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Mets Notes: Alderson, Shortstop, Cuddyer

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The Mets began 2015 with a $103MM payroll, and they will likely pursue their second consecutive NL pennant with a similar Opening Day figure, writes Marc Carig of Newsday. In lieu of splashy acquisitions, GM Sandy Alderson will have to carefully tweak the current roster. Free agents Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy are expected to sign elsewhere which could create a need for more offense. The team could try trading pitcher Zack Wheeler, as they attempted in the nixed Carlos Gomez deal. Carig runs down the club’s various needs and potential solutions in detail. In addition to offense, shortstop, second base, and reliever top the list.

  • If they feel the need to acquire a shortstop, the Mets should consider trading for Javier Baez of Jurickson Profar, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman notes that Mets shortstops – namely Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada – led New York to the 10th best shortstop WAR. While the fans have long asked for an upgrade at the position, statistics suggest it’s unnecessary. However, with the influx of top prospects at shortstop, there is a growing sentiment that a first division club should have a young stud at the position. Baez has well-known strikeout problems, but they’re the only thing between him and All Star quality production. Profar was once as hyped as Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor, but he’s missed a couple seasons with a shoulder injury. For what it’s worth, I think the Mets are well served with by their current cost effective options. They should focus their resources on more gaping wounds like second base or a cleanup hitter.
  • Outfielder Michael Cuddyer had surgery on Thursday for a core muscle injury, reports Carig. Cuddyer struggled in the first season of a two-year, $21MM contract. The team also forfeited a draft pick to ink him. Cuddyer, owed $12.5MM in 2016, could see a reduced role in 2016. Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson are expected to man the outfield corners with Lucas Duda at first base. Since all three are left-handed, he should at least have a regular platoon role. It’s also possible the Mets will view him as a trade candidate.

Rockies Have Considered Signing Daniel Murphy

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The Rockies have considered the possibility of signing Daniel Murphy to play first base, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The Mets did, of course, extend Murphy a qualifying offer. The Rockies’ top pick — fourth overall — is protected, although they would have to give up their Comp Round A pick he rejects the qualifying offer and they sign him.

The timeline of the Rockies’ interest in Murphy is unclear, but if they’ve seriously considered signing him, it’s possible they could be planning to make a surprising impact this winter. Murphy doesn’t figure to be cheap — MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts he’ll get four years and $56MM. The market at first is rather thin, though, and Murphy does figure to be less expensive than the top first base option, Chris Davis, who should get at least twice as much. Korean slugger Byung-ho Park is another possibility, although it’s not yet clear which team won the rights to negotiate with him.

The Rockies headed into 2015 with Justin Morneau topping their depth chart at first base, but they declined their mutual option on him after he hit .310/.363/.458 in 49 games but struggled to stay healthy. Ben Paulsen ended up playing at first for much of the year, but the Rockies’ interest in Murphy suggests they won’t be wedded to Paulsen as their starting first baseman.

Murphy, of course, figures to draw interest from any number of teams, many of whom want him to play second or third, where his bat will have a greater impact. (The average first baseman last year hit .259/.336/.444, not significantly worse than Murphy’s .281/.322/.449, although Murphy did hit in a tough home park.) It will be interesting to see whether the Rockies are willing to pay a premium for Murphy’s bat (and postseason heroics) when other teams might be able to get better value from him by having him play elsewhere on the diamond.

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

  • The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
  • The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

  • Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
  • The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
  • The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
  • As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Mets Notes: Cespedes, Murphy, Johnson, Reed, d’Arnaud, Blevins

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While the scorching post-trade production of Yoenis Cespedes had many Mets fans hoping the team would be able to find a way to re-sign him. However, a team official tells ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin that while the Mets will embark on a modest pursuit of Cespedes once he hits the open market, it’s highly likely that the slugger will sign elsewhere this winter. Cespedes hit a strong .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers in 249 plate appearances for the Mets, but a shoulder injury slowed his production late in the season, as did a fastball to the left hand in a Sept. 30 at-bat against the Phillies. Slow finish aside, Cespedes probably still has a six-year deal awaiting him on the open market, and it’s tough to see the Mets outbidding the rest of the field based on their history in free agency.

