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Breslow: Red Sox Willing To Trade Controllable Starting Pitching

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The Red Sox began the offseason looking to add to the rotation. They’ve added a couple of arms and might now have enough rotation depth to trade some away. “We’ve got pitching depth, based on some of the inbound calls that we’ve received over the last couple of weeks,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said this week, per Sean McAdam of MassLive. “I think teams have recognized there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching. If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”

The Sox have already made a couple of notable trades to bolster the rotation. They acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. Those two now slot into the rotation with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. That only leaves one spot for a group that includes Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Hunter Dobbins, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison and others.

No team gets through a full season using just five pitchers these days, so the Sox should want to hold onto some depth. But it’s possible the right trade emerges where the Sox feel they can move someone out of this group in order to upgrade another part of the roster while leaving the rotation picture still in decent shape.

It’s been reported that the Astros have interest in Early and Tolle. McAdams notes that the Sox have also fielded some interest in Crawford, Sandoval and Dobbins, though he doesn’t specify which teams made those calls. Crawford and Sandoval are in somewhat analogous situations, as both missed the 2025 season due to injuries. Though both pitchers have some major league success, it’s possible the Sox didn’t want to rely on them in 2026. Now that they have each been bumped down the depth chart in Boston, they could make more sense on another roster.

Crawford has thrown 392 1/3 innings for the Sox, allowing 4.57 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate are both a bit better than league average. He began 2025 on the injured list due to patellar tendinopathy in his right knee. Then right wrist pain led to surgery in June.

Missing the entire season obviously tamps down his trade value but his cost and control should help. He qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and made $2.75MM in 2025. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season often make the same salary the following year, so that could happen with Crawford in 2026. He could then be retained via arbitration through 2028.

Sandoval isn’t as cheap or controllable but his major league track record is longer. He required UCL surgery while with the Angels in 2024. He was non-tendered and then signed a two-year, $18.25MM deal with the Red Sox. He tried to get back on a big league mound late in 2025 but wasn’t able to do so. His deal was backloaded, so he is owed $12.75MM in 2026 and will be a free agent after that.

That’s a less appealing contractual situation than Crawford but Sandoval’s pre-injury track record is strong. He gave the Angels 536 innings with a 4.01 ERA. His 22.7% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate are a bit worse than Crawford’s but Sandoval also got ground balls at a strong 47.9% clip.

Dobbins is a different situation, as he has a much smaller track record but is therefore cheaper and more controllable. He has just 61 big league innings under his belt, with a 4.13 ERA. His 2025 season was ended by an ACL tear in July. He has less than a year of service time, meaning he’s still years away from even qualifying for arbitration and even farther from free agency. He also has options and can be kept in the minors as depth.

Given his limited big league action, an interested club would have to bet on his minor league track record. Across 2023 and 2024, he tossed 238 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.36 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate.

Given the chatter around Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Tolle and Early, there are many ways the Red Sox could go. Many expect the Sox to also trade one of Jarren Duran , Wilyer Abreu or Masataka Yoshida. They could also trade Triston Casas if they add a first baseman. Their outfield seems set but they have lots of ways they could upgrade the infield, with shortstop the only spot that seems locked down right now. Given all the possible permutations, there are infinite paths ahead.

One possibility that keeps coming up is Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. He has already been in plenty of rumors, including a connection to the Sox. McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive write that the two clubs have had some talks about Marte, with the Snakes focused on controllable starting pitching as the return.

It’s a sensible enough framework. Arizona traded Merrill Kelly at last year’s deadline and lost Zac Gallen to free agency. They recently signed Michael Soroka but that’s not enough to satisfy their needs. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reported after the Soroka deal that the Diamondbacks are still looking for more arms. Owner Ken Kendrick has suggested the payroll should be dropping a bit relative to 2025, so turning to the trade market is logical.

That doesn’t mean a Marte-for-pitching deal is likely. Arizona’s general manager Mike Hazen has repeatedly tried to downplay the Marte rumors and did so again this week on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. He said that the Diamondbacks have been receiving trade interest in Marte annually for years. He attributed the interest and rumors to Marte’s superstar abilities and relatively team-friendly contract.

