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Mets Sign Oliver Ortega To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 2:10pm CDT

The Mets have signed right-hander Oliver Ortega to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to New York’s big league spring camp, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (X link). Ortega was outrighted off the Astros’ 40-man roster in November, and since it wasn’t his first career outright, he chose to enter free agency.

The 28-year-old Ortega made his Major League debut in 2021, and he has a 4.03 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate over 58 career relief innings with the Angels and Twins. After Houston claimed him off waivers from the Twins in October 2023, Ortega’s tenure as an Astro came and went without a single game played in either the majors or minors. A pair of surgeries cost Ortega the entire 2024 season, as an initial procedure in Spring Training to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow didn’t take, and he needed another surgery in late June to remove a bone spur from that same right elbow.

While a minor league deal doesn’t represent a huge commitment, the Mets seem satisfied enough with Ortega’s health situation to at least give him a look during Spring Training. Ortega’s career Triple-A numbers include a 3.61 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.42% walk rate over 72 1/3 innings, so he might be able to tap into that potential if he can improve his control against big league hitters.

Report: Diamondbacks Explored Montgomery/Bellinger Trade With Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 12:43pm CDT

There has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger this offseason, as both players have outsized salaries and are somewhat imperfect roster fits on their respective clubs. These same issues have seemingly led to a rather quiet trade market for either player to date, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Arizona “tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap” involving the two players. It isn’t known if the proposed deal was a straight one-for-one trade or if other players were involved, though it could be a moot point since the Cubs apparently didn’t have much interest.

Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary. This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.

Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season. Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs. Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.

D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere. If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.

A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.” Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score. It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.

From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs. Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base. While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders. Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.

The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation. Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department. Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.

Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason. It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.

The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto. Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.

While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year. After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter. That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.

Pirates Sign Tanner Rainey, Hunter Stratton To Minor League Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 11:14am CDT

The Pirates have signed right-handers Tanner Rainey and Hunter Stratton to minors deals, as respectively reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (X link) and Stratton’s MLB.com profile page. Rainey’s contract contains an invitation to the Pirates’ big league spring camp, and it can be assumed that Stratton’s deal also has an invite, though Stratton’s uncertain health situation in the wake of knee surgery could limit his participation in Spring Training.

Rainey heads to Pittsburgh after a topsy-turvy six-year run with the Nationals, highlighted by a World Series ring in his first year with the club. Rainey delivered a 3.91 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 relief innings for that 2019 championship team, but also had an ugly 17.8% walk rate. These control issues plagued Rainey for most of his time in Washington, and he also missed virtually all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

After Rainey posted a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate over 51 innings in 2024, the Nationals unsurprisingly decided to non-tender the righty, even though Rainey was projected for a modest $1.9MM arbitration salary. Now entering his age-32 season, Rainey will look to rebuild himself in the Bucs’ spring camp, and hopefully regain some of the form and velocity that made him a valuable bullpen asset for the Nats in 2020 and 2022.

Stratton was also non-tendered by the Pirates in November, but there was an expectation that Pittsburgh would (just as they did last offseason) re-sign the righty to a new minor league deal. Stratton has an impressive 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate across 49 2/3 career Major League innings, all with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons. Despite a lack of big strikeout totals, Stratton’s ability to induce soft contact has made him an interesting relief option out of the Pirates’ bullpen.

Unfortunately for Stratton, his 2024 season was cut short by a flukish injury on August 24 that left him with a ruptured patellar tendon. Stratton was behind home plate at PNC Park and pursuing a loose ball when he stumbled into the stone wall, causing the injury and putting his career on hold for an estimated 7-10 months. This fluid timeline means that Stratton would return anywhere from Opening Day to late June, but the minor league contract gives him plenty of time to fully get himself right during Spring Training or in the Pirates’ farm system.

Tigers Interested In Ha-Seong Kim

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 10:38am CDT

The Tigers have shown interest in infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as related by the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in a recent appearance on the Days Of Roar podcast. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Kim’s former team the Padres have all been publicly connected to Kim this offseason, though it is fair to guess that San Francisco may be out of the running after signing Willy Adames.

