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The Opener: Yamamoto Debut, Free Agents, Giants

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As MLB Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Yamamoto to make stateside debut:

For the second day in a row, a newly-signed Dodgers superstar will make his first in-game appearance for the club this spring. Yesterday, Shohei Ohtani stepped up to the plate for the first time in a Dodgers uniform and crushed a home run later on in the game. Today, L.A. fans will hope to be similarly dazzled by right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher back in December despite not having pitched in the majors previously. The 25-year-old pitched to a sterling 1.24 ERA in 23 starts for NPB’s Orix Buffaloes last season, his fourth season in the last five years where he posted a sub-2.00 ERA. In his first stateside matchup, Yamamoto will take on left-hander Cody Bradford and the reigning World Series champion Rangers at 2:05pm CT.

2. Could Snell or Chapman be the next marquee free agent to sign?

The quartet of top free agents attempting to wait out the market for a better contract shrunk to three over the weekend when Cody Bellinger and the Cubs reunited on an opt-out laden three-year deal. Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman all continue to linger in free agency with March just around the corner.

Snell has been most frequently connected to the Yankees throughout the winter, and reporting yesterday indicated that the sides have continued to discuss scenarios this week, even as a deal remains an extreme long shot. As of last night, the Giants are reportedly still in the mix for both Snell and Chapman, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle citing one source in saying there’s about a 50% chance the team lands one of the two. With spring training in full swing and Opening Day just one month away, the waiting game could finally draw to a close sooner than later.

3. Are the Giants down a starter?

One factor that might be impacting the Giants’ pursuit of Snell is the health of right-hander Tristan Beck, who left camp yesterday to undergo testing on his right-hand back in San Francisco. Beck, 27, pitched to a solid 3.92 ERA and 4.00 FIP with the club last year, though only three of his 33 appearances in the big leagues came as a starter. Despite that limited starting experience, Beck appeared slated to enter his sophomore season as the club’s fifth starter behind Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, and Keaton Winn.

With Sean Hjelle and Ethan Small among the next best options for the rotation should Beck miss time, an injury of any note could push San Francisco to attempt to add a starter before Opening Day. While there’s an obvious potential connection between Beck’s health and the Giants’ reported interest in Snell, the club wouldn’t necessarily have to turn to the top of the free agent market to replace or even improve upon Beck’s expected production. After all, other quality arms remain available on the open market such as right-handers Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen, the latter of whom MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored plausible fits for just yesterday.

Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen

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In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a group of high-profile free agents still available this offseason. They’re all represented by the same agency. A few people have pointed this out. There were four of them, and with Cody Bellinger’s new deal with the Cubs, there are now three. (Although J.D. Martinez still could be included to make it a quartet.) It’s garnered some mild attention around the baseball world.

So much focus has been placed on the “Boras Four” — and not just for the cringe nickname — that it’s overshadowed the fact that the free agent market still has a handful of good, quality big leaguers who can help teams. None rejected a qualifying offer. None are looking for nine-figure deals. None will require a team to commit money into the 2028 season or beyond.

Arguably most prominent among the remaining “second tier” of the free agent market at this juncture of the offseason is right-hander Michael Lorenzen. The 32-year-old righty is fresh off a career-high 153 innings in what was only his second full season as a starter after a six-year run in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Lorenzen isn’t an ace, but he started 25 games last year (plus four relief appearances) and made the All-Star team after a strong first half of the season with the Tigers. Part of his selection to the Midsummer Classic was by default — every team needs an All-Star representative, and the Tigers didn’t have many candidates — but that shouldn’t be used to downplay the strength of Lorenzen’s first few months of the season.

Heading into the All-Star Game, Lorenzen was sporting a solid but unspectacular 4.03 ERA in 87 innings. He’d started 15 games, fanned 19% of his opponents and issued walks at a tidy 5.7% clip. On a one-year, $8.5MM contract, he was providing fine value. Lorenzen pitched two-third of an inning in the All-Star Game, and then came roaring out of the second-half gates in what wound up being his best stretch of the season. The right-hander finished his first half with five shutout frames and began the second half with another 13 2/3 scoreless innings. By the time the Phillies traded for him in the run-up to the annual trade deadline, Lorenzen was sitting on a 3.58 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings.

