NL East Notes: McCann, Johnson, Manuel
Tonight's look at the National League East..
- In the wake of being eliminated from the playoffs, Braves catcher Brian McCann says that he's trying not to think about the possibility of playing elsewhere next year, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Rangers should all have varying levels of interest and some say that it's a near guarantee that he's going to wind up leaving Atlanta. Recently, our own Tim Dierkes profiled the highly-coveted catcher.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (Twitter link) says there's no chance of the Marlins bringing Josh Johnson back on a one-year deal, even if he comes cheap after a down season that was ended prematurely by elbow surgery.
- Charlie Manuel is mulling a return to the Phillies in an advisory position, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Manuel has had a standing offer to rejoin the organization since being fired as manager, but the 69-year-old was hoping to land a desirable managerial gig.
NL East Links: Nationals, Bowa, Mets, Harang
The Braves acquired Freddy Garcia from the Orioles in late August in a trade that generated few headlines, yet the veteran right-hander posted a 1.65 ERA in 27 1/3 September innings (three relief appearances, three starts). Now, Garcia will take the mound to save Atlanta's season in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw, who is starting on short rest for the first time in his career.
Here are some notes from around the NL East…
- The bullpen was a disappointment for the Nationals in 2013 and improving the relief corps "is one of the Nationals' biggest offseason priorities," James Wagner of the Washington Post writes. The Nats will particularly be looking for left-handed relief help. Wagner suggests that the team could possibly trade setup man Tyler Clippard due to his rising price tag in the arbitration process. Clippard earned $4MM last season and has two more years of arb-eligibility remaining.
- Larry Bowa is close to a deal to become the Phillies' new bench coach, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury reports. Bowa managed the Phillies from 2001-04, was a coach with the team from 1989-96 and played in Philadelphia from 1970-81, winning five Gold Gloves and winning a World Series in 1980. Bowa and new Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg were actually traded together from the Phils to the Cubs in 1982.
- Marlins third base prospect Zack Cox is profiled by MLB.com's Bernie Pleskoff, who writes that Cox needs to show some consistency in 2014. Cox was taken by the Cardinals with the 25th overall pick of the 2010 draft, then traded to the Marlins for Edward Mujica at the 2012 deadline. Cox was ranked as amongst the top 100 prospects in the sport by Baseball America before the 2011 and 2012 seasons, though he has struggled over the last two years and has been surpassed by Colin Moran as Miami's third baseman of the future.
- This season, the Mets became the first Major League team to work with KinaTrax, a company that tracks pitchers' bio-mechanics via motion-capture technology, Metsblog.com's Matthew Cerrone writes. The purpose is to gather information on how their pitchers' mechanics develop over time, so the Mets can better evaluate their long-term health. The Orioles and Brewers are the only other MLB clubs investing in bio-mechanical evaluations of their players.
- Aaron Harang is a good fit for the Mets on a one-year deal, Metsblog.com's Michael Baron opines. Harang is the type of veteran pitcher that the Mets seem likely to pursue on a short-term contract, as MLBTR's Jeff Todd wrote in his Offseason Outlook entry on the Mets earlier today.
NL East Links: Cishek, Byrd, Ausmus, Phillies
The Marlins were featured as part of MLBTR's Arbitration Eligibles series two days ago, and according to Matt Swartz's projection model, Steve Cishek is set to earn $3.2MM in his first year of eligibility. MLB.com's Joe Frisaro wonders if such a number could make Cishek a trade candidate, as "the organization is probably asking itself if it needs a $3.2MM closer at this point." Cishek will get more expensive in the future, as he will receive an extra arb year as a Super Two player. Still, Miami has shown that it wants to keep Cishek, as the club turned down all trade offers for the stopper last summer before the deadline.
Here are some more items from around the NL East…
- Marlon Byrd would love to return to the Mets this winter, the Pirates outfielder tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. After Byrd was traded to the Buccos in August, Byrd talked to Mets GM Sandy Alderson and told him "thank you for the opportunity at the beginning of the year and thank you for the opportunity to play for a winner. I told him, ‘If you want me back, I would love to come back.’ ” Byrd credits the Mets for giving him an opportunity to revive his career after serving a 50-game PED suspension last year.
- Brad Ausmus has been mentioned as a candidate for the Nationals' manager job, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports. The Nats haven't yet asked the Padres for permission to interview Ausmus, who is an assistant to baseball operations in San Diego. Kilgore notes that the Nationals still seem to be in the early stages of their search, as bench coach Randy Knorr and Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams have yet to be contacted about interviews.
- The Phillies under Ruben Amaro have been known for making big offseason splashes but thanks to the team's existing large payroll commitments, "this will be the offseason of the value play," writes David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. Murphy lists five key elements to the Phils' winter plans, including noting that the club "can't have any untouchables."