Over the past three years, Marte has slashed .283/.368/.519 for a 140 wRC+. His 11.2% walk rate an 16.7% strikeout rate are both strong figures. His glovework at second base is generally considered solid. FanGraphs credited him with 15.3 wins above replacement over that three-year span, making him one of the top 15 position players in the league.

Relative to other superstars, he is underpaid. He is guaranteed $102.5MM over the next six years, an average annual value of just over $17MM, in an age where most star players are earning more than double that on an annual basis. There are also notable deferrals in Marte’s deal, making it even more attractive.

Time will tell if anyone blows away the Snakes with a strong enough offer to pluck Marte away. The Sox are a possibility, given the arms they have on hand, though Marte has also been connected to the Mariners, Pirates, Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Blue Jays. If Boston can’t land Marte, they should have plenty of other options since starting pitching is in high demand around the league. McAdam reports that the Sox have had talks with at least three teams aside from the Diamondbacks.

Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images

Patrick Sandoval, Liam Hendriks Doubtful To Return In 2025

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August 4: Hendriks spoke to members of the media today, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive and Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. The righty expressed confidence that he will be back this year and that it was “a slip of the tongue” when Cora said otherwise. Hendriks also clarified that he was diagnosed with a hernia but the diagnosis was changed to an abdominal strain.

August 3: The 2025 season may be over for two members of the Red Sox pitching staff and 60-day injured list.  In speaking with the Boston Globe’s Tim Healey and other reporters today, Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and manager Alex Cora both indicated that left-hander Patrick Sandoval and right-hander Liam Hendriks aren’t likely to pitch this year.

Sandoval underwent an internal brace procedure on his left UCL last July, so the southpaw was guaranteed to need at least a full year of recovery time.  Because brace procedures generally require 12-13 months of rehab rather than the 13-15 month timelines associated with full Tommy John procedures, there was some thought that Sandoval could potentially make it back before the end of the 2025 campaign.

However, Cora indicated last week that Sandoval’s throwing progression had been scaled back from bullpen sessions to just games of catch.  The setback has now seemingly elongated Sandoval’s timeline to the point that he almost surely won’t be fully ramped up (after bullpens, simulated games, minor league rehab games, etc.) to be ready before the end of September.

The Angels chose to non-tender Sandoval last winter, and the Red Sox signed him to a two-year, $18.25MM free agent deal.  Just $5.5MM of that salary was owed for 2025, as the idea was that Sandoval would be missing at least the first four months of the season anyway.  While this outcome isn’t unexpected, it is surely a disappointment to Sandoval that his UCL injury has continued to leave him on the sidelines.

Hendriks can sympathize, as the closer’s battle with cancer and then a Tommy John surgery limited him to five MLB innings in 2023 and then cost him the entirety of the 2024 season.  Similar to Sandoval, Hendriks’ hopes of a late-season return were dashed by some continued arm soreness, and then his return in 2025 was delayed by elbow inflammation during Spring Training.  Upon finally returning to the mound and making his official Red Sox debut, Hendriks posted a 6.59 ERA over 14 games and 13 2/3 innings before hip inflammation sent him back to the IL in late May.

Hendriks signed a two-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox in February 2024 that, like Sandoval’s contract, was backloaded.  He earned $2MM while rehabbing in 2024 and then is earning $6MM this year, plus there is a $2MM buyout of a $12MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  The Sox are a lock to decline their end of the option given Hendriks’ continued injury owes, and the former three-time All-Star will probably have to settle for a minor league deal in free agency this coming offseason.

Red Sox Place Marcelo Mayer On IL; Ceddanne Rafaela To Play More Second Base

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The Red Sox announced today that infielder Marcelo Mayer has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to July 24th, with a right wrist sprain. Infielder David Hamilton has been recalled as the corresponding move.

At this point, the severity of Mayer’s sprain is still being determined. “We’re gathering information,” Álex Cora responded when asked if surgery was a consideration, per Tim Healey of The Boston Globe. “We’ll get more over the weekend, during the week. Whenever we get to the point to see what’s going to happen, we’ll let you know.”

