Cole Ragans

Cole Ragans To Go For Second Opinion On Injured Shoulder

By Anthony Franco | June 12, 2025 at 9:59pm CDT

It seems the Royals will be without Cole Ragans for a while. Manager Matt Quatraro tells Anne Rogers of MLB.com that the lefty will go for a second opinion on his ailing shoulder next week. Kansas City placed Ragans on the 15-day injured list with a rotator cuff strain yesterday. Quatraro indicated that the team does not expect the issue will require surgery but suggested that Ragans will be shut down from throwing for a decent amount of time.

It’s the second injured list stint of the season for the All-Star lefty. Ragans missed a few weeks between late May and early June with a groin strain. He returned for one start and was tagged for five runs in three innings against St. Louis on June 5. Ragans didn’t feel right during his between-starts routine, leading to the testing that revealed the rotator cuff strain. He’ll surely miss more time with this injury than he did for the groin.

The Royals will operate with a five-man starting staff comprising Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen and rookie Noah Cameron. It’s still a good group overall, but it’s obviously far better when Ragans is at full strength. He finished fourth in Cy Young balloting while recording 223 strikeouts over 32 starts a season ago. While he was on an even better strikeout pace this season, an unsustainably high .382 average on balls in play had led to an earned run average north of 5.00.

Kansas City will have a better idea of Ragans’ timetable next week. It’s hard to envision him returning before the All-Star Break. The front office is unlikely to pour many resources into the rotation even if Ragans is out into or beyond the end of July.

A top three of Lugo, Bubic and Wacha remains excellent. Cameron pitched well over his first five MLB starts before the Yankees knocked him around on Tuesday. Lorenzen has been up-and-down but is generally a serviceable fifth starter. Kyle Wright has made four rehab starts and might not be far away from his team debut; he could work in long relief or push Lorenzen or Cameron for the final rotation spot. Improving a punchless bottom half of the lineup figures to be the top priority if the Royals — who have dropped below .500 after being swept by the Yankees — remain close enough to contention to add.

Royals Place Cole Ragans On IL With Rotator Cuff Strain

By Darragh McDonald | June 11, 2025 at 3:10pm CDT

The Royals announced a series of roster moves today. Right-hander Lucas Erceg has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list and righty Jonathan Bowlan has been recalled from Triple-A Omaha. In corresponding moves, right-hander Trevor Richards has been designated for assignment while lefty Cole Ragans has been placed on the 15-day IL due to a left rotator cuff strain, retroactive to June 8th.

The Royals have not yet announced how long they expect Ragans to be out of action but it’s obviously a concern whenever a pitcher’s throwing shoulder is injured. It’s also the second IL stint for Ragans in as many months. A left groin strain sent him to the shelf in mid-May. He just came off the IL recently and started on Thursday. His velocity was down a bit and his results weren’t great but that wasn’t necessarily alarming since it was his first start in three weeks due to the groin injury.

Now it’s possible there’s a more serious issue at play, which could be awful news for the Royals. Ragans had a tremendous breakout last year, posting a 3.14 earned run average over 186 1/3 innings. His ERA has jumped to 5.18 this year, though all signs point to that being bad luck. His 36.4% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate are both improvements over last year’s 29.3% and 8.8% figures. This year’s .382 batting average on balls in play and 62.1% strand rate are both on the unfortunate side, which is why his 2.40 FIP and 2.46 SIERA suggest he’s actually been pitching better than last year.

For the Royals, they started strong but have been in a bit of a skid lately. From May 10th to the present, they have gone 10-17, dropping them out of playoff position. Pulling out of that skid will be a little more difficult without Ragans in the mix.

What will be working in the club’s favor is that they should still have a strong rotation even without Ragans. The club has a collective 3.32 ERA from their starters this year, one of the top five marks in the majors. Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen are a fine quartet. Rookie Noah Cameron was recently called up while Ragans and Lugo were both on the IL. He has decent numbers through six starts, although he was just torched by the Yankees in his most recent outing. Kyle Wright is also on a rehab assignment and could rejoin the club shortly. Veteran Rich Hill is also in the system on a minor league deal, though he could opt-out of that deal in a few days.

