AL East Notes: O’Neill, Grichuk, Holmes, Rays
At the end of last season, both Tyler O’Neill and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow expressed interest in the possibility of O’Neill returning to Boston on a new contract. That possibility is now officially off the board after O’Neill signed a three-year, $49.5MM deal with the Orioles yesterday, and as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (Bluesky link), the Sox “were not very aggressive” in their attempts to re-sign the outfielder. Boston’s pursuit of Juan Soto simply took precedence, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, as since the Red Sox are one of the teams still waiting on Soto to make his decision, the Sox didn’t make O’Neill any offers.
More from around the AL East…
- Speaking of the O’Neill signing, the move likely closes the door on the possibility of Randal Grichuk landing in Baltimore, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link) writes that the Orioles had interest in Grichuk’s services. Grichuk would’ve been more of a clear-cut platoon player, but like O’Neill, is a right-handed bat who crushes left-handed pitching. This skillset was on full display with the Diamondbacks in 2024, when Grichuk hit .319/.386/.528 in 184 PA against southpaws. Grichuk turned down a $6MM mutual option for 2025 to enter free agency, and he figures to score a solid contract based on his lefty-mashing offense and his ability to at least passably play all three outfield positions.
- The Blue Jays had interest in Clay Holmes before Holmes signed with the Mets earlier this week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Toronto was looking at Holmes just as a reliever, which isn’t surprising given how fixing the bullpen is one of the Jays’ top offseason priorities. Holmes hasn’t started a game since his rookie year in 2018, but he’ll move back into a starting role with the Mets on his new three-year, $38MM contract.
- By a 4-3 vote on Thursday, the St. Petersburg city council approved a deal to issue bonds to help cover some of the city’s contribution to the Rays‘ new ballpark project. Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times (separate links) looks at both Thursday’s decision and the next step in the process, which is a Pinellas County Commission meeting on December 17 to approve the bonds and $312.5MM in tourism taxes towards the ballpark project. It isn’t yet clear how the county commission will vote, and even in the event of a yes vote, the delays in these votes have already led the Rays to threaten to abandon the deal altogether and leave the Tampa/St. Pete area, as the team says it isn’t feasible for the ballpark’s opening to be put off until 2029. The initial plan saw the new ballpark set to be ready by Opening Day 2028, but Hurricane Milton’s destruction of the Tropicana Field roof has left the Rays in a temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa in 2025, and uncertain about their location for at least the 2026-27 seasons.
Red Sox Reportedly “Open” To Triston Casas Trade
The Red Sox have made plain that their top priority this winter (except, perhaps, for their pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto) is improving their starting rotation. That’s led the club to be connected to a number of top free agent and trade candidates throughout the winter so far, ranging from Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in free agency to Garrett Crochet via the trade market. Earlier this winter, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated that the club had no interest in parting with young first baseman Triston Casas in trade this winter, praising him as a player with “40-home run potential” who he described himself as “excited” to have on the team.
While that infatuation with Casas’s skill set may be true, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported earlier today that the Red Sox have been “open” to including Casas in a trade that achieves their goal of adding a pitcher to the front of their rotation. What’s more, Speier goes on to report that one executive from a rival AL club noted that he Red Sox had offered Casas as the headliner in a package for one of his team’s pitchers. That openness to dealing Casas comes as something of a surprise given Breslow’s public comments last month but Speier cautions that while the club is “exploring all avenues” to improve this winter, including the possibility of a Casas trade, the Red Sox actually dealing the youngster remains unlikely given that they’d likely be selling low after a season where he appeared in just 63 games due to torn cartilage in his ribcage.
