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Jesus Luzardo Discusses Return From Injury

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Phillies newly-acquired starter Jesús Luzardo chatted with the Philadelphia beat over Zoom on Monday. The southpaw finished the 2024 season on the injured list but indicated he’s going into next season at full strength.

“I feel 100%. I’ve felt 100% the whole offseason,” Luzardo said. “Last year, the back was really the problem. Now that we’ve got that all figured out, thankfully everything’s back to normal.” He added that he has had a typical offseason, so it seems fair to assume he’ll be a full go for Spring Training. A lumbar stress reaction sent Luzardo to the 15-day IL in the second half of June. It didn’t take long before Miami transferred him to the 60-day injured list. The Marlins shut him down for good in early August.

Luzardo’s final season with the Marlins was a disappointment. The 27-year-old lefty struggled to an even 5.00 earned run average over 12 starts. He struck out a slightly below-average 21.2% of batters faced. Luzardo missed a couple weeks early in the year with elbow tightness, but the back proved much more problematic.

A fully healthy version of Luzardo is a #2 or #3 caliber starter. He showed that upside in 2023. Luzardo turned in a 3.58 ERA while striking out 28.1% of opponents across 178 2/3 innings. Luzardo averaged nearly 97 MPH on his heater and missed plenty of bats with both his slider and changeup. His 14.1% overall swinging strike rate ranked sixth among qualified starting pitchers.

Philadelphia sent highly-regarded shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba to Miami as the headliner of the Luzardo trade. A return to his ’23 form would arguably give Philadelphia the best front five in MLB. He’ll slot behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and alongside Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez in Rob Thomson’s staff. The depth isn’t great, though the Phils have added Joe Ross on a $4MM free agent deal to join Taijuan Walker as candidates for swing roles.

Pitching prospect Andrew Painter could eventually be a factor, but that won’t happen within the season’s first month or two. Philadelphia is being very cautious with the touted 21-year-old righty, whom they’ve seemingly kept untouchable in trade talks. Painter is working back from July 2023 Tommy John surgery. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Matt Gelb of the Athletic) last week that the Phils won’t have Painter pitch in games during Spring Training. He’ll continue throwing on the side in the spring and will subsequently need to build into game shape in the minors.

Painter made six appearances and tallied 15 2/3 innings in last year’s Arizona Fall League. That’s his only game action since the conclusion of the 2022 season. The Phillies will need to keep a close watch on his workload and certainly envision Painter as a factor in a potential pennant race. It’s understandable they’d prefer to start him slowly and concentrate on saving his bullets for what they hope will be another playoff push. That’s especially true now that Luzardo is in the fold, allowing them to open the season with both Ross and Walker in the ’pen if their top five arms are healthy.

Phillies Sign Guillo Zuniga, Nabil Crismatt To Minor League Deals

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The Phillies signed relievers Nabil Crismatt and Guillo Zuñiga to minor league contracts earlier this month. Both deals are reflected on the team’s transaction log at MLB.com and the players’ respective social media accounts.

Both pitchers logged limited major league action in 2024. Crismatt, who turned 30 on Wednesday, made five appearances for the Dodgers early in the year. He spent the remainder of the season in Triple-A, which he divided between three organizations. Crismatt pitched in the minors between Los Angeles, San Diego and Texas. He had a tough showing in the Pacific Coast League, allowing 5.81 earned runs per nine through 79 innings. Crismatt struck out a slightly below-average 20.7% of batters faced against a decent 7.5% walk rate.

The Colombian-born hurler has struggled over six Triple-A seasons. His major league track record is quite a bit better. Crismatt owns a 3.71 earned run average through parts of five MLB campaigns. Most of that production came during a strong two-year run in San Diego between 2021-22. He has logged 20 major league innings over the past two seasons.

Zuñiga, 26, debuted with two appearances for the Cardinals in 2023. St. Louis dealt him to the Angels in a cash deal in February. Zuñiga made 15 appearances for the Halos. He tossed 17 2/3 innings, allowing 10 runs with 12 strikeouts and eight walks. Zuñiga pitched 26 innings at the Triple-A level, where he turned in a 5.19 ERA with a well below-average 14.3% strikeout rate. The Angels designated him for assignment when they acquired Travis d’Arnaud and released him a few days later.

This year’s drop in strikeouts marked a bizarre change from the bulk of Zuñiga’s minor league career. He’d fanned a quarter of batters faced over 29 appearances in Triple-A during the ’23 season. His strikeout rate frequently pushed 30% during his time in the low minors. Zuñiga averaged 97 MPH with his four-seam fastball this year and sat just under 99 MPH during his limited MLB stint with the Cardinals in 2023.