As recently noted by Anthony Franco in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Kim is one of the trickiest players to evaluate within the 2024-25 free agent class, owing to the shoulder surgery that Kim underwent in late September. Kim will miss some time at the start of the 2025 season, though the exact timeline is up in the air — agent Scott Boras said a late-April return is possible, while Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in October said Kim might not be ready until “May, June, July.” It should be noted that Preller was speaking broadly on the topic rather than giving any sort of definitive timeline, yet even raising the possibility of a three-month range adds to the uncertainty over Kim’s health.

Some teams have still floated the idea of signing Kim to a multi-year contract, though the exact nature of such offers aren’t clear. It would be risky to offer Kim something like four or five guaranteed years, but a two-year contract (likely with a player opt-out after 2025) seems entirely plausible. Kim and agent Scott Boras might also seek out a flat one-year deal with the same idea of Kim getting to quickly re-enter the market next winter, ostensibly on the heels of a healthier and productive platform year. MLBTR’s projection of a one-year, $12MM contract for Kim supports this strategy, though Boras is no stranger to creative deals that provide his clients with plenty of flexibility.

A shorter-term contract might have more appeal to the Tigers, who are reportedly seeking out such deals in regards to starting pitchers. Now that Detroit is coming off a wild card berth and an ALDS appearance, the expectation has been that ownership and president of baseball operations Scott Harris will be somewhat more aggressive in upgrading on seems like a winning core, though the Tigers’ offseason has been pretty quiet to date, albeit with some rumors of interest in Jack Flaherty or Alex Bregman.

From a pure baseball perspective, a healthy Kim would be an ideal fit for the Tigers in many ways. As Petzold notes, Kim’s speed and high-contact/low-strikeout approach greatly helps a Tigers team that finished near the bottom of the league in OBP and stolen bases, plus Kim’s right-handed bat adds balance to Detroit’s lefty-heavy lineup. Kim is also a strong defensive player at multiple infield positions, so he could address the team’s needs at either third base or shortstop.

Javier Baez is still technically the incumbent starting shortstop, but his stock is at an all-time low after three increasingly poor seasons in Detroit and a hip surgery that ended his 2024 campaign in August. Baez is still owed $73MM through the 2027 season, and since the Tigers would just be eating the money anyway in releasing him, the team might as well give Baez another chance at the start of the season to see if his surgery has perhaps corrected any of the health issues that led to his dropoff in production.

Trey Sweeney stepped into the shortstop role after Baez’s season ended prematurely, and Sweeney played well enough to put himself into the conversation for more regular playing time as well. If the Tigers signed Kim, Detroit could just stick with Baez and Sweeney at shortstop until Kim is ready to play, and then evaluate whether Kim could just take over at shortstop, or perhaps play third base if Baez or Sweeney are having productive seasons.

AL East Notes: O’Neill, Grichuk, Holmes, Rays

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 9:46am CDT

At the end of last season, both Tyler O’Neill and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow expressed interest in the possibility of O’Neill returning to Boston on a new contract. That possibility is now officially off the board after O’Neill signed a three-year, $49.5MM deal with the Orioles yesterday, and as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (Bluesky link), the Sox “were not very aggressive” in their attempts to re-sign the outfielder. Boston’s pursuit of Juan Soto simply took precedence, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, as since the Red Sox are one of the teams still waiting on Soto to make his decision, the Sox didn’t make O’Neill any offers.

Mets Interested In Eovaldi, Manaea, Pivetta, Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 9:03am CDT

The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents. Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics. New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.

Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.

Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal. Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers. MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.

Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series. The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons. The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.

Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit. The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February). However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.

MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract. It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23. This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.

Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander. There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency. Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.

The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits. Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services. Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher. This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent. Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings. This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent). Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.

Yankees Interested In Thairo Estrada

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 8:04am CDT

The Yankees are interested in signing Thairo Estrada, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (X link). New York is now the second team known to be in on Estrada’s market, as the Rockies were also linked to the veteran earlier this week.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Estrada was an international signing for the Yankees back in 2012 and he appeared in 61 games for New York during his first two Major League seasons (2019-20). It wasn’t until after the Yankees traded Estrada to the Giants in April 2021 that the infielder broke out as a productive big leaguer, hitting .266/.320/.416 over 1203 plate appearances for San Francisco during the 2021-23 seasons.

