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Cubs Close To Deal For Kyle Tucker

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1:20pm: Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is also involved in the talks, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

1:03pm: The Cubs and Astros are “close” to an agreement on a Tucker trade, tweets Heyman. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12:56pm: Talks between the two sides have “continued to gain momentum,” Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names being discussed,” suggesting others could indeed be in play.

9:10am: The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It’s not yet clear whether other players are involved on either end. There’s no indication a deal is nearing the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall pick broke out as an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the game’s best young players all around. Over the past four seasons, he’s turned in a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fracture in his shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games.

Tucker is a year from reaching free agency as a 28-year-old and is poised to command the type of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract under Crane has been Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal. Jose Altuve’s $151MM extension is the largest in terms of overall guarantee. Tucker could command double that guarantee in free agency over a significantly longer term than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of trading Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has young Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. Left fielder Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There’d be no obvious spot to play either Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. That’d be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki has a preference to play in the field rather than slot in as a primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, further complicating matters.

The trio of players’ contracts are worth keeping in mind, too. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $15.8MM this coming season. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5MM salary next season and has a $25MM player option with a $5MM buyout for the 2026 season. In essence, he’s guaranteed at least $32.5MM for one year and perhaps $52.5MM over the next two seasons, pending that opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years to go on his five-year, $85MM contract and will earn $18MM in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has voiced a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation presents itself but seems to rather clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be a second straight season. The ’Stros have been angling to bring longtime third baseman Alex Bregman back into the fold, but he’s been seeking a deal north of $200MM while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156MM. That the Astros are looking at not only an immediate big league option at the hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) at least implies some pessimism of completing a reunion with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also have a need at first base. Paredes could capably fill that role, as he’s played all four infield positions throughout his big league career. He’s primarily been a third baseman, but he does have nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base and then simply be content to add a player with Smith’s overall upside to the upper tiers of their system. Smith isn’t likely to be a big league option until 2026 anyhow, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outfield corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, went from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and struggled in his new environs. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and belted 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and looked well on his way to approximating that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays prior to the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash in 212 plate appearances.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who’s swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions across the past three seasons. He’s walked in a strong 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span against a 17.3% strikeout rate that’s about five percentage points lower than average. He’s projected to earn $6.9MM in 2025 and is under club control through the 2027 season. He’d be a long-term add for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and plus production against southpaws (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in pull percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate in that same set. An extreme-pull righty bat with that kind of penchant for elevating the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 14 pick last summer and signed for a bonus a bit north of $5MM. The Florida State product absolutely torched minor league pitching with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two Class-A levels and Double-A. It was one of the best debut performances of any draftee and only served to further elevate his already considerable prospect stock. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that in 2024 boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects. Smith will likely be included on several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros for a $215MM bottom-line payroll with nearly $234MM of luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7MM shy of this season’s $241MM tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up quite a bit of breathing room, as would a trade of reliever Ryan Pressly, whose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He’s owed $14MM but can veto any trade scenario as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that his club might need to be “creative” to address roster needs amid payroll uncertainty, and talk of potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez all fit under that umbrella.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Cubs Sign First-Round Pick Cam Smith

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The Cubs have signed third baseman Cam Smith to a $5,070,700 bonus, per Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo. That bonus matches the slot value of the fourteenth overall pick Chicago used to select the infielder. Smith’s bonus will take up the majority of Chicago’s $9,802,300 total bonus pool for this year’s draft.

Smith, 21, was generally expected to go in the middle of the first round, although prospect services held some differences of opinion regarding his exact placement in the class. MLB Pipeline had Smith ranked exactly 14th, while Fangraphs was highest on him at 7th in the class. Baseball America (16th), ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (17th), and The Athletic’s Keith Law (19th) all ranked Smith just below Pipeline but still within the draft’s top 20.

The Florida State product boasts a strong .331/.420/.594 slash line across his time in collegiate ball, although it’s worth noting that he adjusted his swing prior to his second year in the ACC and took a major step forward with an eye-popping .387/.488/.654 slash line in 322 trips to the plate. Listed at 6’3”, 224 lbs, there’s some debate among various prospect services about whether or not Smith will be able to stick at third base long-term, but scouts generally seem to agree that even if he needs to move to an outfield corner or first base his impressive power potential should allow him to stay relevant at positions where more pressure will be put on his bat.

It’s the second season in a row where the Cubs used their first-round pick to select a college infielder, and Smith figures to join 2023 draftee Matt Shaw in the club’s near-term infield plans. Dansby Swanson is locked in at shortstop long-term, and Michael Busch is surely part of the club’s long-term plans amid a fantastic rookie campaign where he’s slashed a 132 wRC+ as the club’s primary first baseman.

Even so, there’s still room in the club’s big league infield mix for an addition or two when Shaw and/or Smith are ready to contribute. Christopher Morel has had an up-and-down season at the plate while struggling badly with the glove at the hot corner, and while Nico Hoerner is currently locked in as the club’s everyday second baseman his contract runs only through the end of the 2026 season. With some scouts suggesting that Smith’s development may take a bit longer than is typically associated with college position players, it’s certainly feasible to imagine playing time opening up for Smith by the time he reaches the majors, even in the event that Shaw is able to position himself as an everyday infielder in his own right.

2024 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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This year’s amateur draft is officially underway, and we’ll be updating this post throughout the night with every first-round selection.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The first-round picks…

  1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
  2. Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
  3. Colorado Rockies: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
  4. Oakland Athletics: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
  5. Chicago White Sox: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
  6. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
  7. St. Louis Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia
  8. Los Angeles Angels: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
  9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep High School (MS)
  10. Washington Nationals: Seaver King, SS/3B/OF, Wake Forest
  11. Detroit Tigers: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)
  12. Boston Red Sox: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
  13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
  14. Chicago Cubs: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
  15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, LHP/RHP, Mississippi State
  16. Miami Marlins: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville High School (SC)
  17. Milwaukee Brewers: Braylon Payne, OF, Elkins High School (TX)
  18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, OF/MI, Westlake High School (TX)
  19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State
  20. Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
  21. Minnesota Twins: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
  22. Baltimore Orioles: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
  23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee High School (FL)
  24. Atlanta Braves: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguero High School (AZ)
  25. San Diego Padres: Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City High School (OK)
  26. New York Yankees: Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
  27. Philadelphia Phillies: Dante Nori, OF, Northville High School (MI)
  28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston
  29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View High School (AR)
  30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

All 30 teams will have picks in the first round this year, though the Mets, Padres, and Yankees all had their first-round selections dropped back by 10 slots.  These three teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier ($273MM) in 2023, and thus their punishment included a 10-space drop in their opening draft choice.

The 2024 draft will take place over three days, consisting of 20 rounds of selections.  Rounds 3-10 will take place on Monday, rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, and the draft’s first 74 picks will come off the board tonight.  Those 74 picks consist of the first two proper rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and two Prospect Promotion Incentive picks.

The two PPI selections will go to the Diamondbacks at 31st overall and the Orioles at 32nd overall, awarded since Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson fit all of the criteria for their teams to receive the bonus picks.  Carroll and Henderson won Rookie of the Year honors, both young stars were included on their respective teams’ Opening Day rosters, and were rated as top-100 prospects in at least two of three sets of preseason prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and ESPN.

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