Time will tell if Mayer is facing a brief absence or an extended one. While the Sox surely don’t want Mayer to miss any time, there is a silver lining of his absence, as it seems it will help out a bit with their outfield logjam. Cora told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive, that the club will frequently have Ceddanne Rafaela at second base. That will lead to a regular outfield alignment of Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, with Masataka Yoshida as the designated hitter.

The outfield picture, and the position player group in general, has been cluttered for most of the season. The Sox signed Alex Bregman in the winter and put him at third base, moving Rafael Devers to the designated hitter spot. That left Yoshida stuck on the IL, even though he was healthy enough to hit. His shoulder hadn’t recovered enough from offseason surgery to throw, so he couldn’t play the field. Anthony was also blocked, since the club had Duran, Rafaela and Abreu in the outfield.

A lot has changed since earlier in the year. The relationship between the team and Devers soured, which led to him being traded to the Giants. That opened up the DH spot for Yoshida. Anthony came up while Abreu had an oblique strain and has quickly found big league success. Abreu eventually returned from the IL, which jammed things up a bit again. It left four outfielders and Yoshida jockeying for four lineup spots.

Rafaela has some middle infield experience but the Sox seemed reluctant to move him there, which was understandable since he’s actually an elite defensive center fielder, whereas Duran’s glovework may be better suited to left field. More recently, they have softened that stance, with Rafaela taking the keystone here and there with Duran in center.

It now seems that could be the regular alignment for as long as Mayer is out. Perhaps it’s not ideal defensively but it will get the Sox out of a situation where one of their key players is on the bench every night.

It’s also possible that the situation further decreases the chances of the Sox dealing an outfielder. Due to that logjam, it had been speculated that they might trade one of their outfielders in order to bolster another part of the roster. Duran’s name came up in rumors most often for this kind of scenario, though recent reporting has suggested the Sox weren’t particularly interested in such a plan. Perhaps Rafaela’s move to the infield makes it even less likely.

In another bit of Red Sox news, Cora also provided an ominous update on lefty Patrick Sandoval, per Cotillo and Healey. The southpaw has been progressing slower than expected and has been downgraded from bullpens to just playing catch. His return this year is now doubtful.

Sandoval underwent UCL surgery last June while with the Angels. They non-tendered him and sent him into free agency. The Sox signed him to a two-year, backloaded deal with an $18.25MM guarantee. He is making $5.5MM this year and will make $12.75MMM next year.  The Sox knew that they wouldn’t get anything out of Sandoval in the first half of 2025 but likely hoped for some kind of second-half return.

That now seems less and less likely. Even if he were to continue throwing bullpens soon, he would then have to ramp up to live batting practice and/or simulated games before going out on a rehab assignment. A rehab assignment usually is capped at 30 days for a pitcher but it’s common for guys recovering from UCL surgery to push that closer to two months. Given that there’s barely two months left in the season, it’s understandable why Cora would say that the clock is running out.

Photo courtesy of Bob DeChiara, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Duran, Casas, Dobbins

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The Padres’ reported interest in Jarren Duran has drawn plenty of attention, but Sean McAdam of MassLive.com downplays the potential fit between the two clubs. McAdam writes that he, too, has heard the Friars have checked in on Duran, but the Sox aren’t shopping the 2024 All-Star. With a crowded outfield mix and uber-prospect Roman Anthony seemingly ready for an MLB look, the Sox aren’t turning interested parties away when they inquire about Duran, but there’s an understandably high asking price.

With regard to the Padres specifically, McAdam touches on some of the difficulties regarding the fit that Darragh McDonald and I discussed on this week’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast. The Red Sox are likely to want immediate MLB help at either the infield corners or in the starting rotation, and San Diego is lacking in those areas. Their top two starters, Dylan Cease and Michael King, are free agents at season’s end. They don’t have any high-end, MLB-ready pitching prospects around which to build a deal, nor do they have the type of controllable corner infield help Boston would covet. The Padres’ infield is composed of expensive veterans, all of whom except Luis Arraez are on long-term deals; Arraez, a free agent at season’s end, isn’t going to get the ball rolling in talks when Duran is controlled through 2028.

