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The Opener: Orioles, Diamondbacks, Contracts

By Nick Deeds | December 8, 2023 at 8:05am CDT

With the Winter Meetings now in the rear view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will the Orioles change hands?

The Orioles are coming off a sensational season that saw them post an AL-best record of 101-61 as the core of young talent cultivated by GM Mike Elias and his front office in recent years finally came to fruition. While the club seems sure to once again be a force to be reckoned with in 2024, recent news created some off-the-field uncertainty for the Orioles’ regarding their future. Reporting indicated yesterday afternoon that David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was in talks to acquire the Orioles from the Angelos family. It’s unknown at what level those talks are occurring, but a change in ownership as the Orioles enter their competitive window could be a game changer for a club that (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) has posted a bottom-five payroll in the majors each of the past five seasons.

2. How much do the Diamondbacks have left to spend?

After reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $80MM contract with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to shore up the club’s rotation, the Diamondbacks have dipped their toes into uncharted territory with regards to their payroll. The reigning NL champions have never posted a payroll higher than $131MM (per Cot’s) and yet RosterResource now projects the club for a $133MM payroll in 2023 as things currently stand. Will GM Mike Hazen and his front office have more room to spend as they follow up on last year’s deep postseason run? If there is additional payroll space in Arizona, the club is reportedly interested in offensive additions, including at DH.

3. Contracts waiting to be finalized:

Several contracts from the winter meetings have not yet been finalized and formally announced by their clubs at this point. Of particular noted are the pending one-year deal between utilityman Nick Senzel and the Nationals as well as the reported three-year agreement between infielder Jeimer Candelario and the Reds, as the deals would leave Washington and Cincinnati without any remaining space on their 40-man roster. That’ll force them to make corresponding moves for future additions to the 40-man this offseason. Other deals that have not yet been made official include the one between Arizona and Rodriguez as well as yesterday’s pact between the Mets and right-hander Jorge Lopez.

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The Opener

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David Rubenstein Reportedly In Talks To Acquire Baltimore Orioles

By Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Carlyle Group founder David Rubenstein is in talks to acquire the Baltimore Orioles, according to a report from Gillian Tan of Bloomberg. The O’s are currently owned by the Angelos family.

It’s unclear at this point what stage the talks are at or if any kind of deal is close at this time. It also doesn’t seem like Rubenstein is the only person pursuing the club, as the report states that he is “among suitors pursuing a transaction.” Whether the Angelos family has pursued this or have merely been approached by prospective buyers isn’t clear, but there has been plenty of uncertainty in recent years about the future of the franchise.

Peter Angelos, now 94, was the principal investor of a group that purchased the franchise in 1993. After he collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve, larger roles were taken up by his wife Georgia and sons John and Lou. In June of 2022, reports emerged of infighting between the family about control of the club, with MLB approving John as the club’s “control person” in 2020. Multiple lawsuits were filed and the reporting of the legal battle revealed that Georgia had hired Goldman Sachs to look into a possible sale of the club. In February of this year, it was reported that the family members had reached an agreement to drop their lawsuits against each other. “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to,” John said on the matter in February.

Amid all of the drama over the ownership situation, there has also been an ongoing situation regarding Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The club’s lease on the facility runs through 2023. They had an opportunity to extend that for five years but chose in February not to do so. The hope was that they could work out a longer deal that would allow them to take advantage of a new Maryland law and borrow $600MM for stadium upgrades. Both John and Maryland Governor Wes Moore have made public statements expressing optimism about getting a new deal done.

In August it was reported that John was trying to leverage the stadium negotiations into acquiring public land. He reportedly envisioned developing a mixed-use area with commercial and retail spaces, emulating to The Battery and Truist Park where the Braves play in Georgia.

In September, John and Gov. Moore announced a new 30-year lease between the club and the state, though this was actually misleading. Reporting from the next day revealed that they had merely signed a memorandum of understanding, which was legally non-binding. The lease is still set to expire on December 31 and recent reporting has suggested the two sides may have to sign a short-term extension of a year or perhaps even go month-to-month, per Hayes Gardner of The Baltimore Sun, while working out a longer deal.

In addition to all of that, the club has made almost no long-term investments in any players. The O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since March of 2018, with was Alex Cobb’s four-year deal. Since then, the only contracts longer than one year the club has given out have been two-year extensions to John Means and Félix Bautista, both players that were already under club control and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. For much of that time, the club was in rebuilding mode. But even as they have returned to contention in the last two years, including winning the AL East with 101 wins in 2023, they have yet to make any kind of commitment to anything down the road.

