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NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Sign Andrew Stevenson

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12:50pm: Darren Wolfson of Skor North relayed the financials. Stevenson will be guarantee $850K with a club option that could make it $2.4MM over two years.

12:32pm: The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed outfielder Andrew Stevenson, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Stevenson, 30 in June, has 273 games of major league experience. Most of that was with the Nationals, though he was in the Twins’ organization in 2023. Broadly speaking, he has served as a glove-first outfielder in that time. He has eight home runs in 489 plate appearances, batting .243/.316/.352 overall for a wRC+ of 80. His glovework has resulted in four Defensive Runs Saved, three Outs Above Average and a grade of 4.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

He signed a minor league deal with the Twins back in March and was added to the roster in September. He had performed very well in Triple-A, hitting .317/.394/.522 while stealing 44 bases. He played 25 major league games down the stretch but hit just .189/.250/.216 in those, though he did swipe another four bags. He was outrighted by the Twins and elected free agency in October.

Despite his speed-and-defense, Stevenson has struggled to hold onto a big league roster spot in recent years, both due to his lack of hitting in the majors and because he burned his final option year in 2021. He didn’t get to the big leagues at all in 2022 and was just a September call-up in the most recent campaign.

Had he stayed in North America for 2024, he likely would have had to settle for another minor league deal. But by heading overseas, he will lock in a nice guarantee for himself. The financials of this deal aren’t publicly known but guys who move from MLB to NPB generally get paid a salary close to the MLB minimum. If he succeeds for the Fighters, that could perhaps lead to some more earnings in Japan and/or a return to North America down the line.

KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Daniel Castano

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The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization have signed former Marlins lefty Daniel Castano to a one-year contract, the team announced (English-language link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). He’ll earn $650K in guaranteed money between his salary and signing bonus, and he can take home another $200K via incentives.

Castano, 29, came to the Marlins alongside future stars Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen (later flipped to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm Jr.) in the trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis. He’s appeared in each of the past four seasons with Miami, logging a total of 88 2/3 innings. Along the way, the former 19th-round pick has posted a 4.47 earned run average with a 12.4% strikeout rate that’s roughly half the league average and a solid 7.9% walk rate.

Castano has appeared in parts of three Triple-A seasons with the Marlins and produced generally similar run-prevention numbers, albeit with a much better strikeout rate. In 174 innings with Miami’s top affiliate in Jacksonville, he’s logged a 4.24 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s expected to work as a starter with the Dinos, per general manager Sun-nam Lim.

The Marlins outrighted Castano off the 40-man roster in September, and he became a free agent following the season. He’d likely have been in line for a minor league deal were he to sign with an MLB organization, at which point he’d have earned at a prorated deal not far north of the MLB minimum for any time spent in the big leagues. The $650K guarantee alone should top what he might’ve made under that scenario, and the incentives give him further earning potential.

If things go well for Castano in the KBO, he could position himself to re-sign for a guarantee closer to seven figures next year, and with enough success he could draw interest from Japan’s NPB or even on a return to the big leagues. He only just turned 29 in September, so he’s still young enough to make his way back to North American ball in a few years, depending how he fares overseas.

MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

The Opener: Yamamoto, Bellinger, Greinke

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With 60 days remaining until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today…

1. Yamamoto meeting with teams:

Yesterday, the Dodgers met with NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the 25-year-old hurler continues meeting with clubs interested in his services this offseason. L.A. joins the Giants, Mets, and Yankees among clubs publicly known to have met with Yamamoto this offseason. It was reported yesterday that both the Red Sox and Blue Jays figure to join that quarter in the coming days. A report last week indicated that the field for Yamamoto’s services had thinned to seven teams, with every team that has met with Yamamoto to this point except for Boston named alongside two “mystery teams.”

2. Is Bellinger’s market crystalizing?

The Giants shocked the baseball world by landing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal worth $113MM. The signing of Lee takes another top left-handed bat off of the market following Shohei Ohtani’s decision to sign with the Dodgers and the swap that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees. Both the Giants and Yankees were considered top suitors for center fielder Cody Bellinger prior to their additions of Soto and Lee. It’s possible that the recent run on left-handed bats has left Bellinger with only a handful of potential destinations left.

