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Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea

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Left-hander Sean Manaea has a lengthy track record of being a decent mid-rotation starter, but the past couple of years have been challenging. Overall, he has an earned run average of 4.10 in just over 1,000 career innings at the major league level. He has struck out roughly a quarter of batters faced in each of the past four full seasons and has never had a walk rate higher than 8.4%.

But in 2022, his performance dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals were still pretty strong, as he struck out 23.2% of batters faced and walked just 7.5%, but it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished results as he was heading into free agency for the first time.

The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The club was aggressive in deploying openers, only giving Manaea 10 actual starts, but he logged 117 2/3 innings on the year over 37 appearances. He finished with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Though those results were more decent than spectacular, he still decided to trigger his opt-out and return to the open market.

Things get a little more interesting when digging deeper into his season, which may give more insight into his decision to try free agency again. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this year and had great results with it. Per Statcast data, he first threw the pitch on May 30 and ultimately tossed it 214 times, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season overall. He felt comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, with a perfect split of 107 sweepers thrown to each. That resulted in a huge whiff percentage of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph average exit velocity was easily the lowest of any of his offerings.

The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.

This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, an average annual value of $11MM. That’s roughly the going rate for a back-end innings eater these days. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Lance Lynn got $11MM while Kyle Gibson got $13MM. Jack Flaherty got $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM despite a poor platform seasons, while Frankie Montas got $16MM even though he missed almost all of the year recovering from shoulder surgery. Tyler Mahle got $22MM over two years even though he’s going to miss at least part of the upcoming campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

If Manaea can maintain the results he showed over the final four months of 2023, he could be a bargain, especially with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure deals. The need for starting pitching is still high and just about every club would benefit from the kind of performance Manaea seems capable of. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly interested in a reunion but no other suitors publicly mentioned.

The Opener: Offseason Thaw, Red Sox, Cubs

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Here are three things we’re watching around baseball as 2024 kicks into gear…

1. Offseason set to ramp up?

There have been some massive news stories this offseason, such as the record-setting deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as well as the Juan Soto trade, but it has undoubtedly been slow on the whole. 28 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unattached, including big names like Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. There’s also plenty of notable guys in the lower tiers still out there, a handful of expected trades that have to be finished and a batch of arbitration salaries that need to be sorted out. Many of the top spenders were focused on Ohtani for a long time and then pivoted to Yamamoto, but by the time both agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it was almost time for the holiday break. With those holidays now over, there’s just six weeks until players start reporting for Spring Training and a lot of work to do, meaning the ice has to crack soon.

2. What’s next for the Boston rotation?

The Red Sox have had upgrading their rotation as a priority all winter. They finally made a move by signing Lucas Giolito last week, but then traded Chris Sale to Atlanta the very next day. That leaves them with Giolito, followed by options like Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Is there another move coming in the next few weeks?

3. Will the Cubs finally leap into action?

The Cubs have arguably been the least active club this winter, at least in terms of results. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each club’s free agent spending thus far this offseason and the Cubs were one of four yet to spend any money at all. The other three have been active in different ways, with the Yankees trading for Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, the Marlins acquiring Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Bruján, and the Rockies having traded for Cal Quantrill. The Cubs have been connected to many big names, both in free agency and the trade market, but haven’t been able to land anything yet.

Each Team’s Free Agent Spending Thus Far

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The New Year serves as a symbolic halfway point of the offseason. We’re two months removed from the final game of last year’s Fall Classic and about seven weeks from the first Spring Training contests of 2024. There’s still plenty of offseason to go — only 22 of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents are off the board — but we’ll take this opportunity to check in on which teams have been the most active thus far.

Using our Contract Tracker, we see all of this offseason’s free agent activity. We’ll limit this look to players who inked major league contracts and set the cutoff as November 6 — the date on which free agents were first permitted to speak with teams other than their 2023 club. This excludes the extensions signed by Joe Jiménez (Braves), Max Muncy (Dodgers) and Colin Rea (Brewers) between the start of the offseason and the official opening of free agency.