- In other Phillies news from earlier today, they outrighted four players off their 40-man roster and MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at Philadelphia's arbitration-eligible players,
Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Phillies are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Kyle Kendrick (5.159): $6.6MM
- John Lannan (5.046): $3MM
- Antonio Bastardo (4.054): $2MM
- John Mayberry (3.095): $1.7MM
- Ben Revere (2.149, Super Two): $1.5MM
- Kevin Frandsen (4.151): $1.3MM
- Roger Bernadina (4.146): $1.3MM
- Casper Wells (3.040): $700K
Revere's season ended on July 13th with a broken foot, but the 25-year-old center fielder is secure for next year. Bastardo's season was cut short by a Biogenesis suspension, but he's expected to play in winter ball and will be tendered a contract for next year. Frandsen trailed off significantly over the season's final three months, but is cheap enough to retain as a reserve.
Regarding Kendrick, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on Monday, "I don't know why people are asking about that. We will [bring him back]," according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. People were probably asking because as a guy with a 4.70 ERA, Kendrick's projected salary isn't much of a bargain. Plus, he posted a 6.04 ERA over his final 17 starts and was shut down in September with a shoulder injury.
Lannan is likely to be cut loose, as a knee injury cost him more than half the season and he wasn't effective otherwise. Mayberry is a "definite non-tender candidate," wrote Gelb yesterday, as the Phillies may slide Darin Ruf into his fourth outfielder role. Mayberry, acquired by the Phillies in November '08, hit .227/.286/.391 this year. Bernadina will likely be gone, after a lackluster showing in 27 games. I expect Wells to be cut loose also.
If the Phillies tender contracts to Kendrick, Bastardo, Revere, and Frandsen, they'll be looking at an estimated $11.4MM for four arbitration eligible players.
Phillies Outright Zach Miner, Pete Orr
The Phillies announced that they have outrighted right-hander Zach Miner, infielder Pete Orr, lefty Mauricio Robles and utilityman Michael Martinez off their 40-man roster. Miner and Orr are of particular note, as each would've had to be retained via arbitration to remain with the organization.
Miner pitched 28 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball for the Phillies with 6.3 K/9, 5.3 BB/9 and a strong 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. A veteran of parts of five Major League seasons, Miner has four years, 78 days of Major League service time. The 31-year-old posted a 3.90 ERA in 85 1/3 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2013 and has a career ERA of 4.25 in 385 2/3 innings between the Phils and Tigers.
Orr collected just 22 appearances in his third straight season in the Phillies organization and posted a .684 OPS in Triple-A. To this point in his career, he's compiled four years, 145 days of Major League service time between the Phillies, Nationals and Braves. The 34-year-old is a career .257/.289/.328 hitter in 738 plate appearances.
Martinez, 30, has received 396 plate appearances at the big league level despite slashing just .187/.234/.261. Robles posted a sub-2.00 ERA betwen Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors, which would make it surprising that he cleared waivers to some, but the 24-year-old averaged six walks per nine innings.
The Phillies also lost Raul Valdes to the Astros and Tyler Cloyd to the Indians via waiver claims yesterday, meaning they've dropped six players from their 40-man roster in the past 24 hours.
Indians Notes: Giambi, Cabrera, Kazmir, Smith, Cloyd
The Indians' magical season came to end at the hands of Alex Cobb and the Rays last night, as the Tribe fell 4-0 in the American League Wild Card game. Here's the latest on the Indians, whose focus will now shift to the offseason…
- Jason Giambi told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he would like to play one more season, making an even 20 for his career (Twitter link). The Giambino hit just .183/.282/.371 in 216 plate appearances this season, but he did belt nine homers, including a dramatic pair of walk-off shots, the latter of which has to be considered one of the highlights of the season for the team.
- General manager Chris Antonetti brought the team to the playoffs by making bold moves and should continue to be bold by trading Asdrubal Cabrera this winter, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Indians are set to lose Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to free agency, and Pluto writes that some pitching depth could be added if Antonetti can strike a deal with a team like the Cardinals. Mike Aviles is capable of bridging the gap between the declining Cabrera and top prospect Francisco Lindor, writes Pluto.
- Kazmir and right-hander Joe Smith both told reporters, including MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, that they hope to return to the Indians in 2014 (Twitter links). Kazmir added that he hopes to pick up where he left off in 2013, and Smith stated, "I don't want that to be my last game."
- Twenty-four teams passed on Phillies right-hander Tyler Cloyd before the Indians claimed him off waivers yesterday, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That Cloyd was waived despite having two options left shows that the team was never particularly enamored with him, adds Gelb. Cloyd was part of the proposed package for Astros reliever Wilton Lopez last offseason before the Phils backed off due to concerns over Lopez's elbow.
Indians Claim Tyler Cloyd, Designate Clay Rapada
The Indians have claimed right-hander Tyler Cloyd off waivers from the Phillies and designated left-hander Clay Rapada for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the team announced via Twitter.
