Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd
John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings. On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit. Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…
- Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays‘ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
- There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield. With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
- The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training. Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe. If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
- It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.” Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits. Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.
A’s Notes: Coghlan, Crisp, Gray
With the current focus on teams “tanking” seasons, ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) observes that the Athletics’ run over the last two decades is all the more remarkable since the team has never entirely torn things down to rebuild. Last season was the first time since 1997 that Oakland won fewer than 74 games, and even in the wake of 2015’s disappointment, the A’s still made offseason moves with an eye on returning to contention in 2016. Here’s some more from the Athletics’ camp…
- Chris Coghlan is looking forward to his new role as a super-utility man, the newly-acquired Athletic told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). “When I was younger, my ego, I was like, ‘I want to play one position,’ but as you grow, to be able to play different positions really helps the team, so I’ve learned to embrace it….Zo [Ben Zobrist] set the bar. There were people before, but Zo made it sexy and and cool to be the utility guy. Before, it meant you aren’t an everyday guy. Now it’s the cool thing. So mad props to him,” Coghlan said.
- Despite the numerous injuries that have set back his career, Coco Crisp tells CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich that he has no plans on retiring. “Really, who wants to stop playing? It’s been everybody’s dream for so long.” Crisp said. “I do enjoy my family, my kids, and I want to be there for them. And I also want them to be able to see their father, (when they’re) at an older age, play ball. And experience some of the joys of being a ballplayer’s kid.” Crisp said he would love to keep playing in Oakland past this season, the last guaranteed year on his contract. Crisp has a $13MM vesting option for 2017 based on amassing either 130 games played or 550 plate appearances this year, though either threshold will be hard to achieve given both his injury history and the Athletics’ logjam of outfield/DH options.
- In a piece about young pitchers who are good extension candidates, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards highlights Sonny Gray‘s case for a multi-year deal. Trade rumors have often swirled around Gray since it has been assumed that the A’s can’t afford him once he hits free agency after the 2019 season, and Edwards notes that an extension wouldn’t make sense if Oakland plans on dealing Gray within the next year (the star righty becomes arbitration-eligible next winter). In the short term, however, Edwards argues that a Gray extension helps the Athletics continue to stay competitive and also retains Gray’s trade value. In this case, both the A’s and potential trade suitors would be gaining cost certainty on Gray through his arb years.
AL Central Notes: Uribe, Tribe, Lincecum, Anibal, Sweeney
Juan Uribe‘s career isn’t over yet, as evidenced by his $4MM agreement to play for the Indians this season. When Uribe does hang up his glove, however, he’ll have no shortage of post-playing opportunities — Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that at least three teams have offered to hire the highly-respected veteran infielder for jobs in their organizations. Here’s some more from around the AL Central…
- Indians skipper Terry Francona tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) that he’s comfortable with his team’s roster and that he “won’t be pushing [president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti] to do something” about adding a free agent outfielder. Cleveland has question marks in the outfield all winter, even before yesterday’s news about Abraham Almonte‘s 80-game PED suspension. The Tribe has several veteran and minor league outfielders in camp, though few solid options, especially with Almonte suspended and star Michael Brantley on the DL to begin the season.
- The Tigers will have scouts on hand at Tim Lincecum‘s yet-to-be-scheduled showcase, ESPN.com’s Katie Strang reports. Detroit will be one of many teams on hand to see the former Cy Young winner throw, as at least 20 teams have reportedly already looked at Lincecum’s medicals. The Tigers have a projected rotation of Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey with Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Shane Greene in contention for the fifth spot. While there are certainly some question marks here, it could be tough for Lincecum to find the MLB deal he’s seeking in the Motor City.
- An MRI revealed that Anibal Sanchez has mild inflammation in his right triceps, the Tigers told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck). The righty hasn’t thrown since Monday and his first spring start could be delayed, though the club is hoping to have him throwing again within a few days. ” I guess you’re always cringing when it involves one of your starting pitchers,” manager Brad Ausmus said, though the problem is considered to be fairly minor.
- A chance airport meeting between Twins GM Terry Ryan and Ryan Sweeney‘s agent may have led to Sweeney’s minor league deal with the club, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. The veteran outfielder was cut by the Cubs last spring and, despite interest from at least a couple of teams, Sweeney decided to sit out the 2015 season in order to let some nagging injuries heal. (Sweeney also had the benefit of still receiving the $2MM owed to him by the Cubs.) “After a while, it was tough, but I trusted that I could get back in the game,” Sweeney said. “I don’t know if your pride gets hurt, but I had a little bit of a chip on my shoulder. I was ready to get back.”