By now, most fans and readers are familiar with Lorenzen’s first outings as a Phillie. He held the Marlins to a pair of runs through eight excellent innings in his team debut before blanking the Nationals in a 124-pitch no-hitter during his first appearance pitching in front of Philly fans at Citizens Bank Park. That pair of gems dropped his season ERA all the way to 3.23. From July 6 through Aug. 9, Lorenzen pitched 40 2/3 innings with a 1.11 ERA and 31-to-12 K/BB ratio.

And, just as most readers were likely already aware of those heights, the subsequent lows for Lorenzen have also been well-documented. In his followup to that no-hit gem, Lorenzen was rocked for six runs by that same Nationals offense, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. That commenced a calamitous stretch where he was torched for 27 runs over his next 26 1/3 innings. The Phillies were always likely to move Lorenzen to the bullpen for the postseason, given his experience in the role and the strength of the top of their staff, but they took that step several weeks early.

Lorenzen finished out the year with four shutout innings of relief across three appearances, but that did little to repair the damage of his disastrous late-August meltdown. He finished the season with a 4.18 ERA (4.46 FIP, 4.87 SIERA), 17.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, 41% grounder rate and 1.18 HR/9 — solid production for a fourth starter but nowhere near as enticing as his numbers looked with just six weeks to go in the season.

It’s worth wondering the extent to which Lorenzen simply wore down. He pitched only 110 1/3 innings the year prior between the big leagues and a minor league rehab stint with the Angels. He didn’t pitch more than 85 innings in a season from 2016-21. Ramping up to more than 150 frames on the year meant pushing his body to levels it hadn’t reached since his age-23 season back in 2015 — his rookie MLB campaign and final season as a starter before the Reds moved him to relief.

Despite the shaky finish, Lorenzen wound up with solid numbers on the season for a second straight year. He’s yet to make a full slate of 30+ starts in a season, but it’s not unreasonable to think he could do so in 2024-25 after building up to 153 innings in 2023. And dating back to his return to a rotation in 2022, he’s pitched 250 2/3 innings of 4.20 ERA ball with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 44.5% ground-ball rate. Lorenzen has averaged 94.6 mph on his heater, induced chases off the plate at a nice 32.6% clip and logged a 10.2% swinging-strike rate that’s not far below the 11.1% MLB average.

It’s not an ace profile by any means, but there are plenty of big league teams that are preparing to trot out an unproven and/or below-average arm in the fourth or fifth spot of their rotation. Plugging a roughly league-average starter into one of those spots makes sense for a number of clubs, and Lorenzen shouldn’t break the bank. He’s signed one-year deals for $6.75MM and $8.5MM over the past two seasons. A relatively modest two-year deal or even a one-year deal at a bump over last year’s salary doesn’t seem unreasonable.

For teams seeking rotation help but unwilling/unable to spend at the necessary levels to sign Snell or Montgomery, a short-term deal with Lorenzen could make sense. That’s not true of every team, however. Let’s take a run through the league and look for some potential fits.

Teams with generally full rotations

Each of the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Guardians, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Royals and Tigers have a largely set rotation featuring five veterans and/or young starters who are locked into jobs and unlikely to be displaced by Lorenzen.

Kansas City and Detroit might be stretches to land in this group, but for the Royals, signing Lorenzen would mean pushing Jordan Lyles and his $8.5MM salary to the bullpen or cutting him loose. Based on 2023 performances, they’d be better for it, but that’s a lot of money for the Royals to eat. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one rotation spot up for grabs after signing Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda this winter. They’d presumably like to leave that open for Matt Manning, Casey Mize and any other young arms to try to seize.

Top luxury payors who’d effectively owe double

Each of the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets are third-time luxury tax payors who’d be taxed at a 110% rate for any additional free agent signings. Even adding Lorenzen on a modest one-year, $9MM deal would mean taking on $9.9MM of taxes and put the total cost of signing at $18.9MM. The Mets recently saw Kodai Senga go down with a shoulder injury, but shelling out nearly $19MM for one year of Lorenzen doesn’t seem like a plausible outcome.