Rubenstein, 74, is the co-founder and co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, a private equity company. He was born in Baltimore and Bloomberg estimates his net worth as $4.6 billion, though Forbes comes in below that at $3.6 billion. Forbes also currently values the Orioles franchise at $1.713 billion, about 10 times more than the $173MM price point when it was purchased in 1993.

To this point, it’s unclear if Rubenstein actually has a chance of acquiring the club or if he would approach any of the aforementioned issues differently. But if he were able to seal the deal and change the way the club operates, that would obviously be a franchise-altering development. It could also have ripple effects outside the O’s since they have an ongoing dispute with the Nationals over MASN and rights fees dating back to the Nats moving from Montreal to Washington in 2005. The Lerner family has been trying to sell the Nats in recent years but that MASN dispute has reportedly been a significant obstacle in doing so.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand David Rubenstein John Angelos Peter Angelos

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Yankees Notes: Soto, Judge, Yamamoto, Bullpen

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 11:05pm CDT

On the heels of last night’s blockbuster, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters this afternoon. He discussed a handful of topics on where the front office will proceed.

Cashman acknowledged the team has yet to have any conversations with Juan Soto’s camp regarding a long-term extension (relayed by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). The three-time All-Star is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $33MM salary. It seems all but a lock that Soto will choose to test free agency. He declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 and certainly wouldn’t sign for less than that now that he’s within a year of the open market.

The GM conceded “it’s a possible short term situation” with Soto. That didn’t deter the Yankees from making their all-in push to install him into the 2024 lineup alongside Aaron Judge. Between Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, they’ve added a trio of outfielders to better balance a lineup that struggled mightily when Judge was on the injured list. The 2022 AL MVP was out between June 4 and July 28 after injuring his right big toe in a collision with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium.

Judge played regularly from the time of his reinstatement through season’s end. While there wasn’t much doubt about his health status, Cashman confirmed today that the toe problem is fully behind him (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

The Soto return was pitching heavy. Michael King headlined a group that also included Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Double-A prospect Drew Thorpe. After parting with so much of their rotation depth to push that trade over the finish line, Cashman said the team will look to backfill on the pitching staff (passed along by The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty).

There’s no bigger pitching target than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The NPB ace is scheduled to meet with MLB teams next week. The Yankees are among a handful of teams that are serious suitors for the 25-year-old righty. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Yamamoto is the club’s priority at this point.

It seems the rotation is taking a bigger precedence than the bullpen. The Athletic reported last night that the Yankees were showing interest in free agent reliever Jordan Hicks. Feinsand downplays the club’s desire for a notable bullpen strike, however. While he confirms the Yankees like Hicks, he indicates a notable relief acquisition is more of a fallback possibility if Yamamoto signs elsewhere.

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New York Yankees Notes Aaron Judge Jordan Hicks Juan Soto Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Mariners Finalize Coaching Staff

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 10:38pm CDT

The Mariners announced their coaching staff for the 2024 season. Most significantly, they added Brant Brown as bench coach and offensive coordinator. Seattle also hired Tommy Joseph as an assistant hitting coach and converted co-hitting coach Tony Arnerich to bullpen coach.

It was reported last month that Brown would be joining Seattle’s staff in some capacity. It wasn’t initially clear what role he would hold. Brown had worked as hitting coach for the Marlins a season ago. He left Skip Schumaker’s staff for the promotion in Seattle.

Brown had spent some time as a hitting coach with the Dodgers before joining Miami. Prior to his stint in Los Angeles, he’d been with Seattle as a minor league hitting coordinator. He returns to the Mariners, where he had worked from 2012-16, as Scott Servais’ top assistant.

With Brown stepping in as the lead hitting voice, Arnerich makes the transition to the relief corps. Seattle lost last year’s bullpen coach, Stephen Vogt, who took over as Guardians manager. It’s a bit of an odd transition for Arnerich to move from the offense to the pitching staff, but Seattle clearly wanted to keep him around in some capacity.

Jarret DeHart, who had been a co-hitting coach with Arnerich last season, remains in that role and holds the additional title of director of hitting strategy. They’re joined by Joseph, who has his first MLB coaching job.

The 32-year-old played two seasons in the big leagues, working as the Phillies primary first baseman between 2016-17. He hit .247/.297/.460 in Philadelphia. Joseph also spent a year in Korea and played parts of four Triple-A campaigns. He retired as a player after the 2020 season and immediately jumped into coaching. Joseph worked with the Mets for two years and spent ’23 as hitting coach for the Giants’ High-A affiliate.