Remaining suitors for Bellinger could include the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Mariners. Toronto and Chicago, the latter of whom Bellinger bounced back with in 2023, were among the final bidders on Ohtani before he landed in L.A. The Mariners, meanwhile, have little certainty in their outfield beyond Julio Rodriguez and would benefit from Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate last year as they look to create a more contact-oriented lineup. It’s also at least plausible that the Giants have the wherewithal necessary to land both Bellinger and Lee, though given the club’s logjam in the outfield they may be better suited toward spending in other areas at this point.

3. Greinke joins the market:

After months of uncertainty regarding the plans of future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke, the veteran right-hander is reportedly planning to continue his career in 2024. The news puts Greinke in line to become the 20th pitcher in major league history to record 3,000 career strikeouts, a milestone he sits just 21 punchouts away from. Beyond the potential history a 21st big league season from Greinke figures to involve, the update also adds another quality back-of-the-rotation starter to a market ravenous for starting pitching options. While Greinke struggled to the first below-average ERA+ of his career since 2005 last season, it’s easy to see a club taking a chance on Greinke given the solid deals back-end starters like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have received so far this offseason.

In the recent past, Greinke hasn’t had much impact on the wider free agent market as he’s seemingly limited himself to pitching in Kansas City. However, the news of Greinke’s decision to continue pitching comes on the heels of the Royals committing to Seth Lugo on a three-year pact, leaving open the possibility that Greinke will need to look elsewhere to continue his career. If Greinke hopes to stick with familiar clubs, both the Dodgers and Diamondbacks could use rotation fortifications, even after Arizona landed Eduardo Rodriguez earlier in the month.

Royals Finalizing Deal With Chris Stratton

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The Royals are close to securing their second free-agent pitcher of the day, as they’re reported to be finalizing a two-year, $8MM deal with reliever Chris Stratton. The contract will pay the McKinnis Sports client $3.5MM in 2024 when finalized, and there’s a $500K buyout on a $4.5MM player option for the 2025 season. Kansas City also agreed to terms with righty Seth Lugo on a three-year contract in near simultaneous fashion.

Stratton, 33, has been a quality middle-inning arm for the Pirates, Cardinals and Rangers over the past four seasons, tallying 255 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball in that time. Along the way, he’s fanned 24.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate with a 42% ground-ball rate and 0.85 homers per nine frames. Of that trio, only the Pirates regularly used him in high-leverage spots, but Stratton still collected 11 saves and 27 holds in that time (mostly coming in Pittsburgh).

Stratton has regularly worked multiple innings, evidenced by the fact that those 255 1/3 frames came over the life of just 219 appearances. He averaged just shy of 1 1/3 innings per appearance in 2023, topping out with a three-inning appearance for Texas on Aug. 12. Overall, 36 of this past season’s 64 appearances saw Stratton record at least four outs.

It’s fairly surprising to see Stratton secure an opt-out provision in his contract. Middle relievers of this ilk typically haven’t been afforded that luxury, although the Reds did give Emilio Pagan an opt-out after his first season earlier this month. For Kansas City, perhaps that was a necessary bridge to cross in order to sway a reliever they were prioritizing to sign there rather than with a more clear-cut contender. Regardless, Stratton will now get the benefit of pitching the 2024 campaign in a pitcher-friendly home park — likely with more leverage opportunities than many contending clubs might’ve otherwise offered. If it all goes well, he could be set up nicely next winter, age notwithstanding.

Stratton is the second bullpen addition for the Royals this week. Kansas City also agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal with left-hander Will Smith over the weekend. That gives the Royals a pair of affordable veterans to pair with 27-year-old James McArthur, whose overall 4.63 ERA masks the dominant finish he enjoyed in 2023; from Sept. 2 onward, McArthur rattled off 16 1/3 shutout innings with 19 strikeouts (35.8% strikeout rate) and no walks. Small sample or not, he clearly thrust himself into the team’s late-inning mix with a performance like that. The Royals also picked up former Rays and Braves reliever Nick Anderson in a swap with Atlanta earlier in the winter; Anderson has been prone to injury but boasts a 2.93 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate in 122 2/3 career innings when healthy.