Rebuilding/non-competitive teams

The A’s, White Sox and Nationals are all at various stages of a rebuilding effort. Any of the three could have been a fit for Lorenzen earlier this offseason, but none seem likely now. The A’s signed Alex Wood and traded for Ross Stripling, giving them four set starters and a deep stock of unproven arms to vie for the fifth spot. The White Sox signed Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen in addition to acquiring Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster. They also didn’t trade Dylan Cease. Lorenzen might be an upgrade, but it seems like they’ve added what they’re going to add. The Nationals haven’t done anything to bolster a sub-par rotation beyond signing Zach Davies to a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has effectively declared his team out of the market for additional big league arms.

I’d argue that another non-competitive club, the Rockies, should absolutely be interested in signing Lorenzen, given the dearth of quality innings among their group of incumbents. But Colorado has shown minimal interest in spending this offseason, and convincing any pitcher to take a short-term deal at Coors Field is a tall order.

Payroll and/or luxury tax issues

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ re-signing of Bellinger put them around $3MM shy of the base luxury tax threshold. They wouldn’t face a major penalty for signing Lorenzen — likely just a couple million dollars or so — but they have four locked-in starters and a deep collection of arms vying for the fifth spot (e.g. Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, Javier Assad) with top prospect Cade Horton not far behind. They’re not a great fit.
  • Rangers: Despite last year’s World Series win, Texas has had an unexpectedly quiet offseason amid uncertainty regarding the team’s television broadcast outlook. The Rangers could clearly use another arm with each of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle opening the season on the injured list. The team seems content to ride with an in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford while waiting on that veteran trio to return, though. GM Chris Young said earlier this month that he doesn’t foresee any further additions of note.
  • Rays: The Rays should be shopping in this tier for rotation help, given that they’re relying on a pair of injury-prone veterans (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), a converted reliever (Zack Littell) and a pair of talented but unproven prospects (Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley) to open the season. Shane Baz, once the game’s top pitching prospect, will be back from 2022 Tommy John surgery but on an innings limit. Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) will be back at some point in 2024 but perhaps not until the season’s second half. Getting to that point could be a challenge with the Rays’ current group, but Tampa Bay’s projected $99MM Opening Day payroll is (somehow) a franchise record as it is. There’s room to sign Lorenzen for two years on a backloaded deal (particularly if the Rays eventually trade Harold Ramirez and his $3.8MM salary), but their current financial outlay makes them a reach — even if there’s a clear need in the rotation.
  • Twins: The Twins have shown interest in Lorenzen but, like the Rangers, have scaled back their spending amid TV revenue concerns. After acquiring Manuel Margot yesterday, president of baseball ops Derek Falvey suggested he’s likely finished adding to the big league roster. The Twins have a decent starting mix with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani and Louie Varland as it is. Signing Lorenzen would deepen the group, but an addition apparently isn’t viewed as an imperative so long as the current group remains healthy in camp.

