Reactions To Inclusion Of Mark Appel In Ken Giles Trade
The Astros and Phillies made the Ken Giles trade official today, but a key component changed sometime between Wednesday and this morning. Outfield prospect Derek Fisher was originally slated to join the Phillies in the swap. He was pulled from the deal and replaced by former number one pick Mark Appel and pitcher Harold Arauz. The Astros also acquired 17-year-old middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz (no relation).
Here are some reactions to the inclusion of Appel:
- Baseball America’s Vince Lara-Cinisomo provides a scouting report of Appel, grading his slider and changeup as his best pitches. Appel gets into trouble when he isn’t hitting spots with his offspeed pitches. His delivery and fastball offer little in the way of deception which can allow hitters to get into a groove. His fastball still runs up into the mid-90s, but it isn’t a plus pitch. Some scouts think he’ll stick in the rotation while others see him as a quality setup man. My opinion: Appel could benefit from adding a cut fastball, although that can be easier said than done.
- Two scouts figure the Astros gave up nearly as much as the Red Sox did for Craig Kimbrel, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. One fan asked why the Astros didn’t acquire Kimbrel during the season if they were willing to trade so much for a reliever. Per Drellich (tweet), “I believe the way the ALDS progressed gave the Astros fresh perspective.“
- There were dozens of permutations of the trade, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Drellich (Twitter link). This is why the end result is different than earlier reports.
- Baseball America’s JJ Cooper thinks Appel and Fisher are comparable prospects (on Twitter). Drellich concurs (tweet), saying that Fisher is more likely to reach his ceiling. That seemingly implies that Appel is more likely to reach the majors if they are comparable assets. These are all sentiments with which I agree.
- The Astros were wise to deal Appel now, opines Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter). Appel would have faced increased scrutiny if he continued to post mediocre numbers in the Astros farm system. Meanwhile, Drellich and Cooper see Appel as a change of scenery candidate who could benefit from a fresh approach in Philadelphia.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Gio, Yelich, Cespedes, Freeman
Phillies GM Matt Klentak must see upside in bounceback starters like Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton, tweets ESPN’s Jayson Stark (1, 2). Both pitchers are a year from free agency. As Stark puts it, the club gave up replaceable parts for the chance to re-market them to contending clubs at the trade deadline. From my perspective both pitchers also give the Phillies the opportunity to compete in the weak NL East. Philadelphia took some momentum into the offseason with a solid second half. While a hypothetical rebound campaign would probably ultimately sputter like the Braves’ 2015 season, it doesn’t hurt to put some parts in position just in case. The Phillies also have several pitching prospects due to debut during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Hellickson and Morton can hold the door just long enough for the next guy.
Here’s more from the rest of the division:
- The Marlins inquired about Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Talks promptly concluded when the Nationals asked for outfielder Christian Yelich in return. It’s possible the Marlins see Gonzalez as a match for Marcell Ozuna (my speculation), but it’s always hard to work out an in-division trade – especially when both teams aim to contend.
- Even though former Mets outfielder Michael Cuddyer is now off the books, the club isn’t likely to jump on top outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $12.5MM saved from Cuddyer (assuming there was no buyout), will probably be used on quality bench depth. The team improved dramatically when they acquired Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. Ensuring that similarly valuable players are available to fill cracks in the roster will better serve the Mets hunt for contention.
- It may be time for the Braves to trade Freddie Freeman, suggests Mike Petriello of MLB.com. The trades of Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons have focused the club’s talent in the minor leagues. Freeman could be used to acquire another impressive haul. The Braves are already gearing up for a lengthy rebuilding process, so they might as well get top dollar for Freeman before he begins to decline.
- Nationals infielder Danny Espinosa wants to start at shortstop next season, writes Todd Dybas of the Washington Times. After two consecutive bad seasons, Espinosa rebounded in 2015 with a 2.3 WAR campaign. Good defense in a utility role plus an improvement at the plate to roughly league average helped. He improved his plate discipline which looks like a sustainable fix. Even with the solid season, Espinosa will have to hold off top prospect Trea Turner. Acquired in the Steven Souza trade, Turner appears ready for a major league opportunity.
Pirates Notes: Morton, Pitching, Melancon, Niese, Nicasio, Kang
The Pirates are one of several teams holding a FanFest today. Reporters, including MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth, were on hand for the Q&A with GM Neal Huntington. The Pirates’ GM admitted that today’s Morton swap was mostly about payroll relief, although the club does like David Whitehead.