The Padres do have two of MLB’s very best prospects in shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas, but both are teenagers who are years from being ready for the majors. They’re also widely viewed as untouchable in trades, or close to it. As such, even if the Red Sox got to the point where they were serious about shopping Duran around, it seems likely that another outfield-needy team would be able to put together a more compelling package to sway the Sox.

Short-term help at the corner infield wouldn’t be a need at Fenway Park if the Sox had a healthy Triston Casas who was hitting as he did in 2023-24, when he batted a combined .256/.357/.480 (126 wRC+) with 37 homers in 745 plate appearances. Casas struggled for much of this season’s first three weeks, however, and suffered a season-ending knee injury when he’d begun to show signs of breaking out of that slump (.261/.414/.522 in eight games leading up to the injury).

Casas chatted with Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic about the injury, his timeline for a recovery and both the physical and mental difficulties of going through a rehab process that’ll span 10 or more months. An exact timeline hasn’t yet been established, but Casas said no doctors have told him to expect a yearlong absence to this point. He’s working toward a goal of being ready for next year’s spring training. For now, he’s still on crutches for at least two more weeks.

Casas calls the ruptured patellar tendon the biggest physical challenge he’s had to overcome in his career but noted that last year’s rib cage fractures may have been more mentally taxing. With that injury, he felt strong but had to simply wait to allow his ribs to heal before being cleared to swing at full strength, whereas he has more measured checkpoints and benchmarks in his rehab with the current injury. He added that former Red Sox right-hander Garrett Richards, who also suffered a ruptured patellar tendon late in his career, has reached out and been a valuable mentor as he navigates the early stages of his rehab. Sox fans, in particular, will want to check out McCaffrey’s piece for several thoughtful quotes from Casas about the injury, his rehab and his general outlook as he sets off on a long road to recovery.

Turning to the starting pitching group, the Sox optioned Richard Fitts earlier this week. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay that Hunter Dobbins will draw into the rotation now. Various pitching injuries have thrust Dobbins to the majors this year and he has managed to perform decently in his first big league action. He has logged 44 1/3 innings this year over seven starts and two relief appearances, having allowed 4.06 earned runs per nine. His 19.6% strikeout rate is a bit low but he has only walked 5.6% of batters faced while getting grounders on 44.3% of balls in play.

Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have the other four rotation spots for now. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval and Chris Murphy are all on the injured list and could rejoin the rotation mix at some point. Sandoval, who had UCL surgery last year, tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he has thrown six bullpens but still isn’t close to facing live hitters. Crawford is on the IL due to knee discomfort but is now also dealing with wrist pain, per Christopher Smith of MassLive. Houck is on the shelf due to a flexor pronator strain and is still at the playing catch stage, per Smith. Murphy had Tommy John surgery in April of last year and his current status is unclear.

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman To Three-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Bregman’s deal.  To create roster space, Patrick Sandoval was moved to the 60-day injured list.  Sandoval underwent an internal brace procedure on his left UCL last June, so he was already expected to be out of action until the second half of the 2025 season.  Speier also provided some added details on the contract’s structure, writing that $20MM will be deferred in each of the three seasons.  Bregman will begin receiving these deferred payments in 10 years’ time.

Feb. 13: The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman’s three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the AAV will be calculated as $31.7MM for CBT purposes. Speier adds that there’s a $5MM signing bonus, followed by a $35MM salary in 2025, then $40MM salaries in the final two seasons.

Feb. 12: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120MM deal. The Boras Corporation client receives massive $40MM salaries in each season, though an unreported amount of that money is deferred. Bregman can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has yet to officially announce the signing.

Boston gets the best remaining free agent by offering a massive annual sum. Bregman reportedly had a standing six-year offer valued at $156MM from the Astros for most of the offseason. The Tigers reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM proposal, while the Cubs offered a $120MM guarantee over a four-year term. As of last month, Bregman remained committed to a long-term deal. The Sox’s willingness to offer one of the biggest AAVs in league history changed the calculus.