Phillies, Payton Henry Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies and catcher Payton Henry agreed to a minor league contract earlier this month, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Henry confirmed the deal on social media.

Henry, 27, appeared in the majors with the Marlins between 2021-22. He suited up in 20 games, hitting .186 with one extra-base hit (a double) through 51 trips to the plate. The former sixth-round draftee has spent the past two seasons in Triple-A. He played 2023 in the Milwaukee system and spent this year with the Toronto organization.

The righty-hitting Henry was limited to 27 games with Triple-A Buffalo this past season. He was injured in a frightening play on May 31. Henry was catching when an opposing hitter accidentally struck him on the head with a backswing. Henry was removed on a cart and transported to a Syracuse, New York, hospital. The game was cancelled at that point. Fortunately, Henry was released the following day.

After a three-month stay on the injured list, he returned to action with the Bisons in the middle of September. He played in three games to finish the season. While he didn’t have time to put himself in position for an MLB call, getting back on the field checks a significant box going into Spring Training.

Henry is likely to open next season in Triple-A, where he’s now a career .266/.332/.414 hitter. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán are each on the 40-man roster and potential backups behind J.T. Realmuto. They’ll remain ahead of Henry and Paul McIntosh, whom the Phils acquired over the weekend in the Jesús Luzardo trade, on the depth chart.

Phillies Sign Joe Ross

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The Phillies and Joe Ross have agreed to a one-year contract, the team confirmed. Matt Gelb of The Athletic, who was first to report the signing, adds that Ross will receive a $4MM salary. The right-hander, who has experience as a starter and a reliever, is expected to take on a swingman role in Philadelphia. To free up a space for Ross on the 40-man roster, the Phillies have designated fellow righty José Cuas for assignment.

Ross, 32 in May, spent the 2024 season with the Brewers. He opened the year in Milwaukee’s rotation, making nine starts with a 4.50 ERA and 4.65 SIERA through mid-May. Unfortunately, a lower back strain landed him on the IL for more than two months in the middle of the year. He made one poor start upon his return before moving into the bullpen.

It was there that Ross thrived, pitching to a 1.67 ERA and 3.89 SIERA in 27 innings of work. Although his fastball velocity didn’t increase by much, he raised his strikeout rate from 18.7% as a starter to 24.1% as a reliever. He also did an excellent job limiting extra-base hits. While the righty gave up more fly balls and fewer grounders, he dropped his opponents’ isolated power from .134 to .060. In addition, Ross provided the Brewers bullpen with valuable length; he threw more than one inning in 10 of his 15 relief appearances.

Ultimately, the sample size of Ross’s 2024 season is relatively small. He pitched 47 innings as a starter and 27 out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, the sample size of his 2022 and ’23 seasons is non-existent. He landed on the IL with a UCL injury in August 2021, underwent his second career Tommy John surgery in May 2022, and did not pitch in the majors again until this past year.

From 2015-21, Ross was a capable pitcher when healthy. In 76 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Nationals, he put up a 4.26 ERA and an identical 4.26 SIERA. In 2024, he showed he could still be that arm. Across 74 innings, he produced a respectable 3.77 ERA and 4.38 SIERA. He went at least five innings in seven of his 10 starts and held his opponents scoreless in 12 of his 15 relief appearances. It’s easy to see what the Phillies like in a guy who can provide depth for the rotation and length for the bullpen. At the same time, it’s easy to see why fans might be nervous. Ross has a lengthy injury history that has prevented him from ever pitching more than 27 games or 108 innings in a season. That upside is why he landed a major league deal; his injury history is why it’s only a $4MM guarantee, pocket change for a Phillies team with a projected $289MM payroll (per RosterResource).

In a media availability last week, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said he was looking for a swingman type who could pitch out of both the rotation and the bullpen. However, after the team’s surprise acquisition of starter Jesús Luzardo, it was unclear if Dombrowski was still seeking another pitcher. With a projected rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Luzardo, the Phillies could have opted to use Taijuan Walker as their swingman. The veteran lost his starting job this past year amidst a career-worst season. In 19 appearances (15 starts) he pitched to a 7.10 ERA and 5.25 SIERA in 83 2/3 innings of work.