The additions of Stratton and Smith tack about $9MM onto the 2024 payroll, and today’s agreement with Lugo adds another $15MM. Royals general manager J.J. Picollo said earlier in the month that he had at least $30MM to spend (for the 2024 season, not overall). That would leave the Royals with at least another $6MM or so to put toward  improvements for the current roster, if not a bit more. Kansas City has also reportedly been active in the trade market, with names like MJ Melendez, Freddy Fermin and Michael Massey among those on which they’re said to be comfortable listening. Even if the budget is a bit tight for another notable free-agent move, it’s possible a deal for rotation and/or bullpen help could come together via the trade market.

Anne Rogers of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were finalizing a deal. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman added financial details.

Zaidi: Giants Offered Same Deal That Ohtani Accepted From Dodgers

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi conducted a conference call with reporters on Tuesday evening. San Francisco’s baseball operations leader touched on the club’s pursuit of new division rival Shohei Ohtani now that he’s free to speak about that process publicly.

Zaidi told the media the Giants offered essentially the same contract terms as Ohtani wound up accepting with the Dodgers. The defending AL MVP is guaranteed $700MM on a 10-year contract, but $680MM of that money is deferred to be paid between 2034-43. MLB calculates the deal’s actual value around $460MM for competitive balance tax purposes. According to Zaidi, the Giants made clear they were willing to do the same thing.

“The proposal that was made was very comparable if not identical to what he wound up agreeing to,” the Giants baseball ops president said (relayed by Janie McCauley of the Associated Press). “We offered what would have been the biggest contract in major league history. I’m guessing we weren’t the only team that did that.”

Zaidi confirmed that Ohtani’s camp also lobbied for a heavily deferred contract in their negotiations (something he reportedly pursued with every team). “It was pitched to us in a similar way, the notion that he’s a player who’s got a ton of endorsement deals, makes a lot of money off the field, and it was sort of a vehicle to create some flexibility for the team — but also get to a really big number on the overall value of the contract, which is important in its own way,” he said (via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).

“But yeah, I mean, it’s certainly advantageous and you can understand why it was done. … The CBA is very clear there is no maximum or no limitations on deferring salary, that’s very black and white, so I don’t really have editorial comment. It’s something that if it’s pitched to us in a way that we think makes sense for the player and the team we would be open to it, and we certainly were in this case.”

Despite the “comparable if not identical” offer, Ohtani chose the Dodgers. Zaidi suggested that was likely due to a preference for remaining in Southern California, where the superstar has spent his entire career. It also seems fair to presume Ohtani viewed the Dodgers as better positioned than the Giants for sustained competitiveness over the coming decade.

The Giants have moved quickly in the wake of the Ohtani decision. They agreed to terms on a six-year, $113MM deal with KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to man center field. (The team has yet to confirm that deal.) Evenly distributing the salaries on Lee’s contract would bring San Francisco’s 2024 payroll projection to roughly $166MM, per Roster Resource. That’s about $22MM shy of last year’s season-opening payroll. They’re roughly $48MM below next year’s base luxury tax threshold.

There’s clearly still room for further acquisitions. Zaidi reiterated his desire to add another starting pitcher and a complement to 22-year-old Marco Luciano at shortstop (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). San Francisco is among the teams to meet with NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in recent days.

Red Sox Sign Cooper Criswell To Major League Contract

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The Red Sox announced agreement with right-hander Cooper Criswell on a major league contract. He’ll remain in the AL East after being non-tendered by the Rays last month. The move brings the Sox’s 40-man roster count to 39. Criswell, a Frontline client, is reportedly guaranteed $1MM.

Criswell occupied a depth role for Tampa Bay in 2023. He made 10 appearances as a long reliever, tossing 33 innings with a 5.73 ERA. Criswell didn’t miss many bats at the highest level, striking out a below-average 17.9% of opponents. He generated swinging strikes on only 7.7% of his offerings while averaging 88.4 MPH on his sinker.