One thing that will also help the Royals is that their bullpen gets Erceg back. He was dealing with a lower back strain in late May and landed on the IL because of it. He has a 1.96 ERA on the year while working as the primary setup guy to closer Carlos Estévez and can continue building on that performance after a brief rest period.

Richards, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Royals last month and was only added to the roster a few days ago. He tossed three innings over three appearances but allowed four earned runs while recording just two strikeouts. He issued two walks and three wild pitches.

As a veteran with years of experience, Richards can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent, so he’s been bumped off the 40-man entirely. He’ll likely end up on waivers in the coming days and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him clear.

He has had some good results at times in his career but struggled late last year, which is why he had to settle for minor league deals this year. In Triple-A with the Cubs and Royals, he has a 4.19 ERA this year, giving out walks at a 13.3% clip with three wild pitches. After being traded from the Jays to the Twins at last year’s deadline, he walked 11 batters, an 18.6% clip. He also hit another couple of opponents and threw seven wild pitches. He was passed through waivers late in the year and hasn’t gotten on a better track here in 2025.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

Royals Outright Thomas Hatch

By Steve Adams | June 9, 2025 at 9:11pm CDT

TODAY: Hatch cleared waivers and was outrighted to the Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, as per the righty’s MLB.com profile page.

JUNE 5: Between games of today’s doubleheader, the Royals made a roster move. Left-hander Cole Ragans, the scheduled starter for the second game, has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Thomas Hatch has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. The club’s 40-man roster count drops from 40 to 39.

Hatch was only added to the 40-man roster earlier this morning. The Royals wound up using five relievers to cover three innings, but Hatch wasn’t among them. He was always going to be a relatively short-term addition, though it’s not clear whether a turnaround this quick was the plan or whether yet another sensational start from rookie Noah Cameron forced the team’s hand. Cameron today became the second pitcher in MLB history to pitch at least six innings and allow one or fewer runs in the first five starts of his big league career, joining the late Fernando Valenzuela in that regard (stat via Sarah Langs and the MLB Network research department).

The 30-year-old Hatch signed a minor league deal with Kansas City over the winter. He’s appeared in parts of four big league seasons (not including today) and pitched 69 innings with a 4.96 ERA, a 19.7% strikeout rate, a 10.7% walk rate and a 46.9% grounder rate. He’s also spent time in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and looked to be headed to the Korea Baseball Organization this past offseason, before concerns surrounding his physical exam caused the Doosan Bears to void their one-year deal.

Health hasn’t been an issue for Hatch in 2025, even with that offseason medical snag. He’s started 10 games for the Royals’ Triple-A squad in Omaha and pitched to a 4.59 ERA with slightly below average strikeout marks (20.8%) and solid command (8.6% walk rate). Hatch was torched for eight runs in one start back on April 15 but has since rattled off seven starts with a 3.68 ERA.

Now that he’s been designated for assignment, Hatch will be traded or placed on waivers within five days. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so his DFA will be resolved in a maximum of one week. If he clears waivers, he’ll stick with the Royals as a depth option, given that he lacks the requisite three years of MLB service or prior outright assignment to reject in favor of free agency. Hatch will collect big league service time and pay for his quick promotion today and for however long he’s in DFA limbo, so even he’s immediately placed on waivers and clears, he’ll still add three days of service and more than $12,500 in pay without throwing a pitch — not a bad few days.

Royals Place Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | May 17, 2025 at 1:18pm CDT

The Royals announced that two of their top starters are heading to the 15-day injured list. Cole Ragans has been sidelined due to a left groin strain, while Seth Lugo (whose placement is retroactive to May 14) is dealing with a sprained middle finger on his throwing hand. Left-hander Noah Cameron was called up from Triple-A and will start today’s game against the Cardinals, and fellow southpaw Evan Sisk has also been called up in a corresponding move.

Neither IL placement comes as a big surprise, as it was already known that Cameron would be making a spot start in what was initially Lugo’s regular turn in the rotation today. Lugo’s finger issue was initially described as inflammation, and it arose in his last outing on May 11. The official diagnosis of a sprain indicates that a scan revealed something beyond just soreness, so while the original plan was just for Lugo to miss one start, the veteran right-hander will now get at least 15 days of rest and recuperation.