It marks the end of an illustrious tenure in Houston. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman was in the majors within a year of coming out of LSU. He immediately locked down third base. He hit .284/.352/.475 over his first full big league campaign, helping the Astros to their first World Series title in 2017. He was one of the top handful of players in baseball over the next two seasons. Bregman secured consecutive top five finishes in AL MVP balloting while combining for a .291/.409/.561 slash with more walks than strikeouts between 2018-19.

Bregman, 31 in March, successively hit 31 and 41 home runs over that stretch. His power production has ticked down since the ’19 campaign, which was the most homer-heavy season in league history. Bregman has hit between 23 and 26 homers in each of the past three seasons. He’d continued to post excellent on-base numbers up through 2023, though his OBP dropped last year as his walks plummeted.

The two-time All-Star hit .260/.315/.453 across 634 trips to the plate in 2024. He had by far his lowest on-base percentage since his half-season as a rookie nearly a decade ago. That was almost entirely because of a drop in free passes. Bregman walked in 6.9% of his plate appearances, nearly halving his typical 12-13% rates. He remained incredibly difficult to punch out (13.6% strikeout rate) and narrowly established a new career high with a 40.1% hard contact percentage.

Bregman started the season very slowly. He hit .216/.283/.294 with only one home run through the end of April. While his power started to rebound in May, he reached base at a meager .276 clip that month. He entered June with a .219/.280/.372 slash line that was beginning to raise questions about his earning power. He put those to rest with a fantastic finish to the season. Bregman hit .284/.337/.500 with 20 doubles and 19 home runs across his final 398 plate appearances. While the walks remained down, he managed much better batted ball results in the second half.

Over eight-plus seasons with the Astros, Bregman hit .272/.366/.483 with 191 home runs. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his Houston tenure around 40 wins above replacement. He won a Silver Slugger and was MVP runner-up in 2019 and won his first career Gold Glove last season. He has been an instrumental piece of Houston’s sustained postseason success and World Series wins in 2017 and ’23. His swing is perfectly suited for the short left field at Houston’s home park. Bregman certainly hasn’t been a product of the Crawford Boxes, though. He has been essentially the same hitter on the road (.275/.362/.489) and at home (.270/.369/.476).

Bregman will have a similar home setup with the Green Monster at Fenway. He’ll reunite with Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach in 2017. While the Sox’s front office had trepidation about adding another long-term infield commitment alongside Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, they were willing to pay handsomely in the short term.

Boston had roughly $210MM in luxury tax commitments going into this evening, as calculated by RosterResource. A $40MM average annual value for Bregman would push that close to $250MM. The actual AAV won’t be quite so high, as the deferrals will drop the net present value to an extent. It’s likely that the Sox will still end up beyond the $241MM luxury tax threshold. They didn’t pay the CBT last season, so they’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $241MM and $261MM. Even a true $40MM AAV for Bregman would only come with a $1.8MM tax hit for the Sox.

It’s the culmination of an exciting offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff. The Sox opened the winter looking to add upside in their rotation. They eschewed long-term pitching investments, instead acquiring Garrett Crochet for four prospects while bringing in Walker Buehler on a one-year, $21.05MM deal. Boston signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year contract midway through his rehab from Tommy John surgery and made a pair of one-year pickups in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson).

Adding a right-handed bat was the one offseason goal that the Sox had not accomplished. While an outfielder may have been a cleaner roster fit, Bregman’s willingness to move off his longtime position makes this workable. The Sox intend to play him at second base, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That made him a better fit than Nolan Arenado, who has been connected to the Sox in trade rumors for much of the winter.

Devers has been vocal about preferring to stick at third base. Bregman is a superior defender at the hot corner, but he should be athletic enough to move to the keystone for at least one season. He’d likely have spent most of his career in the middle infield had he not broken in with a team that had a Jose Altuve/Carlos Correa pairing.

That blocks the path to playing time for top prospect Kristian Campbell in the short term. The 22-year-old had a monster minor league season (.330/.439/.558 between three levels) to put himself in consideration for the second base job. Campbell seems likelier to begin the year in Triple-A Worcester now. He has played both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots in the minors, though, so the Sox should be able to find playing time for him somewhere as injuries arise throughout the year.