The 27-year-old had a better season in Triple-A. Working mostly out of the rotation, he pitched to a 3.93 ERA in 84 2/3 frames. Criswell’s 21.6% strikeout rate wasn’t much worse than average and he kept the ball on the ground for over half the batted balls he allowed.

While it’s not overpowering stuff, the North Carolina product has plus control. He has done an excellent job avoiding free passes throughout his minor league career and walked only 7.3% of batters faced at the MLB level last season. Criswell has a four-pitch arsenal that allows him to work as a depth starter or long reliever.

Since he has a minor league option remaining, the Sox can freely move Criswell between Fenway Park and Triple-A Worcester for another year. They go a little above the league minimum salary and commit a 40-man roster spot to a player they clearly identified as a depth target. Criswell has yet to reach one year of MLB service, so the Red Sox could control him well into the future if he pitches well enough to hold that 40-man spot.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Red Sox and Criswell had agreed to a one-year, $1MM deal.

Endy Rodriguez Undergoes UCL Surgery, Will Miss 2024 Season

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Pirates catcher Endy Rodríguez underwent surgery to repair the UCL and flexor tendon in his throwing arm, the team announced. He won’t begin baseball activity for 10-12 months and will miss all of 2024.

Rodríguez had been the presumptive favorite to open the season as the Bucs’ primary catcher. Unfortunately, he suffered the freak injury on a swing while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic last month. Next year will go down as a lost season for the switch-hitter.

Regarded as one of the sport’s most talented catching prospects, Rodríguez made his big league debut not long after the All-Star Break. He served as Pittsburgh’s starter down the stretch despite struggling in his first look at MLB pitching. Over 57 games, the 23-year-old hit .220/.284/.328 with a trio of home runs.

While Rodríguez doesn’t have a ton of power, he has shown excellent strike zone discipline in the minors. He walked at an 11.4% clip while keeping his strikeout rate south of 15% in 315 plate appearances for Triple-A Indianapolis, where he hit .268/.356/.415. He combines that with rare athleticism for a catcher and solid defensive reviews from scouts. Statcast graded him as an average receiver in his first 410 big league innings but credited him with better than average arm strength.

Between Rodríguez and 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, Pittsburgh entered the season with two high-end catching prospects. The Pirates preferred Rodríguez defensively, keeping him behind the plate as a rookie while moving Davis almost full-time to right field. At last month’s GM Meetings, general manager Ben Cherington said the organization still planned to give Davis extended run behind the dish. Rodríguez’s unfortunate injury opens a path for the Louisville product to assume the #1 job.

Like Rodríguez, Davis made his MLB debut last summer but didn’t produce much at the plate. He hit .213/.302/.351 with seven longballs in his first 255 plate appearances. The 24-year-old also received well below-average defensive marks in right field. His MLB track record at catcher consists of two innings, but scouts have raised questions about his receiving skills in college and during his minor league tenure.

If the Pirates want Davis to continue developing defensively in Triple-A, their top in-house options are light-hitting defenders Ali Sánchez and Jason Delay. Veteran options available in free agency include Martín Maldonado, Tom Murphy, Austin Nola, Tucker Barnhart and old friend Jacob Stallings.

Zack Greinke Preparing To Pitch In 2024

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The representatives for free agent right-hander Zack Greinke are telling teams that he is preparing to pitch in 2024 and open to contract talks, per a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. He was reportedly still undecided on his future as recently as last month but it now seems he has tilted towards returning for another season on the mound.

Now 40 years old, Greinke is no longer the ace he was for most of his career, but he’s still a serviceable veteran capable of logging some solid innings. In each of the past two offseasons, he has signed one-year deals with the Royals, the club that gave him his start. Kansas City drafted him in 2002 and he pitched for them at the big league level from 2004 to 2010. He then went on an odyssey around the league, jumping to the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros, before returning to Kansas City last year.