Here’s more Pirates notes:
- Today’s trade of Charlie Morton will likely instigate “multiple moves,” tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. After the move, the Pirates payroll is around $88MM with a target of about $105MM per Biertempfel (tweet). Huntington told reporters including MLB.com’s Adam Berry (tweet), “A big part of the motivation was to free some dollars to allow us to deepen the club, to reestablish some depth.“
- Industry sources implied to Biertempfel (tweet) that pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, or others over $10MM per season are not on the Pirates radar. However, there is no doubt that at least one starting pitcher is on the agenda. The rotation presently consists of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, and Jeff Locke. Presumably, the club prefers for Locke or Niese to fill a long relief role with Allen Webster serving as minor league depth. Top prospect Tyler Glasnow is not expected to reach the majors early in the season.
- Closer Mark Melancon is expected to earn $10MM in arbitration per MLBTR estimates, but the club is under no pressure to trade him, tweets Biertempfel. The team could potentially get by in the late innings with Tony Watson, Arquimedes Caminero, and new acquisition Juan Nicasio. However, a bullpen with Melancon is certainly more robust. With the market for quality closers at a premium, Pittsburgh would find it difficult to replace Melancon. Per Huntington, “if somebody steps up and gives us a return that’s significant enough to motivate us to get a little bit uncomfortable, then we get a little bit uncomfortable.” (h/t to Wilmoth for the quote).
- In commenting on Nicasio, Huntinton told Wilmoth, “We do think there are some things we can help him with. Now, is it going to be enough to make him a good starter? Time will tell. Is it going to be enough to make him a really good reliever? Time will tell.” The Pirates have developed a reputation as a haven for reclamation projects which could make Nicasio an interesting player to watch.
- Comparing recent acquisition Jon Niese to the market, Huntington said “he’ll continue to put up numbers similar to guys who are getting sixty, seventy, eighty, ninety million dollars in free agency — we have three, essentially, one-year contracts with Jon Niese.” While Niese comes with less cachet than somebody like Mike Leake, it’s true that they project to perform similarly. As such, Huntington may very well beat the market with this swap.
- Huntington says Jung-ho Kang is more likely to return in April than May, per Berry (tweet). If true, this is a lucky break for the club. They currently have some combination of Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Alen Hanson, and Pedro Florimon penciled in for second base, shortstop, and third base. An injury or poor performance from Hanson could leave the club scrambling for reinforcements.
- The Pirates will retrench in 2016 with an aim to contend again in 2017, writes John Perotto of the Beaver County Times. While the club will still pursue a postseason berth next year, they’ll have their eyes on developing top prospects like Josh Bell, Glasnow, and Jameson Taillon.
Carlos Beltran May Retire After 2016 Season
Carlos Beltran may retire after the 2016 season, reports Zach Braziller of the New York Post. Beltran is entering his age 39 season and the final campaign of a three-year, $45MM deal signed prior to 2014. Beltran allowed that his decision will be affected by the level of performance he believes he can contribute in 2017. “If I feel like I produce well to the point where I can make a good impact on a team, then I can play one more year. Or if I feel like I have [had] enough, I’ll go home.”
After a rough 2014 campaign, the Yankees outfielder bounced back in 2015 with a .276/.337/.471 line and slightly below average defense in 531 plate appearances. Injuries have slowed Beltran in his time with New York too. While the original plan probably included using him at designated hitter with regularity, the returns of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira last season forced Beltran into the outfield. The club will have to juggle a similar alignment this year.
If it is indeed the last season for Beltran, he’ll go out with an impressive 19-year resume. Over parts of 18 seasons, the switch-hitter has posted a career .280/.355/.490 line with 392 home runs, 311 stolen bases, and 2,454 hits in 9,929 plate appearances. He’s poised to reach 400 home runs, 2,500 hits, and 10,000 plate appearances this year. Defensive metrics also rated him as an excellent defender during his prime. With 66 career WAR, he has a legitimate case for Hall of Fame honors.
Bolstering his candidacy is a strong postseason track record. In 223 plate appearances, Beltran hit .332/.441/.674 with 16 home runs and 40 RBI. Win Probability Added (WPA), an advanced stat that measures the value of each play relative to the state of the game*, credits Beltran with about three wins in what amounts to about a third of a season. In other words, he hit like the 2015 version of Bryce Harper when the games counted the most.
Beltran has spent most of his career split between the Royals, Mets, Cardinal, and Yankees. He spent half the 2004 season with the playoff bound Astros – a year that included his best postseason performance. His .435/.536/1.022 October slash set up a seven-year, $119MM contract with the Mets. At the time, it was just the 10th deal to cross the $100MM threshold. Notably, the Giants traded Zack Wheeler for Beltran at the 2011 trade deadline.