Estrada’s performance dropped off badly last season, however, and the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of August after Estrada batted only .217/.247/.343 in 381 PA. Wrist problems plagued Estrada for much of the summer, further hampering an offensive approach that has never led to much hard contact. Estrada has also been limited in his capacity to get on base, and his 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was the second-lowest of any player in baseball with at least 350 PA.

In the wake of this down year, Estrada surely isn’t being viewed as a starting candidate in the Bronx, though his versatility makes him an interesting candidate for a part-time or bench role. The large majority of Estrada’s MLB playing time has come at second base, but he has seen a decent amount of time as a shortstop while also chipping in as a third baseman and corner outfielder. Estrada’s career splits are pretty even, yet on paper, his right-handed bat could complement the left-handed hitting Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is expected to hold down the starting role at either second or third base.

Chisholm and shortstop Anthony Volpe have two of the starting infield jobs spoken for, and Chisholm’s versatility gives New York some flexibility in deciding how to address second or third base. Conceivably, the Yankees could add Estrada to their in-house collection of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza and let that whole group serve as something of a rotating bench/platoon mix while rotating Chisholm between the keystone and the hot corner. Or, the Bronx Bombers could go bigger with more of an everyday infield option, though those endeavors are probably on hold until the Yankees learn whether or not Juan Soto will be returning to the team.

Red Sox Reportedly “Open” To Triston Casas Trade

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2024 at 10:41pm CDT

The Red Sox have made plain that their top priority this winter (except, perhaps, for their pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto) is improving their starting rotation. That’s led the club to be connected to a number of top free agent and trade candidates throughout the winter so far, ranging from Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in free agency to Garrett Crochet via the trade market. Earlier this winter, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated that the club had no interest in parting with young first baseman Triston Casas in trade this winter, praising him as a player with “40-home run potential” who he described himself as “excited” to have on the team.

While that infatuation with Casas’s skill set may be true, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported earlier today that the Red Sox have been “open” to including Casas in a trade that achieves their goal of adding a pitcher to the front of their rotation. What’s more, Speier goes on to report that one executive from a rival AL club noted that he Red Sox had offered Casas as the headliner in a package for one of his team’s pitchers. That openness to dealing Casas comes as something of a surprise given Breslow’s public comments last month but Speier cautions that while the club is “exploring all avenues” to improve this winter, including the possibility of a Casas trade, the Red Sox actually dealing the youngster remains unlikely given that they’d likely be selling low after a season where he appeared in just 63 games due to torn cartilage in his ribcage.

When healthy enough to take the field, Casas hit quite well for the Red Sox this year with a .241/.337/.462 slash line (119 wRC+) and 13 homers in 243 trips to the plate. With that being said, there were some red flags in his profile this year that may give interested clubs pause. Notably, he struck out at an elevated 31.7% clip this year that helped hold him back from reaching the incredible heights he flashed after the All-Star break in 2023, when he crushed the ball to the tune of a .317/.417/.617 slash line in a 211 plate appearance sample that nearly matches his shortened 2024 campaign. Given that tantalizing upside, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Red Sox would be hesitant to part with Casas following an injury-plagued season that raised questions about his strikeout rate.

To that end, deals involving Casas are far from the only type of trade the Red Sox have explored this winter. Speier notes that Boston has looked into trades with various clubs that come in several forms, with Casas, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and some of the club’s top prospects all being potential headliners for various deals the club has discussed this winter. Speier suggests that both top outfield prospect Roman Anthony and top second base prospect Kristian Campbell are considered “entirely off-limits” in trade talks, but that still leaves a number of exciting prospects in the Red Sox farm available in the right trade, potentially even including catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Marcelo Mayer.

The club has also, of course, explored free agency as they look for rotation upgrades. The club has been connected to top pitchers like Burnes and Fried throughout the winter, but they’ve also seemingly been involved at lower tiers of the pitching market as well in their search for arms. Robert Murray of FanSided reported yesterday that the Red Sox made a “serious push” for Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber before he re-signed in Cleveland, and Bieber reportedly turned down more money from other clubs in order to return to the only organization he’s known as a professional. Additionally, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported earlier today that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. Holmes landed in Queens as a starting pitcher after spending the majority of his big league career as a reliever, but Rosenthal and Sammon emphasized that it’s not clear whether Boston was among the clubs interested in Holmes as a starter or if they intended to use him out of the bullpen had they ultimately signed him.