This isn’t an exhaustive look at a team’s offseason activity. The Yankees (Juan Soto) and Braves (Chris Sale) took on high-priced star players in trade, while the Dodgers extended Tyler Glasnow and the Brewers signed a long-term deal with top prospect Jackson Chourio. This looks only at free agency. Teams are ordered by overall spending.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Total guarantees: $1.043 billion

Philadelphia Phillies

Total guarantees: $172MM

Arizona Diamondbacks

Total guarantees: $122MM

San Francisco Giants

Total guarantees: $121.25MM

Cincinnati Reds

Total guarantees: $106.2MM

Kansas City Royals

Total guarantees: $105MM

St. Louis Cardinals

Total guarantees: $99MM

Detroit Tigers

Total guarantees: $45.75MM

Boston Red Sox

Total guarantees: $39.5MM

Atlanta Braves

Total guarantees: $30MM

San Diego Padres

Total guarantees: $28MM

Texas Rangers

Total guarantees: $26.5MM

Toronto Blue Jays

Total guarantees: $25.5MM

Chicago White Sox

Total guarantees: $24.3MM

Seattle Mariners

Total guarantees: $24MM

New York Mets

Total guarantees: $18.8MM

Pittsburgh Pirates

Total guarantees: $16.2MM

Baltimore Orioles

Total guarantees: $13MM

Houston Astros

Total guarantees: $12MM

Milwaukee Brewers

Total guarantees: $11.25MM

Los Angeles Angels

Total guarantees: More than $6.8MM

Cleveland Guardians

Total guarantees: $4.75MM

Washington Nationals

Total guarantees: $4.25MM

Oakland A’s

Total guarantees: $1.5MM

Tampa Bay Rays

Total guarantees: $1.1MM

Minnesota Twins

Total guarantees: $950K

New York Yankees

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Chicago Cubs

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Miami Marlins

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Colorado Rockies

Total guarantees: $0

  • None

Kazuto Taguchi Interested In Move To MLB

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Left-hander Kazuto Taguchi re-signed with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows on a three-year contract worth 550 million yen (roughly $3.89MM), according to Sanspo News and other Japanese outlets.  The 28-year-old closer also expressed an interest in eventually pursuing a move to Major League Baseball, which could happen as early as next offseason.  Taguchi is a season away from reaching the full nine years of NPB service time required to be a full free agent without a posting fee involved, and his comments suggest that his deal with the Swallows might contain an out clause in such a circumstance.

Taguchi has a 3.36 ERA over 825 career innings in Nippon Professional Baseball, pitching with the Yomiuri Giants from 2014-20 until a trade to the Swallows prior to the start of the 2021 season.  A rough 2018 campaign moved Taguchi from the rotation to the bullpen, and his work as a reliever has become increasingly impressive.  Taguchi posted a 1.25 ERA over 36 innings for the Swallows as a setup man in 2022, and then a 1.86 ERA over 48 1/3 innings as the team’s closer last season.  His work helped the Swallows to back-to-back pennants in 2021-22, and the Japan Series crown in 2021.

At only 5’7″ and 165 pounds, Taguchi isn’t exactly an imposing figure on the mound, and some Major League scouts might inevitably have concerns over his durability.  That said, working out of the bullpen should help Taguchi stay healthy, and becoming a reliever seems to have unlocked a new level of performance.  Taguchi has always had solid control as both a starter or a reliever, and his 28.5% strikeout rate in 2023 marked a new career high.  Home runs also used to be a slight concern for Taguchi earlier in his career, yet he has allowed just two big flies since the start of the 2022 season.

Yuki Matsui just signed a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres less than two weeks ago, and beyond being just a month younger than Taguchi, Matsui is also a rather diminutive left-handed reliever.  However, Matsui has a much longer track record as a closer and is coming to MLB in advance of his age-28 season, whereas Taguchi would be coming to the Show prior to his age-29 season.