When healthy enough to take the field, Casas hit quite well for the Red Sox this year with a .241/.337/.462 slash line (119 wRC+) and 13 homers in 243 trips to the plate. With that being said, there were some red flags in his profile this year that may give interested clubs pause. Notably, he struck out at an elevated 31.7% clip this year that helped hold him back from reaching the incredible heights he flashed after the All-Star break in 2023, when he crushed the ball to the tune of a .317/.417/.617 slash line in a 211 plate appearance sample that nearly matches his shortened 2024 campaign. Given that tantalizing upside, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Red Sox would be hesitant to part with Casas following an injury-plagued season that raised questions about his strikeout rate.
To that end, deals involving Casas are far from the only type of trade the Red Sox have explored this winter. Speier notes that Boston has looked into trades with various clubs that come in several forms, with Casas, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and some of the club’s top prospects all being potential headliners for various deals the club has discussed this winter. Speier suggests that both top outfield prospect Roman Anthony and top second base prospect Kristian Campbell are considered “entirely off-limits” in trade talks, but that still leaves a number of exciting prospects in the Red Sox farm available in the right trade, potentially even including catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Marcelo Mayer.
The club has also, of course, explored free agency as they look for rotation upgrades. The club has been connected to top pitchers like Burnes and Fried throughout the winter, but they’ve also seemingly been involved at lower tiers of the pitching market as well in their search for arms. Robert Murray of FanSided reported yesterday that the Red Sox made a “serious push” for Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber before he re-signed in Cleveland, and Bieber reportedly turned down more money from other clubs in order to return to the only organization he’s known as a professional. Additionally, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported earlier today that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. Holmes landed in Queens as a starting pitcher after spending the majority of his big league career as a reliever, but Rosenthal and Sammon emphasized that it’s not clear whether Boston was among the clubs interested in Holmes as a starter or if they intended to use him out of the bullpen had they ultimately signed him.
That interest in Bieber (and Holmes, if they planned to put him in the rotation) suggests that the Red Sox could be willing to get creative to add pitching talent to their rotation, even as they appear focused on adding a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm. The Red Sox rotation certainly has room for multiple starters given that Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford seem to be the only hurlers locked into rotation spots next year, and pairing an ace-level pitcher like Burnes, Fried, or Crochet with an intriguing bounce-back option would be a good way for the club to raise the ceiling in their rotation substantially without needing to land two top-of-the-market pitchers. Max Scherzer and Tomoyuki Sugano are among the interesting one-year veteran options this winter who could have substantial upside, while Jeff Hoffman stands out as a reliever who has received interest as a starter this offseason.
Orioles Reportedly “Reluctant” To Pursue QO Starters From Other Clubs
The Orioles made their first major splash on the free agent market this evening when they agreed with outfielder Tyler O’Neill on a three-year deal. That signing addressed their desire to add a right-handed bat to the lineup following the departure of switch-hitting free agent Anthony Santander, who was their best hitter in the outfield against left-handed pitching. The club’s biggest need of the winter remains unaddressed, however: a top-of-the-rotation arm to fill the void left by Corbin Burnes when he elected free agency last month.
While the club has previously been connected to top-of-the-market hurlers including former Braves southpaw Max Fried, a report this afternoon from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic shed some light on the club’s strategy for this winter’s pitching market by noting that the club is “reluctant” to pursue qualified free agent pitchers from other clubs. That stance would seemingly exclude them from not only the Fried sweepstakes but also the market for Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, the latter of whom they were previously connected to this winter.
There’s still a number of interesting free agent starters available this winter who don’t fit that description, led by a reunion with Burnes. Re-signing Burnes wouldn’t cause the Orioles to lose a draft pick beyond the opportunity cost of not receiving the pick after the first round they’d be in line to receive should he land elsewhere, but Rosenthal and Sammon suggested the chances of Burnes returning to Baltimore seem “remote” at this point given the possibility that the winter’s #2 free agent becomes the center of attention for Juan Soto bidders who fail to land the superstar slugger. For the Orioles’ part, GM Mike Elias made clear during an appearance on MLB Network Radio last month that the club would “love” to bring Burnes back into the fold for 2025 and beyond.