That interest in Bieber (and Holmes, if they planned to put him in the rotation) suggests that the Red Sox could be willing to get creative to add pitching talent to their rotation, even as they appear focused on adding a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm. The Red Sox rotation certainly has room for multiple starters given that Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford seem to be the only hurlers locked into rotation spots next year, and pairing an ace-level pitcher like Burnes, Fried, or Crochet with an intriguing bounce-back option would be a good way for the club to raise the ceiling in their rotation substantially without needing to land two top-of-the-market pitchers. Max Scherzer and Tomoyuki Sugano are among the interesting one-year veteran options this winter who could have substantial upside, while Jeff Hoffman stands out as a reliever who has received interest as a starter this offseason.

Orioles Reportedly “Reluctant” To Pursue QO Starters From Other Clubs

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2024 at 8:33pm CDT

The Orioles made their first major splash on the free agent market this evening when they agreed with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal. That signing addressed their desire to add a right-handed bat to the lineup following the departure of switch-hitting free agent Anthony Santander, who was their best hitter in the outfield against left-handed pitching. The club’s biggest need of the winter remains unaddressed, however: a top-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void left by Corbin Burnes when he elected free agency last month.

While the club has previously been connected to top-of-the-market hurlers including former Braves southpaw Max Fried, a report this afternoon from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed some light on the club’s strategy for this winter’s pitching market by noting that the club is “reluctant” to pursue qualified free agent pitchers from other clubs. That stance would seemingly exclude them from not only the Fried sweepstakes but also the market for Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom they were previously connected to this winter.

There’s still a number of interesting free agent starters available this winter who don’t fit that description, led by a reunion with Burnes. Re-signing Burnes wouldn’t cause the Orioles to lose a draft pick beyond the opportunity cost of not receiving the pick after the first round they’d be in line to receive should he land elsewhere, but Rosenthal and Sammon suggested the chances of Burnes returning to Baltimore seem “remote” at this point given the possibility that the winter’s #2 free agent becomes the center of attention for Juan Soto bidders who fail to land the superstar slugger. For the Orioles’ part, GM Mike Elias made clear during an appearance on MLB Network Radio last month that the club would “love” to bring Burnes back into the fold for 2025 and beyond.

Should they find themselves outbid for Burnes, however, he’s far from the only viable option to improve the club’s rotation without forfeiting a draft pick. Rosenthal and Sammon describe both veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and righty Jack Flaherty as more appealing to the Orioles than a pursuit of Fried, Manaea, or Pivetta. Of the two, they report that the Orioles appear to prefer Eovaldi after Flaherty’s disastrous run with Baltimore following the trade deadline back in 2023, where he surrendered a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work before turning things around with the Tigers and Dodgers this past year with a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 28 starts.

Eovaldi also figures to be much cheaper than Flaherty this winter; on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $41MM contract for the veteran while predicting Flaherty would land $115MM over five years. Rosenthal and Sammon also suggest that Flaherty figures to land a contract in the four- to six-year range this winter, and while they don’t comment on Eovaldi’s expected contract it’s worth noting that deals of that length for a pitcher entering their age-35 season as Eovaldi is are all but unheard of in today’s game, with Jacob deGrom standing out as the notable exception to that rule. Eovaldi’s platform season saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 29 starts that don’t quite match up to Flaherty’s performance, though the veteran does offer a lengthy track record of mid-rotation success that compares favorably to Flaherty’s up-and-down career in terms of on-field results over the past half decade.

It also seems at least plausible that the Orioles could look to get creative as they search for rotation upgrades. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Baltimore was among the clubs that had interest in right-hander Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. While Holmes has been a reliever for the majority of his MLB career, the Mets signed him to pitch in their rotation and Rosenthal and Sammon indicated that Baltimore would’ve done the same had they landed him, though some of his other suitors planned to keep him in the relief role in which he turned in a dominant three-and-a-half year stretch with the Yankees. While it’s currently unclear if the club would consider any other free agent relief arms for a move to the rotation, both Michael Soroka and Jeff Hoffman have received buzz as potential starting pitching options this winter after successful runs in relief in 2024.

Yankees, Mets Reportedly Increase Soto Bids Beyond $700MM

By Nick Deeds | December 7, 2024 at 8:02pm CDT

After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.

The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani’s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.

Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez’s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.

Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.

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