Plausible fits

  • Angels: Perhaps their attitude toward Lorenzen is “been there, done that,” but the Halos have plenty of uncertainty with a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, rebound hopeful Tyler Anderson and the inexperienced Chase Silseth. They took a shot on Zach Plesac, but he has minor league options remaining. Jose Suarez is another option, but he’s also in need of a rebound. If owner Arte Moreno wants to continue his resistance to long-term deals for pitchers, the Angels could bring Lorenzen back without coming close to their franchise-record for payroll or to the luxury tax threshold.
  • Brewers: Gone are the days of the Brewers’ nearly unrivaled rotation depth. Freddy Peralta is back to lead a staff that also features a re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea. Newcomers Jakob Junis and DL Hall — acquired in the surprise late-offseason trade of Corbin Burnes — round things out. Lefty Aaron Ashby will vie for a spot, and prospect Robert Gasser isn’t far from the big leagues himself. But the Brewers lack some certainty in the rotation and project for a $109MM Opening Day payroll that’s modest even by their standards.
  • D-backs: Arizona already signed Eduardo Rodriguez to join Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt in the rotation. Between Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi, Tommy Henry and Corbin Martin, they have some depth for the fifth slot, but none of it is proven. The Snakes’ $143MM payroll will already be a franchise record by about $11MM, but if there’s room for one more addition, Lorenzen would solidify the final rotation spot on a win-now club that’s looking to follow up on last year’s surprise World Series bid.
  • Giants: The Giants’ rotation looked like a mess even before injury scares to presumptive fourth and fifth starters Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck. San Francisco is reportedly still in the mix to sign Blake Snell, so there’s clearly money left to spend. Right now, they’ll follow ace Logan Webb with top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, Winn and Beck — if the latter two are healthy. (Winn recently resumed throwing after experiencing nerve discomfort in his elbow; Beck left camp to be evaluated for a hand injury.) Frankly, they could stand to add one of Snell/Montgomery and Lorenzen.
  • Orioles: The acquisition of Burnes quelled some anxiety from O’s fans after an otherwise silent offseason on the starting pitching front, but there’s now concern elsewhere in the rotation, as No. 2 starter Kyle Bradish is trying to rehab a UCL strain in his pitching elbow. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to avoid going under the knife after a UCL injury, but the overwhelming majority of such injury scares end in surgery. Meanwhile, John Means is behind schedule and likely to open the season on the injured list due to his own elbow troubles. Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley create some depth on the 40-man, but the Orioles are much deeper in high-end position player prospects than in pitchers. Baltimore has just $1MM on the 2025 books and is projected for a mere $96MM payroll. They should absolutely be looking for an addition of some sort, and they reportedly showed interest in Lorenzen before acquiring Burnes.
  • Padres: Another team that’s reportedly shown interest in Lorenzen, the Padres have cut payroll significantly and are now more than $20MM from the luxury threshold and nearly $100MM shy of their 2023 payroll. They only have two clear-cut, proven starters: Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Michael King, acquired in the Juan Soto trade, will fill the third spot in the rotation after a strong showing with the Yankees in 2023, but he’s never started more than nine games in a big league season. The other two spots are entirely up for grabs among a group of largely untested arms. There might not be a clearer on-paper fit, although…
  • Pirates: …if there is one, it might be in Pittsburgh. The Bucs will roll with recently extended Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the top spots of their rotation. Johan Oviedo had Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Paul Skenes, should quickly ascend to the big leagues but that probably won’t happen until this summer. Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf, Kyle Nicolas, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are all on the 40-man, but either lack MLB success or are (in the case of Falter and Contreras) are looking to put an ugly 2023 behind them. The Pirates have been talking to the Marlins about Edward Cabrera and other starters, and GM Ben Cherington has been open about his desire to further add to the rotation.
  • Red Sox: Not to be outdone in their need for rotation help amid a shaky collection of starters, Boston has been in a staring contest with Montgomery all winter. If he signs elsewhere or they deem the price too high, Lorenzen could easily fit into the budget of a team that’s nearly $60MM from its franchise record and not close to the luxury tax. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are set, but the combination of Nick Pivetta (who lost his rotation spot for a time in ’23), Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock lacks reliability. The Sox need quality innings, but ownership clearly put its foot in its mouth earlier this offseason with a “full-throttle” proclamation that has been followed up with payroll reduction and modest additions on the margins of the roster.

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If payroll weren’t an object, the Rays would join the Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, Giants and Orioles as the clearest fits for a solid, if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation arm like Lorenzen. Finances very likely are an issue for Tampa Bay, however, but any of those five other clubs — arguably in that order — should be able to find room to raise their rotation’s floor by plugging Lorenzen in at a price that won’t break the bank.

Orioles, Julio Teheran Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles are in agreement with righty Julio Teherán on a minor league contract with an invite to big league camp, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The deal comes with a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster for the Mato Sports Management client.

Teherán can battle for a rotation or long relief job with Baltimore. The 33-year-old started 11 of 14 big league outings with the Brewers a year ago. He allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine across 71 2/3 innings. Teherán showed excellent control, keeping his walks under the 5% threshold. He doesn’t miss many bats, though, running a modest 17.4% strikeout percentage behind an 8.9% swinging strike rate.

That was Teherán’s 12th big league campaign. The two-time All-Star has bounced between a few clubs since leaving the Braves after the 2019 season. He was blitzed for a 10.05 ERA with the Angels in 2020. Injuries kept him to one start for Detroit the next year and he was out of affiliated ball two seasons ago.