Should they find themselves outbid for Burnes, however, he’s far from the only viable option to improve the club’s rotation without forfeiting a draft pick. Rosenthal and Sammon describe both veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and righty Jack Flaherty as more appealing to the Orioles than a pursuit of Fried, Manaea, or Pivetta. Of the two, they report that the Orioles appear to prefer Eovaldi after Flaherty’s disastrous run with Baltimore following the trade deadline back in 2023, where he surrendered a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work before turning things around with the Tigers and Dodgers this past year with a 3.17 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 28 starts.
Eovaldi also figures to be much cheaper than Flaherty this winter; on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, MLBTR predicted a two-year, $41MM contract for the veteran while predicting Flaherty would land $115MM over five years. Rosenthal and Sammon also suggest that Flaherty figures to land a contract in the four- to six-year range this winter, and while they don’t comment on Eovaldi’s expected contract it’s worth noting that deals of that length for a pitcher entering their age-35 season as Eovaldi is are all but unheard of in today’s game, with Jacob deGrom standing out as the notable exception to that rule. Eovaldi’s platform season saw him pitch to a 3.80 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 29 starts that don’t quite match up to Flaherty’s performance, though the veteran does offer a lengthy track record of mid-rotation success that compares favorably to Flaherty’s up-and-down career in terms of on-field results over the past half decade.
It also seems at least plausible that the Orioles could look to get creative as they search for rotation upgrades. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Baltimore was among the clubs that had interest in right-hander Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. While Holmes has been a reliever for the majority of his MLB career, the Mets signed him to pitch in their rotation and Rosenthal and Sammon indicated that Baltimore would’ve done the same had they landed him, though some of his other suitors planned to keep him in the relief role in which he turned in a dominant three-and-a-half year stretch with the Yankees. While it’s currently unclear if the club would consider any other free agent relief arms for a move to the rotation, both Michael Soroka and Jeff Hoffman have received buzz as potential starting pitching options this winter after successful runs in relief in 2024.
Clay Holmes Believed To Be Nearing Decision
Free agent right-hander Clay Holmes appears close to making a decision on his next team, reports Jayson Stark of The Athletic. Teams that have been in talks with the former Yankees closer have gotten the impression that he’s on the verge of choosing among several offers, per Stark, who adds that Holmes has been negotiating with “a long list of contending clubs.”
Holmes, 32 in April, spent the past three and a half seasons in the Bronx, combining for 217 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball. He fanned 26.6% of his opponents and limited walks at a sharp 7.7% clip along the way. Holmes established himself as one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers in that time as well, leaning on a sizzling sinker that averages 96.5 mph to induce grounders at a nearly 68% clip.
While Holmes broke out as a reliever in the Bronx, however, there are reportedly several teams that have interest in bringing him aboard as a starting pitcher. Which role he prefers is surely something Holmes has weighed extensively in free agency — particularly if most of the clubs he’s spoken to are expected contenders. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last month that the Mets are among the teams interested in seeing Holmes in the rotation. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported just a couple days ago that the Phillies are interested in Holmes in a relief role. While free agency typically boils down to the “money talks” adage, if Holmes had similar offers from a pair of contending clubs who want to use him in different roles, that’d add another layer to the decision process.
In 2024, Holmes tossed 63 innings of 3.14 ERA ball with a 25.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 65% ground-ball rate. He piled up 30 saves, bringing his career total to 74, but also ceded ninth-inning work to teammate Luke Weaver late in the season due to an alarming — and highly out of character — 13 blown saves on the year. He pitched quite well in 13 postseason appearances, logging a 2.25 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 53.6% grounder rate in a dozen innings. Holmes was frequently thrust into leverage spots, evidenced by a 3-1 record and five holds over the course of those 13 playoff outings.
