Elias said.  “Those that are, we’re deeply engaged with those teams.  Those that aren’t in that mode, we’re exploring more major league-for-major league kind of trades, which obviously take unique fits on the rosters.”

Beyond just the rotation, the O’s are looking to bolster the relief corps as well.  The Orioles’ decision to non-tender Jacob Webb and decline Danny Coulombe’s $4MM club option seemingly ran counter to this desire for bullpen depth, but Elias said the team was open to bringing either pitcher back.

“You’re not able to keep every player that you like at all times at any cost, and so we have to do a balancing act when we’re curating our roster,” Elias said.  “Sometimes that involves making tough decisions much earlier in the offseason than you’d like to when you don’t have a full picture of what’s going to happen and you don’t have a crystal ball and you have to make some decisions early in the offseason.  But it doesn’t close the door.”

Rangers Still Pursuing Reunion With Nathan Eovaldi

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The Rangers continue to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Nathan Eovaldi, GM Chris Young confirmed today at the Winter Meetings. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that Texas has a meeting scheduled with the right-hander’s representatives on Monday evening.

Eovaldi is one of the better unsigned pitchers in a quick-moving rotation market. Unlike Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, he’ll be limited to a relatively short-term deal. Eovaldi turns 35 in February. That’s an age at which very few free agent pitchers get three years. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we see that there are only three free agent starters 35 or older who signed for at least three years within the past decade: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Rich Hill.

MLBTR thus predicted two years at a hefty $22MM average annual value for Eovaldi. The rotation market has been quite strong early on, however, so it’s not out of the question that he gets to three years on a deal that pushes past $60MM total. Even if he’s limited to two years, it’ll very likely cost north of $20MM annually.

It’s not clear whether the Rangers would find that price palatable. They’ve scaled back spending in consecutive winters as they navigate an uncertain future with their in-market television deal. Grant reported in October that Texas was hoping to keep their luxury tax number below next year’s $241MM base threshold. RosterResource calculates the Rangers’ CBT number around $195MM. They’ve got a decent amount of flexibility, but something like $22MM annually for Eovaldi would account for nearly half the gap. Texas needs to acquire multiple relievers as well, and teams generally prefer to leave some payroll space for deadline acquisitions. A club’s luxury tax number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so salary taken on midseason counts towards it on a prorated basis.

Eovaldi unsurprisingly has broad appeal on the market. He has gotten reported interest from the Orioles, Mets, Braves and Red Sox. He still has above-average velocity and is coming off a 3.80 ERA showing with good strikeout and walk numbers. Eovaldi also has a strong reputation for his performance in the postseason, including a 2.95 ERA over six starts during the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run.

Mets Notes: Bregman, Alonso, Loaisiga, Blackburn, Mauricio

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As if signing Juan Soto to a record contract wasn’t enough, the Mets could be exploring another big-ticket addition for the corner infield.  Ari Alexander of KPRC (X link) reports that the Mets are among the teams who have interest in Alex Bregman, while president of baseball operations David Stearns told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters that the Mets would “love to bring [Pete] Alonso back.”

While referring to Alonso’s market but perhaps speaking broadly about the Mets’ payroll situation as a whole, Stearns said “I think our ownership has consistently demonstrated that there’s going to be resources when we need them.  There is the ability for us to make baseball moves when we think that they’re there to improve the team, and we’re going to continue to pursue a wide variety of areas to continue to improve our team.”

This means that neither Alonso, Bregman, or perhaps a top-tier pitcher can be ruled out during what has already been an aggressive offseason in Queens.  The Mets had so much coming off the books this winter that even with Soto’s mega-deal now factored in, New York’s luxury tax number is still a relatively modest $251.8MM (as per RosterResource’s estimate).  While this is over the $241MM tax threshold, simply exceeding the tax line is nothing to Mets owner Steve Cohen, whose team had an estimated $358.1MM tax number in 2024.