Teherán doesn’t throw particularly hard at this stage of his career. His fastball has steadily dipped over his major league run. He averaged an even 90 MPH with his sinker a year ago. While opponents teed off on that pitch, Teherán found a bit more success with his secondary offerings.

Baltimore has some questions at the back of the starting staff. With Kyle Bradish and John Means opening the season on the injured list, the O’s are down to Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as rotation locks. Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells appear the frontrunners for the last two spots. Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley are each on the 40-man roster as depth options.

Orioles Notes: Ownership, Santander, Tate

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The Orioles ownership change could be made official in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote yesterday that MLB is likely to formally approve the sale of the O’s to David Rubenstein by April. According to Drellich, there’s a small chance the deal could be completed before Opening Day.

Rubenstein agreed to purchase the franchise from the Angelos family in late January for $1.725 billion. He’ll assume control of 40% of the organization initially and will reportedly take on the majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos. The agreement still needs to be approved by MLB owners but that’s largely a formality.

Receiving that rubber stamp still marks a key moment for the franchise. The fanbase is hopeful that Rubenstein will authorize the kind of long-term investment from which the organization has shied away since John Angelos became control person. The O’s finally made their long-awaited consolidation trade for an ace to install Corbin Burnes at the front of the rotation. They haven’t pulled off an analogous strike on the free agent or extension fronts. Félix Bautista’s $1MM salary and a handful of option buyouts are the only contractual commitments beyond this year.

Burnes headlines their group of players who’ll hit free agency after the upcoming season. The former Cy Young winner has spoken about his desire to get to the open market. Anthony Santander is perhaps the second-most impactful of Baltimore’s possible free agents. He has spent his entire MLB career with the O’s after being selected in the 2016 Rule 5 draft. The switch-hitting outfielder indicated he’d be happy to stay off the market.

“I would love that,” Santander replied when asked about an extension (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). “That’s something that we always talk about outside of this room with my family and friends. I would love to stay here. We leave that business side to the front office. We’re just here to live in the moment right now, prepare ourselves.”

While Santander projects as one of the more effective hitters in the upcoming class, it’s possible the O’s don’t feel much urgency in extending him. Baltimore’s stockpile of young talent extends to the outfield. In addition to established starters Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays (both of whom are under control through 2025), the O’s have Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers as controllable outfielders who have reached the majors. They could count on someone from that group stepping into a regular role for ’25 and beyond.

Baltimore would be able to make Santander a qualifying offer in the absence of a long-term deal. It seems unlikely they’d want to offer a one-year salary that’d exceed $20MM, but Santander could play his way into legitimate QO consideration if he turns in another season like his 2023 campaign. He’s coming off an impressive .257/.325/.472 showing with 28 homers.

The O’s can delay that decision until next winter. Their more immediate focus is on defending last year’s AL East crown. Getting Dillon Tate back into high-leverage innings would be a nice boost towards those efforts. The former #4 overall pick turned in a 3.05 ERA over a career-high 73 2/3 frames back in 2022. He missed all of last season nursing a flexor strain but avoided surgery and is back in the bullpen mix this spring. Tate threw a perfect inning with a strikeout of Ryan Kreidler in today’s exhibition game against Detroit, his first game action of the year.

Blue Jays’ Erik Swanson Away From Team While Son Recovers From Accident

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Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson is taking time away from the team after his four year-old-son Toby was struck by a car, manager John Schneider announced this morning (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). The accident occurred on Sunday in the Clearwater area. Toby was airlifted to a local hospital.

Schneider said that Toby “is on the road to recovery” but understandably didn’t provide many specifics. Swanson will be away from the team to be with his family. “The guys have been great. Erik and his wife Madison are very thankful for the support. And we’re going to continue to give it as long as we need to,” Schneider told reporters. “Again, baseball is secondary when you’re talking about family and life. We’re going to continue to support him. The guys have been absolutely phenomenal with him so far and you can’t forget about players’ wives and significant others that have reached out as well. It’s been a rough couple of days, but it’s really, really nice to see the support for Erik.”

The Blue Jays released a brief statement on X sending “love, support and prayers (to) the entire Swanson family.” MLBTR joins countless others throughout the game in sending our best wishes to the Swanson family.

