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MLBTR Podcast: How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
  • How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
  • Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
  • Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
  • Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
  • Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
  • How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
  • Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
  • What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities

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Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.

There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.

Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:

While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.

The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.

Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.

The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.

Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.

Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.

That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.

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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.

Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.

The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.

Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.

Padres Remain Interested In Outfield Addition

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The Padres continue their search for an established outfielder, writes Dennis Lin of the Athletic. Free agent Tommy Pham remains a possibility, Lin indicates. San Diego’s regular season opener is just three weeks away.

Lin first reported the Padres had given some consideration to Pham at the beginning of the month. While San Diego has since added Jurickson Profar on a $1MM pact, that’s not a huge impediment to bringing in another outfielder. San Diego still has only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azócar and Profar.

Regardless of whether they add anyone else, they’re sorting through a few non-roster players battling in camp. None is more exciting than 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is working out the top shortstop prospect in the outfield this spring. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this afternoon that Merrill seems increasingly likely to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

The Padres wouldn’t call Merrill up if they weren’t going to give him everyday run. He’d be making the jump past Triple-A. The former first-round pick split last year between High-A and Double-A. Merrill put up a .273/.338/.444 line in 211 plate appearances with Double-A San Antonio. That’s solid work in the pitcher-friendly Texas League, although it doesn’t guarantee he’ll find success against big league pitching right away.

Depending on potential acquisitions, the Padres could offer Merrill regular run in either left or center field. Pham would be limited to left field. Landing him would kick Profar to the bench and provide an upgrade to the lineup. Pham is coming off a .256/.328/.446 slash with 16 homers and 22 steals through 481 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. He’s a known quantity for the front office after playing in San Diego from 2020-21.

Adding a corner outfielder would leave Merrill competing with Azócar and perhaps Jakob Marsee for the center field job. Azócar is a good runner and defensive specialist who has hit .249/.292/.341 in 153 big league games. Marsee, 22, only has 16 games above High-A. He posted excellent numbers at High-A Fort Wayne a year ago, running a .273/.413/.425 line with 41 steals and more walks than strikeouts. Prospect evaluators generally rank him as a solid but not elite minor league talent. He’s widely projected as a fourth outfielder based on strong strike zone awareness with limited power.

Each of Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson, Cal Mitchell and Tim Locastro are in camp on minor league deals. None of them is likely to step into an everyday role, but there should be room for at least one to secure a bench spot. Michael A. Taylor is the only potential regular center fielder left on the free agent market. Pham, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario are the top corner options. There’s still some activity on the trade front, as this week’s deal sending Manuel Margot to Minnesota demonstrates. While the Padres have been loosely connected to Jarren Duran and Sal Frelick in trade rumors, there’s no indication they made any headway in those discussions.

Boras, Hoyer Discuss Bellinger Signing

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The Cubs reintroduced Cody Bellinger at a press conference this morning. The two-time All-Star was alongside agent Scott Boras and Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to discuss his protracted free agent process (link to the full presser).

At the start of the offseason, few would’ve expected Bellinger settling for a three-year guarantee worth $80MM. His camp began the winter in search of a much larger offer, reportedly seeking upwards of $200MM. Unsurprisingly, no one confirmed the precise contract terms that Bellinger had sought, although the former MVP conceded he initially expected an extended deal.

“Yeah, I think there’s definitely that thought that goes into it,” Bellinger said when asked if he anticipated signing a long-term contract. “Ultimately, that’s the goal. … I talked to Scott continuously to see what was going on. At the end of the day, I’m super excited how it all worked out. Yes, obviously (thought about a longer deal), but I’m very excited with it all and very happy to get going.”

With the offseason nearing an end, it’s clear that teams weren’t going to meet Bellinger’s asking price on that kind of contract. At that point, he moved to the much shorter term with the ability to opt out and retest free agency in either of the next two offseasons. He’ll collect $30MM for the upcoming season. If he repeats his 2023 production, he’ll almost certainly take another swing at a massive contract — this time without a qualifying offer attached and with potentially greater confidence around the league that he has put his dismal 2021-22 campaigns behind him.