As with DeHart, much of the 2023 staff returns. Pete Woodworth is back as pitching coach. Kristopher Negrón and Manny Acta will coach first and third base, respectively. Perry Hill is at infield coach. Trent Blank is the director of pitching strategy, while Carson Vitale is serving as field coordinator.

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Seattle Mariners Brant Brown Jarret DeHart Kristopher Negron Manny Acta Perry Hill Pete Woodworth Tommy Joseph Tony Arnerich Trent Blank

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Mets To Sign Jorge Lopez

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 10:05pm CDT

The Mets are in agreement with free agent reliever Jorge López on a one-year contract, reports Carlos Rosa (X link). It’s a $2MM guarantee, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (on X).

It’s another low-cost bullpen flier for a New York team that has also brought in Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin this offseason. López had a rough 2023 campaign, allowing a 5.95 ERA in 59 innings. He split the year between a trio of clubs. The righty opened the year with the Twins, was flipped to the Marlins for Dylan Floro in a swap of struggling relievers, then landed with the Orioles on waivers.

The 30-year-old (31 in February) didn’t find much success at any of those stops. He was tagged for more than five earned runs per nine with all three teams. López struggled with home runs in Minnesota and Baltimore and posted generally lackluster strikeout and walk numbers. His strikeout rate rebounded in his 12-inning stint with the O’s but sat below 18% in Minnesota and Miami.

Overall, López concluded the 2023 campaign with a modest 18.4% strikeout percentage. His swinging strike rate sat at only 9.3%. The Puerto Rico native had also struggled late in the 2022 campaign after being traded from Baltimore to Minnesota. Since that deadline deal, he carries a 5.54 ERA through 81 2/3 innings.

That makes it moderately surprising that López secured a major league contract. The Mets still clearly remain intrigued by the form he showed in the first half of the ’22 campaign. He had tossed 48 1/3 frames of 1.68 ERA ball with a near-28% strikeout rate for the Orioles before being traded. López saved 19 games in that time and earned an All-Star nod.

While his production has plummeted in recent years, his velocity has not. He averaged 96.8 MPH on his sinker last season and just above 84 MPH on his breaking ball. The sinker velocity is down only slightly from the 97.7 MPH he’d brandished in 2022; his curveball speed is exactly the same. The Mets will try to harness that stuff and find better results than López has managed over the past 18 months.

With over five years of MLB service, López can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. He’ll almost certainly get a spot in the season-opening middle relief corps. The Mets are in the third tier of luxury tax penalization and will pay the tax for the third straight season in 2024. As a result, they’re taxed at a 95% rate. The total cost amounts to a $3.9MM roll of the dice.

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New York Mets Transactions Jorge Lopez

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Astros, Wander Suero Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 8:20pm CDT

The Astros have signed reliever Wander Suero to a minor league contract, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll presumably get a look in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee.

Suero spent the 2023 season with the Dodgers. He signed an offseason minor league pact and was twice selected onto the big league roster. The 32-year-old righty pitched in five MLB contests, allowing seven runs over eight innings. Suero spent the remainder of the season in Triple-A, turning in a 3.26 ERA through 49 2/3 frames in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

While pitching in the minors, he punched out almost 26% of opponents. His 11.2% walk rate was higher than ideal. Suero had a better track record of strike-throwing before this season. He has walked a serviceable 8.6% of opponents over parts of five Triple-A campaigns, where he has a 3.59 ERA.

Suero has also pitched at the major league level in five different years. Aside from his limited time with the Dodgers, he’d otherwise only appeared for the Nationals. He was a durable and generally effective bullpen arm between 2018-20 before struggling to a 6.33 ERA in 2021.

The Astros have seen a trio of middle relievers — Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Hector Neris — reach free agency. That could open an opportunity in the middle innings for a non-roster veteran like Suero to battle for a roster spot.

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Houston Astros Transactions Wander Suero

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NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines Sign Jimmy Cordero

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 8:08pm CDT

Relief pitcher Jimmy Cordero signed a contract with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The team announced the move yesterday.

Cordero reached free agency last month after being non-tendered by the Yankees. On July 5, MLB had leveled a season-ending suspension after determining that Cordero had violated the domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

The right-hander pitched in 31 games for New York last season. He posted a 3.86 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate across 32 2/3 innings. In parts of four major league seasons between four teams, he owns a 4.36 ERA.