Perhaps a two-year pact might be a more realistic target for Taguchi at this point than Matsui’s deal (which is also somewhat unusually structured, with two opt-out clauses and an “injury clause”).  Given the variance involved in relief pitching, projecting contracts even for established Major League relievers is difficult a year in advance, let alone NPB pitchers.  Naturally another strong performance in the 2024 NPB season would help Taguchi’s prospects of landing a nice payday in the big leagues, and he could be a pitcher to monitor heading into the 2024-25 offseason.

Cubs Hire Jason Kanzler As Director Of Player Development; Promote Ryan Otero To Pitching Director

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5:57PM: The Cubs have also promoted Ryan Otero to be the team’s new director of pitching, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports.  Otero has worked in the Cubs’ player development and research & development departments since 2018, and he worked as the assistant director of pitching last season under Breslow.

4:15PM: The Cubs have hired Jason Kanzler as their new director of player development, according to reporter Michael Schwab (X link).  Kanzler will move to the front office from the dugout, as he has been a member of the Astros coaching staff for the last three seasons.

Jared Banner had previously worked as Chicago’s VP of player development, yet with Banner now promoted to the assistant GM role, it seems as if the Cubs are shuffling some responsibilities within their office.  The farm director duties will now be overseen by the 33-year-old Kanzler, who just wrapped up his minor league playing career in 2015.

After three seasons in the Twins’ farm system, Kanzler became a teacher, while also keeping his foot in the door of a baseball career by working as an assistant coach in the Cape Cod League.  This led to a job as a minor league hitting coach and coordinator with the Astros beginning prior to the 2019 season, and then a promotion to the big league staff prior to the 2022 campaign.  Kanzler worked as a Major League coach in that first season, and then received a more distinct title of assistant hitting coach in 2023.

NL Notes: Miley, Reds, Mets, Marte, Brewers, Junk

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The Reds’ search for starting pitching help has resulted in deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, while the team has been linked to several other pitchers who either remain available (in trades or in free agency) or have since landed elsewhere.  MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that one of those now-signed pitching targets included Wade Miley, as Cincinnati had some talks with the veteran left-hander before Miley re-signed with the Brewers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Miley pitched for the Reds in 2020-21 and posted a 3.55 ERA over 177 1/3 innings.  The Reds held a $10MM club option on his services for 2022, yet as part of a payroll cutback, Cincinnati put Miley on waivers (where he was quickly claimed by the Cubs) in order to part ways without even paying the $1MM buyout on that option.  Miley has since posted a 3.15 ERA in 157 1/3 innings with Chicago and Milwaukee since the start of the 2022 campaign, though injuries again limited his availability.

Miley received $8.5MM in guaranteed money in his one-year deal with the Brewers, and the Reds went beyond that price range in their one-year, $16MM deal with Montas.  With $106.2MM spent so far this winter, Cincinnati has been one of the offseason’s busier teams in free agency, and it seems possible the Reds might not be done with their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.