Boras suggested that Bellinger was always targeting one of those outcomes: either an especially long-term deal or a short-term pact with opt-outs. “Cody and I agreed that we’re going to look at this in a couple ways. We’re going to have two positive outcomes for this process. … Our dynamic was to determine what it was on the other end with a contract of great length. As we got through that process and looked to it, that’s certainly where we let Jed know that on something like this — with this kind of structure, with this kind of flexibility, with these kinds of things, is what we’re looking for. We had mutual agreement and understanding that this type of structure was agreeable to both of us.”

Bellinger’s youth certainly plays a part in that. He turns 29 in July, leaving open the possibility of seeking another long-term pact next winter. His camp seemed to prefer that to locking in a five- or six-year contract that would’ve guaranteed more than $80MM but wasn’t close to his initial asking price and wouldn’t have allowed him to get back to the market.

The short term with the higher annual salary works well for the Cubs. Bellinger offers cover in both center field and at first base. Chicago had been set to turn to highly-touted but unproven players in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at those respective positions. The move pushes the Cubs to a franchise high in terms of player spending.

RosterResource calculates their 2024 payroll around $222MM. They’re at $234MM in estimated luxury tax commitments, just below the $237MM base threshold. It’s probable the Cubs will up end up paying the CBT if they’re as competitive as they hope. Even if this is their final move of the offseason, any salary taken on in midseason acquisitions counts against the CBT on a prorated basis.

Hoyer predictably declined to answer when asked if ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax. He noted that it’s his “expectation” they’ll carry this roster into the season, although he indicated the front office will stay open to opportunities. “Obviously, we’re never going to stop looking. Never put a final nail in that because things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out.“

Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans

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The Mets have remained in contact with representatives for some free agent starters, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic. Britton and Sammon report that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is one of the players with whom New York has touched base.

It doesn’t seem that’s reflective of strong current interest in the 2023 All-Star, however. The Athletic writes that the Mets may be keeping lines of communication open with starters in case they lose another member of their rotation to injury. Presumptive Opening Day starter Kodai Senga suffered a strain in his throwing shoulder last week and isn’t expected to be ready until sometime in May.

[Related: Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen]

Baseball operations president David Stearns said in the wake of the Senga injury that he didn’t anticipate it’d lead to increased urgency to add another starter. Even if that’s currently the case, losing someone else in the next couple weeks could change the calculus. David Peterson is also out into the middle of the season after undergoing an offseason labrum repair in his left hip.

At the moment, the starting five projects as Luis Severino, José Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and one of José Butto, Tylor Megill or Joey Lucchesi. Waiver pickup Max Kranick also holds a 40-man roster spot. The Mets haven’t added any non-roster starting pitchers with MLB experience this offseason. It’s a reasonably deep group but one without a clear top-end arm while Senga is on the shelf.

To that end, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that the Mets should consider pursuing Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander would knock everyone else down a notch on the rotation depth chart. Unlike Blake Snell, he wouldn’t cost the team a draft choice, since Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of a midseason trade. It’s unclear how much his camp is still seeking. Montgomery was reportedly looking for a deal exceeding the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured early in the offseason. This deep into the winter, a four- or five-year pact appears much more likely.

The Mets still don’t appear willing to make that level of commitment. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets haven’t been involved on Snell or Montgomery. Martino adds that they’re unlikely to land a starter from the next tier of free agency (e.g. Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger) unless those players’ asking prices fall. Instead, Martino suggests they’re likely to explore depth additions who could be cut loose by another team at the end of Spring Training or would be amenable to a minor league pact.

New York would need to pay a 110% tax on any spending since they’re in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in three straight years. Signing Montgomery for $22MM annually, to use a hypothetical, would cost the Mets more than $46MM for the upcoming season after taxes — $22MM to the player, $24.2MM in CBT fees. Signing Lorenzen or Clevinger to a $10MM contract would cost the team $21MM.