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Nippon Professional Baseball Transactions Jimmy Cordero

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Astros Sign Victor Caratini To Two-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 7:10pm CDT

The Astros announced the signing of free agent catcher Víctor Caratini to a two-year contract. It’s a reported $12MM guarantee for the ACES client.

Houston general manager Dana Brown has made clear the team was looking for a #2 catcher. The Astros are turning the starting job over to 25-year-old Yainer Diaz, who posted an impressive .282/.308/.538 line as a rookie. Diaz still worked in something of a timeshare with veteran Martín Maldonado in 2023 — the young player also took a fair number of reps at designated hitter — but the Astros declared Diaz their top catcher from the outset of the offseason.

Backing up a very talented young catcher is familiar territory for Caratini, who played that role with the Brewers in 2023. Working behind William Contreras, Caratini played in 62 games and tallied 226 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had spent the last two seasons with Milwaukee overall. The Brewers had acquired him from the Padres shortly before the 2022 campaign. Caratini slumped to a .199/.300/.342 line during his first year but rebounded with a solid .259/.327/.383 showing a season ago.

A first-time free agent, the Puerto Rico native turned 30 in August. As one of the youngest catchers in the class, it’s not a surprise that he secured a multi-year pact. While he doesn’t bring much power to the table, Caratini has solid bat-to-ball skills. He struck out in fewer than 20% of his plate appearances last season while making contact on over 80% of his swings (a few points above the 76.4% league average).

On the other side of the ball, Caratini’s best trait is his pitch framing. Statcast has credited him as better than average at securing strikes throughout his career. He has rated reasonably well at blocking pitches in the dirt as well, although his arm strength is fringy. Of the 54 catchers with 20+ throws to second base this year, only Logan O’Hoppe and Yasmani Grandal had longer pop times on average.

Caratini nevertheless brings some positives on both sides of the ball. He’s a better offensive player than Maldonado, who now is almost certainly headed elsewhere after spending the last four and a half seasons in Houston.

If the salaries are distributed evenly, the contract brings the Astros’ payroll projection to roughly $222MM (via Roster Resource). More notably, the $6MM average annual value puts Houston’s estimated luxury tax tab right at the $237MM base threshold. The Astros have tended to hover around the tax line, aligning with Brown’s comments throughout the offseason that the club is working with a fairly limited amount of financial flexibility. Now that backup catcher has been solidified, they figure to turn their attention to the middle relief group.

Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Astros were in agreement with Caratini. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the two-year term, while Mark Feinsand and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com were first with the $12MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Transactions Victor Caratini

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Padres, Giants Showing Interest In Harrison Bader

By Anthony Franco | December 7, 2023 at 6:50pm CDT

The Giants and Padres are among the teams showing interest in free agent center fielder Harrison Bader, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Both teams also remain involved on KBO star Jung Hoo Lee.

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi called center field a priority at the start of the offseason. The Padres created a pair of outfield vacancies with last night’s blockbuster that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx.

The Giants have a wider array of possibilities tied to their greater financial flexibility. San Francisco’s 2024 payroll projects around $40MM below this past season’s opening mark, as calculated by Roster Resource. That makes San Francisco a legitimate threat to land any player on the open market, including top center fielder Cody Bellinger.

A run at Bellinger isn’t likely for the Padres, but the Soto trade clears some room to attack the middle tiers of the market. Roster Resource pegs the Friars’ payroll around $156MM, while their luxury tax number (which uses contracts’ average salaries) sits in the $209MM range. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this morning the Friars prefer to keep their tax number below next year’s $237MM lowest threshold.

That’d be more than enough to accommodate Bader. He’s a rebound target after perhaps the worst season of his career. The 29-year-old hit .232/.274/.348 in 344 plate appearances with the Yankees and Reds. That marked his personal low on-base and slugging marks. Bader had a trio of stints on the injured list, missing time with oblique, hamstring and groin strains.

While that’s clearly not how he envisioned his platform year playing out, Bader had combined for a league average .259/.311/.414 slash between 2021-22. He’s an excellent defender in center field and went 20-23 on stolen base attempts in 98 contests this year. Bader is an asset against left-handed pitching, carrying a .262/.330/.494 slash in his career. His .236/.304/.364 mark versus righty arms is far less imposing, but Bader’s speed and glove can keep him in the lineup in unfavorable platoon situations.