The 2022 campaign saw Greinke throw 137 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He only struck out 12.5% of batters faced but limited walks to just a 4.6% clip and kept 41.3% of balls in play on the ground. His ERA jumped up to 5.06 this year, though his peripherals actually improved, with a 16.4% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 43.1% ground ball rate. But his strand rate went from 72.9% to 68.7% as a few more fly balls went over the fence, leading to a 4.74 FIP and 4.57 SIERA that paint a more flattering portrait.

It’s unclear how much interest Greinke would have in pitching for teams other than the Royals at this stage. He reportedly turned down similar offers from the Tigers and Twins prior to 2022, preferring to return to where his career began.

The Royals agreed to a deal with Seth Lugo today, adding him into the rotation mix alongside Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles, with guys like Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh, Ángel Zerpa and others also in the mix.

General manager J.J. Picollo previously stated that the club could have around $30MM to spend in the offseason. The deal for Lugo, along with deals for Will Smith and Chris Stratton, have resulted in $24MM spent on upgrading the 2024 club. That suggests the budget might be getting a little tight, but it’s possible they can stretch it a bit. Greinke was given a guarantee of $13MM last year and a base of $8.5MM here in 2023, but there was also $7.5MM available in incentives, with Greinke eventually unlocking $4.5MM of those.

Perhaps the two sides could find a similar incentive-laden deal for 2024, allowing the club to further strengthen their pitching depth for the coming season. For Greinke personally, his career strikeout total currently sits at 2,979, just 21 punchouts away from the 3,000 milestone that only 19 pitchers have reached.

Nationals Sign Dylan Floro To Major League Deal

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The Nationals announced that they have signed right-hander Dylan Floro to a one-year major league deal. They also announced their previously-reported pact with infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, infielder Jeter Downs was designated for assignment. Per Jim Bowden of The Athletic, Floro will make $2.25MM plus incentives. Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays that Floro will get an extra $1.25MM if he pitches in 60 games next year.

Floro, 33 this month, has plenty of major league success but is coming off a frustrating 2023 campaign. From 2018 to 2022, he tossed 252 2/3 innings for the Reds, Dodgers and Marlins with an earned run average of 2.96 in that time. He struck out 21.6% of hitters faced, issued walks at a 7.6% clip and kept 50.9% of balls in play on the ground.

He was back with the Fish to start 2023 but had an earned run average of 4.54 through 39 2/3 innings. He was then traded to the Twins for another struggling reliever in Jorge López, with both clubs hoping for a change-of-scenery boost. But Floro posted a 5.29 ERA in 17 innings for Minnesota before getting released as the season was winding down.

There’s no denying that those results were less than ideal, but it’s possible that the baseball gods were responsible for them. Floro’s peripherals were still strong, as he struck out 23.4% of batters for the season as a whole, walked just 6.9% and got grounders at a strong 54.4% rate. But his .401 batting average on balls in play and 65.3% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average. His 2.96 FIP and 3.34 SIERA suggest he may have been closer to his previous self than would appear on first glance. His 37.1% hard hit rate in 2023 was a career high but his 87.1 mph average exit velocity was actually lower than the year before.

The Nats are in rebuilding mode and aren’t expected to compete in 2024. They can give Floro a job in their bullpen and perhaps flip him to a contender at the deadline if he bounces back. This was a strategy the Nats deployed last season, signing Jeimer Candelario, Dominic Smith and Corey Dickerson to one-year deals. The deals for Smith and Dickerson didn’t work out, but Candelario bounced back nicely and was flipped to the Cubs at the deadline for two prospects.

Downs, 25, was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox about a year ago. Once a highly-touted prospect, he was part of the package that the Sox received in the Mookie Betts trade. But his performance in the past few years diminished his stock significantly. He played in just six games for the Nats in 2023, spending most of the year either on optional assignment or the injured list. In 60 minor league games this year, he walked in 16.6% of his plate appearances but also hit just three home runs. His .222/.363/.356 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 91.

The Nats will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and less than a year of service time. Given his past status as a top prospect, some club could put in a claim and wouldn’t even need to commit an active roster spot to him.

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