Yankees Claim Jahmai Jones, Designate Jordan Groshans

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The Yankees announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Jahmai Jones off waivers from the Brewers, who’d recently designated him for assignment. Fellow infielder Jordan Groshans has been designated for assignment in order to clear space on the 40-man roster.

A second-round pick by the Angels back in 2015, Jones is a former top-100 prospect who’s struggled in a trio of brief looks at the MLB level between Anaheim, Baltimore and Milwaukee. He’s taken just 90 turns at the plate in the big leagues and produced a .179/.233/.226 line with a dismal 36.7% strikeout rate.

The 26-year-old Jones is a more accomplished minor league hitter, however — as evidenced by a career .251/.377/.436 slash. He’s posted a far more manageable 21.9% strikeout rate at that level while also walking in a huge 15.4% of his 857 plate appearances. Jones has connected on 25 homers, swiped 25 bags and added 42 doubles and seven triples during his time in Triple-A. He’s a right-handed hitter who, in addition to more than 3400 career innings at second base, has logged nearly 1700 innings in center and more than 500 in left field.

Whether Jones sticks on the big league roster in New York is a fair question. He’s out of minor league options, meaning he can’t be sent to Triple-A Scranton without first passing through waivers. The Yanks could carry Jones on the bench in place of Oswald Peraza or Oswaldo Cabrera, opting to get either (likely Peraza) everyday playing time in the minors with a regular role not currently available on the big league roster. Alternatively, the Yankees might simply hope to turn around and pass Jones through waivers themselves, which would allow them to keep him on the Scranton roster as a depth piece who no longer commands a 40-man roster spot.

That same fate could await the 24-year-old Groshans. Like Jones, he’s a former top-100 prospect whose stock has dimmed in recent years. Groshans has just 65 MLB plate appearances and a .262/.308/.312 slash to show for it. His .253/.350/.322 output in 940 Triple-A plate appearances isn’t much better. He’s primarily played on the left side of the infield, splitting time in near even fashion between shortstop and third base, but Groshans does have more limited experience at second base (76 innings) and first base (396 innings) as well.

Groshans does have a minor league option year remaining, which could make him appealing to another club via waiver claim or minor trade. The Yankees will have a week to find a trade partner or complete the process of passing him through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, Groshans could be assigned outright to Triple-A and retained as a non-roster depth option. He lacks the major league service time and prior outright assignment to reject an outright from New York.

Rockies Claim Sam Hilliard From Orioles

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1:31pm: The teams have now announced the move. Baltimore isn’t making a corresponding transaction at this time. Colorado placed Senzatela on the 60-day injured list.

1:20pm: The Rockies have reacquired outfielder Sam Hilliard, claiming him off waivers from the Orioles, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Neither Colorado nor Baltimore has announced the move yet.

The Rox will need to make 40-man roster move to facilitate the addition, but that can be accomplished by placing either Antonio Senzatela or German Marquez on the 60-day injured list. Both right-handers are recovering from 2023 Tommy John surgery. The claim also opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for the O’s, who had not previously announced that Hilliard was designated for assignment or placed on outright waivers.

It’s a reunion between Hilliard and the team that originally selected him in the 15th round of the 2015 draft. Current Rockies GM Bill Schmidt was the team’s scouting director at the time and held that role throughout the years that saw Hilliard develop and break into the majors in Colorado.

From 2019-22, Hilliard appeared in 214 games as a Rockie, playing all three outfield spots and batting a combined .212/.294/.423 with 29 homers, 15 steals, a 10% walk rate and an ugly 32.7% strikeout rate over a total of 639 plate appearances. Strikeouts have long been an issue for Hilliard, who touts an impressive .265/.346/.570 slash and 62 homers in just 942 Triple-A plate appearances but has punched out at an unsightly 28.5% clip at that level.

With the exception of the 2023 season, Hilliard’s entire career has been spent with the Rockies. The Braves picked him up in a Nov. 2022 trade sending minor league righty Dylan Spain to the Rox in return. Hilliard appeared in 40 games and hit .236/.295/.431 through 78 plate appearances in Atlanta, fanning in an eye-popping 42.3% of his plate appearances. A heel injury ultimately sent Hilliard to the 60-day injured list, however, and the Braves tried to pass him through waivers following the season — at which point the O’s claimed him. His stay with Baltimore will prove fleeting; Hilliard went hitless in five spring plate appearances as an Oriole and is now back with his original organization.