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San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Harrison Bader

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Orioles Interested In Extensions For Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

By Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2023 at 5:17pm CDT

Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings yesterday and was asked if the Orioles had reached out about extension talks with his clients Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. “Only once or twice a day,” Boras quipped, with Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner among those who passed his comments along. “Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike [Elias] and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

Boras and his clients have a reputation of generally being averse to extensions, though that’s not to say they never happen. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Boras has negotiated extensions for clients such as Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Lance McCullers Jr. and more.

Both Henderson and Holliday are fairly inexperienced but extensions for players at this stage of their careers are becoming more common. Henderson has 184 games under his belt, but has thrived in those, winning American League Rookie of the Year here in 2023. Holliday has yet to make his major league debut but is the consensus top prospect in the sport.

In recent years, players like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have received notable extensions prior to even making it to the big leagues. Jackson Chourio, who currently falls just behind Holliday on those prospect lists, recently set a new benchmark for players with zero service time. He and the Brewers agreed to an eight-year, $82MM extension with performance bonuses and a pair of club options. There have also been notable deals given to players with a small amount of major league experience, with each of Corbin Carroll, Wander Franco and Julio Rodríguez getting nine-figure guarantees.

For the Orioles, they would have to change strategy to get a deal done with either player. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager in November of 2018, the largest guarantee they have given to anyone is the one-year, $13MM deal they gave to Craig Kimbrel this week. The only extensions they have signed were two-year deals for John Means and Félix Bautista. In both cases, the player was rehabbing Tommy John surgery and was already under club control for the two seasons covered by the contract.

To be fair, the O’s have been aggressively rebuilding for much of the Elias tenure, so big spending wasn’t warranted. But they won 83 games in 2022 and still kept this modest last winter. The current offseason is still ramping up, so maybe there’s a bold move or two to come, but there’s been nothing too out-of-character just yet.

Due to that lack of spending, the club has the financial means to theoretically do anything it wants. The only commitments on the books for 2025 are $1MM owed to Bautista and another $1MM for the buyout on Kimbrel’s option. There’s nothing committed for 2026. Per the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had a payroll as high as $164MM in 2017, which put them in the top 10 league-wide. But much has changed since then.

Owner Peter Angelos collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and his son John Angelos later was named “control person” for the club. Since then, the club has been rebuilding and keeping player costs to a minimum. Beyond that, they haven’t been able to agree to a new lease for their home ballpark, with the current agreement set to expire at the end of this month. It was reported earlier today that David Rubenstein is attempting to purchase the club, though it’s unclear if he has a chance of succeeding or how long that would take.

There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty around the franchise so it’s an open question as to how much latitude Elias even has to commit future dollars to either of these players or any of the other on the roster. The aggressive tanking of a few years ago helped them load up their farm system, which has led to their current club being filled with talented youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and more. Getting one or more of those players to put pen to paper and stay in Baltimore for a long time would be a sensible strategy, but the likelihood of such a deal actually happening isn’t obvious at the moment.

In the short term, Elias will have to think about putting the best possible team on the field for 2024 and recently spoke to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball about that. They are set to have an outfield of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, though there are some different options for a fourth outfielder, with Elias naming Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna as suitors for such a gig.

Kjerstad had a solid showing last year, tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before getting into 13 major league contests. The club probably wants to find him regular playing time somewhere, and he has played some first base before, but Elias shot down the notion of him moving there on a regular basis. “I don’t have designs on him becoming a full-time first baseman,” he said. “I think it’s something more that we’re trying to get it to a point where it’s in his back pocket and we can tap into it a couple of days a week.” The club has Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn as options for first base and designated hitter, so it’s not even a guarantee that there’s a cleaner path to playing time for Kjerstad there.

Despite all the crowding, the O’s have some openness to bringing in another outfielder, though it seems the odds of that happening are low. “I still see a ton of playing time and a lot of at-bats outside of our three primary outfielders,” Elias said. “Right now, this is up for grabs. These guys, I don’t think any of them have really proven it yet over a long period of time in the majors, so we’re cognizant of that. If we can find external insurance or external help in this department, it’s not going to close the doors for those guys, and it wouldn’t be unwelcome from our end, either. Competition is good. Depth is good. These seasons are so unpredictable. Odds are you’ll get some injuries, so we have to prepare for all that. We’ll talk to free agents that might be a fit for joining our outfield mix, but we have high hopes for the names that I mentioned.”

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Baltimore Orioles Gunnar Henderson Heston Kjerstad Jackson Holliday

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