Ragans had one of his own starts skipped a few weeks ago due to a groin strain, and he left during the sixth inning of yesterday’s game with St. Louis due to a similar groin issue. Ragans will now also head to the IL in order to hopefully put this injury behind him, and the nagging groin problem could explain why Ragans has a 7.20 ERA (eight earned runs over 10 innings) in his last two starts.

It has been an unusual season for Ragans, who is pitching much better than his 4.53 ERA would indicate. An inflated .376 BABIP is the biggest culprit behind Ragans’ lack of bottom-line success, as his 37.7% strikeout rate is among the game’s best, and his 6.8% walk rate is also solidly above the league average. With a 2.28 SIERA and a .249 xwOBA, the advanced metrics indicate that Ragans is actually pitching better than he did in 2024, when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Lugo was the runner-up in last year’s AL Cy voting, after posting a 3.00 ERA over 206 2/3 innings with Kansas City. In something of the reverse of Ragans, Lugo has been outperforming his secondary numbers in both 2024-25, and he has a cumulative 3.01 ERA over the two seasons but a more modest 4.00 SIERA. Lugo’s lack of strikeouts and his tendency to allow hard contact may not impress the Statcast crew, but his strong control and elite curveball spin rate has allowed him to achieve quite a bit of success over his two seasons with the Royals.

Cameron made his MLB debut earlier this season and was brilliant in his lone start, tossing 6 1/3 shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Rays on April 30. He’ll get another chance to display his stuff both today and likely throughout at least the end of May, as Cameron is the logical choice to fill one of the two spots that have suddenly opened up in the K.C. rotation.

There aren’t many teams that could easily handle losing two starters at the same time, and the Royals’ depth has been further thinned since Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright are also both still on the IL. Rich Hill was signed to a minors deal earlier this week, but Hill is only just starting to properly ramp up and won’t be game-ready for a while. At the Triple-A level, prospect Luinder Avila could be called up for his own MLB debut, or Thomas Hatch could be called if the Royals opened up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kansas City’s rotation has been one of the best in baseball this year, between the contributions of Ragans, Lugo, Michael Wacha, Michael Lorenzen, and Kris Bubic. This excellent pitching staff has helped the Royals keep pace in the crowded AL Central despite some very inconsistent hitting, so K.C. will now need both better offense and some reinforcements from beyond the starting five to keep from slipping back in the playoff race.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Ragans, Castro, Meadows

By Mark Polishuk | May 17, 2025 at 8:59am CDT

Seth Lugo was scratched from a scheduled start today against the Cardinals, as the Royals right-hander is battling inflammation in the middle finger of his throwing hand. The hope is that Lugo will be out for just one turn in the rotation, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star) though “we are in the very early stages of it and we are going to see how [Lugo] responds” to the extra rest. Last season’s AL Cy Young Award runner-up is having another good year with a 3.02 ERA over 56 2/3 innings, though Lugo’s 4.26 SIERA and his Statcast metrics aren’t nearly as flattering.

It was just a few weeks ago that the Royals skipped a Cole Ragans start due to a minor groin strain for the southpaw, but while Ragans was able to avoid the injured list at the time, his nagging injury continues to be a concern. Ragans left during the sixth inning of yesterday’s game due to left groin tightness, though Quatraro described the removal as somewhat preventative. Rookie Noah Cameron will be recalled from Triple-A to start today’s game in Lugo’s place, and Cameron might well be in line for an extended look in the majors if one or both of Lugo or Ragans ultimately require a 15-day IL stint to fully heal up.

Royals Recall Noah Cameron For MLB Debut

By Anthony Franco | April 30, 2025 at 10:00am CDT

April 30: The Royals have formally announced Cameron’s recall from Omaha. They’ve also reinstated infielder Tyler Tolbert from the bereavement list. Righty Jonathan Bowlan and infielder Nick Loftin were optioned to Triple-A in a pair of corresponding moves.

April 29: Left-hander Noah Cameron is listed as the Royals’ probable starter for Wednesday evening’s game against the Rays. He’ll go opposite Drew Rasmussen in his major league debut. Cameron was added to the 40-man roster last November, but Kansas City will need to recall him while making a corresponding active roster move involving a pitcher.

This would have been Cole Ragans’ turn through the starting five. The star southpaw was pulled early from his most recent start with left groin tightness. He’s evidently not ready to go on normal rest, but the Royals haven’t placed him on the injured list. Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports that the team is optimistic that Ragans will not require an IL stint. He’s scheduled for a bullpen session in the coming days and could start one of the games during the weekend series against the Orioles.