A few more notes pertaining to the NL Champs…

  • Daniel Murphy professed how much he’s enjoyed being a member of the Mets to Newsday’s Marc Carig, but the team isn’t likely to match the four-year offers he’s expected to command on the open market, Carig writes. The Mets do feel that Murphy has fundamentally improved as a hitter, he continues, but with a possible long-term option in Dilson Herrera, Murphy is expected to depart. Sources tell Carig that the Mets could look to re-sign Kelly Johnson to serve as a bridge to Herrera, though, especially since Johnson could spell David Wright at third base on occasion.
  • Rubin tweets that it “sounds like” the Mets will retain Addison Reed via arbitration this winter and deploy him in a setup capacity next year. Reed is projected by MLBTR to earn $5.7MM in arbitration, though Rubin’s tweet seems to indicate that the Mets are comfortable with that range. He notes that the team still could use an additional late-inning arm.
  • There’s a “growing thought” within the organization that it would be beneficial for Travis d’Arnaud to learn a second position to expand his versatility, Carig tweets. I’d imagine that would entail corner outfield or first base, though d’Arnaud has virtually no experience at either position. There was some talk in 2014 and earlier this season about d’Arnaud getting some reps in left field, and it seems that conversation could again resurface.
  • Carig also tweets that of all the Mets’ free agents, Johnson and left-hander Jerry Blevins are the only two that are “expected” to return. Blevins tossed just four innings for the Mets this year before suffering a fractured arm on a come-back line drive to the mound. He was working his way through rehab when he slipped and fell off a curb, re-fracturing in the arm and resulting in surgery. GM Sandy Alderson picked up Blevins in exchange for outfielder Matt den Dekker last spring and saw the lefty retire the first 15 batters he faced before suffering the initial injury. With left-handed relief still an area of need and Blevin’s asking price likely on the low side, it makes sense that the Mets would want to bring him back.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo runs down the club’s offseason position by position, noting that the Mets will probably cut ties with twice-suspended Jenrry Mejia this winter and also speculating on Colby Rasmus and Denard Span as potential fits in center field. Either would give Juan Lagares a platoon partner, though I personally wonder if the club would at least consider the possibility of running with Span or even Dexter Fowler full-time, then trading Lagares or using him as a fourth outfielder while his yearly salary is still modest. That, of course, is just speculation on my behalf though.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Murphy, Orioles, Yankees, Shapiro

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The coming offseason will tell us quite a but about how Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski values draft picks versus free agents, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. As Bradford points out, Dombrowski never signed a free agent that had rejected a qualifying offer while serving as Tigers’ GM (he did, however, re-sign Victor Martinez, when letting him walk would’ve netted a comp pick), and Boston’s No. 12 overall selection in the 2016 draft is the second-highest unprotected pick, making it that much more difficult to surrender. The Sox will be connected to top pitchers like Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, Hisashi Iwakuma and Wei-Yin Chen, in addition to already having been connected to outfielder Alex Gordon, Bradford notes, but each would require parting with that premium pick.

A few more notes from the AL East…

  • The Orioles like Daniel Murphy and could show interest in him this offseason writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though Kubatko himself admits that it is difficult to see how Murphy fits onto the roster. Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado have Murphy’s two primary positions locked down, although as Kubatko notes, Murphy has experience a first base, and the O’s have the DH spot available as well. Murphy could, conceivably, rotate through those four spots in the lineup, giving Machado and Schoop breathers in the field and serving as insurance in the event of an injury. Nonetheless, he seems like an imperfect fit, or at least one that may not address the club’s top need, which is in the rotation.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that while Darren O’Day might be the likeliest of the Orioles’ impending free agents to return, the chances still aren’t great. O’Day could receive interest as a closer on the open market, Connolly notes, and the O’s showed last winter in letting Andrew Miller walk that they weren’t interested in paying closer money for a pitcher that would function as a setup man for the team. Connolly adds how important O’Day is to Baltimore’s pitching staff from a clubhouse leadership standpoint, though, also pointing to the Royals in highlighting the importance of having a dominant eighth/ninth inning combo at the back of a bullpen.
  • Chad Jennings of the Journal News provides an early offseason checklist for the Yankees, noting that the club has six players on the 60-day disabled list but will only open up four spots via departing free agents. Jennings points out that Sergio Santos (one of the aforementioned 60-day players) is an easy candidate to be removed from the 40-man roster, and Diego Moreno, also on the 60-day DL, could be designated for assignment if the team doesn’t view him as part of the future. Other candidates include Domingo German, Austin Romine, Chris Martin and Andrew Bailey. Jennings also looks at Brendan Ryan’s mutual option and takes a look back at the Yankees’ recent early-November moves, noting that we shouldn’t rule out a few relatively notable transactions in the next couple of weeks.
  • Incoming Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, who will be formally announced at a press conference this afternoon, has a history of trading for unheralded prospects that blossom into stars, writes Sportsnet’s Nick Ashbourne. As Ashbourne points out, Shapiro acquired Coco Crisp, Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley, Corey Kluber and Yan Gomes in various trades despite the fact that none ranked higher than seventh on Baseball America’s pre-season prospect rankings for the organization from which they were acquired. Excluding Brantley, none ranked better than 16th. There were some notable missteps, trading away Brandon Phillips and Chris Archer too soon, but it’s an impressive history nonetheless. Shapiro will, of course, have a significant increase in financial resources with Toronto, but the Jays aren’t the type of team that can fill out its roster solely through spending, so a keen eye for undervalued prospects will be an important trait. Shapiro currently sits atop the Jays’ baseball operations pyramid after GM Alex Anthopoulos stunningly left the team last week, reportedly due to differences with Shapiro and due to the fact that ownership promised Shapiro baseball operations autonomy when hiring him.