Yankees, Phillies Among Teams With Interest In Tommy Kahnle
Dec. 5: The Phillies have also checked in on both Kahnle and Holmes this winter, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. They’re known to be in the market for at least one high-leverage reliever this offseason, adding to a late-inning group that currently includes righty Orion Kerkering and lefties Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado. Their interest in Holmes is strictly as a reliever. If he ends up signing as a starting pitcher, it won’t be in Philadelphia.
Dec. 4: The Yankees have interest in another reunion with right-hander Tommy Kahnle, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post, though the veteran reliever has drawn at least some level of interest from as many as seven other clubs. Kahnle said after the Yankees’ season ended that he hoped to return to the Bronx as a free agent, so the interest seems mutual. He’s one of three free agent relievers coming out of the Yankees’ bullpen this offseason, joining Clay Holmes and Tim Hill. The Post’s Dan Martin writes that Holmes is expected to sign elsewhere in free agency.
The 35-year-old Kahnle and the Yankees continue to find their way back to one another. New York drafted the righty in the fifth round back in 2010, lost him to the Rockies in the 2013 Rule 5 Draft, acquired him from the White Sox at the 2017 trade deadline and then signed him as a free agent in the 2022-23 offseason. He’s spent parts of six seasons in pinstripes, logging a combined 3.31 ERA out of the Yankees’ bullpen.
Kahnle’s most recent stint with the Yankees saw him log a combined 2.38 ERA in 83 1/3 regular-season innings from 2023-24. He fanned a strong 27.3% of his opponents in that time but also issued walks at an unpalatable 11% clip. He missed time in each of those seasons with shoulder troubles, however.
Kahnle kept the ball in the yard nicely over the past couple seasons (1.08 HR/9) despite Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field. That’s in part because the overwhelming use of his changeup helped him neutralize left-handed hitters. Nearly three quarters of Kahnle’s pitches in 2023-24 were changeups. Lefties posted an awful .172/.267/.338 slash against him in that time. Spamming his changeup to that extent has also helped Kahnle keep the ball on the ground at a hearty 54.1% clip in that time — including a gaudy 58.9% mark in 2024. The Yankees typically show an affinity for grounder-heavy pitchers in the bullpen.
Of course, what was a generally successful third stint with the Yankees ended on a sour note. Kahnle rattled off seven scoreless innings between the ALDS and ALCS during the 2024 postseason and got out to a fine start in the World Series as well, yielding only an unearned run in his first two appearances (1 2/3 innings). However, it was Kahnle who loaded the bases on a pair of singles and a walk while trying to protect a 6-5 lead in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series. He was lifted without recording an out and saddled with the loss after two of his baserunners eventually came around to score. That showing apparently didn’t sour the Yankees on the changeup specialist, but for now they’re just one of several teams in the mix for his services.
Clay Holmes Drawing Interest As Starting Pitcher
Clay Holmes is one of the top bullpen arms in free agency. While Holmes is surely drawing interest in his typical relief role, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a few clubs are considering the right-hander as a candidate for a move to the rotation. According to Sherman, the Mets are among the teams looking into Holmes as a potential starter.
The bullpen-to-rotation move has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. The Rays have found success with rotation conversions for the likes of Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell. The Yankees started to stretch Michael King out into rotation work at the end of the 2023 season. King dominated in that role, centered the Padres’ trade return for Juan Soto, and turned in an excellent first full season as a starter.
Teams have been especially willing to stretch free agent signees back into rotation work. San Diego hit on their decision to sign Seth Lugo as a starter going into 2023. One year later, Lugo finished second in Cy Young balloting for the Royals. The Braves and Giants took this path with Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks, respectively, last winter. Hicks tailed off in the second half, but López turned in a 1.99 earned run average over 25 starts for Atlanta (albeit with a pair of late-season injured list stints). The White Sox developed Garrett Crochet from a talented reliever with workload concerns to a top-of-the-rotation arm who should net them a huge trade return this offseason. The Angels found some success with a rotation move for sinkerballer José Soriano.