- Fernando Abad blamed his disappointing 2015 season on not playing winter ball last offseason, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes. Abad returned to the Dominican Winter League this year and is looking to rebound after signing a minor league deal with the Twins.
NL West Notes: CarGo, Padres, Dee, Arroyo, Cain, Dodgers
Another winter of trade speculation was no big deal to Carlos Gonzalez, as the Rockies star tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. “Of course, it’s hard for…guys who’ve been with one organization for so long. But I understand the process. I’ve been traded twice, so it’s nothing new for me,” Gonzalez said. Colorado’s lack of success has put Gonzalez in the middle of several trade rumors over the last few years, and that talk intensified when Troy Tulowitzki was dealt last summer. So far, however, the Rockies have resisted pursuing a full rebuild. Here’s some more from around the NL West…
- The Padres are “keeping some dry power” payroll-wise for midseason moves, team president/CEO Mike Dee told reporters (including Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “(We will) see how the Major League season unfolds, and we could be a participant in an additive way in July if the team performs as we hope,” Dee said. The Padres’ payroll projects to be roughly $8MM less than last year’s approximate $108MM Opening Day figure, and given how much ownership and the front office has already invested last winter, you would think they’d be open to making up that difference should a notable upgrade be available at the trade deadline. Dee also stressed that “the overall investment this year when the season is over and the book is written will be significantly more than what was the investment in 2015,” in regards to how the Padres are planning to heavily spend in both the amateur draft and the international market.
- The Padres own six of the first 85 picks in the draft (including three of the first 26) and they’re known to be ready to exceed their spending pool limit in the upcoming international signing period. In an online chat with Union-Tribune readers, Lin writes that though it may take a couple of years for this young talent to develop, general manager A.J. Preller “can’t afford to miss much this summer. June and July could eventually play a large part in determining his fate as GM.” Lin’s chat also contains several updates on Padres roster and position battles.
- With Brandon Crawford locked up in an extension, Giants shortstop prospect Christian Arroyo knows a position switch may be in his future, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News writes. Arroyo cited second, third and the outfield as possible options, and “as far as moving positions, I’m open to anything. I want to help the team win.” With Joe Panik and Matt Duffy covering second and third in San Francisco, however, this could be why Giants farm director Shane Turner said that “down the road, we’ve got to look at left field.” The 2016 Baseball America Handbook described Arroyo as a probable “fringe-average defender at shortstop” due to a lack of range, so a position change could’ve been in the offing anyway. Whatever his position, Arroyo’s accomplished bat has earned him some notice; BA lists him as the Giants’ top prospect and the game’s 62nd-best prospect overall.
- Giants righty Matt Cain had a cyst removed from his arm on Thursday and will be out of action for roughly the next week, though Bruce Bochy tells media (including MLB.com’s Chris Haft) that he thinks the setback shouldn’t cause Cain to miss any time in the regular season. Though the cyst is a pretty minor issue, it marks yet another setback for Cain as he tries to rebound from two injury-plagued seasons.
- “Lots of options, little certainty” is how Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times describes the Dodgers‘ outfield situation. The club technically has a surplus in the outfield with Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Scott Van Slyke and Trayce Thompson all in the mix, though just about everyone on that list is questionable due to either injury history or inexperience. Ethier is “the closest thing to a lock” of the seven, though he’ll be 34 on Opening Day and is rarely used against left-handed pitching.
- In other NL West news from earlier today, the Diamondbacks signed Rickie Weeks to a minor league deal.
Diamondbacks Sign Rickie Weeks To Minor League Deal
The Diamondbacks have signed infielder/outfielder Rickie Weeks to a minor league contract, as per the team’s official Twitter feed. The deal contains an invitation to their big league Spring Training camp. Weeks is represented by the Legacy Agency.
Weeks hit just .167/.263/.250 in 95 plate appearances with the Mariners last season before being released in June. He’ll provide the D’Backs with some minor league depth at both his natural second base position and possibly in left field, as he appeared in 19 games in left last season (the first time he’d played outfield in his 13-year pro career).
Weeks, 33, was selected by the Brewers with second overall pick of the 2003 draft and delivered some big seasons as Milwaukee’s regular second baseman before struggling to just a .228/.323/.389 slash line in 1457 PA over the last four seasons. That total includes a strong .809 OPS in part-time action in 2014, boosted by terrific numbers against left-handed pitching. With so many right-handed hitting infield and outfield options in Arizona’s camp already, however, it may be tough for Weeks to find a spot on the 25-man roster.