Quick Hits: Mattingly, Royals, Mets, Murphy, Sveum

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The Marlins have announced a press conference for tomorrow morning in which they’re expected to introduce manager Don Mattingly, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Mattingly, 54, has agreed to a four-year deal with Miami. The financial terms remain unknown. We profiled the hire more fully last week.

Here’s more from around the league:

  • The Royals and Mets could look different when they meet to open the 2016 season, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Both clubs are expected to lose several key contributors to free agency including Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, Greg Holland, Chris Young, Daniel Murphy, and Yoenis Cespedes. Three of those seven players were midseason mercenary acquisitions, but the Royals organization will certainly feel the loss of Gordon if he signs elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Mets are more likely to extend Murphy a qualifying offer after his huge NLCS performance.
  • Much has been written about the Royals offensive approach, but more credit belongs to hitting coach Dale Sveum, writes David Laurila of FanGraphs. Sveum took over the role last May and transformed the team’s offensive profile. As you might expect, he’s a proponent of aggressive hitting with an emphasis on balls in play. When the Cubs fired Sveum in 2013, Royals manager Ned Yost “waited like two minutes” before offering him a job.
  • The Padres have re-signed pitching coach Darren Balsley, reports MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Balsley was originally hired under Bruce Bochy’s regime and has been with the franchise for 13 seasons. He considered following Bud Black to the Nationals, but he opted to remain in San Diego. “There were a lot of opportunities to go elsewhere, but I let it be known to [general manager A.J. Preller] that this is where I wanted to stay,” Balsley told Brock. The longtime Padres coach explained that while he wasn’t born in San Diego, he was raised in the city and grew up rooting for the team. “I can’t personally think of a better job. My alliance is to the team,” said Balsley. New Padres skipper Andy Green met with Balsley over the weekend, and Balsley explained to Brock that the two meshed quickly.

Free Agent Notes: Lee, Cueto, Gordon, O’Day

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Korean first baseman Dae-ho Lee, who is currently with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, could draw interest from Major League teams if he turns down his 2016 player option, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes (links to Twitter). The right-handed hitter will turn 34 next June, so he’s a good bit older than some other international free agents we’ve heard about, but Lee’s .282/.364/.524 batting line and 31 homers in 2015 are nonetheless impressive. Lee has enough service time that he is exempt from the posting process. In other words, if he turns down the option, he could jump right into a free agent class of first basemen that’s currently headlined by Chris Davis and Korean star Byung-ho Park.

A few more notes on some upcoming free agents…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the postseason’s impact on the price tag for free agents Johnny Cueto, Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, Alex Gordon and Daniel Murphy. Relaying some chatter from executives with whom he’s spoken, Sherman has heard some liken Cueto to James Shields a year ago. Shields hit the open market with higher expectations than the four years and $75MM he ultimately landed, though that, in my eyes, is still too low a price for Cueto, who is younger with a more dominant track record and no qualifying offer attached to his name. More surprising is the lack of support for Gordon, who “could” get to somewhere north of $75MM over five years with the benefit of open-market bidding, Sherman writes. A five-year $75MM contract for Gordon seems to me to be very much on the low end of the spectrum. While others at MLBTR are more bullish on Gordon than I am, I still think he’ll end up much closer to, if not north of $100MM as a free agent. Sherman also suggests a contract in the four-year, $68MM range as a possibility for Zobrist despite his advanced age.
  • Fans shouldn’t be dismissive of recent suggestions that the Red Sox could make a play for Gordon this winter, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Pursuing Gordon is an idea that “has at least been considered” by the Red Sox’ inner circle, he writes, noting that Gordon’s glove would maintain an elite outfield defense in Boston and possibly allow the team to include Jackie Bradley in trade packages.
  • Free agency is looming around the corner and comes with significant ramifications for the Orioles, who could potentially lose Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly. However, Connolly hears that the Orioles have had talks with many of those players, and agent Jeff Borris, who represents O’Day, told Connolly that the conversations he’s had with the Orioles won’t stop even with free agency nearing. “We’ve had ongoing discussions with Baltimore throughout the season and I plan on continuing to have ongoing discussions with Baltimore,” said Borris. “However, time is of the essence because free agency is right around the corner.” 