Given the number of hits just within the past three to four years, it’s little surprise teams are interested in continuing the experiment. Jeff Hoffman, the top righty reliever of the free agent class, has already gotten attention as a starter. There’s risk in taking a successful pitcher out of the role in which he’s most comfortable, but the upside of a successful rotation move is tremendous. Even if the pitcher flames out as a starter, as A.J. Puk did with the Marlins this year, there’s a decent chance he could return to the ‘pen without too much issue.
Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, has essentially no major league experience as a starting pitcher. He has made four MLB starts, all of which came as a rookie with the Pirates in 2018. That’s a minuscule sample from six years ago, so there’s little to be gleaned from it, but Holmes struggled in that look (15 innings of 7.80 ERA ball with 13 walks and 12 strikeouts). Like many big league relievers, Holmes did work as a starting pitcher for the bulk of his minor league career.
Since moving to the bullpen, Holmes has essentially scrapped his changeup. His mid-upper 90s sinker is his primary pitch. He has a pair of distinct breaking balls (a slider around 87 MPH and a sweeper in the 83-84 MPH range) and uses each 20-25% of the time. That’s more promising for a potential rotation move than if he were strictly limited to two pitches. Still, he’d likely try out changeup or splitter grips if he’s working deeper into games. Finding a viable changeup, which is easier said than done, would give him a different look as he faces left-handed hitters multiple times in an outing.
Holmes has had some platoon issues throughout his career. He has stifled righty batters to a .209/.295/.293 slash across 843 plate appearances. Lefties have hit .250/.359/.346 over 618 trips to the plate. There’s a huge discrepancy in his strikeout and walk profile. Holmes has excellent strikeout and walk numbers (28.9% and 8.7%, respectively) when he holds the platoon advantage. His K/BB rates against left-handed hitters (18.9% and 12.9%, respectively) are very poor. He has been able to avoid the home run ball against hitters from either side of the plate, though. He gets a ton of grounders regardless of his opponent’s handedness, which served him well over three and a half seasons at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, Holmes had a strong run as New York’s closer. He turned in a 2.69 ERA across 217 2/3 innings as a Yankee. Holmes has topped 20 saves in each of the last three years and set a career mark with 30 saves this past season, but his production wobbled midway through the year. Holmes gave up the lead 13 times, five more than any other pitcher. The Yanks bumped him from the ninth inning for Luke Weaver down the stretch and into the playoffs. Holmes continued to struggle in September before finishing the year with 12 innings of 2.25 ERA ball in the postseason. He recorded five holds and didn’t blow a lead in October.
The Mets lost a trio of starters — Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino — to free agency. They’ve begun to backfill the rotation by agreeing to a two-year deal with Frankie Montas. There’s a lot more work to be done as they build around Kodai Senga and David Peterson. The Mets are sensible fits for any of the top free agent starters, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has gone the reclamation route with the Manaea, Severino and Montas signings over the past two winters. New York has more than enough payroll space to sign a top-tier free agent (e.g. Corbin Burnes, Max Fried) and add another starter from the middle of the market. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $30MM contract for Holmes, who did not receive a qualifying offer and wouldn’t cost any draft compensation.
Boone: Yankees Will Be “Creative” With Closer Role
The Yankees dropped tonight’s rubber match against the Rangers by a 10-6 margin. They’ve lost three straight series overall, dropping two of three against the Nationals, Cardinals and Texas. They had a good chance to secure a series victory and stay ahead of the Orioles in the AL East standings on Tuesday, but Clay Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford in a 7-4 defeat.
It was the 11th save attempt which Holmes has squandered this year, three more than any other pitcher. The Yankees stopped short of officially stripping the right-hander of the closer role, yet it seems they’ll move to more of a committee approach in the short term. Before tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters that he’d be “creative” with the ninth inning (X link via Jack Curry of the YES Network). Boone indicated that Holmes remains in the mix for save chances, though it doesn’t appear that he’ll get every one by default.