Dexter Fowler Notes: White Sox, Orioles, Jones
Here’s some of the fallout surrounding Dexter Fowler‘s surprising return to the Cubs, especially as it pertains to his would-be new team in Baltimore…
- The White Sox offered Fowler a two-year contract worth more than $17MM, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports. The offer was for a set two years and didn’t include an opt-out clause or a mutual option after the first season. Fowler’s deal with the Cubs guarantees him $8MM in 2016, and then he and the team can either both enact a $9MM mutual option for 2017 or the Cubs can buy Fowler out for $5MM. It’s clear that Fowler and agent Casey Close were focused on flexibility after the 2016 season, as the Orioles’ refusal to include an opt-out clause is what caused the breakdown in talks between the two sides. The Sox have been known to be interested in Fowler and others this winter as they continue to look for corner outfield help, though the club hasn’t yet done much in the way of major moves to address left or right field. Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia are still on hand as the incumbent starters, though both had sub-replacement level seasons in 2015. Signing Fowler would’ve represented a major upgrade for the Pale Hose yet also cost the team the 27th overall pick in the draft since Fowler was a qualifying offer free agent. The top White Sox pick (the 10th overall selection) was protected, with the later first-round selection given to the team as compensation for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants.
- With Fowler no longer an option, the Orioles are likely to pursue another corner outfielder, MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli writes. Manager Buck Showalter is satisfied with his internal options, which include the likes of Mark Trumbo (who will probably see lot of DH time), Nolan Reimold, Henry Urrutia, Dariel Alvarez and Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard on the 40-man roster. Urrutia is the only left-handed hitter of the bunch, so one of the righty-swingers will be used to complement new addition Hyun-soo Kim in left field. Ghiroli cites Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson or Pedro Alvarez as possible targets for the Orioles, with Alvarez joining the club as a DH and Trumbo then getting most of his playing time in right. With so many right-handed hitting outfielders already in the mix, left-handed hitting free agents like David Murphy, Grady Sizemore or David DeJesus also make sense as speculative fits.
- One of the many unusual aspects of the Fowler/Orioles drama was that Adam Jones seemingly had verbal confirmation from Fowler that the outfielder was indeed joining the team. Jones addressed that situation with reporters (including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun), saying he was surprised to learn Fowler wasn’t signing with the O’s but there was no issue between he and Fowler. “At the end of the day, he’s happy where he’s at. His family is happy in Chicago, so good for him,” Jones said. He also expressed that this gives an opportunity to the Orioles’ other outfielders, and noted that the O’s could pursue midseason upgrades with the money they saved on Fowler’s contract.
Rangers Reportedly Expressed Interest In Ian Desmond As Left Fielder
11:02pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that the Rangers have indeed reached out to Desmond’s camp on what he terms a “fact-finding mission,” but he hears that there have been no substantive negotiations to this point.
10:43pm: The Rangers have reached out to the representatives for Ian Desmond with the idea of deploying Desmond as a left fielder, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter).
Throughout the offseason, there’s been talk that Desmond could draw interest from clubs at a position other than shortstop, though there are a number of obstacles standing between Desmond and an agreement with the Rangers. For starters, Texas has repeatedly been said to be averse to adding further payroll, as they’re already looking at what projects to be a club-record payroll north of $145MM. Beyond that, the Rangers would have to surrender the No. 19 overall pick in the 2016 draft in order to sign Desmond. While that cost isn’t as steep as the draft-pick cost that would face some of Desmond’s other potential suitors (most notably, the Rays), it’s still a definite part of the club’s equation when weighing a run at Desmond. The Rangers picked up the No. 30 overall selection in the draft when Yovani Gallardo signed with Baltimore, though, so they would still have a first-round selection were they to forfeit their top pick for Desmond. That selection wouldn’t move up a spot, however, as the Nationals, who finished with a worse record than the Rangers, would gain a compensatory pick that would slot in ahead of the Rangers’ No. 30 selection.
Desmond endured perhaps his worst full season in the Majors last year, but he did rebound with a .262/.331/.446 second half, during which he homered a dozen times and stole eight bases. As it stands right now, Josh Hamilton is atop the Rangers’ depth chart in left field, but Hamilton is already slated to open the season on the disabled list and is unlikely to be relied upon as an everyday contributor even when fully healthy; given his recent injury history, Hamilton will probably require frequent rest in order to avoid the DL over the course of the season.
The Rangers did add Drew Stubbs on a minor league deal today, creating a bit more depth in their outfield mix, and top prospects such as Nomar Mazara and Lewis Brinson are inching closer to the Majors and could be ready by midseason. Hamilton, additionally, is slated to return to the club in early May, so Texas doesn’t appear to be in dire need of a left fielder — particularly not one that would figure to push the payroll up into the $160MM range for the upcoming season. Learning a new position on the job wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for either the Rangers or Desmond, but at this stage of the offseason, few clubs have definitive openings at shortstop, and the teams that do have such vacancies haven’t expressed significant interest in Desmond, so it’s possible that his eventual team isn’t one that stands out as a readily apparent suitor at the moment.