The delay opens the opportunity for Cameron’s first major league call. The 6’3″ lefty was a seventh-round pick in 2021. He hadn’t pitched during his draft year at the University of Central Arkansas because of Tommy John surgery. Cameron has impressed since entering professional ball, emerging as one of the team’s better pitching prospects in the process. Baseball America ranked him eighth overall in the K.C. system during the offseason. BA credits Cameron with a plus changeup as the headliner of a solid, if not overpowering, four-pitch arsenal.

Cameron doesn’t have huge velocity. His fastball averaged 92 MPH during his Triple-A work last year. It’s closer to 93 this season. Cameron mixes his pitches fairly regularly. It has worked against minor league competition. He turned in a 3.08 earned run average with a near-28% strikeout rate between the top two minor league levels last season. He has been similarly effective through five starts with Triple-A Omaha this year. Cameron has fanned 30.3% of opponents while working to a 3.22 ERA across 22 1/3 frames. He has gotten ground-balls at a career-high 58.5% clip.

If Ragans does require an injured list stint, Cameron would probably be the top choice to step into the rotation. Assuming Ragans can avoid the IL, Cameron will likely head back to Omaha after the spot start. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen round out the rotation. The Royals have been without Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright all season. Wright, who missed all of last season rehabbing shoulder surgery, is the closer of that duo to a return. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relays that Wright will begin a minor league rehab stint this week.

Royals Notes: Caglianone, Ragans, Marsh

By Anthony Franco | April 24, 2025 at 10:08pm CDT

Royals top prospect Jac Caglianone is playing right field for Double-A Northwest Arkansas tonight. It’s the first career outfield work for the lefty power hitter, who had played exclusively first base since being drafted with the #6 overall pick last summer. Caglianone had been a two-way star at the University of Florida, but his only defensive work for the Gators also came at first.

It’s an interesting development considering the Royals have (yet again) gotten very little production from their outfield. Kansas City outfielders were hitting .191/.252/.280 going into play on Thursday. They’re second from the bottom in MLB in all three slash stats — ahead of the White Sox in batting average and slugging, while leading the Braves in on-base percentage. They’re tied for the major league low with four home runs.

That’s not a new problem. MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote about the Royals’ longstanding outfield woes in a post for Front Office subscribers last May. In the nearly full calendar year since then, their outfield has hit .225/.282/.364 in more than 1700 plate appearances. GM JJ Picollo acknowledged in February the front office was disappointed they were unable to land a significant upgrade during the offseason.

The Royals ran an Opening Day outfield of MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe for the second straight season. They shook things up by optioning Melendez last week. Drew Waters has drawn into the lineup instead. He’s playing well in a tiny sample, but he’s a career .233/.307/.400 hitter who has fanned in a third of his big league plate appearances. Renfroe has followed last year’s .229/.297/.392 showing with a dismal .164/.258/.200 slash through 62 trips to the dish.

Caglianone topped 30 home runs in each of his final two seasons at Florida. He struggled over 29 High-A games after the draft, but he’s out to a much stronger start this season. He owns a .300/.374/.529 line with four homers and doubles apiece at Double-A. If he’s not quite on the radar for a major league call yet, a midseason promotion isn’t far-fetched. College hitters selected in the upper half of the first round often reach the big leagues during their first full professional season. Two such players, Cam Smith and Nick Kurtz, are already in the majors.

The path would be a lot cleaner if Caglianone can play a passable right field. Vinnie Pasquantino is the everyday first baseman. While they don’t have a set DH, Salvador Perez sees a good amount of time there to keep him in the lineup when he’s not catching. Caglianone could run his fastball into the upper 90s as a pitcher, so he certainly has the arm strength. The far bigger question is whether he’s mobile enough to play anywhere other than first. He’s listed at 6’5″, 250 pounds and unsurprisingly grades as a below-average runner on scouting reports. It appears the Royals will at least gauge his outfield ability in the minors.

In more immediate news, the team is awaiting word on Cole Ragans. The star left-hander came out of this afternoon’s start after three innings, during which he allowed four runs to Colorado. Anne Rogers of MLB.com writes that Ragans was hampered by left groin tightness and will go for further testing tomorrow.