Toronto acquired Swanson from the Mariners last offseason. He turned in a 2.96 ERA in 66 2/3 innings during his first season with the club.

Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman

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The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.

Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.

The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.

Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.

A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.

While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.

The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.

Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.

Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.

Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.

The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.

Latest On Cubs’ Bullpen Plans

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Though Spring Training is underway, this offseason business is ongoing. The Cubs just reached an agreement to bring back Cody Bellinger over the weekend, a three-year, $80MM pact with a couple of opt-outs.

Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic took a look at what could be next for the Cubs and suggested they may be done making notable additions, including in the bullpen. The club had been connected to right-hander Ryne Stanek last month and Sharma reports that the interest was mutual. However, Stanek’s asking price didn’t drop to the point that the Cubs felt it was worth it to bring him aboard and sacrifice some roster flexibility.

The club’s current bullpen projection doesn’t feature a lot of optionable guys. Adbert Alzolay still has one option but he emerged as the club’s closer last year and will certainly be up with the big league club. Then there’s Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, Drew Smyly and Yency Almonte, all of whom are either out of options or can’t be optioned by virtue of having more than five years of big league service time.

As Sharma points out, clubs generally like to have a couple of optionable guys in the bullpen so that fresh arms can be summoned during the season when the staff is taxed. The Cubs already have five spots taken by guys who can’t be sent down and Alzolay makes six. Stanek is a veteran with over six years of service time, meaning he wouldn’t be able to be optioned either. If they were to add him into the mix, they would have seven of their eight bullpen slots locked up.

Stanek, 32, is coming off a decent three-year run with the Astros. He made 186 appearances over that time with a 2.90 ERA and strong 27% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 12.2%. He got that walk rate down to 9.9% last year but his strikeout rate also fell to 23.9%. He’s arguably the best reliever still on the open market but it seems no club has been willing to meet his asking price, including the Cubs. He’s also received interest from the Mets and Red Sox this offseason.

What also might be an issue for the Cubs is the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource lists their CBT number just over $234MM, meaning they are less than $3MM from the base threshold of $237MM. Sharma reports that “there is an understanding that they’re essentially over it” due to inevitable moves that will come over the course of the season. A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so the Cubs could always change the calculus throughout the year if they want to. But perhaps they would rather stay where they are so that they have some wiggle room to assess things as the season progresses.

Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.

Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.

Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.

As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.

A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.

While Bellinger’s strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.

That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.

Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.

In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.

Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.

Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.

The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Notes: Coliseum, Wood, Spence

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The Athletics are set to meet with the African American Sports & Entertainment Group next week to discussing selling their 50% stake in the Oakland Coliseum, reports Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The city currently owns the other 50% of the Coliseum complex. Oakland’s AASEG also offered to purchase a stake in the Coliseum last year but were rebuffed, Akers adds.

A’s fans will want to check out the report for full details, but the A’s could sell off their share of the Coliseum complex entirely, with the AASEG looking to develop potential sites for expansion franchises in the NFL and WNBA. Akers adds that the A’s are “open” to sharing the Coliseum with the Oakland Roots and Oakland Soul soccer clubs and selling their share of the facility if it can facilitate an agreement wherein the city of Oakland allows the club to extend its lease at the Coliseum from 2025-27 — the interim years between the current lease expiration (at the end of 2024) and the planned opening of their new Las Vegas ballpark.

Turning to the team itself, the ’24 Athletics will feature a largely revamped rotation. The team’s hope had been that an aggressive fire sale of talents like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Sean Murphy and others would create a base of controllable young talent around which to build. That hasn’t played out. Most of the young pitchers acquired thus far in the rebuild have failed to progress. That led the front office to look outside the organization, signing Alex Wood to a one-year deal worth $8.5MM and swinging a trade to acquire Wood’s former Giants teammate, Ross Stripling.

Wood spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle about both his excitement to be back into a full-time starting role and some frustration with the manner in which the Giants handled last year’s staff. Wood made three starts to begin the season, briefly landed on the injured list, and was surprised to be asked to pitch in relief upon returning.