Mark Vientos’ breakout season makes him a lock for one corner infield slot, giving New York some flexibility in deciding what to do with the other side of the diamond.  Vientos could just remain at the hot corner and the Mets could run it back entirely by re-signing a popular homegrown slugger Alonso.  Or, the Mets could shake things up by moving Vientos to first base, clearing room for Bregman as the new starting third baseman.

Both Bregman and Alonso rejected qualifying offers, though in re-signing Alonso, the Mets wouldn’t have to give up any compensation since he is their own free agent.  Signing Soto cost the Mets $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, so signing another QO-rejecting free agent would cost another $1MM of bonus pool funds plus two more picks — this time New York’s third- and sixth-highest selections.  It isn’t entirely out of the question that the Mets could burn such a big chunk of a draft year in search of premium win-now talent, though the club’s preference is likely to avoid another free agent tied to compensation.

Moving onto pitching targets, ESPN’s Jorge Castillo writes that the Mets are one of the teams linked to Jonathan Loaisiga’s market.  Loaisiga was known to have received interest from 14 teams, including both New York clubs.  Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is very familiar with Loaisiga from their shared time together in the Bronx when Mendoza was the Yankees’ bench coach.

Loaisiga pitched just four innings in the 2024 season before his year was cut short by a UCL-related surgery (not a Tommy John procedure).  Multiple injuries have limited Loaisiga to 219 2/3 innings since his MLB debut in 2018, but the right-hander has been an intriguing bullpen weapon when he’s been healthy, delivering a 3.28 ERA over 181 1/3 frames as a reliever.  The buy-low potential is strong, so it isn’t surprising that Loaisiga is drawing such widespread attention from teams in need of bullpen help.

Stearns also provided a couple of injury updates during his media session (hat tip to DiComo and Newsday’s Tim Healey).  The Mets believe Paul Blackburn will be ready for Opening Day in the aftermath of an October surgery to fix a spinal fluid leak.  As dangerous as that procedure sounds, it carried a relatively brief recovery timeline of 4-5 months, and the Mets are encouraged enough by Blackburn’s rehab to now project him on the shorter end of that timeframe.

Blackburn could be another part of New York’s bullpen picture, but Stearns said the right-hander is still being viewed as a starting pitching option.  Blackburn would currently line up as the fifth starter behind Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, and Clay Holmes, though both his health status throughout Spring Training and the Mets’ further offseason moves could impact that rotation job.  Acquired from the A’s at last year’s trade deadline, Blackburn was limited to five starts and 24 1/3 innings (posting a 5.18 ERA) due to both his back problem and a hand bruise.

It was almost exactly a year ago that top prospect Ronny Mauricio suffered a torn ACL during winter ball action, and Stearns said that Mauricio is now getting back to baseball-related activities.  A former regular of the top-100 prospect rankings, Mauricio made his MLB debut in the form of 26 games and 108 PA for the Mets in 2023, but his injury dealt a big setback to his chances of being a bigger part of the infield mix last season.

Mozeliak: “It’s My Intention To Try” For Arenado Trade

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8:06pm: At least a trio of “mid-market” teams have reached out to the Cardinals about Arenado’s availability, writes Katie Woo of the Athletic. She adds that the Yankees do indeed have interest in the star third baseman, though it’s not known if Arenado would waive his no-trade rights to go to the Bronx.

6:17pm: Nolan Arenado’s name has been floated as a natural trade candidate since the Cardinals are trying to reduce payroll to some extent, and perhaps aren’t making a full-fledged run at contention.  Despite the many obstacles involved in moving Arenado, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak outright stated “It’s my intention to try” to move Arenado this season when speaking today with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X), Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and other reporters.  A trade could come relatively soon, within the next 7-10 days but probably not during the Winter Meetings.