The Royals have used a rotation comprising Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Michael Lorenzen all year. Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh could have pushed Lorenzen for the fifth starter spot, but they each opened the season on the injured list. Marsh has battled shoulder soreness dating back to the offseason. He was shut back down a few weeks ago after suffering renewed discomfort, but skipper Matt Quatraro told reporters that he’ll restart a throwing program tomorrow (link via The Associated Press).

Royals Sign Cole Ragans To Three-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2025 at 7:50pm CDT

The Royals are in agreement with ace Cole Ragans on a three-year, $13.25MM deal that covers this season and his first two years of arbitration eligibility, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The signing does not impact Kansas City’s window of team control. Ragans, a Wasserman client, remains controllable through the end of 2028.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports the specific breakdown. Ragans receives a $250K signing bonus and a $1MM salary for the upcoming season. He’ll make $4.5MM and $7.5MM for the following two seasons and would escalate his ’27 salary to $8MM if he wins the Cy Young in either of the next two years.

Ragans has a little over two years of major league service. He did not reach the cutoff necessary to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player. He would have played the upcoming season on a salary around the $760K league minimum before reaching arbitration next winter. This gives him a modest bump this year while allowing the Royals to lock in his earnings over what would have been his first two arbitration seasons. Barring another extension, he’ll go through the arbitration process one time during the 2027-28 offseason before hitting the open market.

Acquired from the Rangers in June ’23 for Aroldis Chapman, Ragans has blossomed into one of the sport’s top pitchers. He turned in a 2.64 earned run average over 12 starts after the trade. That came against a run of mostly soft competition, but the 6’4″ southpaw put to rest any questions about whether that was an aberration. He took a full 32 starts and posted a 3.14 ERA across 186 1/3 frames last year. He ranked fifth in MLB with 223 strikeouts and earned a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting.

It’s an unconventional extension, as there’s little precedent for a player signing for two or three years in advance of their final pre-arbitration season. Ragans’ future salaries fall mostly in line with what quality starting pitchers can expect to earn in their first two trips through arbitration. As comparison points, Tanner Houck ($3.95MM) and George Kirby ($4.3MM) agreed to slightly less than $4.5MM for their first arbitration seasons this winter. Logan Gilbert is ticketed for a $7.625MM salary in his second trip through the process.

Ragans wasn’t at risk of being non-tendered barring a catastrophic injury, but he’ll lock in some security over the next couple seasons. The Royals have more clarity on their future budgets without running the risk of going to a hearing with their ace in either of the upcoming two offseasons. Having recently turned 27, Ragans is on track to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign.

Image courtesy of Imagn

How Cole Ragans Built On His Breakout Season

By Mark Polishuk | October 14, 2024 at 9:38pm CDT

After losing 106 games in 2023, the Royals responded to the embarrassing result by going on a relative spending spree last winter. Bobby Witt Jr.’s 11-year, $288.78MM extension naturally drew most of the attention, but Kansas City spent $110.5MM on free agent contracts, most notably bringing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to bolster the pitching staff. The strategy paid off handsomely, as the Royals rebounded for their first winning record and playoff berth since 2015.

Not content to just make the postseason, K.C. defeated the Orioles in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS. This playoff run provided a bit of a national showcase for Cole Ragans, who had a sterling 0.90 ERA in 10 innings and two postseason starts.

Witt’s MVP-level performance, Salvador Perez’s strong bounce-back year, and the immediate impact of Lugo and Wacha rightly drew a lot of credit for the Royals’ success, yet they also somewhat overshadowed Ragans’ continued excellence since coming to the Royals in June 2023. Continuing the “under the radar” theme, Ragans’ season would be drawing a lot of Cy Young Award buzz if Tarik Skubal wasn’t such a heavy favorite for the trophy. In fact, Skubal is the only AL pitcher who had a higher fWAR than Ragans, and only Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler topped Ragans among the National League’s arms.

Ragans posted a 3.14 ERA over 186 1/3 innings, and his 29.3% strikeout rate and 31.8% whiff rate both ranked in at least the 88th percentile of all pitchers. Ragans did a good job of limiting hard contact and avoiding home runs, which couldn’t be entirely attributed to pitching at Kauffman Stadium — the left-hander’s road ERA (2.87) was actually better than his home ERA (3.40). A below-average 8.8% walk rate was the only real flaw in Ragans’ arsenal, though he at least improved on his 10.5% walk rate from the 2023 season.