Giants Interested In Ryan Raburn
The Giants have been in contact with free agent outfielder Ryan Raburn recently, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. However, there are some roadblocks to a potential match — namely that Raburn has been insistent on a Major League contract in free agency this offseason, and the Giants would prefer to add him on a minor league deal. San Francisco’s 40-man roster is full at present, and the team doesn’t wish to designate someone for assignment in order to create a spot for Raburn, whom it would view as the 25th man on its 25-man roster.
After a down year in 2014, Raburn enjoyed an excellent rebound campaign in 2015. The 34-year-old (35 in April) was deployed almost exclusively as a platoon option by the Indians last year, recording just 25 plate appearances against right-handed pitching against 176 PAs versus lefties. Raburn tattooed left-handers at a .325/.415/.589 clip, ripping eight homers and 16 doubles in that fairly small sample of plate appearances. Raburn has carved out a niche for himself as a weapon against left-handed pitching late in his career, and he’d presumably be used as a bench piece for the Giants. He offered a bit of defensive versatility earlier in his career when he could be relied upon as an option at second or third base, but he hasn’t played third base since 2011 or second base since 2013, when he totaled just 17 innings there.
The Giants don’t necessarily need to add another outfield piece, with Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Hunter Pence and Gregor Blanco all present on the 40-man roster in addition to prospects Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker. Pagan, though, has struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and the switch-hitter has better career numbers against right-handers than left-handers. The left-handed-hitting Blanco, too, has been stronger against righties.
Baggarly doesn’t seem to imply that the Giants could change their stance on offering a Major League deal, noting that the likeliest means of Raburn ending up with San Francisco would be if he cannot land a big league deal elsewhere. Of course, an injury early in camp, whether on the Giants roster or another club’s roster, could create an opening for Raburn.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/26/16
Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Dodgers announced that they’ve released right-hander Brooks Brown. The 30-year-old Brown had spent the past two seasons with the Rockies, for whom he made his Major League debut in 2014. Los Angeles claimed him off waivers back in October and went on to outright him to Triple-A in December in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Formerly the No. 34 overall pick in the draft (D-backs, 2006), Brown bounced from Arizona to Detroit to Pittsburgh before reaching the Majors as a Rockie. He went on to log 59 innings out of the Colorado bullpen across the past two seasons, recording a 3.97 ERA while averaging 6.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.
International Notes: Diamondbacks, La O, Gutierrez
The D-backs made a minor international move today, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports, signing 18-year-old Mexican right-hander Edgar Martinez for an undisclosed bonus. While the exact amount given to Martinez isn’t known, the signing bonus is required to come in at $300K or less, as the D-backs are barred from signing international amateurs for more than that figure during this signing period and the 2016-17 international signing period as a result of their spending in the 2014-15 signing period. The addition of Martinez could be a sign of things to come, Sanchez writes, as Arizona is making an effort to increase its presence in Mexico. The D-backs introduced three new employees at a press conference in Mexico last month with an eye toward acquiring more Mexican talent in the future. “We naturally want to have a presence down there, not only from a marketing standpoint, but from a scouting perspective,” CEO Derrick Hall explained to Sanchez. “For me, the priority is to find and develop a top talent from Mexico.”
A couple of more notes on some more prominent international free agents…
- Free agent third baseman Luis Yander La O has signed with the Legacy Agency, tweets Sanchez. The 24-year-old, who is exempt from international bonus pools, is exploring the market and preparing for a possible showcase, Sanchez notes. MLB declared La O a free agent a month ago, and Baseball America’s Ben Badler has previously written that La O is nearly MLB-ready. La O doesn’t possess much power but had an extraordinarily low strikeout rate in Cuba (five percent) and is said to be an above-average defender at third base that can handle second base as well.
- Sanchez also reported yesterday that right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez is also being repped by Legacy after signing on with the agency recently (Twitter link). Gutierrez is “on track” to host a showcase sometime next month, Sanchez adds. Gutierrez has been a free agent since last July, but there’s been very little talk about the talented right-hander since that time. When he was declared a free agent, Badler noted that some scouts preferred Gutierrez’s overall package to that of $16MM Dodgers right-hander Yadier Alvarez. The 20-year-old Gutierrez is subject to bonus pools and is currently the top-ranked unsigned amateur on Sanchez’s rankings at MLB.com (No. 2 overall). Sanchez notes that Gutierrez has a low-90s fastball and plus curveball in his scouting report.