It is rare to see any executive be so forthcoming in discussing a player’s trade availability, particularly a player who is still under contract for the next three seasons.  However, even as Mozeliak recently walked back the idea of 2025 as a pure rebuilding year for the Cardinals, it seems as though the team would like to open up the third base spot for younger players, in addition to getting some of Arenado’s salary off the books.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, so he ultimately has the final say over where he plays in 2025 and beyond.  The fact that Mozeliak feels a trade is relatively close would imply that Arenado has already provisionally agreed to a deal to a particular team or to a few teams, so now the Cardinals are sorting through the best offers from this team or teams.  It is already known that Arenado is even willing to move off third base if that’s a better roster fit for a particular club, though it would seem unusual for the 10-time Gold Glover to move away from his accustomed position.

Beyond the no-trade protection, Arenado is owed $74MM over the three remaining years of his contract, though $10MM of that figure is covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis during the 2020-21 offseason.  The Cards could attempt to take on another unfavorable contract as salary offset, though that wouldn’t much help the club’s bigger-picture plans.

Finding a trade partner to absorb all of that $64MM would be easier if Arenado was still in his prime All-Star form, though his numbers have fallen off in the last two seasons.  Arenado has hit .269/.320/.426 with 42 home runs in 1247 plate appearances since Opening Day 2023, which is still above average (104 wRC+) production, yet not at his past standard.  His Isolated Power metric plummeted to .123 in 2024, the lowest of his career and drastically below his .241 average in the previous 11 seasons.

Position change notwithstanding, Arenado’s market could be helped by the fact that the pickings are a little slim for teams looking for third base help this winter.  Alex Bregman is easily the best option available in free agency, and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm might be the top third baseman available on the trade front.  If a club feels a change of scenery can produce a bounce-back year for Arenado, a trade might be possible, provided that Arenado is equally enthusiastic about this new location to okay a deal.  Reports indicate that the Yankees are one team that has been approached by the Cardinals about Arenado, though New York’s level of interest isn’t known.

Speaking of Cardinals players with no-trade protection, Miles Mikolas told Goold that he would prefer to stay in St. Louis for the final year of his contract.  Mikolas is owed $16MM in 2025, and finding a taker at that full price could be tricky anyway since Mikolas struggled to a 5.35 ERA over 171 2/3 innings last season.  While the 36-year-old still brings plenty of durability, the Cards might prefer such an innings-eater in their own rotation, since the team has already parted ways with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

White Sox Hire Joel McKeithan As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The White Sox announced their finalized coaching staff on Monday afternoon. The only previously unreported addition was the hiring of Joel McKeithan as assistant hitting coach. The Sox also revealed that former interim manager Grady Sizemore is taking the title of offensive coordinator.

McKeithan, 32, spent two years as Cincinnati’s hitting coach. The Reds found more success in 2023 than they did this past season. Cincinnati battled some injuries to key players (i.e. Matt McLain and TJ Friedl) and navigated a PED suspension for infielder Noelvi Marte. The finished in the bottom third of MLB in overall offense. Incoming manager Terry Francona parted ways with McKeithan and assistant hitting instructors Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

He and Sizemore will work on the offensive side along with returning hitting coach Marcus Thames. First-year skipper Will Venable tabbed Walker McKiven as his bench coach a few weeks ago. The Sox are otherwise retaining most of last year’s staff. Pitching coach Ethan Katz, first base coach Jason Bourgeois, third base coach Justin Jirschele, assistant pitching coach Matt Wise and catching coach Drew Butera are all back from last season.

Marlins Release Mike Baumann To Pursue NPB Opportunity

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7:22pm: Baumann is actually headed to Japan. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reports (on X) that the CAA client has agreed to a deal with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.

7:13pm: The Marlins released reliever Mike Baumann, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Miami’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Baumann landed with the Fish on a waiver claim in late August. They were rather incredibly his fifth team of the season. The out-of-options righty bounced around as the last man in the bullpen for each of the Orioles, Mariners, Giants and Angels as well. Baumann didn’t pitch especially well for any of those clubs. He finished the year with a 5.55 earned run average over 58 1/3 innings. His 22% strikeout percentage wasn’t far off the MLB average, but he walked an elevated 10.6% of opponents while giving up plenty of hard contact.