The changeup has been Ragans’ most consistently solid pitch over his three MLB seasons, and batters only hit .183 against the offspeed offering in 2024. The big difference in arsenal this season, however, was that Ragans started to more fully capitalize on his 95.4mph fastball’s elite spin rate. Ragans’ fastball was ranked by Statcast as a below-average pitch in 2022 and 2023, but adding about 1.2 inches of vertical break on the pitch from 2023 to 2024 seemed to unlock something special, as his four-seamer was suddenly among the more effective pitches in all of baseball.

This big year only continued the sudden success Ragans enjoyed after he was traded to the Royals (along with outfield prospect Roni Cabrera) from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman in June 2023. Selected 30th overall in the 2016 draft, Ragans’ career was put on hold for the entirety of the 2018-20 seasons due to two Tommy John surgeries and then the canceled 2020 minor league season. He pitched well enough after his return to action to eventually earn his first MLB call-up in 2022, and Ragans had a 4.95 ERA over nine starts and 40 innings for Texas in his rookie season.

Working out of the bullpen in 2023, Ragans had struggled to a 5.92 ERA in 24 1/3 relief innings at the time of the trade, but the Royals immediately gave him another look in the rotation. As if a switch was flipped, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts and 71 2/3 innings over the remainder of the 2023 campaign, and the Royals suddenly had a rotation building block as a silver lining within their dismal season.

After now a full season of success for Ragans, that Royals/Rangers trade is looking like one of the more impactful win-win deadline deals in recent memory. Calling it a “deadline deal” is perhaps a misnomer since it came a month before the trade deadline, as the Royals were already in sell mode and the Rangers were desperate to shore up their badly struggling relief corps. Teams tend to have higher asking prices in trade talks further in advance of the deadline, yet moving Ragans was a price the Rangers were willing to pay in order to achieve bullpen help as quickly as possible.

While Chapman wasn’t exactly airtight during his time in Arlington, he pitched well enough down the stretch and in the playoffs to help Texas secure its first World Series championship. The “flags fly forever” mantra is a pretty good salve for any regrets the Rangers or their fans might have about letting Ragans go for a rental reliever, while the K.C. organization is undoubtedly thrilled with everything they’ve seen from their new ace.

Ragans turns 27 in December, and still has another full season remaining before reaching salary arbitration. Locking up Ragans to a contract extension would help the Royals get some cost certainty over a pitcher whose ceiling only seems to be rising, plus the rotation could use some solidification since Wacha will surely exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency again. On the flip side, since Ragans is under team control through his age-30 season and already has two Tommy John surgeries on his resume, the Royals might well hold off on any serious extension talks and just go year-by-year with Ragans for now.

Deciding how to best deal with the unexpected windfall of a frontline pitcher is a nice problem for the Royals to have, and in hindsight the Ragans trade was the first sign that K.C. was going to able to rebound from its 106-loss disaster. An inability to develop homegrown pitching prospects stalled the Royals’ rebuild for years, so there is some irony in the fact that the team’s emergence has now been led in part by another team’s seemingly stalled prospect.

Rangers Acquire Aroldis Chapman

By Anthony Franco | June 30, 2023 at 10:59pm CDT

The Rangers made a significant bullpen addition Friday evening, announcing the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman from the Royals. Left-hander Cole Ragans and rookie ball outfielder Roni Cabrera are going to Kansas City.

Chapman had a strong few months in Royal blue. Kansas City signed the seven-time All-Star to a $3.75MM free agent guarantee, buying low after a rough final season in the Bronx. Chapman had posted a 4.46 ERA in his final year with the Yankees and was left off their playoff roster after missing a team workout. He returned to quality high-leverage work after the change of scenery.

The hard-throwing southpaw owns a 2.45 ERA over 29 1/3 innings in 31 appearances. He’s striking out an eye-popping 43.4% of opponents, his highest rate since 2020. Among relievers with 20+ frames, only Orioles closer Félix Bautista is fanning hitters at a better clip. Chapman ranks eighth among that group in whiffs, picking up swinging strikes on 17.8% of his offerings.