*By comparison, WAR measures the value of each play without regard to game context. According to WAR, a walkoff grand slam down three runs in the bottom of the ninth is equally valuable as a grand slam in a 20-1 blowout. Using WPA, the walkoff grand slam is hugely valuable whereas the blowout grand slam is worth almost nothing.
Orioles Notes: Davis, Alvarez, Pearce
At an annual fan event, Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette confirmed the club has pulled its $150MM offer to Chris Davis, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Talks have not been terminated, but Duquette implied it would be up to Davis’ agent Scott Boras to revisit negotiations. Duquette also stated that Davis has not been involved in the process – all talks have gone through Boras (this is typical but worth noting). For his part, Boras says he has been given no indication that talks are closed, per Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (tweet).
Here’s the latest from the O’s including more information via Kubatko from their fan event.
- Duquette also commented on Jason Heyward‘s contract structure (tweet). With regard to Heyward’s two opt-outs, “That kind of structure wouldn’t work for the Orioles.” While long-term contracts with opt-outs are becoming more popular as a means to keep average annual value in check, some teams may not be comfortable accepting the back-end risk if a player implodes unexpectedly.
- Also per Kubatko (tweet), Duquette will use some of the money budgeted for Davis on other players. However, the club probably will not spend all of it this winter. To me, that seems to rule out a pursuit of Justin Upton or Alex Gordon.
- If talks with Davis fall through, the O’s may turn their attention to Pedro Alvarez, tweets CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. Alvarez offers many of the same characteristics as Davis, but with less defensive versatility. His left-handed power bat would be a good fit for the AL East. Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium are two of the best parks for left-handed home runs. The Brewers are also in on Alvarez.
- Orioles free agent Steve Pearce is “under consideration,” per Duquette (tweet). Entering his age 33 season, Pearce has compiled 5.6 career WAR over parts of nine campaigns. However, 4.9 of those wins were earned in his excellent 2014 season. He declined dramatically in 2015 over a similar number of plate appearances. He did fill a useful utility role by playing at first, second, and both corner outfields last season.
- Meanwhile, VP of baseball operations Brady Anderson is disappointed that Davis and reliever Darren O’Day reached free agency, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. “When you have him [O’Day], he makes it look so easy, you forget how hard it is and it can cost you millions of dollars. In Darren’s case, that is what happened. In Chris Davis’ case, the same thing is happening.” Anderson notes that small- and mid-market clubs have to be more successful in signing players to long term extensions.
Latest On Nationals Outfield Search
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was disappointed to fall short of signing Jason Heyward, tweets William Ladson of MLB.com. The exact terms of their offer to Heyward are unknown, but it’s thought that they were prepared to guarantee at least $200MM. The club still covets a left-handed outfielder.
Here’s the latest on their search along with other Nats notes:
- The Nationals are in on Rockies outfielders Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, tweets Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. Gonzalez and Blackmon figure to command a hefty return. The oft-injured Gonzalez, 30, played in 153 games last season. He caught fire in the second half of the season with a .285/.337/.638 triple slash. He also reached a career best 40 home runs. Prior to the second half hot streak, he had suffered through a season and a half lost to injuries and below average production. Gonzalez has two years and $34MM remaining on his contract. Blackmon, by comparison, is projected to earn just $4.5MM in his first of three arbitration seasons. The 29-year-old is coming off a solid 2.1 WAR season (.287/.347/.450 slash).
- The club has remained in touch with free agent Denard Span too, tweets Ladson. Rizzo wants to confirm Span is healthy before making a commitment. Span’s agent, Scott Boras, is said to expect a multi-year contract.
- As for the bullpen, the Nationals have ended their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman, per Ladson (on Twitter). It goes without saying at this point, but the Reds will have to wait for the league to rule on Chapman’s future before they can re-market him. In my opinion, and in light of the criticism received by the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, and other NFL franchises related to domestic abuse cases, some MLB clubs may be out on Chapman at any price.
Mariners, Ed Lucas Agree To Minors Deal
The Mariners have agreed to terms with utilityman Ed Lucas on a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Lucas, 34 in May, spent the 2015 season with the Rangers Triple-A affiliate. He posted a robust .316/.389/.420 line over 442 plate appearances.
Lucas is capable of manning all four infield positions, and he even has some experience in the outfield. Rosenthal views Lucas as a possible platoon candidate with first baseman Adam Lind, although I see that as a stretch. Lucas’ best attribute is defensive versatility.