Campbell’s presence is probably a big reason the Red Sox kept this to a short-term commitment. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reports that Boston wasn’t interested in going past three guaranteed years. The tradeoff involves one of the largest per-year commitments in MLB history. The pre-deferral $40MM AAV is tied for the sixth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest of this winter behind Juan Soto’s $51MM AAV and ties the Aaron Judge deal for third in history among position players (trailing Shohei Ohtani and Soto).

Bregman was the final unsigned free agent who had declined a qualifying offer. Boston surrenders their second-round pick (54th overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their international signing bonus pool in 2026. They’re getting a compensatory pick about 20 spots later with Nick Pivetta signing with San Diego, so the draft capital comes out relatively close to a wash. As luxury tax payors, the Astros get the lowest compensation pick for Bregman’s departure — a selection after the fourth round, which lands around 137th overall.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Bregman was signing with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the presence of deferrals. Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2 had the even salary structure. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Patrick Sandoval Discusses Surgery Recovery, Non-Tender

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Left-hander Patrick Sandoval has been through a lot in the past year and recently discussed the twists and turns he’s been through with the MassLive Fenway Rundown podcast, as summarized by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

The southpaw underwent surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament in July of last year and perhaps the most notable thing he mentioned this week is that he had internal brace surgery and not a full Tommy John procedure. When his surgery was reported last summer, it wasn’t 100% clear if he would require a full UCL reconstruction or the internal brace alternative.

Some in the media just use “Tommy John surgery” as a blanket term to cover any kind of UCL surgery but the distinction can be notable. The internal brace surgery can sometimes allow a player to return to play a couple of months quicker than with a full reconstruction. That’s often not a huge difference but it could make an impact in Sandoval’s case. A full Tommy John surgery usually takes about 14 months to recover from, a timeline that would have pushed Sandoval to a return around September. But since he had the internal brace alternative, it seems he and the Red Sox are a bit more optimistic about what he can contribute in the second half this year.

That timeline also reflects back on the curious decision by the Angels to non-tender him, which was a bit of a surprise when it happened. They could have retained Sandoval via arbitration through both 2025 and 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $5.9MM this year. Since he wasn’t going to be able to pitch much in 2025, that would limit his ability to raise his salary in 2026, meaning he probably could have been retained for the two years for a total of $12-15MM.

That wouldn’t have been a bad price for a pitcher as talented as Sandoval, even if his recovery eventually hit a snag and it was mostly just for his 2026 contributions. Over the 2021 to 2024 seasons, Sandoval tossed 460 innings, allowing 3.80 earned runs per nine. His 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.

But the Angels decided to just move on instead, not tendering Sandoval a contract and sending him to free agency, which caught Sandoval off-guard. “I wasn’t expecting it at all,” he said. “I got a call like two minutes before the tender deadline. My agent had let me know that they decided not to tender me. I didn’t really know how to feel. I understood, me coming back from injury, they might not want to pay me that money to just sit and rehab for a year. And they have the right to do that.”

Though the Angels were apparently not keen on the idea of paying for Sandoval’s recovery, other teams were. “The whole free agent experience was insane,” Sandoval says. “You’re not expecting it. I’m thinking I still have two more years until I get that opportunity to choose which team I want to play for. The whole recruiting process or whatever you want to call it, it kind of brought me back to like the high school days of having colleges come and talk to you.”

Sandoval reportedly received some interest from the Phillies but ultimately signed with the Red Sox, a two-year deal that guarantees him $18.25MM, in the form of $5.5MM this year and $12.75MM next year. That’s likely a few million more than he would have made if the Angels just kept him around, so it seems to have worked out for the lefty, though it may have been initially disorienting.

The Red Sox seem to be going into 2025 with a number of wild cards on the pitching staff. Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck both had breakout seasons in 2024 but pushed their respective workloads to new heights. Walker Buehler came back from a lengthy surgery absence in 2024 but with middling results. Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks missed all of last year due to their own surgeries. Garrett Whitlock missed most of it for the same reason.