With Ross in the fold, it’s hard to guess what Walker’s role will be with the Phillies in 2025 – if he’ll have one at all. The seven locks for the 2025 bullpen are José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, and Ross. That only leaves one spot left on the pitching staff. The Phillies could give that spot to Walker, but they might prefer to go with a higher-upside young arm rather than carrying two long men. Max Lazar, whom Dombrowski mentioned in his media availability last week, is one name on the 40-man roster to keep in mind. As for any further outside additions, the POBO suggested he’s likely done supplementing to the bullpen (per Gelb). For now, Walker will prepare to compete for a bullpen job and provide additional starting depth in case of injury. Still, one has to presume the Phillies are looking for any way to offload his contract this winter. He is set to earn $36MM over the next two seasons.

Cuas did not appear in a game with the Phillies in 2024. After beginning his career with the Royals in 2022, he was traded to the Cubs at the deadline in 2023. Chicago DFA’d him this past June, and the Blue Jays claimed him off of waivers. Toronto would DFA him as well before the end of the year, and although the Phillies claimed him in September, they optioned him to Triple-A and never called him up. The right-hander has a career 4.37 ERA and 4.43 SIERA in 119 1/3 innings. He also has two option years remaining. That should help him find a new club to sign him as a depth arm for 2025.

Phillies Designate Tyler Gilbert For Assignment

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The Phillies have designated left-hander Tyler Gilbert for assignment, per a team announcement. Gilbert’s 40-man roster spot will go to fellow southpaw Jesús Luzardo, who was acquired by the Phillies in a trade with the Marlins earlier today.

The news is an unwelcome birthday present for Gilbert, who turned 31 today. The lefty pitched just 8 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year after signing a minor league deal with the Reds last winter and being traded to Philadelphia back in May. He was selected to the active roster for the stretch run and pitched decently with a 3.24 ERA despite a 4.85 FIP. That brief stint with Philadelphia was actually something of a reunion, as the Phillies actually drafted Gilbert in the sixth round of the 2015 draft. He was surrendered to the Diamondbacks in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft, however, and spent parts of three seasons in Arizona after making his debut with the club back in 2021.

Gilbert’s 2021 campaign is actually what the lefty is best known for. After being added to the club’s roster in early August and making a handful of relief appearances, the lefty actually tossed a no-hitter against the Padres in his first career start. The lefty struck out five and walked three across those nine hitless innings of work and remained in the club’s rotation down the stretch. He struggled to a 4.61 ERA in his final five starts of the year, however, and did not crack the club’s Opening Day rotation in 2022. The southpaw pitched to a lackluster 5.23 ERA and 5.10 FIP over his final two years with the Diamondbacks before being outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster last November.

Traditionally, the Phillies would have one week to either work out a trade involving Gilbert or attempt to pass him through waivers. With that said, that clock has put on pause over the holidays in previous seasons, so it’s possible that a resolution for Gilbert won’t ultimately be announced until the new year. Should he clear waivers successfully, Gilbert would have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency after previously been outrighted in his career. Should he elect free agency, he’d be an interesting depth option from the left side for clubs in need of pitching depth but would likely be limited to minor league deals due to his limited track record of success at the big league level.

Phillies Acquire Jesus Luzardo

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The Phillies made a big acquisition to their rotation, announcing they’ve acquired Jesús Luzardo from the Marlins. It’s a two-for-two trade sending Luzardo and minor league catcher Paul McIntosh to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Starlyn Caba and outfield prospect Emaarion Boyd.

Luzardo, 27, is coming off something of a lost season but was among the most coveted starters available on the trade market as recently as last winter. The southpaw made just 12 starts in 2024 due to a lumbar stress reaction and struggled when he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 5.00 ERA (91 ERA+) in 66 2/3 innings of work. While Luzardo maintained a solid 8% walk rate, his 21.2% strikeout rate was far below his career norms and his fastball velocity was more than a tick below where it was in 2023.

Even with those warts, however, it’s easy to see why Luzardo would be an attractive addition to the rotation for the Phillies. In 279 innings of work for the Marlins between 2022 and ’23, Luzardo dominated to the tune of a 3.48 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP. His 96.7 mph average fastball velocity was near the top of the scale for left-handed starting pitchers, and his 28.7% strikeout rate ranked eighth among starters with at least 250 innings of work in that time, sandwiched between Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan.

While there’s no guarantee Luzardo will be able to recapture that ace-level production he flashed prior to his injured 2024 season, the Phillies won’t need to rely on him for front-end production. Instead, Luzardo joins an incredibly deep Phillies rotation that already features Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez. Even a fully healthy and effective Luzardo would slot in as the #2 starter in that rotation between Wheeler and Nola, and even if the southpaw merely pitches to the peripherals (4.23 FIP, 4.33 SIERA) he posted during his injury-marred 2024 campaign he’d be a noticeable upgrade over Taijuan Walker, who pitched to an ugly 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work this past season.

The Phillies have been known to have interest in adding rotation help this winter, though that was generally expected to come in the form of a depth piece who could pitch out of the bullpen or give Walker competition for the fifth starter spot, not unlike the club’s signing of right-hander Spencer Turnbull last winter. The acquisition of a player with Luzardo’s talent and pedigree obviously goes well beyond that, however, and surely pushes Walker into a long relief role to open the season assuming the rest of the rotation is healthy.

Adding Luzardo also eases the club’s long-term need for rotation help, as he’s under team control for the next two seasons. With Suarez scheduled to hit free agency following the 2025 season, it’s possible that the addition of Luzardo allows the Phillies to rely on some combination of Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter to round out their 2026 rotation. That would push the need for an additional starter off to the 2026-27 offseason, at which point both Walker and Luzardo himself will be eligible for free agency.

For now, though, Luzardo is a cost-controlled addition to the Phillies’ rotation who figures to raise the group’s already impressive ceiling considerably. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Luzardo for an arbitration salary of just $6MM in 2025, a figure that pushes the Phillies’ payroll to the $285MM range and their luxury tax payroll up to $304MM per RosterResource. Notably, that pushes them past the highest $301MM tax threshold for next season, at which point the club is taxed at a 110% rate on any overages beyond $301MM in addition to their highest pick in the 2026 draft being pushed back ten spots.

In terms of the actual financial cost, then, bringing Luzardo into the fold figures to cost the Phillies something closer to $10.5MM between the southpaw’s salary and the tax bill that comes with it. It’s an unprecedented level of spending for the Phillies, and it’s not clear how much more room the club will have to manuever as it seeks to make further upgrades. Perhaps that’s why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested the club was unlikely to make further major additions earlier this week, with a swingman for the pitching staff and a bench piece for the lineup highlighted as the club’s remaining priorities. The addition of Luzardo likely eliminates the need for a swingman by pushing Walker into that role, of course.

For the Marlins, the prize in this deal is Caba. Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s #81 prospect in the game and #54 at Baseball America, Caba just celebrated his 19th birthday earlier this month and looked solid in complex league play this year with a .254/.427/.335 slash line. While he offered little power, he walked more than he struck out and stole 37 bases in 45 attempts across 225 plate appearances at the level. Caba was promoted to Single-A down the stretch and struggled badly with a .179/.304/.190 slash line in 115 trips to the plate, though he still recorded more walks (16) than strikeouts (15). While he’s roundly projected for below-average power by prospecting services, he’s regarded as having the potential to be a special defender at shortstop and his impressive knack for plate discipline should give him a solid offensive floor.

Boyd, meanwhile, was the Phillies’ 11th-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 21-year-old hit just .239/.317/.331 in 400 trips to the plate at the High-A level in 2024, though he’s stolen 83 bases over the past two seasons due to elite speed and is regarded as a potentially plus defender in center field due to his wheels. That was enough to make him the #23 prospect in the Phillies organization, according to Pipeline. That said, Boyd currently offers minimal power and has a below average hit tool, though his contact-heavy approach and potential to grow into a little more power as he physically matures is enough to keep him on the radar as a potential big league contributor.

Also in the deal is McIntosh, who joins Luzardo in heading from Miami to Philadelphia. The 26-year-old isn’t considered to be much of a prospect, having been selected by the Marlins in the 34th round of the 2018 draft. He slashed .246/.340/.385 in 117 games with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate in Pensacola this past season. For the Phillies, McIntosh should offer a solid glove-first option behind the plate to help guide the club’s young pitchers in the upper minors and perhaps provide some depth behind the club’s big league catching corps.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Phillies were acquiring Luzardo. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald was first to report that Miami was acquiring Caba and Boyd. Matt Gelb of the Athletic had McIntosh’s inclusion.

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Further Offseason Moves, Sasaki

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The Phillies might have already made their biggest moves of the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has given out this winter; they signed right-handed reliever Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. At a recent press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested those two signings are likely his primary offseason additions.

The executive spoke favorably of Kepler, praising his selectivity and bat-to-ball skills. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies ranked among the bottom half of teams in contact and chase rate in 2024. Evidently, Dombrowski is hoping Kepler will help to fix that problem. His chase rate was below average this past year but typically ranks among the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average in every season of his career.

Kepler will slot into the lineup as the primary left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no concerns about his ability to quickly pick it up. He has graded out as an excellent defensive right fielder throughout his career. Of more concern than Kepler’s ability to play left field is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The lefty batter had reverse platoon splits in 2024 but has often struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be the strong side of a platoon in Philadelphia. However, the POBO identifies the righty-batting Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover for Kepler with a tough lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas is another righty-batting outfielder on the roster, but he’ll most likely be busy covering for center fielder Brandon Marsh, another lefty-batting outfielder with poor platoon splits.

While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he acknowledged that his new signing is coming off a down year. It’s debatable how true that is; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 were a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but right in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021-22. The version of Kepler on display in 2024 might be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder took a step back in 2024 and why the Phillies are optimistic he’ll improve in 2025. Kepler was playing through a core muscle injury for much of the 2024 season. However, he had surgery to repair the issue this offseason and has already recovered. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long was pleased with what he saw.

While Kepler and Romano are both looking to bounce back from injuries in 2025, Dombrowski would not characterize either signing as bargain bin shopping. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are simply two players the team wanted – indeed, he says they have liked Kepler for quite a while – and it was the players themselves who sought one-year deals. It seems that both are hoping to boost their value and re-enter the free agent market next offseason.

On a similar note, Dombrowski also denied that he is working under strict payroll constraints. That said, he did make it quite clear that he almost certainly isn’t looking to sign any additional impact free agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first offseason in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he didn’t sign a free agent to a nine-figure contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still projected to increase by more than $30MM to a franchise-record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s largely because the three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed this past March will begin next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski did sign a nine-figure deal this offseason – he just did it several months early.

As for smaller additions to improve the team along the margins, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one more position player for the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Currently, the Phillies have three bench players who seem to be locks for the Opening Day roster: utility infielder Edmundo Sosa, fourth outfielder Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They could use one more option who can play both the infield and the outfield. While Dombrowski doesn’t eliminate the possibility of seeking an external upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. He names Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Buddy Kennedy as three players who could fill that role from within the organization.

Wilson has the most MLB success of the trio, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name multiple times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year remaining. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, which means the Phillies would risk losing them through waivers if they don’t put them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, while Kennedy has very limited professional experience playing the outfield.

Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for an upgrade. Ideally, he’d like an arm that could potentially take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also pitch out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker wins the fifth starter job out of camp. That seems to describe someone like Spencer Turnbull, who the Phillies signed for one year and $2MM last offseason. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 relief appearances for Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jakob Junis could be an intriguing option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.

The Phillies currently have six locks for the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as back-end arms, and he identifies Tanner Banks and José Ruiz as middle-inning relievers the team likes. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would presumably go to the aforementioned swingman. The other will most likely remain up for grabs entering spring training. Dombrowski mentioned Max Lazar as one possibility to win the job. The righty struggled in a handful of big league appearances this past year but excelled in the minors.

One final point of interest from Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief discussion of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The executive made it clear the Phillies would love to engage in further discussions with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising – the Phillies never seemed like a frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes – but it’s still a disappointing update.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Phillies, Nick Vespi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent left-hander Nick Vespi, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Vespi, 29, has seen big league time with the Orioles in each of the past three seasons. He’s tallied 53 1/3 innings along the way, pitching to a solid 3.88 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.9% walk rate. Vespi embodies the “finesse lefty” archetype, sitting 89 mph on his cutter, but he’s missed bats (12.9% swinging-strike rate) and kept the ball on the ground (44.7%) at clips that are slightly better than league average.

Despite the solid work in the majors, Vespi was designated for assignment in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed. A disastrous showing in Triple-A this year surely contributed to that outcome. Vespi pitched 42 1/3 innings down in Norfolk but was rocked for a 7.23 ERA. A sky-high .424 average on balls in play played a role in inflating his earned run average, but Vespi also walked a very uncharacteristic 14.6% of his opponents and plunked three more. A whopping 16% of his opponents in Triple-A reached via base-on-balls or hit-by-pitch.

If Vespi can get back to the solid command he showed both in Triple-A and in the majors, he’ll have a good chance of pitching his way into the Phillies’ plans. He may not throw hard, but he’s been good in three Triple-A seasons prior to 2024 and has had some solid big league results in Baltimore. Vespi generally limits hard contact well — career 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate — and did so quite well in Norfolk this year even while struggling with his bottom-line results (85.7 mph average exit velocity, 27.6% hard-hit rate).

He’ll need to earn the opportunity with a strong spring or impressive early work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Vespi does land on the big league roster, he can be controlled not only for the 2025 season but an additional five years beyond that point.

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