The 29-year-old was a capable middle reliever for the Orioles as recently as 2023. He worked to a 3.76 ERA in a career-high 64 2/3 innings with Baltimore two seasons ago. Assuming he clears release waivers, Baumann will become a free agent. He’s probably looking at minor league deals but won’t have any issue getting a non-roster invite to MLB camp.

As for Miami, the move appears to be related to Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft. The Fish could not have made a selection if they went into the draft with a full 40-man roster. Miami picks third behind the White Sox and Rockies. The Marlins could have a target of their own in mind or try to work out a draft-and-trade with a team that sits lower in the order.

Roberts: Shohei Ohtani “Very Unlikely” To Pitch In Dodgers’ Opening Series

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Shohei Ohtani hasn’t thrown a big league pitch since August 23, 2023, as the superstar underwent a UCL surgery that kept him off the mound for the entirety of the 2024 season.  Ohtani is expected to return to pitching during the 2025 campaign, though Dodgers manager Dave Roberts it is “very unlikely” Ohtani pitches during the team’s season-opening series in Tokyo against the Cubs on March 18-19.

“I just don’t see us starting the clock in March to then think that we would keep that continuously going through October. Then, that would call for a break or reprieve in the middle of the season, so I don’t know,” Roberts told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and other reporters.

Ohtani’s recovery process hit a minor speed bump when he suffered a labrum tear in his left (non-throwing) shoulder while attempting to steal second base in Game 2 of the World Series.  He underwent arthroscopic surgery to address the problem shortly after the Fall Classic was over, and he is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training, at least as a hitter.

“I don’t think the left shoulder is going to have much of an impact on Shohei’s pitching,” Roberts said, noting that Ohtani’s elbow is naturally “the biggest factor.”  The manager didn’t have a set idea yet about “when he starts pitching in Major League games,” other than to say that the Dodgers wouldn’t be pushing the two-way star back to the mound until he is ready.

For the second straight year, Los Angeles is opening the season a little earlier than the rest of the league by playing in an international series.  The Dodgers faced the Padres in a two-game series in Seoul last March, and now they’ll head to Tokyo for what is expected to be an even bigger event, given Ohtani’s return to his home country.  This bit of schedule irregularity adds another wrinkle to the Dodgers’ plans, both for Ohtani specifically and for the roster in general, given how the team has to ramp up for regular-season games in between two long international flights and then return to Cactus League play before the full season slate begins on March 27.

It should be noted that Roberts downplayed the idea of Ohtani pitching in those two games in Japan, but not the possibility of pitching during that March 27-29 series against the Tigers.  The Dodgers’ plan of using a six-man rotation adds more flexibility, since the team is trying to create extra rest for not just Ohtani, but several pitchers with a checkered health history.  While L.A. was able to overcome a mountain of pitching injuries to win the World Series, obviously the team would like to avoid walking that same tightrope in 2025, and would prefer to have a proper rotation healthy and ready for another deep postseason run.

Like always, Ohtani will be a fascinating figure to watch, as his Dodgers debut as a pitcher is now the follow-up to his magical first season with the organization.  Ohtani’s time with the Angels is clear evidence that he can produce at a high level as both a pitcher and hitter simultaneously, but doing so after a major UCL-related injury does add another degree of difficulty to Ohtani’s already-unique skillset.

Jace Jung Underwent Wrist Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Tigers third baseman Jace Jung underwent an arthroscopic procedure on his right wrist in October, the team announced this evening. The talented infielder has already begun a hitting program and is expected to be full go for Spring Training.

Jung is the in-house favorite for Detroit’s third base job. The Tigers have been frequently connected to Alex Bregman, largely because of the history with manager A.J. Hinch, but there’s no indication they’re willing to make that level of long-term commitment. Jung’s minor surgery isn’t going to have any impact on a potential Bregman pursuit, of course. Assuming he recovers as expected, he’s on track to vie with Matt Vierling and Andy Ibáñez for playing time.