The Rockies were on the lookout for a left-handed-hitting outfielder who could handle center field for much of the offseason. They inked Bradley Zimmer to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training, giving them one such option, but Hilliard provides another candidate for that role — not only one who’s on the 40-man roster but one who’s out of minor league options. Hilliard can’t be sent to Triple-A without first clearing waivers, which puts him in strong position to break camp with the Rox, where he’d be a lefty complement to right-handed-hitting outfielders Brenton Doyle and Sean Bouchard.

Hilliard and the Orioles avoided an arbitration hearing earlier in the offseason by agreeing to an $800K salary for the upcoming season. The Rockies will now be on the hook for the entirety of that sum, which checks in only narrowly above the $740K league minimum. Hilliard has 3.094 years of big league service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration through the 2026 season.

As for the Orioles, it’s fairly common for them to agree to modest big league salaries with depth pieces and then attempt to pass them through waivers, hoping a salary north of the league minimum will help that player clear and be retained in the upper minors as depth. They’ve previously done so with names like Anthony Bemboom, Jake Cave and Ryan O’Hearn (the latter of whom eventually emerged as a key contributor in 2023). It’s certainly of note that today’s transaction clears a spot on the 40-man roster, as Baltimore now has additional leeway to make a free-agent signing, trade acquisition or waiver claim of its own.

Orioles Sign Kolten Wong To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve signed veteran second baseman Kolten Wong to a minor league deal. The PSI Sports Management client will join their big league camp as a non-roster invitee. Baltimore also confirmed its previously reported signing of right-hander Julio Teheran — also on a minor league deal and non-roster invitation.

Wong split the 2023 season between the Mariners and Dodgers, struggling mightily over a monthslong stint in Seattle before posting sharp numbers in a tiny sample of 34 plate appearances with the Dodgers late in the season. The now-33-year-old veteran hit just .165/.241/.227 in 216 trips to the plate as a Mariner — 65% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+ — before batting .300/.353/.500 with a pair of homers in his brief time with Los Angeles.

Prior to last season’s uneven and generally ugly showing, Wong was a relatively consistent source of slightly above-average production at the plate and standout defense. A two-time Gold Glove winner at second base, he was the game’s premier defensive option at the position for a few years. And from 2017-22, Wong tallied 2564 plate appearances between the Cardinals and Brewers, slashing a combined .269/.349/.414 (about 7% better than average, per wRC+).

Wong has never been a premier power hitter or speed threat, but he does have five seasons of double-digit home run totals and another five seasons of double-digit stolen base totals. He’s fanned at a 16% clip that’s well south of the league average while walking at a 7.7% rate that’s less than one percentage point shy of the league mean.

Given the sheer volume of infield talent the Orioles possess, Wong will face an uphill battle to make the club. Gunnar Henderson can handle either position on the left side of the diamond, and he’ll be joined by a combination of ballyhooed prospects including Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Jackson Holliday — the current No. 1 overall prospect in baseball.

Baltimore also has veteran depth/utility options in the form of Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo, the latter of whom is seeing more time in the outfield this spring on account of the wealth of infield talent the O’s have in house. Corner infielder Coby Mayo is also rapidly climbing the minor league ranks and could debut this season, while yet another top prospect, Heston Kjerstad, is also in the mix for at-bats alongside veteran Ryan Mountcastle at first and Anthony Santander in right field. One thing perhaps working in Wong’s favor is his left-handed bat. Each of Westburg, Norby, Mayo, Urias and Mateo bats right-handed. If the O’s want a veteran lefty bat off the bench who can spend some time at second and provide insurance for their bevy of talented but inexperienced infielders, Wong could fit the bill.