“When I came back [from the injured list] four weeks later, it was like, ‘Hey can you throw an inning out of the bullpen against Arizona Friday, and we’ll start you on Monday in Philly?’” Wood explained. “It was from the beginning of the year we were doing stuff like that. It definitely wasn’t the easiest thing.”

The Giants used 13 starting pitchers in 2023, but that included a handful of relievers who were regularly used as openers. Ryan Walker, Scott Alexander (also an Athletic now) and John Brebbia were the most frequent openers for a Giants club that deployed that tactic a whopping 35 times in 2023 despite rostering several veteran rotation pieces. Wood, Stripling, Sean Manaea and Jakob Junis have all worked as starters in the past but were used in similar hybrid roles in ’23, with the results ranging from pedestrian to sub-par. Finding a more stable rotation role was a priority in free agency, Wood told Shea.

Further down the rotation pecking order is right-hander Mitch Spence, the top pick in December’s Rule 5 Draft. Spence, selected out of the Yankees organization, is in camp with the A’s competing for a spot on the roster, ideally in the rotation. But with four spots spoken for — Wood, Stripling, Paul Blackburn and JP Sears — securing a spot is a tall order. Manager Mark Kotsay spoke highly of Spence in chatting with Martin Gallegos of MLB.com, however, and suggested that there could be a long relief role available for Spence even if he doesn’t seize a spot on the starting staff.

“He’s going to compete for a rotation spot,” said Kotsay of Spence, “and we’ll probably entertain looking at a long role for him if the rotation doesn’t make sense or if he doesn’t make it.”

The 25-year-old Spence paced all minor league pitchers with 163 innings over the course of 29 starts in 2023. He posted a 4.47 ERA with the Yankees’ top affiliate in Scranton, fanning 21.8% of his opponents against a sharp 7.3% walk rate. Spence notched an already impressive 50% ground-ball rate last season, but he tells Gallegos he’s also working to incorporate a sinker into his repertoire this spring, in an effort to up that grounder rate even further. Kotsay likened Spence to his new teammate, Blackburn, noting that he’s not overpowering and is more location-focused while praising his ability to pitch inside.

If Spence doesn’t make Oakland’s roster, he’ll need to be exposed to waivers and, if he clears, offered back to the Yankees for a nominal sum of $50K. So far, the right-hander has made just one appearance in camp, pitching two innings and allowing a run on three hits with no walks and three punchouts. Spence will compete with names like Luis Medina, Joe Boyle, Joey Estes, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok, Kyle Muller and Osvaldo Bido for either a rotation or swingman spot with the A’s.

Red Sox Sign Jason Alexander To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed right-hander Jason Alexander to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The righty is a client of Apex Baseball.

Alexander, 31 on Friday, was able to make his major league debut with the Brewers in 2022. He tossed 71 2/3 innings over 11 starts and seven relief appearances. He posted a 5.40 earned run average in that time with a subpar 14.3% strikeout rate but a strong 50.6% ground ball rate and an 8.7% walk rate that was right around league average.

Last year, he was shut down in the spring due to a shoulder strain and began the year on the 60-day injured list. He was activated off the IL in July but then optioned to the minors. A few weeks later, he was outrighted off the 40-man. He tossed 55 1/3 innings at Triple-A last year with a 5.86 ERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. He was not added back to the roster at season’s end and was able to elect free agency.

The righty’s performance in recent years has largely resembled his previous body of work. He’s never racked up tons of strikeouts but has avoided walks and kept the ball on the ground. He has a 4.75 ERA in 407 1/3 innings minor league innings in his career overall. He has only punched out 19.3% of batters faced but has only walked 6.4% of them while getting heaps of ground balls.

The Red Sox posted a team-wide ERA of 4.52 last year, a mark that was better than just nine other clubs. They came into this winter looking to upgrade the pitching staff but haven’t done too much. They signed Lucas Giolito to take a spot in their rotation but also traded Chris Sale to Atlanta. They’ve also made marginal additions, adding guys like Cooper Criswell, Greg Weissert and Isaiah Campbell.

Alexander will be looking to earn his way onto the roster alongside other non-roster players like Joely Rodríguez and Lucas Luetge. If Alexander is added at any point, he still has a couple of options and less than a year of service time.

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