In 573 major league plate appearances, he’s just a .243/.294/.330 hitter. He does have a .330/.360/.469 line against left-handed pitching, but that’s in only 179 plate appearances. It’s also buoyed by a .374 BABIP.
Lucas joins Luis Sardinas and Chris Taylor as potential utility infielders for the Mariners. Both Sardinas and Taylor seemingly have the inside track for a major league role due to youth and a place on the 40-man roster. As such, Lucas is likely to serve as depth at the Triple-A level.
Astros To Acquire Ken Giles
SATURDAY 12:06pm: The Phillies have announced the trade. However, several components have changed. The Phillies will receive Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz. Derek Fisher, who was originally rumored to be headed to Philadelphia, is not part of the trade. The Astros will also receive infielder Jonathan Arauz from the Phillies. Although both are Panamanian prospects, the Arauz’s are not related.
Appel, the number one pick in the 2013 draft, has experienced mixed success in the minors. The 24-year-old reached Triple-A and posted a 4.48 ERA with 8.03 K/9 and 3.69 BB/9. MLB.com ranked Appel as the Astro’s second best prospect between 2015 draft picks Alex Bregman and Daz Cameron. He’s also ranked 43rd overall. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent in the minors, ranging from the low-90s to 98 mph. He also throws a slider and a changeup.
Harold Arauz, 20, pitched in Low-A last season with a 5.75 ERA, 9.06 K/9, and 3.14 BB/9 in 51 innings. Per Baseball America’s Ben Badler, Arauz leans heavily on a low-90s cutter. Badler also commented on Jonathan Arauz. The newly acquired Astro was ranked the 20th best prospect in the Gulf Coast League. The 17-year-old middle infielder was also considered the best Panamanian prospect in the 2014 international market.
In a related move, the Phillies have designated reliever Dan Otero to make room for Velasquez and Oberholtzer on the 40-man roster, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
THURSDAY 12:13am: The final player in the deal will be righty Thomas Eshelman, who will head from the Astros to the Phillies, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweets. The 21-year-old Eshelman, a second-round pick this past June out of Cal State Fullerton, pitched just 10 1/3 innings in the Astros organization. Before the draft, MLB.com characterized him as a polished pitcher who could move through the minors quickly but might end up as a back-of-the-rotation type of starter. At the time of the trade, he ranked as the Astros’ 13th-best prospect.
WEDNESDAY 7:52pm: MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets that a fourth player is headed to the Phillies in the deal as well.
7:38pm: The Astros and Phillies are in agreement on a trade that will send right-hander Vincent Velasquez, lefty Brett Oberholtzer and another prospect to Philadelphia in exchange for young closer Ken Giles, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (Twitter link). Outfielder Derek Fisher will also head to Philadelphia in the deal, Berman clarifies (on Twitter). The trade is pending medical reviews. CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury first broke news that the two sides were nearing an agreement, and he added details along with ESPN’s Jayson Stark as they emerged.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’ll satisfy Houston GM Jeff Luhnow’s previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen had been missing.
By adding Giles, the Astros will deepen their bullpen considerably. Luke Gregerson, who performed well as the club’s primary closer in 2015, will return to the setup capacity in which he thrived for much of his career. He’ll be joined there by side-arming Pat Neshek, the quietly excellent Will Harris and Josh Fields in 2016. Houston will still need to address its dearth of left-handed relief options, however, as its two primary southpaws — Tony Sipp and Oliver Perez — both departed as free agents. Perez has since signed with the Nationals, though a reunion with Sipp remains a possibility, as he’s still a free agent and there has reportedly been mutual interest between the parties.
Houston will control Giles through at least the 2020 season if all goes well. With one year, 113 days of Major League service time, Giles will fall shy of Super Two designation and thus will not be arbitration eligible until the 2017-18 offseason. He’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in each of the next two seasons (barring an extension), providing Houston with financial flexibility to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
The centerpiece of the deal for the Astros is Velasquez — a 23-year-old righty who entered the 2015 season as a consensus Top 100 prospect and made his big league debut after performing exceptionally well at the Double-A level. Velasquez logged a 1.91 with a 45-to-13 K/BB ratio in 33 innings at Double-A in addition to posting a 4.37 ERA in 55 2/3 innings at the Major League level where he struck out 58 and walked 21. He’ll immediately be in the mix for a rotation spot with the Phillies, though it’s possible that Philadelphia may want to get Velasquez some time at Triple-A, where he has yet to throw so much as a single inning.