To Holmes’ credit, he hasn’t pitched poorly overall in spite of the ugly blown save mark. He carries a solid 3.27 ERA over 55 innings. His 25.2% strikeout percentage and 8% walk rate are fine. Opponents have put nearly two-thirds of their batted balls on the ground. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only teammate Tim Hill has gotten grounders at a higher rate. ERA estimators like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.82) still suggest Holmes has been an excellent pitcher.
Despite the impressive rate stats, Holmes has found himself walking a tightrope at times throughout the year. He was utterly dominant early in the season. He didn’t allow an earned run until May 20, a stretch of 20 games and as many innings. Holmes carries a 5.14 earned run average through 35 frames since that point. The plus command he showed early on has become far shakier in recent weeks. Holmes is headed to free agency for the first time in his career at year’s end.
His ups and downs are magnified by a bullpen that has been underwhelming lately. Yankee relievers rank 22nd in ERA since the All-Star Break. That’s partially on Holmes, but their deadline pickups of Mark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos haven’t panned out. De Los Santos was blasted over five appearances and quickly waived. Leiter has been very homer-prone since landing in the Bronx. Home runs have also been a problem for Luke Weaver and Jake Cousins.
Aside from Holmes, the Yankees have given their highest-leverage work to Tommy Kahnle and Leiter in the second half. Kahnle has pitched well and could pick up some save chances. Boone also left the door open to a potential closing look for either of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt (X link via Curry).
Both pitchers are returning from the injured list this weekend. They’ll each occupy a rotation spot for the upcoming set against the Cubs. The Yankees will carry a six-man rotation into next week before deciding whether to bump someone to relief. Nestor Cortes seems the likeliest candidate for a bullpen move, though he doesn’t have the velocity typically associated with a closer. Gil and Schmidt have more prototypical closing stuff.
Yankees Notes: Judge, Holmes
Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge had a challenging season in 2023, suffering a torn toe ligament when he collided with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium. Back in December, general manager Brian Cashman described it as “a resolved issue” but Judge spoke on it today and didn’t frame it with the same sort of finality. He said it will likely require “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career, per Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News.
Judge still said that he’s feeling good, so it doesn’t appear there’s real cause for concern in the immediate future. Nonetheless, it’s something that could be worth watching going forward. Judge is turning 32 years old in April and it slated to become an everyday center fielder this year, with Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo in the corners. Judge may get the occasional day as the designated hitter, with Trent Grisham taking over in center, but it still figures to be a notable jump in terms of work.
In 2022, Judge got into 78 games as a center fielder and logged 632 2/3 innings at the position, with both of those currently standing as his career highs. Assuming he avoids the injured list this year, he should easily blow past both figures. His career marks have been passable at the position, especially considering his minimal experience there, with three Outs Above Average, -1 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of -0.4 from Ultimate Zone Rating.
Maintaining those average-ish marks over a larger sample of playing time will something of a challenge. He’ll also be doing so while trying to work against the natural aging curve that generally comes for players as they push towards their mid-30s and trying to keep the toe thing at bay. It’s a lot of minor things but they could perhaps add up over time, with Judge having eight years left on his contract. Last season’s results were nothing to worry about, however. After coming off the IL in late July, Judge hit .245/.408/.557 over the remainder of the season for a wRC+ of 164.
Elsewhere in Yankee news, right-hander Clay Holmes tells Joel Sherman of The New York Post that the club has not yet approached him about an extension. Holmes, 31 next month, is slated to become a free agent at the end of this year.
Over the past two years, Holmes has established himself as the club’s primary closer, racking up 44 saves over those two campaigns. He’s thrown 126 2/3 innings in that time, allowing 2.70 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 26.1% of batters faced and given out walks at an 8.2% clip while, most impressively, keeping 70.6% of balls in play on the ground. That’s the best grounder rate in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched over the last two years.