A former 12th overall pick, Jung made his MLB debut late in the season. He appeared in 34 games, hitting .241/.362/.304 without a home run through 94 trips to the plate. The lefty-hitting Jung had a strong year in Triple-A. Over 91 games, he hit .257/.377/.454 with 14 longballs and an excellent 16.1% walk rate.

In another development on the Detroit infield, Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic tweets that Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy will take offseason reps at first base. Keith is expected to remain the team’s primary second baseman, as the measure is simply designed to increase his versatility on the right side of the infield.

It could be a more consequential development for Malloy, who has always been a promising hitter without a defensive home. Malloy worked in the corner outfield or at designated hitter as a rookie. He played third base in the minors through 2023 but was panned by scouts for his glove. Malloy logged a little bit of first base action in college but hasn’t played there professionally. Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson could have a tenuous hold on the starting job. Detroit is reportedly among the teams that have been in contact with Paul Goldschmidt as they look for a right-handed bat this winter.

Astros Not Ruling Out Potential Trades of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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6:35pm: In a full column at The Athletic, Rome writes that the Astros have unsurprisingly received calls on Tucker. He indicates that none of those discussions have become serious but reports that Brown is indeed willing to consider moving one of the two players if the right opportunity presents itself.

6:20pm: Astros general manager Dana Brown met with reporters this evening at the Winter Meetings. In addition to reiterating their longstanding desire to re-sign Alex Bregman, Brown left the door at least slightly open to trading one of his star players.

In response to a question about the team’s willingness to field interest in Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, Brown replied he “would listen on all the players” (X link with video via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). It doesn’t seem they’re actively shopping either, however.

“We’ll listen on anybody. We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door… If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it,” Brown expanded (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). “So it really would have to make sense. Because right now we’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”

An open-mindedness to conversation isn’t a declaration that either player is on the block. It still seems likelier than not that both will begin next season in Houston. That said, there’s at least a little bit of chatter about the possibility of the Astros pulling off a blockbuster. Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the idea last week, pointing out that it’d open a fair amount of immediate payroll space while helping to replenish a poor farm system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that there’s “some buzz” around the Meetings regarding the potential for a Tucker trade, in particular.

Both players would net a strong return. They’re each down to their final year of arbitration but are among the best in baseball at their respective positions. Tucker, whom MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a $15.8MM salary, hit 23 home runs in only 78 games this year. He slashed .289/.408/.585 across 339 plate appearances. A nagging right leg injury cost him a few months, but Tucker’s rate production was the best of his career. He’s one of the game’s five to 10 best hitters and trending towards a free agent deal that could push near $400MM.

There’s little to suggest the Astros are going to make a push to sign Tucker to that kind of contract. Even if they expect him to walk in 12 months, a trade would be a tough sell. Houston is trying to win another AL West title. They wouldn’t come close to replacing Tucker’s production if they move him. They’re already thin in the outfield, where Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers are the other projected starters. Yordan Alvarez could see time in left field, but manager Joe Espada said today the Astros were hoping to scale back his outfield work to give him more reps at designated hitter (X link via Rome).

Valdez probably wouldn’t bring quite the same return as Tucker. He’d arguably be easier to replace, though the Astros would be placing a lot of faith in injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. to do so. The southpaw is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing through 176 2/3 innings. Valdez has topped 175 frames in three straight years. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 3.45 in any of those seasons. While his strikeout rates are more good than great, Valdez posts elite ground-ball numbers.

Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary in his final arbitration year. That’s a notable sum but still well below what he’d make for one season if he were a free agent. (Frankie Montas just signed for $17MM annually over two seasons, for example.) Valdez is going into his age-31 season and could be limited to a five-year free agent contract, but he’s on track for a deal that lands well north of $100MM. The Astros have a better chance of re-signing him than they do of keeping Tucker, but neither player seems especially likely to remain in Houston after next season.

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