While Velasquez may need some additional development before slotting into the Phillies’ rotation on a full-time basis, Oberholtzer should be able to step into the starting five from day one. The 26-year-old has been up and down with the Astros over the past three seasons but has totaled 45 appearances (42 starts) and recorded a solid, if unspectacular 3.94 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 38.5 percent ground-ball rate. That ground-ball rate, though, isn’t fully representative of Oberholtzer’s new skill set, as he began using a cutter in 2015 that upped his rate to 48.8 percent in his sample of 34 2/3 big league innings. He’ll give the Phillies an option at the back of their rotation that can be controlled for up to five years — the same as Giles — if he’s able to consistently perform in the Majors.
Fisher, meanwhile, was the 37th overall pick in the 2014 Draft and rated as the No. 8 prospect in a deep Houston farm system, per MLB.com. The Virginia product, whom Baseball America ranked 13th among Houston farmhands entering the season, is said in their scouting report to be a toolsy outfielder with plus-plus raw power that has yet to fully manifest. He draws praise for his bat speed and above-average running, though BA noted that he has a below-average arm and has questionable route-running, so left field is probably his ultimate home.
Still just 21 years old, Fisher split the season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, hitting .275/.364/.483 with 22 homers and 31 stolen bases before going on to bat .254/.397/.424 in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s at least a full season away from the Majors and possibly two, but Fisher gives the Phillies a potential everyday outfielder down the line if he can keep hitting the way he did in 2015. MLB.com calls him a potential “impact hitter,” even if he isn’t believed to have a future as a strong defender.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Acquire Charlie Morton From Pirates
11:35am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan brings to light an “interesting wrinkle” in Morton’s contract (tweet). The trade triggered a clause that converts his $9.5MM 2017 team option into a mutual option. As Passan notes, Morton is now very likely to hit the free agent market after the season.
9:39am: The Phillies have acquired right-handed starting pitcher Charlie Morton from the Pirates, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal on Twitter. The Pirates will pick up right-handed pitcher David Whitehead in the swap. The Phillies will pick up the tab for Morton. He is signed for $8MM in 2016 with a $9.5MM club option for 2017 ($1MM buyout). In a related move, the Phillies designated pitcher A.J. Achter to make room on the 40-man roster, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (tweet).
Morton, 32, is a veteran of eight major league seasons. He has a career 4.54 ERA with 6.28 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, and a 55 percent ground ball rate. Phillies fans will find his delivery uncannily familiar – Morton almost perfectly mimics the throwing motion of former Phillies star Roy Halladay.
The ground ball specialist has struggled with health in recent seasons, but he’s been modestly effective when on the field. Although he posted a 4.81 ERA in 129 innings last season, ERA estimators like xFIP (3.87) and SIERA (3.89) were more positive. While Morton had a rocky start to his early career, he’s actually projected to contribute a sub-4.00 ERA in 2016.
Morton joins a suddenly deep Phillies rotation that includes Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Jeremy Hellickson, Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, and Matt Harrison. It’s unclear what, if any, role Harrison can fill. Even if Harrison spends the season on the disabled list, the club seems prepared to avoid forcing an unready pitcher like David Buchanan or Alec Asher from making regular starts.
In Whitehead, the Pirates acquired a former 34th round pick from the 2013 draft. Last season at High-A, Whitehead pitched to a 4.44 ERA with 6.24 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 25 starts. Scouting reports describe him as a ground ball pitcher with a low-90’s sinker. He may have a back-of-the-rotation ceiling.
For Pittsburgh, this deal was mostly about escaping the $9MM guaranteed to Morton over the next two seasons. After dealing Neil Walker last week, the club has the necessary resources to pursue a starting pitcher in free agency. The Pirates are often tied to inexpensive reclamation projects like Justin Masterson or Mat Latos.
The swap necessitated the Phillies to make a 40-man roster move. Achter drew the short straw. The right-handed reliever was acquired off waivers from the Twins earlier in the offseason. The 27-year-old has a 90 mph fastball. He’s posted strong numbers are Triple-A but has yet to succeed at the major league level.
Mariners Acquire Ryne Harper To Complete Jose Ramirez Trade
The Mariners have announced the acquisition of right-handed pitcher Ryne Harper from the Braves. He is the player to be named later in last week’s Jose Ramirez trade. Ramirez was dealt in part to make room on the 40-man and active rosters since he is out of options.
In Harper, Seattle acquires a 26-year-old reliever who has spent a large chunk of his professional career at Double-A. Over the last three seasons with the Braves’ Double-A affiliate, he’s posted a 2.17 ERA, with 10.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 165 innings. His most recent campaign included similar numbers. Scouting reports describe him as a fastball-slider reliever with a 92 mph fastball.