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

New York Notes: Murphy, Cespedes, Tanaka, Wheeler

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While some have said the Mets to be undecided on whether or not they’ll make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that following a Herculean postseason performance, the Mets are now planning on offering the one-year, $15.8MM sum to their second baseman. Murphy homered in his fifth straight postseason game last night, tying an MLB record, and he figures to have a nice shot at a four-year deal on the open market with or without the offer. The Mets, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer. With Dilson Herrera and Wilmer Flores both in the organization, it still seems unlikely that they’ll make a serious push to re-sign Murphy at full market value. (Mets fans may also be interested in the intro to Heyman’s column, where he breaks down the roster and examines how each member was acquired by either former GM Omar Minaya or present GM Sandy Alderson.)

A few more notes from the Big Apple…

  • From that same piece, Heyman writes that the early belief is that the Yankees won’t be making a run at free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes this offseason. That’s not exactly a surprise considering their full outfield — Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are all under contracts in 2016 — though the possibility that the team could move the final year of Beltran’s contract and pursue outfield upgrades has been kicked around by pundits already. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possibility of moving an outfielder in his Yankees Offseason Outlook.
  • Masahiro Tanaka underwent elbow surgery to remove a bone spur yesterday, and GM Brian Cashman told reporters that the timing of the operation is ideal, as Tanaka’s total rehab process will take about three months (Twitter link via Tyler Kepner of the New York Times). That timeline should give the Yankees’ ace ample time to recover prior to Spring Training of 2016.
  • Another injured New York hurler, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler, is hoping to be ready to return to the big league rotation early next June, he said in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). A returning Wheeler would, theoretically, join Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and/or Jon Niese in an outstanding rotation. Of course, injuries or trades could alter that outlook in the next eight to nine months. Wheeler himself was already said to be involved in trade talks for both Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce in July.

AL East Notes: Chen, Britton, Murphy, Blue Jays

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While many are anticipating that the Orioles will have difficulty in retaining their free agents, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com cautions against simply dismissing the possibility that Baltimore can find a way to retain some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters and Darren O’Day. Of the four, Kubatko considers Chen the least likely to return, but he notes that the O’s had an organizational meeting last Friday which included managing partner Peter Angelos. One source later termed the meeting “productive” when speaking to Kubatko. The MASN scribe also hears from a source that Angelos wants to not only re-sign Chen but also is showing a willingness to add a free agent starter beyond the longtime Baltimore lefty. Of course, Kubatko also points out the possibility that Chen’s demotion to Class-A ball this season — a more or less procedural move that bought the Orioles some time to sort out a roster crunch — strained the relationship between player and team.

From my own vantage point, history hasn’t shown that the Orioles would be willing to spend at the necessary levels to sign Chen. A four-year deal is almost certainly there for him this winter, and he has a case for a fifth season at an annual rate in excess of the $12.5MM on Ubaldo Jimenez’s four-year deal with Baltimore. As Kubtako notes, Baltimore “shocked” many in the industry with that Jimenez contract; either a five-year deal or a significantly larger four-year pact for Chen strikes me as unlikely.

A few more items pertaining to the AL East…

  • Kubatko’s colleague, Steve Melewski, writes that fans who feel the Orioles should try Zach Britton back in the rotation are misguided. Britton would be unable to jump from about 70 innings per season to the 175 to 200 necessary out of the rotation, and more importantly, he’d almost certainly be less effective in the rotation. Moving to a starting role would make it more difficult for Britton to hold his velocity, and hitters would benefit from second and third looks at his incredible sinker. He’d also need to throw more secondary pitches than he presently does, and the move would further weaken a bullpen that will already be an area of need for Baltimore this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy signing with the Yankees is an unlikely scenario but can’t be completely ruled out, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Second base is the Yankees’ most uncertain position on the diamond at present, and while many believe Rob Refsnyder will get a long look next year, Murphy’s swing fits Yankee Stadium well. The Yankees are in the midst of their pro scouting meetings and beginning to plot a course for the offseason, so Murphy’s name figures to at least be mentioned. Feinsand spoke to a pair of sources that estimated Murphy can land a deal similar to Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM contract on the heels of a big postseason performance.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks back on the trade that sent R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. While there were other pieces in the trade, the core of the trade — Dickey for Syndergaard/d’Arnaud — looks excellent for the Mets, in hindsight. Sherman spoke with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who explained the the team had a win-now approach back in that 2012 offseason, with the goal of maximizing the prime years of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard were years from contributing, and Toronto felt it could get four years of control of a win-now pitcher to help its near-term playoff hopes. The Jays also talked to the Rays about James Shields and had interest in free agent Anibal Sanchez at the time, but Tampa Bay didn’t want to move Shields within the division and Sanchez preferred Detroit to Toronto, Sherman adds.
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