Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.
Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.
After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.
His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.
When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.
Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.
Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.
While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.
How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:
