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Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Kneecap Fracture

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Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has been diagnosed with a right kneecap fracture, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). He suffered the injury in yesterday’s win over the Angels when he fouled a ball off his knee.

It’s another tough development for Lowe, who is unfortunately no stranger to late-season injuries. He missed most of the second half in 2019 with a bone bruise in his right leg, although he was able to return for the playoffs. Lowe missed last year’s postseason with a recurring back issue. There’s now a good chance he’ll miss the playoffs again, with the estimated return timetable only leaving the possibility of a comeback late in a deep run.

Lowe is one of the game’s better offensive second basemen. The left-handed hitter has connected on 21 homers in 436 plate appearances, ranking eighth at the position. He’s walking at a strong 11.5% clip and owns a .231/.328/.443 line overall. Despite a fairly high strikeout rate and middling batting average, he’s an above-average hitter. That’s particularly true against right-handed pitching, whom Lowe has hit at a .241/.335/.478 clip.

Tampa Bay has been living with next to nothing offensively out of the shortstop position lately. The group led by Taylor Walls is hitting .188/.282/.304 this month. They’ll now also have to patch things together at the keystone. Isaac Paredes moved over there tonight against the Blue Jays with Curtis Mead stepping in at third base. The Rays have rookie Osleivis Basabe in a utility role, while they just promoted top prospect Junior Caminero (who didn’t get into the game tonight).

Lowe’s injury occurred yesterday, but the Rays had a pair of departures from tonight’s contest. Randy Arozarena is day-to-day after leaving with right quad tightness. They could be in line for another extended absence from reliever Jason Adam, who came out in the ninth inning after feeling side tightness.

Adam just returned after missing three weeks with a left oblique strain. He told Topkin (Twitter link) that while this discomfort is in a different area of the oblique, it’s more painful than the prior strain. He’s likely headed back to the 15-day injured list. The 32-year-old righty has had another strong season out of Cash’s bullpen, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate in 54 frames.

Tampa Bay is two games back of the Orioles in the AL East, pending the result of Baltimore’s game in Cleveland. The Rays have seven games left on the regular season schedule. They’ll host Toronto for two more, play a two-game set in Boston on Tuesday and Wednesday, then wrap up the year with three against the Jays at the Rogers Centre.

Injury Notes: Lowe, Paddack, Thompson, Suarez

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The Rays placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list earlier this week. While the club initially announced his injury as lower back inflammation, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Lowe has a disc herniation. Manager Kevin Cash said before tonight’s game Lowe will be shut down from all baseball activities for two to three weeks.

It’ll clearly be more than a minimal stay for the power-hitting infielder. Lowe will need some time to ramp up once he can again begin working out, and the absence is significant enough he’ll probably require a minor league rehab assignment. Given that timeline, it doesn’t seem out of the question Lowe is out of MLB action through the All-Star Break. It’s the second straight season in which his back has given him problems. Lowe’s 2022 campaign was cut short by a lower back issue in mid-September.

The Rays figure to rotate a number of players through the keystone in his absence. Vidal Bruján started the first two games there after Lowe’s IL placement. The Rays kicked Taylor Walls over from third base tonight, penciling Isaac Paredes in at the hot corner.

A few other health updates from around the game:

  • The Twins have been without Chris Paddack since he underwent a second career Tommy John procedure last May. The right-hander has maintained a goal of returning for the stretch run this season. That still seems to be on track, as Paddack began throwing off a mound last week (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s shooting for a big league return in September, though it’s possible that’ll have to be in relief to accelerate his build-up. Acquired from the Padres on the eve of Opening Day last year, Paddack has made just five starts as a Twin. Nevertheless, the organization guaranteed him $12.25MM to buy out his first year of would-be free agency (2025) over the offseason.
  • Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson landed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain over the weekend. Manager Dave Roberts initially pegged his expected absence around a month, though it seems that was a bit optimistic. Roberts told reporters this evening that Thompson is likely to miss beyond 30 days (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). It’s not expected to be a season-ending injury but there wasn’t any further clarity on the timeline. It seems possible he’ll wind up on the 60-day injured list if L.A. needs a 40-man roster spot in the coming weeks. The Dodgers called up rookie Jonny DeLuca to take Thompson’s spot on the MLB roster.
  • The Angels have been without starter José Suarez for a month on account of a strain in his throwing shoulder. It doesn’t seem the southpaw is particularly close to a return, as Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that Suarez had yet to begin throwing. There’s not a clear timetable for when he might start working off a mound, although Blum adds that he has been working out at the team’s Arizona complex. A reliable #4 starter for the past few years, Suarez has had a nightmarish 2023. He was tagged for a 9.62 ERA over six appearances before he landed on the shelf.

Rays Place Brandon Lowe On Injured List

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The Rays have placed infielder Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his lower back, per a team announcement. The move is retroactive to June 4. Infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan has been recalled from Triple-A Durham to take Lowe’s spot on the roster.

Lowe, 28, sprinted out of the gates with an impressive power display early in the season, slashing .257/.368/.581 with seven homers through his first 87 trips to the plate. His OPS has plummeted by more than 250 points since that time, however, as he’s fallen into a dismal slump. Over his past 114 plate appearances, Lowe is slashing just .157/.237/.255 with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate.

The Rays held Lowe out of yesterday’s lineup with what was initially termed discomfort in his lower leg, but Lowe told reporters not long before the game that he’d also been experiencing discomfort in his back following a recent slide into third base. That issue, it seems, has proved problematic enough that he’ll be shelved for at least the next nine days. The team has not yet provided any sort of timetable for his return to the roster.

Brujan, 25, was long rated as  one of the game’s top overall prospects but has yet to find any success in the big leagues. He’s seen time in each of the past three seasons but managed only a .161/.215/.233 output in 209 plate appearances. That includes a .250/.286/.250 slash in 21 trips to the plate this season. He’s been far better in Triple-A, where he sports a .268/.355/.435 batting line, 22 home runs and 79 steals in 198 games (883 plate appearances).

With Lowe sidelined, the ever-versatile Rays will have plenty of options to step into the lineup in his place. Each of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes and the newly recalled Brujan is plenty familiar with Lowe’s customary second base. The switch-hitting Walls and the righty-swinging Paredes are both much better against left-handed pitching than against righties. Brujan, also a switch-hitter, has typically been better from the left side of the plate, and that’s especially true in 2023: .286/.380/.484 versus righties, .167/.297/.241 versus lefties. For today, with the Rays taking on Red Sox righty Brayan Bello, it’ll be Brujan drawing the start and batting eighth.

Checking In On The Rays’ Left-Handed Bats

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Back in October, just after the Rays had been bounced from the postseason, president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a press conference and outlined some goals for the offseason. One area targeted for improvement was the club’s performance against right-handed pitching. As a whole, the team hit .234/.305/.373 against righties, leading to a 99 wRC+ that indicates they were just a hair below average.

“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.

The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.

Brandon Lowe

In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.

Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.

Wander Franco

Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.

Taylor Walls

The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.

Francisco Mejía

Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.

Luke Raley

Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.

Josh Lowe

Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.

Vidal Bruján

Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.

Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.

Greg Jones

Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.

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All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.

The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.

As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.

Mariners Looking For Left-Handed Hitting Second Baseman

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Over a year ago, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto publicly declared that the club would not be supplanting J.P. Crawford at shortstop. That was despite a huge class of free agent shortstops that existed at that time, including Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez.

Coming into this offseason, Dipoto stuck to his guns but said that his “great preference” would be to land a shortstop to play second base. This year features another strong class of free agent shortstops, with Correa on the market again, this time alongside Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. However, they may be getting priced out of the bidding, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that the expected prices of those shortstops are making it likelier that the M’s pursue a left-handed hitting second baseman to platoon with Dylan Moore.

The Mariners already had such a player in 2022, acquiring Adam Frazier from the Padres going into the year. He only had one year of club control remaining at the time and is now a free agent. The Mariners could always bring him back, but his bat took a step back this year. After hitting .305/.368/.411 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 113, he hit just .238/.301/.311 for a wRC+ of 81. Given that dip in production, the club might look for other options.

The other free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Robinson Cano missed all of 2021 due to a PED suspension, had a worse season than Frazier and is now 40 years old. Switch-hitters Cesar Hernandez and Jonathan Villar also both had worse years than Frazier in 2022. Perhaps the best fit would be Jace Peterson, who has hit .238/.337/.373 over the past three seasons for a wRC+ of 98. His defensive grades are strong overall though that’s mostly due to excellent work at third base, with his numbers more middling elsewhere.

Given Dipoto’s penchant for the trade market has earned him the nickname “Trader Jerry,” perhaps that is the most likely route the club would take to address the keystone. Rosenthal speculates Kolten Wong as a fit, which is a match that has already been reported in recent weeks. However, Rosenthal also suggests they could target cheaper and more controllable players, since Wong will make $10MM in 2023 and then become a free agent.

Rosenthal suggests the Rays would make for a good trading partner, since they have Jonathan Aranda, Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Brandon Lowe in their cluttered infield mix. All four of those players would come with risk in different ways. Lowe dealt with various injuries in 2022 and only got into 65 games on the season, with diminished production when he was on the field. After hitting .247/.340/.523 for a wRC+ of 137 last year, he slipped to .221/.308/.383 this year, still above average but a much lower 104 wRC+. He’ll make $5.25MM next year and then $8.75MM in 2024, with two club options after that at $10.5MM and $11.5MM. The Rays are usually not afraid to make deals of their experienced players but trading Lowe now would be selling low, no pun intended.

As for Walls, Aranda and Brujan, all three carry the risk of not being established major leaguers. Walls has the most experience of the bunch, with 196 MLB games under his belt. However, he’s seemed overmatched in that time so far, hitting just .182/.281/.288 with defensive metrics split on how to view his work in the field. Brujan has 62 MLB games on his track record but his batting line is even worse, coming in at .150/.207/.231. Aranda’s played just 32 games so far and hit .192/.276/.321. All three players have stronger numbers in the minors but haven’t been able to bring them up to the bigs just yet.

If the Mariners don’t find anything to their liking in those mentioned names, they could perhaps turn their attentions to other speculative trade targets such as Cavan Biggio, Nolan Gorman, Tony Kemp or Nick Madrigal.

Rays Activate Tyler Glasnow, Transfer Brandon Lowe To 60-Day Injured List

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The Rays announced Wednesday that righty Tyler Glasnow has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Brandon Lowe, already known to be out for the season due to a back injury, was transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The Rays optioned righty Cristofer Ogando to Triple-A Durham to create a spot on the active roster.

Glasnow’s return gives the Rays a high-octane arm to add to the rotation mix both down the stretch and, more pivotally, in the postseason. Glasnow, who tossed seven minor league rehab innings prior to today’s activation, will be capped at two or three in his first start back from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. He could feasibly build up to a larger, less-restricted workload if Tampa Bay can put together a deep playoff run.

A healthy Glasnow unequivocally improves the Rays’ odds of doing just that, as he’d broken out following a trade from the Pirates, finally developing into the front-of-the-rotation talent he was billed as during his top prospect days. The 6’8″ righty started 37 games for Tampa Bay from 2019-21, pitching to a 2.80 ERA with a massive 35.9% strikeout rate and solid 7.8% walk rate over the life of 206 innings. The only pitchers in baseball with a higher strikeout rate during that three-year stretch were Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom, and only Shane Bieber had a higher percentage of combined called and swinging strikes than Glasnow’s 32.9%.

The Rays and Glasnow came to terms on a somewhat surprising two-year, $30.35MM extension earlier this summer — one that’s reflective both of Glasnow’s injury/missed time and his Cy Young-caliber upside. Glasnow will $5.35MM in 2023, which would’ve been his final arbitration year, representing a modest increase over this season’s $5.1MM salary. He’ll then be guaranteed a $25MM salary in 2024 — what would’ve otherwise been his first free-agent season. It’s the most the perennially cost-conscious Rays have ever paid for a single season of a player, so there’s surely a bit of trepidation on their end of things. At the same time, it’s rare for any player with Glasnow’s service time –and particularly one of Glasnow’s caliber — to sign away just one free-agent year, even on the heels of an injury-wrecked season. There’s some compromise from both parties, and Glasnow said after the contract that he’s “exactly where I want to be.”

The returning Glasnow will now join Shane McClanahan, Corey Kluber, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs in a formidable rotation. Each of McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs will be options alongside Glasnow through at least the 2024 season, and the Rays will have several impressive young hurlers to vie for the fifth starting spot next season (barring a free-agent or trade addition). Luis Patino, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and prospect Taj Bradley will all be in the mix, though their most touted arm, righty Shane Baz, will likely miss all of the 2023 season following his recent Tommy John surgery.

Shane Baz To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Brandon Lowe Won’t Return In 2022

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The Rays got two pieces of bad news today, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relaying both (Twitter links). Right-hander Shane Baz will undergo Tommy John surgery which will keep him out of action through the end of the 2023 campaign. Furthermore, Brandon Lowe won’t return here in 2022 due to an ongoing back issue.

Baz will end his 2022 season with only 27 innings pitched over six starts, as arthroscopic elbow surgery and then an elbow sprain (which has kept him on the injured list since July) limited his ability to get onto the mound. Unfortunately, those elbow problems have now resulted in the worst-case scenario of TJ surgery, and Baz now faces another completely lost season in 2023.

It was just over a year ago that Baz made his MLB debut, making three starts for the Rays at the end of the 2021 season and then getting another start in their playoff rotation during the ALDS. While entrusting an inexperienced pitcher with a big postseason start didn’t work out well for Tampa Bay, it was a sign of just how much faith the Rays have in Baz as one of the key arms of their future. The righty had become one of baseball’s top pitching prospects during his excellent 2021 minor league season, and thus entered 2022 as a favorite for AL Rookie Of The Year honors.

Instead, Baz will now be out of action until Opening Day 2024. It is a testament to the Rays’ pitching depth that they are still in prime position to return to the playoffs even without Baz or several other notable injured hurlers (such as another Tommy John patient in Tyler Glasnow, who has missed all of 2022 but might be close to returning for some bullpen work late in the regular season or in the postseason). Still, losing Baz to TJ surgery is naturally a blow to the Rays’ present and future plans, given how young and controllable pitching is such a key plank of Tampa Bay’s strategies.

Between 2022 and 2023, Baz will bank two full seasons of Major League service time while on the injured list, though he still isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 season. Assuming he is able to return from rehab in good form, he can use 2024 as a platform for a decent arb payday, but obviously Baz’s first priority is just getting healthy.

In regards to 2022 alone, having Lowe for only 65 games was an even bigger short-term problem for the Rays than losing Baz, given how Lowe is an established big league talent. After top-10 finishes in AL MVP voting in each of the last two seasons, Lowe hit only .221/.308/.383 over 266 plate appearances, as he was limited by three separate stints on the IL. One of those absences was a minimal 10-day stint due to a biceps contusion, but Lowe was mostly hampered by his lower-back problem.

It remains to be seen if Lowe might require a surgical fix to fully solve his back problems, and if so, such a procedure might impact his readiness for the start of the 2023 campaign. Arbitration isn’t a factor for Lowe, who had two guaranteed seasons remaining on a six-year, $24MM extension he signed back in March 2019, and he is owed at least $15MM more on that deal (which includes two club options). Given how the Rays are always open to dealing veteran players, it would seem like Lowe’s injury and down year would certainly lessen the chance of a trade, but a move cannot be entirely ruled out.

Such a decision would hinge on how comfortable the Rays are with their other options at second base. Isaac Paredes, Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan have handled most of the workload with Lowe out, with varying degrees of success. Walls is a premium defender who hasn’t hit much, while Paredes has shown some pop in his first season with the Rays, and Aranda has gotten off to a solid start in his first month in the big leagues. Tampa will now be counting on this mix to help them in the postseason, with Lowe no longer a possibility.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Lowe, Cavalli, Ashby

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The Mets have been without Max Scherzer for the past ten days, as the three-time Cy Young winner has battled some fatigue in his left oblique. That was a bit of a concern given that a strain in the muscle cost him around two months earlier this season, but Scherzer looks as if he’s on track to be reinstated when first eligible next Monday. He made a rehab start with Triple-A Syracuse tonight, tossing 59 pitches over 3 2/3 innings. After the game, Scherzer told reporters he feels “excellent” and would be ready to rejoin the big league rotation at the beginning of next week (via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com).

Scherzer’s prompt return is obviously a boon for a Mets team battling for a division title down the stretch. At 89-55, New York holds a half-game advantage over the Braves in the NL East. They’re a postseason lock, but securing the division is likely to come with a first-round bye as a top-two seed in the National League. New York is five games clear of the third-seeded Cardinals, who lead the NL Central, putting the East winner in good position to join the Dodgers in earning an immediate trip to the NL Division Series.

Some other injury updates around the game:

  • The Rays just placed Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list yesterday, the second baseman’s third such stint of the 2022 season. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that an MRI revealed some inflammation in Lowe’s back. He’s headed for further evaluation to determine treatment possibilities, but Cash indicated the club is still hopeful he’ll return to the diamond this season. The Rays look set to mix-and-match at second base while Lowe’s out, giving the last three starts at the position to Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda and Isaac Paredes respectively. Walls is the best defender of the group, but he’s not hit well this year. Paredes has only a .293 on-base percentage but has connected on 18 home runs in 92 games. Aranda has only 15 big league games under his belt, but he’s raked at a .318/.394/.521 clip through 465 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham.
  • Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli has been out for the past two weeks after being diagnosed with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. That seems likely to end his season, as manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com) that Cavalli is unlikely to make it back to game action this year. With three weeks remaining and the Nationals virtual locks for last place, there’s no reason for the club to take any chances with the prized young hurler. Martinez indicated that Cavalli has been cleared to start throwing after a brief shutdown period and the team feels he’ll be able to work from a mound before the season is out, but it seems that’ll be in a bullpen session rather than in-game work. Cavalli, generally regarded as the top pitching prospect in the organization, made his first MLB appearance on August 26. He’s likely to compete for a job in the season-opening rotation as Washington continues their rebuild next year.
  • Aaron Ashby returned to a mound for the first time since landing on the injured list three weeks ago, tossing an 18-pitch bullpen session this afternoon (reported by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). He’s scheduled for another bullpen session over the weekend. The Brewers remain hopeful the southpaw will be able to make it back this season, although he’d work in shorter stints due to the abbreviated ramp-up period. Ashby has started 17 of his 23 appearances this year, but he came out of the bullpen for nine of his 13 outings in 2021. He’s thrived as a reliever in his MLB career, posting a 3.63 ERA with a 36.2% strikeout rate through 34 2/3 innings in that capacity. Ashby has been a bit more erratic when trying to navigate a lineup multiple times as a starter, although he’s still flashed the swing-and-miss and ground-ball combination that made him such a promising pitching prospect. Milwaukee sits two games back of the Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot, so they’d surely welcome any contributions they can get from the 24-year-old for the stretch run.

Rays Place Brandon Lowe On Injured List

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The Rays announced they’ve placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, with lower back discomfort. Backstop René Pinto was recalled from Triple-A Durham to take the open active roster spot.

It’s the third IL stint of what has to be a frustrating season for Lowe. He suffered a stress reaction in his lower back in mid-May, an injury that required a multi-week shutdown and two-month absence. He returned in mid-July but went back on the shelf with a calf contusion in late August. That second stint proved brief, as Lowe was reinstated after a minimal 10-day absence last week, but he’s now again headed back to the injured list.

The Rays haven’t indicated how long they anticipate Lowe being out of action, but it’s an ill-timed absence as the end of the regular season nears. Tampa Bay trails the Yankees by 5 1/2 games in the AL East and is unlikely to capture the division title, but they’re battling for Wild Card position. The Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays occupy the AL’s three Wild Card spots and are all within half a game of one another. With a 5 1/2 cushion over the nearest non-playoff team, the Orioles, it seems likely all three will make it to the postseason. Securing the top Wild Card spot entitles a team to home-field advantage in the first-round playoff series, with all three games (if necessary) taking place at the higher seed’s ballpark.

Tampa Bay’s efforts to secure that position will be dealt a blow with Lowe again hitting the shelf. Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda and Taylor Walls look like the top candidates to step in at the keystone, with the club losing some infield depth yesterday when Yu Chang was nabbed off waivers by the Red Sox. Lowe isn’t having his best season, but his .221/.308/.383 line still checks in a hair above league average by measure of wRC+.

Injury Notes: Carpenter, Gonsolin, Kopech, Lowe

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The miraculous Matt Carpenter comeback was put on pause last month when the infielder/outfielder for the Yankees fractured his foot. On August 10, it was reported that he would need surgery and be reevaluated in a month, with the club hopeful he could return in 6-8 weeks. Here we are almost a month later and Carpenter has made progress but not much. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that Carpenter underwent some X-rays that showed healing but it isn’t enough to get him out of his protective walking boot. He’ll be reevaluated again in 10-14 days, says manager Aaron Boone.

That essentially eliminates any chance of Carpenter returning at the short end of that 6-8 time frame and even puts the longer end of it in doubt. By the time that next evaluation rolls around, it will already have been six weeks since the injury. Even if Carpenter gets good news at that point, he will surely need some kind of rehab assignment to get him back into game shape after such a long layoff. That could also be a challenge if the injury lingers, as most minor league teams will be winding down their seasons in the coming weeks. The Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders are the Yankee affiliate that goes the latest, though their last scheduled game is September 28, three weeks from today.

Prior to the injury, Carpenter was on an absolute tear, hitting 15 home runs in 47 games and slashing .305/.412/.727 for a wRC+ of 218. It’s all the more remarkable given that Carpenter was hitting at a below-average rate in the previous three seasons. The club has seemingly missed that hot bat, going 10-13 since August 10. They have a 4 1/2 game lead over the Rays and a six game cushion on the Blue Jays in the AL East race.

Some other tidbits from around the league…

  • Dodgers righty Tony Gonsolin was placed on the IL due to a forearm strain August 29, but since the move was retroactive to August 26, he’s eligible to come off in a few days. Gonsolin has been playing catch in recent days, which is perhaps a sign that he’s not far from returning. However, it’s not all good news, with Juan Toribio of MLB.com relaying word from manager Dave Roberts that Gonsolin isn’t progressing as quickly as they initially hoped for. The Dodgers are virtually guaranteed a bye through the first round of the playoffs and can take their time with Gonsolin, though it’s at least noteworthy that the plan isn’t on schedule so far. The righty had enjoyed a tremendous breakout season, throwing 128 1/3 innings with a 2.10 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 43.2% groundball rate.
  • White Sox righty Michael Kopech landed on the IL August 23 due to a knee strain but was activated today after a minimum stint. After missing all of 2019 and 2020, Kopech threw 69 1/3 innings last year and has already jumped up to 110 2/3 here in 2022, coming into today’s action. He’s fared well overall on the season, registering a 3.58 ERA, though his 21.4% strikeout rate and 12% are both a bit worse than league average, with a .228 BABIP likely helping him keep that ERA down. The club will be looking for a strong finish from Kopech and the team overall, as they are currently three games back of the Guardians in the Central and 7 1/2 out of a Wild Card spot.
  • The Rays have reinstated infielder Brandon Lowe from the IL, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Lowe landed on the shelf due to a right triceps contusion but has now returned after a minimum stay. It was the second IL stint of the year for Lowe, who also missed about two months due to a back issue. Despite the multiple ailments, he’s still hitting .234/.319/.405 on the season for a wRC+ of 114. That’s a bit of a drop-off from his previous seasons but still 14% above league average. Tampa is in the thick of all the American League action, sitting 4 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the East while grappling with the Mariners and Blue Jays for the top Wild Card spot.
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