More from around the National League…

  • The Mets have added several relievers this offseason, including Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Austin Adams, and a spate of pitchers signed to minor league contracts.  However, “a more robust signing for the bullpen shouldn’t be ruled out,” The Athletic’s Will Sammon writes, after the Mets address some more pressing needs.  Those hoping for a reunion between Josh Hader and David Stearns in Queens may be out of luck since New York isn’t expected to pursue any long-term deals until at least next offseason, yet the Mets could still look to add a prominent reliever without necessarily shopping at the very top of the free agent market.
  • In other Mets news, Sammon writes that Starling Marte may play some winter ball in his native Dominican Republic this month, as the outfielder is looking to get back to full fitness after an injury-plagued pair of seasons.  Marte battled through leg and groin injuries in 2022 and underwent surgery on both groins following that season, then hit only .248/.301/.324 over 341 plate appearances and 86 games in 2023.  In addition to some lingering after-effects from his groin surgery, Marte also missed time due to a neck strain, migraines, and then another groin strain that brought his season to a close on August 7.  Marte is therefore a question mark as he heads into his age-35 season, and the Mets’ recent acquisition of Tyrone Taylor might not be the last outfield add the club makes, Sammon observes.
  • Janson Junk has started seven of his nine career MLB games and 86 of his 112 career minor league appearances, but Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wonders if Junk’s future might ultimately be as a relief pitcher.  In the second of his two Major League appearances with the Brewers last season, Hogg noted that Junk’s fastball twice hit 96mph on the radar gun, a significant step beyond his 92.1mph fastball velocity in Triple-A.  If this extra velo is sustainable in a more limited relief capacity, Junk’s fastball suddenly become a more dangerous pitch, perhaps making him an interesting bullpen candidate since he can pair that upgraded heater with a solid curveball.  Teams usually don’t look to transition starting pitchers to relief work unless circumstances or performance demands because rotation depth is so valuable, yet should Junk (who has a 4.07 ERA and middling secondary metrics over 495 1/3 career minor league innings) get some looks as a reliever, it might help him more firmly find a niche in the majors.

MLBTR Poll: Matt Chapman’s Market

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Beyond Shohei Ohtani, the top of the free agent hitting market has been stagnant. Of the nine hitters in MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents, four (Ohtani, Jeimer Candelario, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jung Hoo Lee) have come off the board. Just over a third of the 20 offensive players to make our Top 50 have signed.

There hasn’t even been much chatter about interest in a few of the market’s top bats. That includes third baseman Matt Chapman, on whom there has been radio silence since a December 4 report the Cubs were keeping an eye on his market. Chicago is among a handful of teams tied to the four-time Gold Glover winner in any capacity. The Blue Jays have expressed interest in a reunion, while the Giants (now led by former A’s manager Bob Melvin) have been linked throughout the offseason.

That trio stands as the likeliest group of suitors. The Cubs have been tied to a number of free agent targets (Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Shota Imanaga among them) but have yet to add anyone from the open market. Chicago allowed Candelario to walk and has an underwhelming group of third base options: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni.

Toronto has yet to significantly address the position since Chapman hit free agency. They brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal last week. He’s better suited as a utility player than a regular. Between Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio and prospect Addison Barger, the Jays could mix and match at the hot corner. No one from that group stands as a clear roadblock to Chapman, though.

In J.D. Davis, the Giants have a better in-house third base option than either Chicago or Toronto do. Chapman isn’t a marked offensive upgrade over Davis, who just turned in another slightly above-average season and has a career .261/.343/.432 hitter. It’s a different story on the other side of the ball.

Davis has been a fringe to below-average defender throughout his career. Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated him favorably with the glove a season ago, but few would argue he’s all that close to Chapman defensively. Only the A’s allowed a higher batting average on ground-balls to the left side of the diamond than the Giants last year. While some of that is on the pitching staff and shortstops (primarily Brandon Crawford), signing Chapman would address that deficiency.

There are a few teams that arguably should be involved on Chapman, although none are without caveats. The Mets have kicked the tires on a few external options at third base — namely Justin Turner and Gio Urshela — after Ronny Mauricio went down with an ACL tear. Still, they don’t seem keen on a top-of-the-market splash as they envision Mauricio and/or Brett Baty as a long-term answer. While the Angels didn’t get much production out of third base, it’s hard to envision another pricey splash with Anthony Rendon due $38MM annually for the next three years. The Phillies appear content with Alec Bohm, while the Tigers have infield prospects Colt Keith and Jace Jung on the horizon.

The Yankees and Mariners have some questions at third base, but a run at Chapman wouldn’t align with their offseason trajectories. New York has tried to move away from their reliance on right-handed hitters with elevated strikeout rates; they’ve also declared DJ LeMahieu the expected starter. Seattle generally shies away from significant free agent contracts for hitters and is prioritizing high-contact bats this offseason.