Chapman doesn’t throw quite as hard as he had during his days with the Reds, but he’s still the hardest-throwing southpaw in the sport. He’s averaging 99.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball and throwing his slider at an 88.2 MPH clip. Both are up a couple ticks relative to last season’s level, explaining his bounceback in whiffs. Chapman has overpowered hitters from both sides of the plate, holding lefties to a .211 batting average without an extra-base hit and right-handers to a .146 average and .183 slugging mark.

The sole concern with Chapman’s production this season is inconsistent strike-throwing. He has walked 16.4% of opponents, a rate topped by only five relievers with at least 20 innings. It has been a boom-or-bust profile, with nearly three-fifths of hitters going down on strikes or taking a free pass.

Texas rolls the dice on the scattershot control to inject some needed swing-and-miss to the relief corps. Rangers relievers enter play Friday ranked 19th in MLB with a 23.1% strikeout percentage. They’re 24th with a 4.37 ERA. Texas ranks second in rotation ERA and leads the majors in run-scoring. The bullpen stood out as the obvious priority for GM Chris Young and his staff entering trade season, and they’ve started by landing one of the best relievers available.

Chapman joins Will Smith, Josh Sborz and Brock Burke in the high-leverage mix. Sborz and Smith have been excellent, while rookie Grant Anderson is off to a nice start to his MLB career. There’s still room for another addition at the back end, particularly a right-hander.

Texas will certainly further add to the roster over the coming weeks. As an impending free agent reliever, Chapman was never going to require them to dip deep into the farm system. He’s also an affordable pickup; the Rangers assume just under $2MM in remaining salary.

They’ll add a little more in incentives, as Chapman will receive $312,500 for every fifth appearance between 35 and 55 outings. Triggering all those bonuses, as he’s on pace to do, would tack on another $1.563MM. He’d land a matching $312,500 for every fourth game finished between 12 and 40; he has finished nine games thus far.

Those are relatively small margins for an aggressive Texas club. The Rangers are spending just under $201MM on player payroll, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re up to around $224MM in luxury tax obligations, placing them roughly $9MM south of the $233MM base threshold. The Rangers have never paid the competitive balance tax, but owner Ray Davis has signed off on aggressive spending sprees in each of the past two winters to quickly push the club to the top of the AL West.

The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum, one of a handful of teams that are certain to miss the postseason. Kansas City has shown a willingness to sell off pieces early if they’re out of contention. They dealt Carlos Santana to the Mariners around this time last season. Chapman was rumored to be available by early June.

In Ragans, Kansas City got a pitcher they like enough to jump on a Chapman deal a few weeks early. The 25-year-old is an upper level arm who could factor into the rotation this year. The 30th overall pick in the 2016 draft, he has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two seasons.

Ragans made nine starts last year, working to a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings. He has pitched in relief this season, tallying 24 1/3 frames of 5.92 ERA ball out of the bullpen. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that K.C. will send Ragans to Triple-A to build back up as a starter with an eye towards a second-half return to the big leagues.

The 6’4″ southpaw has yet to find MLB success. Alongside the mediocre ERA, he has a below-average 18.2% strikeout rate and slightly elevated 10.7% walk percentage. He owns a solid 3.64 ERA in five minor league seasons, though, striking out 29.6% of opponents along the way. His fastball has averaged a little north of 96 MPH in short stints — well above last year’s 92.1 MPH average speed out of the rotation — and prospect evaluators have long credited him with a potential plus changeup.

Whether Ragans will stick as a starter remains to be seen. Kansas City can give him some runway. The Royals’ rotation ranks 27th with a 5.43 ERA. Ragans is in his first of three minor league option seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason at the earliest. If he develops as hoped, he could work as an affordable back-end starter at Kauffman Stadium in the near future.

Cabrera is much further off. A native of the Dominican Republic, he’s a right-handed hitting outfielder who has spent the past two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He turns 18 next month and won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2026 season. Keith Law of the Athletic writes that Cabrera has some power potential and projects as a corner outfielder.

This evening’s swap is the start of what’ll likely be multiple moves of this ilk from both teams. Texas could add more bullpen help and perhaps augment the corner outfield or rotation depth. Kansas City figures to listen to offers on closer Scott Barlow and could take calls on rentals like Zack Greinke and Matt Duffy.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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