Guardians Shut Trevor Stephan Down For Three Weeks

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The Guardians have shut setup man Trevor Stephan down for the next three weeks due to a deep bone bruise in his right elbow, manager Stephen Vogt announced to reporters this morning (X link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). There’s no concern about Stephan’s ulnar collateral ligament or any structural damage in his elbow, Vogt added.

A three-week shutdown for Stephan makes a potential season-opening stint on the injured list a strong possibility — if not a likelihood. Opening Day is just one month away, and it seems as though Stephan won’t pick up a ball until we’re around eight days out from that point.

Stephan, 28, was a Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees organization heading into the 2021 season and has proven to be one of the most shrewd Rule 5 selections by any team in recent seasons. He’s pitched at least 63 innings out of the Cleveland ’pen in each of the past three seasons, saved six games and piled up 50 holds in that time. Stephan moved from low-stakes outings into a high-leverage role in 2022, and over the past two seasons he’s given the Guards 132 1/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with even better marks from metrics like FIP (2.90) and SIERA (3.18) thanks in large part to his excellent rate stats. Since 2022, Stephan has whiffed 28% of his opponents against a 7.8% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.6% clip.

Stephan is less than two weeks into his spring training and will now be shut down for at least 21 days. He’ll effectively be starting his spring over whenever he does resume throwing. If there are no further setbacks and the issue heals within the provided three-week window, there’s a chance he could still ramp up and be back with the big league club before the end of April, but only time will tell how his elbow mends.

Assuming Stephan is indeed out to begin the season, trade acquisition Scott Barlow will likely step up as the primary setup man to closer Emmanuel Clase. James Karinchak, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin could all see some extra leverage situations early in the 2024 campaign as well. In general, the Guardians have a deep bullpen that can absorb a relatively short absence for one of its top relievers to begin the season.

The depth of that relief corps is perhaps one reason the team at least listened to trade offers on Clase back in December, but a deal never seemed likely due to the closer’s remaining five years of affordable control under the terms of the extension he signed in 2022. Clase is guaranteed just $15MM over the next three seasons and, via a pair of club options, could earn a total of $33MM from 2024-28. Given that affordable deal, the asking price in a trade was always going to be enormous — and thus unlikely to be met. That’s become even more true as the season has drawn nearer, and an injury to Stephan even further reduces what was already a minuscule chance of a deal coming together.

Mason Thompson To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Nationals right-hander Mason Thompson will undergo Tommy John surgery on Friday, with Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com among those to relay the news. As noted by Zuckerman, this will be the second time the righty will be undergoing the procedure, with the first occurring when he was a high schooler.

A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that Thompson would be shut down due to an elbow injury. At that time, manager Dave Martinez confessed that the team was “a little concerned,” so they likely had some inkling that today’s news was possible.

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating setback for both Thompson and the team. The now-26-year-old came over to the Nationals from the Padres in the 2021 Daniel Hudson trade and now has 106 games of MLB experience under his belt between those two clubs. He has logged 103 1/3 innings, allowing 4.53 earned runs per nine. His 17.7% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both subpar, but his 51.1% ground ball rate is quite strong.

The Nats are rebuilding and will likely have plenty of innings available for young pitchers this year, allowing them to continue to develop while showcasing their abilities to the league. Unfortunately, Thompson won’t be able to take advantage of that opportunity. Since Tommy John rehab generally takes over a year, he’ll miss the entire 2024 season and perhaps the early portions of 2025 as well.

The club will have to pivot to other options with Thompson no longer in the mix for this year’s bullpen innings. They have given minor league deals to various veterans such as Derek Law, Matt Barnes, Richard Bleier, Luis Perdomo and Jacob Barnes.

The Nats will likely transfer Thompson to the 60-day injured list once they need his roster spot. If that comes to pass, he’ll spend the whole year there, receiving major league pay and service time. He would cross three years of service in that scenario and qualify for arbitration next winter, though missing the entire year will make him unlikely to receive a substantial raise. The Nats could also designate him for assignment, but injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, meaning he’d have to be put on release waivers. They could then try to re-sign him to a minor league deal but Thompson would be free to explore opportunities with other clubs.

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