How will that seemingly limited group of strong fits affect Chapman’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $150MM pact as he enters his age-31 season. Players like Trevor Story, Dansby Swanson and Javier Báez who broadly fit Chapman’s profile — plus or better infield defenders with power but strikeout questions — have landed in that range in recent winters, although that group all had the advantage of playing shortstop.

Where will Chapman wind up and for how much money?

 

 

The Opener: Contracts, DFA Limbo, Rodriguez

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Activity in the baseball world could pick up this week as the holiday season nears its end. A few things to keep an eye on with the beginning of 2024:

1. Unofficial contracts

A few free agent signings have yet to be made official. That’s not uncommon for late-December agreements, as holiday plans can lead some players or teams to hold off on physicals that will put the finishing touch on a contract. The Pirates have yet to announce their $8MM deal with left-hander Martín Pérez from two weeks back, while the White Sox haven’t finalized their $4MM signing of catcher Martín Maldonado. Starters Lucas Giolito (Red Sox), Frankie Montas (Reds) and Zach Plesac (Angels) agreed to deals in the last few days that haven’t been made official. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cincinnati and Los Angeles all have 40-man rosters that are at capacity, so they’ll need to make corresponding trades or DFA once those acquisitions are announced.

2. DFA resolutions

On the other side of the equation, a handful of players have awaited resolution on their status. Teams typically have a week to trade or waive someone they had designated for assignment. That clock is paused between Christmas and New Year’s, leaving a few players with an unusually long stay in DFA limbo. Max Castillo, who was DFA by the Royals on December 19, has spent the past two weeks with that uncertainty. Ryan Jensen (Marlins), Donny Sands (Tigers) and Diego Castillo (Diamondbacks) should all receive clarity on their status by the end of this week. More recent DFAs like Bryan Hudson (Dodgers), Bubba Thompson (Reds) and Declan Cronin and Carlos Pérez (both White Sox) may also be traded or placed on waivers in the next couple days.

3. Rodríguez Nearing Decision?

Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodríguez is one of the more intriguing entrants on this year’s pitching market. The 26-year-old dominated while working out of the bullpen for NPB’s Chunichi Dragons in 2022. He didn’t pitch after last year’s World Baseball Classic while awaiting an MLB opportunity, which will come this winter. Teams are divided on Rodríguez’s future as a starting pitcher, but he has a high-octane arsenal that should land him a notable multi-year pact as an upside play. ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reported on Friday that Rodríguez was close to making a decision, suggesting the Blue Jays had emerged as his top suitor. Will there be an agreement by the end of the week?

Wander Franco Meets With Prosecutors In Dominican Republic

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January 1: Franco and his new attorneys met with prosecutors on Monday morning, as first reported by Listín Diario (on X).

December 28: Franco did not appear for questioning this morning, investigator Olga Diná Llaverías told reporters (link via Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN). According to multiple reports, Franco has also dismissed his legal team. Llaverías declined comment when asked about next steps but noted the investigations remain ongoing.

December 27: Prosecutors in the Dominican Republic officially summoned Wander Franco for questioning, according to a Spanish-language report from Enrique Rojas and Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. Investigators continue to look into multiple allegations that the Rays shortstop has had inappropriate relationships with minors. ESPN reports that Franco and his attorneys are required to meet with government officials in Santo Domingo tomorrow at 11:00 am.

The Rays placed Franco on the restricted list on August 14, one day after social media allegations that Franco had an inappropriate relationship with a minor received widespread attention. The National Agency for Boys, Girls, Adolescents and Family and Gender Violence Unit in the Dominican Republic opened an investigation later that week.

In late August, ESPN reported that two more girls had made similar allegations (although one of them had not spoken with investigators). At the time, ESPN wrote that there were two formal complaints. There is nothing to suggest that isn’t still the case.

The Rays reinstated Franco onto their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason, a procedural move that didn’t indicate anything about the course of the investigation. MLB is also looking into the allegations but seems likely to wait for the legal process to play out before determining whether to impose discipline. Under the MLB/MLBPA domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy, MLB can levy discipline regardless of whether a player is criminally charged.

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