Keeping that kind of production around beyond the upcoming season is surely appealing, especially for a Yankee club that is known to favor ground ball specialists. But since he’s so close to the open market, the Yanks would likely have to pay something close to free agent prices in order to get him to sign.
Perhaps the club feels they can find the next Holmes another way. As Sherman points out, Holmes didn’t have a huge track record at the time the Yankees acquired him. He had a 5.57 career ERA when the Yanks sent Hoy Park and Diego Castillo to the Pirates to get Holmes, before turning him into a lockdown closer.
But as Sherman also points out, the bullpen is on the cusp of major turnover. Each of Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson are impending free agents. Those four are arguably the club’s top high-leverage guys, leaving a lot of uncertainty going into 2025 and beyond. Bullpens can be fungible and it’s entirely possible the picture is drastically changed by next winter, but there’s a decent chance the Yanks will need to go get someone in free agency.
The club’s payroll will likely be a topic of conversation next winter, as they will likely find themselves paying the competitive balance tax yet again. Roster Resource calculates next year’s CBT number as $190MM, even before factoring in arbitration raises for players like Grisham, Nestor Cortes or Jose Trevino. There’s also Anthony Rizzo‘s $17MM club option to consider, with a $6MM buyout making it a net $11MM decision.
Next year’s base threshold will be $241MM while the Yanks will be looking to replace impending free agents like Soto and Verdugo in their outfield mix. Perhaps they would prefer to keep their powder dry for those pursuits instead of spending on their bullpen ahead of time.
Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach
With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.
Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.
Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.
As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.
As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.
DJ LeMahieu Not On Yankees’ AL Division Series Roster Due To Foot Injury
The Yankees were on a record wins pace early in the season. They hit a midseason lull and tailed off a bit down the stretch, but a strong month of September locked up the AL East title in convincing fashion. Their reward: a first-round bye as the AL’s #2 seed and an ALDS matchup with the Guardians, the Central division champs who dispatched the Rays in two games in their Wild Card round.
Here’s the roster the Yankees will roll out for this set:
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Miguel Castro
- Gerrit Cole (Game 1 starter)
- Domingo German
- Clay Holmes
- Jonathan Loaisiga
- Clarke Schmidt
- Luis Severino (Game 3 starter)
- Jameson Taillon
- Lou Trivino
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Nestor Cortes (Game2 starter)
- Lucas Luetge
- Wandy Peralta
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Designated Hitter
Injuries are much of the story for New York. Notably, infielder DJ LeMahieu is not on the roster, as he continues to battle a right foot injury. The veteran hitter was reinstated from the injured list on September 30 after missing three weeks with toe inflammation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that LeMahieu has a fracture in his foot/toe area that inhibits his ability to swing. While the Yankees aren’t ruling him out for the entirety of the postseason, he won’t be an option for this series and could be sidelined even if New York advances.
In LeMahieu’s place, the Yankees welcome back Matt Carpenter from the 60-day injured list. Carpenter has been out since the second week of August with a foot fracture of his own, his occurring after fouling a ball off his foot. While the 36-year-old hasn’t played in a game since the injury, he has taken live batting practice in recent days. Manager Aaron Boone informed reporters this afternoon he’s likely to deploy Carpenter as a left-handed bench bat but didn’t entirely rule out the possibility he sees some defensive action (Twitter link via Yankees Videos). Signed to a major league deal after being granted his release from a minor league pact with Texas in May, Carpenter ranked at a .305/.412/.727 clip in 47 games before going down.
There’s also a fair bit of intrigue in the bullpen. It was surprisingly revealed this morning that Scott Effross would require Tommy John surgery. He’s of course not on the roster, while Aroldis Chapman has been left off after missing a team workout last week. Boone told reporters that Chapman has been throwing in Miami over the past few days but “for now, he’s staying away” from the team (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Clay Holmes is on the roster after not pitching since September 26 due to a shoulder issue.