The 26-year-old Cloyd was rocked for a 6.56 ERA in 60 1/3 innings for the Phillies this season, averaging 6.1 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings with a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. A 4.49 FIP suggests that Cloyd's abnormally high .365 batting average on balls in play and 64.5 percent strand rate helped to partially inflate his ERA. There's only so much room for optimism though, as his 86.3 mph average fastball velocity is one of the lowest you'll see from a right-handed starter. He has a 3.39 ERA and 3.6 K/BB ratio in 254 2/3 career innings at the Triple-A level.
Rapada, 32, pitched to a 1.12 ERA with 20 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 innings at Triple-A Columbus while in the Cleveland organization. He held lefties to a .188/.240/.261 batting line in the minors this season, which is par for the course for Rapada, against whom lefties have hit just .164/.255/.231 in 257 big league plate appearances. Rapada gets torched by right-handers though, having allowed a .345/.464/.611 line and clearly establishing himself as a pure left-handed specialist.
Astros Claim Raul Valdes, Decline Humber’s Option
The Astros have issued a press release announcing that they have claimed left-hander Raul Valdes off waivers from the Phillies and declined their 2014 club option for right-hander Philip Humber. Humber is one of four players that has been outrighted off the team's 40-man roster; the others are infielder Brandon Laird and catchers Cody Clark and Matt Pagnozzi. Perhaps more noteworthy is the fact that top prospect Jonathan Singleton has been added to the team's 40-man roster to fill one of the new vacancies.
Valdes, 35, posted an alarming 7.46 ERA in 35 innings for the Phillies this season, but his peripheral numbers suggest that he was far better than that unsightly number. Valdes averaged 9.5 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings, leading advanced metrics like FIP (4.39), xFIP (3.74) and SIERA (3.10) to project better days on the horizon. He also held opposing lefties to a .229/.275/.375 line.
Houston held a $3MM option on Humber, but declining it proved to be an easy decision. The former No. 3 overall pick turned in a 7.90 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings for the Astros this season after signing for just $800K last offseason. Humber was designated for assignment in May and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Oklahoma City, where posted a 4.68 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
Laird hit .169/.224/.423 with five homers in 76 plate appearances for the Astros in 2013. Pagnozzi, who was acquired from the Braves at the beginning of September, went 3-for-21 in 22 plate appearances for the Astros in the season's final month. The 32-year-old Clark, a career minor leaguer, reached the Majors at last in 2013 and recorded his first big league hit with the Astros. Clark went 4-for-38 with Houston and hit .212/.250/.265 in 46 minor league contests this season.
Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz
Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label. He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.
Strengths/Pros
Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454). Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters. On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran. He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time. FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez. Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.
How about 2013? Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher. And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months. A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.
Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.
A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign. Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.
Weaknesses/Cons
As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms. Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year? One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training. It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year. Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January. His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.
On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.
Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average. Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so. A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.
Personal
Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos. He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.
Market
Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market. Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again. According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back. He knows we'd like to bring him back." The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies. Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense. They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference. If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.
Expected Contract
Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years. According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM. Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career. Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal. I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal. Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal. Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass. In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Notes: Coaching Staff, Ruiz, Amaro, Halladay
The Phillies have already found their manager for the next three years (or so they hope) in Ryne Sandberg, but there was more work to be done. Earlier today, the team announced that longtime pitching coach Rich Dubee will not have his contract renewed and that Paul Fournier will be the team's new Major League strength and conditioning coordinator. Fournier had served the same role in the Phils' minor league system and has also been a high-ranking conditioning coach for the Marlins and Expos. Here's some more on Phillies-related news…
- Carlos Ruiz hopes to return to Philadelphia in 2014 and finish his career with the Phillies, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. wouldn't comment as to whether or not he'd begun discussions with Ruiz's agent, Marc Kilgman, but the Phillies are known to be prioritizing catching help this offseason.
- Amaro admitted to reporters, including MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, that he feels pressure to get the Phillies back to their winning ways. “I always feel under the gun,” Amaro said. “I put myself under the gun. I don’t listen to a lot of it. But listen, I’m the GM of the club, so I fully expect to take heat for it. I’m the one making the decisions on player personnel. I’m accountable for the things that have happened. I didn’t have a very good year; our team didn’t have a very good year."
- The GM went on to say that while they'd like to fill the right field hole with a quality right-handed hitter, they could go out and get a left-handed batter instead if that's what's out there. Amaro doesn't feel Darin Ruf is an everyday option in right field.
- Amaro reiterated his desire to see Roy Halladay back with the Phillies but before the two sides can try and work out a risk-controlled deal, the pitcher may want to see if the Phillies will be in a position to contend before re-signing.
- Because of missteps in player evaluations in recent years, Amaro says that they will "build more analytics" into the gameplan going forward, Zolecki writes.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.