They figure to open the season with a rotation mix of Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Giolito will jump in there, perhaps as soon as Opening Day, with Sandoval likely a few months behind him.

MLBTR Podcast: Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Sign Patrick Sandoval

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The Red Sox announced the signing of lefty Patrick Sandoval to a two-year free agent deal. The Wasserman client is reportedly guaranteed $18.25MM. He’ll make $5.5MM in 2025 and $12.75MMM in 2026. Boston’s 40-man roster is now full. Sandoval is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, performed in June. He’ll miss at least the first half of the 2025 season, if not a bit more, but could be a late-season option in Boston and should be a member of their 2026 rotation.

Sandoval’s two-year guarantee makes the Angels’ decision to non-tender him and his $5.9MM projected salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) look all the more dubious. Even if Sandoval had missed all of the 2025 season, he’d have been in line to merely repeat that $5.9MM salary — a total of $11.8MM. There’s no way he would’ve secured a nearly $6.5MM raise on that projected 2025 salary heading into the 2026 season.

The Angels presumably shopped Sandoval around prior to cutting him loose, and market circumstances have changed since that time. Still, recent two-year deals for Tommy John rehabbers on similar timelines (e.g. Tyler Mahle, German Marquez) show that there could eventually have been trade interest in the lefty, but the Halos instead opted for immediate salary flexibility. Perhaps that made it easier for them to sign Yusei Kikuchi on a three-year pact, but Sandoval’s deal with the Red Sox shows that he’d very likely have had at least modest trade value had the Halos tendered him a contract and continued to explore the market for his services.

Though his exact timetable for a return to a big league mound can’t be known this far along in the rehab process, Sandoval is a quality arm who’ll slot into the middle of the Boston rotation whenever he’s cleared. Just days prior to his injury, I took a look at the statistical similarities between Sandoval and another lefty — popular trade target Jesus Luzardo. Dating back to 2021, Sandoval carries a 3.80 ERA with roughly average strikeout numbers (22.6%) and somewhat heavy 10.2% walk rate.

Sandoval’s command isn’t great and never has been, but that number is skewed a bit by an 11.3% mark from 2023 that looks like a clear outlier. Sandoval posted a 9.3% walk rate in 2021, 2022 and 2024. It’s still not good, but it’s only about one percentage point north of league average. He sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer and sinker alike, complementing those fastballs with a slider that misses bats and a changeup that helps him keep righties at bay. He does still carry a notable platoon split, but right-handed hitters haven’t exactly crushed him (.263/.344/.391) and lefties practically shouldn’t bother swinging (.195/.274/.324).

Sandoval isn’t a star but has proven himself to be a capable third or fourth starter, even in a contending rotation. He’ll obviously open the season on the injured list but will eventually give Boston another arm to join a starting mix that includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and, at some point, Lucas Giolito. Like Sandoval, Giolito is on the mend from UCL surgery, but his was performed last March so he should be back a few months sooner. Garrett Whitlock gives the Sox another potential rotation arm who’s on the mend from a Tommy John procedure, though he could factor into either the ’pen or the rotation.

The Red Sox could very well add another starting pitcher. They’ve been tied to Corbin Burnes on the free agent market and have also reportedly looked into the availability of Mariners righty Luis Castillo and Padres righty Dylan Cease. With several arms on the mend from surgery and a number of starters with only one full season of rotation experience under their belts (Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Bello), another arm feels prudent — even if it’s not a front-of-the-rotation type.

With Sandoval now in tow, RosterResource projects the Red Sox for a $155MM payroll and about $191MM worth of luxury tax obligations. They’re nowhere close to the $241MM tax threshold, thanks in no small part to going the trade route for their first impactful rotation addition of the winter (Crochet). That leaves ample opportunity for the Sox to bring in another arm and continue to poke around the markets for Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hernandez and other high-profile targets.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Red Sox and Sandoval had agreed to a two-year, $18.25MM contract. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier had the salary breakdown.

Phillies Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Patrick Sandoval

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According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.

Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.

From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.

Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.

Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.

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